Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the Southeast as a pronounced mid-level trough ejects into the MS Valley today. Surface cyclone development should take place over the northern Plains, with the central Plains experiencing low-level moisture return and the central/southern High Plains receiving strong, but modestly dry westerly surface winds behind a cold front. Meanwhile, modestly dry low-level air will meander over the central Appalachians. Overall, quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across the CONUS given the lack of favorably overlapping strong surface winds/low RH over receptive fuels, with no fire weather highlights introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few general thunderstorms may occur over the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked low over ND will move northeastward into Ontario on Thursday, with little change in pressure. A fetch of southerly winds will extend southward across much of the Plains and MS Valley, with modest low-level moistening from eastern TX toward the mid MS Valley. Cooling aloft will accompany the primary embedded wave, moving from the central Plains toward the upper Great Lakes through Friday morning. In terms of ascent, the trajectory of the low will orphan the developing moist sector farther south, as veered/westerly winds just off the surface result in drying and weakening convergence. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms appear most likely roughly from IA into WI during the ahead of the strong midlevel vorticity maximum, with steepening lapse rates supporting lightning within the developing arc of precipitation. Elsewhere, another shortwave trough will move across the CO River Valley and into AZ, providing cooling aloft and aiding isolated weak convection north of the Rim in a weakly unstable environment. ..Jewell.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few general thunderstorms may occur over the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked low over ND will move northeastward into Ontario on Thursday, with little change in pressure. A fetch of southerly winds will extend southward across much of the Plains and MS Valley, with modest low-level moistening from eastern TX toward the mid MS Valley. Cooling aloft will accompany the primary embedded wave, moving from the central Plains toward the upper Great Lakes through Friday morning. In terms of ascent, the trajectory of the low will orphan the developing moist sector farther south, as veered/westerly winds just off the surface result in drying and weakening convergence. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms appear most likely roughly from IA into WI during the ahead of the strong midlevel vorticity maximum, with steepening lapse rates supporting lightning within the developing arc of precipitation. Elsewhere, another shortwave trough will move across the CO River Valley and into AZ, providing cooling aloft and aiding isolated weak convection north of the Rim in a weakly unstable environment. ..Jewell.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few general thunderstorms may occur over the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked low over ND will move northeastward into Ontario on Thursday, with little change in pressure. A fetch of southerly winds will extend southward across much of the Plains and MS Valley, with modest low-level moistening from eastern TX toward the mid MS Valley. Cooling aloft will accompany the primary embedded wave, moving from the central Plains toward the upper Great Lakes through Friday morning. In terms of ascent, the trajectory of the low will orphan the developing moist sector farther south, as veered/westerly winds just off the surface result in drying and weakening convergence. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms appear most likely roughly from IA into WI during the ahead of the strong midlevel vorticity maximum, with steepening lapse rates supporting lightning within the developing arc of precipitation. Elsewhere, another shortwave trough will move across the CO River Valley and into AZ, providing cooling aloft and aiding isolated weak convection north of the Rim in a weakly unstable environment. ..Jewell.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few general thunderstorms may occur over the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked low over ND will move northeastward into Ontario on Thursday, with little change in pressure. A fetch of southerly winds will extend southward across much of the Plains and MS Valley, with modest low-level moistening from eastern TX toward the mid MS Valley. Cooling aloft will accompany the primary embedded wave, moving from the central Plains toward the upper Great Lakes through Friday morning. In terms of ascent, the trajectory of the low will orphan the developing moist sector farther south, as veered/westerly winds just off the surface result in drying and weakening convergence. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms appear most likely roughly from IA into WI during the ahead of the strong midlevel vorticity maximum, with steepening lapse rates supporting lightning within the developing arc of precipitation. Elsewhere, another shortwave trough will move across the CO River Valley and into AZ, providing cooling aloft and aiding isolated weak convection north of the Rim in a weakly unstable environment. ..Jewell.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few general thunderstorms may occur over the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked low over ND will move northeastward into Ontario on Thursday, with little change in pressure. A fetch of southerly winds will extend southward across much of the Plains and MS Valley, with modest low-level moistening from eastern TX toward the mid MS Valley. Cooling aloft will accompany the primary embedded wave, moving from the central Plains toward the upper Great Lakes through Friday morning. In terms of ascent, the trajectory of the low will orphan the developing moist sector farther south, as veered/westerly winds just off the surface result in drying and weakening convergence. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms appear most likely roughly from IA into WI during the ahead of the strong midlevel vorticity maximum, with steepening lapse rates supporting lightning within the developing arc of precipitation. Elsewhere, another shortwave trough will move across the CO River Valley and into AZ, providing cooling aloft and aiding isolated weak convection north of the Rim in a weakly unstable environment. ..Jewell.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Downstream of an intensifying cyclone, mid/upper ridging is in the process of building across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific. To the east of this ridging, a significant short wave trough is already digging offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, and prominent downstream troughing, emerging from the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, continues to accelerate northeastward, inland and through the Southwest. As the central Pacific cyclone continues to deepen and turn north-northeastward, toward the Aleutians, models indicate that the mid/upper ridging will amplify further across the northeastern Pacific today through tonight. It appears that impulse approaching the Pacific coast will continue digging through much of this period, across and inland of the California coast, generally to the west of the Sierra Nevada. The larger-scale downstream troughing is forecast to progress across and east of the Rockies, with one embedded impulse, initially approaching the southern California coast, accelerating east-northeastward across the Southwestern international border vicinity through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity by 12Z Thursday. A preceding impulse, emerging from the Four Corners region, is forecast to accelerate into the northern Great Plains and contribute to significant cyclogenesis across the Dakotas vicinity. ...Great Plains... By late this afternoon, models indicate an elongated area of deepening surface low pressure from the southeastern Canadian Prairies into the southern U.S. Great Plains, with perhaps one embedded low center beginning to migrate northeast of the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. While this will be accompanied by a broad swath of strengthening southerly low-level flow through the day across the southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest, an initially dry low-level environment, not only across much of the Great Plains but also the lower Rio Grande Valley and western Gulf of Mexico, will preclude substantive boundary-layer moistening. Destabilization will further be hampered by cloud cover associated with mid/high-level moisture return off the Pacific, and inhibition associated with a plume of relatively warm and dry lower/mid-tropospheric air overspreading the Great Plains. However, beneath mid-level cooling, and a developing dry slot, across the high plains, models do suggest that steepening lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may become supportive of at least very weak boundary-layer destabilization by late afternoon. It is possible that this could become supportive of widely scattered convective development, which may become capable of producing lightning. Based on forecast soundings, it remains unclear how sustained any individual storms may be, but high resolution model output suggests that potential for weak thunderstorm activity may persist through this evening, near the possible developing surface low track across west central Nebraska through south central South Dakota. ...Pacific Coast and Southwest... The risk for thunderstorms near southern California coastal areas seems likely to diminish by late this morning, as the supporting mid-level cold core shifts inland into the lower Colorado Valley. Beneath the broader mid-level cold pocket overspreading the Four Corners states during the day, the risk for scattered weak thunderstorm development will probably increase through afternoon, as insolation contributes to boundary-layer destabilization. Convection seems likely to wane quickly after sunset, due to both radiational surface cooling and the tendency for warming in mid-levels. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Downstream of an intensifying cyclone, mid/upper ridging is in the process of building across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific. To the east of this ridging, a significant short wave trough is already digging offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, and prominent downstream troughing, emerging from the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, continues to accelerate northeastward, inland and through the Southwest. As the central Pacific cyclone continues to deepen and turn north-northeastward, toward the Aleutians, models indicate that the mid/upper ridging will amplify further across the northeastern Pacific today through tonight. It appears that impulse approaching the Pacific coast will continue digging through much of this period, across and inland of the California coast, generally to the west of the Sierra Nevada. The larger-scale downstream troughing is forecast to progress across and east of the Rockies, with one embedded impulse, initially approaching the southern California coast, accelerating east-northeastward across the Southwestern international border vicinity through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity by 12Z Thursday. A preceding impulse, emerging from the Four Corners region, is forecast to accelerate into the northern Great Plains and contribute to significant cyclogenesis across the Dakotas vicinity. ...Great Plains... By late this afternoon, models indicate an elongated area of deepening surface low pressure from the southeastern Canadian Prairies into the southern U.S. Great Plains, with perhaps one embedded low center beginning to migrate northeast of the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. While this will be accompanied by a broad swath of strengthening southerly low-level flow through the day across the southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest, an initially dry low-level environment, not only across much of the Great Plains but also the lower Rio Grande Valley and western Gulf of Mexico, will preclude substantive boundary-layer moistening. Destabilization will further be hampered by cloud cover associated with mid/high-level moisture return off the Pacific, and inhibition associated with a plume of relatively warm and dry lower/mid-tropospheric air overspreading the Great Plains. However, beneath mid-level cooling, and a developing dry slot, across the high plains, models do suggest that steepening lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may become supportive of at least very weak boundary-layer destabilization by late afternoon. It is possible that this could become supportive of widely scattered convective development, which may become capable of producing lightning. Based on forecast soundings, it remains unclear how sustained any individual storms may be, but high resolution model output suggests that potential for weak thunderstorm activity may persist through this evening, near the possible developing surface low track across west central Nebraska through south central South Dakota. ...Pacific Coast and Southwest... The risk for thunderstorms near southern California coastal areas seems likely to diminish by late this morning, as the supporting mid-level cold core shifts inland into the lower Colorado Valley. Beneath the broader mid-level cold pocket overspreading the Four Corners states during the day, the risk for scattered weak thunderstorm development will probably increase through afternoon, as insolation contributes to boundary-layer destabilization. Convection seems likely to wane quickly after sunset, due to both radiational surface cooling and the tendency for warming in mid-levels. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Downstream of an intensifying cyclone, mid/upper ridging is in the process of building across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific. To the east of this ridging, a significant short wave trough is already digging offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, and prominent downstream troughing, emerging from the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, continues to accelerate northeastward, inland and through the Southwest. As the central Pacific cyclone continues to deepen and turn north-northeastward, toward the Aleutians, models indicate that the mid/upper ridging will amplify further across the northeastern Pacific today through tonight. It appears that impulse approaching the Pacific coast will continue digging through much of this period, across and inland of the California coast, generally to the west of the Sierra Nevada. The larger-scale downstream troughing is forecast to progress across and east of the Rockies, with one embedded impulse, initially approaching the southern California coast, accelerating east-northeastward across the Southwestern international border vicinity through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity by 12Z Thursday. A preceding impulse, emerging from the Four Corners region, is forecast to accelerate into the northern Great Plains and contribute to significant cyclogenesis across the Dakotas vicinity. ...Great Plains... By late this afternoon, models indicate an elongated area of deepening surface low pressure from the southeastern Canadian Prairies into the southern U.S. Great Plains, with perhaps one embedded low center beginning to migrate northeast of the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. While this will be accompanied by a broad swath of strengthening southerly low-level flow through the day across the southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest, an initially dry low-level environment, not only across much of the Great Plains but also the lower Rio Grande Valley and western Gulf of Mexico, will preclude substantive boundary-layer moistening. Destabilization will further be hampered by cloud cover associated with mid/high-level moisture return off the Pacific, and inhibition associated with a plume of relatively warm and dry lower/mid-tropospheric air overspreading the Great Plains. However, beneath mid-level cooling, and a developing dry slot, across the high plains, models do suggest that steepening lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may become supportive of at least very weak boundary-layer destabilization by late afternoon. It is possible that this could become supportive of widely scattered convective development, which may become capable of producing lightning. Based on forecast soundings, it remains unclear how sustained any individual storms may be, but high resolution model output suggests that potential for weak thunderstorm activity may persist through this evening, near the possible developing surface low track across west central Nebraska through south central South Dakota. ...Pacific Coast and Southwest... The risk for thunderstorms near southern California coastal areas seems likely to diminish by late this morning, as the supporting mid-level cold core shifts inland into the lower Colorado Valley. Beneath the broader mid-level cold pocket overspreading the Four Corners states during the day, the risk for scattered weak thunderstorm development will probably increase through afternoon, as insolation contributes to boundary-layer destabilization. Convection seems likely to wane quickly after sunset, due to both radiational surface cooling and the tendency for warming in mid-levels. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Downstream of an intensifying cyclone, mid/upper ridging is in the process of building across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific. To the east of this ridging, a significant short wave trough is already digging offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, and prominent downstream troughing, emerging from the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, continues to accelerate northeastward, inland and through the Southwest. As the central Pacific cyclone continues to deepen and turn north-northeastward, toward the Aleutians, models indicate that the mid/upper ridging will amplify further across the northeastern Pacific today through tonight. It appears that impulse approaching the Pacific coast will continue digging through much of this period, across and inland of the California coast, generally to the west of the Sierra Nevada. The larger-scale downstream troughing is forecast to progress across and east of the Rockies, with one embedded impulse, initially approaching the southern California coast, accelerating east-northeastward across the Southwestern international border vicinity through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity by 12Z Thursday. A preceding impulse, emerging from the Four Corners region, is forecast to accelerate into the northern Great Plains and contribute to significant cyclogenesis across the Dakotas vicinity. ...Great Plains... By late this afternoon, models indicate an elongated area of deepening surface low pressure from the southeastern Canadian Prairies into the southern U.S. Great Plains, with perhaps one embedded low center beginning to migrate northeast of the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. While this will be accompanied by a broad swath of strengthening southerly low-level flow through the day across the southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest, an initially dry low-level environment, not only across much of the Great Plains but also the lower Rio Grande Valley and western Gulf of Mexico, will preclude substantive boundary-layer moistening. Destabilization will further be hampered by cloud cover associated with mid/high-level moisture return off the Pacific, and inhibition associated with a plume of relatively warm and dry lower/mid-tropospheric air overspreading the Great Plains. However, beneath mid-level cooling, and a developing dry slot, across the high plains, models do suggest that steepening lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may become supportive of at least very weak boundary-layer destabilization by late afternoon. It is possible that this could become supportive of widely scattered convective development, which may become capable of producing lightning. Based on forecast soundings, it remains unclear how sustained any individual storms may be, but high resolution model output suggests that potential for weak thunderstorm activity may persist through this evening, near the possible developing surface low track across west central Nebraska through south central South Dakota. ...Pacific Coast and Southwest... The risk for thunderstorms near southern California coastal areas seems likely to diminish by late this morning, as the supporting mid-level cold core shifts inland into the lower Colorado Valley. Beneath the broader mid-level cold pocket overspreading the Four Corners states during the day, the risk for scattered weak thunderstorm development will probably increase through afternoon, as insolation contributes to boundary-layer destabilization. Convection seems likely to wane quickly after sunset, due to both radiational surface cooling and the tendency for warming in mid-levels. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Downstream of an intensifying cyclone, mid/upper ridging is in the process of building across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific. To the east of this ridging, a significant short wave trough is already digging offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, and prominent downstream troughing, emerging from the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, continues to accelerate northeastward, inland and through the Southwest. As the central Pacific cyclone continues to deepen and turn north-northeastward, toward the Aleutians, models indicate that the mid/upper ridging will amplify further across the northeastern Pacific today through tonight. It appears that impulse approaching the Pacific coast will continue digging through much of this period, across and inland of the California coast, generally to the west of the Sierra Nevada. The larger-scale downstream troughing is forecast to progress across and east of the Rockies, with one embedded impulse, initially approaching the southern California coast, accelerating east-northeastward across the Southwestern international border vicinity through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity by 12Z Thursday. A preceding impulse, emerging from the Four Corners region, is forecast to accelerate into the northern Great Plains and contribute to significant cyclogenesis across the Dakotas vicinity. ...Great Plains... By late this afternoon, models indicate an elongated area of deepening surface low pressure from the southeastern Canadian Prairies into the southern U.S. Great Plains, with perhaps one embedded low center beginning to migrate northeast of the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. While this will be accompanied by a broad swath of strengthening southerly low-level flow through the day across the southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest, an initially dry low-level environment, not only across much of the Great Plains but also the lower Rio Grande Valley and western Gulf of Mexico, will preclude substantive boundary-layer moistening. Destabilization will further be hampered by cloud cover associated with mid/high-level moisture return off the Pacific, and inhibition associated with a plume of relatively warm and dry lower/mid-tropospheric air overspreading the Great Plains. However, beneath mid-level cooling, and a developing dry slot, across the high plains, models do suggest that steepening lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may become supportive of at least very weak boundary-layer destabilization by late afternoon. It is possible that this could become supportive of widely scattered convective development, which may become capable of producing lightning. Based on forecast soundings, it remains unclear how sustained any individual storms may be, but high resolution model output suggests that potential for weak thunderstorm activity may persist through this evening, near the possible developing surface low track across west central Nebraska through south central South Dakota. ...Pacific Coast and Southwest... The risk for thunderstorms near southern California coastal areas seems likely to diminish by late this morning, as the supporting mid-level cold core shifts inland into the lower Colorado Valley. Beneath the broader mid-level cold pocket overspreading the Four Corners states during the day, the risk for scattered weak thunderstorm development will probably increase through afternoon, as insolation contributes to boundary-layer destabilization. Convection seems likely to wane quickly after sunset, due to both radiational surface cooling and the tendency for warming in mid-levels. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Downstream of an intensifying cyclone, mid/upper ridging is in the process of building across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific. To the east of this ridging, a significant short wave trough is already digging offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, and prominent downstream troughing, emerging from the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, continues to accelerate northeastward, inland and through the Southwest. As the central Pacific cyclone continues to deepen and turn north-northeastward, toward the Aleutians, models indicate that the mid/upper ridging will amplify further across the northeastern Pacific today through tonight. It appears that impulse approaching the Pacific coast will continue digging through much of this period, across and inland of the California coast, generally to the west of the Sierra Nevada. The larger-scale downstream troughing is forecast to progress across and east of the Rockies, with one embedded impulse, initially approaching the southern California coast, accelerating east-northeastward across the Southwestern international border vicinity through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity by 12Z Thursday. A preceding impulse, emerging from the Four Corners region, is forecast to accelerate into the northern Great Plains and contribute to significant cyclogenesis across the Dakotas vicinity. ...Great Plains... By late this afternoon, models indicate an elongated area of deepening surface low pressure from the southeastern Canadian Prairies into the southern U.S. Great Plains, with perhaps one embedded low center beginning to migrate northeast of the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. While this will be accompanied by a broad swath of strengthening southerly low-level flow through the day across the southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest, an initially dry low-level environment, not only across much of the Great Plains but also the lower Rio Grande Valley and western Gulf of Mexico, will preclude substantive boundary-layer moistening. Destabilization will further be hampered by cloud cover associated with mid/high-level moisture return off the Pacific, and inhibition associated with a plume of relatively warm and dry lower/mid-tropospheric air overspreading the Great Plains. However, beneath mid-level cooling, and a developing dry slot, across the high plains, models do suggest that steepening lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may become supportive of at least very weak boundary-layer destabilization by late afternoon. It is possible that this could become supportive of widely scattered convective development, which may become capable of producing lightning. Based on forecast soundings, it remains unclear how sustained any individual storms may be, but high resolution model output suggests that potential for weak thunderstorm activity may persist through this evening, near the possible developing surface low track across west central Nebraska through south central South Dakota. ...Pacific Coast and Southwest... The risk for thunderstorms near southern California coastal areas seems likely to diminish by late this morning, as the supporting mid-level cold core shifts inland into the lower Colorado Valley. Beneath the broader mid-level cold pocket overspreading the Four Corners states during the day, the risk for scattered weak thunderstorm development will probably increase through afternoon, as insolation contributes to boundary-layer destabilization. Convection seems likely to wane quickly after sunset, due to both radiational surface cooling and the tendency for warming in mid-levels. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. tonight. ...01Z Update... ..Southwest... Convection most productive with regard to lightning has been focused within a narrow band, along a zone of stronger cooling (including temperatures falling below -24 C around 500 mb) associated with mid-level forcing for ascent and cold advection, now overspreading the lower Colorado Valley. Destabilization has probably been supported by modest low-level moisture return from the Gulf of California, and appears sufficient to maintain weak thunderstorm activity into the overnight hours, where substantive forcing for ascent is maintained. Model output is suggestive that this may tend to become focused along the Mogollon Rim by late evening, but it appears the Greater Phoenix area will probably be impacted as well, with diminishing risk for lightning north of the Mogollon Rim and into southeastern Arizona. Otherwise, widely scattered deepening convective cells have supported some recent increase in lightning across parts of the San Joaquin Valley. Additional development may still be possible along the western slopes of the Coastal Ranges north of Santa Barbara, before the loss of daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer stabilization early this evening. Thereafter, model output is suggestive that scattered weak thunderstorm activity remains possible overnight, mainly south of the LA Basin into the San Diego area, aided by forcing for ascent and further cooling aloft, associated with the approach of another weak cyclonic vorticity center. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. tonight. ...01Z Update... ..Southwest... Convection most productive with regard to lightning has been focused within a narrow band, along a zone of stronger cooling (including temperatures falling below -24 C around 500 mb) associated with mid-level forcing for ascent and cold advection, now overspreading the lower Colorado Valley. Destabilization has probably been supported by modest low-level moisture return from the Gulf of California, and appears sufficient to maintain weak thunderstorm activity into the overnight hours, where substantive forcing for ascent is maintained. Model output is suggestive that this may tend to become focused along the Mogollon Rim by late evening, but it appears the Greater Phoenix area will probably be impacted as well, with diminishing risk for lightning north of the Mogollon Rim and into southeastern Arizona. Otherwise, widely scattered deepening convective cells have supported some recent increase in lightning across parts of the San Joaquin Valley. Additional development may still be possible along the western slopes of the Coastal Ranges north of Santa Barbara, before the loss of daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer stabilization early this evening. Thereafter, model output is suggestive that scattered weak thunderstorm activity remains possible overnight, mainly south of the LA Basin into the San Diego area, aided by forcing for ascent and further cooling aloft, associated with the approach of another weak cyclonic vorticity center. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. tonight. ...01Z Update... ..Southwest... Convection most productive with regard to lightning has been focused within a narrow band, along a zone of stronger cooling (including temperatures falling below -24 C around 500 mb) associated with mid-level forcing for ascent and cold advection, now overspreading the lower Colorado Valley. Destabilization has probably been supported by modest low-level moisture return from the Gulf of California, and appears sufficient to maintain weak thunderstorm activity into the overnight hours, where substantive forcing for ascent is maintained. Model output is suggestive that this may tend to become focused along the Mogollon Rim by late evening, but it appears the Greater Phoenix area will probably be impacted as well, with diminishing risk for lightning north of the Mogollon Rim and into southeastern Arizona. Otherwise, widely scattered deepening convective cells have supported some recent increase in lightning across parts of the San Joaquin Valley. Additional development may still be possible along the western slopes of the Coastal Ranges north of Santa Barbara, before the loss of daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer stabilization early this evening. Thereafter, model output is suggestive that scattered weak thunderstorm activity remains possible overnight, mainly south of the LA Basin into the San Diego area, aided by forcing for ascent and further cooling aloft, associated with the approach of another weak cyclonic vorticity center. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 6 22:32:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 6 22:32:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z An active mid-level flow pattern is expected over much of the central and eastern US through the extended forecast period. The first system, departing to the east later this week, will support broad chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures over much of the country. A second trough is forecast to develop this weekend and into early next week supporting another round of cool and wet conditions over central and eastern parts of the US. Given the expected wet and cool pattern, fire-weather chances appear low through the next 7 days. ...Southwest/South TX... Despite the active pattern, parts of southern and southwest TX may remain more sheltered from the cooler and wetter conditions elsewhere. Strong flow aloft from the passing troughs will remain overhead, supporting periodic breezy winds of 10-15 mph. Locally stronger winds may develop coincident with a deepening area of low pressure over eastern MEX and the Gulf Coast late this weekend into early next week. While not overly dry, some potential for low-end fire-weather conditions may develop as a cold front and drier air mass move in from farther north. However, confidence in forecast evolution is low, and fuels are only marginally dry. This suggests that critical fire-weather potential remains too low for any probabilities. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z An active mid-level flow pattern is expected over much of the central and eastern US through the extended forecast period. The first system, departing to the east later this week, will support broad chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures over much of the country. A second trough is forecast to develop this weekend and into early next week supporting another round of cool and wet conditions over central and eastern parts of the US. Given the expected wet and cool pattern, fire-weather chances appear low through the next 7 days. ...Southwest/South TX... Despite the active pattern, parts of southern and southwest TX may remain more sheltered from the cooler and wetter conditions elsewhere. Strong flow aloft from the passing troughs will remain overhead, supporting periodic breezy winds of 10-15 mph. Locally stronger winds may develop coincident with a deepening area of low pressure over eastern MEX and the Gulf Coast late this weekend into early next week. While not overly dry, some potential for low-end fire-weather conditions may develop as a cold front and drier air mass move in from farther north. However, confidence in forecast evolution is low, and fuels are only marginally dry. This suggests that critical fire-weather potential remains too low for any probabilities. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z An active mid-level flow pattern is expected over much of the central and eastern US through the extended forecast period. The first system, departing to the east later this week, will support broad chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures over much of the country. A second trough is forecast to develop this weekend and into early next week supporting another round of cool and wet conditions over central and eastern parts of the US. Given the expected wet and cool pattern, fire-weather chances appear low through the next 7 days. ...Southwest/South TX... Despite the active pattern, parts of southern and southwest TX may remain more sheltered from the cooler and wetter conditions elsewhere. Strong flow aloft from the passing troughs will remain overhead, supporting periodic breezy winds of 10-15 mph. Locally stronger winds may develop coincident with a deepening area of low pressure over eastern MEX and the Gulf Coast late this weekend into early next week. While not overly dry, some potential for low-end fire-weather conditions may develop as a cold front and drier air mass move in from farther north. However, confidence in forecast evolution is low, and fuels are only marginally dry. This suggests that critical fire-weather potential remains too low for any probabilities. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more