Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated/brief tornado will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. Little change was required to the ongoing outlook. A focused area of hail potential will develop over eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon near a warm front. While moisture is a bit meager, very cold temperatures aloft/steep lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear will support a few cells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated/brief tornado will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. Little change was required to the ongoing outlook. A focused area of hail potential will develop over eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon near a warm front. While moisture is a bit meager, very cold temperatures aloft/steep lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear will support a few cells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated/brief tornado will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. Little change was required to the ongoing outlook. A focused area of hail potential will develop over eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon near a warm front. While moisture is a bit meager, very cold temperatures aloft/steep lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear will support a few cells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated/brief tornado will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. Little change was required to the ongoing outlook. A focused area of hail potential will develop over eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon near a warm front. While moisture is a bit meager, very cold temperatures aloft/steep lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear will support a few cells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated/brief tornado will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. Little change was required to the ongoing outlook. A focused area of hail potential will develop over eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon near a warm front. While moisture is a bit meager, very cold temperatures aloft/steep lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear will support a few cells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated/brief tornado will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. Little change was required to the ongoing outlook. A focused area of hail potential will develop over eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon near a warm front. While moisture is a bit meager, very cold temperatures aloft/steep lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear will support a few cells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated/brief tornado will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. Little change was required to the ongoing outlook. A focused area of hail potential will develop over eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon near a warm front. While moisture is a bit meager, very cold temperatures aloft/steep lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear will support a few cells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated/brief tornado will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. Little change was required to the ongoing outlook. A focused area of hail potential will develop over eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon near a warm front. While moisture is a bit meager, very cold temperatures aloft/steep lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear will support a few cells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, though some adjustments were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In particular, the Elevated and Critical highlights were expanded northward/northeastward in parts of eastern CO, western KS, the TX/OK Panhandles, and far northwest OK. Here, guidance has come into good agreement on the overlap of around 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH, warranting the expansion of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday a very strong mid-level jet will move farther east across the southern High Plains ahead of a strong mid-level low. Intense lee cyclogenesis is also expected with a sub-1000mb surface low in eastern Colorado. As a result, windy conditions are expected for much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and central Plains. The greatest winds are expected across the southern High Plains where a deeply mixed airmass will be present and allow stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. In this region, sustained winds of 30+ mph are possible. Some extremely critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are possible, but they should be somewhat localized, and current fuel states do not support an Extremely Critical delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, though some adjustments were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In particular, the Elevated and Critical highlights were expanded northward/northeastward in parts of eastern CO, western KS, the TX/OK Panhandles, and far northwest OK. Here, guidance has come into good agreement on the overlap of around 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH, warranting the expansion of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday a very strong mid-level jet will move farther east across the southern High Plains ahead of a strong mid-level low. Intense lee cyclogenesis is also expected with a sub-1000mb surface low in eastern Colorado. As a result, windy conditions are expected for much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and central Plains. The greatest winds are expected across the southern High Plains where a deeply mixed airmass will be present and allow stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. In this region, sustained winds of 30+ mph are possible. Some extremely critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are possible, but they should be somewhat localized, and current fuel states do not support an Extremely Critical delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, though some adjustments were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In particular, the Elevated and Critical highlights were expanded northward/northeastward in parts of eastern CO, western KS, the TX/OK Panhandles, and far northwest OK. Here, guidance has come into good agreement on the overlap of around 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH, warranting the expansion of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday a very strong mid-level jet will move farther east across the southern High Plains ahead of a strong mid-level low. Intense lee cyclogenesis is also expected with a sub-1000mb surface low in eastern Colorado. As a result, windy conditions are expected for much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and central Plains. The greatest winds are expected across the southern High Plains where a deeply mixed airmass will be present and allow stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. In this region, sustained winds of 30+ mph are possible. Some extremely critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are possible, but they should be somewhat localized, and current fuel states do not support an Extremely Critical delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, though some adjustments were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In particular, the Elevated and Critical highlights were expanded northward/northeastward in parts of eastern CO, western KS, the TX/OK Panhandles, and far northwest OK. Here, guidance has come into good agreement on the overlap of around 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH, warranting the expansion of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday a very strong mid-level jet will move farther east across the southern High Plains ahead of a strong mid-level low. Intense lee cyclogenesis is also expected with a sub-1000mb surface low in eastern Colorado. As a result, windy conditions are expected for much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and central Plains. The greatest winds are expected across the southern High Plains where a deeply mixed airmass will be present and allow stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. In this region, sustained winds of 30+ mph are possible. Some extremely critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are possible, but they should be somewhat localized, and current fuel states do not support an Extremely Critical delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, though some adjustments were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In particular, the Elevated and Critical highlights were expanded northward/northeastward in parts of eastern CO, western KS, the TX/OK Panhandles, and far northwest OK. Here, guidance has come into good agreement on the overlap of around 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH, warranting the expansion of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday a very strong mid-level jet will move farther east across the southern High Plains ahead of a strong mid-level low. Intense lee cyclogenesis is also expected with a sub-1000mb surface low in eastern Colorado. As a result, windy conditions are expected for much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and central Plains. The greatest winds are expected across the southern High Plains where a deeply mixed airmass will be present and allow stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. In this region, sustained winds of 30+ mph are possible. Some extremely critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are possible, but they should be somewhat localized, and current fuel states do not support an Extremely Critical delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, though some adjustments were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In particular, the Elevated and Critical highlights were expanded northward/northeastward in parts of eastern CO, western KS, the TX/OK Panhandles, and far northwest OK. Here, guidance has come into good agreement on the overlap of around 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH, warranting the expansion of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday a very strong mid-level jet will move farther east across the southern High Plains ahead of a strong mid-level low. Intense lee cyclogenesis is also expected with a sub-1000mb surface low in eastern Colorado. As a result, windy conditions are expected for much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and central Plains. The greatest winds are expected across the southern High Plains where a deeply mixed airmass will be present and allow stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. In this region, sustained winds of 30+ mph are possible. Some extremely critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are possible, but they should be somewhat localized, and current fuel states do not support an Extremely Critical delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, though some adjustments were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In particular, the Elevated and Critical highlights were expanded northward/northeastward in parts of eastern CO, western KS, the TX/OK Panhandles, and far northwest OK. Here, guidance has come into good agreement on the overlap of around 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH, warranting the expansion of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday a very strong mid-level jet will move farther east across the southern High Plains ahead of a strong mid-level low. Intense lee cyclogenesis is also expected with a sub-1000mb surface low in eastern Colorado. As a result, windy conditions are expected for much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and central Plains. The greatest winds are expected across the southern High Plains where a deeply mixed airmass will be present and allow stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. In this region, sustained winds of 30+ mph are possible. Some extremely critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are possible, but they should be somewhat localized, and current fuel states do not support an Extremely Critical delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, though some adjustments were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In particular, the Elevated and Critical highlights were expanded northward/northeastward in parts of eastern CO, western KS, the TX/OK Panhandles, and far northwest OK. Here, guidance has come into good agreement on the overlap of around 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH, warranting the expansion of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday a very strong mid-level jet will move farther east across the southern High Plains ahead of a strong mid-level low. Intense lee cyclogenesis is also expected with a sub-1000mb surface low in eastern Colorado. As a result, windy conditions are expected for much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and central Plains. The greatest winds are expected across the southern High Plains where a deeply mixed airmass will be present and allow stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. In this region, sustained winds of 30+ mph are possible. Some extremely critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are possible, but they should be somewhat localized, and current fuel states do not support an Extremely Critical delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, though some adjustments were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In particular, the Elevated and Critical highlights were expanded northward/northeastward in parts of eastern CO, western KS, the TX/OK Panhandles, and far northwest OK. Here, guidance has come into good agreement on the overlap of around 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH, warranting the expansion of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday a very strong mid-level jet will move farther east across the southern High Plains ahead of a strong mid-level low. Intense lee cyclogenesis is also expected with a sub-1000mb surface low in eastern Colorado. As a result, windy conditions are expected for much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and central Plains. The greatest winds are expected across the southern High Plains where a deeply mixed airmass will be present and allow stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. In this region, sustained winds of 30+ mph are possible. Some extremely critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are possible, but they should be somewhat localized, and current fuel states do not support an Extremely Critical delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, though some adjustments were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In particular, the Elevated and Critical highlights were expanded northward/northeastward in parts of eastern CO, western KS, the TX/OK Panhandles, and far northwest OK. Here, guidance has come into good agreement on the overlap of around 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH, warranting the expansion of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday a very strong mid-level jet will move farther east across the southern High Plains ahead of a strong mid-level low. Intense lee cyclogenesis is also expected with a sub-1000mb surface low in eastern Colorado. As a result, windy conditions are expected for much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and central Plains. The greatest winds are expected across the southern High Plains where a deeply mixed airmass will be present and allow stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. In this region, sustained winds of 30+ mph are possible. Some extremely critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are possible, but they should be somewhat localized, and current fuel states do not support an Extremely Critical delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, though some adjustments were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In particular, the Elevated and Critical highlights were expanded northward/northeastward in parts of eastern CO, western KS, the TX/OK Panhandles, and far northwest OK. Here, guidance has come into good agreement on the overlap of around 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH, warranting the expansion of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday a very strong mid-level jet will move farther east across the southern High Plains ahead of a strong mid-level low. Intense lee cyclogenesis is also expected with a sub-1000mb surface low in eastern Colorado. As a result, windy conditions are expected for much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and central Plains. The greatest winds are expected across the southern High Plains where a deeply mixed airmass will be present and allow stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. In this region, sustained winds of 30+ mph are possible. Some extremely critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are possible, but they should be somewhat localized, and current fuel states do not support an Extremely Critical delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts is forecast Sunday through Sunday evening primarily from northern Missouri and central Illinois across central Indiana and far western Ohio. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will exist across much of the West on Sunday, with a broad area of strong southwest flow aloft across much of the Plains and Midwest. Ahead of the advancing trough, gradual height rises will occur over the Mid MS and OH Valleys, while midlevel temperatures remain cool with steep lapse rates. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains, with a warm front extending east from northern MO across IL and IN and into northern KY by late afternoon. A broad fetch of southerly winds will result in warming south of the warm front, with a return of upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints. ...Northern MO across central IL, IN, and far western OH... Early to midday thunderstorms are expected over northern MO and vicinity, on the nose of a low-level jet and where elevated MUCAPE may reach 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings reveal moisture rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, beneath steep midlevel lase rates. Given 40+ kt effective shear, marginal hail may be supported with the early activity. As heating occurs south of the warm front, the ongoing activity and/or new development along the southern flank/outflows may tend to propagate in more of an easterly direction as surface-based inhibition lessens. However, a sharp southern boundary appears likely as a capping inversion remains near 700 mb. As such, it appears that a narrow east-west oriented corridor of large hail and perhaps damaging gust potential will exist, primarily from west-central IL by mid afternoon and continuing into IN through evening. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 Read more