Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the central and eastern CONUS today as a mid-level trough impinges on the Rocky Mountains. Rain and snow accompanying the mid-level trough will continue across California into the Interior West while surface high pressure will encourage relatively weak surface winds atop poorly receptive fuels east of the Rockies. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the central and eastern CONUS today as a mid-level trough impinges on the Rocky Mountains. Rain and snow accompanying the mid-level trough will continue across California into the Interior West while surface high pressure will encourage relatively weak surface winds atop poorly receptive fuels east of the Rockies. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the central and eastern CONUS today as a mid-level trough impinges on the Rocky Mountains. Rain and snow accompanying the mid-level trough will continue across California into the Interior West while surface high pressure will encourage relatively weak surface winds atop poorly receptive fuels east of the Rockies. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today, as a trough continues to exit eastern NOAM into the western Atlantic. Upstream, a second trough near the West Coast this morning will gradually shift eastward toward the Great Basin/Desert Southwest, in tandem with downstream eastward advance of stout ridging over the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will shift eastward across the Southwest through the period, ahead of the advancing upper system. Later this afternoon, daytime heating beneath mid-level cooling/steepening lapse rates will promote weak/low-topped destabilization in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado Valley. Scattered to isolated convective development thus remains apparent. While the kinematic environment -- well within the parameter space supportive of organized convection and thus severe potential -- is noted, the weak/low-topped nature of the anticipated CAPE across this region should limit updraft intensity, and any associated hail/wind risk. As such, have again opted against introduction of a risk area. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today, as a trough continues to exit eastern NOAM into the western Atlantic. Upstream, a second trough near the West Coast this morning will gradually shift eastward toward the Great Basin/Desert Southwest, in tandem with downstream eastward advance of stout ridging over the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will shift eastward across the Southwest through the period, ahead of the advancing upper system. Later this afternoon, daytime heating beneath mid-level cooling/steepening lapse rates will promote weak/low-topped destabilization in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado Valley. Scattered to isolated convective development thus remains apparent. While the kinematic environment -- well within the parameter space supportive of organized convection and thus severe potential -- is noted, the weak/low-topped nature of the anticipated CAPE across this region should limit updraft intensity, and any associated hail/wind risk. As such, have again opted against introduction of a risk area. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today, as a trough continues to exit eastern NOAM into the western Atlantic. Upstream, a second trough near the West Coast this morning will gradually shift eastward toward the Great Basin/Desert Southwest, in tandem with downstream eastward advance of stout ridging over the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will shift eastward across the Southwest through the period, ahead of the advancing upper system. Later this afternoon, daytime heating beneath mid-level cooling/steepening lapse rates will promote weak/low-topped destabilization in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado Valley. Scattered to isolated convective development thus remains apparent. While the kinematic environment -- well within the parameter space supportive of organized convection and thus severe potential -- is noted, the weak/low-topped nature of the anticipated CAPE across this region should limit updraft intensity, and any associated hail/wind risk. As such, have again opted against introduction of a risk area. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today, as a trough continues to exit eastern NOAM into the western Atlantic. Upstream, a second trough near the West Coast this morning will gradually shift eastward toward the Great Basin/Desert Southwest, in tandem with downstream eastward advance of stout ridging over the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will shift eastward across the Southwest through the period, ahead of the advancing upper system. Later this afternoon, daytime heating beneath mid-level cooling/steepening lapse rates will promote weak/low-topped destabilization in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado Valley. Scattered to isolated convective development thus remains apparent. While the kinematic environment -- well within the parameter space supportive of organized convection and thus severe potential -- is noted, the weak/low-topped nature of the anticipated CAPE across this region should limit updraft intensity, and any associated hail/wind risk. As such, have again opted against introduction of a risk area. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today, as a trough continues to exit eastern NOAM into the western Atlantic. Upstream, a second trough near the West Coast this morning will gradually shift eastward toward the Great Basin/Desert Southwest, in tandem with downstream eastward advance of stout ridging over the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will shift eastward across the Southwest through the period, ahead of the advancing upper system. Later this afternoon, daytime heating beneath mid-level cooling/steepening lapse rates will promote weak/low-topped destabilization in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado Valley. Scattered to isolated convective development thus remains apparent. While the kinematic environment -- well within the parameter space supportive of organized convection and thus severe potential -- is noted, the weak/low-topped nature of the anticipated CAPE across this region should limit updraft intensity, and any associated hail/wind risk. As such, have again opted against introduction of a risk area. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Southwest States... An upper trough off the West Coast will continue eastward over California today and reach other parts of the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts and Baja vicinity late tonight. Lapse rates will steepen across the region today with weak destabilization within the post-cold frontal regime, and in proximity to the eastward-spreading mid-level cold core. Thunderstorms will initially be possible near/off the southern California early today, and more so focused across the Lower Colorado River Valley vicinity of southern California and southwest Arizona by late afternoon and early evening. A few stronger low-topped storms capable of small hail and/or gusty winds could materialize, but weak overall buoyancy and weakening effective shear should limit the potential for organized severe storms. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Southwest States... An upper trough off the West Coast will continue eastward over California today and reach other parts of the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts and Baja vicinity late tonight. Lapse rates will steepen across the region today with weak destabilization within the post-cold frontal regime, and in proximity to the eastward-spreading mid-level cold core. Thunderstorms will initially be possible near/off the southern California early today, and more so focused across the Lower Colorado River Valley vicinity of southern California and southwest Arizona by late afternoon and early evening. A few stronger low-topped storms capable of small hail and/or gusty winds could materialize, but weak overall buoyancy and weakening effective shear should limit the potential for organized severe storms. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Southwest States... An upper trough off the West Coast will continue eastward over California today and reach other parts of the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts and Baja vicinity late tonight. Lapse rates will steepen across the region today with weak destabilization within the post-cold frontal regime, and in proximity to the eastward-spreading mid-level cold core. Thunderstorms will initially be possible near/off the southern California early today, and more so focused across the Lower Colorado River Valley vicinity of southern California and southwest Arizona by late afternoon and early evening. A few stronger low-topped storms capable of small hail and/or gusty winds could materialize, but weak overall buoyancy and weakening effective shear should limit the potential for organized severe storms. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Southwest States... An upper trough off the West Coast will continue eastward over California today and reach other parts of the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts and Baja vicinity late tonight. Lapse rates will steepen across the region today with weak destabilization within the post-cold frontal regime, and in proximity to the eastward-spreading mid-level cold core. Thunderstorms will initially be possible near/off the southern California early today, and more so focused across the Lower Colorado River Valley vicinity of southern California and southwest Arizona by late afternoon and early evening. A few stronger low-topped storms capable of small hail and/or gusty winds could materialize, but weak overall buoyancy and weakening effective shear should limit the potential for organized severe storms. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/06/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models are in good agreement in bringing a large, positive-tilt upper trough eastward across the West and toward the central CONUS, with a persistent southwesterly flow regime across much of the East. Given this regime, a gradual increase in moisture and the development of weak instability is forecast across parts of the Gulf Coast region, with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances from eastern TX to the Carolinas on Saturday/D5. While predictability is low Sunday/D6 and beyond, the aforementioned upper trough may eventually amplify, and a wave may eventually move across the Southeast. Instability will be the limiting factor for severe potential, especially given the possibility of widespread clouds and rain. However, the area from the northern Gulf Coast to the southeastern Atlantic Coastal states is an area of interest going forward. If a trough amplification does not occur, the prolonged low-level warm advection regime with modest height falls may only result in marginal severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models are in good agreement in bringing a large, positive-tilt upper trough eastward across the West and toward the central CONUS, with a persistent southwesterly flow regime across much of the East. Given this regime, a gradual increase in moisture and the development of weak instability is forecast across parts of the Gulf Coast region, with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances from eastern TX to the Carolinas on Saturday/D5. While predictability is low Sunday/D6 and beyond, the aforementioned upper trough may eventually amplify, and a wave may eventually move across the Southeast. Instability will be the limiting factor for severe potential, especially given the possibility of widespread clouds and rain. However, the area from the northern Gulf Coast to the southeastern Atlantic Coastal states is an area of interest going forward. If a trough amplification does not occur, the prolonged low-level warm advection regime with modest height falls may only result in marginal severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models are in good agreement in bringing a large, positive-tilt upper trough eastward across the West and toward the central CONUS, with a persistent southwesterly flow regime across much of the East. Given this regime, a gradual increase in moisture and the development of weak instability is forecast across parts of the Gulf Coast region, with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances from eastern TX to the Carolinas on Saturday/D5. While predictability is low Sunday/D6 and beyond, the aforementioned upper trough may eventually amplify, and a wave may eventually move across the Southeast. Instability will be the limiting factor for severe potential, especially given the possibility of widespread clouds and rain. However, the area from the northern Gulf Coast to the southeastern Atlantic Coastal states is an area of interest going forward. If a trough amplification does not occur, the prolonged low-level warm advection regime with modest height falls may only result in marginal severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models are in good agreement in bringing a large, positive-tilt upper trough eastward across the West and toward the central CONUS, with a persistent southwesterly flow regime across much of the East. Given this regime, a gradual increase in moisture and the development of weak instability is forecast across parts of the Gulf Coast region, with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances from eastern TX to the Carolinas on Saturday/D5. While predictability is low Sunday/D6 and beyond, the aforementioned upper trough may eventually amplify, and a wave may eventually move across the Southeast. Instability will be the limiting factor for severe potential, especially given the possibility of widespread clouds and rain. However, the area from the northern Gulf Coast to the southeastern Atlantic Coastal states is an area of interest going forward. If a trough amplification does not occur, the prolonged low-level warm advection regime with modest height falls may only result in marginal severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models are in good agreement in bringing a large, positive-tilt upper trough eastward across the West and toward the central CONUS, with a persistent southwesterly flow regime across much of the East. Given this regime, a gradual increase in moisture and the development of weak instability is forecast across parts of the Gulf Coast region, with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances from eastern TX to the Carolinas on Saturday/D5. While predictability is low Sunday/D6 and beyond, the aforementioned upper trough may eventually amplify, and a wave may eventually move across the Southeast. Instability will be the limiting factor for severe potential, especially given the possibility of widespread clouds and rain. However, the area from the northern Gulf Coast to the southeastern Atlantic Coastal states is an area of interest going forward. If a trough amplification does not occur, the prolonged low-level warm advection regime with modest height falls may only result in marginal severe potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few general thunderstorms may occur over the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a large upper trough will affect much of the western and central CONUS, with a primary embedded shortwave trough developing from the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. The parent upper low will deepen slightly through the period as it moves from the Dakotas into MN. At the surface, low pressure will follow a similar path to the upper low, being vertically stacked. A broad fetch of southwesterly low-level flow will spread northward ahead of the low, but low-level moisture will lag, as will destabilization. While cold air aloft and areas of daytime heating may lead to weak instability over the upper MS Valley, substantial midlevel drying will also occur. As such, the plume of 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints across the Sabine Valley is expected to remain inactive as ascent will be well north of that area. Elevated CAPE up to 250 J/kg may support scattered weak convection north of the midlevel jet, most likely from MN into WI during the afternoon. The weak instability levels should preclude any severe threat. ..Jewell.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few general thunderstorms may occur over the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a large upper trough will affect much of the western and central CONUS, with a primary embedded shortwave trough developing from the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. The parent upper low will deepen slightly through the period as it moves from the Dakotas into MN. At the surface, low pressure will follow a similar path to the upper low, being vertically stacked. A broad fetch of southwesterly low-level flow will spread northward ahead of the low, but low-level moisture will lag, as will destabilization. While cold air aloft and areas of daytime heating may lead to weak instability over the upper MS Valley, substantial midlevel drying will also occur. As such, the plume of 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints across the Sabine Valley is expected to remain inactive as ascent will be well north of that area. Elevated CAPE up to 250 J/kg may support scattered weak convection north of the midlevel jet, most likely from MN into WI during the afternoon. The weak instability levels should preclude any severe threat. ..Jewell.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few general thunderstorms may occur over the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a large upper trough will affect much of the western and central CONUS, with a primary embedded shortwave trough developing from the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. The parent upper low will deepen slightly through the period as it moves from the Dakotas into MN. At the surface, low pressure will follow a similar path to the upper low, being vertically stacked. A broad fetch of southwesterly low-level flow will spread northward ahead of the low, but low-level moisture will lag, as will destabilization. While cold air aloft and areas of daytime heating may lead to weak instability over the upper MS Valley, substantial midlevel drying will also occur. As such, the plume of 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints across the Sabine Valley is expected to remain inactive as ascent will be well north of that area. Elevated CAPE up to 250 J/kg may support scattered weak convection north of the midlevel jet, most likely from MN into WI during the afternoon. The weak instability levels should preclude any severe threat. ..Jewell.. 02/06/2024 Read more