Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 5 21:59:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 5 21:59:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A deep western US trough will gradually move eastward over the central US through mid to late week this week. Strong mid-level flow will also persist over the southern and central US. Accompanying the passing trough, widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are expected to limit fire-weather potential. An exception to this may be across parts of southwest TX where more limited precipitation is expected. Later this week into next weekend, a second potent trough may develop over the Southwest and again may bring precipitation and cooler temperatures to much of the country. ...Southwest TX and southern NM... Despite the wetter pattern supporting widespread precipitation, somewhat drier conditions may persist over parts of far southwest TX and southern NM from midweek this week through the end of the forecast period. The strong upper-level flow lingering over a relative minima in precipitation may allow for periodic dry and breezy conditions to develop D3/Wed through D6/Sat behind a strong lee cyclone. While fuels are not overly dry, at least a low-end risk for critical fire-weather conditions is possible. However, forecast details and model differences remain too large to justify critical probabilities. Otherwise, the risk for critical fire-weather conditions over the CONUS is low owing to the seasonably cool and wet pattern. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A deep western US trough will gradually move eastward over the central US through mid to late week this week. Strong mid-level flow will also persist over the southern and central US. Accompanying the passing trough, widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are expected to limit fire-weather potential. An exception to this may be across parts of southwest TX where more limited precipitation is expected. Later this week into next weekend, a second potent trough may develop over the Southwest and again may bring precipitation and cooler temperatures to much of the country. ...Southwest TX and southern NM... Despite the wetter pattern supporting widespread precipitation, somewhat drier conditions may persist over parts of far southwest TX and southern NM from midweek this week through the end of the forecast period. The strong upper-level flow lingering over a relative minima in precipitation may allow for periodic dry and breezy conditions to develop D3/Wed through D6/Sat behind a strong lee cyclone. While fuels are not overly dry, at least a low-end risk for critical fire-weather conditions is possible. However, forecast details and model differences remain too large to justify critical probabilities. Otherwise, the risk for critical fire-weather conditions over the CONUS is low owing to the seasonably cool and wet pattern. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A deep western US trough will gradually move eastward over the central US through mid to late week this week. Strong mid-level flow will also persist over the southern and central US. Accompanying the passing trough, widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are expected to limit fire-weather potential. An exception to this may be across parts of southwest TX where more limited precipitation is expected. Later this week into next weekend, a second potent trough may develop over the Southwest and again may bring precipitation and cooler temperatures to much of the country. ...Southwest TX and southern NM... Despite the wetter pattern supporting widespread precipitation, somewhat drier conditions may persist over parts of far southwest TX and southern NM from midweek this week through the end of the forecast period. The strong upper-level flow lingering over a relative minima in precipitation may allow for periodic dry and breezy conditions to develop D3/Wed through D6/Sat behind a strong lee cyclone. While fuels are not overly dry, at least a low-end risk for critical fire-weather conditions is possible. However, forecast details and model differences remain too large to justify critical probabilities. Otherwise, the risk for critical fire-weather conditions over the CONUS is low owing to the seasonably cool and wet pattern. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A deep western US trough will gradually move eastward over the central US through mid to late week this week. Strong mid-level flow will also persist over the southern and central US. Accompanying the passing trough, widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are expected to limit fire-weather potential. An exception to this may be across parts of southwest TX where more limited precipitation is expected. Later this week into next weekend, a second potent trough may develop over the Southwest and again may bring precipitation and cooler temperatures to much of the country. ...Southwest TX and southern NM... Despite the wetter pattern supporting widespread precipitation, somewhat drier conditions may persist over parts of far southwest TX and southern NM from midweek this week through the end of the forecast period. The strong upper-level flow lingering over a relative minima in precipitation may allow for periodic dry and breezy conditions to develop D3/Wed through D6/Sat behind a strong lee cyclone. While fuels are not overly dry, at least a low-end risk for critical fire-weather conditions is possible. However, forecast details and model differences remain too large to justify critical probabilities. Otherwise, the risk for critical fire-weather conditions over the CONUS is low owing to the seasonably cool and wet pattern. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A deep western US trough will gradually move eastward over the central US through mid to late week this week. Strong mid-level flow will also persist over the southern and central US. Accompanying the passing trough, widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are expected to limit fire-weather potential. An exception to this may be across parts of southwest TX where more limited precipitation is expected. Later this week into next weekend, a second potent trough may develop over the Southwest and again may bring precipitation and cooler temperatures to much of the country. ...Southwest TX and southern NM... Despite the wetter pattern supporting widespread precipitation, somewhat drier conditions may persist over parts of far southwest TX and southern NM from midweek this week through the end of the forecast period. The strong upper-level flow lingering over a relative minima in precipitation may allow for periodic dry and breezy conditions to develop D3/Wed through D6/Sat behind a strong lee cyclone. While fuels are not overly dry, at least a low-end risk for critical fire-weather conditions is possible. However, forecast details and model differences remain too large to justify critical probabilities. Otherwise, the risk for critical fire-weather conditions over the CONUS is low owing to the seasonably cool and wet pattern. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through the remainder of this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. See the previous outlook below for more information. ..Dean.. 02/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024/ ...Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough -- extending from near the Pacific Northwest Coast southwestward across the eastern Pacific -- will make gradual eastward progress today. Upstream, ridging will prevail over the central CONUS. Still further upstream, two upper lows will continue to affect the eastern U.S. through the period. The first -- lingering over the northwestern Atlantic southeast of the Canadian Maritimes -- will result in persistence of cyclonic northwesterly flow aloft across New England. The second low of interest is one that has drifted south into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This low is forecast to take a southeastward and then eastward turn with time, shifting into Florida late today, and then across the Peninsula tonight. At the surface, low pressure over the eastern Gulf is forecast to redevelop off eastern coast of Florida near the Bahamas by this evening. Currently, vigorous convection that was affecting the Keys and southern portions of the Peninsula has shifted east, with northerly low-level winds now over southern Florida in the wake of this convection and the associated outflow boundary. While weak instability lingers off the western Florida coast at this time, dewpoints are now in the 50s inland, and thus an accordingly stable airmass is indicated. As such, potential for any stronger convection inland has diminished substantially, and will gradually end entirely as the surface low redevelops off the eastern coast. As such, the MRGL risk is being removed at this time, with severe storms not expected across Florida, or the rest of the U.S., for the remainder of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through the remainder of this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. See the previous outlook below for more information. ..Dean.. 02/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024/ ...Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough -- extending from near the Pacific Northwest Coast southwestward across the eastern Pacific -- will make gradual eastward progress today. Upstream, ridging will prevail over the central CONUS. Still further upstream, two upper lows will continue to affect the eastern U.S. through the period. The first -- lingering over the northwestern Atlantic southeast of the Canadian Maritimes -- will result in persistence of cyclonic northwesterly flow aloft across New England. The second low of interest is one that has drifted south into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This low is forecast to take a southeastward and then eastward turn with time, shifting into Florida late today, and then across the Peninsula tonight. At the surface, low pressure over the eastern Gulf is forecast to redevelop off eastern coast of Florida near the Bahamas by this evening. Currently, vigorous convection that was affecting the Keys and southern portions of the Peninsula has shifted east, with northerly low-level winds now over southern Florida in the wake of this convection and the associated outflow boundary. While weak instability lingers off the western Florida coast at this time, dewpoints are now in the 50s inland, and thus an accordingly stable airmass is indicated. As such, potential for any stronger convection inland has diminished substantially, and will gradually end entirely as the surface low redevelops off the eastern coast. As such, the MRGL risk is being removed at this time, with severe storms not expected across Florida, or the rest of the U.S., for the remainder of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through the remainder of this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. See the previous outlook below for more information. ..Dean.. 02/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024/ ...Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough -- extending from near the Pacific Northwest Coast southwestward across the eastern Pacific -- will make gradual eastward progress today. Upstream, ridging will prevail over the central CONUS. Still further upstream, two upper lows will continue to affect the eastern U.S. through the period. The first -- lingering over the northwestern Atlantic southeast of the Canadian Maritimes -- will result in persistence of cyclonic northwesterly flow aloft across New England. The second low of interest is one that has drifted south into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This low is forecast to take a southeastward and then eastward turn with time, shifting into Florida late today, and then across the Peninsula tonight. At the surface, low pressure over the eastern Gulf is forecast to redevelop off eastern coast of Florida near the Bahamas by this evening. Currently, vigorous convection that was affecting the Keys and southern portions of the Peninsula has shifted east, with northerly low-level winds now over southern Florida in the wake of this convection and the associated outflow boundary. While weak instability lingers off the western Florida coast at this time, dewpoints are now in the 50s inland, and thus an accordingly stable airmass is indicated. As such, potential for any stronger convection inland has diminished substantially, and will gradually end entirely as the surface low redevelops off the eastern coast. As such, the MRGL risk is being removed at this time, with severe storms not expected across Florida, or the rest of the U.S., for the remainder of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through the remainder of this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. See the previous outlook below for more information. ..Dean.. 02/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024/ ...Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough -- extending from near the Pacific Northwest Coast southwestward across the eastern Pacific -- will make gradual eastward progress today. Upstream, ridging will prevail over the central CONUS. Still further upstream, two upper lows will continue to affect the eastern U.S. through the period. The first -- lingering over the northwestern Atlantic southeast of the Canadian Maritimes -- will result in persistence of cyclonic northwesterly flow aloft across New England. The second low of interest is one that has drifted south into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This low is forecast to take a southeastward and then eastward turn with time, shifting into Florida late today, and then across the Peninsula tonight. At the surface, low pressure over the eastern Gulf is forecast to redevelop off eastern coast of Florida near the Bahamas by this evening. Currently, vigorous convection that was affecting the Keys and southern portions of the Peninsula has shifted east, with northerly low-level winds now over southern Florida in the wake of this convection and the associated outflow boundary. While weak instability lingers off the western Florida coast at this time, dewpoints are now in the 50s inland, and thus an accordingly stable airmass is indicated. As such, potential for any stronger convection inland has diminished substantially, and will gradually end entirely as the surface low redevelops off the eastern coast. As such, the MRGL risk is being removed at this time, with severe storms not expected across Florida, or the rest of the U.S., for the remainder of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through the remainder of this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. See the previous outlook below for more information. ..Dean.. 02/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024/ ...Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough -- extending from near the Pacific Northwest Coast southwestward across the eastern Pacific -- will make gradual eastward progress today. Upstream, ridging will prevail over the central CONUS. Still further upstream, two upper lows will continue to affect the eastern U.S. through the period. The first -- lingering over the northwestern Atlantic southeast of the Canadian Maritimes -- will result in persistence of cyclonic northwesterly flow aloft across New England. The second low of interest is one that has drifted south into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This low is forecast to take a southeastward and then eastward turn with time, shifting into Florida late today, and then across the Peninsula tonight. At the surface, low pressure over the eastern Gulf is forecast to redevelop off eastern coast of Florida near the Bahamas by this evening. Currently, vigorous convection that was affecting the Keys and southern portions of the Peninsula has shifted east, with northerly low-level winds now over southern Florida in the wake of this convection and the associated outflow boundary. While weak instability lingers off the western Florida coast at this time, dewpoints are now in the 50s inland, and thus an accordingly stable airmass is indicated. As such, potential for any stronger convection inland has diminished substantially, and will gradually end entirely as the surface low redevelops off the eastern coast. As such, the MRGL risk is being removed at this time, with severe storms not expected across Florida, or the rest of the U.S., for the remainder of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through the remainder of this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. See the previous outlook below for more information. ..Dean.. 02/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024/ ...Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough -- extending from near the Pacific Northwest Coast southwestward across the eastern Pacific -- will make gradual eastward progress today. Upstream, ridging will prevail over the central CONUS. Still further upstream, two upper lows will continue to affect the eastern U.S. through the period. The first -- lingering over the northwestern Atlantic southeast of the Canadian Maritimes -- will result in persistence of cyclonic northwesterly flow aloft across New England. The second low of interest is one that has drifted south into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This low is forecast to take a southeastward and then eastward turn with time, shifting into Florida late today, and then across the Peninsula tonight. At the surface, low pressure over the eastern Gulf is forecast to redevelop off eastern coast of Florida near the Bahamas by this evening. Currently, vigorous convection that was affecting the Keys and southern portions of the Peninsula has shifted east, with northerly low-level winds now over southern Florida in the wake of this convection and the associated outflow boundary. While weak instability lingers off the western Florida coast at this time, dewpoints are now in the 50s inland, and thus an accordingly stable airmass is indicated. As such, potential for any stronger convection inland has diminished substantially, and will gradually end entirely as the surface low redevelops off the eastern coast. As such, the MRGL risk is being removed at this time, with severe storms not expected across Florida, or the rest of the U.S., for the remainder of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through the remainder of this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. See the previous outlook below for more information. ..Dean.. 02/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024/ ...Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough -- extending from near the Pacific Northwest Coast southwestward across the eastern Pacific -- will make gradual eastward progress today. Upstream, ridging will prevail over the central CONUS. Still further upstream, two upper lows will continue to affect the eastern U.S. through the period. The first -- lingering over the northwestern Atlantic southeast of the Canadian Maritimes -- will result in persistence of cyclonic northwesterly flow aloft across New England. The second low of interest is one that has drifted south into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This low is forecast to take a southeastward and then eastward turn with time, shifting into Florida late today, and then across the Peninsula tonight. At the surface, low pressure over the eastern Gulf is forecast to redevelop off eastern coast of Florida near the Bahamas by this evening. Currently, vigorous convection that was affecting the Keys and southern portions of the Peninsula has shifted east, with northerly low-level winds now over southern Florida in the wake of this convection and the associated outflow boundary. While weak instability lingers off the western Florida coast at this time, dewpoints are now in the 50s inland, and thus an accordingly stable airmass is indicated. As such, potential for any stronger convection inland has diminished substantially, and will gradually end entirely as the surface low redevelops off the eastern coast. As such, the MRGL risk is being removed at this time, with severe storms not expected across Florida, or the rest of the U.S., for the remainder of the period. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough progresses across the Interior West tomorrow/Tuesday. Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected to overspread poorly receptive fuels for most of the CONUS, limiting the potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough progresses across the Interior West tomorrow/Tuesday. Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected to overspread poorly receptive fuels for most of the CONUS, limiting the potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough progresses across the Interior West tomorrow/Tuesday. Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected to overspread poorly receptive fuels for most of the CONUS, limiting the potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough progresses across the Interior West tomorrow/Tuesday. Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected to overspread poorly receptive fuels for most of the CONUS, limiting the potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough progresses across the Interior West tomorrow/Tuesday. Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected to overspread poorly receptive fuels for most of the CONUS, limiting the potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough progresses across the Interior West tomorrow/Tuesday. Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected to overspread poorly receptive fuels for most of the CONUS, limiting the potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more