Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave impulses, embedded within and ahead of the broader longwave trough in the West, will eject east-northeast across the Southwest and into the Great Plains. The more northern of these impulses should amplify over the Dakotas by 12Z Thursday. This should induce moderate cyclogenesis with the surface low tracking from the central High Plains towards the southeast SD vicinity. ...Southwest to Great Plains... Isolated thunderstorm development should initially focus near the higher terrain of the Four Corners States, as surface heating and 500-mb temperatures of -22 to -26 C yield scant buoyancy. Across the Great Plains, surface dew points should be limited to the low to mid 40s by late afternoon, as modified moisture return ensues along the TX Gulf Coast. Still, mid-level height falls and pronounced boundary-layer heating should aid in high-based/low-topped convection developing over parts of the central to southern High Plains. While SBCAPE will probably only reach 50-250 J/kg, very isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Given favorable background lower-level flow, convection-aided strong surface gusts within a dry-microburst environment are possible. This high-based convection should become elevated with eastern extent after sunset, and appears more likely to persist into Wednesday night across parts of NE/SD. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave impulses, embedded within and ahead of the broader longwave trough in the West, will eject east-northeast across the Southwest and into the Great Plains. The more northern of these impulses should amplify over the Dakotas by 12Z Thursday. This should induce moderate cyclogenesis with the surface low tracking from the central High Plains towards the southeast SD vicinity. ...Southwest to Great Plains... Isolated thunderstorm development should initially focus near the higher terrain of the Four Corners States, as surface heating and 500-mb temperatures of -22 to -26 C yield scant buoyancy. Across the Great Plains, surface dew points should be limited to the low to mid 40s by late afternoon, as modified moisture return ensues along the TX Gulf Coast. Still, mid-level height falls and pronounced boundary-layer heating should aid in high-based/low-topped convection developing over parts of the central to southern High Plains. While SBCAPE will probably only reach 50-250 J/kg, very isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Given favorable background lower-level flow, convection-aided strong surface gusts within a dry-microburst environment are possible. This high-based convection should become elevated with eastern extent after sunset, and appears more likely to persist into Wednesday night across parts of NE/SD. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, where large-scale ascent focuses downstream of the primary shortwave impulse attendant to the Pacific Coast trough. Thunderstorm coverage should diurnally peak across the Lower CO Valley in the late afternoon Tuesday, with scant buoyancy being the primary limiting factor to storm intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress southward around the backside of the broader trough off the Atlantic Coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across east FL through the evening. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, should support low-topped thunderstorms into the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, where large-scale ascent focuses downstream of the primary shortwave impulse attendant to the Pacific Coast trough. Thunderstorm coverage should diurnally peak across the Lower CO Valley in the late afternoon Tuesday, with scant buoyancy being the primary limiting factor to storm intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress southward around the backside of the broader trough off the Atlantic Coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across east FL through the evening. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, should support low-topped thunderstorms into the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, where large-scale ascent focuses downstream of the primary shortwave impulse attendant to the Pacific Coast trough. Thunderstorm coverage should diurnally peak across the Lower CO Valley in the late afternoon Tuesday, with scant buoyancy being the primary limiting factor to storm intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress southward around the backside of the broader trough off the Atlantic Coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across east FL through the evening. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, should support low-topped thunderstorms into the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, where large-scale ascent focuses downstream of the primary shortwave impulse attendant to the Pacific Coast trough. Thunderstorm coverage should diurnally peak across the Lower CO Valley in the late afternoon Tuesday, with scant buoyancy being the primary limiting factor to storm intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress southward around the backside of the broader trough off the Atlantic Coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across east FL through the evening. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, should support low-topped thunderstorms into the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, where large-scale ascent focuses downstream of the primary shortwave impulse attendant to the Pacific Coast trough. Thunderstorm coverage should diurnally peak across the Lower CO Valley in the late afternoon Tuesday, with scant buoyancy being the primary limiting factor to storm intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress southward around the backside of the broader trough off the Atlantic Coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across east FL through the evening. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, should support low-topped thunderstorms into the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough progresses across the Interior West tomorrow/Tuesday. Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected to overspread poorly receptive fuels for most of the CONUS, limiting the potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough progresses across the Interior West tomorrow/Tuesday. Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected to overspread poorly receptive fuels for most of the CONUS, limiting the potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough progresses across the Interior West tomorrow/Tuesday. Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected to overspread poorly receptive fuels for most of the CONUS, limiting the potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough progresses across the Interior West tomorrow/Tuesday. Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected to overspread poorly receptive fuels for most of the CONUS, limiting the potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough progresses across the Interior West tomorrow/Tuesday. Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected to overspread poorly receptive fuels for most of the CONUS, limiting the potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Plains states today between a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic and a second trough impinging on the West Coast. Relatively cool temperatures with weak wind fields should characterize surface conditions across the Plains, with heavier precipitation falling along the West Coast and Gulf Coast areas, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential across much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Plains states today between a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic and a second trough impinging on the West Coast. Relatively cool temperatures with weak wind fields should characterize surface conditions across the Plains, with heavier precipitation falling along the West Coast and Gulf Coast areas, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential across much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Plains states today between a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic and a second trough impinging on the West Coast. Relatively cool temperatures with weak wind fields should characterize surface conditions across the Plains, with heavier precipitation falling along the West Coast and Gulf Coast areas, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential across much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Plains states today between a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic and a second trough impinging on the West Coast. Relatively cool temperatures with weak wind fields should characterize surface conditions across the Plains, with heavier precipitation falling along the West Coast and Gulf Coast areas, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential across much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Plains states today between a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic and a second trough impinging on the West Coast. Relatively cool temperatures with weak wind fields should characterize surface conditions across the Plains, with heavier precipitation falling along the West Coast and Gulf Coast areas, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential across much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may impact parts of the Florida Keys into southeastern peninsula coastal areas today, including one or two which may pose a risk for a tornado across parts of the Greater Miami area around mid day. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that the persistent, blocking mid/upper high over the Upper Midwest will become increasingly suppressed during this period. As this occurs, it appears that flow will become a bit more progressive across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into western Atlantic, though it may undergo some further amplification today through tonight. This probably will include building mid-level ridging across and east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau vicinity, downstream of slowly eastward accelerating mid-level troughing (including progression farther inland across California). Downstream of the ridging, mid-level troughing (with at least an initially more consolidated embedded mid-level low digging into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico) is forecast to progress across Florida, the Caribbean and Bahamas through early Tuesday. It appears that this will be accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis to the northeast of the Bahamas during the latter half of this period. ...Southern Florida... Models indicate that an initial area of low pressure may begin to take shape over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (offshore of the central/southern Florida peninsula) by 12Z this morning, before overspreading southern Florida by late afternoon. In the wake of a couple of preceding short wave perturbations on the leading edge of the cyclonic mid/upper flow, potentially cool air associated with substantive lower-tropospheric drying precedes the developing low, and probably will maintain a stabilizing influence across much of the peninsula through the day. Across parts of the Keys into southeastern peninsula coastal areas, Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings do suggest that substantive boundary-layer destabilization is possible this morning into early afternoon. Beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures, low-level moistening, including surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F, may become sufficient to contribute to CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg with daytime heating. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, and perhaps coinciding with enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs across the Greater Miami vicinity, the environment may become conducive to supercells potentially capable of producing a tornado for at least an hour or two late this morning or early afternoon. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may impact parts of the Florida Keys into southeastern peninsula coastal areas today, including one or two which may pose a risk for a tornado across parts of the Greater Miami area around mid day. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that the persistent, blocking mid/upper high over the Upper Midwest will become increasingly suppressed during this period. As this occurs, it appears that flow will become a bit more progressive across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into western Atlantic, though it may undergo some further amplification today through tonight. This probably will include building mid-level ridging across and east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau vicinity, downstream of slowly eastward accelerating mid-level troughing (including progression farther inland across California). Downstream of the ridging, mid-level troughing (with at least an initially more consolidated embedded mid-level low digging into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico) is forecast to progress across Florida, the Caribbean and Bahamas through early Tuesday. It appears that this will be accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis to the northeast of the Bahamas during the latter half of this period. ...Southern Florida... Models indicate that an initial area of low pressure may begin to take shape over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (offshore of the central/southern Florida peninsula) by 12Z this morning, before overspreading southern Florida by late afternoon. In the wake of a couple of preceding short wave perturbations on the leading edge of the cyclonic mid/upper flow, potentially cool air associated with substantive lower-tropospheric drying precedes the developing low, and probably will maintain a stabilizing influence across much of the peninsula through the day. Across parts of the Keys into southeastern peninsula coastal areas, Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings do suggest that substantive boundary-layer destabilization is possible this morning into early afternoon. Beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures, low-level moistening, including surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F, may become sufficient to contribute to CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg with daytime heating. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, and perhaps coinciding with enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs across the Greater Miami vicinity, the environment may become conducive to supercells potentially capable of producing a tornado for at least an hour or two late this morning or early afternoon. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may impact parts of the Florida Keys into southeastern peninsula coastal areas today, including one or two which may pose a risk for a tornado across parts of the Greater Miami area around mid day. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that the persistent, blocking mid/upper high over the Upper Midwest will become increasingly suppressed during this period. As this occurs, it appears that flow will become a bit more progressive across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into western Atlantic, though it may undergo some further amplification today through tonight. This probably will include building mid-level ridging across and east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau vicinity, downstream of slowly eastward accelerating mid-level troughing (including progression farther inland across California). Downstream of the ridging, mid-level troughing (with at least an initially more consolidated embedded mid-level low digging into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico) is forecast to progress across Florida, the Caribbean and Bahamas through early Tuesday. It appears that this will be accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis to the northeast of the Bahamas during the latter half of this period. ...Southern Florida... Models indicate that an initial area of low pressure may begin to take shape over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (offshore of the central/southern Florida peninsula) by 12Z this morning, before overspreading southern Florida by late afternoon. In the wake of a couple of preceding short wave perturbations on the leading edge of the cyclonic mid/upper flow, potentially cool air associated with substantive lower-tropospheric drying precedes the developing low, and probably will maintain a stabilizing influence across much of the peninsula through the day. Across parts of the Keys into southeastern peninsula coastal areas, Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings do suggest that substantive boundary-layer destabilization is possible this morning into early afternoon. Beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures, low-level moistening, including surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F, may become sufficient to contribute to CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg with daytime heating. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, and perhaps coinciding with enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs across the Greater Miami vicinity, the environment may become conducive to supercells potentially capable of producing a tornado for at least an hour or two late this morning or early afternoon. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 Read more