Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across far south Florida and the Florida Keys during the day on Monday. ...South Florida and the Keys... A mid/upper-level low initially centered near the northeast Gulf Coast is forecast to move southeastward toward the FL Peninsula and gradually weaken on Monday. In association with this system, strong thunderstorms may affect portions of the eastern Gulf, Keys, and far southern FL Peninsula overnight prior to the start of the D2/Monday forecast period. While an outflow-influenced cold front is expected to eventually move through the southern peninsula and into the Keys, some threat for strong storms may linger into Monday morning, with isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts possible. Potential for afternoon development is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out as colder temperatures aloft overspread the region. ...California... Cold temperatures aloft in association with an upper-level trough near/just off the CA coast will support low-topped convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes across parts of CA on Monday. However, low-level flow/shear should diminish through the day, as an occluded cyclone initially off of the northern CA continues to weaken with time. The weakening flow should limit the potential for organized convection across the region. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across far south Florida and the Florida Keys during the day on Monday. ...South Florida and the Keys... A mid/upper-level low initially centered near the northeast Gulf Coast is forecast to move southeastward toward the FL Peninsula and gradually weaken on Monday. In association with this system, strong thunderstorms may affect portions of the eastern Gulf, Keys, and far southern FL Peninsula overnight prior to the start of the D2/Monday forecast period. While an outflow-influenced cold front is expected to eventually move through the southern peninsula and into the Keys, some threat for strong storms may linger into Monday morning, with isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts possible. Potential for afternoon development is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out as colder temperatures aloft overspread the region. ...California... Cold temperatures aloft in association with an upper-level trough near/just off the CA coast will support low-topped convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes across parts of CA on Monday. However, low-level flow/shear should diminish through the day, as an occluded cyclone initially off of the northern CA continues to weaken with time. The weakening flow should limit the potential for organized convection across the region. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across far south Florida and the Florida Keys during the day on Monday. ...South Florida and the Keys... A mid/upper-level low initially centered near the northeast Gulf Coast is forecast to move southeastward toward the FL Peninsula and gradually weaken on Monday. In association with this system, strong thunderstorms may affect portions of the eastern Gulf, Keys, and far southern FL Peninsula overnight prior to the start of the D2/Monday forecast period. While an outflow-influenced cold front is expected to eventually move through the southern peninsula and into the Keys, some threat for strong storms may linger into Monday morning, with isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts possible. Potential for afternoon development is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out as colder temperatures aloft overspread the region. ...California... Cold temperatures aloft in association with an upper-level trough near/just off the CA coast will support low-topped convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes across parts of CA on Monday. However, low-level flow/shear should diminish through the day, as an occluded cyclone initially off of the northern CA continues to weaken with time. The weakening flow should limit the potential for organized convection across the region. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across far south Florida and the Florida Keys during the day on Monday. ...South Florida and the Keys... A mid/upper-level low initially centered near the northeast Gulf Coast is forecast to move southeastward toward the FL Peninsula and gradually weaken on Monday. In association with this system, strong thunderstorms may affect portions of the eastern Gulf, Keys, and far southern FL Peninsula overnight prior to the start of the D2/Monday forecast period. While an outflow-influenced cold front is expected to eventually move through the southern peninsula and into the Keys, some threat for strong storms may linger into Monday morning, with isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts possible. Potential for afternoon development is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out as colder temperatures aloft overspread the region. ...California... Cold temperatures aloft in association with an upper-level trough near/just off the CA coast will support low-topped convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes across parts of CA on Monday. However, low-level flow/shear should diminish through the day, as an occluded cyclone initially off of the northern CA continues to weaken with time. The weakening flow should limit the potential for organized convection across the region. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 Read more

WW 0014 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 14 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE MIA TO 5 ENE MIA TO 25 NNW MIA. ..MOSIER..02/04/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 14 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC099-041840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PALM BEACH AMZ650-651-041840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 14 TORNADO FL CW 041210Z - 041900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 14 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 710 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 710 AM until 200 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A complex of strong-severe thunderstorms is expected to sweep eastward across mainland southern FL and the Keys through early afternoon, with damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles either side of a line from 55 miles northwest of Miami FL to 20 miles west southwest of Key West FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Edwards Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Across southwest TX and far southeast NM, gusty winds and low humidity are expected this afternoon behind the deepening area of low pressure over east TX. Morning observations showed poor humidity recoveries below 30% extending from the Rio Grande Valley into far southeastern NM. As winds increase to 25-30 mph through the morning and early afternoon, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will likely develop. However, area fuel moisture remains above normal from recent rainfall, limiting greater fire-weather concerns. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Across southwest TX and far southeast NM, gusty winds and low humidity are expected this afternoon behind the deepening area of low pressure over east TX. Morning observations showed poor humidity recoveries below 30% extending from the Rio Grande Valley into far southeastern NM. As winds increase to 25-30 mph through the morning and early afternoon, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will likely develop. However, area fuel moisture remains above normal from recent rainfall, limiting greater fire-weather concerns. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Across southwest TX and far southeast NM, gusty winds and low humidity are expected this afternoon behind the deepening area of low pressure over east TX. Morning observations showed poor humidity recoveries below 30% extending from the Rio Grande Valley into far southeastern NM. As winds increase to 25-30 mph through the morning and early afternoon, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will likely develop. However, area fuel moisture remains above normal from recent rainfall, limiting greater fire-weather concerns. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Across southwest TX and far southeast NM, gusty winds and low humidity are expected this afternoon behind the deepening area of low pressure over east TX. Morning observations showed poor humidity recoveries below 30% extending from the Rio Grande Valley into far southeastern NM. As winds increase to 25-30 mph through the morning and early afternoon, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will likely develop. However, area fuel moisture remains above normal from recent rainfall, limiting greater fire-weather concerns. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Across southwest TX and far southeast NM, gusty winds and low humidity are expected this afternoon behind the deepening area of low pressure over east TX. Morning observations showed poor humidity recoveries below 30% extending from the Rio Grande Valley into far southeastern NM. As winds increase to 25-30 mph through the morning and early afternoon, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will likely develop. However, area fuel moisture remains above normal from recent rainfall, limiting greater fire-weather concerns. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Across southwest TX and far southeast NM, gusty winds and low humidity are expected this afternoon behind the deepening area of low pressure over east TX. Morning observations showed poor humidity recoveries below 30% extending from the Rio Grande Valley into far southeastern NM. As winds increase to 25-30 mph through the morning and early afternoon, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will likely develop. However, area fuel moisture remains above normal from recent rainfall, limiting greater fire-weather concerns. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Across southwest TX and far southeast NM, gusty winds and low humidity are expected this afternoon behind the deepening area of low pressure over east TX. Morning observations showed poor humidity recoveries below 30% extending from the Rio Grande Valley into far southeastern NM. As winds increase to 25-30 mph through the morning and early afternoon, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will likely develop. However, area fuel moisture remains above normal from recent rainfall, limiting greater fire-weather concerns. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Across southwest TX and far southeast NM, gusty winds and low humidity are expected this afternoon behind the deepening area of low pressure over east TX. Morning observations showed poor humidity recoveries below 30% extending from the Rio Grande Valley into far southeastern NM. As winds increase to 25-30 mph through the morning and early afternoon, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will likely develop. However, area fuel moisture remains above normal from recent rainfall, limiting greater fire-weather concerns. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Across southwest TX and far southeast NM, gusty winds and low humidity are expected this afternoon behind the deepening area of low pressure over east TX. Morning observations showed poor humidity recoveries below 30% extending from the Rio Grande Valley into far southeastern NM. As winds increase to 25-30 mph through the morning and early afternoon, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will likely develop. However, area fuel moisture remains above normal from recent rainfall, limiting greater fire-weather concerns. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0105 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 14... FOR SOUTH FL AND THE UPPER FL KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 0105 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0941 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Areas affected...South FL and the Upper FL Keys Concerning...Tornado Watch 14... Valid 041541Z - 041715Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 14 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado continues across south Florida and the Upper Florida Keys. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to show a convective line extending southward from central FL into far south FL and then back southwestward through the Middle Keys. Buoyancy ahead of this line remains limited by poor lapse rates and only marginally warm/moist surface conditions. This limited buoyancy has tempered overall storm intensity/depth, with a generally shallow character to much of the convection. Even so, given the robust low to mid-level flow in place, a few stronger gusts have still been reported, including 36 and 37 kt at NQX and MTH, respectively. This trend is forecast to continue for the next hour/hour and a half before the line moves offshore. Recent KAMX does show a vertically veering low-level wind profile supportive of a brief tornado or two if greater updraft depth can be maintained. ..Mosier.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... LAT...LON 24378130 24968084 25728069 26148065 26448059 26528022 26278004 25508015 24908053 24378130 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will continue across a small portion of southeastern FL, with low/additional risk possible across parts of FL later today/tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon. ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will continue across a small portion of southeastern FL, with low/additional risk possible across parts of FL later today/tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon. ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will continue across a small portion of southeastern FL, with low/additional risk possible across parts of FL later today/tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon. ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will continue across a small portion of southeastern FL, with low/additional risk possible across parts of FL later today/tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon. ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/04/2024 Read more