Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...17z Update... Morning rainfall analysis shows moderate accumulations across parts of southwest TX from yesterday's thunderstorm event. With wetting rains atop already marginal fuels in the area, the Elevated area has been shifted westward. Gusty winds and low humidity, supporting occasional fire-weather concerns, remain possible this afternoon/evening across parts of the western TX Trans-Pecos. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A stacked surface-500 mb low will traverse central TX and approach the lower MS Valley today, promoting widespread dry westerly surface flow to portions of western into south-central TX. Sustained surface winds may approach 30 mph at times, and RH may dip to 15 percent in spots. While much of the region has experienced appreciable rainfall, the Rio Grande area has received less rain compared to points farther north and east. Elevated highlights remain in place where relatively minimal rainfall has occurred. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...17z Update... Morning rainfall analysis shows moderate accumulations across parts of southwest TX from yesterday's thunderstorm event. With wetting rains atop already marginal fuels in the area, the Elevated area has been shifted westward. Gusty winds and low humidity, supporting occasional fire-weather concerns, remain possible this afternoon/evening across parts of the western TX Trans-Pecos. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A stacked surface-500 mb low will traverse central TX and approach the lower MS Valley today, promoting widespread dry westerly surface flow to portions of western into south-central TX. Sustained surface winds may approach 30 mph at times, and RH may dip to 15 percent in spots. While much of the region has experienced appreciable rainfall, the Rio Grande area has received less rain compared to points farther north and east. Elevated highlights remain in place where relatively minimal rainfall has occurred. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...17z Update... Morning rainfall analysis shows moderate accumulations across parts of southwest TX from yesterday's thunderstorm event. With wetting rains atop already marginal fuels in the area, the Elevated area has been shifted westward. Gusty winds and low humidity, supporting occasional fire-weather concerns, remain possible this afternoon/evening across parts of the western TX Trans-Pecos. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A stacked surface-500 mb low will traverse central TX and approach the lower MS Valley today, promoting widespread dry westerly surface flow to portions of western into south-central TX. Sustained surface winds may approach 30 mph at times, and RH may dip to 15 percent in spots. While much of the region has experienced appreciable rainfall, the Rio Grande area has received less rain compared to points farther north and east. Elevated highlights remain in place where relatively minimal rainfall has occurred. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...17z Update... Morning rainfall analysis shows moderate accumulations across parts of southwest TX from yesterday's thunderstorm event. With wetting rains atop already marginal fuels in the area, the Elevated area has been shifted westward. Gusty winds and low humidity, supporting occasional fire-weather concerns, remain possible this afternoon/evening across parts of the western TX Trans-Pecos. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A stacked surface-500 mb low will traverse central TX and approach the lower MS Valley today, promoting widespread dry westerly surface flow to portions of western into south-central TX. Sustained surface winds may approach 30 mph at times, and RH may dip to 15 percent in spots. While much of the region has experienced appreciable rainfall, the Rio Grande area has received less rain compared to points farther north and east. Elevated highlights remain in place where relatively minimal rainfall has occurred. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible today from the western Gulf Coast to parts of the central Plains. ...Discussion... Highly amplified flow aloft will persist across the U.S. today and tonight, as a closed low at the base of an elongated/negatively tilted trough shifts east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, and toward the lower Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to cross the Gulf Coast region, with a trailing cold front advancing eastward/southeastward across the Gulf through the period. Meanwhile, a second upper trough is forecast to linger over the Canadian Maritimes, with a sharp ridge separating the two troughs, extending from the Canadian Prairie southeastward into the Southeast. Showers and a few inland thunderstorms will continue in advance of the central U.S. upper system, from the Kansas vicinity southeastward to the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. More widespread thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, over the open Gulf. While a stronger storm or two may brush the southern Louisiana coastal areas this afternoon, instability/shear combination should remain insufficient inland to support appreciable severe risk. Small hail will also be possible with a stronger storm or two this afternoon in the low-topped convection/cold-core regime over Oklahoma/eastern Texas this afternoon, but again, severe risk appears minimal at best. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible today from the western Gulf Coast to parts of the central Plains. ...Discussion... Highly amplified flow aloft will persist across the U.S. today and tonight, as a closed low at the base of an elongated/negatively tilted trough shifts east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, and toward the lower Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to cross the Gulf Coast region, with a trailing cold front advancing eastward/southeastward across the Gulf through the period. Meanwhile, a second upper trough is forecast to linger over the Canadian Maritimes, with a sharp ridge separating the two troughs, extending from the Canadian Prairie southeastward into the Southeast. Showers and a few inland thunderstorms will continue in advance of the central U.S. upper system, from the Kansas vicinity southeastward to the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. More widespread thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, over the open Gulf. While a stronger storm or two may brush the southern Louisiana coastal areas this afternoon, instability/shear combination should remain insufficient inland to support appreciable severe risk. Small hail will also be possible with a stronger storm or two this afternoon in the low-topped convection/cold-core regime over Oklahoma/eastern Texas this afternoon, but again, severe risk appears minimal at best. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible today from the western Gulf Coast to parts of the central Plains. ...Discussion... Highly amplified flow aloft will persist across the U.S. today and tonight, as a closed low at the base of an elongated/negatively tilted trough shifts east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, and toward the lower Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to cross the Gulf Coast region, with a trailing cold front advancing eastward/southeastward across the Gulf through the period. Meanwhile, a second upper trough is forecast to linger over the Canadian Maritimes, with a sharp ridge separating the two troughs, extending from the Canadian Prairie southeastward into the Southeast. Showers and a few inland thunderstorms will continue in advance of the central U.S. upper system, from the Kansas vicinity southeastward to the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. More widespread thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, over the open Gulf. While a stronger storm or two may brush the southern Louisiana coastal areas this afternoon, instability/shear combination should remain insufficient inland to support appreciable severe risk. Small hail will also be possible with a stronger storm or two this afternoon in the low-topped convection/cold-core regime over Oklahoma/eastern Texas this afternoon, but again, severe risk appears minimal at best. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible today from the western Gulf Coast to parts of the central Plains. ...Discussion... Highly amplified flow aloft will persist across the U.S. today and tonight, as a closed low at the base of an elongated/negatively tilted trough shifts east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, and toward the lower Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to cross the Gulf Coast region, with a trailing cold front advancing eastward/southeastward across the Gulf through the period. Meanwhile, a second upper trough is forecast to linger over the Canadian Maritimes, with a sharp ridge separating the two troughs, extending from the Canadian Prairie southeastward into the Southeast. Showers and a few inland thunderstorms will continue in advance of the central U.S. upper system, from the Kansas vicinity southeastward to the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. More widespread thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, over the open Gulf. While a stronger storm or two may brush the southern Louisiana coastal areas this afternoon, instability/shear combination should remain insufficient inland to support appreciable severe risk. Small hail will also be possible with a stronger storm or two this afternoon in the low-topped convection/cold-core regime over Oklahoma/eastern Texas this afternoon, but again, severe risk appears minimal at best. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible today from the western Gulf Coast to parts of the central Plains. ...Discussion... Highly amplified flow aloft will persist across the U.S. today and tonight, as a closed low at the base of an elongated/negatively tilted trough shifts east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, and toward the lower Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to cross the Gulf Coast region, with a trailing cold front advancing eastward/southeastward across the Gulf through the period. Meanwhile, a second upper trough is forecast to linger over the Canadian Maritimes, with a sharp ridge separating the two troughs, extending from the Canadian Prairie southeastward into the Southeast. Showers and a few inland thunderstorms will continue in advance of the central U.S. upper system, from the Kansas vicinity southeastward to the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. More widespread thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, over the open Gulf. While a stronger storm or two may brush the southern Louisiana coastal areas this afternoon, instability/shear combination should remain insufficient inland to support appreciable severe risk. Small hail will also be possible with a stronger storm or two this afternoon in the low-topped convection/cold-core regime over Oklahoma/eastern Texas this afternoon, but again, severe risk appears minimal at best. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible today from the western Gulf Coast to parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS, with strong ridging from central Canada southeastward across the Ohio Valley to the Southeast. The southern part of the ridging will erode laterally as a strong shortwave trough -- initially located over parts of southern NM and west TX -- pivots through cyclonic flow around a closed 500-mb low now near CAO. The shortwave trough will strengthen and become the dominant closed cyclone centered near SHV by the end of the period, along an extensive larger-scale trough from the central Rockies to the south-central Gulf. At 11Z, the surface analysis showed a low in the CAO/DRT area, stacked with the 500-mb center. An occluded front was drawn across the northeastern TX Panhandle, southwestern OK, and western north TX, with cold front over south-central TX into southern Coahuila. A warm front was analyzed from the central to northwestern Gulf to just off the upper TX Coast, becoming diffuse amongst convective processes and outflows further northwest. An elongated area of low pressure was drawn over the lower TX Coast. That coastal low should shift northeastward to just offshore from the west-central part of the LA coastline by 00Z, with cold front arching southward and southwestward across the western Gulf. Meanwhile, the occluded low should drift southeastward over the TX Panhandle, with the occluded front reaching parts of northwest, north-central and southeast TX. By 12Z tomorrow, the occluded/cold front should extend from the western low over north-central TX, through another over southwestern or south-central MS, across the MS Gulf Coast, arching to the east-central and south-central Gulf. ...Western Gulf Coast... An ongoing band of thunderstorms is moving across parts of the middle/lower TX Coast, roughly between Baffin Bay and the Brazos River. The northern part is impinging on outflow from an earlier complex now over the Gulf south of BPT, which will limit severe-wind potential, and the mode should preclude substantial hail. A few strong gusts or instances of hail approaching severe limits may occur with this activity before it moves offshore, with drying aloft likely limiting development upshear. Substantial clouds and precip should preclude favorable destabilization for overland severe farther east. Sufficient shear and instability to support supercells are possible over the open Gulf, but any associated organized severe threat should remain away from land areas through the end of the period. ...Northeast TX to east-central OK... A band of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms is expected to develop over parts of east-central/southeastern OK and north TX east of I-35 during midday to early afternoon. Activity should persist through much of the afternoon, and shift slowly eastward, while embedded cells move largely northward. Convection should occur amidst diurnally/diabatically weakened MLCINH, behind an arc of morning clouds/precip, and along the eastern rim of a midlevel dry slot that provides preconvective clearing/heating opportunity. Relatively low tops (near 400 mb) are expected for convection in this region -- some of which should be surface-based. Cold air aloft (around -22 to -24 deg C at 500 mb) will enable sufficiently steep midlevel lapse rates, above residual moisture with 50s F surface dewpoints, for a narrow plume of around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE, despite cool (upper 50s to mid 60s F) inflow-layer surface temperatures. Forecast wind profiles indicate weak deep/ effective shear and reversely curved hodographs with limited positive SRH, though thermally enhanced low-level vorticity may maximize in the corridor. The most vigorous cells may produce small hail and strong gusts, and perhaps funnel clouds. Organized severe potential appears too conditional and low to assign outlook-threshold probabilities at this time. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible today from the western Gulf Coast to parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS, with strong ridging from central Canada southeastward across the Ohio Valley to the Southeast. The southern part of the ridging will erode laterally as a strong shortwave trough -- initially located over parts of southern NM and west TX -- pivots through cyclonic flow around a closed 500-mb low now near CAO. The shortwave trough will strengthen and become the dominant closed cyclone centered near SHV by the end of the period, along an extensive larger-scale trough from the central Rockies to the south-central Gulf. At 11Z, the surface analysis showed a low in the CAO/DRT area, stacked with the 500-mb center. An occluded front was drawn across the northeastern TX Panhandle, southwestern OK, and western north TX, with cold front over south-central TX into southern Coahuila. A warm front was analyzed from the central to northwestern Gulf to just off the upper TX Coast, becoming diffuse amongst convective processes and outflows further northwest. An elongated area of low pressure was drawn over the lower TX Coast. That coastal low should shift northeastward to just offshore from the west-central part of the LA coastline by 00Z, with cold front arching southward and southwestward across the western Gulf. Meanwhile, the occluded low should drift southeastward over the TX Panhandle, with the occluded front reaching parts of northwest, north-central and southeast TX. By 12Z tomorrow, the occluded/cold front should extend from the western low over north-central TX, through another over southwestern or south-central MS, across the MS Gulf Coast, arching to the east-central and south-central Gulf. ...Western Gulf Coast... An ongoing band of thunderstorms is moving across parts of the middle/lower TX Coast, roughly between Baffin Bay and the Brazos River. The northern part is impinging on outflow from an earlier complex now over the Gulf south of BPT, which will limit severe-wind potential, and the mode should preclude substantial hail. A few strong gusts or instances of hail approaching severe limits may occur with this activity before it moves offshore, with drying aloft likely limiting development upshear. Substantial clouds and precip should preclude favorable destabilization for overland severe farther east. Sufficient shear and instability to support supercells are possible over the open Gulf, but any associated organized severe threat should remain away from land areas through the end of the period. ...Northeast TX to east-central OK... A band of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms is expected to develop over parts of east-central/southeastern OK and north TX east of I-35 during midday to early afternoon. Activity should persist through much of the afternoon, and shift slowly eastward, while embedded cells move largely northward. Convection should occur amidst diurnally/diabatically weakened MLCINH, behind an arc of morning clouds/precip, and along the eastern rim of a midlevel dry slot that provides preconvective clearing/heating opportunity. Relatively low tops (near 400 mb) are expected for convection in this region -- some of which should be surface-based. Cold air aloft (around -22 to -24 deg C at 500 mb) will enable sufficiently steep midlevel lapse rates, above residual moisture with 50s F surface dewpoints, for a narrow plume of around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE, despite cool (upper 50s to mid 60s F) inflow-layer surface temperatures. Forecast wind profiles indicate weak deep/ effective shear and reversely curved hodographs with limited positive SRH, though thermally enhanced low-level vorticity may maximize in the corridor. The most vigorous cells may produce small hail and strong gusts, and perhaps funnel clouds. Organized severe potential appears too conditional and low to assign outlook-threshold probabilities at this time. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible today from the western Gulf Coast to parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS, with strong ridging from central Canada southeastward across the Ohio Valley to the Southeast. The southern part of the ridging will erode laterally as a strong shortwave trough -- initially located over parts of southern NM and west TX -- pivots through cyclonic flow around a closed 500-mb low now near CAO. The shortwave trough will strengthen and become the dominant closed cyclone centered near SHV by the end of the period, along an extensive larger-scale trough from the central Rockies to the south-central Gulf. At 11Z, the surface analysis showed a low in the CAO/DRT area, stacked with the 500-mb center. An occluded front was drawn across the northeastern TX Panhandle, southwestern OK, and western north TX, with cold front over south-central TX into southern Coahuila. A warm front was analyzed from the central to northwestern Gulf to just off the upper TX Coast, becoming diffuse amongst convective processes and outflows further northwest. An elongated area of low pressure was drawn over the lower TX Coast. That coastal low should shift northeastward to just offshore from the west-central part of the LA coastline by 00Z, with cold front arching southward and southwestward across the western Gulf. Meanwhile, the occluded low should drift southeastward over the TX Panhandle, with the occluded front reaching parts of northwest, north-central and southeast TX. By 12Z tomorrow, the occluded/cold front should extend from the western low over north-central TX, through another over southwestern or south-central MS, across the MS Gulf Coast, arching to the east-central and south-central Gulf. ...Western Gulf Coast... An ongoing band of thunderstorms is moving across parts of the middle/lower TX Coast, roughly between Baffin Bay and the Brazos River. The northern part is impinging on outflow from an earlier complex now over the Gulf south of BPT, which will limit severe-wind potential, and the mode should preclude substantial hail. A few strong gusts or instances of hail approaching severe limits may occur with this activity before it moves offshore, with drying aloft likely limiting development upshear. Substantial clouds and precip should preclude favorable destabilization for overland severe farther east. Sufficient shear and instability to support supercells are possible over the open Gulf, but any associated organized severe threat should remain away from land areas through the end of the period. ...Northeast TX to east-central OK... A band of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms is expected to develop over parts of east-central/southeastern OK and north TX east of I-35 during midday to early afternoon. Activity should persist through much of the afternoon, and shift slowly eastward, while embedded cells move largely northward. Convection should occur amidst diurnally/diabatically weakened MLCINH, behind an arc of morning clouds/precip, and along the eastern rim of a midlevel dry slot that provides preconvective clearing/heating opportunity. Relatively low tops (near 400 mb) are expected for convection in this region -- some of which should be surface-based. Cold air aloft (around -22 to -24 deg C at 500 mb) will enable sufficiently steep midlevel lapse rates, above residual moisture with 50s F surface dewpoints, for a narrow plume of around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE, despite cool (upper 50s to mid 60s F) inflow-layer surface temperatures. Forecast wind profiles indicate weak deep/ effective shear and reversely curved hodographs with limited positive SRH, though thermally enhanced low-level vorticity may maximize in the corridor. The most vigorous cells may produce small hail and strong gusts, and perhaps funnel clouds. Organized severe potential appears too conditional and low to assign outlook-threshold probabilities at this time. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible today from the western Gulf Coast to parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS, with strong ridging from central Canada southeastward across the Ohio Valley to the Southeast. The southern part of the ridging will erode laterally as a strong shortwave trough -- initially located over parts of southern NM and west TX -- pivots through cyclonic flow around a closed 500-mb low now near CAO. The shortwave trough will strengthen and become the dominant closed cyclone centered near SHV by the end of the period, along an extensive larger-scale trough from the central Rockies to the south-central Gulf. At 11Z, the surface analysis showed a low in the CAO/DRT area, stacked with the 500-mb center. An occluded front was drawn across the northeastern TX Panhandle, southwestern OK, and western north TX, with cold front over south-central TX into southern Coahuila. A warm front was analyzed from the central to northwestern Gulf to just off the upper TX Coast, becoming diffuse amongst convective processes and outflows further northwest. An elongated area of low pressure was drawn over the lower TX Coast. That coastal low should shift northeastward to just offshore from the west-central part of the LA coastline by 00Z, with cold front arching southward and southwestward across the western Gulf. Meanwhile, the occluded low should drift southeastward over the TX Panhandle, with the occluded front reaching parts of northwest, north-central and southeast TX. By 12Z tomorrow, the occluded/cold front should extend from the western low over north-central TX, through another over southwestern or south-central MS, across the MS Gulf Coast, arching to the east-central and south-central Gulf. ...Western Gulf Coast... An ongoing band of thunderstorms is moving across parts of the middle/lower TX Coast, roughly between Baffin Bay and the Brazos River. The northern part is impinging on outflow from an earlier complex now over the Gulf south of BPT, which will limit severe-wind potential, and the mode should preclude substantial hail. A few strong gusts or instances of hail approaching severe limits may occur with this activity before it moves offshore, with drying aloft likely limiting development upshear. Substantial clouds and precip should preclude favorable destabilization for overland severe farther east. Sufficient shear and instability to support supercells are possible over the open Gulf, but any associated organized severe threat should remain away from land areas through the end of the period. ...Northeast TX to east-central OK... A band of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms is expected to develop over parts of east-central/southeastern OK and north TX east of I-35 during midday to early afternoon. Activity should persist through much of the afternoon, and shift slowly eastward, while embedded cells move largely northward. Convection should occur amidst diurnally/diabatically weakened MLCINH, behind an arc of morning clouds/precip, and along the eastern rim of a midlevel dry slot that provides preconvective clearing/heating opportunity. Relatively low tops (near 400 mb) are expected for convection in this region -- some of which should be surface-based. Cold air aloft (around -22 to -24 deg C at 500 mb) will enable sufficiently steep midlevel lapse rates, above residual moisture with 50s F surface dewpoints, for a narrow plume of around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE, despite cool (upper 50s to mid 60s F) inflow-layer surface temperatures. Forecast wind profiles indicate weak deep/ effective shear and reversely curved hodographs with limited positive SRH, though thermally enhanced low-level vorticity may maximize in the corridor. The most vigorous cells may produce small hail and strong gusts, and perhaps funnel clouds. Organized severe potential appears too conditional and low to assign outlook-threshold probabilities at this time. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible today from the western Gulf Coast to parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS, with strong ridging from central Canada southeastward across the Ohio Valley to the Southeast. The southern part of the ridging will erode laterally as a strong shortwave trough -- initially located over parts of southern NM and west TX -- pivots through cyclonic flow around a closed 500-mb low now near CAO. The shortwave trough will strengthen and become the dominant closed cyclone centered near SHV by the end of the period, along an extensive larger-scale trough from the central Rockies to the south-central Gulf. At 11Z, the surface analysis showed a low in the CAO/DRT area, stacked with the 500-mb center. An occluded front was drawn across the northeastern TX Panhandle, southwestern OK, and western north TX, with cold front over south-central TX into southern Coahuila. A warm front was analyzed from the central to northwestern Gulf to just off the upper TX Coast, becoming diffuse amongst convective processes and outflows further northwest. An elongated area of low pressure was drawn over the lower TX Coast. That coastal low should shift northeastward to just offshore from the west-central part of the LA coastline by 00Z, with cold front arching southward and southwestward across the western Gulf. Meanwhile, the occluded low should drift southeastward over the TX Panhandle, with the occluded front reaching parts of northwest, north-central and southeast TX. By 12Z tomorrow, the occluded/cold front should extend from the western low over north-central TX, through another over southwestern or south-central MS, across the MS Gulf Coast, arching to the east-central and south-central Gulf. ...Western Gulf Coast... An ongoing band of thunderstorms is moving across parts of the middle/lower TX Coast, roughly between Baffin Bay and the Brazos River. The northern part is impinging on outflow from an earlier complex now over the Gulf south of BPT, which will limit severe-wind potential, and the mode should preclude substantial hail. A few strong gusts or instances of hail approaching severe limits may occur with this activity before it moves offshore, with drying aloft likely limiting development upshear. Substantial clouds and precip should preclude favorable destabilization for overland severe farther east. Sufficient shear and instability to support supercells are possible over the open Gulf, but any associated organized severe threat should remain away from land areas through the end of the period. ...Northeast TX to east-central OK... A band of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms is expected to develop over parts of east-central/southeastern OK and north TX east of I-35 during midday to early afternoon. Activity should persist through much of the afternoon, and shift slowly eastward, while embedded cells move largely northward. Convection should occur amidst diurnally/diabatically weakened MLCINH, behind an arc of morning clouds/precip, and along the eastern rim of a midlevel dry slot that provides preconvective clearing/heating opportunity. Relatively low tops (near 400 mb) are expected for convection in this region -- some of which should be surface-based. Cold air aloft (around -22 to -24 deg C at 500 mb) will enable sufficiently steep midlevel lapse rates, above residual moisture with 50s F surface dewpoints, for a narrow plume of around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE, despite cool (upper 50s to mid 60s F) inflow-layer surface temperatures. Forecast wind profiles indicate weak deep/ effective shear and reversely curved hodographs with limited positive SRH, though thermally enhanced low-level vorticity may maximize in the corridor. The most vigorous cells may produce small hail and strong gusts, and perhaps funnel clouds. Organized severe potential appears too conditional and low to assign outlook-threshold probabilities at this time. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible today from the western Gulf Coast to parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS, with strong ridging from central Canada southeastward across the Ohio Valley to the Southeast. The southern part of the ridging will erode laterally as a strong shortwave trough -- initially located over parts of southern NM and west TX -- pivots through cyclonic flow around a closed 500-mb low now near CAO. The shortwave trough will strengthen and become the dominant closed cyclone centered near SHV by the end of the period, along an extensive larger-scale trough from the central Rockies to the south-central Gulf. At 11Z, the surface analysis showed a low in the CAO/DRT area, stacked with the 500-mb center. An occluded front was drawn across the northeastern TX Panhandle, southwestern OK, and western north TX, with cold front over south-central TX into southern Coahuila. A warm front was analyzed from the central to northwestern Gulf to just off the upper TX Coast, becoming diffuse amongst convective processes and outflows further northwest. An elongated area of low pressure was drawn over the lower TX Coast. That coastal low should shift northeastward to just offshore from the west-central part of the LA coastline by 00Z, with cold front arching southward and southwestward across the western Gulf. Meanwhile, the occluded low should drift southeastward over the TX Panhandle, with the occluded front reaching parts of northwest, north-central and southeast TX. By 12Z tomorrow, the occluded/cold front should extend from the western low over north-central TX, through another over southwestern or south-central MS, across the MS Gulf Coast, arching to the east-central and south-central Gulf. ...Western Gulf Coast... An ongoing band of thunderstorms is moving across parts of the middle/lower TX Coast, roughly between Baffin Bay and the Brazos River. The northern part is impinging on outflow from an earlier complex now over the Gulf south of BPT, which will limit severe-wind potential, and the mode should preclude substantial hail. A few strong gusts or instances of hail approaching severe limits may occur with this activity before it moves offshore, with drying aloft likely limiting development upshear. Substantial clouds and precip should preclude favorable destabilization for overland severe farther east. Sufficient shear and instability to support supercells are possible over the open Gulf, but any associated organized severe threat should remain away from land areas through the end of the period. ...Northeast TX to east-central OK... A band of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms is expected to develop over parts of east-central/southeastern OK and north TX east of I-35 during midday to early afternoon. Activity should persist through much of the afternoon, and shift slowly eastward, while embedded cells move largely northward. Convection should occur amidst diurnally/diabatically weakened MLCINH, behind an arc of morning clouds/precip, and along the eastern rim of a midlevel dry slot that provides preconvective clearing/heating opportunity. Relatively low tops (near 400 mb) are expected for convection in this region -- some of which should be surface-based. Cold air aloft (around -22 to -24 deg C at 500 mb) will enable sufficiently steep midlevel lapse rates, above residual moisture with 50s F surface dewpoints, for a narrow plume of around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE, despite cool (upper 50s to mid 60s F) inflow-layer surface temperatures. Forecast wind profiles indicate weak deep/ effective shear and reversely curved hodographs with limited positive SRH, though thermally enhanced low-level vorticity may maximize in the corridor. The most vigorous cells may produce small hail and strong gusts, and perhaps funnel clouds. Organized severe potential appears too conditional and low to assign outlook-threshold probabilities at this time. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 02/03/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Negligible severe potential is expected through D4-5, with some increase possible late in the week. Northerly low-level winds over the Gulf will persist into D4 before modified return flow ensues across the western Gulf. Decent large-scale agreement continues across guidance with the progression of an upper trough off the CA coast. This trough should eject over the Southwest before reaching the north-central states around D6. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will commence over the central High Plains and then track northeast into the Upper Midwest. A fast southwesterly mid-level jet will spread across the southern Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. This should overlap the northern extent of the modifying warm-moist sector ahead of a Pacific cold front/dryline. Instability progs appear rather limited amid weak mid-level lapse rates atop the warm-moist sector on D6. But given the fast flow regime and consensus convective signal for thunderstorms in the Ark-La-Tex to Mid-South vicinity on D6, an isolated severe threat is plausible. In the wake of the aforementioned upper trough, guidance spread increases with upstream shortwave impulses over the West. It is possible that richer Gulf moisture and a broader warm-moist sector will be present over the south-central states. This would seemingly foster more appreciable severe potential around next weekend with any waves that can eject east of the southern Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Negligible severe potential is expected through D4-5, with some increase possible late in the week. Northerly low-level winds over the Gulf will persist into D4 before modified return flow ensues across the western Gulf. Decent large-scale agreement continues across guidance with the progression of an upper trough off the CA coast. This trough should eject over the Southwest before reaching the north-central states around D6. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will commence over the central High Plains and then track northeast into the Upper Midwest. A fast southwesterly mid-level jet will spread across the southern Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. This should overlap the northern extent of the modifying warm-moist sector ahead of a Pacific cold front/dryline. Instability progs appear rather limited amid weak mid-level lapse rates atop the warm-moist sector on D6. But given the fast flow regime and consensus convective signal for thunderstorms in the Ark-La-Tex to Mid-South vicinity on D6, an isolated severe threat is plausible. In the wake of the aforementioned upper trough, guidance spread increases with upstream shortwave impulses over the West. It is possible that richer Gulf moisture and a broader warm-moist sector will be present over the south-central states. This would seemingly foster more appreciable severe potential around next weekend with any waves that can eject east of the southern Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Negligible severe potential is expected through D4-5, with some increase possible late in the week. Northerly low-level winds over the Gulf will persist into D4 before modified return flow ensues across the western Gulf. Decent large-scale agreement continues across guidance with the progression of an upper trough off the CA coast. This trough should eject over the Southwest before reaching the north-central states around D6. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will commence over the central High Plains and then track northeast into the Upper Midwest. A fast southwesterly mid-level jet will spread across the southern Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. This should overlap the northern extent of the modifying warm-moist sector ahead of a Pacific cold front/dryline. Instability progs appear rather limited amid weak mid-level lapse rates atop the warm-moist sector on D6. But given the fast flow regime and consensus convective signal for thunderstorms in the Ark-La-Tex to Mid-South vicinity on D6, an isolated severe threat is plausible. In the wake of the aforementioned upper trough, guidance spread increases with upstream shortwave impulses over the West. It is possible that richer Gulf moisture and a broader warm-moist sector will be present over the south-central states. This would seemingly foster more appreciable severe potential around next weekend with any waves that can eject east of the southern Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Negligible severe potential is expected through D4-5, with some increase possible late in the week. Northerly low-level winds over the Gulf will persist into D4 before modified return flow ensues across the western Gulf. Decent large-scale agreement continues across guidance with the progression of an upper trough off the CA coast. This trough should eject over the Southwest before reaching the north-central states around D6. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will commence over the central High Plains and then track northeast into the Upper Midwest. A fast southwesterly mid-level jet will spread across the southern Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. This should overlap the northern extent of the modifying warm-moist sector ahead of a Pacific cold front/dryline. Instability progs appear rather limited amid weak mid-level lapse rates atop the warm-moist sector on D6. But given the fast flow regime and consensus convective signal for thunderstorms in the Ark-La-Tex to Mid-South vicinity on D6, an isolated severe threat is plausible. In the wake of the aforementioned upper trough, guidance spread increases with upstream shortwave impulses over the West. It is possible that richer Gulf moisture and a broader warm-moist sector will be present over the south-central states. This would seemingly foster more appreciable severe potential around next weekend with any waves that can eject east of the southern Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Negligible severe potential is expected through D4-5, with some increase possible late in the week. Northerly low-level winds over the Gulf will persist into D4 before modified return flow ensues across the western Gulf. Decent large-scale agreement continues across guidance with the progression of an upper trough off the CA coast. This trough should eject over the Southwest before reaching the north-central states around D6. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will commence over the central High Plains and then track northeast into the Upper Midwest. A fast southwesterly mid-level jet will spread across the southern Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. This should overlap the northern extent of the modifying warm-moist sector ahead of a Pacific cold front/dryline. Instability progs appear rather limited amid weak mid-level lapse rates atop the warm-moist sector on D6. But given the fast flow regime and consensus convective signal for thunderstorms in the Ark-La-Tex to Mid-South vicinity on D6, an isolated severe threat is plausible. In the wake of the aforementioned upper trough, guidance spread increases with upstream shortwave impulses over the West. It is possible that richer Gulf moisture and a broader warm-moist sector will be present over the south-central states. This would seemingly foster more appreciable severe potential around next weekend with any waves that can eject east of the southern Rockies. Read more