Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...FL... A mid-level closed low over the northeast Gulf or FL Panhandle at 12Z Monday will gradually fill as it moves east across the peninsula and into the western Atlantic. Cool surface temperatures will limit instability, but the mid-level cold core should support a meagerly unstable air mass with MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg. Scattered, low-topped convection with embedded thunderstorms will be possible during the first half of the period. Across south FL, a unidirectional southwesterly wind profile is anticipated. With an elongated mid/upper-level hodograph overlapping the upper portion of the thin buoyancy profile, sub-severe hail is plausible. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D2 and decay substantially into D3 as it moves north near the OR coast before dissipating. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited and with weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. Small hail might occur in the more robust of the low-topped convective cells over the Central Valley to the coast. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...FL... A mid-level closed low over the northeast Gulf or FL Panhandle at 12Z Monday will gradually fill as it moves east across the peninsula and into the western Atlantic. Cool surface temperatures will limit instability, but the mid-level cold core should support a meagerly unstable air mass with MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg. Scattered, low-topped convection with embedded thunderstorms will be possible during the first half of the period. Across south FL, a unidirectional southwesterly wind profile is anticipated. With an elongated mid/upper-level hodograph overlapping the upper portion of the thin buoyancy profile, sub-severe hail is plausible. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D2 and decay substantially into D3 as it moves north near the OR coast before dissipating. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited and with weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. Small hail might occur in the more robust of the low-topped convective cells over the Central Valley to the coast. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...FL... A mid-level closed low over the northeast Gulf or FL Panhandle at 12Z Monday will gradually fill as it moves east across the peninsula and into the western Atlantic. Cool surface temperatures will limit instability, but the mid-level cold core should support a meagerly unstable air mass with MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg. Scattered, low-topped convection with embedded thunderstorms will be possible during the first half of the period. Across south FL, a unidirectional southwesterly wind profile is anticipated. With an elongated mid/upper-level hodograph overlapping the upper portion of the thin buoyancy profile, sub-severe hail is plausible. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D2 and decay substantially into D3 as it moves north near the OR coast before dissipating. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited and with weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. Small hail might occur in the more robust of the low-topped convective cells over the Central Valley to the coast. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...FL... A mid-level closed low over the northeast Gulf or FL Panhandle at 12Z Monday will gradually fill as it moves east across the peninsula and into the western Atlantic. Cool surface temperatures will limit instability, but the mid-level cold core should support a meagerly unstable air mass with MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg. Scattered, low-topped convection with embedded thunderstorms will be possible during the first half of the period. Across south FL, a unidirectional southwesterly wind profile is anticipated. With an elongated mid/upper-level hodograph overlapping the upper portion of the thin buoyancy profile, sub-severe hail is plausible. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D2 and decay substantially into D3 as it moves north near the OR coast before dissipating. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited and with weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. Small hail might occur in the more robust of the low-topped convective cells over the Central Valley to the coast. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...FL... A mid-level closed low over the northeast Gulf or FL Panhandle at 12Z Monday will gradually fill as it moves east across the peninsula and into the western Atlantic. Cool surface temperatures will limit instability, but the mid-level cold core should support a meagerly unstable air mass with MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg. Scattered, low-topped convection with embedded thunderstorms will be possible during the first half of the period. Across south FL, a unidirectional southwesterly wind profile is anticipated. With an elongated mid/upper-level hodograph overlapping the upper portion of the thin buoyancy profile, sub-severe hail is plausible. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D2 and decay substantially into D3 as it moves north near the OR coast before dissipating. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited and with weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. Small hail might occur in the more robust of the low-topped convective cells over the Central Valley to the coast. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread much of western into far southern Texas tomorrow/Sunday as a coupled surface and upper-level cyclone ejects into the Gulf of Mexico. RH may dip to 15 percent in spots by afternoon peak heating as sustained northwesterly surface wind speeds increase to 25 mph. Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of far southern Texas, where the best overlap of potential Elevated to locally Critical surface meteorological conditions may develop. Therefore, fire weather highlights are being withheld for now until rainfall totals and their associated impacts on fuel receptiveness can be assessed. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread much of western into far southern Texas tomorrow/Sunday as a coupled surface and upper-level cyclone ejects into the Gulf of Mexico. RH may dip to 15 percent in spots by afternoon peak heating as sustained northwesterly surface wind speeds increase to 25 mph. Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of far southern Texas, where the best overlap of potential Elevated to locally Critical surface meteorological conditions may develop. Therefore, fire weather highlights are being withheld for now until rainfall totals and their associated impacts on fuel receptiveness can be assessed. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread much of western into far southern Texas tomorrow/Sunday as a coupled surface and upper-level cyclone ejects into the Gulf of Mexico. RH may dip to 15 percent in spots by afternoon peak heating as sustained northwesterly surface wind speeds increase to 25 mph. Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of far southern Texas, where the best overlap of potential Elevated to locally Critical surface meteorological conditions may develop. Therefore, fire weather highlights are being withheld for now until rainfall totals and their associated impacts on fuel receptiveness can be assessed. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread much of western into far southern Texas tomorrow/Sunday as a coupled surface and upper-level cyclone ejects into the Gulf of Mexico. RH may dip to 15 percent in spots by afternoon peak heating as sustained northwesterly surface wind speeds increase to 25 mph. Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of far southern Texas, where the best overlap of potential Elevated to locally Critical surface meteorological conditions may develop. Therefore, fire weather highlights are being withheld for now until rainfall totals and their associated impacts on fuel receptiveness can be assessed. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A stacked surface-500 mb low will traverse central TX and approach the lower MS Valley today, promoting widespread dry westerly surface flow to portions of western into south-central TX. Sustained surface winds may approach 30 mph at times, and RH may dip to 15 percent in spots. While much of the region has experienced appreciable rainfall, the Rio Grande area has received less rain compared to points farther north and east. Elevated highlights remain in place where relatively minimal rainfall has occurred. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A stacked surface-500 mb low will traverse central TX and approach the lower MS Valley today, promoting widespread dry westerly surface flow to portions of western into south-central TX. Sustained surface winds may approach 30 mph at times, and RH may dip to 15 percent in spots. While much of the region has experienced appreciable rainfall, the Rio Grande area has received less rain compared to points farther north and east. Elevated highlights remain in place where relatively minimal rainfall has occurred. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A stacked surface-500 mb low will traverse central TX and approach the lower MS Valley today, promoting widespread dry westerly surface flow to portions of western into south-central TX. Sustained surface winds may approach 30 mph at times, and RH may dip to 15 percent in spots. While much of the region has experienced appreciable rainfall, the Rio Grande area has received less rain compared to points farther north and east. Elevated highlights remain in place where relatively minimal rainfall has occurred. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A stacked surface-500 mb low will traverse central TX and approach the lower MS Valley today, promoting widespread dry westerly surface flow to portions of western into south-central TX. Sustained surface winds may approach 30 mph at times, and RH may dip to 15 percent in spots. While much of the region has experienced appreciable rainfall, the Rio Grande area has received less rain compared to points farther north and east. Elevated highlights remain in place where relatively minimal rainfall has occurred. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two is also possible along a portion of the coastal central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...FL Peninsula... Guidance trends have shifted towards a bimodal setup for severe potential on Sunday. An MCS is expected to be ongoing over parts of the eastern Gulf, within a corridor of strongly forced large-scale ascent ahead of an intense mid-level jet impinging from the central Gulf. Given the presence of 50s surface dew points currently across the FL Peninsula, substantial moistening will be required and should generally be coincident with the remnants of the MCS overspreading the peninsula through midday. The southern portion of the MCS across the Keys and south FL will have access to greater moistening. This should be coupled with an enlarged low-level hodograph translating east in the warm conveyor, supporting potential for a couple tornadoes. Timing of the MCS with relation to the diurnal cycle, and how much richer moisture can surge ahead of it, will both be critical for the tornado threat. Farther north over central to north FL, in the wake of the decaying morning MCS remnants, intrusion of the mid-level dry slot, accompanied by steep lapse rates shifting east from northeast Gulf, should result in a favorable coupling with peak heating boundary-layer destabilization. With the well-advertised secondary cyclogenesis occurring across the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle, the effective warm front across north-central FL should focus afternoon severe thunderstorm potential. The deep-layer shear and lapse rates would conditionally favor potential for a few supercells capable of isolated large hail. The tornado threat should be favored close to the warm front, prior to warm sector low-level flow becoming veered. Storm motions should yield convection tending to spread away from the surface-based instability plume over central FL. A mesoscale corridor of greater hail/tornado probabilities may become highlighted in later outlooks. ..Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late Saturday into Sunday off the central CA coast. In the wake of the heavy-rain swath, within a pronounced low-level warm conveyor, meager surface-based destabilization should occur along the immediate central CA coast. With greater consistency across guidance, a brief tornado and/or a severe gust attendant to low-topped, lightning-producing convection may develop in the afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two is also possible along a portion of the coastal central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...FL Peninsula... Guidance trends have shifted towards a bimodal setup for severe potential on Sunday. An MCS is expected to be ongoing over parts of the eastern Gulf, within a corridor of strongly forced large-scale ascent ahead of an intense mid-level jet impinging from the central Gulf. Given the presence of 50s surface dew points currently across the FL Peninsula, substantial moistening will be required and should generally be coincident with the remnants of the MCS overspreading the peninsula through midday. The southern portion of the MCS across the Keys and south FL will have access to greater moistening. This should be coupled with an enlarged low-level hodograph translating east in the warm conveyor, supporting potential for a couple tornadoes. Timing of the MCS with relation to the diurnal cycle, and how much richer moisture can surge ahead of it, will both be critical for the tornado threat. Farther north over central to north FL, in the wake of the decaying morning MCS remnants, intrusion of the mid-level dry slot, accompanied by steep lapse rates shifting east from northeast Gulf, should result in a favorable coupling with peak heating boundary-layer destabilization. With the well-advertised secondary cyclogenesis occurring across the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle, the effective warm front across north-central FL should focus afternoon severe thunderstorm potential. The deep-layer shear and lapse rates would conditionally favor potential for a few supercells capable of isolated large hail. The tornado threat should be favored close to the warm front, prior to warm sector low-level flow becoming veered. Storm motions should yield convection tending to spread away from the surface-based instability plume over central FL. A mesoscale corridor of greater hail/tornado probabilities may become highlighted in later outlooks. ..Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late Saturday into Sunday off the central CA coast. In the wake of the heavy-rain swath, within a pronounced low-level warm conveyor, meager surface-based destabilization should occur along the immediate central CA coast. With greater consistency across guidance, a brief tornado and/or a severe gust attendant to low-topped, lightning-producing convection may develop in the afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two is also possible along a portion of the coastal central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...FL Peninsula... Guidance trends have shifted towards a bimodal setup for severe potential on Sunday. An MCS is expected to be ongoing over parts of the eastern Gulf, within a corridor of strongly forced large-scale ascent ahead of an intense mid-level jet impinging from the central Gulf. Given the presence of 50s surface dew points currently across the FL Peninsula, substantial moistening will be required and should generally be coincident with the remnants of the MCS overspreading the peninsula through midday. The southern portion of the MCS across the Keys and south FL will have access to greater moistening. This should be coupled with an enlarged low-level hodograph translating east in the warm conveyor, supporting potential for a couple tornadoes. Timing of the MCS with relation to the diurnal cycle, and how much richer moisture can surge ahead of it, will both be critical for the tornado threat. Farther north over central to north FL, in the wake of the decaying morning MCS remnants, intrusion of the mid-level dry slot, accompanied by steep lapse rates shifting east from northeast Gulf, should result in a favorable coupling with peak heating boundary-layer destabilization. With the well-advertised secondary cyclogenesis occurring across the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle, the effective warm front across north-central FL should focus afternoon severe thunderstorm potential. The deep-layer shear and lapse rates would conditionally favor potential for a few supercells capable of isolated large hail. The tornado threat should be favored close to the warm front, prior to warm sector low-level flow becoming veered. Storm motions should yield convection tending to spread away from the surface-based instability plume over central FL. A mesoscale corridor of greater hail/tornado probabilities may become highlighted in later outlooks. ..Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late Saturday into Sunday off the central CA coast. In the wake of the heavy-rain swath, within a pronounced low-level warm conveyor, meager surface-based destabilization should occur along the immediate central CA coast. With greater consistency across guidance, a brief tornado and/or a severe gust attendant to low-topped, lightning-producing convection may develop in the afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two is also possible along a portion of the coastal central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...FL Peninsula... Guidance trends have shifted towards a bimodal setup for severe potential on Sunday. An MCS is expected to be ongoing over parts of the eastern Gulf, within a corridor of strongly forced large-scale ascent ahead of an intense mid-level jet impinging from the central Gulf. Given the presence of 50s surface dew points currently across the FL Peninsula, substantial moistening will be required and should generally be coincident with the remnants of the MCS overspreading the peninsula through midday. The southern portion of the MCS across the Keys and south FL will have access to greater moistening. This should be coupled with an enlarged low-level hodograph translating east in the warm conveyor, supporting potential for a couple tornadoes. Timing of the MCS with relation to the diurnal cycle, and how much richer moisture can surge ahead of it, will both be critical for the tornado threat. Farther north over central to north FL, in the wake of the decaying morning MCS remnants, intrusion of the mid-level dry slot, accompanied by steep lapse rates shifting east from northeast Gulf, should result in a favorable coupling with peak heating boundary-layer destabilization. With the well-advertised secondary cyclogenesis occurring across the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle, the effective warm front across north-central FL should focus afternoon severe thunderstorm potential. The deep-layer shear and lapse rates would conditionally favor potential for a few supercells capable of isolated large hail. The tornado threat should be favored close to the warm front, prior to warm sector low-level flow becoming veered. Storm motions should yield convection tending to spread away from the surface-based instability plume over central FL. A mesoscale corridor of greater hail/tornado probabilities may become highlighted in later outlooks. ..Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late Saturday into Sunday off the central CA coast. In the wake of the heavy-rain swath, within a pronounced low-level warm conveyor, meager surface-based destabilization should occur along the immediate central CA coast. With greater consistency across guidance, a brief tornado and/or a severe gust attendant to low-topped, lightning-producing convection may develop in the afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

MD 0103 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0103 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Areas affected...southeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 030547Z - 030715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A line of storms may produce strong to locally severe gusts over southeast Texas over the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...A line of storms is quickly surging east across southeast TX, with widespread rain ahead of the system. Surface temperatures are relatively cool with a saturated boundary layer, but lower 60 F dewpoints are contributing to weak buoyancy. Given the longevity of the outflow surge, this may be sufficient to support a continuation toward the upper TX Coast later tonight. Overall storm trends appear down over the last half hour, and as such, a watch is not anticipated. However, a few strong winds gusts, perhaps locally damaging, may occur with the passage of this system. ..Jewell.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP... LAT...LON 28889717 29149664 29489648 29869662 30179640 30149613 30029537 29769506 29479468 29299462 28859517 28629575 28659632 28759702 28889717 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EARLY TODAY NEAR MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development posing some risk for severe hail and wind might still impact portions of mid and upper Texas coastal areas into mid morning, before generally becoming confined to the northwestern through central Gulf of Mexico later today through tonight. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an anomalous, blocking mid/upper high, centered over the Upper Midwest, will generally be maintained through this period. Downstream of this feature, one cyclone appears likely to move little, offshore of the northern Atlantic coast. Upstream, a deepening surface cyclone may approach the central California coast today through tonight, coincident with at least some further amplification of mid/upper flow across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into southwestern North America. This likely will include building ridging inland of the California coast, and across the Baja California vicinity, into the U.S. Great Basin and northwestern Mexican Plateau. In response to these developments, a mid-level low, still in the process of evolving to the east of the southern Rockies, is forecast to elongate southeastward across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity today through early Sunday. As this occurs, it appears that the ongoing southerly return flow, off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf of Mexico, into southern Great Plains, will become cut off, probably by mid to late morning. ...Northwestern Gulf Coast... Forcing for ascent, in the exit region of a strong digging mid/upper jet, may maintain vigorous thunderstorm development near mid/upper Texas coastal areas into the 12-15Z time frame this morning. However, based on latest model output, it is appearing increasingly probable that this will be rooted above at least a shallow stable surface-based layer, in an environment otherwise only perhaps marginally supportive of severe hail and/or wind gusts. By late morning, if not earlier, through the remainder of the period, the high resolution ensemble output (among other guidance) suggests that potential for strong thunderstorm development will generally become confined to the northwestern into central Gulf of Mexico. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EARLY TODAY NEAR MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development posing some risk for severe hail and wind might still impact portions of mid and upper Texas coastal areas into mid morning, before generally becoming confined to the northwestern through central Gulf of Mexico later today through tonight. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an anomalous, blocking mid/upper high, centered over the Upper Midwest, will generally be maintained through this period. Downstream of this feature, one cyclone appears likely to move little, offshore of the northern Atlantic coast. Upstream, a deepening surface cyclone may approach the central California coast today through tonight, coincident with at least some further amplification of mid/upper flow across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into southwestern North America. This likely will include building ridging inland of the California coast, and across the Baja California vicinity, into the U.S. Great Basin and northwestern Mexican Plateau. In response to these developments, a mid-level low, still in the process of evolving to the east of the southern Rockies, is forecast to elongate southeastward across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity today through early Sunday. As this occurs, it appears that the ongoing southerly return flow, off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf of Mexico, into southern Great Plains, will become cut off, probably by mid to late morning. ...Northwestern Gulf Coast... Forcing for ascent, in the exit region of a strong digging mid/upper jet, may maintain vigorous thunderstorm development near mid/upper Texas coastal areas into the 12-15Z time frame this morning. However, based on latest model output, it is appearing increasingly probable that this will be rooted above at least a shallow stable surface-based layer, in an environment otherwise only perhaps marginally supportive of severe hail and/or wind gusts. By late morning, if not earlier, through the remainder of the period, the high resolution ensemble output (among other guidance) suggests that potential for strong thunderstorm development will generally become confined to the northwestern into central Gulf of Mexico. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 Read more