Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low will dig southward very near the northern and central CA Coast on Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE and ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads this region. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, also remains apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass will slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest through Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume should remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s expected. Still, a low-amplitude shortwave trough that will eject across the northern/central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest, with a related weak surface low forecast to be located along/near the MO/IA border Friday evening. These features should provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday evening into early Saturday morning from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low will dig southward very near the northern and central CA Coast on Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE and ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads this region. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, also remains apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass will slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest through Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume should remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s expected. Still, a low-amplitude shortwave trough that will eject across the northern/central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest, with a related weak surface low forecast to be located along/near the MO/IA border Friday evening. These features should provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday evening into early Saturday morning from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low will dig southward very near the northern and central CA Coast on Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE and ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads this region. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, also remains apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass will slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest through Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume should remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s expected. Still, a low-amplitude shortwave trough that will eject across the northern/central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest, with a related weak surface low forecast to be located along/near the MO/IA border Friday evening. These features should provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday evening into early Saturday morning from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low will dig southward very near the northern and central CA Coast on Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE and ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads this region. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, also remains apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass will slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest through Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume should remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s expected. Still, a low-amplitude shortwave trough that will eject across the northern/central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest, with a related weak surface low forecast to be located along/near the MO/IA border Friday evening. These features should provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday evening into early Saturday morning from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low will dig southward very near the northern and central CA Coast on Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE and ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads this region. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, also remains apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass will slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest through Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume should remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s expected. Still, a low-amplitude shortwave trough that will eject across the northern/central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest, with a related weak surface low forecast to be located along/near the MO/IA border Friday evening. These features should provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday evening into early Saturday morning from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low will dig southward very near the northern and central CA Coast on Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE and ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads this region. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, also remains apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass will slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest through Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume should remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s expected. Still, a low-amplitude shortwave trough that will eject across the northern/central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest, with a related weak surface low forecast to be located along/near the MO/IA border Friday evening. These features should provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday evening into early Saturday morning from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Offshore flow will dominate the Gulf/Atlantic Coasts during the day1 period as the primary synoptic front advances east ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Early in the period, surface wind shift will extend from the NC Outer Banks region, southwest across the central FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this boundary, aided in part by large-scale forcing ahead of the upper trough. While strong deep-layer flow/shear will be noted, poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy do not appear conducive for particularly robust updrafts along the advancing wind shift. Upstream across the western US, very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/northern Great Basin. 500mb jet is forecast to sag south across CA/NV/UT into the Four Corners region during the latter half of the period. As a result, very steep lapse rates will be generated north of the jet, such that weak buoyancy is expected to support scattered convection. Given the cold profiles, some risk for thunderstorms will be noted, as low-topped convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Offshore flow will dominate the Gulf/Atlantic Coasts during the day1 period as the primary synoptic front advances east ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Early in the period, surface wind shift will extend from the NC Outer Banks region, southwest across the central FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this boundary, aided in part by large-scale forcing ahead of the upper trough. While strong deep-layer flow/shear will be noted, poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy do not appear conducive for particularly robust updrafts along the advancing wind shift. Upstream across the western US, very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/northern Great Basin. 500mb jet is forecast to sag south across CA/NV/UT into the Four Corners region during the latter half of the period. As a result, very steep lapse rates will be generated north of the jet, such that weak buoyancy is expected to support scattered convection. Given the cold profiles, some risk for thunderstorms will be noted, as low-topped convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Offshore flow will dominate the Gulf/Atlantic Coasts during the day1 period as the primary synoptic front advances east ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Early in the period, surface wind shift will extend from the NC Outer Banks region, southwest across the central FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this boundary, aided in part by large-scale forcing ahead of the upper trough. While strong deep-layer flow/shear will be noted, poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy do not appear conducive for particularly robust updrafts along the advancing wind shift. Upstream across the western US, very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/northern Great Basin. 500mb jet is forecast to sag south across CA/NV/UT into the Four Corners region during the latter half of the period. As a result, very steep lapse rates will be generated north of the jet, such that weak buoyancy is expected to support scattered convection. Given the cold profiles, some risk for thunderstorms will be noted, as low-topped convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Offshore flow will dominate the Gulf/Atlantic Coasts during the day1 period as the primary synoptic front advances east ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Early in the period, surface wind shift will extend from the NC Outer Banks region, southwest across the central FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this boundary, aided in part by large-scale forcing ahead of the upper trough. While strong deep-layer flow/shear will be noted, poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy do not appear conducive for particularly robust updrafts along the advancing wind shift. Upstream across the western US, very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/northern Great Basin. 500mb jet is forecast to sag south across CA/NV/UT into the Four Corners region during the latter half of the period. As a result, very steep lapse rates will be generated north of the jet, such that weak buoyancy is expected to support scattered convection. Given the cold profiles, some risk for thunderstorms will be noted, as low-topped convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Offshore flow will dominate the Gulf/Atlantic Coasts during the day1 period as the primary synoptic front advances east ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Early in the period, surface wind shift will extend from the NC Outer Banks region, southwest across the central FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this boundary, aided in part by large-scale forcing ahead of the upper trough. While strong deep-layer flow/shear will be noted, poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy do not appear conducive for particularly robust updrafts along the advancing wind shift. Upstream across the western US, very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/northern Great Basin. 500mb jet is forecast to sag south across CA/NV/UT into the Four Corners region during the latter half of the period. As a result, very steep lapse rates will be generated north of the jet, such that weak buoyancy is expected to support scattered convection. Given the cold profiles, some risk for thunderstorms will be noted, as low-topped convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 Read more