Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Update... Some modification of the boundary layer may commence across the northeastern/eastern Gulf of Mexico overnight, in advance of a developing surface frontal low emanating from the central Gulf. High-resolution model output does indicate that the environment within the evolving warm sector of this wave may become supportive of an organizing convective cluster, which may be in the process of approaching the lower Florida Keys and southwestern/central Florida Gulf coastal areas toward 12Z. However, potentially cool/dry air still entrenched across and inland of Florida coastal areas likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence through tonight, into at least early Sunday. ..Kerr.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Update... Some modification of the boundary layer may commence across the northeastern/eastern Gulf of Mexico overnight, in advance of a developing surface frontal low emanating from the central Gulf. High-resolution model output does indicate that the environment within the evolving warm sector of this wave may become supportive of an organizing convective cluster, which may be in the process of approaching the lower Florida Keys and southwestern/central Florida Gulf coastal areas toward 12Z. However, potentially cool/dry air still entrenched across and inland of Florida coastal areas likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence through tonight, into at least early Sunday. ..Kerr.. 02/04/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 3 22:33:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 3 22:33:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Across the CONUS, amplified mid-level flow will continue through much of the extended forecast period. A prominent trough over the eastern Pacific is forecast to move inland and pass over the Southwest and southern Plains late this weekend into early/middle next week. Ascent ahead of this feature should support widespread precipitation across the western and central US. An exception to this may be across parts of southeast NM and west/southwest TX. Lower chances for wetting rain there may allow for the drying of fuels over the coming days. The strong flow aloft, and periodic lee cyclogenesis, over the southern Plains may support occasional gusty surface winds and low humidity through the remainder of the week. Localized fire-weather conditions may develop over parts of the TX Trans-Pecos and southeastern NM D6/Thursday through the end of the forecast period. However, there remains significant uncertainty on spatial/temporal coverage of any fire-weather concerns and the availability of area fuels. Otherwise, seasonably cool temperatures and widespread precipitation will limit fire-weather potential over the rest of the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Across the CONUS, amplified mid-level flow will continue through much of the extended forecast period. A prominent trough over the eastern Pacific is forecast to move inland and pass over the Southwest and southern Plains late this weekend into early/middle next week. Ascent ahead of this feature should support widespread precipitation across the western and central US. An exception to this may be across parts of southeast NM and west/southwest TX. Lower chances for wetting rain there may allow for the drying of fuels over the coming days. The strong flow aloft, and periodic lee cyclogenesis, over the southern Plains may support occasional gusty surface winds and low humidity through the remainder of the week. Localized fire-weather conditions may develop over parts of the TX Trans-Pecos and southeastern NM D6/Thursday through the end of the forecast period. However, there remains significant uncertainty on spatial/temporal coverage of any fire-weather concerns and the availability of area fuels. Otherwise, seasonably cool temperatures and widespread precipitation will limit fire-weather potential over the rest of the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Across the CONUS, amplified mid-level flow will continue through much of the extended forecast period. A prominent trough over the eastern Pacific is forecast to move inland and pass over the Southwest and southern Plains late this weekend into early/middle next week. Ascent ahead of this feature should support widespread precipitation across the western and central US. An exception to this may be across parts of southeast NM and west/southwest TX. Lower chances for wetting rain there may allow for the drying of fuels over the coming days. The strong flow aloft, and periodic lee cyclogenesis, over the southern Plains may support occasional gusty surface winds and low humidity through the remainder of the week. Localized fire-weather conditions may develop over parts of the TX Trans-Pecos and southeastern NM D6/Thursday through the end of the forecast period. However, there remains significant uncertainty on spatial/temporal coverage of any fire-weather concerns and the availability of area fuels. Otherwise, seasonably cool temperatures and widespread precipitation will limit fire-weather potential over the rest of the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon into tonight from the central Gulf Coast to parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Minor adjustments have been made to the general thunderstorm area, based on recent observational and guidance trends and the progression of convection along parts of the Gulf Coast. Otherwise, the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 02/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024/ ...Discussion... Highly amplified flow aloft will persist across the U.S. today and tonight, as a closed low at the base of an elongated/negatively tilted trough shifts east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, and toward the lower Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to cross the Gulf Coast region, with a trailing cold front advancing eastward/southeastward across the Gulf through the period. Meanwhile, a second upper trough is forecast to linger over the Canadian Maritimes, with a sharp ridge separating the two troughs, extending from the Canadian Prairie southeastward into the Southeast. Showers and a few inland thunderstorms will continue in advance of the central U.S. upper system, from the Kansas vicinity southeastward to the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. More widespread thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, over the open Gulf. While a stronger storm or two may brush the southern Louisiana coastal areas this afternoon, instability/shear combination should remain insufficient inland to support appreciable severe risk. Small hail will also be possible with a stronger storm or two this afternoon in the low-topped convection/cold-core regime over Oklahoma/eastern Texas this afternoon, but again, severe risk appears minimal at best. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon into tonight from the central Gulf Coast to parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Minor adjustments have been made to the general thunderstorm area, based on recent observational and guidance trends and the progression of convection along parts of the Gulf Coast. Otherwise, the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 02/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024/ ...Discussion... Highly amplified flow aloft will persist across the U.S. today and tonight, as a closed low at the base of an elongated/negatively tilted trough shifts east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, and toward the lower Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to cross the Gulf Coast region, with a trailing cold front advancing eastward/southeastward across the Gulf through the period. Meanwhile, a second upper trough is forecast to linger over the Canadian Maritimes, with a sharp ridge separating the two troughs, extending from the Canadian Prairie southeastward into the Southeast. Showers and a few inland thunderstorms will continue in advance of the central U.S. upper system, from the Kansas vicinity southeastward to the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. More widespread thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, over the open Gulf. While a stronger storm or two may brush the southern Louisiana coastal areas this afternoon, instability/shear combination should remain insufficient inland to support appreciable severe risk. Small hail will also be possible with a stronger storm or two this afternoon in the low-topped convection/cold-core regime over Oklahoma/eastern Texas this afternoon, but again, severe risk appears minimal at best. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon into tonight from the central Gulf Coast to parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Minor adjustments have been made to the general thunderstorm area, based on recent observational and guidance trends and the progression of convection along parts of the Gulf Coast. Otherwise, the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 02/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024/ ...Discussion... Highly amplified flow aloft will persist across the U.S. today and tonight, as a closed low at the base of an elongated/negatively tilted trough shifts east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, and toward the lower Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to cross the Gulf Coast region, with a trailing cold front advancing eastward/southeastward across the Gulf through the period. Meanwhile, a second upper trough is forecast to linger over the Canadian Maritimes, with a sharp ridge separating the two troughs, extending from the Canadian Prairie southeastward into the Southeast. Showers and a few inland thunderstorms will continue in advance of the central U.S. upper system, from the Kansas vicinity southeastward to the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. More widespread thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, over the open Gulf. While a stronger storm or two may brush the southern Louisiana coastal areas this afternoon, instability/shear combination should remain insufficient inland to support appreciable severe risk. Small hail will also be possible with a stronger storm or two this afternoon in the low-topped convection/cold-core regime over Oklahoma/eastern Texas this afternoon, but again, severe risk appears minimal at best. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon into tonight from the central Gulf Coast to parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Minor adjustments have been made to the general thunderstorm area, based on recent observational and guidance trends and the progression of convection along parts of the Gulf Coast. Otherwise, the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 02/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024/ ...Discussion... Highly amplified flow aloft will persist across the U.S. today and tonight, as a closed low at the base of an elongated/negatively tilted trough shifts east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, and toward the lower Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to cross the Gulf Coast region, with a trailing cold front advancing eastward/southeastward across the Gulf through the period. Meanwhile, a second upper trough is forecast to linger over the Canadian Maritimes, with a sharp ridge separating the two troughs, extending from the Canadian Prairie southeastward into the Southeast. Showers and a few inland thunderstorms will continue in advance of the central U.S. upper system, from the Kansas vicinity southeastward to the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. More widespread thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, over the open Gulf. While a stronger storm or two may brush the southern Louisiana coastal areas this afternoon, instability/shear combination should remain insufficient inland to support appreciable severe risk. Small hail will also be possible with a stronger storm or two this afternoon in the low-topped convection/cold-core regime over Oklahoma/eastern Texas this afternoon, but again, severe risk appears minimal at best. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z update... Across parts of far south/southwest TX, gusty northwest winds of 20-30 mph and humidity below 15-20% are possible through the afternoon on Sunday behind an area of low pressure. While meteorological conditions could support locally critical fire-weather potential, wetting rainfall has likely tempered the already marginal fuels. Still, at least a low-end fire-weather risk appears likely along the Rio Grande Valley where less rainfall has been observed. A narrow Elevated area will be added given the strong winds and periodic low humidity. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread much of western into far southern Texas tomorrow/Sunday as a coupled surface and upper-level cyclone ejects into the Gulf of Mexico. RH may dip to 15 percent in spots by afternoon peak heating as sustained northwesterly surface wind speeds increase to 25 mph. Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of far southern Texas, where the best overlap of potential Elevated to locally Critical surface meteorological conditions may develop. Therefore, fire weather highlights are being withheld for now until rainfall totals and their associated impacts on fuel receptiveness can be assessed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z update... Across parts of far south/southwest TX, gusty northwest winds of 20-30 mph and humidity below 15-20% are possible through the afternoon on Sunday behind an area of low pressure. While meteorological conditions could support locally critical fire-weather potential, wetting rainfall has likely tempered the already marginal fuels. Still, at least a low-end fire-weather risk appears likely along the Rio Grande Valley where less rainfall has been observed. A narrow Elevated area will be added given the strong winds and periodic low humidity. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread much of western into far southern Texas tomorrow/Sunday as a coupled surface and upper-level cyclone ejects into the Gulf of Mexico. RH may dip to 15 percent in spots by afternoon peak heating as sustained northwesterly surface wind speeds increase to 25 mph. Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of far southern Texas, where the best overlap of potential Elevated to locally Critical surface meteorological conditions may develop. Therefore, fire weather highlights are being withheld for now until rainfall totals and their associated impacts on fuel receptiveness can be assessed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z update... Across parts of far south/southwest TX, gusty northwest winds of 20-30 mph and humidity below 15-20% are possible through the afternoon on Sunday behind an area of low pressure. While meteorological conditions could support locally critical fire-weather potential, wetting rainfall has likely tempered the already marginal fuels. Still, at least a low-end fire-weather risk appears likely along the Rio Grande Valley where less rainfall has been observed. A narrow Elevated area will be added given the strong winds and periodic low humidity. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread much of western into far southern Texas tomorrow/Sunday as a coupled surface and upper-level cyclone ejects into the Gulf of Mexico. RH may dip to 15 percent in spots by afternoon peak heating as sustained northwesterly surface wind speeds increase to 25 mph. Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of far southern Texas, where the best overlap of potential Elevated to locally Critical surface meteorological conditions may develop. Therefore, fire weather highlights are being withheld for now until rainfall totals and their associated impacts on fuel receptiveness can be assessed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z update... Across parts of far south/southwest TX, gusty northwest winds of 20-30 mph and humidity below 15-20% are possible through the afternoon on Sunday behind an area of low pressure. While meteorological conditions could support locally critical fire-weather potential, wetting rainfall has likely tempered the already marginal fuels. Still, at least a low-end fire-weather risk appears likely along the Rio Grande Valley where less rainfall has been observed. A narrow Elevated area will be added given the strong winds and periodic low humidity. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread much of western into far southern Texas tomorrow/Sunday as a coupled surface and upper-level cyclone ejects into the Gulf of Mexico. RH may dip to 15 percent in spots by afternoon peak heating as sustained northwesterly surface wind speeds increase to 25 mph. Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of far southern Texas, where the best overlap of potential Elevated to locally Critical surface meteorological conditions may develop. Therefore, fire weather highlights are being withheld for now until rainfall totals and their associated impacts on fuel receptiveness can be assessed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two will be possible along a portion of the central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...Florida... Guidance continues to suggest bimodal severe potential across parts of Florida on Sunday, with an early-day threat across south FL and the Keys, and a potential afternoon/early-evening threat across parts of the central/northern peninsula. Uncertainty remains regarding the impact of the early-day convection on the later potential threat farther north. An MCS will likely be ongoing offshore of the FL Gulf Coast at the start of the forecast period Sunday morning, in association with a deep mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered near the ArkLaTex region. Low-level moisture will initially be rather meager across the peninsula, and the northern portion of the MCS will likely weaken as it outpaces moisture return. However, moisture recovery across south FL may be sufficient to maintain the southern portion of the remnant MCS, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear to support potential for a tornado or two and locally damaging wind. Slower timing of the MCS would allow for greater moistening/destabilization, while a faster timing would reduce recovery potential and potentially limit the severe threat. Farther north, some severe potential may evolve during the afternoon, as a surface low deepens over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, and a steep midlevel lapse rate plume and related dry slot overspread the central/northern peninsula. The magnitude of the severe threat in this regime will be dependent on the extent of heating and low-level moisture return, which in turn will be influenced by timing and evolution of the morning MCS. If sufficient destabilization can occur and deep convection can be sustained, then deep-layer shear will support potential supercell development. Favorable low-level shear/SRH within the effective warm frontal zone would support some tornado threat, in addition to isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. If confidence in supercell development increases, then higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed within this regime. Guidance suggests a relative minimum in severe threat across parts of the central peninsula, between the two regimes described above. However, with uncertainty regarding the northern extent of the early-day threat, and southern extent of afternoon severe potential, confidence is too low to downgrade probabilities across any part of the peninsula at this time. ...Central California coast... In response to an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen off of the central CA coast during the day on Sunday, before it begins to occlude by Sunday night. In the wake of substantial early-day precipitation, low-topped convection may develop offshore and spread inland. Very weak instability will limit updraft intensity, but strong low-level flow/shear (with 50-60 kt of flow within the lowest 1 km AGL) may support a brief tornado or two and isolated severe gusts near the immediate central CA coast, mainly during the afternoon. ..Dean.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two will be possible along a portion of the central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...Florida... Guidance continues to suggest bimodal severe potential across parts of Florida on Sunday, with an early-day threat across south FL and the Keys, and a potential afternoon/early-evening threat across parts of the central/northern peninsula. Uncertainty remains regarding the impact of the early-day convection on the later potential threat farther north. An MCS will likely be ongoing offshore of the FL Gulf Coast at the start of the forecast period Sunday morning, in association with a deep mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered near the ArkLaTex region. Low-level moisture will initially be rather meager across the peninsula, and the northern portion of the MCS will likely weaken as it outpaces moisture return. However, moisture recovery across south FL may be sufficient to maintain the southern portion of the remnant MCS, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear to support potential for a tornado or two and locally damaging wind. Slower timing of the MCS would allow for greater moistening/destabilization, while a faster timing would reduce recovery potential and potentially limit the severe threat. Farther north, some severe potential may evolve during the afternoon, as a surface low deepens over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, and a steep midlevel lapse rate plume and related dry slot overspread the central/northern peninsula. The magnitude of the severe threat in this regime will be dependent on the extent of heating and low-level moisture return, which in turn will be influenced by timing and evolution of the morning MCS. If sufficient destabilization can occur and deep convection can be sustained, then deep-layer shear will support potential supercell development. Favorable low-level shear/SRH within the effective warm frontal zone would support some tornado threat, in addition to isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. If confidence in supercell development increases, then higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed within this regime. Guidance suggests a relative minimum in severe threat across parts of the central peninsula, between the two regimes described above. However, with uncertainty regarding the northern extent of the early-day threat, and southern extent of afternoon severe potential, confidence is too low to downgrade probabilities across any part of the peninsula at this time. ...Central California coast... In response to an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen off of the central CA coast during the day on Sunday, before it begins to occlude by Sunday night. In the wake of substantial early-day precipitation, low-topped convection may develop offshore and spread inland. Very weak instability will limit updraft intensity, but strong low-level flow/shear (with 50-60 kt of flow within the lowest 1 km AGL) may support a brief tornado or two and isolated severe gusts near the immediate central CA coast, mainly during the afternoon. ..Dean.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two will be possible along a portion of the central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...Florida... Guidance continues to suggest bimodal severe potential across parts of Florida on Sunday, with an early-day threat across south FL and the Keys, and a potential afternoon/early-evening threat across parts of the central/northern peninsula. Uncertainty remains regarding the impact of the early-day convection on the later potential threat farther north. An MCS will likely be ongoing offshore of the FL Gulf Coast at the start of the forecast period Sunday morning, in association with a deep mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered near the ArkLaTex region. Low-level moisture will initially be rather meager across the peninsula, and the northern portion of the MCS will likely weaken as it outpaces moisture return. However, moisture recovery across south FL may be sufficient to maintain the southern portion of the remnant MCS, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear to support potential for a tornado or two and locally damaging wind. Slower timing of the MCS would allow for greater moistening/destabilization, while a faster timing would reduce recovery potential and potentially limit the severe threat. Farther north, some severe potential may evolve during the afternoon, as a surface low deepens over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, and a steep midlevel lapse rate plume and related dry slot overspread the central/northern peninsula. The magnitude of the severe threat in this regime will be dependent on the extent of heating and low-level moisture return, which in turn will be influenced by timing and evolution of the morning MCS. If sufficient destabilization can occur and deep convection can be sustained, then deep-layer shear will support potential supercell development. Favorable low-level shear/SRH within the effective warm frontal zone would support some tornado threat, in addition to isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. If confidence in supercell development increases, then higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed within this regime. Guidance suggests a relative minimum in severe threat across parts of the central peninsula, between the two regimes described above. However, with uncertainty regarding the northern extent of the early-day threat, and southern extent of afternoon severe potential, confidence is too low to downgrade probabilities across any part of the peninsula at this time. ...Central California coast... In response to an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen off of the central CA coast during the day on Sunday, before it begins to occlude by Sunday night. In the wake of substantial early-day precipitation, low-topped convection may develop offshore and spread inland. Very weak instability will limit updraft intensity, but strong low-level flow/shear (with 50-60 kt of flow within the lowest 1 km AGL) may support a brief tornado or two and isolated severe gusts near the immediate central CA coast, mainly during the afternoon. ..Dean.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two will be possible along a portion of the central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...Florida... Guidance continues to suggest bimodal severe potential across parts of Florida on Sunday, with an early-day threat across south FL and the Keys, and a potential afternoon/early-evening threat across parts of the central/northern peninsula. Uncertainty remains regarding the impact of the early-day convection on the later potential threat farther north. An MCS will likely be ongoing offshore of the FL Gulf Coast at the start of the forecast period Sunday morning, in association with a deep mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered near the ArkLaTex region. Low-level moisture will initially be rather meager across the peninsula, and the northern portion of the MCS will likely weaken as it outpaces moisture return. However, moisture recovery across south FL may be sufficient to maintain the southern portion of the remnant MCS, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear to support potential for a tornado or two and locally damaging wind. Slower timing of the MCS would allow for greater moistening/destabilization, while a faster timing would reduce recovery potential and potentially limit the severe threat. Farther north, some severe potential may evolve during the afternoon, as a surface low deepens over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, and a steep midlevel lapse rate plume and related dry slot overspread the central/northern peninsula. The magnitude of the severe threat in this regime will be dependent on the extent of heating and low-level moisture return, which in turn will be influenced by timing and evolution of the morning MCS. If sufficient destabilization can occur and deep convection can be sustained, then deep-layer shear will support potential supercell development. Favorable low-level shear/SRH within the effective warm frontal zone would support some tornado threat, in addition to isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. If confidence in supercell development increases, then higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed within this regime. Guidance suggests a relative minimum in severe threat across parts of the central peninsula, between the two regimes described above. However, with uncertainty regarding the northern extent of the early-day threat, and southern extent of afternoon severe potential, confidence is too low to downgrade probabilities across any part of the peninsula at this time. ...Central California coast... In response to an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen off of the central CA coast during the day on Sunday, before it begins to occlude by Sunday night. In the wake of substantial early-day precipitation, low-topped convection may develop offshore and spread inland. Very weak instability will limit updraft intensity, but strong low-level flow/shear (with 50-60 kt of flow within the lowest 1 km AGL) may support a brief tornado or two and isolated severe gusts near the immediate central CA coast, mainly during the afternoon. ..Dean.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two will be possible along a portion of the central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...Florida... Guidance continues to suggest bimodal severe potential across parts of Florida on Sunday, with an early-day threat across south FL and the Keys, and a potential afternoon/early-evening threat across parts of the central/northern peninsula. Uncertainty remains regarding the impact of the early-day convection on the later potential threat farther north. An MCS will likely be ongoing offshore of the FL Gulf Coast at the start of the forecast period Sunday morning, in association with a deep mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered near the ArkLaTex region. Low-level moisture will initially be rather meager across the peninsula, and the northern portion of the MCS will likely weaken as it outpaces moisture return. However, moisture recovery across south FL may be sufficient to maintain the southern portion of the remnant MCS, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear to support potential for a tornado or two and locally damaging wind. Slower timing of the MCS would allow for greater moistening/destabilization, while a faster timing would reduce recovery potential and potentially limit the severe threat. Farther north, some severe potential may evolve during the afternoon, as a surface low deepens over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, and a steep midlevel lapse rate plume and related dry slot overspread the central/northern peninsula. The magnitude of the severe threat in this regime will be dependent on the extent of heating and low-level moisture return, which in turn will be influenced by timing and evolution of the morning MCS. If sufficient destabilization can occur and deep convection can be sustained, then deep-layer shear will support potential supercell development. Favorable low-level shear/SRH within the effective warm frontal zone would support some tornado threat, in addition to isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. If confidence in supercell development increases, then higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed within this regime. Guidance suggests a relative minimum in severe threat across parts of the central peninsula, between the two regimes described above. However, with uncertainty regarding the northern extent of the early-day threat, and southern extent of afternoon severe potential, confidence is too low to downgrade probabilities across any part of the peninsula at this time. ...Central California coast... In response to an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen off of the central CA coast during the day on Sunday, before it begins to occlude by Sunday night. In the wake of substantial early-day precipitation, low-topped convection may develop offshore and spread inland. Very weak instability will limit updraft intensity, but strong low-level flow/shear (with 50-60 kt of flow within the lowest 1 km AGL) may support a brief tornado or two and isolated severe gusts near the immediate central CA coast, mainly during the afternoon. ..Dean.. 02/03/2024 Read more