Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...Southern Great Plains... Late-evening satellite imagery suggests a strong southern-stream short-wave trough is noted over southern CA/Baja Peninsula. This feature is ejecting east in line with latest model guidance, and should approach west TX by late afternoon. While the primary trough will only advance into the TX south Plains by the end of the period, deep-layer ascent and strong shear will overspread the southern Plains as 12hr midlevel height falls, on the order of 90m, evolve across this region. Boundary-layer moistening has permitted 50s surface dew points to return across much of TX east of a line from Sanderson-SJT-ABI-Vernon, even advancing into portions of OK as of 05z. Lee surface trough/dryline will hold near this position as modest boundary-layer heating is expected across the southern High Plains by mid afternoon. While lee cyclogenesis is not expected to be that significant, low-level convergence will prove more than adequate for deep convection by late afternoon as substantial midlevel cooling will overspread the dryline. Latest data suggests 500mb temperatures should cool to near -18C by peak heating and low-level lapse rates west of the boundary will be substantially steep, enough for surface-based parcels to convect. NAM forecast sounding at 21z for AMA exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 600 J/kg within a sheared environment favorable for organized updrafts. HREF supports the idea of forced convection evolving across this portion of the High Plains with subsequent upscale growth/movement into western OK by early evening. Scattered convection is also expected south along/ahead of the dryline as profiles adjust within a very diffluent high-level flow regime. Buoyancy will be greater at lower latitudes, especially south of I20, and forecast soundings favor potential supercells and large hail. While initial activity may be somewhat discrete, this strongly dynamic system should encourage a more linear mode of convection by mid evening. An elongated QLCS will surge across the southern Plains during the overnight hours. While hail is the primary severe threat early, especially near the initiating corridor, locally strong winds, and perhaps a brief tornado are the threats downstream. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...Southern Great Plains... Late-evening satellite imagery suggests a strong southern-stream short-wave trough is noted over southern CA/Baja Peninsula. This feature is ejecting east in line with latest model guidance, and should approach west TX by late afternoon. While the primary trough will only advance into the TX south Plains by the end of the period, deep-layer ascent and strong shear will overspread the southern Plains as 12hr midlevel height falls, on the order of 90m, evolve across this region. Boundary-layer moistening has permitted 50s surface dew points to return across much of TX east of a line from Sanderson-SJT-ABI-Vernon, even advancing into portions of OK as of 05z. Lee surface trough/dryline will hold near this position as modest boundary-layer heating is expected across the southern High Plains by mid afternoon. While lee cyclogenesis is not expected to be that significant, low-level convergence will prove more than adequate for deep convection by late afternoon as substantial midlevel cooling will overspread the dryline. Latest data suggests 500mb temperatures should cool to near -18C by peak heating and low-level lapse rates west of the boundary will be substantially steep, enough for surface-based parcels to convect. NAM forecast sounding at 21z for AMA exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 600 J/kg within a sheared environment favorable for organized updrafts. HREF supports the idea of forced convection evolving across this portion of the High Plains with subsequent upscale growth/movement into western OK by early evening. Scattered convection is also expected south along/ahead of the dryline as profiles adjust within a very diffluent high-level flow regime. Buoyancy will be greater at lower latitudes, especially south of I20, and forecast soundings favor potential supercells and large hail. While initial activity may be somewhat discrete, this strongly dynamic system should encourage a more linear mode of convection by mid evening. An elongated QLCS will surge across the southern Plains during the overnight hours. While hail is the primary severe threat early, especially near the initiating corridor, locally strong winds, and perhaps a brief tornado are the threats downstream. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...Southern Great Plains... Late-evening satellite imagery suggests a strong southern-stream short-wave trough is noted over southern CA/Baja Peninsula. This feature is ejecting east in line with latest model guidance, and should approach west TX by late afternoon. While the primary trough will only advance into the TX south Plains by the end of the period, deep-layer ascent and strong shear will overspread the southern Plains as 12hr midlevel height falls, on the order of 90m, evolve across this region. Boundary-layer moistening has permitted 50s surface dew points to return across much of TX east of a line from Sanderson-SJT-ABI-Vernon, even advancing into portions of OK as of 05z. Lee surface trough/dryline will hold near this position as modest boundary-layer heating is expected across the southern High Plains by mid afternoon. While lee cyclogenesis is not expected to be that significant, low-level convergence will prove more than adequate for deep convection by late afternoon as substantial midlevel cooling will overspread the dryline. Latest data suggests 500mb temperatures should cool to near -18C by peak heating and low-level lapse rates west of the boundary will be substantially steep, enough for surface-based parcels to convect. NAM forecast sounding at 21z for AMA exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 600 J/kg within a sheared environment favorable for organized updrafts. HREF supports the idea of forced convection evolving across this portion of the High Plains with subsequent upscale growth/movement into western OK by early evening. Scattered convection is also expected south along/ahead of the dryline as profiles adjust within a very diffluent high-level flow regime. Buoyancy will be greater at lower latitudes, especially south of I20, and forecast soundings favor potential supercells and large hail. While initial activity may be somewhat discrete, this strongly dynamic system should encourage a more linear mode of convection by mid evening. An elongated QLCS will surge across the southern Plains during the overnight hours. While hail is the primary severe threat early, especially near the initiating corridor, locally strong winds, and perhaps a brief tornado are the threats downstream. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...Southern Great Plains... Late-evening satellite imagery suggests a strong southern-stream short-wave trough is noted over southern CA/Baja Peninsula. This feature is ejecting east in line with latest model guidance, and should approach west TX by late afternoon. While the primary trough will only advance into the TX south Plains by the end of the period, deep-layer ascent and strong shear will overspread the southern Plains as 12hr midlevel height falls, on the order of 90m, evolve across this region. Boundary-layer moistening has permitted 50s surface dew points to return across much of TX east of a line from Sanderson-SJT-ABI-Vernon, even advancing into portions of OK as of 05z. Lee surface trough/dryline will hold near this position as modest boundary-layer heating is expected across the southern High Plains by mid afternoon. While lee cyclogenesis is not expected to be that significant, low-level convergence will prove more than adequate for deep convection by late afternoon as substantial midlevel cooling will overspread the dryline. Latest data suggests 500mb temperatures should cool to near -18C by peak heating and low-level lapse rates west of the boundary will be substantially steep, enough for surface-based parcels to convect. NAM forecast sounding at 21z for AMA exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 600 J/kg within a sheared environment favorable for organized updrafts. HREF supports the idea of forced convection evolving across this portion of the High Plains with subsequent upscale growth/movement into western OK by early evening. Scattered convection is also expected south along/ahead of the dryline as profiles adjust within a very diffluent high-level flow regime. Buoyancy will be greater at lower latitudes, especially south of I20, and forecast soundings favor potential supercells and large hail. While initial activity may be somewhat discrete, this strongly dynamic system should encourage a more linear mode of convection by mid evening. An elongated QLCS will surge across the southern Plains during the overnight hours. While hail is the primary severe threat early, especially near the initiating corridor, locally strong winds, and perhaps a brief tornado are the threats downstream. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...Southern Great Plains... Late-evening satellite imagery suggests a strong southern-stream short-wave trough is noted over southern CA/Baja Peninsula. This feature is ejecting east in line with latest model guidance, and should approach west TX by late afternoon. While the primary trough will only advance into the TX south Plains by the end of the period, deep-layer ascent and strong shear will overspread the southern Plains as 12hr midlevel height falls, on the order of 90m, evolve across this region. Boundary-layer moistening has permitted 50s surface dew points to return across much of TX east of a line from Sanderson-SJT-ABI-Vernon, even advancing into portions of OK as of 05z. Lee surface trough/dryline will hold near this position as modest boundary-layer heating is expected across the southern High Plains by mid afternoon. While lee cyclogenesis is not expected to be that significant, low-level convergence will prove more than adequate for deep convection by late afternoon as substantial midlevel cooling will overspread the dryline. Latest data suggests 500mb temperatures should cool to near -18C by peak heating and low-level lapse rates west of the boundary will be substantially steep, enough for surface-based parcels to convect. NAM forecast sounding at 21z for AMA exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 600 J/kg within a sheared environment favorable for organized updrafts. HREF supports the idea of forced convection evolving across this portion of the High Plains with subsequent upscale growth/movement into western OK by early evening. Scattered convection is also expected south along/ahead of the dryline as profiles adjust within a very diffluent high-level flow regime. Buoyancy will be greater at lower latitudes, especially south of I20, and forecast soundings favor potential supercells and large hail. While initial activity may be somewhat discrete, this strongly dynamic system should encourage a more linear mode of convection by mid evening. An elongated QLCS will surge across the southern Plains during the overnight hours. While hail is the primary severe threat early, especially near the initiating corridor, locally strong winds, and perhaps a brief tornado are the threats downstream. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...Southern Great Plains... Late-evening satellite imagery suggests a strong southern-stream short-wave trough is noted over southern CA/Baja Peninsula. This feature is ejecting east in line with latest model guidance, and should approach west TX by late afternoon. While the primary trough will only advance into the TX south Plains by the end of the period, deep-layer ascent and strong shear will overspread the southern Plains as 12hr midlevel height falls, on the order of 90m, evolve across this region. Boundary-layer moistening has permitted 50s surface dew points to return across much of TX east of a line from Sanderson-SJT-ABI-Vernon, even advancing into portions of OK as of 05z. Lee surface trough/dryline will hold near this position as modest boundary-layer heating is expected across the southern High Plains by mid afternoon. While lee cyclogenesis is not expected to be that significant, low-level convergence will prove more than adequate for deep convection by late afternoon as substantial midlevel cooling will overspread the dryline. Latest data suggests 500mb temperatures should cool to near -18C by peak heating and low-level lapse rates west of the boundary will be substantially steep, enough for surface-based parcels to convect. NAM forecast sounding at 21z for AMA exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 600 J/kg within a sheared environment favorable for organized updrafts. HREF supports the idea of forced convection evolving across this portion of the High Plains with subsequent upscale growth/movement into western OK by early evening. Scattered convection is also expected south along/ahead of the dryline as profiles adjust within a very diffluent high-level flow regime. Buoyancy will be greater at lower latitudes, especially south of I20, and forecast soundings favor potential supercells and large hail. While initial activity may be somewhat discrete, this strongly dynamic system should encourage a more linear mode of convection by mid evening. An elongated QLCS will surge across the southern Plains during the overnight hours. While hail is the primary severe threat early, especially near the initiating corridor, locally strong winds, and perhaps a brief tornado are the threats downstream. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Update... Large-scale midlevel height fields continue to fall across the southwestern US as a significant southern-stream short-wave trough advances toward southern CA/Baja Peninsula. 500mb speed max associated with this feature will encourage the short wave to approach the lower CO River Valley/Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Cooling/steepening profiles north of the jet exhibit ample buoyancy for convection, some of which are producing lightning this evening. 00z soundings across the southwestern US support this with TUS, NKX, OAK, and FGZ all displaying a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE. Latest lightning data also supports this with pockets of deeper convection/lightning evident across the higher terrain of northern AZ, and across the interior valleys of CA. No changes are warranted to the 20z outlook regarding the prospect for thunderstorms tonight. ..Darrow.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Update... Large-scale midlevel height fields continue to fall across the southwestern US as a significant southern-stream short-wave trough advances toward southern CA/Baja Peninsula. 500mb speed max associated with this feature will encourage the short wave to approach the lower CO River Valley/Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Cooling/steepening profiles north of the jet exhibit ample buoyancy for convection, some of which are producing lightning this evening. 00z soundings across the southwestern US support this with TUS, NKX, OAK, and FGZ all displaying a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE. Latest lightning data also supports this with pockets of deeper convection/lightning evident across the higher terrain of northern AZ, and across the interior valleys of CA. No changes are warranted to the 20z outlook regarding the prospect for thunderstorms tonight. ..Darrow.. 02/02/2024 Read more