Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive and highly amplified pattern is forecast through the remainder of this period and into day-2, as ridging shifts eastward over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. To its southwest, a large area of cyclonic flow and height falls will continue to build further inland, covering most of the western CONUS by the end of the period. Within that, several embedded shortwaves will contribute to the eastward motion and amplification of mean troughing, including a perturbation evident in moisture-channel imagery over coastal central/northern CA. This feature should dig east-southeastward across the lower Colorado River Valley tonight, reaching central AZ and southern NV by 12Z tomorrow. The strongest, cyclonically curved, 500-250-mb layer jet will remain southwest of the negatively tilted trough, across the Pacific from northern Baja west-northwestward. However: 1. Large-scale ascent associated with the left-exit region will spread across a wide swath of CA, AZ and ultimately NM, as well as strongly difluent mid/upper flow. 2. Midlevel DCVA, and low-level warm advection and frontogenetic forcing, will contribute further to varying scales of lift over parts of the region, while Pacific moisture increases in low/middle levels. These factors should lead to weak but sufficient MUCAPE to support a generally eastward-developing thunder potential with time, across the outlook area. A couple of highly conditional areas for isolated strong storms are apparent, but with potential too low for a severe outlook. Sufficient destabilization may develop to support surface-based, post-frontal convection this afternoon into early evening over the CA Central Valley. However, vertical shear will be weak, keeping activity pulse in nature. Farther south around the L.A. Basin and nearby coastline, enough destabilization for surface-based buoyancy may occur behind the initial frontal band, but also amid veering near-surface flow and weakening shear with time. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive and highly amplified pattern is forecast through the remainder of this period and into day-2, as ridging shifts eastward over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. To its southwest, a large area of cyclonic flow and height falls will continue to build further inland, covering most of the western CONUS by the end of the period. Within that, several embedded shortwaves will contribute to the eastward motion and amplification of mean troughing, including a perturbation evident in moisture-channel imagery over coastal central/northern CA. This feature should dig east-southeastward across the lower Colorado River Valley tonight, reaching central AZ and southern NV by 12Z tomorrow. The strongest, cyclonically curved, 500-250-mb layer jet will remain southwest of the negatively tilted trough, across the Pacific from northern Baja west-northwestward. However: 1. Large-scale ascent associated with the left-exit region will spread across a wide swath of CA, AZ and ultimately NM, as well as strongly difluent mid/upper flow. 2. Midlevel DCVA, and low-level warm advection and frontogenetic forcing, will contribute further to varying scales of lift over parts of the region, while Pacific moisture increases in low/middle levels. These factors should lead to weak but sufficient MUCAPE to support a generally eastward-developing thunder potential with time, across the outlook area. A couple of highly conditional areas for isolated strong storms are apparent, but with potential too low for a severe outlook. Sufficient destabilization may develop to support surface-based, post-frontal convection this afternoon into early evening over the CA Central Valley. However, vertical shear will be weak, keeping activity pulse in nature. Farther south around the L.A. Basin and nearby coastline, enough destabilization for surface-based buoyancy may occur behind the initial frontal band, but also amid veering near-surface flow and weakening shear with time. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive and highly amplified pattern is forecast through the remainder of this period and into day-2, as ridging shifts eastward over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. To its southwest, a large area of cyclonic flow and height falls will continue to build further inland, covering most of the western CONUS by the end of the period. Within that, several embedded shortwaves will contribute to the eastward motion and amplification of mean troughing, including a perturbation evident in moisture-channel imagery over coastal central/northern CA. This feature should dig east-southeastward across the lower Colorado River Valley tonight, reaching central AZ and southern NV by 12Z tomorrow. The strongest, cyclonically curved, 500-250-mb layer jet will remain southwest of the negatively tilted trough, across the Pacific from northern Baja west-northwestward. However: 1. Large-scale ascent associated with the left-exit region will spread across a wide swath of CA, AZ and ultimately NM, as well as strongly difluent mid/upper flow. 2. Midlevel DCVA, and low-level warm advection and frontogenetic forcing, will contribute further to varying scales of lift over parts of the region, while Pacific moisture increases in low/middle levels. These factors should lead to weak but sufficient MUCAPE to support a generally eastward-developing thunder potential with time, across the outlook area. A couple of highly conditional areas for isolated strong storms are apparent, but with potential too low for a severe outlook. Sufficient destabilization may develop to support surface-based, post-frontal convection this afternoon into early evening over the CA Central Valley. However, vertical shear will be weak, keeping activity pulse in nature. Farther south around the L.A. Basin and nearby coastline, enough destabilization for surface-based buoyancy may occur behind the initial frontal band, but also amid veering near-surface flow and weakening shear with time. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive and highly amplified pattern is forecast through the remainder of this period and into day-2, as ridging shifts eastward over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. To its southwest, a large area of cyclonic flow and height falls will continue to build further inland, covering most of the western CONUS by the end of the period. Within that, several embedded shortwaves will contribute to the eastward motion and amplification of mean troughing, including a perturbation evident in moisture-channel imagery over coastal central/northern CA. This feature should dig east-southeastward across the lower Colorado River Valley tonight, reaching central AZ and southern NV by 12Z tomorrow. The strongest, cyclonically curved, 500-250-mb layer jet will remain southwest of the negatively tilted trough, across the Pacific from northern Baja west-northwestward. However: 1. Large-scale ascent associated with the left-exit region will spread across a wide swath of CA, AZ and ultimately NM, as well as strongly difluent mid/upper flow. 2. Midlevel DCVA, and low-level warm advection and frontogenetic forcing, will contribute further to varying scales of lift over parts of the region, while Pacific moisture increases in low/middle levels. These factors should lead to weak but sufficient MUCAPE to support a generally eastward-developing thunder potential with time, across the outlook area. A couple of highly conditional areas for isolated strong storms are apparent, but with potential too low for a severe outlook. Sufficient destabilization may develop to support surface-based, post-frontal convection this afternoon into early evening over the CA Central Valley. However, vertical shear will be weak, keeping activity pulse in nature. Farther south around the L.A. Basin and nearby coastline, enough destabilization for surface-based buoyancy may occur behind the initial frontal band, but also amid veering near-surface flow and weakening shear with time. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive and highly amplified pattern is forecast through the remainder of this period and into day-2, as ridging shifts eastward over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. To its southwest, a large area of cyclonic flow and height falls will continue to build further inland, covering most of the western CONUS by the end of the period. Within that, several embedded shortwaves will contribute to the eastward motion and amplification of mean troughing, including a perturbation evident in moisture-channel imagery over coastal central/northern CA. This feature should dig east-southeastward across the lower Colorado River Valley tonight, reaching central AZ and southern NV by 12Z tomorrow. The strongest, cyclonically curved, 500-250-mb layer jet will remain southwest of the negatively tilted trough, across the Pacific from northern Baja west-northwestward. However: 1. Large-scale ascent associated with the left-exit region will spread across a wide swath of CA, AZ and ultimately NM, as well as strongly difluent mid/upper flow. 2. Midlevel DCVA, and low-level warm advection and frontogenetic forcing, will contribute further to varying scales of lift over parts of the region, while Pacific moisture increases in low/middle levels. These factors should lead to weak but sufficient MUCAPE to support a generally eastward-developing thunder potential with time, across the outlook area. A couple of highly conditional areas for isolated strong storms are apparent, but with potential too low for a severe outlook. Sufficient destabilization may develop to support surface-based, post-frontal convection this afternoon into early evening over the CA Central Valley. However, vertical shear will be weak, keeping activity pulse in nature. Farther south around the L.A. Basin and nearby coastline, enough destabilization for surface-based buoyancy may occur behind the initial frontal band, but also amid veering near-surface flow and weakening shear with time. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive and highly amplified pattern is forecast through the remainder of this period and into day-2, as ridging shifts eastward over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. To its southwest, a large area of cyclonic flow and height falls will continue to build further inland, covering most of the western CONUS by the end of the period. Within that, several embedded shortwaves will contribute to the eastward motion and amplification of mean troughing, including a perturbation evident in moisture-channel imagery over coastal central/northern CA. This feature should dig east-southeastward across the lower Colorado River Valley tonight, reaching central AZ and southern NV by 12Z tomorrow. The strongest, cyclonically curved, 500-250-mb layer jet will remain southwest of the negatively tilted trough, across the Pacific from northern Baja west-northwestward. However: 1. Large-scale ascent associated with the left-exit region will spread across a wide swath of CA, AZ and ultimately NM, as well as strongly difluent mid/upper flow. 2. Midlevel DCVA, and low-level warm advection and frontogenetic forcing, will contribute further to varying scales of lift over parts of the region, while Pacific moisture increases in low/middle levels. These factors should lead to weak but sufficient MUCAPE to support a generally eastward-developing thunder potential with time, across the outlook area. A couple of highly conditional areas for isolated strong storms are apparent, but with potential too low for a severe outlook. Sufficient destabilization may develop to support surface-based, post-frontal convection this afternoon into early evening over the CA Central Valley. However, vertical shear will be weak, keeping activity pulse in nature. Farther south around the L.A. Basin and nearby coastline, enough destabilization for surface-based buoyancy may occur behind the initial frontal band, but also amid veering near-surface flow and weakening shear with time. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 02/01/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest guidance continues to converge towards the notion of secondary cyclogenesis in the north-central Gulf vicinity, during the latter half of D3 into D4. This process should occur as the intense mid-level jet, centered on the Rio Grande Valley/south TX into the northwest Gulf at 12Z Sunday, translates eastward across much of the Gulf into the FL Peninsula by early Monday. A potential high-shear/low-CAPE environment remains plausible across roughly the southern third of FL for a 3-6 hour period during Sunday morning to afternoon. A substantial influx of low-level moisture will be necessary after an initially dry air mass lingers over most of the peninsula through D3. Widespread convection is expected to approach the peninsula Sunday morning, within the robust low-level warm conveyor ahead of a sweeping Pacific cold front and diffluent upper flow regime. Instability should be quite limited where low-level shear is large, but this will need careful monitoring over the upcoming days. Severe potential will likely resume being negligible again as boundary-layer moisture becomes limited over the Gulf until around late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest guidance continues to converge towards the notion of secondary cyclogenesis in the north-central Gulf vicinity, during the latter half of D3 into D4. This process should occur as the intense mid-level jet, centered on the Rio Grande Valley/south TX into the northwest Gulf at 12Z Sunday, translates eastward across much of the Gulf into the FL Peninsula by early Monday. A potential high-shear/low-CAPE environment remains plausible across roughly the southern third of FL for a 3-6 hour period during Sunday morning to afternoon. A substantial influx of low-level moisture will be necessary after an initially dry air mass lingers over most of the peninsula through D3. Widespread convection is expected to approach the peninsula Sunday morning, within the robust low-level warm conveyor ahead of a sweeping Pacific cold front and diffluent upper flow regime. Instability should be quite limited where low-level shear is large, but this will need careful monitoring over the upcoming days. Severe potential will likely resume being negligible again as boundary-layer moisture becomes limited over the Gulf until around late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest guidance continues to converge towards the notion of secondary cyclogenesis in the north-central Gulf vicinity, during the latter half of D3 into D4. This process should occur as the intense mid-level jet, centered on the Rio Grande Valley/south TX into the northwest Gulf at 12Z Sunday, translates eastward across much of the Gulf into the FL Peninsula by early Monday. A potential high-shear/low-CAPE environment remains plausible across roughly the southern third of FL for a 3-6 hour period during Sunday morning to afternoon. A substantial influx of low-level moisture will be necessary after an initially dry air mass lingers over most of the peninsula through D3. Widespread convection is expected to approach the peninsula Sunday morning, within the robust low-level warm conveyor ahead of a sweeping Pacific cold front and diffluent upper flow regime. Instability should be quite limited where low-level shear is large, but this will need careful monitoring over the upcoming days. Severe potential will likely resume being negligible again as boundary-layer moisture becomes limited over the Gulf until around late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest guidance continues to converge towards the notion of secondary cyclogenesis in the north-central Gulf vicinity, during the latter half of D3 into D4. This process should occur as the intense mid-level jet, centered on the Rio Grande Valley/south TX into the northwest Gulf at 12Z Sunday, translates eastward across much of the Gulf into the FL Peninsula by early Monday. A potential high-shear/low-CAPE environment remains plausible across roughly the southern third of FL for a 3-6 hour period during Sunday morning to afternoon. A substantial influx of low-level moisture will be necessary after an initially dry air mass lingers over most of the peninsula through D3. Widespread convection is expected to approach the peninsula Sunday morning, within the robust low-level warm conveyor ahead of a sweeping Pacific cold front and diffluent upper flow regime. Instability should be quite limited where low-level shear is large, but this will need careful monitoring over the upcoming days. Severe potential will likely resume being negligible again as boundary-layer moisture becomes limited over the Gulf until around late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest guidance continues to converge towards the notion of secondary cyclogenesis in the north-central Gulf vicinity, during the latter half of D3 into D4. This process should occur as the intense mid-level jet, centered on the Rio Grande Valley/south TX into the northwest Gulf at 12Z Sunday, translates eastward across much of the Gulf into the FL Peninsula by early Monday. A potential high-shear/low-CAPE environment remains plausible across roughly the southern third of FL for a 3-6 hour period during Sunday morning to afternoon. A substantial influx of low-level moisture will be necessary after an initially dry air mass lingers over most of the peninsula through D3. Widespread convection is expected to approach the peninsula Sunday morning, within the robust low-level warm conveyor ahead of a sweeping Pacific cold front and diffluent upper flow regime. Instability should be quite limited where low-level shear is large, but this will need careful monitoring over the upcoming days. Severe potential will likely resume being negligible again as boundary-layer moisture becomes limited over the Gulf until around late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest guidance continues to converge towards the notion of secondary cyclogenesis in the north-central Gulf vicinity, during the latter half of D3 into D4. This process should occur as the intense mid-level jet, centered on the Rio Grande Valley/south TX into the northwest Gulf at 12Z Sunday, translates eastward across much of the Gulf into the FL Peninsula by early Monday. A potential high-shear/low-CAPE environment remains plausible across roughly the southern third of FL for a 3-6 hour period during Sunday morning to afternoon. A substantial influx of low-level moisture will be necessary after an initially dry air mass lingers over most of the peninsula through D3. Widespread convection is expected to approach the peninsula Sunday morning, within the robust low-level warm conveyor ahead of a sweeping Pacific cold front and diffluent upper flow regime. Instability should be quite limited where low-level shear is large, but this will need careful monitoring over the upcoming days. Severe potential will likely resume being negligible again as boundary-layer moisture becomes limited over the Gulf until around late next week. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND ALONG THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and along the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning near the Middle to Upper TX Coast. Widespread convection expected in TX on D2 appears unlikely to clear the coast before 12Z Saturday. The plume of surface-based instability ahead of this activity should be centered from Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf, with a gradient of diminishing values to the northeast where surface dew points fall to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection becomes confined to the Gulf towards midday. The intrusion of surface-based instability in LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal surface heating, amid widespread rain/clouds during the day. Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along the surface trough extending southeast of the primary occluded cyclone over the TX Panhandle. Guidance appears fairly aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer heating in the wake of morning coastal convection. If this indeed occurs, it should be coincident with mid to upper 50s surface dew points and steepening mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough. This could foster a threat for isolated severe hail, with low confidence in the north-northwest extent of this potential across east TX. ..Grams.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND ALONG THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and along the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning near the Middle to Upper TX Coast. Widespread convection expected in TX on D2 appears unlikely to clear the coast before 12Z Saturday. The plume of surface-based instability ahead of this activity should be centered from Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf, with a gradient of diminishing values to the northeast where surface dew points fall to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection becomes confined to the Gulf towards midday. The intrusion of surface-based instability in LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal surface heating, amid widespread rain/clouds during the day. Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along the surface trough extending southeast of the primary occluded cyclone over the TX Panhandle. Guidance appears fairly aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer heating in the wake of morning coastal convection. If this indeed occurs, it should be coincident with mid to upper 50s surface dew points and steepening mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough. This could foster a threat for isolated severe hail, with low confidence in the north-northwest extent of this potential across east TX. ..Grams.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND ALONG THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and along the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning near the Middle to Upper TX Coast. Widespread convection expected in TX on D2 appears unlikely to clear the coast before 12Z Saturday. The plume of surface-based instability ahead of this activity should be centered from Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf, with a gradient of diminishing values to the northeast where surface dew points fall to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection becomes confined to the Gulf towards midday. The intrusion of surface-based instability in LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal surface heating, amid widespread rain/clouds during the day. Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along the surface trough extending southeast of the primary occluded cyclone over the TX Panhandle. Guidance appears fairly aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer heating in the wake of morning coastal convection. If this indeed occurs, it should be coincident with mid to upper 50s surface dew points and steepening mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough. This could foster a threat for isolated severe hail, with low confidence in the north-northwest extent of this potential across east TX. ..Grams.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND ALONG THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and along the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning near the Middle to Upper TX Coast. Widespread convection expected in TX on D2 appears unlikely to clear the coast before 12Z Saturday. The plume of surface-based instability ahead of this activity should be centered from Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf, with a gradient of diminishing values to the northeast where surface dew points fall to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection becomes confined to the Gulf towards midday. The intrusion of surface-based instability in LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal surface heating, amid widespread rain/clouds during the day. Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along the surface trough extending southeast of the primary occluded cyclone over the TX Panhandle. Guidance appears fairly aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer heating in the wake of morning coastal convection. If this indeed occurs, it should be coincident with mid to upper 50s surface dew points and steepening mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough. This could foster a threat for isolated severe hail, with low confidence in the north-northwest extent of this potential across east TX. ..Grams.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND ALONG THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and along the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning near the Middle to Upper TX Coast. Widespread convection expected in TX on D2 appears unlikely to clear the coast before 12Z Saturday. The plume of surface-based instability ahead of this activity should be centered from Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf, with a gradient of diminishing values to the northeast where surface dew points fall to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection becomes confined to the Gulf towards midday. The intrusion of surface-based instability in LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal surface heating, amid widespread rain/clouds during the day. Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along the surface trough extending southeast of the primary occluded cyclone over the TX Panhandle. Guidance appears fairly aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer heating in the wake of morning coastal convection. If this indeed occurs, it should be coincident with mid to upper 50s surface dew points and steepening mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough. This could foster a threat for isolated severe hail, with low confidence in the north-northwest extent of this potential across east TX. ..Grams.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND ALONG THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and along the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning near the Middle to Upper TX Coast. Widespread convection expected in TX on D2 appears unlikely to clear the coast before 12Z Saturday. The plume of surface-based instability ahead of this activity should be centered from Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf, with a gradient of diminishing values to the northeast where surface dew points fall to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection becomes confined to the Gulf towards midday. The intrusion of surface-based instability in LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal surface heating, amid widespread rain/clouds during the day. Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along the surface trough extending southeast of the primary occluded cyclone over the TX Panhandle. Guidance appears fairly aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer heating in the wake of morning coastal convection. If this indeed occurs, it should be coincident with mid to upper 50s surface dew points and steepening mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough. This could foster a threat for isolated severe hail, with low confidence in the north-northwest extent of this potential across east TX. ..Grams.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around 20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds, the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep fire weather concerns low. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around 20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds, the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep fire weather concerns low. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more