Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments needed. Forecast concerns regarding the southern/central High Plains remains on track (see the previous discussion below for details). Across southern GA and Florida, dry air is slowly filtering into region as a cold front pushes into central FL under mostly clear skies. With no apparent inhibitions for maximal RH reductions this afternoon, RH reductions into the mid to low 30s appear probable from northern to central FL. Additionally, the probability of sustained winds over 15 mph seems reasonably high, and should support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions. This appears most likely to occur across central FL, but fuels remains only marginally dry based on latest fuel reports. Highlights are withheld due to the limited availability of receptive fuels, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions is probable. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Amplified upper-level ridging will move into the Plains today. Along the West Coast, a broad upper trough will move ashore during the period. Farther east, a weak shortwave trough will lift out of the Southwest and into the central Rockies. A strong shortwave trough will exit the southeastern U.S. coastline. ...Parts of southern/central High Plains... A deeper lee trough will develop in response to the weak shortwave trough and otherwise generally increasing mid-level flow across the southern Rockies. Dry and windy conditions are possible from the Texas Panhandle into adjacent Colorado and Kansas. RH will more than likely stay above 20% for most areas (partially due to cloud cover) and winds will be marginal. Unreceptive fuels will further reduce overall fire weather concerns. ...Southern Georgia/North Florida... The shortwave trough moving through the area will deepen a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas. This should help to increase northwesterly winds across the region. RH near 30% appears possible with winds of 10-15 mph (locally greater). Without drier fuels, however, fire weather risk will likely remain minimal to localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments needed. Forecast concerns regarding the southern/central High Plains remains on track (see the previous discussion below for details). Across southern GA and Florida, dry air is slowly filtering into region as a cold front pushes into central FL under mostly clear skies. With no apparent inhibitions for maximal RH reductions this afternoon, RH reductions into the mid to low 30s appear probable from northern to central FL. Additionally, the probability of sustained winds over 15 mph seems reasonably high, and should support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions. This appears most likely to occur across central FL, but fuels remains only marginally dry based on latest fuel reports. Highlights are withheld due to the limited availability of receptive fuels, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions is probable. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Amplified upper-level ridging will move into the Plains today. Along the West Coast, a broad upper trough will move ashore during the period. Farther east, a weak shortwave trough will lift out of the Southwest and into the central Rockies. A strong shortwave trough will exit the southeastern U.S. coastline. ...Parts of southern/central High Plains... A deeper lee trough will develop in response to the weak shortwave trough and otherwise generally increasing mid-level flow across the southern Rockies. Dry and windy conditions are possible from the Texas Panhandle into adjacent Colorado and Kansas. RH will more than likely stay above 20% for most areas (partially due to cloud cover) and winds will be marginal. Unreceptive fuels will further reduce overall fire weather concerns. ...Southern Georgia/North Florida... The shortwave trough moving through the area will deepen a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas. This should help to increase northwesterly winds across the region. RH near 30% appears possible with winds of 10-15 mph (locally greater). Without drier fuels, however, fire weather risk will likely remain minimal to localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible mainly late this evening and overnight along parts of the California Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over the vast majority of the CONUS today. An upper trough will move quickly off the Southeast Atlantic Coast this afternoon, and associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. Generally dry and stable surface conditions will prevail east of the Rockies, precluding convection. A highly amplified upper trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast through the period. Associated cooling mid-level temperatures should gradually move inland late this evening and overnight. The development of weak instability that is sufficiently deep though mid levels to support charge separation remains uncertain. Still, isolated, low-topped convection capable of producing occasional lightning flashes may move onshore along parts of the CA Coast, mainly after 06Z. ..Gleason.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible mainly late this evening and overnight along parts of the California Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over the vast majority of the CONUS today. An upper trough will move quickly off the Southeast Atlantic Coast this afternoon, and associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. Generally dry and stable surface conditions will prevail east of the Rockies, precluding convection. A highly amplified upper trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast through the period. Associated cooling mid-level temperatures should gradually move inland late this evening and overnight. The development of weak instability that is sufficiently deep though mid levels to support charge separation remains uncertain. Still, isolated, low-topped convection capable of producing occasional lightning flashes may move onshore along parts of the CA Coast, mainly after 06Z. ..Gleason.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible mainly late this evening and overnight along parts of the California Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over the vast majority of the CONUS today. An upper trough will move quickly off the Southeast Atlantic Coast this afternoon, and associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. Generally dry and stable surface conditions will prevail east of the Rockies, precluding convection. A highly amplified upper trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast through the period. Associated cooling mid-level temperatures should gradually move inland late this evening and overnight. The development of weak instability that is sufficiently deep though mid levels to support charge separation remains uncertain. Still, isolated, low-topped convection capable of producing occasional lightning flashes may move onshore along parts of the CA Coast, mainly after 06Z. ..Gleason.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible mainly late this evening and overnight along parts of the California Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over the vast majority of the CONUS today. An upper trough will move quickly off the Southeast Atlantic Coast this afternoon, and associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. Generally dry and stable surface conditions will prevail east of the Rockies, precluding convection. A highly amplified upper trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast through the period. Associated cooling mid-level temperatures should gradually move inland late this evening and overnight. The development of weak instability that is sufficiently deep though mid levels to support charge separation remains uncertain. Still, isolated, low-topped convection capable of producing occasional lightning flashes may move onshore along parts of the CA Coast, mainly after 06Z. ..Gleason.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible mainly late this evening and overnight along parts of the California Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over the vast majority of the CONUS today. An upper trough will move quickly off the Southeast Atlantic Coast this afternoon, and associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. Generally dry and stable surface conditions will prevail east of the Rockies, precluding convection. A highly amplified upper trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast through the period. Associated cooling mid-level temperatures should gradually move inland late this evening and overnight. The development of weak instability that is sufficiently deep though mid levels to support charge separation remains uncertain. Still, isolated, low-topped convection capable of producing occasional lightning flashes may move onshore along parts of the CA Coast, mainly after 06Z. ..Gleason.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible mainly late this evening and overnight along parts of the California Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over the vast majority of the CONUS today. An upper trough will move quickly off the Southeast Atlantic Coast this afternoon, and associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. Generally dry and stable surface conditions will prevail east of the Rockies, precluding convection. A highly amplified upper trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast through the period. Associated cooling mid-level temperatures should gradually move inland late this evening and overnight. The development of weak instability that is sufficiently deep though mid levels to support charge separation remains uncertain. Still, isolated, low-topped convection capable of producing occasional lightning flashes may move onshore along parts of the CA Coast, mainly after 06Z. ..Gleason.. 01/31/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4-5/Saturday-Sunday across the Gulf Coast States... Severe potential appears to be trending somewhat lower as guidance gradually converges on the large-scale upper pattern. Moderate run-to-run differences and ensemble spread exist with the potential evolution of multiple surface cyclones and timing of their consolidation towards Sunday-Monday. A low-end severe threat from late D3 may linger into early D4, mainly over the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast. Surface-based buoyancy may remain quite weak owing to richer Gulf moisture holding to the south, in conjunction with widespread ongoing convection. The latter will be supported by a highly diffluent upper flow regime in the left-exit region of a very fast jet streak lagging well to the west. Guidance has decent agreement with deep convection spreading east from the western to the eastern Gulf, arcing back to the northwest across the Lower MS Valley by Sunday morning. This should mitigate appreciable surface-based destabilization across the northern Gulf Coast outside of perhaps coastal LA. Surface ridging across FL may linger into D4, suggesting that the low-level moisture influx on D5 will be accompanied by abundant warm-conveyor convection. As such, surface-based instability may be rather limited outside of the central FL Gulf Coast to parts of south FL. In addition, substantially stronger mid/upper flow should lag deep convection when it spreads across the peninsula. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4-5/Saturday-Sunday across the Gulf Coast States... Severe potential appears to be trending somewhat lower as guidance gradually converges on the large-scale upper pattern. Moderate run-to-run differences and ensemble spread exist with the potential evolution of multiple surface cyclones and timing of their consolidation towards Sunday-Monday. A low-end severe threat from late D3 may linger into early D4, mainly over the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast. Surface-based buoyancy may remain quite weak owing to richer Gulf moisture holding to the south, in conjunction with widespread ongoing convection. The latter will be supported by a highly diffluent upper flow regime in the left-exit region of a very fast jet streak lagging well to the west. Guidance has decent agreement with deep convection spreading east from the western to the eastern Gulf, arcing back to the northwest across the Lower MS Valley by Sunday morning. This should mitigate appreciable surface-based destabilization across the northern Gulf Coast outside of perhaps coastal LA. Surface ridging across FL may linger into D4, suggesting that the low-level moisture influx on D5 will be accompanied by abundant warm-conveyor convection. As such, surface-based instability may be rather limited outside of the central FL Gulf Coast to parts of south FL. In addition, substantially stronger mid/upper flow should lag deep convection when it spreads across the peninsula. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4-5/Saturday-Sunday across the Gulf Coast States... Severe potential appears to be trending somewhat lower as guidance gradually converges on the large-scale upper pattern. Moderate run-to-run differences and ensemble spread exist with the potential evolution of multiple surface cyclones and timing of their consolidation towards Sunday-Monday. A low-end severe threat from late D3 may linger into early D4, mainly over the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast. Surface-based buoyancy may remain quite weak owing to richer Gulf moisture holding to the south, in conjunction with widespread ongoing convection. The latter will be supported by a highly diffluent upper flow regime in the left-exit region of a very fast jet streak lagging well to the west. Guidance has decent agreement with deep convection spreading east from the western to the eastern Gulf, arcing back to the northwest across the Lower MS Valley by Sunday morning. This should mitigate appreciable surface-based destabilization across the northern Gulf Coast outside of perhaps coastal LA. Surface ridging across FL may linger into D4, suggesting that the low-level moisture influx on D5 will be accompanied by abundant warm-conveyor convection. As such, surface-based instability may be rather limited outside of the central FL Gulf Coast to parts of south FL. In addition, substantially stronger mid/upper flow should lag deep convection when it spreads across the peninsula. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4-5/Saturday-Sunday across the Gulf Coast States... Severe potential appears to be trending somewhat lower as guidance gradually converges on the large-scale upper pattern. Moderate run-to-run differences and ensemble spread exist with the potential evolution of multiple surface cyclones and timing of their consolidation towards Sunday-Monday. A low-end severe threat from late D3 may linger into early D4, mainly over the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast. Surface-based buoyancy may remain quite weak owing to richer Gulf moisture holding to the south, in conjunction with widespread ongoing convection. The latter will be supported by a highly diffluent upper flow regime in the left-exit region of a very fast jet streak lagging well to the west. Guidance has decent agreement with deep convection spreading east from the western to the eastern Gulf, arcing back to the northwest across the Lower MS Valley by Sunday morning. This should mitigate appreciable surface-based destabilization across the northern Gulf Coast outside of perhaps coastal LA. Surface ridging across FL may linger into D4, suggesting that the low-level moisture influx on D5 will be accompanied by abundant warm-conveyor convection. As such, surface-based instability may be rather limited outside of the central FL Gulf Coast to parts of south FL. In addition, substantially stronger mid/upper flow should lag deep convection when it spreads across the peninsula. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4-5/Saturday-Sunday across the Gulf Coast States... Severe potential appears to be trending somewhat lower as guidance gradually converges on the large-scale upper pattern. Moderate run-to-run differences and ensemble spread exist with the potential evolution of multiple surface cyclones and timing of their consolidation towards Sunday-Monday. A low-end severe threat from late D3 may linger into early D4, mainly over the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast. Surface-based buoyancy may remain quite weak owing to richer Gulf moisture holding to the south, in conjunction with widespread ongoing convection. The latter will be supported by a highly diffluent upper flow regime in the left-exit region of a very fast jet streak lagging well to the west. Guidance has decent agreement with deep convection spreading east from the western to the eastern Gulf, arcing back to the northwest across the Lower MS Valley by Sunday morning. This should mitigate appreciable surface-based destabilization across the northern Gulf Coast outside of perhaps coastal LA. Surface ridging across FL may linger into D4, suggesting that the low-level moisture influx on D5 will be accompanied by abundant warm-conveyor convection. As such, surface-based instability may be rather limited outside of the central FL Gulf Coast to parts of south FL. In addition, substantially stronger mid/upper flow should lag deep convection when it spreads across the peninsula. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4-5/Saturday-Sunday across the Gulf Coast States... Severe potential appears to be trending somewhat lower as guidance gradually converges on the large-scale upper pattern. Moderate run-to-run differences and ensemble spread exist with the potential evolution of multiple surface cyclones and timing of their consolidation towards Sunday-Monday. A low-end severe threat from late D3 may linger into early D4, mainly over the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast. Surface-based buoyancy may remain quite weak owing to richer Gulf moisture holding to the south, in conjunction with widespread ongoing convection. The latter will be supported by a highly diffluent upper flow regime in the left-exit region of a very fast jet streak lagging well to the west. Guidance has decent agreement with deep convection spreading east from the western to the eastern Gulf, arcing back to the northwest across the Lower MS Valley by Sunday morning. This should mitigate appreciable surface-based destabilization across the northern Gulf Coast outside of perhaps coastal LA. Surface ridging across FL may linger into D4, suggesting that the low-level moisture influx on D5 will be accompanied by abundant warm-conveyor convection. As such, surface-based instability may be rather limited outside of the central FL Gulf Coast to parts of south FL. In addition, substantially stronger mid/upper flow should lag deep convection when it spreads across the peninsula. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of north-central to south Texas. ...TX... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from late afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of an increasingly fast mid/upper jet shifting east across Baja CA and northern Mexico. A highly diffluent flow regime, coupled with the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse across NM, will favor peak-heating thunderstorms along the Pacific cold front/dryline, centered on western north TX to the Edwards Plateau. Deep-layer shear/flow should be modest initially and more meridional with northern extent, before gradual strengthening occurs towards 12Z Saturday. Modified boundary-layer moisture return, while adequate for deep convection, appears unlikely to reach typical western Gulf quality with mid to upper 60s surface dew points staying offshore. As a result, peak MLCAPE will probably hold from 500-1000 J/kg. The net outcome of this setup should tend to yield several clusters, with short-lived discrete modes confined to the early convective life cycle. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard during the late afternoon and evening, with perhaps a greater signal for this in a mesoscale area centered on south-central TX. Otherwise, some threat for strong to perhaps localized severe gusts, and maybe a brief tornado, will be possible as low-level flow strengthens towards the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast, but the degree of this intensification differs across guidance. Amid the probable weak buoyancy, a low-probability severe highlight remains appropriate for this time frame. ..Grams.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of north-central to south Texas. ...TX... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from late afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of an increasingly fast mid/upper jet shifting east across Baja CA and northern Mexico. A highly diffluent flow regime, coupled with the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse across NM, will favor peak-heating thunderstorms along the Pacific cold front/dryline, centered on western north TX to the Edwards Plateau. Deep-layer shear/flow should be modest initially and more meridional with northern extent, before gradual strengthening occurs towards 12Z Saturday. Modified boundary-layer moisture return, while adequate for deep convection, appears unlikely to reach typical western Gulf quality with mid to upper 60s surface dew points staying offshore. As a result, peak MLCAPE will probably hold from 500-1000 J/kg. The net outcome of this setup should tend to yield several clusters, with short-lived discrete modes confined to the early convective life cycle. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard during the late afternoon and evening, with perhaps a greater signal for this in a mesoscale area centered on south-central TX. Otherwise, some threat for strong to perhaps localized severe gusts, and maybe a brief tornado, will be possible as low-level flow strengthens towards the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast, but the degree of this intensification differs across guidance. Amid the probable weak buoyancy, a low-probability severe highlight remains appropriate for this time frame. ..Grams.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of north-central to south Texas. ...TX... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from late afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of an increasingly fast mid/upper jet shifting east across Baja CA and northern Mexico. A highly diffluent flow regime, coupled with the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse across NM, will favor peak-heating thunderstorms along the Pacific cold front/dryline, centered on western north TX to the Edwards Plateau. Deep-layer shear/flow should be modest initially and more meridional with northern extent, before gradual strengthening occurs towards 12Z Saturday. Modified boundary-layer moisture return, while adequate for deep convection, appears unlikely to reach typical western Gulf quality with mid to upper 60s surface dew points staying offshore. As a result, peak MLCAPE will probably hold from 500-1000 J/kg. The net outcome of this setup should tend to yield several clusters, with short-lived discrete modes confined to the early convective life cycle. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard during the late afternoon and evening, with perhaps a greater signal for this in a mesoscale area centered on south-central TX. Otherwise, some threat for strong to perhaps localized severe gusts, and maybe a brief tornado, will be possible as low-level flow strengthens towards the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast, but the degree of this intensification differs across guidance. Amid the probable weak buoyancy, a low-probability severe highlight remains appropriate for this time frame. ..Grams.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of north-central to south Texas. ...TX... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from late afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of an increasingly fast mid/upper jet shifting east across Baja CA and northern Mexico. A highly diffluent flow regime, coupled with the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse across NM, will favor peak-heating thunderstorms along the Pacific cold front/dryline, centered on western north TX to the Edwards Plateau. Deep-layer shear/flow should be modest initially and more meridional with northern extent, before gradual strengthening occurs towards 12Z Saturday. Modified boundary-layer moisture return, while adequate for deep convection, appears unlikely to reach typical western Gulf quality with mid to upper 60s surface dew points staying offshore. As a result, peak MLCAPE will probably hold from 500-1000 J/kg. The net outcome of this setup should tend to yield several clusters, with short-lived discrete modes confined to the early convective life cycle. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard during the late afternoon and evening, with perhaps a greater signal for this in a mesoscale area centered on south-central TX. Otherwise, some threat for strong to perhaps localized severe gusts, and maybe a brief tornado, will be possible as low-level flow strengthens towards the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast, but the degree of this intensification differs across guidance. Amid the probable weak buoyancy, a low-probability severe highlight remains appropriate for this time frame. ..Grams.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of north-central to south Texas. ...TX... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from late afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of an increasingly fast mid/upper jet shifting east across Baja CA and northern Mexico. A highly diffluent flow regime, coupled with the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse across NM, will favor peak-heating thunderstorms along the Pacific cold front/dryline, centered on western north TX to the Edwards Plateau. Deep-layer shear/flow should be modest initially and more meridional with northern extent, before gradual strengthening occurs towards 12Z Saturday. Modified boundary-layer moisture return, while adequate for deep convection, appears unlikely to reach typical western Gulf quality with mid to upper 60s surface dew points staying offshore. As a result, peak MLCAPE will probably hold from 500-1000 J/kg. The net outcome of this setup should tend to yield several clusters, with short-lived discrete modes confined to the early convective life cycle. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard during the late afternoon and evening, with perhaps a greater signal for this in a mesoscale area centered on south-central TX. Otherwise, some threat for strong to perhaps localized severe gusts, and maybe a brief tornado, will be possible as low-level flow strengthens towards the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast, but the degree of this intensification differs across guidance. Amid the probable weak buoyancy, a low-probability severe highlight remains appropriate for this time frame. ..Grams.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of north-central to south Texas. ...TX... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from late afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of an increasingly fast mid/upper jet shifting east across Baja CA and northern Mexico. A highly diffluent flow regime, coupled with the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse across NM, will favor peak-heating thunderstorms along the Pacific cold front/dryline, centered on western north TX to the Edwards Plateau. Deep-layer shear/flow should be modest initially and more meridional with northern extent, before gradual strengthening occurs towards 12Z Saturday. Modified boundary-layer moisture return, while adequate for deep convection, appears unlikely to reach typical western Gulf quality with mid to upper 60s surface dew points staying offshore. As a result, peak MLCAPE will probably hold from 500-1000 J/kg. The net outcome of this setup should tend to yield several clusters, with short-lived discrete modes confined to the early convective life cycle. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard during the late afternoon and evening, with perhaps a greater signal for this in a mesoscale area centered on south-central TX. Otherwise, some threat for strong to perhaps localized severe gusts, and maybe a brief tornado, will be possible as low-level flow strengthens towards the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast, but the degree of this intensification differs across guidance. Amid the probable weak buoyancy, a low-probability severe highlight remains appropriate for this time frame. ..Grams.. 01/31/2024 Read more