Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A dry continental airmass will be in place east of the Rockies early Tuesday morning. A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress southwestward from the Upper Midwest through the OH and TN Valley and into the southern Appalachians. An attendant surface low and associated cold front will move southeastward in tandem with the shortwave as well. Airmass modification ahead of this system will be limited, with any notable low-level moisture remaining well offshore. Even so, cold mid-level temperatures could result in modest buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes, particularly from the Carolina Piedmont into northeast GA. However, coverage is expected to remain below 10%. Secondary surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off the Carolina coast early Wednesday morning, with related warm-air advection contributing to some potential for elevated thunderstorms and isolated lightning flashes offshore. Farther west, a deep cyclone is forecast to move eastward towards the West Coast, while a pair of shortwave troughs eject through its eastern periphery into the Pacific Northwest. Primary frontal band is expected to reach the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Some limited elevated buoyancy is possible within this band, contributing to deeper convection element and the chance for a lightning flash or two. However, overall coverage of thunderstorms should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies. Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude thunderstorms west of the Rockies. While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies. Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude thunderstorms west of the Rockies. While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies. Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude thunderstorms west of the Rockies. While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies. Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude thunderstorms west of the Rockies. While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies. Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude thunderstorms west of the Rockies. While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies. Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude thunderstorms west of the Rockies. While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Morning surface observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low fire weather potential. Forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 01/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward into the Four Corners vicinity today. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained in the Great Basin into the northern Rockies while high pressure in the southern Plains will weaken. Dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, but fuel receptiveness is poor and winds will be quite light. Fire weather concerns continue to minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Morning surface observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low fire weather potential. Forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 01/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward into the Four Corners vicinity today. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained in the Great Basin into the northern Rockies while high pressure in the southern Plains will weaken. Dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, but fuel receptiveness is poor and winds will be quite light. Fire weather concerns continue to minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Morning surface observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low fire weather potential. Forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 01/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward into the Four Corners vicinity today. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained in the Great Basin into the northern Rockies while high pressure in the southern Plains will weaken. Dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, but fuel receptiveness is poor and winds will be quite light. Fire weather concerns continue to minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Morning surface observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low fire weather potential. Forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 01/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward into the Four Corners vicinity today. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained in the Great Basin into the northern Rockies while high pressure in the southern Plains will weaken. Dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, but fuel receptiveness is poor and winds will be quite light. Fire weather concerns continue to minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Morning surface observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low fire weather potential. Forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 01/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward into the Four Corners vicinity today. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained in the Great Basin into the northern Rockies while high pressure in the southern Plains will weaken. Dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, but fuel receptiveness is poor and winds will be quite light. Fire weather concerns continue to minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Morning surface observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low fire weather potential. Forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 01/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward into the Four Corners vicinity today. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained in the Great Basin into the northern Rockies while high pressure in the southern Plains will weaken. Dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, but fuel receptiveness is poor and winds will be quite light. Fire weather concerns continue to minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain unsuitable for deep moist convection through the period over most of the CONUS. A strong, synoptic-scale trough -- now exiting the East Coast, has been preceded by a surface cold front leaving a cool, stable boundary layer behind it, east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a high-amplitude ridge will shift slowly eastward across the Intermountain West, Great Basin and northern Rockies. A northern-stream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over MB -- is forecast to dig southeastward to the Upper Great Lakes and mid/upper parts of the Mississippi Valley overnight. This feature will be preceded by a strengthening low-level cold front and large-scale lift aloft. An associated band of precip -- with embedded, weak, mainly midlevel convection -- should cross parts of MI/Lake Michigan/IL overnight, reaching northern IN by 12Z. While some forecast soundings indicate very weak elevated MUCAPE (less than 100 J/kg) in roughly the 600-500-mb layer, any lighting potential appears too uncertain and isolated for an unconditional, 10% general-thunder area. ..Edwards.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain unsuitable for deep moist convection through the period over most of the CONUS. A strong, synoptic-scale trough -- now exiting the East Coast, has been preceded by a surface cold front leaving a cool, stable boundary layer behind it, east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a high-amplitude ridge will shift slowly eastward across the Intermountain West, Great Basin and northern Rockies. A northern-stream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over MB -- is forecast to dig southeastward to the Upper Great Lakes and mid/upper parts of the Mississippi Valley overnight. This feature will be preceded by a strengthening low-level cold front and large-scale lift aloft. An associated band of precip -- with embedded, weak, mainly midlevel convection -- should cross parts of MI/Lake Michigan/IL overnight, reaching northern IN by 12Z. While some forecast soundings indicate very weak elevated MUCAPE (less than 100 J/kg) in roughly the 600-500-mb layer, any lighting potential appears too uncertain and isolated for an unconditional, 10% general-thunder area. ..Edwards.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain unsuitable for deep moist convection through the period over most of the CONUS. A strong, synoptic-scale trough -- now exiting the East Coast, has been preceded by a surface cold front leaving a cool, stable boundary layer behind it, east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a high-amplitude ridge will shift slowly eastward across the Intermountain West, Great Basin and northern Rockies. A northern-stream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over MB -- is forecast to dig southeastward to the Upper Great Lakes and mid/upper parts of the Mississippi Valley overnight. This feature will be preceded by a strengthening low-level cold front and large-scale lift aloft. An associated band of precip -- with embedded, weak, mainly midlevel convection -- should cross parts of MI/Lake Michigan/IL overnight, reaching northern IN by 12Z. While some forecast soundings indicate very weak elevated MUCAPE (less than 100 J/kg) in roughly the 600-500-mb layer, any lighting potential appears too uncertain and isolated for an unconditional, 10% general-thunder area. ..Edwards.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain unsuitable for deep moist convection through the period over most of the CONUS. A strong, synoptic-scale trough -- now exiting the East Coast, has been preceded by a surface cold front leaving a cool, stable boundary layer behind it, east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a high-amplitude ridge will shift slowly eastward across the Intermountain West, Great Basin and northern Rockies. A northern-stream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over MB -- is forecast to dig southeastward to the Upper Great Lakes and mid/upper parts of the Mississippi Valley overnight. This feature will be preceded by a strengthening low-level cold front and large-scale lift aloft. An associated band of precip -- with embedded, weak, mainly midlevel convection -- should cross parts of MI/Lake Michigan/IL overnight, reaching northern IN by 12Z. While some forecast soundings indicate very weak elevated MUCAPE (less than 100 J/kg) in roughly the 600-500-mb layer, any lighting potential appears too uncertain and isolated for an unconditional, 10% general-thunder area. ..Edwards.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain unsuitable for deep moist convection through the period over most of the CONUS. A strong, synoptic-scale trough -- now exiting the East Coast, has been preceded by a surface cold front leaving a cool, stable boundary layer behind it, east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a high-amplitude ridge will shift slowly eastward across the Intermountain West, Great Basin and northern Rockies. A northern-stream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over MB -- is forecast to dig southeastward to the Upper Great Lakes and mid/upper parts of the Mississippi Valley overnight. This feature will be preceded by a strengthening low-level cold front and large-scale lift aloft. An associated band of precip -- with embedded, weak, mainly midlevel convection -- should cross parts of MI/Lake Michigan/IL overnight, reaching northern IN by 12Z. While some forecast soundings indicate very weak elevated MUCAPE (less than 100 J/kg) in roughly the 600-500-mb layer, any lighting potential appears too uncertain and isolated for an unconditional, 10% general-thunder area. ..Edwards.. 01/29/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area of interest exists for mainly isolated severe potential, centered on early D6 across the TX/LA coastal plain and sometime on D7 over the FL Peninsula. Large-scale predictability has increased over the past 24 hours with the subsequent evolution of the well-advertised, full-latitude longwave trough approaching the West Coast on D4. Amid several embedded vorticity maxima and a very fast mid/upper jet, the trough will become negatively tilted followed by evolving into a closed low near and along the Gulf Coast through this weekend. With surface ridging being maintained across the eastern Gulf and FL on D4-6, the warm-moist sector should be spatially confined initially to the western Gulf. While this will undoubtedly lead to thunder coverage increasing substantially by late Friday over parts of TX, the bulk of isolated severe potential should be maximized on Saturday near the coastal plain where boundary-layer moisture will be richest. Guidance suggests a progressive evolution will persist into Sunday, potentially yielding a rapid influx of Gulf moisture for a seemingly isolated severe threat across the FL Peninsula. Sub-synoptic differences remain quite apparent among deterministic guidance regarding the spatiotemporal details of surface cyclone evolution and low-level wind fields, with a large degree of ensemble member spread. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area of interest exists for mainly isolated severe potential, centered on early D6 across the TX/LA coastal plain and sometime on D7 over the FL Peninsula. Large-scale predictability has increased over the past 24 hours with the subsequent evolution of the well-advertised, full-latitude longwave trough approaching the West Coast on D4. Amid several embedded vorticity maxima and a very fast mid/upper jet, the trough will become negatively tilted followed by evolving into a closed low near and along the Gulf Coast through this weekend. With surface ridging being maintained across the eastern Gulf and FL on D4-6, the warm-moist sector should be spatially confined initially to the western Gulf. While this will undoubtedly lead to thunder coverage increasing substantially by late Friday over parts of TX, the bulk of isolated severe potential should be maximized on Saturday near the coastal plain where boundary-layer moisture will be richest. Guidance suggests a progressive evolution will persist into Sunday, potentially yielding a rapid influx of Gulf moisture for a seemingly isolated severe threat across the FL Peninsula. Sub-synoptic differences remain quite apparent among deterministic guidance regarding the spatiotemporal details of surface cyclone evolution and low-level wind fields, with a large degree of ensemble member spread. Read more