Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. An upper-level ridge currently in place across the western CONUS is forecast to slowly migrate east through mid-week. This will establish a mean northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern U.S., which typically favors relatively dry and quiescent conditions across the Plains with occasional rain/snow chances across the Pacific Northwest/West Coast and east of the MS River Valley. Some drying is expected along the High Plains amid anomalously warm temperatures, but weak winds should limit fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are expected to increase across the Southwest and southern/central Plains heading into next weekend as a more robust upper wave approaches the region. Some solutions hint at fire weather concerns across the greater southwest TX region late in the period, but notable spread in deterministic guidance and low ensemble probabilities limit confidence in this potential. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0093 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0093 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 271838Z - 272045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A line of organized storms will impact portions of the Florida Panhandle in the next two hours. Strong/severe gusts are the main concern, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KEVX depicts a well-organized line of storms south of Pensacola FL tracking east-northeastward at around 45 kt. This convection is feeding off of the northern periphery of a high theta-e air mass over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Current thinking is that 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (sampled by KEVX VWP) oriented perpendicular to the leading-edge gust front should support the maintenance of these storms. Ahead of the line, filtered diurnal heating/destabilization of a moistening boundary layer (upper 60s dewpoints) is ongoing over portions of the central FL Panhandle. Given this downstream destabilization and the increasing organization of the convective line (including northern book-end vortex), strong to severe gusts are possible over portions of the central Florida Panhandle in the next two hours. Additionally, 40 kt of 0-1 km shear (per KEVX VWP) could support an isolated embedded tornado threat. Overall, confidence in the line of storms maintaining current intensity is not particularly high, though convective trends are being monitored closely. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 30258606 30438610 30678586 30798551 30768503 30668449 30458421 30008416 29678451 29548491 29628540 29898573 30258606 Read more

WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093 ..WEINMAN..01/27/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-065-073-077-129-133-272140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JACKSON JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA WASHINGTON GAC007-087-131-201-205-253-275-272140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER DECATUR GRADY MILLER MITCHELL SEMINOLE THOMAS GMZ730-750-752-755-272140- CW Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible through early evening across parts of the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia. Isolated strong to severe storms also may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...20z Update... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks have been shifted east across the FL Panhandle into far southwest GA through early evening, in alignment with Tornado Watch 12. A bowing line segment developing east/northeast near the coast of the FL Panhandle and just offshore will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes over the next few hours. The damaging wind risk may persist into parts of northern FL where stronger heating as allow for more destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates, necessitating the eastward adjustment in severe probabilities. Severe potential should diminish near/just after sunset. Additional low-topped convection has begun to develop further north along the synoptic cold front near the TN/MS/AL border vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk of strong gusts and possibly marginally severe hail in stronger cores. Some risk of locally strong gusts or perhaps a tornado is also expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across the western/central Carolinas in the vicinity of a warm front. Some minor eastward expansion of severe probabilities has been included with this update to account for latest trends is hi-res guidance. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible through early evening across parts of the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia. Isolated strong to severe storms also may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...20z Update... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks have been shifted east across the FL Panhandle into far southwest GA through early evening, in alignment with Tornado Watch 12. A bowing line segment developing east/northeast near the coast of the FL Panhandle and just offshore will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes over the next few hours. The damaging wind risk may persist into parts of northern FL where stronger heating as allow for more destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates, necessitating the eastward adjustment in severe probabilities. Severe potential should diminish near/just after sunset. Additional low-topped convection has begun to develop further north along the synoptic cold front near the TN/MS/AL border vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk of strong gusts and possibly marginally severe hail in stronger cores. Some risk of locally strong gusts or perhaps a tornado is also expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across the western/central Carolinas in the vicinity of a warm front. Some minor eastward expansion of severe probabilities has been included with this update to account for latest trends is hi-res guidance. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible through early evening across parts of the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia. Isolated strong to severe storms also may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...20z Update... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks have been shifted east across the FL Panhandle into far southwest GA through early evening, in alignment with Tornado Watch 12. A bowing line segment developing east/northeast near the coast of the FL Panhandle and just offshore will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes over the next few hours. The damaging wind risk may persist into parts of northern FL where stronger heating as allow for more destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates, necessitating the eastward adjustment in severe probabilities. Severe potential should diminish near/just after sunset. Additional low-topped convection has begun to develop further north along the synoptic cold front near the TN/MS/AL border vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk of strong gusts and possibly marginally severe hail in stronger cores. Some risk of locally strong gusts or perhaps a tornado is also expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across the western/central Carolinas in the vicinity of a warm front. Some minor eastward expansion of severe probabilities has been included with this update to account for latest trends is hi-res guidance. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible through early evening across parts of the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia. Isolated strong to severe storms also may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...20z Update... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks have been shifted east across the FL Panhandle into far southwest GA through early evening, in alignment with Tornado Watch 12. A bowing line segment developing east/northeast near the coast of the FL Panhandle and just offshore will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes over the next few hours. The damaging wind risk may persist into parts of northern FL where stronger heating as allow for more destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates, necessitating the eastward adjustment in severe probabilities. Severe potential should diminish near/just after sunset. Additional low-topped convection has begun to develop further north along the synoptic cold front near the TN/MS/AL border vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk of strong gusts and possibly marginally severe hail in stronger cores. Some risk of locally strong gusts or perhaps a tornado is also expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across the western/central Carolinas in the vicinity of a warm front. Some minor eastward expansion of severe probabilities has been included with this update to account for latest trends is hi-res guidance. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible through early evening across parts of the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia. Isolated strong to severe storms also may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...20z Update... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks have been shifted east across the FL Panhandle into far southwest GA through early evening, in alignment with Tornado Watch 12. A bowing line segment developing east/northeast near the coast of the FL Panhandle and just offshore will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes over the next few hours. The damaging wind risk may persist into parts of northern FL where stronger heating as allow for more destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates, necessitating the eastward adjustment in severe probabilities. Severe potential should diminish near/just after sunset. Additional low-topped convection has begun to develop further north along the synoptic cold front near the TN/MS/AL border vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk of strong gusts and possibly marginally severe hail in stronger cores. Some risk of locally strong gusts or perhaps a tornado is also expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across the western/central Carolinas in the vicinity of a warm front. Some minor eastward expansion of severe probabilities has been included with this update to account for latest trends is hi-res guidance. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible through early evening across parts of the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia. Isolated strong to severe storms also may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...20z Update... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks have been shifted east across the FL Panhandle into far southwest GA through early evening, in alignment with Tornado Watch 12. A bowing line segment developing east/northeast near the coast of the FL Panhandle and just offshore will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes over the next few hours. The damaging wind risk may persist into parts of northern FL where stronger heating as allow for more destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates, necessitating the eastward adjustment in severe probabilities. Severe potential should diminish near/just after sunset. Additional low-topped convection has begun to develop further north along the synoptic cold front near the TN/MS/AL border vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk of strong gusts and possibly marginally severe hail in stronger cores. Some risk of locally strong gusts or perhaps a tornado is also expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across the western/central Carolinas in the vicinity of a warm front. Some minor eastward expansion of severe probabilities has been included with this update to account for latest trends is hi-res guidance. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible through early evening across parts of the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia. Isolated strong to severe storms also may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...20z Update... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks have been shifted east across the FL Panhandle into far southwest GA through early evening, in alignment with Tornado Watch 12. A bowing line segment developing east/northeast near the coast of the FL Panhandle and just offshore will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes over the next few hours. The damaging wind risk may persist into parts of northern FL where stronger heating as allow for more destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates, necessitating the eastward adjustment in severe probabilities. Severe potential should diminish near/just after sunset. Additional low-topped convection has begun to develop further north along the synoptic cold front near the TN/MS/AL border vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk of strong gusts and possibly marginally severe hail in stronger cores. Some risk of locally strong gusts or perhaps a tornado is also expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across the western/central Carolinas in the vicinity of a warm front. Some minor eastward expansion of severe probabilities has been included with this update to account for latest trends is hi-res guidance. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible through early evening across parts of the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia. Isolated strong to severe storms also may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...20z Update... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks have been shifted east across the FL Panhandle into far southwest GA through early evening, in alignment with Tornado Watch 12. A bowing line segment developing east/northeast near the coast of the FL Panhandle and just offshore will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes over the next few hours. The damaging wind risk may persist into parts of northern FL where stronger heating as allow for more destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates, necessitating the eastward adjustment in severe probabilities. Severe potential should diminish near/just after sunset. Additional low-topped convection has begun to develop further north along the synoptic cold front near the TN/MS/AL border vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk of strong gusts and possibly marginally severe hail in stronger cores. Some risk of locally strong gusts or perhaps a tornado is also expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across the western/central Carolinas in the vicinity of a warm front. Some minor eastward expansion of severe probabilities has been included with this update to account for latest trends is hi-res guidance. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. Read more

WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE HEZ TO 60 S GLH TO 40 S GWO TO 30 E GWO TO 15 ESE UOX TO 35 S MKL TO 15 NNW MKL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053 ..JEWELL..01/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC003-007-009-013-017-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-049-051- 057-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-081-085-087-089-091-095- 097-099-101-103-105-115-117-121-123-127-129-139-141-145-149-155- 159-163-121540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN ATTALA BENTON CALHOUN CHICKASAW CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE CLARKE CLAY COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS HOLMES ITAWAMBA JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LEE LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PONTOTOC PRENTISS RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may arise across parts of southern AZ and within the coastal terrain of southern CA Sunday afternoon, but unreceptive fuels and limited spatial extent and duration of elevated conditions precludes the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, a similar weather pattern to Saturday will continue. Surface high pressure will be maintained across the West and Plains with some expansion into the Midwest and Southeast expected. Winds are expected to be lighter and RH will remain above critical thresholds for most areas. Fire weather concerns will remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may arise across parts of southern AZ and within the coastal terrain of southern CA Sunday afternoon, but unreceptive fuels and limited spatial extent and duration of elevated conditions precludes the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, a similar weather pattern to Saturday will continue. Surface high pressure will be maintained across the West and Plains with some expansion into the Midwest and Southeast expected. Winds are expected to be lighter and RH will remain above critical thresholds for most areas. Fire weather concerns will remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may arise across parts of southern AZ and within the coastal terrain of southern CA Sunday afternoon, but unreceptive fuels and limited spatial extent and duration of elevated conditions precludes the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, a similar weather pattern to Saturday will continue. Surface high pressure will be maintained across the West and Plains with some expansion into the Midwest and Southeast expected. Winds are expected to be lighter and RH will remain above critical thresholds for most areas. Fire weather concerns will remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may arise across parts of southern AZ and within the coastal terrain of southern CA Sunday afternoon, but unreceptive fuels and limited spatial extent and duration of elevated conditions precludes the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, a similar weather pattern to Saturday will continue. Surface high pressure will be maintained across the West and Plains with some expansion into the Midwest and Southeast expected. Winds are expected to be lighter and RH will remain above critical thresholds for most areas. Fire weather concerns will remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may arise across parts of southern AZ and within the coastal terrain of southern CA Sunday afternoon, but unreceptive fuels and limited spatial extent and duration of elevated conditions precludes the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, a similar weather pattern to Saturday will continue. Surface high pressure will be maintained across the West and Plains with some expansion into the Midwest and Southeast expected. Winds are expected to be lighter and RH will remain above critical thresholds for most areas. Fire weather concerns will remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may arise across parts of southern AZ and within the coastal terrain of southern CA Sunday afternoon, but unreceptive fuels and limited spatial extent and duration of elevated conditions precludes the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, a similar weather pattern to Saturday will continue. Surface high pressure will be maintained across the West and Plains with some expansion into the Midwest and Southeast expected. Winds are expected to be lighter and RH will remain above critical thresholds for most areas. Fire weather concerns will remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may arise across parts of southern AZ and within the coastal terrain of southern CA Sunday afternoon, but unreceptive fuels and limited spatial extent and duration of elevated conditions precludes the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, a similar weather pattern to Saturday will continue. Surface high pressure will be maintained across the West and Plains with some expansion into the Midwest and Southeast expected. Winds are expected to be lighter and RH will remain above critical thresholds for most areas. Fire weather concerns will remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may arise across parts of southern AZ and within the coastal terrain of southern CA Sunday afternoon, but unreceptive fuels and limited spatial extent and duration of elevated conditions precludes the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, a similar weather pattern to Saturday will continue. Surface high pressure will be maintained across the West and Plains with some expansion into the Midwest and Southeast expected. Winds are expected to be lighter and RH will remain above critical thresholds for most areas. Fire weather concerns will remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more