Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough, with split mid-level jets, will move slowly eastward across the central/eastern CONUS on Wednesday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will persist over the Southeast, while a cold front stalls across the FL Panhandle, GA, and Carolinas. At least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along and southeast of the front. But, poor lapse rates and ongoing convection/cloudiness Wednesday morning are expected to hamper robust destabilization. While occasional gusty winds may occur with the strongest thunderstorms that can develop through the afternoon, the overall wind threat appears too limited at this time to include low severe probabilities. There are some indications in various model guidance that convection may develop Wednesday afternoon on the backside of the upper trough across parts of the southern Plains. Typically, this area would be in a subsident regime, with minimal convective potential owing to a lack of low-level moisture/boundary-layer instability. However, in this case, it appears that cold temperatures aloft combined with shallow/residual low-level moisture and daytime heating will provide modest destabilization as the boundary layer becomes well mixed. Weak instability should preclude an organized severe threat, but isolated strong/gusty winds appear possible with any high-based convection that develops. Finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped thunderstorms across coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. This potential should focus mainly in the afternoon and evening time frame, as cold mid-level temperatures and pronounced ascent associated with an approaching upper trough overspread this region. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough, with split mid-level jets, will move slowly eastward across the central/eastern CONUS on Wednesday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will persist over the Southeast, while a cold front stalls across the FL Panhandle, GA, and Carolinas. At least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along and southeast of the front. But, poor lapse rates and ongoing convection/cloudiness Wednesday morning are expected to hamper robust destabilization. While occasional gusty winds may occur with the strongest thunderstorms that can develop through the afternoon, the overall wind threat appears too limited at this time to include low severe probabilities. There are some indications in various model guidance that convection may develop Wednesday afternoon on the backside of the upper trough across parts of the southern Plains. Typically, this area would be in a subsident regime, with minimal convective potential owing to a lack of low-level moisture/boundary-layer instability. However, in this case, it appears that cold temperatures aloft combined with shallow/residual low-level moisture and daytime heating will provide modest destabilization as the boundary layer becomes well mixed. Weak instability should preclude an organized severe threat, but isolated strong/gusty winds appear possible with any high-based convection that develops. Finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped thunderstorms across coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. This potential should focus mainly in the afternoon and evening time frame, as cold mid-level temperatures and pronounced ascent associated with an approaching upper trough overspread this region. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

MD 0299 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0299 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...Central Plains Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 250325Z - 250830Z SUMMARY...Snow rates should increase across portions of the central Plains tonight, possibly approaching 1 inch per hour. DISCUSSION...Latest water-vapor imagery/model data suggest midlevel low is located along the southeast CO/NM border. This feature is ejecting east toward southwest KS where some deepening may occur over the next several hours. This maturation process will result in sharpening corridor of large-scale ascent across the central Plains such that an elongated zone of increasing precipitation should be noted, especially from northwest KS into north-central NE. Latest radar data supports this evolution and profiles should continue to cool along this zone. A developing band of heavy snow is now ongoing from near Burlington CO-LBF-west of ONL. This band may not move appreciably through the early-morning hours and snow rates could easily approach, or perhaps exceed, one inch per hour. Additionally, winds are expected to increase across the high plains and some blowing snow may develop as snow cover increases within the band. ..Darrow.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 39390231 40650147 42549957 42489864 40420039 39180166 39390231 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to overspread the Plains as a mid-level trough approaches the East Coast tomorrow/Tuesday. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the Plains. Locally Elevated conditions are possible by afternoon peak heating over the Trans Pecos region of Texas, but overlapping favorable surface winds/RH do not appear widespread enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to overspread the Plains as a mid-level trough approaches the East Coast tomorrow/Tuesday. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the Plains. Locally Elevated conditions are possible by afternoon peak heating over the Trans Pecos region of Texas, but overlapping favorable surface winds/RH do not appear widespread enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to overspread the Plains as a mid-level trough approaches the East Coast tomorrow/Tuesday. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the Plains. Locally Elevated conditions are possible by afternoon peak heating over the Trans Pecos region of Texas, but overlapping favorable surface winds/RH do not appear widespread enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to overspread the Plains as a mid-level trough approaches the East Coast tomorrow/Tuesday. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the Plains. Locally Elevated conditions are possible by afternoon peak heating over the Trans Pecos region of Texas, but overlapping favorable surface winds/RH do not appear widespread enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to overspread the Plains as a mid-level trough approaches the East Coast tomorrow/Tuesday. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the Plains. Locally Elevated conditions are possible by afternoon peak heating over the Trans Pecos region of Texas, but overlapping favorable surface winds/RH do not appear widespread enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Tuesday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions through the day. The primary surface low should be located over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, and it should develop northeastward into Ontario in tandem with the shortwave trough. A trailing cold front will sweep east-southeastward through the period across the OH/TN Valleys and parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast States... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across parts of central/southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. This activity is expected to continue moving eastward while gradually weakening through the morning, as it generally outpaces rich low-level moisture return and appreciable instability. Still, a narrow spatial/temporal window will probably exist for strong to locally damaging winds with the line, so long as it can remain near-surface-based. A brief tornado or two also appears possible focused along/near the coast, as 0-1-km SRH associated with the southern extent of a 40-60 kt low-level jet should be sufficient for updraft rotation. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. But, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper the development of any more than weak instability. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... Beneath a very strong (90-110 kt) mid-level jet and ahead of a surface cold front, low-topped convection may form relatively early in the day across eastern IL and western IN. Although low-level moisture is expected to remain rather limited with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, cold mid-level temperatures coupled with daytime heating should aid in the development of weak instability through Tuesday afternoon. Impressive low/mid-level winds veering with height will support strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Given the forecast strength of the low-level flow, isolated strong to severe winds appear to be the main threat. However, sufficient low-level shear to support some risk for a tornado or two should also be present. Given latest model trends regarding areas where weak destabilization seems probable, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include parts of eastern IL, and northward to encompass much of southern Lower MI. With the loss of daytime heating, convection should quickly weaken by Tuesday evening as it continues eastward into western OH. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Tuesday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions through the day. The primary surface low should be located over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, and it should develop northeastward into Ontario in tandem with the shortwave trough. A trailing cold front will sweep east-southeastward through the period across the OH/TN Valleys and parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast States... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across parts of central/southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. This activity is expected to continue moving eastward while gradually weakening through the morning, as it generally outpaces rich low-level moisture return and appreciable instability. Still, a narrow spatial/temporal window will probably exist for strong to locally damaging winds with the line, so long as it can remain near-surface-based. A brief tornado or two also appears possible focused along/near the coast, as 0-1-km SRH associated with the southern extent of a 40-60 kt low-level jet should be sufficient for updraft rotation. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. But, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper the development of any more than weak instability. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... Beneath a very strong (90-110 kt) mid-level jet and ahead of a surface cold front, low-topped convection may form relatively early in the day across eastern IL and western IN. Although low-level moisture is expected to remain rather limited with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, cold mid-level temperatures coupled with daytime heating should aid in the development of weak instability through Tuesday afternoon. Impressive low/mid-level winds veering with height will support strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Given the forecast strength of the low-level flow, isolated strong to severe winds appear to be the main threat. However, sufficient low-level shear to support some risk for a tornado or two should also be present. Given latest model trends regarding areas where weak destabilization seems probable, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include parts of eastern IL, and northward to encompass much of southern Lower MI. With the loss of daytime heating, convection should quickly weaken by Tuesday evening as it continues eastward into western OH. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Tuesday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions through the day. The primary surface low should be located over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, and it should develop northeastward into Ontario in tandem with the shortwave trough. A trailing cold front will sweep east-southeastward through the period across the OH/TN Valleys and parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast States... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across parts of central/southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. This activity is expected to continue moving eastward while gradually weakening through the morning, as it generally outpaces rich low-level moisture return and appreciable instability. Still, a narrow spatial/temporal window will probably exist for strong to locally damaging winds with the line, so long as it can remain near-surface-based. A brief tornado or two also appears possible focused along/near the coast, as 0-1-km SRH associated with the southern extent of a 40-60 kt low-level jet should be sufficient for updraft rotation. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. But, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper the development of any more than weak instability. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... Beneath a very strong (90-110 kt) mid-level jet and ahead of a surface cold front, low-topped convection may form relatively early in the day across eastern IL and western IN. Although low-level moisture is expected to remain rather limited with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, cold mid-level temperatures coupled with daytime heating should aid in the development of weak instability through Tuesday afternoon. Impressive low/mid-level winds veering with height will support strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Given the forecast strength of the low-level flow, isolated strong to severe winds appear to be the main threat. However, sufficient low-level shear to support some risk for a tornado or two should also be present. Given latest model trends regarding areas where weak destabilization seems probable, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include parts of eastern IL, and northward to encompass much of southern Lower MI. With the loss of daytime heating, convection should quickly weaken by Tuesday evening as it continues eastward into western OH. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Tuesday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions through the day. The primary surface low should be located over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, and it should develop northeastward into Ontario in tandem with the shortwave trough. A trailing cold front will sweep east-southeastward through the period across the OH/TN Valleys and parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast States... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across parts of central/southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. This activity is expected to continue moving eastward while gradually weakening through the morning, as it generally outpaces rich low-level moisture return and appreciable instability. Still, a narrow spatial/temporal window will probably exist for strong to locally damaging winds with the line, so long as it can remain near-surface-based. A brief tornado or two also appears possible focused along/near the coast, as 0-1-km SRH associated with the southern extent of a 40-60 kt low-level jet should be sufficient for updraft rotation. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. But, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper the development of any more than weak instability. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... Beneath a very strong (90-110 kt) mid-level jet and ahead of a surface cold front, low-topped convection may form relatively early in the day across eastern IL and western IN. Although low-level moisture is expected to remain rather limited with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, cold mid-level temperatures coupled with daytime heating should aid in the development of weak instability through Tuesday afternoon. Impressive low/mid-level winds veering with height will support strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Given the forecast strength of the low-level flow, isolated strong to severe winds appear to be the main threat. However, sufficient low-level shear to support some risk for a tornado or two should also be present. Given latest model trends regarding areas where weak destabilization seems probable, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include parts of eastern IL, and northward to encompass much of southern Lower MI. With the loss of daytime heating, convection should quickly weaken by Tuesday evening as it continues eastward into western OH. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Tuesday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions through the day. The primary surface low should be located over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, and it should develop northeastward into Ontario in tandem with the shortwave trough. A trailing cold front will sweep east-southeastward through the period across the OH/TN Valleys and parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast States... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across parts of central/southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. This activity is expected to continue moving eastward while gradually weakening through the morning, as it generally outpaces rich low-level moisture return and appreciable instability. Still, a narrow spatial/temporal window will probably exist for strong to locally damaging winds with the line, so long as it can remain near-surface-based. A brief tornado or two also appears possible focused along/near the coast, as 0-1-km SRH associated with the southern extent of a 40-60 kt low-level jet should be sufficient for updraft rotation. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. But, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper the development of any more than weak instability. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... Beneath a very strong (90-110 kt) mid-level jet and ahead of a surface cold front, low-topped convection may form relatively early in the day across eastern IL and western IN. Although low-level moisture is expected to remain rather limited with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, cold mid-level temperatures coupled with daytime heating should aid in the development of weak instability through Tuesday afternoon. Impressive low/mid-level winds veering with height will support strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Given the forecast strength of the low-level flow, isolated strong to severe winds appear to be the main threat. However, sufficient low-level shear to support some risk for a tornado or two should also be present. Given latest model trends regarding areas where weak destabilization seems probable, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include parts of eastern IL, and northward to encompass much of southern Lower MI. With the loss of daytime heating, convection should quickly weaken by Tuesday evening as it continues eastward into western OH. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Tuesday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions through the day. The primary surface low should be located over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, and it should develop northeastward into Ontario in tandem with the shortwave trough. A trailing cold front will sweep east-southeastward through the period across the OH/TN Valleys and parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast States... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across parts of central/southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. This activity is expected to continue moving eastward while gradually weakening through the morning, as it generally outpaces rich low-level moisture return and appreciable instability. Still, a narrow spatial/temporal window will probably exist for strong to locally damaging winds with the line, so long as it can remain near-surface-based. A brief tornado or two also appears possible focused along/near the coast, as 0-1-km SRH associated with the southern extent of a 40-60 kt low-level jet should be sufficient for updraft rotation. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. But, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper the development of any more than weak instability. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... Beneath a very strong (90-110 kt) mid-level jet and ahead of a surface cold front, low-topped convection may form relatively early in the day across eastern IL and western IN. Although low-level moisture is expected to remain rather limited with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, cold mid-level temperatures coupled with daytime heating should aid in the development of weak instability through Tuesday afternoon. Impressive low/mid-level winds veering with height will support strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Given the forecast strength of the low-level flow, isolated strong to severe winds appear to be the main threat. However, sufficient low-level shear to support some risk for a tornado or two should also be present. Given latest model trends regarding areas where weak destabilization seems probable, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include parts of eastern IL, and northward to encompass much of southern Lower MI. With the loss of daytime heating, convection should quickly weaken by Tuesday evening as it continues eastward into western OH. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2024 Read more