Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may arise across parts of southern AZ and within the coastal terrain of southern CA Sunday afternoon, but unreceptive fuels and limited spatial extent and duration of elevated conditions precludes the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, a similar weather pattern to Saturday will continue. Surface high pressure will be maintained across the West and Plains with some expansion into the Midwest and Southeast expected. Winds are expected to be lighter and RH will remain above critical thresholds for most areas. Fire weather concerns will remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may arise across parts of southern AZ and within the coastal terrain of southern CA Sunday afternoon, but unreceptive fuels and limited spatial extent and duration of elevated conditions precludes the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, a similar weather pattern to Saturday will continue. Surface high pressure will be maintained across the West and Plains with some expansion into the Midwest and Southeast expected. Winds are expected to be lighter and RH will remain above critical thresholds for most areas. Fire weather concerns will remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, moving mostly offshore by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure from the upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas will develop east/northeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to extend from eastern VA/NC south/southwest into northern FL and the Gulf of Mexico during the morning. This front will quickly move offshore the Carolinas and GA coasts while developing southward across the FL Peninsula. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the front Sunday morning. This activity will quickly move offshore in tandem with the front, posing little concern for severe thunderstorms. While the front will linger across FL where higher-quality boundary-layer moisture will be in place, poor lapse rates/warm mid-level temperatures and weakening large-scale ascent with time will limit severe potential. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, moving mostly offshore by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure from the upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas will develop east/northeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to extend from eastern VA/NC south/southwest into northern FL and the Gulf of Mexico during the morning. This front will quickly move offshore the Carolinas and GA coasts while developing southward across the FL Peninsula. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the front Sunday morning. This activity will quickly move offshore in tandem with the front, posing little concern for severe thunderstorms. While the front will linger across FL where higher-quality boundary-layer moisture will be in place, poor lapse rates/warm mid-level temperatures and weakening large-scale ascent with time will limit severe potential. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, moving mostly offshore by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure from the upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas will develop east/northeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to extend from eastern VA/NC south/southwest into northern FL and the Gulf of Mexico during the morning. This front will quickly move offshore the Carolinas and GA coasts while developing southward across the FL Peninsula. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the front Sunday morning. This activity will quickly move offshore in tandem with the front, posing little concern for severe thunderstorms. While the front will linger across FL where higher-quality boundary-layer moisture will be in place, poor lapse rates/warm mid-level temperatures and weakening large-scale ascent with time will limit severe potential. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, moving mostly offshore by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure from the upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas will develop east/northeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to extend from eastern VA/NC south/southwest into northern FL and the Gulf of Mexico during the morning. This front will quickly move offshore the Carolinas and GA coasts while developing southward across the FL Peninsula. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the front Sunday morning. This activity will quickly move offshore in tandem with the front, posing little concern for severe thunderstorms. While the front will linger across FL where higher-quality boundary-layer moisture will be in place, poor lapse rates/warm mid-level temperatures and weakening large-scale ascent with time will limit severe potential. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, moving mostly offshore by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure from the upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas will develop east/northeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to extend from eastern VA/NC south/southwest into northern FL and the Gulf of Mexico during the morning. This front will quickly move offshore the Carolinas and GA coasts while developing southward across the FL Peninsula. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the front Sunday morning. This activity will quickly move offshore in tandem with the front, posing little concern for severe thunderstorms. While the front will linger across FL where higher-quality boundary-layer moisture will be in place, poor lapse rates/warm mid-level temperatures and weakening large-scale ascent with time will limit severe potential. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, moving mostly offshore by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure from the upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas will develop east/northeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to extend from eastern VA/NC south/southwest into northern FL and the Gulf of Mexico during the morning. This front will quickly move offshore the Carolinas and GA coasts while developing southward across the FL Peninsula. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the front Sunday morning. This activity will quickly move offshore in tandem with the front, posing little concern for severe thunderstorms. While the front will linger across FL where higher-quality boundary-layer moisture will be in place, poor lapse rates/warm mid-level temperatures and weakening large-scale ascent with time will limit severe potential. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, moving mostly offshore by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure from the upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas will develop east/northeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to extend from eastern VA/NC south/southwest into northern FL and the Gulf of Mexico during the morning. This front will quickly move offshore the Carolinas and GA coasts while developing southward across the FL Peninsula. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the front Sunday morning. This activity will quickly move offshore in tandem with the front, posing little concern for severe thunderstorms. While the front will linger across FL where higher-quality boundary-layer moisture will be in place, poor lapse rates/warm mid-level temperatures and weakening large-scale ascent with time will limit severe potential. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, moving mostly offshore by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure from the upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas will develop east/northeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to extend from eastern VA/NC south/southwest into northern FL and the Gulf of Mexico during the morning. This front will quickly move offshore the Carolinas and GA coasts while developing southward across the FL Peninsula. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the front Sunday morning. This activity will quickly move offshore in tandem with the front, posing little concern for severe thunderstorms. While the front will linger across FL where higher-quality boundary-layer moisture will be in place, poor lapse rates/warm mid-level temperatures and weakening large-scale ascent with time will limit severe potential. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, moving mostly offshore by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure from the upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas will develop east/northeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to extend from eastern VA/NC south/southwest into northern FL and the Gulf of Mexico during the morning. This front will quickly move offshore the Carolinas and GA coasts while developing southward across the FL Peninsula. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the front Sunday morning. This activity will quickly move offshore in tandem with the front, posing little concern for severe thunderstorms. While the front will linger across FL where higher-quality boundary-layer moisture will be in place, poor lapse rates/warm mid-level temperatures and weakening large-scale ascent with time will limit severe potential. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, moving mostly offshore by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure from the upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas will develop east/northeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to extend from eastern VA/NC south/southwest into northern FL and the Gulf of Mexico during the morning. This front will quickly move offshore the Carolinas and GA coasts while developing southward across the FL Peninsula. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the front Sunday morning. This activity will quickly move offshore in tandem with the front, posing little concern for severe thunderstorms. While the front will linger across FL where higher-quality boundary-layer moisture will be in place, poor lapse rates/warm mid-level temperatures and weakening large-scale ascent with time will limit severe potential. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible this afternoon over parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible this afternoon over parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible this afternoon over parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible this afternoon over parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible this afternoon over parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible this afternoon over parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible this afternoon over parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible this afternoon over parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/27/2024 Read more