Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over parts of west Texas, and tonight near the central Gulf Coast and over Louisiana. Organized severe weather appears improbable. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain progressive over the CONUS this period, with a trough now over CO and NM being the main convective influence aloft. This perturbation will house an intermittently closed 500-mb low -- initially over east-central/ northeastern NM. That low should move roughly eastward across the southern High Plains today, reaching the Caprock Escarpment between LBB-CDS around 00Z, then moving roughly down the Red River Valley to near I-35 in southern OK or extreme north-central TX by 12Z tomorrow. By that time, the positively tilted trough should extend from there southwestward to northern Coahuila. At the surface, a broad, wavy baroclinic zone was analyzed across the northern Gulf, modulated on the mesoscale by convective boundaries. This feature should shift north but still remain mostly offshore through the period, except for some warm-frontal incursion into the MS/AL/western FL Panhandle region possible near the end of the period. This would occur southeast of frontal-wave low development over the northwest Gulf, offshore from the TX Coast, in response to the approaching mid/upper trough. The low should move northeastward close to a LCH-JAN track overnight, with a synoptic warm front/inverted trough northeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...West TX... An organized thunderstorm or two may move southeastward across the southern South Plains and/or northern Permian Basin regions of west TX this afternoon, with potential for strong gusts and/or hail approaching severe limits. Though surface temperatures will remain cool over this region today (50s to low 60s in general), cooling aloft with the approaching trough will steepen low/middle-level lapse rates enough to support isolated strong convection, amid 30-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Inflow-layer parcels may even become briefly surface-based, depending on cloud breaks and insolation duration locally, with MLCAPE in the 300-700 J/kg range possible along the southern rim of the cold-core region. Lack of more-substantial inflow-layer moisture/buoyancy should preclude an organized/areal severe threat. ...Gulf Coast States... Strong convection is evident over open Gulf waters south of LA, in IR satellite pictures, lightning data and imagery from distantly located radar(s), with an extensive area of downstream anvil material and precip from that also being shown in radar composites. This precip may be under-depicted in composites, given the unavailability of the closest (former Slidell) radar while it is being relocated westward. This convection, being surface-based over a well-modified and relatively high-theta-e boundary layer, is likely to remain both organized and over the Gulf through the day and into much of tonight. Meanwhile, a relatively stable boundary layer to its north should be maintained and reinforced by: 1. Its own continuing downshear precip plume, and 2. Additional, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms expected to form over east TX and LA from this afternoon through tonight, as elevated warm advection and moisture transport occur beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates overnight. Any sustained/discrete convection overnight in LA may produce hail with MUCAPE up to about 1500 J/kg and 40-50-kt effective-shear magnitude possible. However, with a lack of elevated MUCINH reasonably apparent in forecast soundings, storm mode may become clustered/messy fairly quickly. For now any severe-hail threat appears too conditional/isolated for probabilities. One area of interest for the last few hours of the period may be the coastal corridor around BIX-MOB-PNS, where theta-e advection may render surface-based parcels if earlier convection and related boundaries move away long enough beforehand. For now the predictability of such mesoscale processes remains too low to introduce unconditional severe probabilities, but this potential will be monitored through remaining outlook cycles. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over parts of west Texas, and tonight near the central Gulf Coast and over Louisiana. Organized severe weather appears improbable. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain progressive over the CONUS this period, with a trough now over CO and NM being the main convective influence aloft. This perturbation will house an intermittently closed 500-mb low -- initially over east-central/ northeastern NM. That low should move roughly eastward across the southern High Plains today, reaching the Caprock Escarpment between LBB-CDS around 00Z, then moving roughly down the Red River Valley to near I-35 in southern OK or extreme north-central TX by 12Z tomorrow. By that time, the positively tilted trough should extend from there southwestward to northern Coahuila. At the surface, a broad, wavy baroclinic zone was analyzed across the northern Gulf, modulated on the mesoscale by convective boundaries. This feature should shift north but still remain mostly offshore through the period, except for some warm-frontal incursion into the MS/AL/western FL Panhandle region possible near the end of the period. This would occur southeast of frontal-wave low development over the northwest Gulf, offshore from the TX Coast, in response to the approaching mid/upper trough. The low should move northeastward close to a LCH-JAN track overnight, with a synoptic warm front/inverted trough northeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...West TX... An organized thunderstorm or two may move southeastward across the southern South Plains and/or northern Permian Basin regions of west TX this afternoon, with potential for strong gusts and/or hail approaching severe limits. Though surface temperatures will remain cool over this region today (50s to low 60s in general), cooling aloft with the approaching trough will steepen low/middle-level lapse rates enough to support isolated strong convection, amid 30-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Inflow-layer parcels may even become briefly surface-based, depending on cloud breaks and insolation duration locally, with MLCAPE in the 300-700 J/kg range possible along the southern rim of the cold-core region. Lack of more-substantial inflow-layer moisture/buoyancy should preclude an organized/areal severe threat. ...Gulf Coast States... Strong convection is evident over open Gulf waters south of LA, in IR satellite pictures, lightning data and imagery from distantly located radar(s), with an extensive area of downstream anvil material and precip from that also being shown in radar composites. This precip may be under-depicted in composites, given the unavailability of the closest (former Slidell) radar while it is being relocated westward. This convection, being surface-based over a well-modified and relatively high-theta-e boundary layer, is likely to remain both organized and over the Gulf through the day and into much of tonight. Meanwhile, a relatively stable boundary layer to its north should be maintained and reinforced by: 1. Its own continuing downshear precip plume, and 2. Additional, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms expected to form over east TX and LA from this afternoon through tonight, as elevated warm advection and moisture transport occur beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates overnight. Any sustained/discrete convection overnight in LA may produce hail with MUCAPE up to about 1500 J/kg and 40-50-kt effective-shear magnitude possible. However, with a lack of elevated MUCINH reasonably apparent in forecast soundings, storm mode may become clustered/messy fairly quickly. For now any severe-hail threat appears too conditional/isolated for probabilities. One area of interest for the last few hours of the period may be the coastal corridor around BIX-MOB-PNS, where theta-e advection may render surface-based parcels if earlier convection and related boundaries move away long enough beforehand. For now the predictability of such mesoscale processes remains too low to introduce unconditional severe probabilities, but this potential will be monitored through remaining outlook cycles. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over parts of west Texas, and tonight near the central Gulf Coast and over Louisiana. Organized severe weather appears improbable. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain progressive over the CONUS this period, with a trough now over CO and NM being the main convective influence aloft. This perturbation will house an intermittently closed 500-mb low -- initially over east-central/ northeastern NM. That low should move roughly eastward across the southern High Plains today, reaching the Caprock Escarpment between LBB-CDS around 00Z, then moving roughly down the Red River Valley to near I-35 in southern OK or extreme north-central TX by 12Z tomorrow. By that time, the positively tilted trough should extend from there southwestward to northern Coahuila. At the surface, a broad, wavy baroclinic zone was analyzed across the northern Gulf, modulated on the mesoscale by convective boundaries. This feature should shift north but still remain mostly offshore through the period, except for some warm-frontal incursion into the MS/AL/western FL Panhandle region possible near the end of the period. This would occur southeast of frontal-wave low development over the northwest Gulf, offshore from the TX Coast, in response to the approaching mid/upper trough. The low should move northeastward close to a LCH-JAN track overnight, with a synoptic warm front/inverted trough northeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...West TX... An organized thunderstorm or two may move southeastward across the southern South Plains and/or northern Permian Basin regions of west TX this afternoon, with potential for strong gusts and/or hail approaching severe limits. Though surface temperatures will remain cool over this region today (50s to low 60s in general), cooling aloft with the approaching trough will steepen low/middle-level lapse rates enough to support isolated strong convection, amid 30-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Inflow-layer parcels may even become briefly surface-based, depending on cloud breaks and insolation duration locally, with MLCAPE in the 300-700 J/kg range possible along the southern rim of the cold-core region. Lack of more-substantial inflow-layer moisture/buoyancy should preclude an organized/areal severe threat. ...Gulf Coast States... Strong convection is evident over open Gulf waters south of LA, in IR satellite pictures, lightning data and imagery from distantly located radar(s), with an extensive area of downstream anvil material and precip from that also being shown in radar composites. This precip may be under-depicted in composites, given the unavailability of the closest (former Slidell) radar while it is being relocated westward. This convection, being surface-based over a well-modified and relatively high-theta-e boundary layer, is likely to remain both organized and over the Gulf through the day and into much of tonight. Meanwhile, a relatively stable boundary layer to its north should be maintained and reinforced by: 1. Its own continuing downshear precip plume, and 2. Additional, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms expected to form over east TX and LA from this afternoon through tonight, as elevated warm advection and moisture transport occur beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates overnight. Any sustained/discrete convection overnight in LA may produce hail with MUCAPE up to about 1500 J/kg and 40-50-kt effective-shear magnitude possible. However, with a lack of elevated MUCINH reasonably apparent in forecast soundings, storm mode may become clustered/messy fairly quickly. For now any severe-hail threat appears too conditional/isolated for probabilities. One area of interest for the last few hours of the period may be the coastal corridor around BIX-MOB-PNS, where theta-e advection may render surface-based parcels if earlier convection and related boundaries move away long enough beforehand. For now the predictability of such mesoscale processes remains too low to introduce unconditional severe probabilities, but this potential will be monitored through remaining outlook cycles. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/26/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a cold front exiting the South Atlantic coast on D3/Sunday, thunder potential appears minimal for several days as northwesterly low-level flow dominates across the Gulf. This regime will likely be further reinforced by a shortwave trough digging southeastward from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and eventually the Southeast mid-week. Above-average agreement exists among ensemble/deterministic 00Z guidance with this scenario. Towards late week, a full-latitude longwave trough is progged to reach the West Coast, with low-probability thunder potential along coastal CA. Lee cyclone development adjacent to the southern Rockies should support modified return flow over the western Gulf beginning around D7/Thursday. This should yield increasing thunder potential in the southern Great Plains by D8-D9/next Friday-Saturday, with the possibility of a positive-tilt shortwave trough ejecting across the Southwest. Although guidance spread does increase by this time frame, overall severe potential appears low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a cold front exiting the South Atlantic coast on D3/Sunday, thunder potential appears minimal for several days as northwesterly low-level flow dominates across the Gulf. This regime will likely be further reinforced by a shortwave trough digging southeastward from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and eventually the Southeast mid-week. Above-average agreement exists among ensemble/deterministic 00Z guidance with this scenario. Towards late week, a full-latitude longwave trough is progged to reach the West Coast, with low-probability thunder potential along coastal CA. Lee cyclone development adjacent to the southern Rockies should support modified return flow over the western Gulf beginning around D7/Thursday. This should yield increasing thunder potential in the southern Great Plains by D8-D9/next Friday-Saturday, with the possibility of a positive-tilt shortwave trough ejecting across the Southwest. Although guidance spread does increase by this time frame, overall severe potential appears low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a cold front exiting the South Atlantic coast on D3/Sunday, thunder potential appears minimal for several days as northwesterly low-level flow dominates across the Gulf. This regime will likely be further reinforced by a shortwave trough digging southeastward from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and eventually the Southeast mid-week. Above-average agreement exists among ensemble/deterministic 00Z guidance with this scenario. Towards late week, a full-latitude longwave trough is progged to reach the West Coast, with low-probability thunder potential along coastal CA. Lee cyclone development adjacent to the southern Rockies should support modified return flow over the western Gulf beginning around D7/Thursday. This should yield increasing thunder potential in the southern Great Plains by D8-D9/next Friday-Saturday, with the possibility of a positive-tilt shortwave trough ejecting across the Southwest. Although guidance spread does increase by this time frame, overall severe potential appears low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a cold front exiting the South Atlantic coast on D3/Sunday, thunder potential appears minimal for several days as northwesterly low-level flow dominates across the Gulf. This regime will likely be further reinforced by a shortwave trough digging southeastward from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and eventually the Southeast mid-week. Above-average agreement exists among ensemble/deterministic 00Z guidance with this scenario. Towards late week, a full-latitude longwave trough is progged to reach the West Coast, with low-probability thunder potential along coastal CA. Lee cyclone development adjacent to the southern Rockies should support modified return flow over the western Gulf beginning around D7/Thursday. This should yield increasing thunder potential in the southern Great Plains by D8-D9/next Friday-Saturday, with the possibility of a positive-tilt shortwave trough ejecting across the Southwest. Although guidance spread does increase by this time frame, overall severe potential appears low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a cold front exiting the South Atlantic coast on D3/Sunday, thunder potential appears minimal for several days as northwesterly low-level flow dominates across the Gulf. This regime will likely be further reinforced by a shortwave trough digging southeastward from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and eventually the Southeast mid-week. Above-average agreement exists among ensemble/deterministic 00Z guidance with this scenario. Towards late week, a full-latitude longwave trough is progged to reach the West Coast, with low-probability thunder potential along coastal CA. Lee cyclone development adjacent to the southern Rockies should support modified return flow over the western Gulf beginning around D7/Thursday. This should yield increasing thunder potential in the southern Great Plains by D8-D9/next Friday-Saturday, with the possibility of a positive-tilt shortwave trough ejecting across the Southwest. Although guidance spread does increase by this time frame, overall severe potential appears low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a cold front exiting the South Atlantic coast on D3/Sunday, thunder potential appears minimal for several days as northwesterly low-level flow dominates across the Gulf. This regime will likely be further reinforced by a shortwave trough digging southeastward from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and eventually the Southeast mid-week. Above-average agreement exists among ensemble/deterministic 00Z guidance with this scenario. Towards late week, a full-latitude longwave trough is progged to reach the West Coast, with low-probability thunder potential along coastal CA. Lee cyclone development adjacent to the southern Rockies should support modified return flow over the western Gulf beginning around D7/Thursday. This should yield increasing thunder potential in the southern Great Plains by D8-D9/next Friday-Saturday, with the possibility of a positive-tilt shortwave trough ejecting across the Southwest. Although guidance spread does increase by this time frame, overall severe potential appears low. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...South Atlantic States... Consensus of 00Z non-NAM guidance indicates a slightly faster ejection of an amplifying shortwave trough on Sunday across the central to southern Appalachians to the East Coast by Sunday night. A swath of scattered, non-severe convection should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from VA arcing south to southwest into parts of north to west-central FL, within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the surface cold front. The spatiotemporal window appears very limited for weak destabilization ahead of the front in the eastern NC vicinity, prior to low-level hodographs substantially shrinking as flow becomes veered. As such, severe storm potential appears too negligible to warrant probabilities at this cycle. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...South Atlantic States... Consensus of 00Z non-NAM guidance indicates a slightly faster ejection of an amplifying shortwave trough on Sunday across the central to southern Appalachians to the East Coast by Sunday night. A swath of scattered, non-severe convection should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from VA arcing south to southwest into parts of north to west-central FL, within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the surface cold front. The spatiotemporal window appears very limited for weak destabilization ahead of the front in the eastern NC vicinity, prior to low-level hodographs substantially shrinking as flow becomes veered. As such, severe storm potential appears too negligible to warrant probabilities at this cycle. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...South Atlantic States... Consensus of 00Z non-NAM guidance indicates a slightly faster ejection of an amplifying shortwave trough on Sunday across the central to southern Appalachians to the East Coast by Sunday night. A swath of scattered, non-severe convection should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from VA arcing south to southwest into parts of north to west-central FL, within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the surface cold front. The spatiotemporal window appears very limited for weak destabilization ahead of the front in the eastern NC vicinity, prior to low-level hodographs substantially shrinking as flow becomes veered. As such, severe storm potential appears too negligible to warrant probabilities at this cycle. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...South Atlantic States... Consensus of 00Z non-NAM guidance indicates a slightly faster ejection of an amplifying shortwave trough on Sunday across the central to southern Appalachians to the East Coast by Sunday night. A swath of scattered, non-severe convection should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from VA arcing south to southwest into parts of north to west-central FL, within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the surface cold front. The spatiotemporal window appears very limited for weak destabilization ahead of the front in the eastern NC vicinity, prior to low-level hodographs substantially shrinking as flow becomes veered. As such, severe storm potential appears too negligible to warrant probabilities at this cycle. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...South Atlantic States... Consensus of 00Z non-NAM guidance indicates a slightly faster ejection of an amplifying shortwave trough on Sunday across the central to southern Appalachians to the East Coast by Sunday night. A swath of scattered, non-severe convection should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from VA arcing south to southwest into parts of north to west-central FL, within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the surface cold front. The spatiotemporal window appears very limited for weak destabilization ahead of the front in the eastern NC vicinity, prior to low-level hodographs substantially shrinking as flow becomes veered. As such, severe storm potential appears too negligible to warrant probabilities at this cycle. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...South Atlantic States... Consensus of 00Z non-NAM guidance indicates a slightly faster ejection of an amplifying shortwave trough on Sunday across the central to southern Appalachians to the East Coast by Sunday night. A swath of scattered, non-severe convection should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from VA arcing south to southwest into parts of north to west-central FL, within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the surface cold front. The spatiotemporal window appears very limited for weak destabilization ahead of the front in the eastern NC vicinity, prior to low-level hodographs substantially shrinking as flow becomes veered. As such, severe storm potential appears too negligible to warrant probabilities at this cycle. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South. ...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South... Below-average confidence exists with the most likely outcome for the degree of severe storm coverage on Saturday, with two conditional scenarios evident across the region. Initially, a swath of warm-conveyor-driven convection is expected to be ongoing at 12Z from the northwest Gulf through MS and west AL, downstream of shortwave trough near the Ark-La-Tex. Richer surface dew points will attempt to spread inland, mainly in the central Gulf Coast vicinity, but further inland destabilization will be limited by extensive cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates. Thus, an increase in convective intensity is possible near the immediate Gulf Coast where low-level hodographs will be sufficiently enlarged. A few embedded supercell/mesovortex structures are possible as this convection spreads into south AL and the western FL Panhandle. A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds would be most probable from mid-morning into early afternoon. Most CAM guidance suggests this early period activity should wane later in the afternoon as forcing for ascent weakens. Low-level warm advection/placement of the jet should shift north away from the coast as destabilization struggles with eastward extent. In its wake, an intrusion of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (beneath weak upper-level lapse rates) should accompany the shortwave trough moving east across the Mid-South. This will likely aid in afternoon destabilization towards the TN Valley. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization, ahead of the weakly cyclogenetic surface low expected to evolve from the Ark-La-Miss to eastern TN. But there are indications that cloud breaks may occur from southeast MS into parts of west AL beneath the mid-level dry slot, which may yield a confined plume of weak surface-based instability. Conditionally, a moderately enlarged low-level hodograph below a rather elongated mid to upper hodograph would favor the possibility of a few low-topped, discrete supercells, before low-level winds become increasingly veered near the impinging cold front. This appears focused on the central to north AL vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening. Should adequate destabilization occur at peak heating, a couple tornadoes will be possible before convection tends to subside after dusk and with eastern extent into GA. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South. ...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South... Below-average confidence exists with the most likely outcome for the degree of severe storm coverage on Saturday, with two conditional scenarios evident across the region. Initially, a swath of warm-conveyor-driven convection is expected to be ongoing at 12Z from the northwest Gulf through MS and west AL, downstream of shortwave trough near the Ark-La-Tex. Richer surface dew points will attempt to spread inland, mainly in the central Gulf Coast vicinity, but further inland destabilization will be limited by extensive cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates. Thus, an increase in convective intensity is possible near the immediate Gulf Coast where low-level hodographs will be sufficiently enlarged. A few embedded supercell/mesovortex structures are possible as this convection spreads into south AL and the western FL Panhandle. A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds would be most probable from mid-morning into early afternoon. Most CAM guidance suggests this early period activity should wane later in the afternoon as forcing for ascent weakens. Low-level warm advection/placement of the jet should shift north away from the coast as destabilization struggles with eastward extent. In its wake, an intrusion of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (beneath weak upper-level lapse rates) should accompany the shortwave trough moving east across the Mid-South. This will likely aid in afternoon destabilization towards the TN Valley. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization, ahead of the weakly cyclogenetic surface low expected to evolve from the Ark-La-Miss to eastern TN. But there are indications that cloud breaks may occur from southeast MS into parts of west AL beneath the mid-level dry slot, which may yield a confined plume of weak surface-based instability. Conditionally, a moderately enlarged low-level hodograph below a rather elongated mid to upper hodograph would favor the possibility of a few low-topped, discrete supercells, before low-level winds become increasingly veered near the impinging cold front. This appears focused on the central to north AL vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening. Should adequate destabilization occur at peak heating, a couple tornadoes will be possible before convection tends to subside after dusk and with eastern extent into GA. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South. ...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South... Below-average confidence exists with the most likely outcome for the degree of severe storm coverage on Saturday, with two conditional scenarios evident across the region. Initially, a swath of warm-conveyor-driven convection is expected to be ongoing at 12Z from the northwest Gulf through MS and west AL, downstream of shortwave trough near the Ark-La-Tex. Richer surface dew points will attempt to spread inland, mainly in the central Gulf Coast vicinity, but further inland destabilization will be limited by extensive cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates. Thus, an increase in convective intensity is possible near the immediate Gulf Coast where low-level hodographs will be sufficiently enlarged. A few embedded supercell/mesovortex structures are possible as this convection spreads into south AL and the western FL Panhandle. A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds would be most probable from mid-morning into early afternoon. Most CAM guidance suggests this early period activity should wane later in the afternoon as forcing for ascent weakens. Low-level warm advection/placement of the jet should shift north away from the coast as destabilization struggles with eastward extent. In its wake, an intrusion of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (beneath weak upper-level lapse rates) should accompany the shortwave trough moving east across the Mid-South. This will likely aid in afternoon destabilization towards the TN Valley. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization, ahead of the weakly cyclogenetic surface low expected to evolve from the Ark-La-Miss to eastern TN. But there are indications that cloud breaks may occur from southeast MS into parts of west AL beneath the mid-level dry slot, which may yield a confined plume of weak surface-based instability. Conditionally, a moderately enlarged low-level hodograph below a rather elongated mid to upper hodograph would favor the possibility of a few low-topped, discrete supercells, before low-level winds become increasingly veered near the impinging cold front. This appears focused on the central to north AL vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening. Should adequate destabilization occur at peak heating, a couple tornadoes will be possible before convection tends to subside after dusk and with eastern extent into GA. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South. ...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South... Below-average confidence exists with the most likely outcome for the degree of severe storm coverage on Saturday, with two conditional scenarios evident across the region. Initially, a swath of warm-conveyor-driven convection is expected to be ongoing at 12Z from the northwest Gulf through MS and west AL, downstream of shortwave trough near the Ark-La-Tex. Richer surface dew points will attempt to spread inland, mainly in the central Gulf Coast vicinity, but further inland destabilization will be limited by extensive cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates. Thus, an increase in convective intensity is possible near the immediate Gulf Coast where low-level hodographs will be sufficiently enlarged. A few embedded supercell/mesovortex structures are possible as this convection spreads into south AL and the western FL Panhandle. A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds would be most probable from mid-morning into early afternoon. Most CAM guidance suggests this early period activity should wane later in the afternoon as forcing for ascent weakens. Low-level warm advection/placement of the jet should shift north away from the coast as destabilization struggles with eastward extent. In its wake, an intrusion of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (beneath weak upper-level lapse rates) should accompany the shortwave trough moving east across the Mid-South. This will likely aid in afternoon destabilization towards the TN Valley. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization, ahead of the weakly cyclogenetic surface low expected to evolve from the Ark-La-Miss to eastern TN. But there are indications that cloud breaks may occur from southeast MS into parts of west AL beneath the mid-level dry slot, which may yield a confined plume of weak surface-based instability. Conditionally, a moderately enlarged low-level hodograph below a rather elongated mid to upper hodograph would favor the possibility of a few low-topped, discrete supercells, before low-level winds become increasingly veered near the impinging cold front. This appears focused on the central to north AL vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening. Should adequate destabilization occur at peak heating, a couple tornadoes will be possible before convection tends to subside after dusk and with eastern extent into GA. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South. ...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South... Below-average confidence exists with the most likely outcome for the degree of severe storm coverage on Saturday, with two conditional scenarios evident across the region. Initially, a swath of warm-conveyor-driven convection is expected to be ongoing at 12Z from the northwest Gulf through MS and west AL, downstream of shortwave trough near the Ark-La-Tex. Richer surface dew points will attempt to spread inland, mainly in the central Gulf Coast vicinity, but further inland destabilization will be limited by extensive cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates. Thus, an increase in convective intensity is possible near the immediate Gulf Coast where low-level hodographs will be sufficiently enlarged. A few embedded supercell/mesovortex structures are possible as this convection spreads into south AL and the western FL Panhandle. A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds would be most probable from mid-morning into early afternoon. Most CAM guidance suggests this early period activity should wane later in the afternoon as forcing for ascent weakens. Low-level warm advection/placement of the jet should shift north away from the coast as destabilization struggles with eastward extent. In its wake, an intrusion of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (beneath weak upper-level lapse rates) should accompany the shortwave trough moving east across the Mid-South. This will likely aid in afternoon destabilization towards the TN Valley. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization, ahead of the weakly cyclogenetic surface low expected to evolve from the Ark-La-Miss to eastern TN. But there are indications that cloud breaks may occur from southeast MS into parts of west AL beneath the mid-level dry slot, which may yield a confined plume of weak surface-based instability. Conditionally, a moderately enlarged low-level hodograph below a rather elongated mid to upper hodograph would favor the possibility of a few low-topped, discrete supercells, before low-level winds become increasingly veered near the impinging cold front. This appears focused on the central to north AL vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening. Should adequate destabilization occur at peak heating, a couple tornadoes will be possible before convection tends to subside after dusk and with eastern extent into GA. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more