Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0089 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0089 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Areas affected...Northern Vermont...Northern New Hampshire...portions of Western and Central Maine Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 250100Z - 250500Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain accumulations around 0.01-0.03 per per hour likely through the evening. DISCUSSION...Freezing rain accumulations of 0.01-0.03" have been reported across upstate New York over the last hour, with freezing rain being reported at several stations across portions of Vermont and New Hampshire. This threat will likely shift eastward into western Maine over the next few hours. The observed 00z sounding from GYX shows the profile is largely below zero from the surface to just above 850 mb. Strong warm air advection is ongoing in low to mid-level west to southwesterly flow from 850-500 mb. This is further supported in RAP forecast soundings indicating warming above the surface should support the downstream threat of freezing rain as the heavier precipitation arrives northeastward. Areas across the higher terrain of the White Mountains will likely see snow, with the best potential for freezing rain accumulations located across the lower valleys. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... LAT...LON 43817003 43587019 43477042 43487067 43537097 43587201 43847258 44187284 44497289 44827252 44937205 44927195 44927117 45047025 45116990 45146953 44976935 44696931 44516935 44256962 43817003 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from South Texas to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Southern TX to the northern Gulf Coast... A front currently stretches from near Brownsville TX northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and into southeast LA. Notably weak southerly flow will persist south of and near this front as an upper trough moves across TX. Overall advection of moisture and instability is forecast to remain minimal, but some recovery is possible over parts of southern LA and coastal MS/AL late tonight. The air mass near this front may support surface-based convection, although effective SRH will remain marginal for supercell or tornado threat. For near-term information, see mesoscale discussion 88. To the west, cooling aloft and lift with the upper trough may interact with elevated instability rooted above 850 mb to support marginally severe hail over parts of southern and southeastern TX tonight, supported by long hodographs. Storms are expected to for near the Rio Grande Valley late this evening, and spread rapidly eastward toward the Sabine Valley by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from South Texas to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Southern TX to the northern Gulf Coast... A front currently stretches from near Brownsville TX northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and into southeast LA. Notably weak southerly flow will persist south of and near this front as an upper trough moves across TX. Overall advection of moisture and instability is forecast to remain minimal, but some recovery is possible over parts of southern LA and coastal MS/AL late tonight. The air mass near this front may support surface-based convection, although effective SRH will remain marginal for supercell or tornado threat. For near-term information, see mesoscale discussion 88. To the west, cooling aloft and lift with the upper trough may interact with elevated instability rooted above 850 mb to support marginally severe hail over parts of southern and southeastern TX tonight, supported by long hodographs. Storms are expected to for near the Rio Grande Valley late this evening, and spread rapidly eastward toward the Sabine Valley by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from South Texas to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Southern TX to the northern Gulf Coast... A front currently stretches from near Brownsville TX northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and into southeast LA. Notably weak southerly flow will persist south of and near this front as an upper trough moves across TX. Overall advection of moisture and instability is forecast to remain minimal, but some recovery is possible over parts of southern LA and coastal MS/AL late tonight. The air mass near this front may support surface-based convection, although effective SRH will remain marginal for supercell or tornado threat. For near-term information, see mesoscale discussion 88. To the west, cooling aloft and lift with the upper trough may interact with elevated instability rooted above 850 mb to support marginally severe hail over parts of southern and southeastern TX tonight, supported by long hodographs. Storms are expected to for near the Rio Grande Valley late this evening, and spread rapidly eastward toward the Sabine Valley by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from South Texas to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Southern TX to the northern Gulf Coast... A front currently stretches from near Brownsville TX northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and into southeast LA. Notably weak southerly flow will persist south of and near this front as an upper trough moves across TX. Overall advection of moisture and instability is forecast to remain minimal, but some recovery is possible over parts of southern LA and coastal MS/AL late tonight. The air mass near this front may support surface-based convection, although effective SRH will remain marginal for supercell or tornado threat. For near-term information, see mesoscale discussion 88. To the west, cooling aloft and lift with the upper trough may interact with elevated instability rooted above 850 mb to support marginally severe hail over parts of southern and southeastern TX tonight, supported by long hodographs. Storms are expected to for near the Rio Grande Valley late this evening, and spread rapidly eastward toward the Sabine Valley by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moist fuels are present across the entire CONUS presently. The majority of the CONUS will experience either cold weather or additional wetting rain. Some drying may occur across far West Texas into the Permian Basin. However, an extended period of dry weather will be needed for fuels to dry sufficiently for an increasing fire weather threat. ..Bentley.. 01/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 24 00:58:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 24 00:58:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from parts of south/southeast Texas into Louisiana. ...South/Southeast Texas into Louisiana... Ahead of an upper trough over the Southwest, a broad area of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist over parts of TX into the lower MS Valley tonight. A surface front is draped southwest to northeast across this region as well, with generally mid to upper 60s present to its south. Ongoing convection along/near this boundary will probably tend to remain slightly elevated given poor low-level lapse rates and lingering boundary-layer inhibition. Still, strong deep-layer shear should aid in convective organization, with some chance for isolated hail and strong/gusty winds with the more robust updrafts. A brief tornado will also remain possible with any surface-based convection, as sufficient shear associated with a modestly enhanced southerly low-level jet migrates across southeast/coastal TX into southern LA tonight into early Wednesday morning. Greater low-level moisture exists across parts of south TX ahead of the front. 00Z soundings from CRP and BRO show steep mid-level lapse rates present atop a pronounced cap between 850 and 700 mb. It remains unclear whether thunderstorms will be able to develop across parts of northeast Mexico and be sustained into south TX later tonight. If this convection occurs, deep-layer shear of 50-55 kt will easily support supercell structures, with an associated threat for large hail and damaging winds. Even so, large-scale ascent across this region appears nebulous at best, suggesting that the overall severe threat should tend to remain isolated. ..Gleason.. 01/24/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 23 22:46:02 UTC 2024.