Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible through early Saturday morning from the lower Sabine Valley into southwest Mississippi. ...Sabine Valley across LA and into southern MS... Scattered elevated storms persist this evening within the low-level warm air advection regime, with the primary surface boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Several cells have had indications of hail, with elevated CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. As the upper trough moves across TX and toward the lower MS Valley tonight, large-scale ascent will increase with additional storms likely over much of LA into southern MS. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer may remain relatively cool and saturated, which may tend to limit the northward extent of any isolated tornado risk. As such, the greatest risk of a supercell and tornado will conditionally be over southern LA and far southern MS in closer proximity to better surface-based potential. Otherwise, cells may continue to produce marginally severe hail at times through tonight. ..Jewell.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible through early Saturday morning from the lower Sabine Valley into southwest Mississippi. ...Sabine Valley across LA and into southern MS... Scattered elevated storms persist this evening within the low-level warm air advection regime, with the primary surface boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Several cells have had indications of hail, with elevated CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. As the upper trough moves across TX and toward the lower MS Valley tonight, large-scale ascent will increase with additional storms likely over much of LA into southern MS. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer may remain relatively cool and saturated, which may tend to limit the northward extent of any isolated tornado risk. As such, the greatest risk of a supercell and tornado will conditionally be over southern LA and far southern MS in closer proximity to better surface-based potential. Otherwise, cells may continue to produce marginally severe hail at times through tonight. ..Jewell.. 01/27/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 26 23:04:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 26 23:04:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential appears limited for the extended period. A high-amplitude upper ridge currently in place along the West Coast will slowly migrate east over the next several days as the upper wave currently over the southern Plains drifts east/northeast. This synoptic regime will favor persistent rain/snow chances along the West Coast, but dry conditions across much of the interior U.S. - especially over the Plains where some locations have seen limited rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. Some fuel drying is probable, and appears most likely to occur across the central/northern High Plains where the winter snow pack is somewhat patchy and temperatures are forecast to be well above average for late January. However, the presence of the upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients, limiting the potential for strong winds. Precipitation chances should return to the central U.S. by the end of the upcoming work week/next weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in this scenario, suggesting low potential for critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential appears limited for the extended period. A high-amplitude upper ridge currently in place along the West Coast will slowly migrate east over the next several days as the upper wave currently over the southern Plains drifts east/northeast. This synoptic regime will favor persistent rain/snow chances along the West Coast, but dry conditions across much of the interior U.S. - especially over the Plains where some locations have seen limited rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. Some fuel drying is probable, and appears most likely to occur across the central/northern High Plains where the winter snow pack is somewhat patchy and temperatures are forecast to be well above average for late January. However, the presence of the upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients, limiting the potential for strong winds. Precipitation chances should return to the central U.S. by the end of the upcoming work week/next weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in this scenario, suggesting low potential for critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential appears limited for the extended period. A high-amplitude upper ridge currently in place along the West Coast will slowly migrate east over the next several days as the upper wave currently over the southern Plains drifts east/northeast. This synoptic regime will favor persistent rain/snow chances along the West Coast, but dry conditions across much of the interior U.S. - especially over the Plains where some locations have seen limited rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. Some fuel drying is probable, and appears most likely to occur across the central/northern High Plains where the winter snow pack is somewhat patchy and temperatures are forecast to be well above average for late January. However, the presence of the upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients, limiting the potential for strong winds. Precipitation chances should return to the central U.S. by the end of the upcoming work week/next weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in this scenario, suggesting low potential for critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential appears limited for the extended period. A high-amplitude upper ridge currently in place along the West Coast will slowly migrate east over the next several days as the upper wave currently over the southern Plains drifts east/northeast. This synoptic regime will favor persistent rain/snow chances along the West Coast, but dry conditions across much of the interior U.S. - especially over the Plains where some locations have seen limited rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. Some fuel drying is probable, and appears most likely to occur across the central/northern High Plains where the winter snow pack is somewhat patchy and temperatures are forecast to be well above average for late January. However, the presence of the upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients, limiting the potential for strong winds. Precipitation chances should return to the central U.S. by the end of the upcoming work week/next weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in this scenario, suggesting low potential for critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential appears limited for the extended period. A high-amplitude upper ridge currently in place along the West Coast will slowly migrate east over the next several days as the upper wave currently over the southern Plains drifts east/northeast. This synoptic regime will favor persistent rain/snow chances along the West Coast, but dry conditions across much of the interior U.S. - especially over the Plains where some locations have seen limited rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. Some fuel drying is probable, and appears most likely to occur across the central/northern High Plains where the winter snow pack is somewhat patchy and temperatures are forecast to be well above average for late January. However, the presence of the upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients, limiting the potential for strong winds. Precipitation chances should return to the central U.S. by the end of the upcoming work week/next weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in this scenario, suggesting low potential for critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRE-DAWN SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning over parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northeastward based on the latest short-term guidance, but otherwise no major changes have been made. A line of storms is expected to develop across parts of LA overnight and spread eastward, with some threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Southeast states today... Recent radar and satellite imagery shows multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring over the central Gulf of Mexico. This activity will continue through the day, with only weak forcing and minimal destabilization occurring inland across the Gulf coast states and Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in this area, but coverage is expected to be quite limited. ...LA/MS early Saturday morning... Later in the forecast period, strong low-level cyclogenesis is forecast across the Arklatex region as the primary upper trough approaches from the west. Strengthening low-level wind fields will enhance warm advection and lift, resulting in scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Morning model guidance suggests the potential for the intensification/organization of a line of convection along the strengthening cold front over LA/MS after 09z. Forecast soundings indicate near-surface-based convection and strong vertical shear profiles - posing some risk of gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado after 09z. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area to cover this scenario. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRE-DAWN SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning over parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northeastward based on the latest short-term guidance, but otherwise no major changes have been made. A line of storms is expected to develop across parts of LA overnight and spread eastward, with some threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Southeast states today... Recent radar and satellite imagery shows multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring over the central Gulf of Mexico. This activity will continue through the day, with only weak forcing and minimal destabilization occurring inland across the Gulf coast states and Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in this area, but coverage is expected to be quite limited. ...LA/MS early Saturday morning... Later in the forecast period, strong low-level cyclogenesis is forecast across the Arklatex region as the primary upper trough approaches from the west. Strengthening low-level wind fields will enhance warm advection and lift, resulting in scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Morning model guidance suggests the potential for the intensification/organization of a line of convection along the strengthening cold front over LA/MS after 09z. Forecast soundings indicate near-surface-based convection and strong vertical shear profiles - posing some risk of gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado after 09z. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area to cover this scenario. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRE-DAWN SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning over parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northeastward based on the latest short-term guidance, but otherwise no major changes have been made. A line of storms is expected to develop across parts of LA overnight and spread eastward, with some threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Southeast states today... Recent radar and satellite imagery shows multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring over the central Gulf of Mexico. This activity will continue through the day, with only weak forcing and minimal destabilization occurring inland across the Gulf coast states and Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in this area, but coverage is expected to be quite limited. ...LA/MS early Saturday morning... Later in the forecast period, strong low-level cyclogenesis is forecast across the Arklatex region as the primary upper trough approaches from the west. Strengthening low-level wind fields will enhance warm advection and lift, resulting in scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Morning model guidance suggests the potential for the intensification/organization of a line of convection along the strengthening cold front over LA/MS after 09z. Forecast soundings indicate near-surface-based convection and strong vertical shear profiles - posing some risk of gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado after 09z. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area to cover this scenario. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRE-DAWN SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning over parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northeastward based on the latest short-term guidance, but otherwise no major changes have been made. A line of storms is expected to develop across parts of LA overnight and spread eastward, with some threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Southeast states today... Recent radar and satellite imagery shows multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring over the central Gulf of Mexico. This activity will continue through the day, with only weak forcing and minimal destabilization occurring inland across the Gulf coast states and Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in this area, but coverage is expected to be quite limited. ...LA/MS early Saturday morning... Later in the forecast period, strong low-level cyclogenesis is forecast across the Arklatex region as the primary upper trough approaches from the west. Strengthening low-level wind fields will enhance warm advection and lift, resulting in scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Morning model guidance suggests the potential for the intensification/organization of a line of convection along the strengthening cold front over LA/MS after 09z. Forecast soundings indicate near-surface-based convection and strong vertical shear profiles - posing some risk of gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado after 09z. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area to cover this scenario. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRE-DAWN SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning over parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northeastward based on the latest short-term guidance, but otherwise no major changes have been made. A line of storms is expected to develop across parts of LA overnight and spread eastward, with some threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Southeast states today... Recent radar and satellite imagery shows multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring over the central Gulf of Mexico. This activity will continue through the day, with only weak forcing and minimal destabilization occurring inland across the Gulf coast states and Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in this area, but coverage is expected to be quite limited. ...LA/MS early Saturday morning... Later in the forecast period, strong low-level cyclogenesis is forecast across the Arklatex region as the primary upper trough approaches from the west. Strengthening low-level wind fields will enhance warm advection and lift, resulting in scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Morning model guidance suggests the potential for the intensification/organization of a line of convection along the strengthening cold front over LA/MS after 09z. Forecast soundings indicate near-surface-based convection and strong vertical shear profiles - posing some risk of gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado after 09z. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area to cover this scenario. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed. Fire weather concerns continue to appear limited for Saturday across the country. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed. Fire weather concerns continue to appear limited for Saturday across the country. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed. Fire weather concerns continue to appear limited for Saturday across the country. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed. Fire weather concerns continue to appear limited for Saturday across the country. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed. Fire weather concerns continue to appear limited for Saturday across the country. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South into parts of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from eastern portions of the southern Great Plains into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys on Saturday. In conjunction with this shortwave, a surface low is forecast to gradually deepen as it moves from southern MS toward the southern Appalachians. ...Parts of the Southeast... Confidence remains relatively low regarding convective evolution across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas on Saturday, though some threat for locally damaging wind and a few tornadoes remains evident, especially from the central Gulf Coast into parts of the TN Valley. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing Saturday morning from near the LA Gulf Coast into parts of MS/AL, within the warm conveyor region of the developing cyclone. Rich low-level moisture and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support organized convection, with some morning threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado or two from southeast LA into southern MS/AL and eventually the FL Panhandle. This initial band of convection may reach southwest GA by early afternoon with an isolated severe threat, before weakening as large-scale ascent becomes displaced to the north. In the wake of morning convection, some low-level moistening is expected across much of AL into far southern TN, in advance of a cold front that will be moving eastward in conjunction with the surface low. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, resulting in the potential for MLCAPE to increase to at least 500 J/kg range, though the magnitude of destabilization will depend on the extent of heating/moistening in the wake of morning convection, which remains uncertain at this time. If robust convection can evolve and be sustained, a few relatively low-topped supercells may evolve with time along/ahead of the cold front and spread eastward with a threat of a couple tornadoes, isolated damaging wind, and small to perhaps marginally severe hail. Some severe threat could reach as far east as the Carolina Piedmont region Saturday night, as convection spreads eastward along the effective warm-frontal zone in conjunction with the surface low. ..Dean.. 01/26/2024 Read more