Severe Storms

WW 59 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 241950Z - 250200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 59 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Central Kansas Western Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a dryline over the Texas Panhandle. These storms will spread eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 80 miles north northeast of Dodge City KS to 80 miles south southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0297 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59... FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0297 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma...North Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59... Valid 242346Z - 250145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts and potential for a brief tornado will likely continue for a couple more hours. As this storms moves to the east of WW 59, a local extension in area may be needed across parts of the area. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a trough extending southward across west Texas, with a dryline to the east of the trough. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline in northwest Texas, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 50s F and MLCAPE is estimated in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. The Frederick WSR-88D VWP currently has 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and veering winds with height in the lowest 1 km. This, along with strong large-scale ascent associated with an approaching shortwave trough, will support a threat for supercells and large hail. Wind damage will also be possible. In addition, low-level shear appears sufficient for a tornado threat, but any threat should remain isolated and brief. As the storm in eastern Wichita County near the Red River moves further east into the weaker instability, a downtrend is eventually expected to occur. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34699742 34629787 34389836 33959866 33519865 33189838 33089792 33119749 33249715 33469683 33829667 34179665 34569692 34699742 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... An instance of large hail, a damaging wind gust, or perhaps a tornado, remain possible this evening, particularly in central or northern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak is overspreading the southern Plains, supporting the continued eastward progression of a dryline pendant from a strong surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Multiple clusters of storms are in progress across the central and southern Plains ahead of the dryline. However, the ongoing storms (north of the Red River) are outpacing the buoyancy axis that is roughly oriented along and to the west of the I-35 corridor. Given strong vertical wind shear north of the Red River, Category 1/Marginal risk-based probabilities have been maintained. An instance or two of damaging gusts, large hail, or maybe a tornado could still occur for any storm that can manage to ingest surface-based, unstable parcels before weakening over the next couple of hours. Farther south, storms along and to the south of the Red River are more robust, with supercell structures observed on regional/MRMS mosaic radar imagery. Mid 50s surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates support 500+ J/kg SBCAPE. Despite marginal buoyancy, 30+ kt 850 mb flow beneath the 60+ kt westerly jet streak support curved and elongated hodographs. As such, supercells and linear segments are expected to continue developing down toward the Edwards Plateau and should persist eastward through tonight with a large hail/damaging gust threat. Given strong low-level shear, a tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... An instance of large hail, a damaging wind gust, or perhaps a tornado, remain possible this evening, particularly in central or northern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak is overspreading the southern Plains, supporting the continued eastward progression of a dryline pendant from a strong surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Multiple clusters of storms are in progress across the central and southern Plains ahead of the dryline. However, the ongoing storms (north of the Red River) are outpacing the buoyancy axis that is roughly oriented along and to the west of the I-35 corridor. Given strong vertical wind shear north of the Red River, Category 1/Marginal risk-based probabilities have been maintained. An instance or two of damaging gusts, large hail, or maybe a tornado could still occur for any storm that can manage to ingest surface-based, unstable parcels before weakening over the next couple of hours. Farther south, storms along and to the south of the Red River are more robust, with supercell structures observed on regional/MRMS mosaic radar imagery. Mid 50s surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates support 500+ J/kg SBCAPE. Despite marginal buoyancy, 30+ kt 850 mb flow beneath the 60+ kt westerly jet streak support curved and elongated hodographs. As such, supercells and linear segments are expected to continue developing down toward the Edwards Plateau and should persist eastward through tonight with a large hail/damaging gust threat. Given strong low-level shear, a tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... An instance of large hail, a damaging wind gust, or perhaps a tornado, remain possible this evening, particularly in central or northern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak is overspreading the southern Plains, supporting the continued eastward progression of a dryline pendant from a strong surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Multiple clusters of storms are in progress across the central and southern Plains ahead of the dryline. However, the ongoing storms (north of the Red River) are outpacing the buoyancy axis that is roughly oriented along and to the west of the I-35 corridor. Given strong vertical wind shear north of the Red River, Category 1/Marginal risk-based probabilities have been maintained. An instance or two of damaging gusts, large hail, or maybe a tornado could still occur for any storm that can manage to ingest surface-based, unstable parcels before weakening over the next couple of hours. Farther south, storms along and to the south of the Red River are more robust, with supercell structures observed on regional/MRMS mosaic radar imagery. Mid 50s surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates support 500+ J/kg SBCAPE. Despite marginal buoyancy, 30+ kt 850 mb flow beneath the 60+ kt westerly jet streak support curved and elongated hodographs. As such, supercells and linear segments are expected to continue developing down toward the Edwards Plateau and should persist eastward through tonight with a large hail/damaging gust threat. Given strong low-level shear, a tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... An instance of large hail, a damaging wind gust, or perhaps a tornado, remain possible this evening, particularly in central or northern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak is overspreading the southern Plains, supporting the continued eastward progression of a dryline pendant from a strong surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Multiple clusters of storms are in progress across the central and southern Plains ahead of the dryline. However, the ongoing storms (north of the Red River) are outpacing the buoyancy axis that is roughly oriented along and to the west of the I-35 corridor. Given strong vertical wind shear north of the Red River, Category 1/Marginal risk-based probabilities have been maintained. An instance or two of damaging gusts, large hail, or maybe a tornado could still occur for any storm that can manage to ingest surface-based, unstable parcels before weakening over the next couple of hours. Farther south, storms along and to the south of the Red River are more robust, with supercell structures observed on regional/MRMS mosaic radar imagery. Mid 50s surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates support 500+ J/kg SBCAPE. Despite marginal buoyancy, 30+ kt 850 mb flow beneath the 60+ kt westerly jet streak support curved and elongated hodographs. As such, supercells and linear segments are expected to continue developing down toward the Edwards Plateau and should persist eastward through tonight with a large hail/damaging gust threat. Given strong low-level shear, a tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... An instance of large hail, a damaging wind gust, or perhaps a tornado, remain possible this evening, particularly in central or northern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak is overspreading the southern Plains, supporting the continued eastward progression of a dryline pendant from a strong surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Multiple clusters of storms are in progress across the central and southern Plains ahead of the dryline. However, the ongoing storms (north of the Red River) are outpacing the buoyancy axis that is roughly oriented along and to the west of the I-35 corridor. Given strong vertical wind shear north of the Red River, Category 1/Marginal risk-based probabilities have been maintained. An instance or two of damaging gusts, large hail, or maybe a tornado could still occur for any storm that can manage to ingest surface-based, unstable parcels before weakening over the next couple of hours. Farther south, storms along and to the south of the Red River are more robust, with supercell structures observed on regional/MRMS mosaic radar imagery. Mid 50s surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates support 500+ J/kg SBCAPE. Despite marginal buoyancy, 30+ kt 850 mb flow beneath the 60+ kt westerly jet streak support curved and elongated hodographs. As such, supercells and linear segments are expected to continue developing down toward the Edwards Plateau and should persist eastward through tonight with a large hail/damaging gust threat. Given strong low-level shear, a tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... An instance of large hail, a damaging wind gust, or perhaps a tornado, remain possible this evening, particularly in central or northern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak is overspreading the southern Plains, supporting the continued eastward progression of a dryline pendant from a strong surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Multiple clusters of storms are in progress across the central and southern Plains ahead of the dryline. However, the ongoing storms (north of the Red River) are outpacing the buoyancy axis that is roughly oriented along and to the west of the I-35 corridor. Given strong vertical wind shear north of the Red River, Category 1/Marginal risk-based probabilities have been maintained. An instance or two of damaging gusts, large hail, or maybe a tornado could still occur for any storm that can manage to ingest surface-based, unstable parcels before weakening over the next couple of hours. Farther south, storms along and to the south of the Red River are more robust, with supercell structures observed on regional/MRMS mosaic radar imagery. Mid 50s surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates support 500+ J/kg SBCAPE. Despite marginal buoyancy, 30+ kt 850 mb flow beneath the 60+ kt westerly jet streak support curved and elongated hodographs. As such, supercells and linear segments are expected to continue developing down toward the Edwards Plateau and should persist eastward through tonight with a large hail/damaging gust threat. Given strong low-level shear, a tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... An instance of large hail, a damaging wind gust, or perhaps a tornado, remain possible this evening, particularly in central or northern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak is overspreading the southern Plains, supporting the continued eastward progression of a dryline pendant from a strong surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Multiple clusters of storms are in progress across the central and southern Plains ahead of the dryline. However, the ongoing storms (north of the Red River) are outpacing the buoyancy axis that is roughly oriented along and to the west of the I-35 corridor. Given strong vertical wind shear north of the Red River, Category 1/Marginal risk-based probabilities have been maintained. An instance or two of damaging gusts, large hail, or maybe a tornado could still occur for any storm that can manage to ingest surface-based, unstable parcels before weakening over the next couple of hours. Farther south, storms along and to the south of the Red River are more robust, with supercell structures observed on regional/MRMS mosaic radar imagery. Mid 50s surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates support 500+ J/kg SBCAPE. Despite marginal buoyancy, 30+ kt 850 mb flow beneath the 60+ kt westerly jet streak support curved and elongated hodographs. As such, supercells and linear segments are expected to continue developing down toward the Edwards Plateau and should persist eastward through tonight with a large hail/damaging gust threat. Given strong low-level shear, a tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... An instance of large hail, a damaging wind gust, or perhaps a tornado, remain possible this evening, particularly in central or northern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak is overspreading the southern Plains, supporting the continued eastward progression of a dryline pendant from a strong surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Multiple clusters of storms are in progress across the central and southern Plains ahead of the dryline. However, the ongoing storms (north of the Red River) are outpacing the buoyancy axis that is roughly oriented along and to the west of the I-35 corridor. Given strong vertical wind shear north of the Red River, Category 1/Marginal risk-based probabilities have been maintained. An instance or two of damaging gusts, large hail, or maybe a tornado could still occur for any storm that can manage to ingest surface-based, unstable parcels before weakening over the next couple of hours. Farther south, storms along and to the south of the Red River are more robust, with supercell structures observed on regional/MRMS mosaic radar imagery. Mid 50s surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates support 500+ J/kg SBCAPE. Despite marginal buoyancy, 30+ kt 850 mb flow beneath the 60+ kt westerly jet streak support curved and elongated hodographs. As such, supercells and linear segments are expected to continue developing down toward the Edwards Plateau and should persist eastward through tonight with a large hail/damaging gust threat. Given strong low-level shear, a tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... An instance of large hail, a damaging wind gust, or perhaps a tornado, remain possible this evening, particularly in central or northern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak is overspreading the southern Plains, supporting the continued eastward progression of a dryline pendant from a strong surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Multiple clusters of storms are in progress across the central and southern Plains ahead of the dryline. However, the ongoing storms (north of the Red River) are outpacing the buoyancy axis that is roughly oriented along and to the west of the I-35 corridor. Given strong vertical wind shear north of the Red River, Category 1/Marginal risk-based probabilities have been maintained. An instance or two of damaging gusts, large hail, or maybe a tornado could still occur for any storm that can manage to ingest surface-based, unstable parcels before weakening over the next couple of hours. Farther south, storms along and to the south of the Red River are more robust, with supercell structures observed on regional/MRMS mosaic radar imagery. Mid 50s surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates support 500+ J/kg SBCAPE. Despite marginal buoyancy, 30+ kt 850 mb flow beneath the 60+ kt westerly jet streak support curved and elongated hodographs. As such, supercells and linear segments are expected to continue developing down toward the Edwards Plateau and should persist eastward through tonight with a large hail/damaging gust threat. Given strong low-level shear, a tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... An instance of large hail, a damaging wind gust, or perhaps a tornado, remain possible this evening, particularly in central or northern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak is overspreading the southern Plains, supporting the continued eastward progression of a dryline pendant from a strong surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Multiple clusters of storms are in progress across the central and southern Plains ahead of the dryline. However, the ongoing storms (north of the Red River) are outpacing the buoyancy axis that is roughly oriented along and to the west of the I-35 corridor. Given strong vertical wind shear north of the Red River, Category 1/Marginal risk-based probabilities have been maintained. An instance or two of damaging gusts, large hail, or maybe a tornado could still occur for any storm that can manage to ingest surface-based, unstable parcels before weakening over the next couple of hours. Farther south, storms along and to the south of the Red River are more robust, with supercell structures observed on regional/MRMS mosaic radar imagery. Mid 50s surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates support 500+ J/kg SBCAPE. Despite marginal buoyancy, 30+ kt 850 mb flow beneath the 60+ kt westerly jet streak support curved and elongated hodographs. As such, supercells and linear segments are expected to continue developing down toward the Edwards Plateau and should persist eastward through tonight with a large hail/damaging gust threat. Given strong low-level shear, a tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 Read more

MD 0296 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...Northwest Kansas...Southern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242305Z - 250130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe threat will likely continue across parts of northwest Kansas and southern Nebraska. Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will be possible. Weather watch issuance remains possible, although the severe threat is only expected to persist for a few more hours. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 987 mb low over far southwest Kansas, with an inverted surface trough extending north-northeastward from northwest Kansas into central Nebraska. Several linear-based storms are ongoing near the trough. In spite of surface dewpoints only in the mid to upper 40s F, the RAP has 500 to 750 J/kg of MLCAPE. The last WSR-88D VWP at Hastings has 30-35 knots of 0-6 km shear, and veering of the winds with height in the lowest 2 km. This should be enough to continue an isolated severe threat. Isolated large hail could occur with strongest of updrafts, along with a few marginally severe wind gusts. Also, a potential for a landspout tornado could continue along and near the eastern edge of the convection. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39249893 39899845 40489821 40769837 40919888 40919931 40839961 40609986 40409998 39800040 39470051 39210036 39099993 39079945 39249893 Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ABI TO 30 SW FSI TO 10 WNW CHK TO 20 W END TO 30 NNW P28 TO 35 S HLC. ..BROYLES..03/25/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC009-051-077-095-145-151-155-159-165-185-195-250140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON ELLIS HARPER KINGMAN PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH STAFFORD TREGO OKC003-017-019-031-033-047-051-053-067-073-085-137-250140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA CANADIAN CARTER COMANCHE COTTON GARFIELD GRADY GRANT JEFFERSON KINGFISHER LOVE STEPHENS TXC009-023-077-207-253-417-447-485-250140- TX Read more

MD 0297 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59... FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0297 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma...North Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59... Valid 242346Z - 250145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts and potential for a brief tornado will likely continue for a couple more hours. As this storms moves to the east of WW 59, a local extension in area may be needed across parts of the area. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a trough extending southward across west Texas, with a dryline to the east of the trough. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline in northwest Texas, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 50s F and MLCAPE is estimated in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. The Frederick WSR-88D VWP currently has 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and veering winds with height in the lowest 1 km. This, along with strong large-scale ascent associated with an approaching shortwave trough, will support a threat for supercells and large hail. Wind damage will also be possible. In addition, low-level shear appears sufficient for a tornado threat, but any threat should remain isolated and brief. As the storm in eastern Wichita County near the Red River moves further east into the weaker instability, a downtrend is eventually expected to occur. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34699742 34629787 34389836 33959866 33519865 33189838 33089792 33119749 33249715 33469683 33829667 34179665 34569692 34699742 Read more

MD 0296 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...Northwest Kansas...Southern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242305Z - 250130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe threat will likely continue across parts of northwest Kansas and southern Nebraska. Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will be possible. Weather watch issuance remains possible, although the severe threat is only expected to persist for a few more hours. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 987 mb low over far southwest Kansas, with an inverted surface trough extending north-northeastward from northwest Kansas into central Nebraska. Several linear-based storms are ongoing near the trough. In spite of surface dewpoints only in the mid to upper 40s F, the RAP has 500 to 750 J/kg of MLCAPE. The last WSR-88D VWP at Hastings has 30-35 knots of 0-6 km shear, and veering of the winds with height in the lowest 2 km. This should be enough to continue an isolated severe threat. Isolated large hail could occur with strongest of updrafts, along with a few marginally severe wind gusts. Also, a potential for a landspout tornado could continue along and near the eastern edge of the convection. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39249893 39899845 40489821 40769837 40919888 40919931 40839961 40609986 40409998 39800040 39470051 39210036 39099993 39079945 39249893 Read more

MD 0295 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0295 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0504 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Minnesota and northern/central Wisconsin Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 242204Z - 250300Z SUMMARY...A snowband with eventual heavy rates near 1-1.5 inch/hour is expected to move northward across parts of southeastern Minnesota and northern/central Wisconsin into tonight. The onset of heavier rates is expected in the 23Z-04Z time frame. DISCUSSION...KARX radar data and mesoanalysis as of 22Z indicate a well-defined frontogenetic band moving northward across far northern IA, southern MN, and southwest WI. This band is generally located along the northern periphery of a swath of 40-50-kt 1-km flow per regional VWP data, which also shows a large clockwise-curved low-level hodograph -- indicative of strong low-level warm-air advection. The associated low-level warm nose is yielding melting of hydrometeors beneath the snowband (and a robust bright-banding signature), with light to moderate snowfall rates thus far. With time, the band will continue northward into a region of colder low-level air, and additional low-level cooling should be aided by nocturnal effects and wet-bulbing. As a result, snowfall rates should eventually increase to near 1-1.5 inch/hour as the snowband moves into the increasingly cold air. There is some uncertainty on how widespread these heavier rates will be (especially in the next couple of hours), due to the marginally cold temperatures and much of the frontogenetic ascent remaining below the dendritic growth zone. Nevertheless, the heavy-snow potential should increase in the 23Z-04Z time frame. ..Weinman.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44059117 43959249 43979386 44239442 44649458 45019452 45409416 45709334 45959186 45928898 45698837 45288825 44718867 44218993 44059117 Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CDS TO 30 SE CSM TO 15 SW AVK TO 40 WSW P28 TO 20 SSW GCK. ..WEINMAN..03/24/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-055-057-069-077-083-095-097-101-119- 135-145-151-155-159-165-171-185-195-250040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GRAY HARPER HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA LANE MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH SCOTT STAFFORD TREGO OKC003-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-047-051-053-065-067-073-075- 093-137-141-149-151-153-250040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD Read more

WW 59 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 241950Z - 250200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 59 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Central Kansas Western Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a dryline over the Texas Panhandle. These storms will spread eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 80 miles north northeast of Dodge City KS to 80 miles south southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0294 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59... FOR WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0294 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...Western Kansas...Western Oklahoma...Northwest Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59... Valid 242137Z - 242330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail, wind damage and an isolated tornado threat are expected over the next few hours, as storms move eastward through WW 59 late this afternoon into early evening. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 987 mb low over far southeast Colorado with a dryline extending southward from near the low along the Texas-Oklahoma state line and into northwest Texas. Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing just to the east of the dryline form southwest Kansas into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. The airmass east of the dryline is weakly unstable, with MLCAPE estimated by the RAP in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. The WSR-88D VWP at Frederick has 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, with some veering with height in the lowest 2 km. The strong deep-layer shear is evident along most of the dryline due to the exit region of an approaching mid-level jet. As this feature moves across the southern and central Plains early this evening, lift and shear will support supercell development. Although large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, a brief tornado or two could occur with the stronger rotating storms. ..Broyles.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...GLD...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 35979997 34159994 33320022 32760020 32599949 33179863 34659825 36879843 38059900 38509959 38670007 38650070 38430116 37980124 37080041 35979997 Read more