Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South into parts of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from eastern portions of the southern Great Plains into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys on Saturday. In conjunction with this shortwave, a surface low is forecast to gradually deepen as it moves from southern MS toward the southern Appalachians. ...Parts of the Southeast... Confidence remains relatively low regarding convective evolution across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas on Saturday, though some threat for locally damaging wind and a few tornadoes remains evident, especially from the central Gulf Coast into parts of the TN Valley. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing Saturday morning from near the LA Gulf Coast into parts of MS/AL, within the warm conveyor region of the developing cyclone. Rich low-level moisture and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support organized convection, with some morning threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado or two from southeast LA into southern MS/AL and eventually the FL Panhandle. This initial band of convection may reach southwest GA by early afternoon with an isolated severe threat, before weakening as large-scale ascent becomes displaced to the north. In the wake of morning convection, some low-level moistening is expected across much of AL into far southern TN, in advance of a cold front that will be moving eastward in conjunction with the surface low. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, resulting in the potential for MLCAPE to increase to at least 500 J/kg range, though the magnitude of destabilization will depend on the extent of heating/moistening in the wake of morning convection, which remains uncertain at this time. If robust convection can evolve and be sustained, a few relatively low-topped supercells may evolve with time along/ahead of the cold front and spread eastward with a threat of a couple tornadoes, isolated damaging wind, and small to perhaps marginally severe hail. Some severe threat could reach as far east as the Carolina Piedmont region Saturday night, as convection spreads eastward along the effective warm-frontal zone in conjunction with the surface low. ..Dean.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South into parts of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from eastern portions of the southern Great Plains into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys on Saturday. In conjunction with this shortwave, a surface low is forecast to gradually deepen as it moves from southern MS toward the southern Appalachians. ...Parts of the Southeast... Confidence remains relatively low regarding convective evolution across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas on Saturday, though some threat for locally damaging wind and a few tornadoes remains evident, especially from the central Gulf Coast into parts of the TN Valley. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing Saturday morning from near the LA Gulf Coast into parts of MS/AL, within the warm conveyor region of the developing cyclone. Rich low-level moisture and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support organized convection, with some morning threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado or two from southeast LA into southern MS/AL and eventually the FL Panhandle. This initial band of convection may reach southwest GA by early afternoon with an isolated severe threat, before weakening as large-scale ascent becomes displaced to the north. In the wake of morning convection, some low-level moistening is expected across much of AL into far southern TN, in advance of a cold front that will be moving eastward in conjunction with the surface low. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, resulting in the potential for MLCAPE to increase to at least 500 J/kg range, though the magnitude of destabilization will depend on the extent of heating/moistening in the wake of morning convection, which remains uncertain at this time. If robust convection can evolve and be sustained, a few relatively low-topped supercells may evolve with time along/ahead of the cold front and spread eastward with a threat of a couple tornadoes, isolated damaging wind, and small to perhaps marginally severe hail. Some severe threat could reach as far east as the Carolina Piedmont region Saturday night, as convection spreads eastward along the effective warm-frontal zone in conjunction with the surface low. ..Dean.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South into parts of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from eastern portions of the southern Great Plains into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys on Saturday. In conjunction with this shortwave, a surface low is forecast to gradually deepen as it moves from southern MS toward the southern Appalachians. ...Parts of the Southeast... Confidence remains relatively low regarding convective evolution across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas on Saturday, though some threat for locally damaging wind and a few tornadoes remains evident, especially from the central Gulf Coast into parts of the TN Valley. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing Saturday morning from near the LA Gulf Coast into parts of MS/AL, within the warm conveyor region of the developing cyclone. Rich low-level moisture and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support organized convection, with some morning threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado or two from southeast LA into southern MS/AL and eventually the FL Panhandle. This initial band of convection may reach southwest GA by early afternoon with an isolated severe threat, before weakening as large-scale ascent becomes displaced to the north. In the wake of morning convection, some low-level moistening is expected across much of AL into far southern TN, in advance of a cold front that will be moving eastward in conjunction with the surface low. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, resulting in the potential for MLCAPE to increase to at least 500 J/kg range, though the magnitude of destabilization will depend on the extent of heating/moistening in the wake of morning convection, which remains uncertain at this time. If robust convection can evolve and be sustained, a few relatively low-topped supercells may evolve with time along/ahead of the cold front and spread eastward with a threat of a couple tornadoes, isolated damaging wind, and small to perhaps marginally severe hail. Some severe threat could reach as far east as the Carolina Piedmont region Saturday night, as convection spreads eastward along the effective warm-frontal zone in conjunction with the surface low. ..Dean.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South into parts of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from eastern portions of the southern Great Plains into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys on Saturday. In conjunction with this shortwave, a surface low is forecast to gradually deepen as it moves from southern MS toward the southern Appalachians. ...Parts of the Southeast... Confidence remains relatively low regarding convective evolution across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas on Saturday, though some threat for locally damaging wind and a few tornadoes remains evident, especially from the central Gulf Coast into parts of the TN Valley. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing Saturday morning from near the LA Gulf Coast into parts of MS/AL, within the warm conveyor region of the developing cyclone. Rich low-level moisture and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support organized convection, with some morning threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado or two from southeast LA into southern MS/AL and eventually the FL Panhandle. This initial band of convection may reach southwest GA by early afternoon with an isolated severe threat, before weakening as large-scale ascent becomes displaced to the north. In the wake of morning convection, some low-level moistening is expected across much of AL into far southern TN, in advance of a cold front that will be moving eastward in conjunction with the surface low. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, resulting in the potential for MLCAPE to increase to at least 500 J/kg range, though the magnitude of destabilization will depend on the extent of heating/moistening in the wake of morning convection, which remains uncertain at this time. If robust convection can evolve and be sustained, a few relatively low-topped supercells may evolve with time along/ahead of the cold front and spread eastward with a threat of a couple tornadoes, isolated damaging wind, and small to perhaps marginally severe hail. Some severe threat could reach as far east as the Carolina Piedmont region Saturday night, as convection spreads eastward along the effective warm-frontal zone in conjunction with the surface low. ..Dean.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South into parts of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from eastern portions of the southern Great Plains into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys on Saturday. In conjunction with this shortwave, a surface low is forecast to gradually deepen as it moves from southern MS toward the southern Appalachians. ...Parts of the Southeast... Confidence remains relatively low regarding convective evolution across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas on Saturday, though some threat for locally damaging wind and a few tornadoes remains evident, especially from the central Gulf Coast into parts of the TN Valley. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing Saturday morning from near the LA Gulf Coast into parts of MS/AL, within the warm conveyor region of the developing cyclone. Rich low-level moisture and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support organized convection, with some morning threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado or two from southeast LA into southern MS/AL and eventually the FL Panhandle. This initial band of convection may reach southwest GA by early afternoon with an isolated severe threat, before weakening as large-scale ascent becomes displaced to the north. In the wake of morning convection, some low-level moistening is expected across much of AL into far southern TN, in advance of a cold front that will be moving eastward in conjunction with the surface low. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, resulting in the potential for MLCAPE to increase to at least 500 J/kg range, though the magnitude of destabilization will depend on the extent of heating/moistening in the wake of morning convection, which remains uncertain at this time. If robust convection can evolve and be sustained, a few relatively low-topped supercells may evolve with time along/ahead of the cold front and spread eastward with a threat of a couple tornadoes, isolated damaging wind, and small to perhaps marginally severe hail. Some severe threat could reach as far east as the Carolina Piedmont region Saturday night, as convection spreads eastward along the effective warm-frontal zone in conjunction with the surface low. ..Dean.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRE-DAWN SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning over parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Southeast states today... Recent radar and satellite imagery shows multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring over the central Gulf of Mexico. This activity will continue through the day, with only weak forcing and minimal destabilization occurring inland across the Gulf coast states and Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in this area, but coverage is expected to be quite limited. ...LA/MS early Saturday morning... Later in the forecast period, strong low-level cyclogenesis is forecast across the Arklatex region as the primary upper trough approaches from the west. Strengthening low-level wind fields will enhance warm advection and lift, resulting in scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Morning model guidance suggests the potential for the intensification/organization of a line of convection along the strengthening cold front over LA/MS after 09z. Forecast soundings indicate near-surface-based convection and strong vertical shear profiles - posing some risk of gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado after 09z. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area to cover this scenario. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRE-DAWN SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning over parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Southeast states today... Recent radar and satellite imagery shows multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring over the central Gulf of Mexico. This activity will continue through the day, with only weak forcing and minimal destabilization occurring inland across the Gulf coast states and Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in this area, but coverage is expected to be quite limited. ...LA/MS early Saturday morning... Later in the forecast period, strong low-level cyclogenesis is forecast across the Arklatex region as the primary upper trough approaches from the west. Strengthening low-level wind fields will enhance warm advection and lift, resulting in scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Morning model guidance suggests the potential for the intensification/organization of a line of convection along the strengthening cold front over LA/MS after 09z. Forecast soundings indicate near-surface-based convection and strong vertical shear profiles - posing some risk of gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado after 09z. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area to cover this scenario. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRE-DAWN SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning over parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Southeast states today... Recent radar and satellite imagery shows multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring over the central Gulf of Mexico. This activity will continue through the day, with only weak forcing and minimal destabilization occurring inland across the Gulf coast states and Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in this area, but coverage is expected to be quite limited. ...LA/MS early Saturday morning... Later in the forecast period, strong low-level cyclogenesis is forecast across the Arklatex region as the primary upper trough approaches from the west. Strengthening low-level wind fields will enhance warm advection and lift, resulting in scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Morning model guidance suggests the potential for the intensification/organization of a line of convection along the strengthening cold front over LA/MS after 09z. Forecast soundings indicate near-surface-based convection and strong vertical shear profiles - posing some risk of gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado after 09z. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area to cover this scenario. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRE-DAWN SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning over parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Southeast states today... Recent radar and satellite imagery shows multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring over the central Gulf of Mexico. This activity will continue through the day, with only weak forcing and minimal destabilization occurring inland across the Gulf coast states and Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in this area, but coverage is expected to be quite limited. ...LA/MS early Saturday morning... Later in the forecast period, strong low-level cyclogenesis is forecast across the Arklatex region as the primary upper trough approaches from the west. Strengthening low-level wind fields will enhance warm advection and lift, resulting in scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Morning model guidance suggests the potential for the intensification/organization of a line of convection along the strengthening cold front over LA/MS after 09z. Forecast soundings indicate near-surface-based convection and strong vertical shear profiles - posing some risk of gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado after 09z. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area to cover this scenario. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRE-DAWN SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning over parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Southeast states today... Recent radar and satellite imagery shows multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring over the central Gulf of Mexico. This activity will continue through the day, with only weak forcing and minimal destabilization occurring inland across the Gulf coast states and Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in this area, but coverage is expected to be quite limited. ...LA/MS early Saturday morning... Later in the forecast period, strong low-level cyclogenesis is forecast across the Arklatex region as the primary upper trough approaches from the west. Strengthening low-level wind fields will enhance warm advection and lift, resulting in scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Morning model guidance suggests the potential for the intensification/organization of a line of convection along the strengthening cold front over LA/MS after 09z. Forecast soundings indicate near-surface-based convection and strong vertical shear profiles - posing some risk of gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado after 09z. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area to cover this scenario. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRE-DAWN SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning over parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Southeast states today... Recent radar and satellite imagery shows multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring over the central Gulf of Mexico. This activity will continue through the day, with only weak forcing and minimal destabilization occurring inland across the Gulf coast states and Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in this area, but coverage is expected to be quite limited. ...LA/MS early Saturday morning... Later in the forecast period, strong low-level cyclogenesis is forecast across the Arklatex region as the primary upper trough approaches from the west. Strengthening low-level wind fields will enhance warm advection and lift, resulting in scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Morning model guidance suggests the potential for the intensification/organization of a line of convection along the strengthening cold front over LA/MS after 09z. Forecast soundings indicate near-surface-based convection and strong vertical shear profiles - posing some risk of gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado after 09z. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area to cover this scenario. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed. The previous forecast (below) remains on track based on morning observations and latest guidance. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed. The previous forecast (below) remains on track based on morning observations and latest guidance. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed. The previous forecast (below) remains on track based on morning observations and latest guidance. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed. The previous forecast (below) remains on track based on morning observations and latest guidance. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed. The previous forecast (below) remains on track based on morning observations and latest guidance. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed. The previous forecast (below) remains on track based on morning observations and latest guidance. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over parts of west Texas, and tonight near the central Gulf Coast and over Louisiana. Organized severe weather appears improbable. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain progressive over the CONUS this period, with a trough now over CO and NM being the main convective influence aloft. This perturbation will house an intermittently closed 500-mb low -- initially over east-central/ northeastern NM. That low should move roughly eastward across the southern High Plains today, reaching the Caprock Escarpment between LBB-CDS around 00Z, then moving roughly down the Red River Valley to near I-35 in southern OK or extreme north-central TX by 12Z tomorrow. By that time, the positively tilted trough should extend from there southwestward to northern Coahuila. At the surface, a broad, wavy baroclinic zone was analyzed across the northern Gulf, modulated on the mesoscale by convective boundaries. This feature should shift north but still remain mostly offshore through the period, except for some warm-frontal incursion into the MS/AL/western FL Panhandle region possible near the end of the period. This would occur southeast of frontal-wave low development over the northwest Gulf, offshore from the TX Coast, in response to the approaching mid/upper trough. The low should move northeastward close to a LCH-JAN track overnight, with a synoptic warm front/inverted trough northeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...West TX... An organized thunderstorm or two may move southeastward across the southern South Plains and/or northern Permian Basin regions of west TX this afternoon, with potential for strong gusts and/or hail approaching severe limits. Though surface temperatures will remain cool over this region today (50s to low 60s in general), cooling aloft with the approaching trough will steepen low/middle-level lapse rates enough to support isolated strong convection, amid 30-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Inflow-layer parcels may even become briefly surface-based, depending on cloud breaks and insolation duration locally, with MLCAPE in the 300-700 J/kg range possible along the southern rim of the cold-core region. Lack of more-substantial inflow-layer moisture/buoyancy should preclude an organized/areal severe threat. ...Gulf Coast States... Strong convection is evident over open Gulf waters south of LA, in IR satellite pictures, lightning data and imagery from distantly located radar(s), with an extensive area of downstream anvil material and precip from that also being shown in radar composites. This precip may be under-depicted in composites, given the unavailability of the closest (former Slidell) radar while it is being relocated westward. This convection, being surface-based over a well-modified and relatively high-theta-e boundary layer, is likely to remain both organized and over the Gulf through the day and into much of tonight. Meanwhile, a relatively stable boundary layer to its north should be maintained and reinforced by: 1. Its own continuing downshear precip plume, and 2. Additional, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms expected to form over east TX and LA from this afternoon through tonight, as elevated warm advection and moisture transport occur beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates overnight. Any sustained/discrete convection overnight in LA may produce hail with MUCAPE up to about 1500 J/kg and 40-50-kt effective-shear magnitude possible. However, with a lack of elevated MUCINH reasonably apparent in forecast soundings, storm mode may become clustered/messy fairly quickly. For now any severe-hail threat appears too conditional/isolated for probabilities. One area of interest for the last few hours of the period may be the coastal corridor around BIX-MOB-PNS, where theta-e advection may render surface-based parcels if earlier convection and related boundaries move away long enough beforehand. For now the predictability of such mesoscale processes remains too low to introduce unconditional severe probabilities, but this potential will be monitored through remaining outlook cycles. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over parts of west Texas, and tonight near the central Gulf Coast and over Louisiana. Organized severe weather appears improbable. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain progressive over the CONUS this period, with a trough now over CO and NM being the main convective influence aloft. This perturbation will house an intermittently closed 500-mb low -- initially over east-central/ northeastern NM. That low should move roughly eastward across the southern High Plains today, reaching the Caprock Escarpment between LBB-CDS around 00Z, then moving roughly down the Red River Valley to near I-35 in southern OK or extreme north-central TX by 12Z tomorrow. By that time, the positively tilted trough should extend from there southwestward to northern Coahuila. At the surface, a broad, wavy baroclinic zone was analyzed across the northern Gulf, modulated on the mesoscale by convective boundaries. This feature should shift north but still remain mostly offshore through the period, except for some warm-frontal incursion into the MS/AL/western FL Panhandle region possible near the end of the period. This would occur southeast of frontal-wave low development over the northwest Gulf, offshore from the TX Coast, in response to the approaching mid/upper trough. The low should move northeastward close to a LCH-JAN track overnight, with a synoptic warm front/inverted trough northeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...West TX... An organized thunderstorm or two may move southeastward across the southern South Plains and/or northern Permian Basin regions of west TX this afternoon, with potential for strong gusts and/or hail approaching severe limits. Though surface temperatures will remain cool over this region today (50s to low 60s in general), cooling aloft with the approaching trough will steepen low/middle-level lapse rates enough to support isolated strong convection, amid 30-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Inflow-layer parcels may even become briefly surface-based, depending on cloud breaks and insolation duration locally, with MLCAPE in the 300-700 J/kg range possible along the southern rim of the cold-core region. Lack of more-substantial inflow-layer moisture/buoyancy should preclude an organized/areal severe threat. ...Gulf Coast States... Strong convection is evident over open Gulf waters south of LA, in IR satellite pictures, lightning data and imagery from distantly located radar(s), with an extensive area of downstream anvil material and precip from that also being shown in radar composites. This precip may be under-depicted in composites, given the unavailability of the closest (former Slidell) radar while it is being relocated westward. This convection, being surface-based over a well-modified and relatively high-theta-e boundary layer, is likely to remain both organized and over the Gulf through the day and into much of tonight. Meanwhile, a relatively stable boundary layer to its north should be maintained and reinforced by: 1. Its own continuing downshear precip plume, and 2. Additional, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms expected to form over east TX and LA from this afternoon through tonight, as elevated warm advection and moisture transport occur beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates overnight. Any sustained/discrete convection overnight in LA may produce hail with MUCAPE up to about 1500 J/kg and 40-50-kt effective-shear magnitude possible. However, with a lack of elevated MUCINH reasonably apparent in forecast soundings, storm mode may become clustered/messy fairly quickly. For now any severe-hail threat appears too conditional/isolated for probabilities. One area of interest for the last few hours of the period may be the coastal corridor around BIX-MOB-PNS, where theta-e advection may render surface-based parcels if earlier convection and related boundaries move away long enough beforehand. For now the predictability of such mesoscale processes remains too low to introduce unconditional severe probabilities, but this potential will be monitored through remaining outlook cycles. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over parts of west Texas, and tonight near the central Gulf Coast and over Louisiana. Organized severe weather appears improbable. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain progressive over the CONUS this period, with a trough now over CO and NM being the main convective influence aloft. This perturbation will house an intermittently closed 500-mb low -- initially over east-central/ northeastern NM. That low should move roughly eastward across the southern High Plains today, reaching the Caprock Escarpment between LBB-CDS around 00Z, then moving roughly down the Red River Valley to near I-35 in southern OK or extreme north-central TX by 12Z tomorrow. By that time, the positively tilted trough should extend from there southwestward to northern Coahuila. At the surface, a broad, wavy baroclinic zone was analyzed across the northern Gulf, modulated on the mesoscale by convective boundaries. This feature should shift north but still remain mostly offshore through the period, except for some warm-frontal incursion into the MS/AL/western FL Panhandle region possible near the end of the period. This would occur southeast of frontal-wave low development over the northwest Gulf, offshore from the TX Coast, in response to the approaching mid/upper trough. The low should move northeastward close to a LCH-JAN track overnight, with a synoptic warm front/inverted trough northeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...West TX... An organized thunderstorm or two may move southeastward across the southern South Plains and/or northern Permian Basin regions of west TX this afternoon, with potential for strong gusts and/or hail approaching severe limits. Though surface temperatures will remain cool over this region today (50s to low 60s in general), cooling aloft with the approaching trough will steepen low/middle-level lapse rates enough to support isolated strong convection, amid 30-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Inflow-layer parcels may even become briefly surface-based, depending on cloud breaks and insolation duration locally, with MLCAPE in the 300-700 J/kg range possible along the southern rim of the cold-core region. Lack of more-substantial inflow-layer moisture/buoyancy should preclude an organized/areal severe threat. ...Gulf Coast States... Strong convection is evident over open Gulf waters south of LA, in IR satellite pictures, lightning data and imagery from distantly located radar(s), with an extensive area of downstream anvil material and precip from that also being shown in radar composites. This precip may be under-depicted in composites, given the unavailability of the closest (former Slidell) radar while it is being relocated westward. This convection, being surface-based over a well-modified and relatively high-theta-e boundary layer, is likely to remain both organized and over the Gulf through the day and into much of tonight. Meanwhile, a relatively stable boundary layer to its north should be maintained and reinforced by: 1. Its own continuing downshear precip plume, and 2. Additional, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms expected to form over east TX and LA from this afternoon through tonight, as elevated warm advection and moisture transport occur beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates overnight. Any sustained/discrete convection overnight in LA may produce hail with MUCAPE up to about 1500 J/kg and 40-50-kt effective-shear magnitude possible. However, with a lack of elevated MUCINH reasonably apparent in forecast soundings, storm mode may become clustered/messy fairly quickly. For now any severe-hail threat appears too conditional/isolated for probabilities. One area of interest for the last few hours of the period may be the coastal corridor around BIX-MOB-PNS, where theta-e advection may render surface-based parcels if earlier convection and related boundaries move away long enough beforehand. For now the predictability of such mesoscale processes remains too low to introduce unconditional severe probabilities, but this potential will be monitored through remaining outlook cycles. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/26/2024 Read more