Severe Storms

MD 0293 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0293 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...northwestern Kansas into south-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242052Z - 242215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of severe hail and gusty winds will increase in coverage this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Day time heating is noted across western Kansas into south-central Nebraska where temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 60s. Moisture across this region remains limited, with dew points in the 40s. Forcing along the surface cold front to the west amid steep mid-level lapse rates and cooling aloft has allowed thunderstorms to development over the last hour. Further thunderstorm development will be likely through the afternoon and evening, with the potential for instances of severe hail and gusty winds. Given the weak shear and poor thermodynamic profiles, coverage of this threat is uncertain. This area will be monitored for watch potential in the coming hour. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 40909946 41019911 40929861 40749828 40499796 40299781 39929790 39509840 39149927 38670065 38690143 38890153 39300092 39750049 40289994 40599969 40909946 Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/24/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-055-057-069-077-083-095-097-101-119- 135-145-151-155-159-165-171-185-195-242240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GRAY HARPER HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA LANE MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH SCOTT STAFFORD TREGO OKC003-007-009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-045-047-051-053-055- 057-059-065-067-073-075-093-129-137-141-149-151-153-242240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/24/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-055-057-069-077-083-095-097-101-119- 135-145-151-155-159-165-171-185-195-242240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GRAY HARPER HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA LANE MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH SCOTT STAFFORD TREGO OKC003-007-009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-045-047-051-053-055- 057-059-065-067-073-075-093-129-137-141-149-151-153-242240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first trough departing the central US early this week, strong northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low. ...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX... With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist, somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead. D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend. Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions. At this time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low. However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the most critical areas expected as guidance converges. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0292 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0292 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...southwest Kansas across the eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...western Oklahoma and northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 241903Z - 242100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form along a dryline this afternoon, and several may become severe. The primary risk will be from large hail, though locally damaging gusts or a brief tornado will also be possible. DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows substantial high-based convection forming near and behind the dryline, which currently extends from far southwest KS across the TX Panhandle and South Plains. This area is within a deep-layer steep lapse rate plume. Ahead of the dryline, clearing and heating are occurring, which will help destabilize the air mass. However, moisture is currently limited with only 40s to lower 50s F dewpoints in general. As the dryline continues to move rapidly east, a north-south broken line of storms is forecast to form, with a few robust cells producing hail. The instability axis is forecast to remain relatively narrow, especially near the OK/TX portion of the dryline initially. With time, moisture advection may result in a more favorable area for supercells later today/evening into northwest TX, as surface observations indicate increasing dewpoints. The strong deep-layer shear combined with steep lapse rates will favor hail across the entire area, with any brief tornado threat limited to the narrow uncapped area along the dryline. Given the strong flow aloft over OK and TX, storms may move off the dryline rather quickly, perhaps becoming elevated farther east. However, somewhat weaker flow over KS, as well as a wider warm sector, could sustain a supercell or two with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 32580108 33430086 34170077 34970068 36010066 36610084 37250114 37670103 38060081 38530017 38569957 38299915 37419888 35889845 35819845 35009842 33909873 33269903 32799964 32590007 32580108 Read more