Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Confidence remains reasonably high that the driest conditions across the central High Plains should be displaced from the stronger surface winds over the southern Plains, resulting in limited fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains. Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east. Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Confidence remains reasonably high that the driest conditions across the central High Plains should be displaced from the stronger surface winds over the southern Plains, resulting in limited fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains. Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east. Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Confidence remains reasonably high that the driest conditions across the central High Plains should be displaced from the stronger surface winds over the southern Plains, resulting in limited fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains. Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east. Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend along the length of the West Coast early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the base of this upper troughing over central/southern CA and into AZ throughout the period. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing by early Friday morning. A large area of precipitation is anticipated within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave, beginning the period over CA and ending the period across AZ, southern UT, and the Four Corners vicinity. Predominately stable conditions are anticipated within this leading area of precipitation. However, cooling mid-level temperatures in its wake should result in limited buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes with the more cellular convection as it gradually shifts eastward from CA into southern AZ. Some limited buoyancy may also develop during the afternoon and evening in the Four Corners vicinity, amid the persistent warm-air advection ahead of the shortwave (and ahead of large area of precipitation). As such, some of the storms may become deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, upper ridging, initially extending from the Lower MS Valley through the northern Plains, will gradually shift eastward, ending the period extended from the Mid-South through the Upper Midwest. As it does, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move across KS and OK. Some showers are possible across the southern Plains in association with this wave, but stable conditions will preclude deep convection. Upper troughing will also progress across the Upper Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, but cool, stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend along the length of the West Coast early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the base of this upper troughing over central/southern CA and into AZ throughout the period. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing by early Friday morning. A large area of precipitation is anticipated within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave, beginning the period over CA and ending the period across AZ, southern UT, and the Four Corners vicinity. Predominately stable conditions are anticipated within this leading area of precipitation. However, cooling mid-level temperatures in its wake should result in limited buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes with the more cellular convection as it gradually shifts eastward from CA into southern AZ. Some limited buoyancy may also develop during the afternoon and evening in the Four Corners vicinity, amid the persistent warm-air advection ahead of the shortwave (and ahead of large area of precipitation). As such, some of the storms may become deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, upper ridging, initially extending from the Lower MS Valley through the northern Plains, will gradually shift eastward, ending the period extended from the Mid-South through the Upper Midwest. As it does, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move across KS and OK. Some showers are possible across the southern Plains in association with this wave, but stable conditions will preclude deep convection. Upper troughing will also progress across the Upper Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, but cool, stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend along the length of the West Coast early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the base of this upper troughing over central/southern CA and into AZ throughout the period. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing by early Friday morning. A large area of precipitation is anticipated within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave, beginning the period over CA and ending the period across AZ, southern UT, and the Four Corners vicinity. Predominately stable conditions are anticipated within this leading area of precipitation. However, cooling mid-level temperatures in its wake should result in limited buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes with the more cellular convection as it gradually shifts eastward from CA into southern AZ. Some limited buoyancy may also develop during the afternoon and evening in the Four Corners vicinity, amid the persistent warm-air advection ahead of the shortwave (and ahead of large area of precipitation). As such, some of the storms may become deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, upper ridging, initially extending from the Lower MS Valley through the northern Plains, will gradually shift eastward, ending the period extended from the Mid-South through the Upper Midwest. As it does, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move across KS and OK. Some showers are possible across the southern Plains in association with this wave, but stable conditions will preclude deep convection. Upper troughing will also progress across the Upper Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, but cool, stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend along the length of the West Coast early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the base of this upper troughing over central/southern CA and into AZ throughout the period. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing by early Friday morning. A large area of precipitation is anticipated within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave, beginning the period over CA and ending the period across AZ, southern UT, and the Four Corners vicinity. Predominately stable conditions are anticipated within this leading area of precipitation. However, cooling mid-level temperatures in its wake should result in limited buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes with the more cellular convection as it gradually shifts eastward from CA into southern AZ. Some limited buoyancy may also develop during the afternoon and evening in the Four Corners vicinity, amid the persistent warm-air advection ahead of the shortwave (and ahead of large area of precipitation). As such, some of the storms may become deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, upper ridging, initially extending from the Lower MS Valley through the northern Plains, will gradually shift eastward, ending the period extended from the Mid-South through the Upper Midwest. As it does, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move across KS and OK. Some showers are possible across the southern Plains in association with this wave, but stable conditions will preclude deep convection. Upper troughing will also progress across the Upper Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, but cool, stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend along the length of the West Coast early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the base of this upper troughing over central/southern CA and into AZ throughout the period. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing by early Friday morning. A large area of precipitation is anticipated within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave, beginning the period over CA and ending the period across AZ, southern UT, and the Four Corners vicinity. Predominately stable conditions are anticipated within this leading area of precipitation. However, cooling mid-level temperatures in its wake should result in limited buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes with the more cellular convection as it gradually shifts eastward from CA into southern AZ. Some limited buoyancy may also develop during the afternoon and evening in the Four Corners vicinity, amid the persistent warm-air advection ahead of the shortwave (and ahead of large area of precipitation). As such, some of the storms may become deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, upper ridging, initially extending from the Lower MS Valley through the northern Plains, will gradually shift eastward, ending the period extended from the Mid-South through the Upper Midwest. As it does, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move across KS and OK. Some showers are possible across the southern Plains in association with this wave, but stable conditions will preclude deep convection. Upper troughing will also progress across the Upper Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, but cool, stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend along the length of the West Coast early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the base of this upper troughing over central/southern CA and into AZ throughout the period. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing by early Friday morning. A large area of precipitation is anticipated within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave, beginning the period over CA and ending the period across AZ, southern UT, and the Four Corners vicinity. Predominately stable conditions are anticipated within this leading area of precipitation. However, cooling mid-level temperatures in its wake should result in limited buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes with the more cellular convection as it gradually shifts eastward from CA into southern AZ. Some limited buoyancy may also develop during the afternoon and evening in the Four Corners vicinity, amid the persistent warm-air advection ahead of the shortwave (and ahead of large area of precipitation). As such, some of the storms may become deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, upper ridging, initially extending from the Lower MS Valley through the northern Plains, will gradually shift eastward, ending the period extended from the Mid-South through the Upper Midwest. As it does, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move across KS and OK. Some showers are possible across the southern Plains in association with this wave, but stable conditions will preclude deep convection. Upper troughing will also progress across the Upper Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, but cool, stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend along the length of the West Coast early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the base of this upper troughing over central/southern CA and into AZ throughout the period. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing by early Friday morning. A large area of precipitation is anticipated within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave, beginning the period over CA and ending the period across AZ, southern UT, and the Four Corners vicinity. Predominately stable conditions are anticipated within this leading area of precipitation. However, cooling mid-level temperatures in its wake should result in limited buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes with the more cellular convection as it gradually shifts eastward from CA into southern AZ. Some limited buoyancy may also develop during the afternoon and evening in the Four Corners vicinity, amid the persistent warm-air advection ahead of the shortwave (and ahead of large area of precipitation). As such, some of the storms may become deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, upper ridging, initially extending from the Lower MS Valley through the northern Plains, will gradually shift eastward, ending the period extended from the Mid-South through the Upper Midwest. As it does, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move across KS and OK. Some showers are possible across the southern Plains in association with this wave, but stable conditions will preclude deep convection. Upper troughing will also progress across the Upper Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, but cool, stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...CA Coast... A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today, with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support organized thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection. This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...CA Coast... A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today, with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support organized thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection. This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...CA Coast... A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today, with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support organized thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection. This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...CA Coast... A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today, with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support organized thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection. This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...CA Coast... A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today, with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support organized thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection. This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...CA Coast... A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today, with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support organized thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection. This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments needed. Forecast concerns regarding the southern/central High Plains remains on track (see the previous discussion below for details). Across southern GA and Florida, dry air is slowly filtering into region as a cold front pushes into central FL under mostly clear skies. With no apparent inhibitions for maximal RH reductions this afternoon, RH reductions into the mid to low 30s appear probable from northern to central FL. Additionally, the probability of sustained winds over 15 mph seems reasonably high, and should support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions. This appears most likely to occur across central FL, but fuels remains only marginally dry based on latest fuel reports. Highlights are withheld due to the limited availability of receptive fuels, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions is probable. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Amplified upper-level ridging will move into the Plains today. Along the West Coast, a broad upper trough will move ashore during the period. Farther east, a weak shortwave trough will lift out of the Southwest and into the central Rockies. A strong shortwave trough will exit the southeastern U.S. coastline. ...Parts of southern/central High Plains... A deeper lee trough will develop in response to the weak shortwave trough and otherwise generally increasing mid-level flow across the southern Rockies. Dry and windy conditions are possible from the Texas Panhandle into adjacent Colorado and Kansas. RH will more than likely stay above 20% for most areas (partially due to cloud cover) and winds will be marginal. Unreceptive fuels will further reduce overall fire weather concerns. ...Southern Georgia/North Florida... The shortwave trough moving through the area will deepen a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas. This should help to increase northwesterly winds across the region. RH near 30% appears possible with winds of 10-15 mph (locally greater). Without drier fuels, however, fire weather risk will likely remain minimal to localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments needed. Forecast concerns regarding the southern/central High Plains remains on track (see the previous discussion below for details). Across southern GA and Florida, dry air is slowly filtering into region as a cold front pushes into central FL under mostly clear skies. With no apparent inhibitions for maximal RH reductions this afternoon, RH reductions into the mid to low 30s appear probable from northern to central FL. Additionally, the probability of sustained winds over 15 mph seems reasonably high, and should support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions. This appears most likely to occur across central FL, but fuels remains only marginally dry based on latest fuel reports. Highlights are withheld due to the limited availability of receptive fuels, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions is probable. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Amplified upper-level ridging will move into the Plains today. Along the West Coast, a broad upper trough will move ashore during the period. Farther east, a weak shortwave trough will lift out of the Southwest and into the central Rockies. A strong shortwave trough will exit the southeastern U.S. coastline. ...Parts of southern/central High Plains... A deeper lee trough will develop in response to the weak shortwave trough and otherwise generally increasing mid-level flow across the southern Rockies. Dry and windy conditions are possible from the Texas Panhandle into adjacent Colorado and Kansas. RH will more than likely stay above 20% for most areas (partially due to cloud cover) and winds will be marginal. Unreceptive fuels will further reduce overall fire weather concerns. ...Southern Georgia/North Florida... The shortwave trough moving through the area will deepen a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas. This should help to increase northwesterly winds across the region. RH near 30% appears possible with winds of 10-15 mph (locally greater). Without drier fuels, however, fire weather risk will likely remain minimal to localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments needed. Forecast concerns regarding the southern/central High Plains remains on track (see the previous discussion below for details). Across southern GA and Florida, dry air is slowly filtering into region as a cold front pushes into central FL under mostly clear skies. With no apparent inhibitions for maximal RH reductions this afternoon, RH reductions into the mid to low 30s appear probable from northern to central FL. Additionally, the probability of sustained winds over 15 mph seems reasonably high, and should support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions. This appears most likely to occur across central FL, but fuels remains only marginally dry based on latest fuel reports. Highlights are withheld due to the limited availability of receptive fuels, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions is probable. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Amplified upper-level ridging will move into the Plains today. Along the West Coast, a broad upper trough will move ashore during the period. Farther east, a weak shortwave trough will lift out of the Southwest and into the central Rockies. A strong shortwave trough will exit the southeastern U.S. coastline. ...Parts of southern/central High Plains... A deeper lee trough will develop in response to the weak shortwave trough and otherwise generally increasing mid-level flow across the southern Rockies. Dry and windy conditions are possible from the Texas Panhandle into adjacent Colorado and Kansas. RH will more than likely stay above 20% for most areas (partially due to cloud cover) and winds will be marginal. Unreceptive fuels will further reduce overall fire weather concerns. ...Southern Georgia/North Florida... The shortwave trough moving through the area will deepen a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas. This should help to increase northwesterly winds across the region. RH near 30% appears possible with winds of 10-15 mph (locally greater). Without drier fuels, however, fire weather risk will likely remain minimal to localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments needed. Forecast concerns regarding the southern/central High Plains remains on track (see the previous discussion below for details). Across southern GA and Florida, dry air is slowly filtering into region as a cold front pushes into central FL under mostly clear skies. With no apparent inhibitions for maximal RH reductions this afternoon, RH reductions into the mid to low 30s appear probable from northern to central FL. Additionally, the probability of sustained winds over 15 mph seems reasonably high, and should support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions. This appears most likely to occur across central FL, but fuels remains only marginally dry based on latest fuel reports. Highlights are withheld due to the limited availability of receptive fuels, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions is probable. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Amplified upper-level ridging will move into the Plains today. Along the West Coast, a broad upper trough will move ashore during the period. Farther east, a weak shortwave trough will lift out of the Southwest and into the central Rockies. A strong shortwave trough will exit the southeastern U.S. coastline. ...Parts of southern/central High Plains... A deeper lee trough will develop in response to the weak shortwave trough and otherwise generally increasing mid-level flow across the southern Rockies. Dry and windy conditions are possible from the Texas Panhandle into adjacent Colorado and Kansas. RH will more than likely stay above 20% for most areas (partially due to cloud cover) and winds will be marginal. Unreceptive fuels will further reduce overall fire weather concerns. ...Southern Georgia/North Florida... The shortwave trough moving through the area will deepen a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas. This should help to increase northwesterly winds across the region. RH near 30% appears possible with winds of 10-15 mph (locally greater). Without drier fuels, however, fire weather risk will likely remain minimal to localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more