Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Update... Large-scale midlevel height fields continue to fall across the southwestern US as a significant southern-stream short-wave trough advances toward southern CA/Baja Peninsula. 500mb speed max associated with this feature will encourage the short wave to approach the lower CO River Valley/Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Cooling/steepening profiles north of the jet exhibit ample buoyancy for convection, some of which are producing lightning this evening. 00z soundings across the southwestern US support this with TUS, NKX, OAK, and FGZ all displaying a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE. Latest lightning data also supports this with pockets of deeper convection/lightning evident across the higher terrain of northern AZ, and across the interior valleys of CA. No changes are warranted to the 20z outlook regarding the prospect for thunderstorms tonight. ..Darrow.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Update... Large-scale midlevel height fields continue to fall across the southwestern US as a significant southern-stream short-wave trough advances toward southern CA/Baja Peninsula. 500mb speed max associated with this feature will encourage the short wave to approach the lower CO River Valley/Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Cooling/steepening profiles north of the jet exhibit ample buoyancy for convection, some of which are producing lightning this evening. 00z soundings across the southwestern US support this with TUS, NKX, OAK, and FGZ all displaying a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE. Latest lightning data also supports this with pockets of deeper convection/lightning evident across the higher terrain of northern AZ, and across the interior valleys of CA. No changes are warranted to the 20z outlook regarding the prospect for thunderstorms tonight. ..Darrow.. 02/02/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 1 22:15:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 1 22:15:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently west of the coast of southern CA/Baja California will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the Southwest, central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Saturday - Southwest Texas... The approach of the upper wave (and attendant jet max) will promote strong cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains by D3/Saturday afternoon. Westerly surface winds between 25-35 mph (gusting near/above 45 mph) are anticipated across southern NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. Despite the strong winds, confidence in sufficiently low RH remains limited, and fuel status remains poor (ERCs below the 50th percentile for early February) across this region. This lends low confidence in the overall fire weather threat - though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently west of the coast of southern CA/Baja California will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the Southwest, central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Saturday - Southwest Texas... The approach of the upper wave (and attendant jet max) will promote strong cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains by D3/Saturday afternoon. Westerly surface winds between 25-35 mph (gusting near/above 45 mph) are anticipated across southern NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. Despite the strong winds, confidence in sufficiently low RH remains limited, and fuel status remains poor (ERCs below the 50th percentile for early February) across this region. This lends low confidence in the overall fire weather threat - though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently west of the coast of southern CA/Baja California will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the Southwest, central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Saturday - Southwest Texas... The approach of the upper wave (and attendant jet max) will promote strong cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains by D3/Saturday afternoon. Westerly surface winds between 25-35 mph (gusting near/above 45 mph) are anticipated across southern NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. Despite the strong winds, confidence in sufficiently low RH remains limited, and fuel status remains poor (ERCs below the 50th percentile for early February) across this region. This lends low confidence in the overall fire weather threat - though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently west of the coast of southern CA/Baja California will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the Southwest, central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Saturday - Southwest Texas... The approach of the upper wave (and attendant jet max) will promote strong cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains by D3/Saturday afternoon. Westerly surface winds between 25-35 mph (gusting near/above 45 mph) are anticipated across southern NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. Despite the strong winds, confidence in sufficiently low RH remains limited, and fuel status remains poor (ERCs below the 50th percentile for early February) across this region. This lends low confidence in the overall fire weather threat - though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently west of the coast of southern CA/Baja California will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the Southwest, central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Saturday - Southwest Texas... The approach of the upper wave (and attendant jet max) will promote strong cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains by D3/Saturday afternoon. Westerly surface winds between 25-35 mph (gusting near/above 45 mph) are anticipated across southern NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. Despite the strong winds, confidence in sufficiently low RH remains limited, and fuel status remains poor (ERCs below the 50th percentile for early February) across this region. This lends low confidence in the overall fire weather threat - though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the western CONUS through the period. This evolution will be aided by the eastward progression of a strong jet streak moving across the Baja Peninsula and northwest Mexico. Cooling midlevel temperatures/steepening lapse rates accompanying the large-scale trough will continue overspreading CA today, supporting sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning within eastward-spreading bands of convection given strong midlevel height falls/deep-layer ascent. Farther south and east, strong ascent in the left exit region of the upper jet will also support isolated lightning potential across portions of the Four Corners region given weak instability. While sufficient surface-based instability may develop across portions of the southern CA coastline behind the initial round of convection into this afternoon, veering low-level flow and related decreases in deep-layer shear should limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the western CONUS through the period. This evolution will be aided by the eastward progression of a strong jet streak moving across the Baja Peninsula and northwest Mexico. Cooling midlevel temperatures/steepening lapse rates accompanying the large-scale trough will continue overspreading CA today, supporting sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning within eastward-spreading bands of convection given strong midlevel height falls/deep-layer ascent. Farther south and east, strong ascent in the left exit region of the upper jet will also support isolated lightning potential across portions of the Four Corners region given weak instability. While sufficient surface-based instability may develop across portions of the southern CA coastline behind the initial round of convection into this afternoon, veering low-level flow and related decreases in deep-layer shear should limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the western CONUS through the period. This evolution will be aided by the eastward progression of a strong jet streak moving across the Baja Peninsula and northwest Mexico. Cooling midlevel temperatures/steepening lapse rates accompanying the large-scale trough will continue overspreading CA today, supporting sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning within eastward-spreading bands of convection given strong midlevel height falls/deep-layer ascent. Farther south and east, strong ascent in the left exit region of the upper jet will also support isolated lightning potential across portions of the Four Corners region given weak instability. While sufficient surface-based instability may develop across portions of the southern CA coastline behind the initial round of convection into this afternoon, veering low-level flow and related decreases in deep-layer shear should limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the western CONUS through the period. This evolution will be aided by the eastward progression of a strong jet streak moving across the Baja Peninsula and northwest Mexico. Cooling midlevel temperatures/steepening lapse rates accompanying the large-scale trough will continue overspreading CA today, supporting sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning within eastward-spreading bands of convection given strong midlevel height falls/deep-layer ascent. Farther south and east, strong ascent in the left exit region of the upper jet will also support isolated lightning potential across portions of the Four Corners region given weak instability. While sufficient surface-based instability may develop across portions of the southern CA coastline behind the initial round of convection into this afternoon, veering low-level flow and related decreases in deep-layer shear should limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the western CONUS through the period. This evolution will be aided by the eastward progression of a strong jet streak moving across the Baja Peninsula and northwest Mexico. Cooling midlevel temperatures/steepening lapse rates accompanying the large-scale trough will continue overspreading CA today, supporting sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning within eastward-spreading bands of convection given strong midlevel height falls/deep-layer ascent. Farther south and east, strong ascent in the left exit region of the upper jet will also support isolated lightning potential across portions of the Four Corners region given weak instability. While sufficient surface-based instability may develop across portions of the southern CA coastline behind the initial round of convection into this afternoon, veering low-level flow and related decreases in deep-layer shear should limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the western CONUS through the period. This evolution will be aided by the eastward progression of a strong jet streak moving across the Baja Peninsula and northwest Mexico. Cooling midlevel temperatures/steepening lapse rates accompanying the large-scale trough will continue overspreading CA today, supporting sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning within eastward-spreading bands of convection given strong midlevel height falls/deep-layer ascent. Farther south and east, strong ascent in the left exit region of the upper jet will also support isolated lightning potential across portions of the Four Corners region given weak instability. While sufficient surface-based instability may develop across portions of the southern CA coastline behind the initial round of convection into this afternoon, veering low-level flow and related decreases in deep-layer shear should limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Widespread winds near 20 mph remain likely across southwest TX tomorrow, but marginally dry conditions (RH between 20-30%) and limited fuel status continue to be mitigating factors of a more robust fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around 20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds, the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Widespread winds near 20 mph remain likely across southwest TX tomorrow, but marginally dry conditions (RH between 20-30%) and limited fuel status continue to be mitigating factors of a more robust fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around 20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds, the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Widespread winds near 20 mph remain likely across southwest TX tomorrow, but marginally dry conditions (RH between 20-30%) and limited fuel status continue to be mitigating factors of a more robust fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around 20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds, the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Widespread winds near 20 mph remain likely across southwest TX tomorrow, but marginally dry conditions (RH between 20-30%) and limited fuel status continue to be mitigating factors of a more robust fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around 20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds, the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Widespread winds near 20 mph remain likely across southwest TX tomorrow, but marginally dry conditions (RH between 20-30%) and limited fuel status continue to be mitigating factors of a more robust fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around 20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds, the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more