Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN IDAHO AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A few locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of western and northern Idaho into western Montana, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds are the expected hazards. ...Parts of ID into western MT... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low and associated trough along the West Coast. This mid- to upper-level feature will move southeastward into northern CA later today. Increasing large-scale ascent to the northeast of this low will support scattered thunderstorm development from northern NV into western ID, with more isolated storms possible near a surface front extending eastward across west-central MT. Despite very modest low-level moisture across the region, steep lapse rates owing primarily to cold mid-level temperatures, will yield weak buoyancy by mid afternoon (below 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Long hodographs in combination with the weak instability may result in a couple of transient supercell structures. A localized threat of marginally severe hail (generally in the 0.75-1.25 inch range) and gusty winds of 50-60 mph could accompany the stronger storms. Elsewhere, a mid-level ridge building over the Great Plains and large-scale mid-level trough/low over the East will influence conditions in those regions. ..Smith.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN IDAHO AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A few locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of western and northern Idaho into western Montana, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds are the expected hazards. ...Parts of ID into western MT... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low and associated trough along the West Coast. This mid- to upper-level feature will move southeastward into northern CA later today. Increasing large-scale ascent to the northeast of this low will support scattered thunderstorm development from northern NV into western ID, with more isolated storms possible near a surface front extending eastward across west-central MT. Despite very modest low-level moisture across the region, steep lapse rates owing primarily to cold mid-level temperatures, will yield weak buoyancy by mid afternoon (below 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Long hodographs in combination with the weak instability may result in a couple of transient supercell structures. A localized threat of marginally severe hail (generally in the 0.75-1.25 inch range) and gusty winds of 50-60 mph could accompany the stronger storms. Elsewhere, a mid-level ridge building over the Great Plains and large-scale mid-level trough/low over the East will influence conditions in those regions. ..Smith.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN IDAHO AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A few locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of western and northern Idaho into western Montana, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds are the expected hazards. ...Parts of ID into western MT... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low and associated trough along the West Coast. This mid- to upper-level feature will move southeastward into northern CA later today. Increasing large-scale ascent to the northeast of this low will support scattered thunderstorm development from northern NV into western ID, with more isolated storms possible near a surface front extending eastward across west-central MT. Despite very modest low-level moisture across the region, steep lapse rates owing primarily to cold mid-level temperatures, will yield weak buoyancy by mid afternoon (below 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Long hodographs in combination with the weak instability may result in a couple of transient supercell structures. A localized threat of marginally severe hail (generally in the 0.75-1.25 inch range) and gusty winds of 50-60 mph could accompany the stronger storms. Elsewhere, a mid-level ridge building over the Great Plains and large-scale mid-level trough/low over the East will influence conditions in those regions. ..Smith.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN IDAHO AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A few locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of western and northern Idaho into western Montana, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds are the expected hazards. ...Parts of ID into western MT... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low and associated trough along the West Coast. This mid- to upper-level feature will move southeastward into northern CA later today. Increasing large-scale ascent to the northeast of this low will support scattered thunderstorm development from northern NV into western ID, with more isolated storms possible near a surface front extending eastward across west-central MT. Despite very modest low-level moisture across the region, steep lapse rates owing primarily to cold mid-level temperatures, will yield weak buoyancy by mid afternoon (below 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Long hodographs in combination with the weak instability may result in a couple of transient supercell structures. A localized threat of marginally severe hail (generally in the 0.75-1.25 inch range) and gusty winds of 50-60 mph could accompany the stronger storms. Elsewhere, a mid-level ridge building over the Great Plains and large-scale mid-level trough/low over the East will influence conditions in those regions. ..Smith.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN IDAHO AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A few locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of western and northern Idaho into western Montana, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds are the expected hazards. ...Parts of ID into western MT... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low and associated trough along the West Coast. This mid- to upper-level feature will move southeastward into northern CA later today. Increasing large-scale ascent to the northeast of this low will support scattered thunderstorm development from northern NV into western ID, with more isolated storms possible near a surface front extending eastward across west-central MT. Despite very modest low-level moisture across the region, steep lapse rates owing primarily to cold mid-level temperatures, will yield weak buoyancy by mid afternoon (below 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Long hodographs in combination with the weak instability may result in a couple of transient supercell structures. A localized threat of marginally severe hail (generally in the 0.75-1.25 inch range) and gusty winds of 50-60 mph could accompany the stronger storms. Elsewhere, a mid-level ridge building over the Great Plains and large-scale mid-level trough/low over the East will influence conditions in those regions. ..Smith.. 04/04/2024 Read more

MD 0375 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0375 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Areas affected...portions of New Hampshire and Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 040543Z - 041145Z SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow with rates near 1-2 inches per hour will lift northward across western and coastal Maine and New Hampshire over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...A large area of precipitation is ongoing across New England tonight within an area of strong warm advection aloft on the east side of a midlevel upper low centered over the Great Lakes vicinity. A band of strong 850 mb frontogenesis will lift north with time into early morning, providing ascent through a deep saturated layer aloft. Near-surface temperatures may hover close to freezing across portions of the region, though most of the vertical temperatures profile will remain sub-freezing supporting snow. Given strong forcing and a dendritic growth layer around 2.5-3 kft deep, snowfall rates are expected to increase to 1-2 inches per hour over the next 1-2 hours and persist into early morning. ..Leitman.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX... LAT...LON 43917200 45177103 45417073 45366958 45006815 44776781 44376770 43916795 42707003 42837111 42897205 43347236 43917200 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to the Ark-La-Tex, with a somewhat narrow moisture corridor located in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. The severe threat may remain relatively isolated due to issues concerning weak instability and limited large-scale ascent. ...Monday/Day 5 and Tuesday/Day 6... On Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest, as mid-level flow becomes established across the south-central U.S. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the eastern two-thirds of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The models continue to suggest that a large cluster of thunderstorms will develop from northeast Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas Monday evening. Instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a severe threat. This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely location for convective development Tuesday afternoon would be in parts of north and east Texas, where an MCS may develop. This large cluster could move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night. A moist warm sector combined with strong deep-layer shear would support a severe threat, with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... On Wednesday and Thursday, uncertainty increases concerning potential outcomes. The medium-range models have an upper-level system over the south-central U.S., and show potential for a large MCS over the western or northern Gulf of Mexico. This scenario would likely result in a over-turned airmass in the Gulf Coast states, which would limit severe potential. However, at this range, considering the large spread among solutions, predictability is quite low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to the Ark-La-Tex, with a somewhat narrow moisture corridor located in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. The severe threat may remain relatively isolated due to issues concerning weak instability and limited large-scale ascent. ...Monday/Day 5 and Tuesday/Day 6... On Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest, as mid-level flow becomes established across the south-central U.S. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the eastern two-thirds of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The models continue to suggest that a large cluster of thunderstorms will develop from northeast Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas Monday evening. Instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a severe threat. This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely location for convective development Tuesday afternoon would be in parts of north and east Texas, where an MCS may develop. This large cluster could move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night. A moist warm sector combined with strong deep-layer shear would support a severe threat, with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... On Wednesday and Thursday, uncertainty increases concerning potential outcomes. The medium-range models have an upper-level system over the south-central U.S., and show potential for a large MCS over the western or northern Gulf of Mexico. This scenario would likely result in a over-turned airmass in the Gulf Coast states, which would limit severe potential. However, at this range, considering the large spread among solutions, predictability is quite low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to the Ark-La-Tex, with a somewhat narrow moisture corridor located in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. The severe threat may remain relatively isolated due to issues concerning weak instability and limited large-scale ascent. ...Monday/Day 5 and Tuesday/Day 6... On Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest, as mid-level flow becomes established across the south-central U.S. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the eastern two-thirds of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The models continue to suggest that a large cluster of thunderstorms will develop from northeast Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas Monday evening. Instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a severe threat. This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely location for convective development Tuesday afternoon would be in parts of north and east Texas, where an MCS may develop. This large cluster could move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night. A moist warm sector combined with strong deep-layer shear would support a severe threat, with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... On Wednesday and Thursday, uncertainty increases concerning potential outcomes. The medium-range models have an upper-level system over the south-central U.S., and show potential for a large MCS over the western or northern Gulf of Mexico. This scenario would likely result in a over-turned airmass in the Gulf Coast states, which would limit severe potential. However, at this range, considering the large spread among solutions, predictability is quite low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to the Ark-La-Tex, with a somewhat narrow moisture corridor located in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. The severe threat may remain relatively isolated due to issues concerning weak instability and limited large-scale ascent. ...Monday/Day 5 and Tuesday/Day 6... On Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest, as mid-level flow becomes established across the south-central U.S. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the eastern two-thirds of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The models continue to suggest that a large cluster of thunderstorms will develop from northeast Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas Monday evening. Instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a severe threat. This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely location for convective development Tuesday afternoon would be in parts of north and east Texas, where an MCS may develop. This large cluster could move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night. A moist warm sector combined with strong deep-layer shear would support a severe threat, with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... On Wednesday and Thursday, uncertainty increases concerning potential outcomes. The medium-range models have an upper-level system over the south-central U.S., and show potential for a large MCS over the western or northern Gulf of Mexico. This scenario would likely result in a over-turned airmass in the Gulf Coast states, which would limit severe potential. However, at this range, considering the large spread among solutions, predictability is quite low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to the Ark-La-Tex, with a somewhat narrow moisture corridor located in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. The severe threat may remain relatively isolated due to issues concerning weak instability and limited large-scale ascent. ...Monday/Day 5 and Tuesday/Day 6... On Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest, as mid-level flow becomes established across the south-central U.S. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the eastern two-thirds of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The models continue to suggest that a large cluster of thunderstorms will develop from northeast Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas Monday evening. Instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a severe threat. This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely location for convective development Tuesday afternoon would be in parts of north and east Texas, where an MCS may develop. This large cluster could move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night. A moist warm sector combined with strong deep-layer shear would support a severe threat, with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... On Wednesday and Thursday, uncertainty increases concerning potential outcomes. The medium-range models have an upper-level system over the south-central U.S., and show potential for a large MCS over the western or northern Gulf of Mexico. This scenario would likely result in a over-turned airmass in the Gulf Coast states, which would limit severe potential. However, at this range, considering the large spread among solutions, predictability is quite low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and wind, will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move across the central Rockies on Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated mid-level trough will become negatively tilted, as a 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture advection will occur in the southern and central Plains. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints near the moist axis are forecast to increase into the 50s F across Oklahoma, and 40s F across Kansas and Nebraska. Weak instability should be in place near this axis by late afternoon, with thunderstorms developing from western Nebraska into central Kansas. This convection is forecast to move across the central Plains during the early evening, developing southward into Oklahoma. As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves through the central Plains Saturday afternoon, 0-6 km shear will increase into the 50 to 70 knot range along much of the moist axis. This, combined with strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates, will likely support the development of an isolated severe threat. However, limited moisture return and weak instability should keep the severe threat marginal. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. Any severe threat could persist into the mid evening, as convection moves toward the Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more