Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be low for the remainder of tonight. ...ID into western MT... Convection will continue this evening from ID into parts of western MT, in association with a deep upper-level trough over the western CONUS. While deep-layer shear will continue to be supportive of some storm organization, convection thus far has struggled to attain severe intensity, and remaining weak instability is expected to diminish with time tonight. However, a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and small hail remains possible. ..Dean.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be low for the remainder of tonight. ...ID into western MT... Convection will continue this evening from ID into parts of western MT, in association with a deep upper-level trough over the western CONUS. While deep-layer shear will continue to be supportive of some storm organization, convection thus far has struggled to attain severe intensity, and remaining weak instability is expected to diminish with time tonight. However, a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and small hail remains possible. ..Dean.. 04/05/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 4 23:18:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 4 23:18:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0376 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
Mesoscale Discussion 0376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Areas affected...parts of north central Nevada into the Sawtooth Mountains vicinity of south central Idaho Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041911Z - 042145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...One or two supercells may gradually develop within a narrow pre-frontal corridor, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind by 3-5 PM MDT. While the need for a watch is not currently anticipated, trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis suggests that more rapid boundary-layer destabilization is now underway, particularly in a narrow pre-frontal corridor west of Twin Falls toward the Sawtooth Mountains vicinity, west of Sun Valley. This is occurring in response to continuing insolation and low-level warm advection, beneath cool mid-levels which may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE increasing in excess of 500 J/kg within the next few hours. As this occurs, models indicate that frontogenetic forcing for ascent will also strengthen along this corridor, downstream of a developing frontal wave migrating northeastward out of the Great Basin. An area of intensifying thunderstorm development is already ongoing to the southwest of Owyhee NV, and this activity seems to continue to gradually strengthen and organize through 21-23Z, while propagating north-northeastward within a strongly sheared environment beneath an 80-100+ kt south-southwesterly 300 mb jet. With increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, one or two supercell structures may evolve, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... LAT...LON 44881413 43561430 41031651 41331720 42281650 42961602 43791576 44881413 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern and central High Plains on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, where fuels have become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread. A fire-weather outbreak is possible over parts of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday, with the greatest potential over portions of the Texas Panhandle. ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday - Southern/Central High Plains... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a 100-kt 500-mb jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday. At the same time, a related lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline advances eastward across the southern Plains -- which will be overtaken by a Pacific front. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind the front (extending into the strong flow aloft), coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will yield 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and 10-15 percent RH. Some of the strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle, and given increasingly dry/loaded fuels here, a fire-weather outbreak is possible. The primary limiting factor will be relatively cool surface temperatures behind the Pacific front, though the strong winds and low RH could compensate for this. Thereafter, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains, and given continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern and central High Plains on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, where fuels have become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread. A fire-weather outbreak is possible over parts of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday, with the greatest potential over portions of the Texas Panhandle. ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday - Southern/Central High Plains... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a 100-kt 500-mb jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday. At the same time, a related lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline advances eastward across the southern Plains -- which will be overtaken by a Pacific front. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind the front (extending into the strong flow aloft), coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will yield 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and 10-15 percent RH. Some of the strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle, and given increasingly dry/loaded fuels here, a fire-weather outbreak is possible. The primary limiting factor will be relatively cool surface temperatures behind the Pacific front, though the strong winds and low RH could compensate for this. Thereafter, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains, and given continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern and central High Plains on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, where fuels have become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread. A fire-weather outbreak is possible over parts of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday, with the greatest potential over portions of the Texas Panhandle. ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday - Southern/Central High Plains... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a 100-kt 500-mb jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday. At the same time, a related lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline advances eastward across the southern Plains -- which will be overtaken by a Pacific front. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind the front (extending into the strong flow aloft), coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will yield 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and 10-15 percent RH. Some of the strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle, and given increasingly dry/loaded fuels here, a fire-weather outbreak is possible. The primary limiting factor will be relatively cool surface temperatures behind the Pacific front, though the strong winds and low RH could compensate for this. Thereafter, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains, and given continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern and central High Plains on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, where fuels have become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread. A fire-weather outbreak is possible over parts of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday, with the greatest potential over portions of the Texas Panhandle. ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday - Southern/Central High Plains... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a 100-kt 500-mb jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday. At the same time, a related lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline advances eastward across the southern Plains -- which will be overtaken by a Pacific front. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind the front (extending into the strong flow aloft), coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will yield 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and 10-15 percent RH. Some of the strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle, and given increasingly dry/loaded fuels here, a fire-weather outbreak is possible. The primary limiting factor will be relatively cool surface temperatures behind the Pacific front, though the strong winds and low RH could compensate for this. Thereafter, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains, and given continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern and central High Plains on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, where fuels have become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread. A fire-weather outbreak is possible over parts of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday, with the greatest potential over portions of the Texas Panhandle. ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday - Southern/Central High Plains... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a 100-kt 500-mb jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday. At the same time, a related lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline advances eastward across the southern Plains -- which will be overtaken by a Pacific front. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind the front (extending into the strong flow aloft), coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will yield 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and 10-15 percent RH. Some of the strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle, and given increasingly dry/loaded fuels here, a fire-weather outbreak is possible. The primary limiting factor will be relatively cool surface temperatures behind the Pacific front, though the strong winds and low RH could compensate for this. Thereafter, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains, and given continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern and central High Plains on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, where fuels have become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread. A fire-weather outbreak is possible over parts of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday, with the greatest potential over portions of the Texas Panhandle. ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday - Southern/Central High Plains... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a 100-kt 500-mb jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday. At the same time, a related lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline advances eastward across the southern Plains -- which will be overtaken by a Pacific front. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind the front (extending into the strong flow aloft), coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will yield 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and 10-15 percent RH. Some of the strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle, and given increasingly dry/loaded fuels here, a fire-weather outbreak is possible. The primary limiting factor will be relatively cool surface temperatures behind the Pacific front, though the strong winds and low RH could compensate for this. Thereafter, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains, and given continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern and central High Plains on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, where fuels have become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread. A fire-weather outbreak is possible over parts of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday, with the greatest potential over portions of the Texas Panhandle. ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday - Southern/Central High Plains... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a 100-kt 500-mb jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday. At the same time, a related lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline advances eastward across the southern Plains -- which will be overtaken by a Pacific front. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind the front (extending into the strong flow aloft), coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will yield 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and 10-15 percent RH. Some of the strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle, and given increasingly dry/loaded fuels here, a fire-weather outbreak is possible. The primary limiting factor will be relatively cool surface temperatures behind the Pacific front, though the strong winds and low RH could compensate for this. Thereafter, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains, and given continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE IDAHO VICINITY INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Discussion... Current forecast areas and reasoning remain reflective of ongoing convective evolution, such that no appreciable changes are needed at this time. For additional information, please refer to SWOMCD 376. ..Goss.. 04/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE IDAHO VICINITY INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Discussion... Current forecast areas and reasoning remain reflective of ongoing convective evolution, such that no appreciable changes are needed at this time. For additional information, please refer to SWOMCD 376. ..Goss.. 04/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE IDAHO VICINITY INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Discussion... Current forecast areas and reasoning remain reflective of ongoing convective evolution, such that no appreciable changes are needed at this time. For additional information, please refer to SWOMCD 376. ..Goss.. 04/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE IDAHO VICINITY INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Discussion... Current forecast areas and reasoning remain reflective of ongoing convective evolution, such that no appreciable changes are needed at this time. For additional information, please refer to SWOMCD 376. ..Goss.. 04/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE IDAHO VICINITY INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Discussion... Current forecast areas and reasoning remain reflective of ongoing convective evolution, such that no appreciable changes are needed at this time. For additional information, please refer to SWOMCD 376. ..Goss.. 04/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE IDAHO VICINITY INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Discussion... Current forecast areas and reasoning remain reflective of ongoing convective evolution, such that no appreciable changes are needed at this time. For additional information, please refer to SWOMCD 376. ..Goss.. 04/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE IDAHO VICINITY INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana. ...Discussion... Current forecast areas and reasoning remain reflective of ongoing convective evolution, such that no appreciable changes are needed at this time. For additional information, please refer to SWOMCD 376. ..Goss.. 04/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Cold midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Out west, there will be some potential for a strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating along and east-through-south of the frontal segments. Still, there will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments/expansions were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly northward in northeastern CO, and slightly eastward in western KS and the TX/OK Panhandles. Confidence in Critical-caliber wind/RH is high enough to warrant these adjustments, given modest/increasingly receptive fuels. As noted in the previous forecast discussion below, localized extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible over parts of eastern CO; however, fuels do not appear supportive of such highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong mid-level trough will move slowly across the Inter-Mountain West. As this occurs, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest and High Plains with a strong lee cyclone developing in eastern Wyoming and eventually into eastern Colorado. As this occurs, 25+ mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of the High Plains. In addition, a very dry environment will be present with relative humidity in the single digits. The worst of the conditions are expected in eastern Colorado where sustained winds may exceed 30 mph. Fortunately, much of the area which will experience these very dry and very windy conditions saw recent rain/snowfall which has improved moisture quality somewhat. Several days of drying has certainly dried fine fuels sufficiently for a fire weather threat, but this recent precipitation will definitely be a limiting factor to a more widespread fire weather threat that may otherwise be realized with the expected winds and low relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more