Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. Multiple periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather will be possible. ...D3-Monday - through D4-Tuesday Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Ahead of an ejecting western wave D3 - Monday/D4 - Tuesday, a surface low will deepen across far western Texas, with increasing flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients resulting in an increase in surface winds across southern New Mexico into far western Texas starting on Monday afternoon. A very dry air mass will remain in place across this region with potential for single digit relative humidity. While there is some spread in model forecast winds, with some indication of winds just below Critical speeds, multiple days of windy/dry conditions have led to fuels across southwestern New Mexico into western Texas in the 75th percentile for dryness. This supports inclusion of a 70 percent delineation and maintaining the broader 40 percent region on D3 Monday. Dry and windy conditions will continue on D4 Tuesday, though temperatures will drop quickly behind a southward moving cold front. The 40 percent delineation was shifted slight south to account for shorter duration of fire weather conditions across southeastern New Mexico with the speed of the front. ...D7-Friday through D8-Saturday Southern High Plains... Another western trough may bring a return of fire weather concerns across the southern High Plains. Confidence in including areas at this time is low, given model spread in coverage of potential Critical conditions. This will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. Multiple periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather will be possible. ...D3-Monday - through D4-Tuesday Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Ahead of an ejecting western wave D3 - Monday/D4 - Tuesday, a surface low will deepen across far western Texas, with increasing flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients resulting in an increase in surface winds across southern New Mexico into far western Texas starting on Monday afternoon. A very dry air mass will remain in place across this region with potential for single digit relative humidity. While there is some spread in model forecast winds, with some indication of winds just below Critical speeds, multiple days of windy/dry conditions have led to fuels across southwestern New Mexico into western Texas in the 75th percentile for dryness. This supports inclusion of a 70 percent delineation and maintaining the broader 40 percent region on D3 Monday. Dry and windy conditions will continue on D4 Tuesday, though temperatures will drop quickly behind a southward moving cold front. The 40 percent delineation was shifted slight south to account for shorter duration of fire weather conditions across southeastern New Mexico with the speed of the front. ...D7-Friday through D8-Saturday Southern High Plains... Another western trough may bring a return of fire weather concerns across the southern High Plains. Confidence in including areas at this time is low, given model spread in coverage of potential Critical conditions. This will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. Multiple periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather will be possible. ...D3-Monday - through D4-Tuesday Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Ahead of an ejecting western wave D3 - Monday/D4 - Tuesday, a surface low will deepen across far western Texas, with increasing flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients resulting in an increase in surface winds across southern New Mexico into far western Texas starting on Monday afternoon. A very dry air mass will remain in place across this region with potential for single digit relative humidity. While there is some spread in model forecast winds, with some indication of winds just below Critical speeds, multiple days of windy/dry conditions have led to fuels across southwestern New Mexico into western Texas in the 75th percentile for dryness. This supports inclusion of a 70 percent delineation and maintaining the broader 40 percent region on D3 Monday. Dry and windy conditions will continue on D4 Tuesday, though temperatures will drop quickly behind a southward moving cold front. The 40 percent delineation was shifted slight south to account for shorter duration of fire weather conditions across southeastern New Mexico with the speed of the front. ...D7-Friday through D8-Saturday Southern High Plains... Another western trough may bring a return of fire weather concerns across the southern High Plains. Confidence in including areas at this time is low, given model spread in coverage of potential Critical conditions. This will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. Multiple periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather will be possible. ...D3-Monday - through D4-Tuesday Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Ahead of an ejecting western wave D3 - Monday/D4 - Tuesday, a surface low will deepen across far western Texas, with increasing flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients resulting in an increase in surface winds across southern New Mexico into far western Texas starting on Monday afternoon. A very dry air mass will remain in place across this region with potential for single digit relative humidity. While there is some spread in model forecast winds, with some indication of winds just below Critical speeds, multiple days of windy/dry conditions have led to fuels across southwestern New Mexico into western Texas in the 75th percentile for dryness. This supports inclusion of a 70 percent delineation and maintaining the broader 40 percent region on D3 Monday. Dry and windy conditions will continue on D4 Tuesday, though temperatures will drop quickly behind a southward moving cold front. The 40 percent delineation was shifted slight south to account for shorter duration of fire weather conditions across southeastern New Mexico with the speed of the front. ...D7-Friday through D8-Saturday Southern High Plains... Another western trough may bring a return of fire weather concerns across the southern High Plains. Confidence in including areas at this time is low, given model spread in coverage of potential Critical conditions. This will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. Multiple periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather will be possible. ...D3-Monday - through D4-Tuesday Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Ahead of an ejecting western wave D3 - Monday/D4 - Tuesday, a surface low will deepen across far western Texas, with increasing flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients resulting in an increase in surface winds across southern New Mexico into far western Texas starting on Monday afternoon. A very dry air mass will remain in place across this region with potential for single digit relative humidity. While there is some spread in model forecast winds, with some indication of winds just below Critical speeds, multiple days of windy/dry conditions have led to fuels across southwestern New Mexico into western Texas in the 75th percentile for dryness. This supports inclusion of a 70 percent delineation and maintaining the broader 40 percent region on D3 Monday. Dry and windy conditions will continue on D4 Tuesday, though temperatures will drop quickly behind a southward moving cold front. The 40 percent delineation was shifted slight south to account for shorter duration of fire weather conditions across southeastern New Mexico with the speed of the front. ...D7-Friday through D8-Saturday Southern High Plains... Another western trough may bring a return of fire weather concerns across the southern High Plains. Confidence in including areas at this time is low, given model spread in coverage of potential Critical conditions. This will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. Multiple periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather will be possible. ...D3-Monday - through D4-Tuesday Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Ahead of an ejecting western wave D3 - Monday/D4 - Tuesday, a surface low will deepen across far western Texas, with increasing flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients resulting in an increase in surface winds across southern New Mexico into far western Texas starting on Monday afternoon. A very dry air mass will remain in place across this region with potential for single digit relative humidity. While there is some spread in model forecast winds, with some indication of winds just below Critical speeds, multiple days of windy/dry conditions have led to fuels across southwestern New Mexico into western Texas in the 75th percentile for dryness. This supports inclusion of a 70 percent delineation and maintaining the broader 40 percent region on D3 Monday. Dry and windy conditions will continue on D4 Tuesday, though temperatures will drop quickly behind a southward moving cold front. The 40 percent delineation was shifted slight south to account for shorter duration of fire weather conditions across southeastern New Mexico with the speed of the front. ...D7-Friday through D8-Saturday Southern High Plains... Another western trough may bring a return of fire weather concerns across the southern High Plains. Confidence in including areas at this time is low, given model spread in coverage of potential Critical conditions. This will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. Multiple periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather will be possible. ...D3-Monday - through D4-Tuesday Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Ahead of an ejecting western wave D3 - Monday/D4 - Tuesday, a surface low will deepen across far western Texas, with increasing flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients resulting in an increase in surface winds across southern New Mexico into far western Texas starting on Monday afternoon. A very dry air mass will remain in place across this region with potential for single digit relative humidity. While there is some spread in model forecast winds, with some indication of winds just below Critical speeds, multiple days of windy/dry conditions have led to fuels across southwestern New Mexico into western Texas in the 75th percentile for dryness. This supports inclusion of a 70 percent delineation and maintaining the broader 40 percent region on D3 Monday. Dry and windy conditions will continue on D4 Tuesday, though temperatures will drop quickly behind a southward moving cold front. The 40 percent delineation was shifted slight south to account for shorter duration of fire weather conditions across southeastern New Mexico with the speed of the front. ...D7-Friday through D8-Saturday Southern High Plains... Another western trough may bring a return of fire weather concerns across the southern High Plains. Confidence in including areas at this time is low, given model spread in coverage of potential Critical conditions. This will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. Multiple periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather will be possible. ...D3-Monday - through D4-Tuesday Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Ahead of an ejecting western wave D3 - Monday/D4 - Tuesday, a surface low will deepen across far western Texas, with increasing flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients resulting in an increase in surface winds across southern New Mexico into far western Texas starting on Monday afternoon. A very dry air mass will remain in place across this region with potential for single digit relative humidity. While there is some spread in model forecast winds, with some indication of winds just below Critical speeds, multiple days of windy/dry conditions have led to fuels across southwestern New Mexico into western Texas in the 75th percentile for dryness. This supports inclusion of a 70 percent delineation and maintaining the broader 40 percent region on D3 Monday. Dry and windy conditions will continue on D4 Tuesday, though temperatures will drop quickly behind a southward moving cold front. The 40 percent delineation was shifted slight south to account for shorter duration of fire weather conditions across southeastern New Mexico with the speed of the front. ...D7-Friday through D8-Saturday Southern High Plains... Another western trough may bring a return of fire weather concerns across the southern High Plains. Confidence in including areas at this time is low, given model spread in coverage of potential Critical conditions. This will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0088 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE HLC TO 35 SW EAR TO 10 SSE LBF TO 50 WNW LBF TO 5 E AIA. ..LYONS..04/06/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC089-123-141-183-062240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL MITCHELL OSBORNE SMITH NEC001-005-019-035-041-047-059-061-069-073-075-077-079-081-083- 093-099-111-113-117-121-125-129-137-143-163-169-175-181-185- 062240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARTHUR BUFFALO CLAY CUSTER DAWSON FILLMORE FRANKLIN GARDEN GOSPER GRANT GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS PHELPS POLK SHERMAN THAYER Read more

WW 0089 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 89 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/06/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-017-019-027-029-035-041-049-053-061-073-079-105-111-113- 115-117-127-143-149-155-157-159-161-169-173-191-197-201- 062240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLAY CLOUD COWLEY DICKINSON ELK ELLSWORTH GEARY GREENWOOD HARVEY LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO REPUBLIC RICE RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK SUMNER WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON NEC023-067-095-109-151-159-062240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER GAGE JEFFERSON LANCASTER SALINE SEWARD Read more

MD 0378 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Areas affected...much of central Oklahoma into far north-central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061932Z - 062130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat may develop with any storms that manage to mature and sustain themselves ahead of the dryline this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus (albeit with limited vertical development) have steadily been increasing in coverage along and immediately ahead of a dryline that continues to rapidly mix eastward across central OK into far northern TX. Preceding the dryline is a boundary layer characterized by shallow moisture, which is overspread by a very dry 700-300 mb layer and modest lapse rates (i.e. 6-7 C/km range). As such, buoyancy is quite limited, with SBCAPE expected to peak somewhere between 500-1000 J/kg. Surface observations show slight veering of the surface winds immediately preceding the dryline, which is reducing convergence and limiting convective development up to this point. Nonetheless, increased convergence and heating ahead of the dryline should support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Somewhat curved low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation suggests that multicell and transient supercell structures are possible with the more sustained storms that are not inhibited by mid-level dry air entrainment. These storms could produce a couple of instances of severe wind gusts or hail. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34019809 36499795 36969763 37009720 36899670 36339629 35499612 34539621 33879635 33709671 33659742 34019809 Read more

MD 0377 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Areas affected...parts of southern Nebraska...northern and central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061819Z - 062045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually develop and intensify this afternoon, eventually posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. By 4-6 PM CDT, this may include increasing potential for supercells, east of Hill City into the Concordia vicinity and southward toward Emporia. DISCUSSION...One short wave perturbation already appears to have emerged from the base of larger-scale mid/upper troughing progressing out of the Great Basin/Southwest, and is now pivoting north-northeast of the Front Range. In its wake, an intense mid-level jet streak currently nosing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity may undergo subtle weakening, but still appears likely to remain in excess of 90 kt around 500 mb, while taking on more of a west-southwesterly component as it propagates toward the Russell/Hutchinson vicinity of central Kansas through 21-23Z. Stronger forcing for ascent is forecast to become focused along the warm frontal zone associated with a deep occluding cyclone to the lee of the Front Range, roughly near the western Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity during the next few hours. This appears likely to coincide with increasing destabilization, associated with a deepening mixed boundary-layer to the south of the front. Warm sector boundary-layer moistening will remain on lower margins for vigorous convective development, but lower/mid 40s along the warm front may be sufficient for CAPE up to 500 J/kg, beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures (near -20C around 500 mb). Scattered thunderstorms are already beginning to initiate across parts of the high plains. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, forcing for ascent may gradually focus stronger, organizing convection near the triple point of the occluding cyclone, north-northeast of the Hill City vicinity, before this spreads eastward through late afternoon. By 21-23Z, it appears that additional, more discrete storms (including evolving supercells) may gradually begin to initiate southward along the dryline toward the Wichita area, within a narrow corridor of better boundary-layer moistening (including surface dew points in the upper 40s/near 50F). ..Kerr/Guyer.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 39339911 39710042 39950128 40790103 40749951 40359770 39689640 38309642 38259761 39069826 39339911 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... The D2 Critical was expanded further south into southwestern Texas with this update. Hi-res guidance from the HREF indicates a 70-80% likelihood of Critical conditions extending into this region. In addition, the Elevated was expanded slightly eastward into western Oklahoma to account for the likelihood of Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in both of the updated regions have experienced rapid drying in the last 24-48 hours and will support the risk of fire spread. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Although the fire weather environment won't be as extreme compared to Saturday, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated again Sunday across much of the central to southern High Plains. The lee cyclone that is beginning to gradually deepen early Saturday morning along the High Plains is forecast to quickly occlude overnight Saturday into Sunday. This low will drift across NE, reaching the MO River by Sunday evening. The slow departure of the low, combined with a lingering belt of strong mid-level flow, will maintain 15-25 mph winds across the High Plains and southern Plains. By Sunday afternoon, much of this region will have been under a westerly downslope flow regime for 12-24 hours, which will greatly limit overnight RH recovery and promote afternoon RH minimums between 10-20%. A recent uptick in wildfire activity over the past 24 hours indicates that fuels are receptive, and very dry/windy conditions on Saturday will further prime fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Confidence in sustained critical conditions remains highest across eastern NM to western TX where flow emanating off the central NM terrain will see the greatest RH reductions to 10-15%, co-located with 20-25 mph winds. Some uncertainty is noted regarding the northern and eastern extent of the fire weather risk area. Across the central Plains, guidance is fairly inconsistent in the timing and placement of a weak, southward migrating cold front. Across eastern OK, AR, and MO, a dry air mass will likely overspread the region with breezy winds; however, there is poor ensemble consensus regarding RH minimums and maximum wind speeds. The potential for elevated conditions is noted and further refinements are possible as these details become more clear. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... The D2 Critical was expanded further south into southwestern Texas with this update. Hi-res guidance from the HREF indicates a 70-80% likelihood of Critical conditions extending into this region. In addition, the Elevated was expanded slightly eastward into western Oklahoma to account for the likelihood of Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in both of the updated regions have experienced rapid drying in the last 24-48 hours and will support the risk of fire spread. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Although the fire weather environment won't be as extreme compared to Saturday, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated again Sunday across much of the central to southern High Plains. The lee cyclone that is beginning to gradually deepen early Saturday morning along the High Plains is forecast to quickly occlude overnight Saturday into Sunday. This low will drift across NE, reaching the MO River by Sunday evening. The slow departure of the low, combined with a lingering belt of strong mid-level flow, will maintain 15-25 mph winds across the High Plains and southern Plains. By Sunday afternoon, much of this region will have been under a westerly downslope flow regime for 12-24 hours, which will greatly limit overnight RH recovery and promote afternoon RH minimums between 10-20%. A recent uptick in wildfire activity over the past 24 hours indicates that fuels are receptive, and very dry/windy conditions on Saturday will further prime fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Confidence in sustained critical conditions remains highest across eastern NM to western TX where flow emanating off the central NM terrain will see the greatest RH reductions to 10-15%, co-located with 20-25 mph winds. Some uncertainty is noted regarding the northern and eastern extent of the fire weather risk area. Across the central Plains, guidance is fairly inconsistent in the timing and placement of a weak, southward migrating cold front. Across eastern OK, AR, and MO, a dry air mass will likely overspread the region with breezy winds; however, there is poor ensemble consensus regarding RH minimums and maximum wind speeds. The potential for elevated conditions is noted and further refinements are possible as these details become more clear. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... The D2 Critical was expanded further south into southwestern Texas with this update. Hi-res guidance from the HREF indicates a 70-80% likelihood of Critical conditions extending into this region. In addition, the Elevated was expanded slightly eastward into western Oklahoma to account for the likelihood of Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in both of the updated regions have experienced rapid drying in the last 24-48 hours and will support the risk of fire spread. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Although the fire weather environment won't be as extreme compared to Saturday, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated again Sunday across much of the central to southern High Plains. The lee cyclone that is beginning to gradually deepen early Saturday morning along the High Plains is forecast to quickly occlude overnight Saturday into Sunday. This low will drift across NE, reaching the MO River by Sunday evening. The slow departure of the low, combined with a lingering belt of strong mid-level flow, will maintain 15-25 mph winds across the High Plains and southern Plains. By Sunday afternoon, much of this region will have been under a westerly downslope flow regime for 12-24 hours, which will greatly limit overnight RH recovery and promote afternoon RH minimums between 10-20%. A recent uptick in wildfire activity over the past 24 hours indicates that fuels are receptive, and very dry/windy conditions on Saturday will further prime fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Confidence in sustained critical conditions remains highest across eastern NM to western TX where flow emanating off the central NM terrain will see the greatest RH reductions to 10-15%, co-located with 20-25 mph winds. Some uncertainty is noted regarding the northern and eastern extent of the fire weather risk area. Across the central Plains, guidance is fairly inconsistent in the timing and placement of a weak, southward migrating cold front. Across eastern OK, AR, and MO, a dry air mass will likely overspread the region with breezy winds; however, there is poor ensemble consensus regarding RH minimums and maximum wind speeds. The potential for elevated conditions is noted and further refinements are possible as these details become more clear. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... The D2 Critical was expanded further south into southwestern Texas with this update. Hi-res guidance from the HREF indicates a 70-80% likelihood of Critical conditions extending into this region. In addition, the Elevated was expanded slightly eastward into western Oklahoma to account for the likelihood of Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in both of the updated regions have experienced rapid drying in the last 24-48 hours and will support the risk of fire spread. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Although the fire weather environment won't be as extreme compared to Saturday, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated again Sunday across much of the central to southern High Plains. The lee cyclone that is beginning to gradually deepen early Saturday morning along the High Plains is forecast to quickly occlude overnight Saturday into Sunday. This low will drift across NE, reaching the MO River by Sunday evening. The slow departure of the low, combined with a lingering belt of strong mid-level flow, will maintain 15-25 mph winds across the High Plains and southern Plains. By Sunday afternoon, much of this region will have been under a westerly downslope flow regime for 12-24 hours, which will greatly limit overnight RH recovery and promote afternoon RH minimums between 10-20%. A recent uptick in wildfire activity over the past 24 hours indicates that fuels are receptive, and very dry/windy conditions on Saturday will further prime fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Confidence in sustained critical conditions remains highest across eastern NM to western TX where flow emanating off the central NM terrain will see the greatest RH reductions to 10-15%, co-located with 20-25 mph winds. Some uncertainty is noted regarding the northern and eastern extent of the fire weather risk area. Across the central Plains, guidance is fairly inconsistent in the timing and placement of a weak, southward migrating cold front. Across eastern OK, AR, and MO, a dry air mass will likely overspread the region with breezy winds; however, there is poor ensemble consensus regarding RH minimums and maximum wind speeds. The potential for elevated conditions is noted and further refinements are possible as these details become more clear. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... The D2 Critical was expanded further south into southwestern Texas with this update. Hi-res guidance from the HREF indicates a 70-80% likelihood of Critical conditions extending into this region. In addition, the Elevated was expanded slightly eastward into western Oklahoma to account for the likelihood of Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in both of the updated regions have experienced rapid drying in the last 24-48 hours and will support the risk of fire spread. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Although the fire weather environment won't be as extreme compared to Saturday, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated again Sunday across much of the central to southern High Plains. The lee cyclone that is beginning to gradually deepen early Saturday morning along the High Plains is forecast to quickly occlude overnight Saturday into Sunday. This low will drift across NE, reaching the MO River by Sunday evening. The slow departure of the low, combined with a lingering belt of strong mid-level flow, will maintain 15-25 mph winds across the High Plains and southern Plains. By Sunday afternoon, much of this region will have been under a westerly downslope flow regime for 12-24 hours, which will greatly limit overnight RH recovery and promote afternoon RH minimums between 10-20%. A recent uptick in wildfire activity over the past 24 hours indicates that fuels are receptive, and very dry/windy conditions on Saturday will further prime fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Confidence in sustained critical conditions remains highest across eastern NM to western TX where flow emanating off the central NM terrain will see the greatest RH reductions to 10-15%, co-located with 20-25 mph winds. Some uncertainty is noted regarding the northern and eastern extent of the fire weather risk area. Across the central Plains, guidance is fairly inconsistent in the timing and placement of a weak, southward migrating cold front. Across eastern OK, AR, and MO, a dry air mass will likely overspread the region with breezy winds; however, there is poor ensemble consensus regarding RH minimums and maximum wind speeds. The potential for elevated conditions is noted and further refinements are possible as these details become more clear. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... The D2 Critical was expanded further south into southwestern Texas with this update. Hi-res guidance from the HREF indicates a 70-80% likelihood of Critical conditions extending into this region. In addition, the Elevated was expanded slightly eastward into western Oklahoma to account for the likelihood of Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in both of the updated regions have experienced rapid drying in the last 24-48 hours and will support the risk of fire spread. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Although the fire weather environment won't be as extreme compared to Saturday, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated again Sunday across much of the central to southern High Plains. The lee cyclone that is beginning to gradually deepen early Saturday morning along the High Plains is forecast to quickly occlude overnight Saturday into Sunday. This low will drift across NE, reaching the MO River by Sunday evening. The slow departure of the low, combined with a lingering belt of strong mid-level flow, will maintain 15-25 mph winds across the High Plains and southern Plains. By Sunday afternoon, much of this region will have been under a westerly downslope flow regime for 12-24 hours, which will greatly limit overnight RH recovery and promote afternoon RH minimums between 10-20%. A recent uptick in wildfire activity over the past 24 hours indicates that fuels are receptive, and very dry/windy conditions on Saturday will further prime fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Confidence in sustained critical conditions remains highest across eastern NM to western TX where flow emanating off the central NM terrain will see the greatest RH reductions to 10-15%, co-located with 20-25 mph winds. Some uncertainty is noted regarding the northern and eastern extent of the fire weather risk area. Across the central Plains, guidance is fairly inconsistent in the timing and placement of a weak, southward migrating cold front. Across eastern OK, AR, and MO, a dry air mass will likely overspread the region with breezy winds; however, there is poor ensemble consensus regarding RH minimums and maximum wind speeds. The potential for elevated conditions is noted and further refinements are possible as these details become more clear. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... The D2 Critical was expanded further south into southwestern Texas with this update. Hi-res guidance from the HREF indicates a 70-80% likelihood of Critical conditions extending into this region. In addition, the Elevated was expanded slightly eastward into western Oklahoma to account for the likelihood of Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in both of the updated regions have experienced rapid drying in the last 24-48 hours and will support the risk of fire spread. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Although the fire weather environment won't be as extreme compared to Saturday, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated again Sunday across much of the central to southern High Plains. The lee cyclone that is beginning to gradually deepen early Saturday morning along the High Plains is forecast to quickly occlude overnight Saturday into Sunday. This low will drift across NE, reaching the MO River by Sunday evening. The slow departure of the low, combined with a lingering belt of strong mid-level flow, will maintain 15-25 mph winds across the High Plains and southern Plains. By Sunday afternoon, much of this region will have been under a westerly downslope flow regime for 12-24 hours, which will greatly limit overnight RH recovery and promote afternoon RH minimums between 10-20%. A recent uptick in wildfire activity over the past 24 hours indicates that fuels are receptive, and very dry/windy conditions on Saturday will further prime fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Confidence in sustained critical conditions remains highest across eastern NM to western TX where flow emanating off the central NM terrain will see the greatest RH reductions to 10-15%, co-located with 20-25 mph winds. Some uncertainty is noted regarding the northern and eastern extent of the fire weather risk area. Across the central Plains, guidance is fairly inconsistent in the timing and placement of a weak, southward migrating cold front. Across eastern OK, AR, and MO, a dry air mass will likely overspread the region with breezy winds; however, there is poor ensemble consensus regarding RH minimums and maximum wind speeds. The potential for elevated conditions is noted and further refinements are possible as these details become more clear. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... The D2 Critical was expanded further south into southwestern Texas with this update. Hi-res guidance from the HREF indicates a 70-80% likelihood of Critical conditions extending into this region. In addition, the Elevated was expanded slightly eastward into western Oklahoma to account for the likelihood of Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in both of the updated regions have experienced rapid drying in the last 24-48 hours and will support the risk of fire spread. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Although the fire weather environment won't be as extreme compared to Saturday, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated again Sunday across much of the central to southern High Plains. The lee cyclone that is beginning to gradually deepen early Saturday morning along the High Plains is forecast to quickly occlude overnight Saturday into Sunday. This low will drift across NE, reaching the MO River by Sunday evening. The slow departure of the low, combined with a lingering belt of strong mid-level flow, will maintain 15-25 mph winds across the High Plains and southern Plains. By Sunday afternoon, much of this region will have been under a westerly downslope flow regime for 12-24 hours, which will greatly limit overnight RH recovery and promote afternoon RH minimums between 10-20%. A recent uptick in wildfire activity over the past 24 hours indicates that fuels are receptive, and very dry/windy conditions on Saturday will further prime fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Confidence in sustained critical conditions remains highest across eastern NM to western TX where flow emanating off the central NM terrain will see the greatest RH reductions to 10-15%, co-located with 20-25 mph winds. Some uncertainty is noted regarding the northern and eastern extent of the fire weather risk area. Across the central Plains, guidance is fairly inconsistent in the timing and placement of a weak, southward migrating cold front. Across eastern OK, AR, and MO, a dry air mass will likely overspread the region with breezy winds; however, there is poor ensemble consensus regarding RH minimums and maximum wind speeds. The potential for elevated conditions is noted and further refinements are possible as these details become more clear. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more