Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Southern to Central High Plains... Today will be the first of two days of widespread critical fire weather conditions - particularly across the southern High Plains. Early-morning surface observations are showing poor overnight RH recovery (10-30% as of 06 UTC) across southeast NM and west/southwest TX to eastern CO. No appreciable moisture return will maintain this unseasonably dry air mass (dewpoints near the 10th percentile for early April) over the next two days. Meanwhile across the West Coast, a strong upper-level trough is noted in water-vapor imagery moving onto the CA coast. Slow, but steady pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as this feature shifts east, with a more robust low-level mass response anticipated through the day. This will promote widespread sustained winds between 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) across the southern to central High Plains. Latest ensemble guidance suggests RH values will fall into the 10-15% range for most locations, though localized areas of single-digit RH is possible. This will most likely occur over areas that can maintain mostly clear skies through mid/late afternoon, allowing for stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing. Confidence in the coverage of sub-10% RH is limited based on spread in recent guidance, but recent high-res solutions suggests this may be most likely over east-central CO. Consequently, pockets of extremely critical conditions are possible with more widespread, sustained critical conditions expected. Recent fuel analyses show that 1 and 10-hour fuels are either currently receptive or should see sufficient drying to support the fire weather threat. ...Wyoming into Montana... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across eastern to northeast WY and southeast MT this afternoon. Surface pressure falls across the northern High Plains should promote a strengthening pressure gradient and widespread 15-25 mph winds with afternoon RH minimums in the 15-25% range. Additionally, a modest influx of mid-level moisture coupled with broad scale ascent may support a few isolated thunderstorms. Given the dry, deeply-mixed boundary layers over the region and PWAT values well below 0.5 inch, a few dry thunderstorms are possible. ...North Dakota... Sustained winds between 20-25 mph appear likely across much of central ND this afternoon. Dry conditions were noted yesterday across this region, and limited moisture return, coupled with diurnal heating, should promote RH reductions into the 20-30% range this afternoon. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected, but modest fuel receptiveness precludes higher risk highlights. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Southern to Central High Plains... Today will be the first of two days of widespread critical fire weather conditions - particularly across the southern High Plains. Early-morning surface observations are showing poor overnight RH recovery (10-30% as of 06 UTC) across southeast NM and west/southwest TX to eastern CO. No appreciable moisture return will maintain this unseasonably dry air mass (dewpoints near the 10th percentile for early April) over the next two days. Meanwhile across the West Coast, a strong upper-level trough is noted in water-vapor imagery moving onto the CA coast. Slow, but steady pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as this feature shifts east, with a more robust low-level mass response anticipated through the day. This will promote widespread sustained winds between 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) across the southern to central High Plains. Latest ensemble guidance suggests RH values will fall into the 10-15% range for most locations, though localized areas of single-digit RH is possible. This will most likely occur over areas that can maintain mostly clear skies through mid/late afternoon, allowing for stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing. Confidence in the coverage of sub-10% RH is limited based on spread in recent guidance, but recent high-res solutions suggests this may be most likely over east-central CO. Consequently, pockets of extremely critical conditions are possible with more widespread, sustained critical conditions expected. Recent fuel analyses show that 1 and 10-hour fuels are either currently receptive or should see sufficient drying to support the fire weather threat. ...Wyoming into Montana... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across eastern to northeast WY and southeast MT this afternoon. Surface pressure falls across the northern High Plains should promote a strengthening pressure gradient and widespread 15-25 mph winds with afternoon RH minimums in the 15-25% range. Additionally, a modest influx of mid-level moisture coupled with broad scale ascent may support a few isolated thunderstorms. Given the dry, deeply-mixed boundary layers over the region and PWAT values well below 0.5 inch, a few dry thunderstorms are possible. ...North Dakota... Sustained winds between 20-25 mph appear likely across much of central ND this afternoon. Dry conditions were noted yesterday across this region, and limited moisture return, coupled with diurnal heating, should promote RH reductions into the 20-30% range this afternoon. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected, but modest fuel receptiveness precludes higher risk highlights. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Southern to Central High Plains... Today will be the first of two days of widespread critical fire weather conditions - particularly across the southern High Plains. Early-morning surface observations are showing poor overnight RH recovery (10-30% as of 06 UTC) across southeast NM and west/southwest TX to eastern CO. No appreciable moisture return will maintain this unseasonably dry air mass (dewpoints near the 10th percentile for early April) over the next two days. Meanwhile across the West Coast, a strong upper-level trough is noted in water-vapor imagery moving onto the CA coast. Slow, but steady pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as this feature shifts east, with a more robust low-level mass response anticipated through the day. This will promote widespread sustained winds between 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) across the southern to central High Plains. Latest ensemble guidance suggests RH values will fall into the 10-15% range for most locations, though localized areas of single-digit RH is possible. This will most likely occur over areas that can maintain mostly clear skies through mid/late afternoon, allowing for stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing. Confidence in the coverage of sub-10% RH is limited based on spread in recent guidance, but recent high-res solutions suggests this may be most likely over east-central CO. Consequently, pockets of extremely critical conditions are possible with more widespread, sustained critical conditions expected. Recent fuel analyses show that 1 and 10-hour fuels are either currently receptive or should see sufficient drying to support the fire weather threat. ...Wyoming into Montana... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across eastern to northeast WY and southeast MT this afternoon. Surface pressure falls across the northern High Plains should promote a strengthening pressure gradient and widespread 15-25 mph winds with afternoon RH minimums in the 15-25% range. Additionally, a modest influx of mid-level moisture coupled with broad scale ascent may support a few isolated thunderstorms. Given the dry, deeply-mixed boundary layers over the region and PWAT values well below 0.5 inch, a few dry thunderstorms are possible. ...North Dakota... Sustained winds between 20-25 mph appear likely across much of central ND this afternoon. Dry conditions were noted yesterday across this region, and limited moisture return, coupled with diurnal heating, should promote RH reductions into the 20-30% range this afternoon. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected, but modest fuel receptiveness precludes higher risk highlights. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Southern to Central High Plains... Today will be the first of two days of widespread critical fire weather conditions - particularly across the southern High Plains. Early-morning surface observations are showing poor overnight RH recovery (10-30% as of 06 UTC) across southeast NM and west/southwest TX to eastern CO. No appreciable moisture return will maintain this unseasonably dry air mass (dewpoints near the 10th percentile for early April) over the next two days. Meanwhile across the West Coast, a strong upper-level trough is noted in water-vapor imagery moving onto the CA coast. Slow, but steady pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as this feature shifts east, with a more robust low-level mass response anticipated through the day. This will promote widespread sustained winds between 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) across the southern to central High Plains. Latest ensemble guidance suggests RH values will fall into the 10-15% range for most locations, though localized areas of single-digit RH is possible. This will most likely occur over areas that can maintain mostly clear skies through mid/late afternoon, allowing for stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing. Confidence in the coverage of sub-10% RH is limited based on spread in recent guidance, but recent high-res solutions suggests this may be most likely over east-central CO. Consequently, pockets of extremely critical conditions are possible with more widespread, sustained critical conditions expected. Recent fuel analyses show that 1 and 10-hour fuels are either currently receptive or should see sufficient drying to support the fire weather threat. ...Wyoming into Montana... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across eastern to northeast WY and southeast MT this afternoon. Surface pressure falls across the northern High Plains should promote a strengthening pressure gradient and widespread 15-25 mph winds with afternoon RH minimums in the 15-25% range. Additionally, a modest influx of mid-level moisture coupled with broad scale ascent may support a few isolated thunderstorms. Given the dry, deeply-mixed boundary layers over the region and PWAT values well below 0.5 inch, a few dry thunderstorms are possible. ...North Dakota... Sustained winds between 20-25 mph appear likely across much of central ND this afternoon. Dry conditions were noted yesterday across this region, and limited moisture return, coupled with diurnal heating, should promote RH reductions into the 20-30% range this afternoon. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected, but modest fuel receptiveness precludes higher risk highlights. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Southern to Central High Plains... Today will be the first of two days of widespread critical fire weather conditions - particularly across the southern High Plains. Early-morning surface observations are showing poor overnight RH recovery (10-30% as of 06 UTC) across southeast NM and west/southwest TX to eastern CO. No appreciable moisture return will maintain this unseasonably dry air mass (dewpoints near the 10th percentile for early April) over the next two days. Meanwhile across the West Coast, a strong upper-level trough is noted in water-vapor imagery moving onto the CA coast. Slow, but steady pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as this feature shifts east, with a more robust low-level mass response anticipated through the day. This will promote widespread sustained winds between 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) across the southern to central High Plains. Latest ensemble guidance suggests RH values will fall into the 10-15% range for most locations, though localized areas of single-digit RH is possible. This will most likely occur over areas that can maintain mostly clear skies through mid/late afternoon, allowing for stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing. Confidence in the coverage of sub-10% RH is limited based on spread in recent guidance, but recent high-res solutions suggests this may be most likely over east-central CO. Consequently, pockets of extremely critical conditions are possible with more widespread, sustained critical conditions expected. Recent fuel analyses show that 1 and 10-hour fuels are either currently receptive or should see sufficient drying to support the fire weather threat. ...Wyoming into Montana... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across eastern to northeast WY and southeast MT this afternoon. Surface pressure falls across the northern High Plains should promote a strengthening pressure gradient and widespread 15-25 mph winds with afternoon RH minimums in the 15-25% range. Additionally, a modest influx of mid-level moisture coupled with broad scale ascent may support a few isolated thunderstorms. Given the dry, deeply-mixed boundary layers over the region and PWAT values well below 0.5 inch, a few dry thunderstorms are possible. ...North Dakota... Sustained winds between 20-25 mph appear likely across much of central ND this afternoon. Dry conditions were noted yesterday across this region, and limited moisture return, coupled with diurnal heating, should promote RH reductions into the 20-30% range this afternoon. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected, but modest fuel receptiveness precludes higher risk highlights. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Southern to Central High Plains... Today will be the first of two days of widespread critical fire weather conditions - particularly across the southern High Plains. Early-morning surface observations are showing poor overnight RH recovery (10-30% as of 06 UTC) across southeast NM and west/southwest TX to eastern CO. No appreciable moisture return will maintain this unseasonably dry air mass (dewpoints near the 10th percentile for early April) over the next two days. Meanwhile across the West Coast, a strong upper-level trough is noted in water-vapor imagery moving onto the CA coast. Slow, but steady pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as this feature shifts east, with a more robust low-level mass response anticipated through the day. This will promote widespread sustained winds between 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) across the southern to central High Plains. Latest ensemble guidance suggests RH values will fall into the 10-15% range for most locations, though localized areas of single-digit RH is possible. This will most likely occur over areas that can maintain mostly clear skies through mid/late afternoon, allowing for stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing. Confidence in the coverage of sub-10% RH is limited based on spread in recent guidance, but recent high-res solutions suggests this may be most likely over east-central CO. Consequently, pockets of extremely critical conditions are possible with more widespread, sustained critical conditions expected. Recent fuel analyses show that 1 and 10-hour fuels are either currently receptive or should see sufficient drying to support the fire weather threat. ...Wyoming into Montana... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across eastern to northeast WY and southeast MT this afternoon. Surface pressure falls across the northern High Plains should promote a strengthening pressure gradient and widespread 15-25 mph winds with afternoon RH minimums in the 15-25% range. Additionally, a modest influx of mid-level moisture coupled with broad scale ascent may support a few isolated thunderstorms. Given the dry, deeply-mixed boundary layers over the region and PWAT values well below 0.5 inch, a few dry thunderstorms are possible. ...North Dakota... Sustained winds between 20-25 mph appear likely across much of central ND this afternoon. Dry conditions were noted yesterday across this region, and limited moisture return, coupled with diurnal heating, should promote RH reductions into the 20-30% range this afternoon. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected, but modest fuel receptiveness precludes higher risk highlights. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move through the central Rockies Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated trough will become negatively tilted, moving northeastward through the central Plains during the day. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northward across western Nebraska, as a cold front advances eastward through the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to increase into the 50s F along a narrow corridor from northeast Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and central Nebraska. Large-scale ascent will be strong as the trough moves into the central Plains. This, combined with low-level convergence ahead of the front and surface heating, will result in the development of a line of strong thunderstorms along and near the moist axis during the afternoon. This line will move eastward across the central and southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the moist axis early Saturday evening suggest that the storms will be low-topped, and that there will be enough instability for strong updrafts. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range from east-central Kansas into central Nebraska. As the system moves into the central Plains, 0-3 km lapse are forecast to peak near 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear increasing to around 80 knots. This should be sufficient for severe gusts with the stronger parts of the line. In addition, cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates from 850 mb to 600 mb, should support a threat for isolated large hail. Concerning the potential for a severe threat, there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move through the central Rockies Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated trough will become negatively tilted, moving northeastward through the central Plains during the day. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northward across western Nebraska, as a cold front advances eastward through the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to increase into the 50s F along a narrow corridor from northeast Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and central Nebraska. Large-scale ascent will be strong as the trough moves into the central Plains. This, combined with low-level convergence ahead of the front and surface heating, will result in the development of a line of strong thunderstorms along and near the moist axis during the afternoon. This line will move eastward across the central and southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the moist axis early Saturday evening suggest that the storms will be low-topped, and that there will be enough instability for strong updrafts. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range from east-central Kansas into central Nebraska. As the system moves into the central Plains, 0-3 km lapse are forecast to peak near 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear increasing to around 80 knots. This should be sufficient for severe gusts with the stronger parts of the line. In addition, cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates from 850 mb to 600 mb, should support a threat for isolated large hail. Concerning the potential for a severe threat, there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move through the central Rockies Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated trough will become negatively tilted, moving northeastward through the central Plains during the day. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northward across western Nebraska, as a cold front advances eastward through the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to increase into the 50s F along a narrow corridor from northeast Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and central Nebraska. Large-scale ascent will be strong as the trough moves into the central Plains. This, combined with low-level convergence ahead of the front and surface heating, will result in the development of a line of strong thunderstorms along and near the moist axis during the afternoon. This line will move eastward across the central and southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the moist axis early Saturday evening suggest that the storms will be low-topped, and that there will be enough instability for strong updrafts. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range from east-central Kansas into central Nebraska. As the system moves into the central Plains, 0-3 km lapse are forecast to peak near 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear increasing to around 80 knots. This should be sufficient for severe gusts with the stronger parts of the line. In addition, cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates from 850 mb to 600 mb, should support a threat for isolated large hail. Concerning the potential for a severe threat, there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move through the central Rockies Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated trough will become negatively tilted, moving northeastward through the central Plains during the day. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northward across western Nebraska, as a cold front advances eastward through the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to increase into the 50s F along a narrow corridor from northeast Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and central Nebraska. Large-scale ascent will be strong as the trough moves into the central Plains. This, combined with low-level convergence ahead of the front and surface heating, will result in the development of a line of strong thunderstorms along and near the moist axis during the afternoon. This line will move eastward across the central and southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the moist axis early Saturday evening suggest that the storms will be low-topped, and that there will be enough instability for strong updrafts. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range from east-central Kansas into central Nebraska. As the system moves into the central Plains, 0-3 km lapse are forecast to peak near 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear increasing to around 80 knots. This should be sufficient for severe gusts with the stronger parts of the line. In addition, cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates from 850 mb to 600 mb, should support a threat for isolated large hail. Concerning the potential for a severe threat, there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move through the central Rockies Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated trough will become negatively tilted, moving northeastward through the central Plains during the day. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northward across western Nebraska, as a cold front advances eastward through the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to increase into the 50s F along a narrow corridor from northeast Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and central Nebraska. Large-scale ascent will be strong as the trough moves into the central Plains. This, combined with low-level convergence ahead of the front and surface heating, will result in the development of a line of strong thunderstorms along and near the moist axis during the afternoon. This line will move eastward across the central and southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the moist axis early Saturday evening suggest that the storms will be low-topped, and that there will be enough instability for strong updrafts. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range from east-central Kansas into central Nebraska. As the system moves into the central Plains, 0-3 km lapse are forecast to peak near 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear increasing to around 80 knots. This should be sufficient for severe gusts with the stronger parts of the line. In addition, cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates from 850 mb to 600 mb, should support a threat for isolated large hail. Concerning the potential for a severe threat, there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move through the central Rockies Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated trough will become negatively tilted, moving northeastward through the central Plains during the day. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northward across western Nebraska, as a cold front advances eastward through the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to increase into the 50s F along a narrow corridor from northeast Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and central Nebraska. Large-scale ascent will be strong as the trough moves into the central Plains. This, combined with low-level convergence ahead of the front and surface heating, will result in the development of a line of strong thunderstorms along and near the moist axis during the afternoon. This line will move eastward across the central and southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the moist axis early Saturday evening suggest that the storms will be low-topped, and that there will be enough instability for strong updrafts. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range from east-central Kansas into central Nebraska. As the system moves into the central Plains, 0-3 km lapse are forecast to peak near 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear increasing to around 80 knots. This should be sufficient for severe gusts with the stronger parts of the line. In addition, cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates from 850 mb to 600 mb, should support a threat for isolated large hail. Concerning the potential for a severe threat, there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today into tonight, with a basal mid/upper-level jet maximum forecast to impinge on the southern Rockies and eventually the southern High Plains by the end of the period. An expansive surface cyclone is forecast to consolidate across parts of the central/northern Rockies and High Plains through the period. Low-level moisture will remain sparse, but cold temperatures aloft and favorable ascent will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest, and also the northern Rockies and High Plains. Weak instability should generally limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of producing small hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of MT/WY. Across the East, dry and stable post-frontal conditions will generally limit thunderstorm potential, as a deep cyclone meanders near the northern New England coast. ..Dean/Moore.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today into tonight, with a basal mid/upper-level jet maximum forecast to impinge on the southern Rockies and eventually the southern High Plains by the end of the period. An expansive surface cyclone is forecast to consolidate across parts of the central/northern Rockies and High Plains through the period. Low-level moisture will remain sparse, but cold temperatures aloft and favorable ascent will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest, and also the northern Rockies and High Plains. Weak instability should generally limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of producing small hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of MT/WY. Across the East, dry and stable post-frontal conditions will generally limit thunderstorm potential, as a deep cyclone meanders near the northern New England coast. ..Dean/Moore.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today into tonight, with a basal mid/upper-level jet maximum forecast to impinge on the southern Rockies and eventually the southern High Plains by the end of the period. An expansive surface cyclone is forecast to consolidate across parts of the central/northern Rockies and High Plains through the period. Low-level moisture will remain sparse, but cold temperatures aloft and favorable ascent will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest, and also the northern Rockies and High Plains. Weak instability should generally limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of producing small hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of MT/WY. Across the East, dry and stable post-frontal conditions will generally limit thunderstorm potential, as a deep cyclone meanders near the northern New England coast. ..Dean/Moore.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today into tonight, with a basal mid/upper-level jet maximum forecast to impinge on the southern Rockies and eventually the southern High Plains by the end of the period. An expansive surface cyclone is forecast to consolidate across parts of the central/northern Rockies and High Plains through the period. Low-level moisture will remain sparse, but cold temperatures aloft and favorable ascent will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest, and also the northern Rockies and High Plains. Weak instability should generally limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of producing small hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of MT/WY. Across the East, dry and stable post-frontal conditions will generally limit thunderstorm potential, as a deep cyclone meanders near the northern New England coast. ..Dean/Moore.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today into tonight, with a basal mid/upper-level jet maximum forecast to impinge on the southern Rockies and eventually the southern High Plains by the end of the period. An expansive surface cyclone is forecast to consolidate across parts of the central/northern Rockies and High Plains through the period. Low-level moisture will remain sparse, but cold temperatures aloft and favorable ascent will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest, and also the northern Rockies and High Plains. Weak instability should generally limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of producing small hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of MT/WY. Across the East, dry and stable post-frontal conditions will generally limit thunderstorm potential, as a deep cyclone meanders near the northern New England coast. ..Dean/Moore.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today into tonight, with a basal mid/upper-level jet maximum forecast to impinge on the southern Rockies and eventually the southern High Plains by the end of the period. An expansive surface cyclone is forecast to consolidate across parts of the central/northern Rockies and High Plains through the period. Low-level moisture will remain sparse, but cold temperatures aloft and favorable ascent will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest, and also the northern Rockies and High Plains. Weak instability should generally limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of producing small hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of MT/WY. Across the East, dry and stable post-frontal conditions will generally limit thunderstorm potential, as a deep cyclone meanders near the northern New England coast. ..Dean/Moore.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be low for the remainder of tonight. ...ID into western MT... Convection will continue this evening from ID into parts of western MT, in association with a deep upper-level trough over the western CONUS. While deep-layer shear will continue to be supportive of some storm organization, convection thus far has struggled to attain severe intensity, and remaining weak instability is expected to diminish with time tonight. However, a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and small hail remains possible. ..Dean.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be low for the remainder of tonight. ...ID into western MT... Convection will continue this evening from ID into parts of western MT, in association with a deep upper-level trough over the western CONUS. While deep-layer shear will continue to be supportive of some storm organization, convection thus far has struggled to attain severe intensity, and remaining weak instability is expected to diminish with time tonight. However, a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and small hail remains possible. ..Dean.. 04/05/2024 Read more