SPC Apr 4, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and wind, will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move across the central Rockies on Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated mid-level trough will become negatively tilted, as a 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture advection will occur in the southern and central Plains. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints near the moist axis are forecast to increase into the 50s F across Oklahoma, and 40s F across Kansas and Nebraska. Weak instability should be in place near this axis by late afternoon, with thunderstorms developing from western Nebraska into central Kansas. This convection is forecast to move across the central Plains during the early evening, developing southward into Oklahoma. As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves through the central Plains Saturday afternoon, 0-6 km shear will increase into the 50 to 70 knot range along much of the moist axis. This, combined with strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates, will likely support the development of an isolated severe threat. However, limited moisture return and weak instability should keep the severe threat marginal. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. Any severe threat could persist into the mid evening, as convection moves toward the Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and wind, will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move across the central Rockies on Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated mid-level trough will become negatively tilted, as a 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture advection will occur in the southern and central Plains. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints near the moist axis are forecast to increase into the 50s F across Oklahoma, and 40s F across Kansas and Nebraska. Weak instability should be in place near this axis by late afternoon, with thunderstorms developing from western Nebraska into central Kansas. This convection is forecast to move across the central Plains during the early evening, developing southward into Oklahoma. As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves through the central Plains Saturday afternoon, 0-6 km shear will increase into the 50 to 70 knot range along much of the moist axis. This, combined with strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates, will likely support the development of an isolated severe threat. However, limited moisture return and weak instability should keep the severe threat marginal. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. Any severe threat could persist into the mid evening, as convection moves toward the Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and wind, will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move across the central Rockies on Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated mid-level trough will become negatively tilted, as a 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture advection will occur in the southern and central Plains. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints near the moist axis are forecast to increase into the 50s F across Oklahoma, and 40s F across Kansas and Nebraska. Weak instability should be in place near this axis by late afternoon, with thunderstorms developing from western Nebraska into central Kansas. This convection is forecast to move across the central Plains during the early evening, developing southward into Oklahoma. As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves through the central Plains Saturday afternoon, 0-6 km shear will increase into the 50 to 70 knot range along much of the moist axis. This, combined with strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates, will likely support the development of an isolated severe threat. However, limited moisture return and weak instability should keep the severe threat marginal. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. Any severe threat could persist into the mid evening, as convection moves toward the Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and wind, will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move across the central Rockies on Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated mid-level trough will become negatively tilted, as a 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture advection will occur in the southern and central Plains. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints near the moist axis are forecast to increase into the 50s F across Oklahoma, and 40s F across Kansas and Nebraska. Weak instability should be in place near this axis by late afternoon, with thunderstorms developing from western Nebraska into central Kansas. This convection is forecast to move across the central Plains during the early evening, developing southward into Oklahoma. As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves through the central Plains Saturday afternoon, 0-6 km shear will increase into the 50 to 70 knot range along much of the moist axis. This, combined with strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates, will likely support the development of an isolated severe threat. However, limited moisture return and weak instability should keep the severe threat marginal. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. Any severe threat could persist into the mid evening, as convection moves toward the Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong mid-level trough will move slowly across the Inter-Mountain West. As this occurs, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest and High Plains with a strong lee cyclone developing in eastern Wyoming and eventually into eastern Colorado. As this occurs, 25+ mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of the High Plains. In addition, a very dry environment will be present with relative humidity in the single digits. The worst of the conditions are expected in eastern Colorado where sustained winds may exceed 30 mph. Fortunately, much of the area which will experience these very dry and very windy conditions saw recent rain/snowfall which has improved moisture quality somewhat. Several days of drying has certainly dried fine fuels sufficiently for a fire weather threat, but this recent precipitation will definitely be a limiting factor to a more widespread fire weather threat that may otherwise be realized with the expected winds and low relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong mid-level trough will move slowly across the Inter-Mountain West. As this occurs, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest and High Plains with a strong lee cyclone developing in eastern Wyoming and eventually into eastern Colorado. As this occurs, 25+ mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of the High Plains. In addition, a very dry environment will be present with relative humidity in the single digits. The worst of the conditions are expected in eastern Colorado where sustained winds may exceed 30 mph. Fortunately, much of the area which will experience these very dry and very windy conditions saw recent rain/snowfall which has improved moisture quality somewhat. Several days of drying has certainly dried fine fuels sufficiently for a fire weather threat, but this recent precipitation will definitely be a limiting factor to a more widespread fire weather threat that may otherwise be realized with the expected winds and low relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong mid-level trough will move slowly across the Inter-Mountain West. As this occurs, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest and High Plains with a strong lee cyclone developing in eastern Wyoming and eventually into eastern Colorado. As this occurs, 25+ mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of the High Plains. In addition, a very dry environment will be present with relative humidity in the single digits. The worst of the conditions are expected in eastern Colorado where sustained winds may exceed 30 mph. Fortunately, much of the area which will experience these very dry and very windy conditions saw recent rain/snowfall which has improved moisture quality somewhat. Several days of drying has certainly dried fine fuels sufficiently for a fire weather threat, but this recent precipitation will definitely be a limiting factor to a more widespread fire weather threat that may otherwise be realized with the expected winds and low relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong mid-level trough will move slowly across the Inter-Mountain West. As this occurs, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest and High Plains with a strong lee cyclone developing in eastern Wyoming and eventually into eastern Colorado. As this occurs, 25+ mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of the High Plains. In addition, a very dry environment will be present with relative humidity in the single digits. The worst of the conditions are expected in eastern Colorado where sustained winds may exceed 30 mph. Fortunately, much of the area which will experience these very dry and very windy conditions saw recent rain/snowfall which has improved moisture quality somewhat. Several days of drying has certainly dried fine fuels sufficiently for a fire weather threat, but this recent precipitation will definitely be a limiting factor to a more widespread fire weather threat that may otherwise be realized with the expected winds and low relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward from the Atlantic Seaboard into the western Atlantic on Friday. In the western U.S., an upper-level low will move from northern California into the Pacific Northwest. As surface temperatures warm during the day across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, isolated thunderstorms are expected to form within the exit region of a mid-level jet. Scattered thunderstorms may also develop near an upper-level trough across parts of central and southern California, where lapse rates will be steep and large-scale ascent will be strong. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward from the Atlantic Seaboard into the western Atlantic on Friday. In the western U.S., an upper-level low will move from northern California into the Pacific Northwest. As surface temperatures warm during the day across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, isolated thunderstorms are expected to form within the exit region of a mid-level jet. Scattered thunderstorms may also develop near an upper-level trough across parts of central and southern California, where lapse rates will be steep and large-scale ascent will be strong. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward from the Atlantic Seaboard into the western Atlantic on Friday. In the western U.S., an upper-level low will move from northern California into the Pacific Northwest. As surface temperatures warm during the day across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, isolated thunderstorms are expected to form within the exit region of a mid-level jet. Scattered thunderstorms may also develop near an upper-level trough across parts of central and southern California, where lapse rates will be steep and large-scale ascent will be strong. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward from the Atlantic Seaboard into the western Atlantic on Friday. In the western U.S., an upper-level low will move from northern California into the Pacific Northwest. As surface temperatures warm during the day across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, isolated thunderstorms are expected to form within the exit region of a mid-level jet. Scattered thunderstorms may also develop near an upper-level trough across parts of central and southern California, where lapse rates will be steep and large-scale ascent will be strong. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the West Coast today. Ahead of this trough, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass in Arizona and the Great Basin. This will result in dry and breezy conditions across a broad region. However, fuels remain moist in this area and therefore, the fire weather threat will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the West Coast today. Ahead of this trough, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass in Arizona and the Great Basin. This will result in dry and breezy conditions across a broad region. However, fuels remain moist in this area and therefore, the fire weather threat will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the West Coast today. Ahead of this trough, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass in Arizona and the Great Basin. This will result in dry and breezy conditions across a broad region. However, fuels remain moist in this area and therefore, the fire weather threat will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the West Coast today. Ahead of this trough, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass in Arizona and the Great Basin. This will result in dry and breezy conditions across a broad region. However, fuels remain moist in this area and therefore, the fire weather threat will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across parts of western and northern Idaho into western Montana, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds are expected to be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level pattern will persist across the CONUS today, with deep troughs over the West and East, and a ridge over much of the Great Plains. Over the West, a broad surface low is forecast to extend from the Great Basin into the interior Northwest. Across the East, a surface low is forecast to move slowly northward off of the New England coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through south FL and the Gulf of Mexico. A relative dearth of low-level moisture will tend to limit instability across most of the CONUS, though scattered thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of the interior Northwest, in association with the amplifying upper trough. ...Parts of ID into western MT... Within the large-scale trough, an embedded mid/upper-level low will move southeastward into northern CA later today. Increasing large-scale ascent to the northeast of this low will support scattered thunderstorm development from northern NV into western ID, with more isolated storms possible near a surface front extending eastward across west-central MT. With very modest low-level moisture across the region, MLCAPE will struggle to reach 500 J/kg, but increasingly favorable wind profiles will support organized storm potential. Storms may struggle to reach severe intensity due to the weak instability, but a couple marginal supercells could evolve with time, posing a threat of isolated hail (generally in the 0.75-1.25 inch range) and gusty winds of 50-60 mph. ..Dean.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across parts of western and northern Idaho into western Montana, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds are expected to be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level pattern will persist across the CONUS today, with deep troughs over the West and East, and a ridge over much of the Great Plains. Over the West, a broad surface low is forecast to extend from the Great Basin into the interior Northwest. Across the East, a surface low is forecast to move slowly northward off of the New England coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through south FL and the Gulf of Mexico. A relative dearth of low-level moisture will tend to limit instability across most of the CONUS, though scattered thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of the interior Northwest, in association with the amplifying upper trough. ...Parts of ID into western MT... Within the large-scale trough, an embedded mid/upper-level low will move southeastward into northern CA later today. Increasing large-scale ascent to the northeast of this low will support scattered thunderstorm development from northern NV into western ID, with more isolated storms possible near a surface front extending eastward across west-central MT. With very modest low-level moisture across the region, MLCAPE will struggle to reach 500 J/kg, but increasingly favorable wind profiles will support organized storm potential. Storms may struggle to reach severe intensity due to the weak instability, but a couple marginal supercells could evolve with time, posing a threat of isolated hail (generally in the 0.75-1.25 inch range) and gusty winds of 50-60 mph. ..Dean.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across parts of western and northern Idaho into western Montana, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds are expected to be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level pattern will persist across the CONUS today, with deep troughs over the West and East, and a ridge over much of the Great Plains. Over the West, a broad surface low is forecast to extend from the Great Basin into the interior Northwest. Across the East, a surface low is forecast to move slowly northward off of the New England coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through south FL and the Gulf of Mexico. A relative dearth of low-level moisture will tend to limit instability across most of the CONUS, though scattered thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of the interior Northwest, in association with the amplifying upper trough. ...Parts of ID into western MT... Within the large-scale trough, an embedded mid/upper-level low will move southeastward into northern CA later today. Increasing large-scale ascent to the northeast of this low will support scattered thunderstorm development from northern NV into western ID, with more isolated storms possible near a surface front extending eastward across west-central MT. With very modest low-level moisture across the region, MLCAPE will struggle to reach 500 J/kg, but increasingly favorable wind profiles will support organized storm potential. Storms may struggle to reach severe intensity due to the weak instability, but a couple marginal supercells could evolve with time, posing a threat of isolated hail (generally in the 0.75-1.25 inch range) and gusty winds of 50-60 mph. ..Dean.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across parts of western and northern Idaho into western Montana, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds are expected to be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level pattern will persist across the CONUS today, with deep troughs over the West and East, and a ridge over much of the Great Plains. Over the West, a broad surface low is forecast to extend from the Great Basin into the interior Northwest. Across the East, a surface low is forecast to move slowly northward off of the New England coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through south FL and the Gulf of Mexico. A relative dearth of low-level moisture will tend to limit instability across most of the CONUS, though scattered thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of the interior Northwest, in association with the amplifying upper trough. ...Parts of ID into western MT... Within the large-scale trough, an embedded mid/upper-level low will move southeastward into northern CA later today. Increasing large-scale ascent to the northeast of this low will support scattered thunderstorm development from northern NV into western ID, with more isolated storms possible near a surface front extending eastward across west-central MT. With very modest low-level moisture across the region, MLCAPE will struggle to reach 500 J/kg, but increasingly favorable wind profiles will support organized storm potential. Storms may struggle to reach severe intensity due to the weak instability, but a couple marginal supercells could evolve with time, posing a threat of isolated hail (generally in the 0.75-1.25 inch range) and gusty winds of 50-60 mph. ..Dean.. 04/04/2024 Read more
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