Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across central Florida. ...Discussion... Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this update. The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for ongoing convection). ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across central Florida. ...Discussion... Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this update. The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for ongoing convection). ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across central Florida. ...Discussion... Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this update. The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for ongoing convection). ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across central Florida. ...Discussion... Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this update. The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for ongoing convection). ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across central Florida. ...Discussion... Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this update. The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for ongoing convection). ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across central Florida. ...Discussion... Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this update. The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for ongoing convection). ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across central Florida. ...Discussion... Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this update. The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for ongoing convection). ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across central Florida. ...Discussion... Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this update. The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for ongoing convection). ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across central Florida. ...Discussion... Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this update. The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for ongoing convection). ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across central Florida. ...Discussion... Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this update. The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for ongoing convection). ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across central Florida. ...Discussion... Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this update. The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for ongoing convection). ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across central Florida. ...Discussion... Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this update. The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for ongoing convection). ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across central Florida. ...Discussion... Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this update. The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for ongoing convection). ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across central Florida. ...Discussion... Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this update. The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for ongoing convection). ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across central Florida. ...Discussion... Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this update. The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for ongoing convection). ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

MD 0370 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 87... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0370 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Areas affected...North-central North Carolina into Southeast Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 87... Valid 031822Z - 031945Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 87 continues. SUMMARY...Discrete storms ahead of the cold front will pose the greatest risk for a tornado this afternoon. The northward extent of the risk will depend on how far north the warm front lifts. DISCUSSION...Currently, the mesoscale environment most supportive of a tornado exists near/south of the warm front in north-central North Carolina into southeast Virginia. In particular, a storm near the Granville/Vance County line has intensified in the last hour. This discrete storm will continue northeastward into an area of surface heating through anvil cirrus. The AKQ VAD shows a fairly large low-level hodograph. Discrete storms ahead of the surface font will pose the greatest short term tornado risk. Some northward lifting of the warm front is possible, but uncertain. Tornado risk along the front is also unclear, though the strongest activity has generally tended to be more discrete elements embedded within weaker precipitation. That said, some risk, though lower, will also exist along the front. ..Wendt.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 35847825 36027888 36227937 36497943 37217807 37517709 37807654 37697618 37157632 36507694 36007750 35877780 35847825 Read more

WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE GSO TO 30 ESE DAN TO 25 NW AVC TO 25 NW RIC TO 30 SSW DCA TO 5 WSW DCA. ..LYONS..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-032040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC009-011-019-035-037-039-041-045-047-032040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CAROLINE DORCHESTER QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER NCC065-069-077-083-127-131-145-181-185-032040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE HALIFAX NASH NORTHAMPTON Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach the western CONUS on Thursday with moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreading the Southwest and Great Basin. A deeply mixed airmass is expected in the region and therefore, this stronger mid-level flow is expected to mix to the surface. Widespread 25 to 40 mph winds are expected from northern Arizona into Nevada and Utah with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. Despite these very windy and dry conditions in the region, the fire weather threat will remain low due to moist fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach the western CONUS on Thursday with moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreading the Southwest and Great Basin. A deeply mixed airmass is expected in the region and therefore, this stronger mid-level flow is expected to mix to the surface. Widespread 25 to 40 mph winds are expected from northern Arizona into Nevada and Utah with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. Despite these very windy and dry conditions in the region, the fire weather threat will remain low due to moist fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach the western CONUS on Thursday with moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreading the Southwest and Great Basin. A deeply mixed airmass is expected in the region and therefore, this stronger mid-level flow is expected to mix to the surface. Widespread 25 to 40 mph winds are expected from northern Arizona into Nevada and Utah with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. Despite these very windy and dry conditions in the region, the fire weather threat will remain low due to moist fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more