Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong storms remain possible this evening near the southern Mid Atlantic coast. ...Southern Mid Atlantic coast region... While some decrease in storm intensity has been noted this evening across southeast Virginia, a strong storm or two remains possible across near-coastal areas of the southern Mid Atlantic, as a surface low and trailing cold front move across the region. Remaining convection will remain relatively low-topped, but gusty winds and potentially some hail remain possible before ongoing storms move offshore. ...South FL... Convection will continue to spread across parts of south FL this evening, in advance of a cold front. While rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg along/south of the front, warm midlevel temperatures and weak midlevel lapse rates are expected to limit storm intensity and organization through the remainder of tonight. However, a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds cannot entirely be ruled out, especially across the southwest peninsula. ...Parts of OR/ID... Scattered storms will likely persist tonight across parts of OR/ID, in association with a deep upper-level trough. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with the strongest storms, though weak instability is expected to limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong storms remain possible this evening near the southern Mid Atlantic coast. ...Southern Mid Atlantic coast region... While some decrease in storm intensity has been noted this evening across southeast Virginia, a strong storm or two remains possible across near-coastal areas of the southern Mid Atlantic, as a surface low and trailing cold front move across the region. Remaining convection will remain relatively low-topped, but gusty winds and potentially some hail remain possible before ongoing storms move offshore. ...South FL... Convection will continue to spread across parts of south FL this evening, in advance of a cold front. While rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg along/south of the front, warm midlevel temperatures and weak midlevel lapse rates are expected to limit storm intensity and organization through the remainder of tonight. However, a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds cannot entirely be ruled out, especially across the southwest peninsula. ...Parts of OR/ID... Scattered storms will likely persist tonight across parts of OR/ID, in association with a deep upper-level trough. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with the strongest storms, though weak instability is expected to limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 04/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A multi-day period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday, where fuels continue to dry out. ...Central/Southern High Plains - Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday... Following antecedent warming/drying beneath a large-scale ridge over the central/southern High Plains, deep/strong meridional flow will overspread the region on Day 3/Friday -- ahead of an amplifying western CONUS trough. This will promote an expansive north-south corridor of 25+ mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH across the central/southern High Plains. The strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over eastern CO, where the pressure gradient will be tightest. Given these warm/dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels, critical (locally high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected. On Day 4/Saturday, the large-scale trough and accompanying belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will eject east-northeastward across the central/southern High Plains. As a result, very strong westerly surface winds and low RH will overspread the region behind a surging dryline/Pacific front -- yielding high-end critical conditions. Thereafter, strong deep-layer westerlies will persist across the southern High Plains on Day 5/Sunday, favoring an additional day of elevated to critical conditions. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday, ahead of the next midlevel trough over the Southwest. 40-percent Critical probabilities were added for Day 6/Monday, when confidence in this scenario is slightly higher. However, additional/higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding trough evolution becomes more clear. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A multi-day period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday, where fuels continue to dry out. ...Central/Southern High Plains - Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday... Following antecedent warming/drying beneath a large-scale ridge over the central/southern High Plains, deep/strong meridional flow will overspread the region on Day 3/Friday -- ahead of an amplifying western CONUS trough. This will promote an expansive north-south corridor of 25+ mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH across the central/southern High Plains. The strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over eastern CO, where the pressure gradient will be tightest. Given these warm/dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels, critical (locally high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected. On Day 4/Saturday, the large-scale trough and accompanying belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will eject east-northeastward across the central/southern High Plains. As a result, very strong westerly surface winds and low RH will overspread the region behind a surging dryline/Pacific front -- yielding high-end critical conditions. Thereafter, strong deep-layer westerlies will persist across the southern High Plains on Day 5/Sunday, favoring an additional day of elevated to critical conditions. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday, ahead of the next midlevel trough over the Southwest. 40-percent Critical probabilities were added for Day 6/Monday, when confidence in this scenario is slightly higher. However, additional/higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding trough evolution becomes more clear. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A multi-day period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday, where fuels continue to dry out. ...Central/Southern High Plains - Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday... Following antecedent warming/drying beneath a large-scale ridge over the central/southern High Plains, deep/strong meridional flow will overspread the region on Day 3/Friday -- ahead of an amplifying western CONUS trough. This will promote an expansive north-south corridor of 25+ mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH across the central/southern High Plains. The strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over eastern CO, where the pressure gradient will be tightest. Given these warm/dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels, critical (locally high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected. On Day 4/Saturday, the large-scale trough and accompanying belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will eject east-northeastward across the central/southern High Plains. As a result, very strong westerly surface winds and low RH will overspread the region behind a surging dryline/Pacific front -- yielding high-end critical conditions. Thereafter, strong deep-layer westerlies will persist across the southern High Plains on Day 5/Sunday, favoring an additional day of elevated to critical conditions. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday, ahead of the next midlevel trough over the Southwest. 40-percent Critical probabilities were added for Day 6/Monday, when confidence in this scenario is slightly higher. However, additional/higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding trough evolution becomes more clear. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A multi-day period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday, where fuels continue to dry out. ...Central/Southern High Plains - Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday... Following antecedent warming/drying beneath a large-scale ridge over the central/southern High Plains, deep/strong meridional flow will overspread the region on Day 3/Friday -- ahead of an amplifying western CONUS trough. This will promote an expansive north-south corridor of 25+ mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH across the central/southern High Plains. The strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over eastern CO, where the pressure gradient will be tightest. Given these warm/dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels, critical (locally high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected. On Day 4/Saturday, the large-scale trough and accompanying belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will eject east-northeastward across the central/southern High Plains. As a result, very strong westerly surface winds and low RH will overspread the region behind a surging dryline/Pacific front -- yielding high-end critical conditions. Thereafter, strong deep-layer westerlies will persist across the southern High Plains on Day 5/Sunday, favoring an additional day of elevated to critical conditions. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday, ahead of the next midlevel trough over the Southwest. 40-percent Critical probabilities were added for Day 6/Monday, when confidence in this scenario is slightly higher. However, additional/higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding trough evolution becomes more clear. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 3 23:20:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 3 23:20:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0374 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO
Mesoscale Discussion 0374 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Areas affected...portions of far eastern Oregon into western and central Idaho Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032131Z - 032300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts and instances of hail may accompany the stronger storms this afternoon into early evening. The severe threat is expected to be sparse and localized. DISCUSSION...Multiple pulse cellular storms and multicells have recently developed to the east of a cloud deck in the past couple of hours over far eastern OR into southwestern ID. Here, diurnal heating has encouraged surface temperatures to warm into the mid 60s F amid mid 30s-40s F dewpoints, that in tandem with steep lapse rates, has boosted SBCAPE to 500-1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings and regional VADs depict curved, elongated hodographs, indicating the presence of strong deep-layer shear, with 21Z mesoanalysis depicting over 40 kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show thin CAPE profiles atop a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. As such, brief and localized instances of strong wind gusts and perhaps some hail may occur with the stronger multicells or any transient supercells that can develop. Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain isolated. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI... LAT...LON 42631780 43031797 43501784 44021731 44651652 45021469 44831408 44551392 44271389 43741444 43491492 43161597 42811705 42631780 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A multi-day period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday, where fuels continue to dry out. ...Central/Southern High Plains - Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday... Following antecedent warming/drying beneath a large-scale ridge over the central/southern High Plains, deep/strong meridional flow will overspread the region on Day 3/Friday -- ahead of an amplifying western CONUS trough. This will promote an expansive north-south corridor of 25+ mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH across the central/southern High Plains. The strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over eastern CO, where the pressure gradient will be tightest. Given these warm/dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels, critical (locally high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected. On Day 4/Saturday, the large-scale trough and accompanying belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will eject east-northeastward across the central/southern High Plains. As a result, very strong westerly surface winds and low RH will overspread the region behind a surging dryline/Pacific front -- yielding high-end critical conditions. Thereafter, strong deep-layer westerlies will persist across the southern High Plains on Day 5/Sunday, favoring an additional day of elevated to critical conditions. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday, ahead of the next midlevel trough over the Southwest. 40-percent Critical probabilities were added for Day 6/Monday, when confidence in this scenario is slightly higher. However, additional/higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding trough evolution becomes more clear. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A multi-day period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday, where fuels continue to dry out. ...Central/Southern High Plains - Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday... Following antecedent warming/drying beneath a large-scale ridge over the central/southern High Plains, deep/strong meridional flow will overspread the region on Day 3/Friday -- ahead of an amplifying western CONUS trough. This will promote an expansive north-south corridor of 25+ mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH across the central/southern High Plains. The strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over eastern CO, where the pressure gradient will be tightest. Given these warm/dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels, critical (locally high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected. On Day 4/Saturday, the large-scale trough and accompanying belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will eject east-northeastward across the central/southern High Plains. As a result, very strong westerly surface winds and low RH will overspread the region behind a surging dryline/Pacific front -- yielding high-end critical conditions. Thereafter, strong deep-layer westerlies will persist across the southern High Plains on Day 5/Sunday, favoring an additional day of elevated to critical conditions. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday, ahead of the next midlevel trough over the Southwest. 40-percent Critical probabilities were added for Day 6/Monday, when confidence in this scenario is slightly higher. However, additional/higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding trough evolution becomes more clear. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A multi-day period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday, where fuels continue to dry out. ...Central/Southern High Plains - Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday... Following antecedent warming/drying beneath a large-scale ridge over the central/southern High Plains, deep/strong meridional flow will overspread the region on Day 3/Friday -- ahead of an amplifying western CONUS trough. This will promote an expansive north-south corridor of 25+ mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH across the central/southern High Plains. The strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over eastern CO, where the pressure gradient will be tightest. Given these warm/dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels, critical (locally high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected. On Day 4/Saturday, the large-scale trough and accompanying belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will eject east-northeastward across the central/southern High Plains. As a result, very strong westerly surface winds and low RH will overspread the region behind a surging dryline/Pacific front -- yielding high-end critical conditions. Thereafter, strong deep-layer westerlies will persist across the southern High Plains on Day 5/Sunday, favoring an additional day of elevated to critical conditions. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday, ahead of the next midlevel trough over the Southwest. 40-percent Critical probabilities were added for Day 6/Monday, when confidence in this scenario is slightly higher. However, additional/higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding trough evolution becomes more clear. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A multi-day period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday, where fuels continue to dry out. ...Central/Southern High Plains - Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday... Following antecedent warming/drying beneath a large-scale ridge over the central/southern High Plains, deep/strong meridional flow will overspread the region on Day 3/Friday -- ahead of an amplifying western CONUS trough. This will promote an expansive north-south corridor of 25+ mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH across the central/southern High Plains. The strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over eastern CO, where the pressure gradient will be tightest. Given these warm/dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels, critical (locally high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected. On Day 4/Saturday, the large-scale trough and accompanying belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will eject east-northeastward across the central/southern High Plains. As a result, very strong westerly surface winds and low RH will overspread the region behind a surging dryline/Pacific front -- yielding high-end critical conditions. Thereafter, strong deep-layer westerlies will persist across the southern High Plains on Day 5/Sunday, favoring an additional day of elevated to critical conditions. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday, ahead of the next midlevel trough over the Southwest. 40-percent Critical probabilities were added for Day 6/Monday, when confidence in this scenario is slightly higher. However, additional/higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding trough evolution becomes more clear. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0373 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 87... FOR VIRGINIA TIDEWATERS
Mesoscale Discussion 0373 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Areas affected...Virginia Tidewaters Concerning...Tornado Watch 87... Valid 032016Z - 032215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 87 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours will focus in the Virginia Tidewaters. DISCUSSION...The warm front has lifted as far north into portions of the Delmarva this afternoon. Ongoing activity is primarily along or just north of this warm front. One discrete storm near Wakefield, VA, as well some weaker cells to its southwest, will likely be the main focus for tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours. The KAKQ VAD still shows a favorable wind profile and the most favorable remaining thermodynamic environment is within the Virginia Tidewaters. Tornado potential right along the cold front will also be present, but greater storm/outflow interaction may reduce the threat to some extent. ..Wendt.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH... LAT...LON 36667803 37007789 37647704 38037653 38237582 37557587 37097613 36457721 36267750 36247770 36447789 36667803 Read more

WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RZZ TO 35 SE RIC TO 10 SSW NHK TO 10 NW DOV. ..LYONS..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-032240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-019-039-045-047-032240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE DORCHESTER SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NCC073-091-032240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GATES HERTFORD Read more

WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RZZ TO 35 SE RIC TO 10 SSW NHK TO 10 NW DOV. ..LYONS..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-032240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-019-039-045-047-032240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE DORCHESTER SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NCC073-091-032240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GATES HERTFORD Read more

WW 87 TORNADO DE MD NC VA CW 031635Z - 032300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 87 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Delaware Eastern Maryland Northern North Carolina Southern and eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe storm development is expected this afternoon along and east of a surface front and deepening cyclone moving across Virginia. The storm environment will favor a mix of line segments and supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-75 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Salisbury MD to 30 miles southeast of Danville VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 85...WW 86... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23050. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE RDU TO 30 SW RIC TO 35 NE RIC TO 20 ESE DCA. ..LYONS..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-032140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC009-011-019-035-037-039-041-045-047-032140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CAROLINE DORCHESTER QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER NCC065-069-073-083-091-127-131-185-032140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES HALIFAX HERTFORD NASH Read more

MD 0372 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 86... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0372 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central FL Concerning...Tornado Watch 86... Valid 031922Z - 032045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 86 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat in the short term (next 1-2 hours) should continue to slowly diminish through the afternoon. Additional/downstream watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Low-level flow across the central FL Peninsula has gradually veered to southwesterly per recent surface observations and VWPs from KTBW/KMLB. This has reduced 0-1 km SRH along/ahead of a loosely organized band of thunderstorms extending southwest to northeast across the central FL Peninsula. The thermodynamic and kinematic environment remains conditionally favorable for severe convection across this area, with occasional strong to damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado possible for the next hour or two before the stronger convection across the east-central FL Peninsula moves offshore. However, boundary-layer flow has become mostly parallel to enhanced mid-level southwesterlies, reducing low-level convergence/lift and leading to messy storm mergers/interactions. Current expectations are for the already isolated severe threat in the short term to slowly diminish through the rest of the afternoon. Therefore, additional/downstream watch issuance is not expected across the FL Peninsula. ..Gleason.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 28278066 27688173 27378259 27658278 28058253 28598178 29308098 28858066 28488053 28278066 Read more

MD 0371 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0371 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031847Z - 032045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible. Large hail probability is low, but a supercell could produce marginally severe hail. DISCUSSION...Two clusters of storms have develop over the last hour, one just northwest of Raleigh and near Fayetteville. The northernmost cluster is in a better thermodynamic and kinematic environment and has shown a tendency contain supercellular structures. The KRAX VAD shows very strong deep-layer shear and some low-level hodograph curvature (though less than areas to the north and east). The strongest storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado. The large hail threat should be mitigated by generally poor mid-level lapse rates, but a supercellular storm mode could lead to at least marginally severe hail despite those environmental limitations. As the strongest storms are anticipated to move into WW87 relatively soon, no new watch is expected. Should these storm intensify more than currently forecast, a local extension of WW87 would be the most likely course of action. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 35897834 35797806 35477784 35047820 34637899 34687942 34807962 35077977 35337983 36017915 35977866 35897834 Read more