Severe Storms

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW JAX TO 15 NE SSI. WW 85 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 031700Z. ..GLEASON..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AMZ450-031700- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 85 TORNADO FL GA SC CW 030950Z - 031700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 85 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Florida Panhandle Southern Georgia Southern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 550 AM until 100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Several broken bands of thunderstorms will continue to move generally west to east across the Watch area this morning. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms embedded within the larger thunderstorm clusters will pose a risk for damaging gusts and possibly a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Savannah GA to 35 miles east southeast of Apalachicola FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 83...WW 84... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Smith Read more

WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0087 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0087 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-007-017-019-031-035-041-053-069-075-083-089-095-101-107- 109-117-119-125-127-031640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HERNANDO LAKE LEVY MARION NASSAU ORANGE PASCO PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SEMINOLE SUMTER UNION VOLUSIA AMZ452-454-550-GMZ850-031640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM Read more