Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level trough will amplify across the Southwest into northern Mexico. Moderate mid-level flow ahead of this trough will overspread the southern High Plains. Given the environment in this region will be deeply mixed, some of this stronger mid-level flow should reach the surface with 20+ mph sustained surface winds expected amid single digit relative humidity. Critically dry fuels in this region will support a large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level trough will amplify across the Southwest into northern Mexico. Moderate mid-level flow ahead of this trough will overspread the southern High Plains. Given the environment in this region will be deeply mixed, some of this stronger mid-level flow should reach the surface with 20+ mph sustained surface winds expected amid single digit relative humidity. Critically dry fuels in this region will support a large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level trough will amplify across the Southwest into northern Mexico. Moderate mid-level flow ahead of this trough will overspread the southern High Plains. Given the environment in this region will be deeply mixed, some of this stronger mid-level flow should reach the surface with 20+ mph sustained surface winds expected amid single digit relative humidity. Critically dry fuels in this region will support a large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of the southern Plains into the Mississippi Delta region. Large to very large hail is the main threat, especially over northwest Texas, though isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over the Desert Southwest, preceded by multiple embedded perturbations which are poised to traverse the southern Plains tomorrow/Monday. A broad belt of low-level moisture return will become established over the southern Plains during this period as colder mid-level temperatures overspread the south-central U.S., supporting at least moderate instability by afternoon. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms should occur across the southern Plains. The southerly low-level jet beneath strong mid-level westerlies will promote strong vertical wind shear over the warm sector, that in tandem with moderate instability will support some of the thunderstorms becoming strong to severe tomorrow afternoon and evening, with all severe hazards possible. ...Southern Plains... The first round of thunderstorms should initiate over portions of central TX by afternoon along the warm front. At least mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to 1500-2500 J/kg. 30+ kts of south-southeasterly flow beneath 50+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb winds will support modestly curved low-level hodographs with mid/upper-level elongation, quantified by around 50 kts of effective bulk shear and at least 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Multicells and supercells will form along the warm front with large hail and a few tornadoes the main threat. A few stones may exceed 2 inches in diameter. Meanwhile, low-level moisture will also advect northwestward into northwestern TX and extreme southwestern OK. Surface dewpoints should reach into the 50s F, and will be overspread by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, supporting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Strong vertical wind shear will also be in place, with elongated hodographs contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and supercells will be the dominant modes of convection. The main threat will be large hail (multiple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail will be possible). Damaging gusts will also be possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out given modest low-level hodograph curvature, though the tornado threat should be tempered by limited low-level moisture. Later in the evening, storms should merge into clusters and small bowing segments, where a few damaging gusts will eventually become the main concern. ...Mississippi Delta Region... As the warm front moves north through the day, low-level warm-air and moisture advection will boost MUCAPE to over 1000 J/kg over portions of central LA into western MS. Elevated convection should develop during the afternoon in the warm-air advection regime, where 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs will encourage multicell/supercell development. Large hail will be the main threat with the more dominant elevated supercells. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of the southern Plains into the Mississippi Delta region. Large to very large hail is the main threat, especially over northwest Texas, though isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over the Desert Southwest, preceded by multiple embedded perturbations which are poised to traverse the southern Plains tomorrow/Monday. A broad belt of low-level moisture return will become established over the southern Plains during this period as colder mid-level temperatures overspread the south-central U.S., supporting at least moderate instability by afternoon. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms should occur across the southern Plains. The southerly low-level jet beneath strong mid-level westerlies will promote strong vertical wind shear over the warm sector, that in tandem with moderate instability will support some of the thunderstorms becoming strong to severe tomorrow afternoon and evening, with all severe hazards possible. ...Southern Plains... The first round of thunderstorms should initiate over portions of central TX by afternoon along the warm front. At least mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to 1500-2500 J/kg. 30+ kts of south-southeasterly flow beneath 50+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb winds will support modestly curved low-level hodographs with mid/upper-level elongation, quantified by around 50 kts of effective bulk shear and at least 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Multicells and supercells will form along the warm front with large hail and a few tornadoes the main threat. A few stones may exceed 2 inches in diameter. Meanwhile, low-level moisture will also advect northwestward into northwestern TX and extreme southwestern OK. Surface dewpoints should reach into the 50s F, and will be overspread by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, supporting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Strong vertical wind shear will also be in place, with elongated hodographs contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and supercells will be the dominant modes of convection. The main threat will be large hail (multiple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail will be possible). Damaging gusts will also be possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out given modest low-level hodograph curvature, though the tornado threat should be tempered by limited low-level moisture. Later in the evening, storms should merge into clusters and small bowing segments, where a few damaging gusts will eventually become the main concern. ...Mississippi Delta Region... As the warm front moves north through the day, low-level warm-air and moisture advection will boost MUCAPE to over 1000 J/kg over portions of central LA into western MS. Elevated convection should develop during the afternoon in the warm-air advection regime, where 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs will encourage multicell/supercell development. Large hail will be the main threat with the more dominant elevated supercells. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of the southern Plains into the Mississippi Delta region. Large to very large hail is the main threat, especially over northwest Texas, though isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over the Desert Southwest, preceded by multiple embedded perturbations which are poised to traverse the southern Plains tomorrow/Monday. A broad belt of low-level moisture return will become established over the southern Plains during this period as colder mid-level temperatures overspread the south-central U.S., supporting at least moderate instability by afternoon. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms should occur across the southern Plains. The southerly low-level jet beneath strong mid-level westerlies will promote strong vertical wind shear over the warm sector, that in tandem with moderate instability will support some of the thunderstorms becoming strong to severe tomorrow afternoon and evening, with all severe hazards possible. ...Southern Plains... The first round of thunderstorms should initiate over portions of central TX by afternoon along the warm front. At least mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to 1500-2500 J/kg. 30+ kts of south-southeasterly flow beneath 50+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb winds will support modestly curved low-level hodographs with mid/upper-level elongation, quantified by around 50 kts of effective bulk shear and at least 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Multicells and supercells will form along the warm front with large hail and a few tornadoes the main threat. A few stones may exceed 2 inches in diameter. Meanwhile, low-level moisture will also advect northwestward into northwestern TX and extreme southwestern OK. Surface dewpoints should reach into the 50s F, and will be overspread by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, supporting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Strong vertical wind shear will also be in place, with elongated hodographs contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and supercells will be the dominant modes of convection. The main threat will be large hail (multiple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail will be possible). Damaging gusts will also be possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out given modest low-level hodograph curvature, though the tornado threat should be tempered by limited low-level moisture. Later in the evening, storms should merge into clusters and small bowing segments, where a few damaging gusts will eventually become the main concern. ...Mississippi Delta Region... As the warm front moves north through the day, low-level warm-air and moisture advection will boost MUCAPE to over 1000 J/kg over portions of central LA into western MS. Elevated convection should develop during the afternoon in the warm-air advection regime, where 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs will encourage multicell/supercell development. Large hail will be the main threat with the more dominant elevated supercells. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of the southern Plains into the Mississippi Delta region. Large to very large hail is the main threat, especially over northwest Texas, though isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over the Desert Southwest, preceded by multiple embedded perturbations which are poised to traverse the southern Plains tomorrow/Monday. A broad belt of low-level moisture return will become established over the southern Plains during this period as colder mid-level temperatures overspread the south-central U.S., supporting at least moderate instability by afternoon. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms should occur across the southern Plains. The southerly low-level jet beneath strong mid-level westerlies will promote strong vertical wind shear over the warm sector, that in tandem with moderate instability will support some of the thunderstorms becoming strong to severe tomorrow afternoon and evening, with all severe hazards possible. ...Southern Plains... The first round of thunderstorms should initiate over portions of central TX by afternoon along the warm front. At least mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to 1500-2500 J/kg. 30+ kts of south-southeasterly flow beneath 50+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb winds will support modestly curved low-level hodographs with mid/upper-level elongation, quantified by around 50 kts of effective bulk shear and at least 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Multicells and supercells will form along the warm front with large hail and a few tornadoes the main threat. A few stones may exceed 2 inches in diameter. Meanwhile, low-level moisture will also advect northwestward into northwestern TX and extreme southwestern OK. Surface dewpoints should reach into the 50s F, and will be overspread by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, supporting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Strong vertical wind shear will also be in place, with elongated hodographs contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and supercells will be the dominant modes of convection. The main threat will be large hail (multiple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail will be possible). Damaging gusts will also be possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out given modest low-level hodograph curvature, though the tornado threat should be tempered by limited low-level moisture. Later in the evening, storms should merge into clusters and small bowing segments, where a few damaging gusts will eventually become the main concern. ...Mississippi Delta Region... As the warm front moves north through the day, low-level warm-air and moisture advection will boost MUCAPE to over 1000 J/kg over portions of central LA into western MS. Elevated convection should develop during the afternoon in the warm-air advection regime, where 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs will encourage multicell/supercell development. Large hail will be the main threat with the more dominant elevated supercells. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of the southern Plains into the Mississippi Delta region. Large to very large hail is the main threat, especially over northwest Texas, though isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over the Desert Southwest, preceded by multiple embedded perturbations which are poised to traverse the southern Plains tomorrow/Monday. A broad belt of low-level moisture return will become established over the southern Plains during this period as colder mid-level temperatures overspread the south-central U.S., supporting at least moderate instability by afternoon. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms should occur across the southern Plains. The southerly low-level jet beneath strong mid-level westerlies will promote strong vertical wind shear over the warm sector, that in tandem with moderate instability will support some of the thunderstorms becoming strong to severe tomorrow afternoon and evening, with all severe hazards possible. ...Southern Plains... The first round of thunderstorms should initiate over portions of central TX by afternoon along the warm front. At least mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to 1500-2500 J/kg. 30+ kts of south-southeasterly flow beneath 50+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb winds will support modestly curved low-level hodographs with mid/upper-level elongation, quantified by around 50 kts of effective bulk shear and at least 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Multicells and supercells will form along the warm front with large hail and a few tornadoes the main threat. A few stones may exceed 2 inches in diameter. Meanwhile, low-level moisture will also advect northwestward into northwestern TX and extreme southwestern OK. Surface dewpoints should reach into the 50s F, and will be overspread by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, supporting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Strong vertical wind shear will also be in place, with elongated hodographs contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and supercells will be the dominant modes of convection. The main threat will be large hail (multiple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail will be possible). Damaging gusts will also be possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out given modest low-level hodograph curvature, though the tornado threat should be tempered by limited low-level moisture. Later in the evening, storms should merge into clusters and small bowing segments, where a few damaging gusts will eventually become the main concern. ...Mississippi Delta Region... As the warm front moves north through the day, low-level warm-air and moisture advection will boost MUCAPE to over 1000 J/kg over portions of central LA into western MS. Elevated convection should develop during the afternoon in the warm-air advection regime, where 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs will encourage multicell/supercell development. Large hail will be the main threat with the more dominant elevated supercells. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of the southern Plains into the Mississippi Delta region. Large to very large hail is the main threat, especially over northwest Texas, though isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over the Desert Southwest, preceded by multiple embedded perturbations which are poised to traverse the southern Plains tomorrow/Monday. A broad belt of low-level moisture return will become established over the southern Plains during this period as colder mid-level temperatures overspread the south-central U.S., supporting at least moderate instability by afternoon. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms should occur across the southern Plains. The southerly low-level jet beneath strong mid-level westerlies will promote strong vertical wind shear over the warm sector, that in tandem with moderate instability will support some of the thunderstorms becoming strong to severe tomorrow afternoon and evening, with all severe hazards possible. ...Southern Plains... The first round of thunderstorms should initiate over portions of central TX by afternoon along the warm front. At least mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to 1500-2500 J/kg. 30+ kts of south-southeasterly flow beneath 50+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb winds will support modestly curved low-level hodographs with mid/upper-level elongation, quantified by around 50 kts of effective bulk shear and at least 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Multicells and supercells will form along the warm front with large hail and a few tornadoes the main threat. A few stones may exceed 2 inches in diameter. Meanwhile, low-level moisture will also advect northwestward into northwestern TX and extreme southwestern OK. Surface dewpoints should reach into the 50s F, and will be overspread by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, supporting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Strong vertical wind shear will also be in place, with elongated hodographs contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and supercells will be the dominant modes of convection. The main threat will be large hail (multiple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail will be possible). Damaging gusts will also be possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out given modest low-level hodograph curvature, though the tornado threat should be tempered by limited low-level moisture. Later in the evening, storms should merge into clusters and small bowing segments, where a few damaging gusts will eventually become the main concern. ...Mississippi Delta Region... As the warm front moves north through the day, low-level warm-air and moisture advection will boost MUCAPE to over 1000 J/kg over portions of central LA into western MS. Elevated convection should develop during the afternoon in the warm-air advection regime, where 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs will encourage multicell/supercell development. Large hail will be the main threat with the more dominant elevated supercells. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of the southern Plains into the Mississippi Delta region. Large to very large hail is the main threat, especially over northwest Texas, though isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over the Desert Southwest, preceded by multiple embedded perturbations which are poised to traverse the southern Plains tomorrow/Monday. A broad belt of low-level moisture return will become established over the southern Plains during this period as colder mid-level temperatures overspread the south-central U.S., supporting at least moderate instability by afternoon. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms should occur across the southern Plains. The southerly low-level jet beneath strong mid-level westerlies will promote strong vertical wind shear over the warm sector, that in tandem with moderate instability will support some of the thunderstorms becoming strong to severe tomorrow afternoon and evening, with all severe hazards possible. ...Southern Plains... The first round of thunderstorms should initiate over portions of central TX by afternoon along the warm front. At least mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to 1500-2500 J/kg. 30+ kts of south-southeasterly flow beneath 50+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb winds will support modestly curved low-level hodographs with mid/upper-level elongation, quantified by around 50 kts of effective bulk shear and at least 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Multicells and supercells will form along the warm front with large hail and a few tornadoes the main threat. A few stones may exceed 2 inches in diameter. Meanwhile, low-level moisture will also advect northwestward into northwestern TX and extreme southwestern OK. Surface dewpoints should reach into the 50s F, and will be overspread by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, supporting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Strong vertical wind shear will also be in place, with elongated hodographs contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and supercells will be the dominant modes of convection. The main threat will be large hail (multiple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail will be possible). Damaging gusts will also be possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out given modest low-level hodograph curvature, though the tornado threat should be tempered by limited low-level moisture. Later in the evening, storms should merge into clusters and small bowing segments, where a few damaging gusts will eventually become the main concern. ...Mississippi Delta Region... As the warm front moves north through the day, low-level warm-air and moisture advection will boost MUCAPE to over 1000 J/kg over portions of central LA into western MS. Elevated convection should develop during the afternoon in the warm-air advection regime, where 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs will encourage multicell/supercell development. Large hail will be the main threat with the more dominant elevated supercells. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of the southern Plains into the Mississippi Delta region. Large to very large hail is the main threat, especially over northwest Texas, though isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over the Desert Southwest, preceded by multiple embedded perturbations which are poised to traverse the southern Plains tomorrow/Monday. A broad belt of low-level moisture return will become established over the southern Plains during this period as colder mid-level temperatures overspread the south-central U.S., supporting at least moderate instability by afternoon. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms should occur across the southern Plains. The southerly low-level jet beneath strong mid-level westerlies will promote strong vertical wind shear over the warm sector, that in tandem with moderate instability will support some of the thunderstorms becoming strong to severe tomorrow afternoon and evening, with all severe hazards possible. ...Southern Plains... The first round of thunderstorms should initiate over portions of central TX by afternoon along the warm front. At least mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to 1500-2500 J/kg. 30+ kts of south-southeasterly flow beneath 50+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb winds will support modestly curved low-level hodographs with mid/upper-level elongation, quantified by around 50 kts of effective bulk shear and at least 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Multicells and supercells will form along the warm front with large hail and a few tornadoes the main threat. A few stones may exceed 2 inches in diameter. Meanwhile, low-level moisture will also advect northwestward into northwestern TX and extreme southwestern OK. Surface dewpoints should reach into the 50s F, and will be overspread by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, supporting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Strong vertical wind shear will also be in place, with elongated hodographs contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and supercells will be the dominant modes of convection. The main threat will be large hail (multiple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail will be possible). Damaging gusts will also be possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out given modest low-level hodograph curvature, though the tornado threat should be tempered by limited low-level moisture. Later in the evening, storms should merge into clusters and small bowing segments, where a few damaging gusts will eventually become the main concern. ...Mississippi Delta Region... As the warm front moves north through the day, low-level warm-air and moisture advection will boost MUCAPE to over 1000 J/kg over portions of central LA into western MS. Elevated convection should develop during the afternoon in the warm-air advection regime, where 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs will encourage multicell/supercell development. Large hail will be the main threat with the more dominant elevated supercells. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface low across central Nebraska will weaken as it moves east today. Despite the weakening, a strong pressure gradient is expected across much of the Plains and into the southern High Plains. In addition, a deeply mixed atmosphere is expected beneath strong mid-level flow. Therefore, 20 to 25 mph winds are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. An extended period of dry and windy conditions in the southern High Plains has dried fuels substantially in this region. As a result, large fires will be possible today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface low across central Nebraska will weaken as it moves east today. Despite the weakening, a strong pressure gradient is expected across much of the Plains and into the southern High Plains. In addition, a deeply mixed atmosphere is expected beneath strong mid-level flow. Therefore, 20 to 25 mph winds are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. An extended period of dry and windy conditions in the southern High Plains has dried fuels substantially in this region. As a result, large fires will be possible today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface low across central Nebraska will weaken as it moves east today. Despite the weakening, a strong pressure gradient is expected across much of the Plains and into the southern High Plains. In addition, a deeply mixed atmosphere is expected beneath strong mid-level flow. Therefore, 20 to 25 mph winds are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. An extended period of dry and windy conditions in the southern High Plains has dried fuels substantially in this region. As a result, large fires will be possible today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface low across central Nebraska will weaken as it moves east today. Despite the weakening, a strong pressure gradient is expected across much of the Plains and into the southern High Plains. In addition, a deeply mixed atmosphere is expected beneath strong mid-level flow. Therefore, 20 to 25 mph winds are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. An extended period of dry and windy conditions in the southern High Plains has dried fuels substantially in this region. As a result, large fires will be possible today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface low across central Nebraska will weaken as it moves east today. Despite the weakening, a strong pressure gradient is expected across much of the Plains and into the southern High Plains. In addition, a deeply mixed atmosphere is expected beneath strong mid-level flow. Therefore, 20 to 25 mph winds are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. An extended period of dry and windy conditions in the southern High Plains has dried fuels substantially in this region. As a result, large fires will be possible today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface low across central Nebraska will weaken as it moves east today. Despite the weakening, a strong pressure gradient is expected across much of the Plains and into the southern High Plains. In addition, a deeply mixed atmosphere is expected beneath strong mid-level flow. Therefore, 20 to 25 mph winds are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. An extended period of dry and windy conditions in the southern High Plains has dried fuels substantially in this region. As a result, large fires will be possible today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CENTERED FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TO WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong/isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening in the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid/lower Mississippi Valley area... While dewpoints remain in the 30s and 40s across the SLGT risk area late this morning, low-level moisture advection is ongoing ahead of the advancing cold front, with low to mid 60s dewpoints now observed across central and southern portions of Arkansas. As the front advances eastward, and the more favorable low-level theta-e airmass continues advecting northward, filtered heating will support modest destabilization, with afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values rising into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Stronger ascent will remain just north of the SLGT risk area, as a lobe of vorticity rotating through cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft on the southeastern side of closed upper low over Nebraska crosses Illinois/Indiana this afternoon. Still, scattered convective development is expected to begin by mid to late afternoon across the Mid Mississippi Valley, and southward into the Delta region, in focused low-level ascent near the cold front. While modest CAPE will likely limit severe potential, the deep-layer wind field (veering and increasing favorably with height across the pre-frontal warm sector) will likely augment a few of the stronger updrafts, suggesting that a few storms will become capable of producing hail and/or damaging winds. A tornado or two will also be possible, with hodographs indicating favorable helicity with any right-moving supercell. Severe potential should peak through late afternoon, and then gradually diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools, and the cold front weakens with time. ...Parts of central/southeastern Iowa and vicinity... As the weakening/vertically stacked low shifts northeastward out of Nebraska and across northwestern Iowa this afternoon, continued daytime heating of a marginally moist (40s dewpoints) boundary layer, residing beneath rather steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to facilitate weak destabilization. Thunderstorms have developed late this morning across portions of northern and central Illinois, and across north-central Iowa and into adjacent southern Minnesota. By mid afternoon, new convective development is expected along the occluded front currently moving northeastward across the Nebraska/Iowa border/Mid-Missouri Valley at this time, as it shifts into central and southeastern Iowa. While the evolving, low-topped storms should remain largely sub-severe, a strong to severe wind gust or two, and even a brief tornado, will be possible, through late afternoon/early evening. ..Goss/Gleason.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CENTERED FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TO WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong/isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening in the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid/lower Mississippi Valley area... While dewpoints remain in the 30s and 40s across the SLGT risk area late this morning, low-level moisture advection is ongoing ahead of the advancing cold front, with low to mid 60s dewpoints now observed across central and southern portions of Arkansas. As the front advances eastward, and the more favorable low-level theta-e airmass continues advecting northward, filtered heating will support modest destabilization, with afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values rising into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Stronger ascent will remain just north of the SLGT risk area, as a lobe of vorticity rotating through cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft on the southeastern side of closed upper low over Nebraska crosses Illinois/Indiana this afternoon. Still, scattered convective development is expected to begin by mid to late afternoon across the Mid Mississippi Valley, and southward into the Delta region, in focused low-level ascent near the cold front. While modest CAPE will likely limit severe potential, the deep-layer wind field (veering and increasing favorably with height across the pre-frontal warm sector) will likely augment a few of the stronger updrafts, suggesting that a few storms will become capable of producing hail and/or damaging winds. A tornado or two will also be possible, with hodographs indicating favorable helicity with any right-moving supercell. Severe potential should peak through late afternoon, and then gradually diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools, and the cold front weakens with time. ...Parts of central/southeastern Iowa and vicinity... As the weakening/vertically stacked low shifts northeastward out of Nebraska and across northwestern Iowa this afternoon, continued daytime heating of a marginally moist (40s dewpoints) boundary layer, residing beneath rather steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to facilitate weak destabilization. Thunderstorms have developed late this morning across portions of northern and central Illinois, and across north-central Iowa and into adjacent southern Minnesota. By mid afternoon, new convective development is expected along the occluded front currently moving northeastward across the Nebraska/Iowa border/Mid-Missouri Valley at this time, as it shifts into central and southeastern Iowa. While the evolving, low-topped storms should remain largely sub-severe, a strong to severe wind gust or two, and even a brief tornado, will be possible, through late afternoon/early evening. ..Goss/Gleason.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CENTERED FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TO WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong/isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening in the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid/lower Mississippi Valley area... While dewpoints remain in the 30s and 40s across the SLGT risk area late this morning, low-level moisture advection is ongoing ahead of the advancing cold front, with low to mid 60s dewpoints now observed across central and southern portions of Arkansas. As the front advances eastward, and the more favorable low-level theta-e airmass continues advecting northward, filtered heating will support modest destabilization, with afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values rising into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Stronger ascent will remain just north of the SLGT risk area, as a lobe of vorticity rotating through cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft on the southeastern side of closed upper low over Nebraska crosses Illinois/Indiana this afternoon. Still, scattered convective development is expected to begin by mid to late afternoon across the Mid Mississippi Valley, and southward into the Delta region, in focused low-level ascent near the cold front. While modest CAPE will likely limit severe potential, the deep-layer wind field (veering and increasing favorably with height across the pre-frontal warm sector) will likely augment a few of the stronger updrafts, suggesting that a few storms will become capable of producing hail and/or damaging winds. A tornado or two will also be possible, with hodographs indicating favorable helicity with any right-moving supercell. Severe potential should peak through late afternoon, and then gradually diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools, and the cold front weakens with time. ...Parts of central/southeastern Iowa and vicinity... As the weakening/vertically stacked low shifts northeastward out of Nebraska and across northwestern Iowa this afternoon, continued daytime heating of a marginally moist (40s dewpoints) boundary layer, residing beneath rather steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to facilitate weak destabilization. Thunderstorms have developed late this morning across portions of northern and central Illinois, and across north-central Iowa and into adjacent southern Minnesota. By mid afternoon, new convective development is expected along the occluded front currently moving northeastward across the Nebraska/Iowa border/Mid-Missouri Valley at this time, as it shifts into central and southeastern Iowa. While the evolving, low-topped storms should remain largely sub-severe, a strong to severe wind gust or two, and even a brief tornado, will be possible, through late afternoon/early evening. ..Goss/Gleason.. 04/07/2024 Read more