Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CENTERED FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TO WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong/isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening in the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid/lower Mississippi Valley area... While dewpoints remain in the 30s and 40s across the SLGT risk area late this morning, low-level moisture advection is ongoing ahead of the advancing cold front, with low to mid 60s dewpoints now observed across central and southern portions of Arkansas. As the front advances eastward, and the more favorable low-level theta-e airmass continues advecting northward, filtered heating will support modest destabilization, with afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values rising into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Stronger ascent will remain just north of the SLGT risk area, as a lobe of vorticity rotating through cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft on the southeastern side of closed upper low over Nebraska crosses Illinois/Indiana this afternoon. Still, scattered convective development is expected to begin by mid to late afternoon across the Mid Mississippi Valley, and southward into the Delta region, in focused low-level ascent near the cold front. While modest CAPE will likely limit severe potential, the deep-layer wind field (veering and increasing favorably with height across the pre-frontal warm sector) will likely augment a few of the stronger updrafts, suggesting that a few storms will become capable of producing hail and/or damaging winds. A tornado or two will also be possible, with hodographs indicating favorable helicity with any right-moving supercell. Severe potential should peak through late afternoon, and then gradually diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools, and the cold front weakens with time. ...Parts of central/southeastern Iowa and vicinity... As the weakening/vertically stacked low shifts northeastward out of Nebraska and across northwestern Iowa this afternoon, continued daytime heating of a marginally moist (40s dewpoints) boundary layer, residing beneath rather steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to facilitate weak destabilization. Thunderstorms have developed late this morning across portions of northern and central Illinois, and across north-central Iowa and into adjacent southern Minnesota. By mid afternoon, new convective development is expected along the occluded front currently moving northeastward across the Nebraska/Iowa border/Mid-Missouri Valley at this time, as it shifts into central and southeastern Iowa. While the evolving, low-topped storms should remain largely sub-severe, a strong to severe wind gust or two, and even a brief tornado, will be possible, through late afternoon/early evening. ..Goss/Gleason.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CENTERED FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TO WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong/isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening in the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid/lower Mississippi Valley area... While dewpoints remain in the 30s and 40s across the SLGT risk area late this morning, low-level moisture advection is ongoing ahead of the advancing cold front, with low to mid 60s dewpoints now observed across central and southern portions of Arkansas. As the front advances eastward, and the more favorable low-level theta-e airmass continues advecting northward, filtered heating will support modest destabilization, with afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values rising into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Stronger ascent will remain just north of the SLGT risk area, as a lobe of vorticity rotating through cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft on the southeastern side of closed upper low over Nebraska crosses Illinois/Indiana this afternoon. Still, scattered convective development is expected to begin by mid to late afternoon across the Mid Mississippi Valley, and southward into the Delta region, in focused low-level ascent near the cold front. While modest CAPE will likely limit severe potential, the deep-layer wind field (veering and increasing favorably with height across the pre-frontal warm sector) will likely augment a few of the stronger updrafts, suggesting that a few storms will become capable of producing hail and/or damaging winds. A tornado or two will also be possible, with hodographs indicating favorable helicity with any right-moving supercell. Severe potential should peak through late afternoon, and then gradually diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools, and the cold front weakens with time. ...Parts of central/southeastern Iowa and vicinity... As the weakening/vertically stacked low shifts northeastward out of Nebraska and across northwestern Iowa this afternoon, continued daytime heating of a marginally moist (40s dewpoints) boundary layer, residing beneath rather steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to facilitate weak destabilization. Thunderstorms have developed late this morning across portions of northern and central Illinois, and across north-central Iowa and into adjacent southern Minnesota. By mid afternoon, new convective development is expected along the occluded front currently moving northeastward across the Nebraska/Iowa border/Mid-Missouri Valley at this time, as it shifts into central and southeastern Iowa. While the evolving, low-topped storms should remain largely sub-severe, a strong to severe wind gust or two, and even a brief tornado, will be possible, through late afternoon/early evening. ..Goss/Gleason.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CENTERED FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TO WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong/isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening in the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid/lower Mississippi Valley area... While dewpoints remain in the 30s and 40s across the SLGT risk area late this morning, low-level moisture advection is ongoing ahead of the advancing cold front, with low to mid 60s dewpoints now observed across central and southern portions of Arkansas. As the front advances eastward, and the more favorable low-level theta-e airmass continues advecting northward, filtered heating will support modest destabilization, with afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values rising into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Stronger ascent will remain just north of the SLGT risk area, as a lobe of vorticity rotating through cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft on the southeastern side of closed upper low over Nebraska crosses Illinois/Indiana this afternoon. Still, scattered convective development is expected to begin by mid to late afternoon across the Mid Mississippi Valley, and southward into the Delta region, in focused low-level ascent near the cold front. While modest CAPE will likely limit severe potential, the deep-layer wind field (veering and increasing favorably with height across the pre-frontal warm sector) will likely augment a few of the stronger updrafts, suggesting that a few storms will become capable of producing hail and/or damaging winds. A tornado or two will also be possible, with hodographs indicating favorable helicity with any right-moving supercell. Severe potential should peak through late afternoon, and then gradually diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools, and the cold front weakens with time. ...Parts of central/southeastern Iowa and vicinity... As the weakening/vertically stacked low shifts northeastward out of Nebraska and across northwestern Iowa this afternoon, continued daytime heating of a marginally moist (40s dewpoints) boundary layer, residing beneath rather steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to facilitate weak destabilization. Thunderstorms have developed late this morning across portions of northern and central Illinois, and across north-central Iowa and into adjacent southern Minnesota. By mid afternoon, new convective development is expected along the occluded front currently moving northeastward across the Nebraska/Iowa border/Mid-Missouri Valley at this time, as it shifts into central and southeastern Iowa. While the evolving, low-topped storms should remain largely sub-severe, a strong to severe wind gust or two, and even a brief tornado, will be possible, through late afternoon/early evening. ..Goss/Gleason.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening in the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley vicinity... Early morning surface analysis places the northern rim of 60+ deg F surface dewpoints across the Arklatex in advance of a cold front/dryline located in the Ozarks. The deep-layer cyclone located over the north-central Great Plains will move little during the period. Low-level moistening in advance of the cold front will allow for weak to moderate destabilization across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, with MLCAPE generally increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range this afternoon. A belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will support effective shear of 45-55 kt, more than adequate for updraft organization. Only weak large-scale ascent is expected across the region with the stronger forcing for ascent displaced to the north-northwest over IA/upper MS Valley, which lends some uncertainty on storm coverage/intensity. Nonetheless, model progs show isolated to scattered storm development during the late afternoon through the mid evening across the lower/mid MS Valley. Adequately enlarged hodographs (200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH) beneath strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow, coupled with seemingly sufficient low-level moisture/buoyancy, suggest a few supercells may evolve near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers into far western TN during the 22-02z period. A tornado risk may develop with one or two sustained supercells, in addition to large hail potentially accompanying the stronger storms. The loss of instability will lead to a decreasing severe threat by late evening. ...Iowa... The latest model guidance indicates at least isolated storm development this afternoon arcing along the occluded front over IA. Low-level moisture will likely remain limited with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s. However, cold mid-level temperatures associated with the mid-level low centered over the NE/SD border, will aid in weak instability developing by midday. A narrow corridor of overlapping large 0-3 km MLCAPE (100-150 J/kg) and low-level vorticity may yield a couple of storms capable of an isolated severe risk during the afternoon. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening in the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley vicinity... Early morning surface analysis places the northern rim of 60+ deg F surface dewpoints across the Arklatex in advance of a cold front/dryline located in the Ozarks. The deep-layer cyclone located over the north-central Great Plains will move little during the period. Low-level moistening in advance of the cold front will allow for weak to moderate destabilization across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, with MLCAPE generally increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range this afternoon. A belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will support effective shear of 45-55 kt, more than adequate for updraft organization. Only weak large-scale ascent is expected across the region with the stronger forcing for ascent displaced to the north-northwest over IA/upper MS Valley, which lends some uncertainty on storm coverage/intensity. Nonetheless, model progs show isolated to scattered storm development during the late afternoon through the mid evening across the lower/mid MS Valley. Adequately enlarged hodographs (200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH) beneath strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow, coupled with seemingly sufficient low-level moisture/buoyancy, suggest a few supercells may evolve near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers into far western TN during the 22-02z period. A tornado risk may develop with one or two sustained supercells, in addition to large hail potentially accompanying the stronger storms. The loss of instability will lead to a decreasing severe threat by late evening. ...Iowa... The latest model guidance indicates at least isolated storm development this afternoon arcing along the occluded front over IA. Low-level moisture will likely remain limited with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s. However, cold mid-level temperatures associated with the mid-level low centered over the NE/SD border, will aid in weak instability developing by midday. A narrow corridor of overlapping large 0-3 km MLCAPE (100-150 J/kg) and low-level vorticity may yield a couple of storms capable of an isolated severe risk during the afternoon. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening in the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley vicinity... Early morning surface analysis places the northern rim of 60+ deg F surface dewpoints across the Arklatex in advance of a cold front/dryline located in the Ozarks. The deep-layer cyclone located over the north-central Great Plains will move little during the period. Low-level moistening in advance of the cold front will allow for weak to moderate destabilization across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, with MLCAPE generally increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range this afternoon. A belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will support effective shear of 45-55 kt, more than adequate for updraft organization. Only weak large-scale ascent is expected across the region with the stronger forcing for ascent displaced to the north-northwest over IA/upper MS Valley, which lends some uncertainty on storm coverage/intensity. Nonetheless, model progs show isolated to scattered storm development during the late afternoon through the mid evening across the lower/mid MS Valley. Adequately enlarged hodographs (200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH) beneath strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow, coupled with seemingly sufficient low-level moisture/buoyancy, suggest a few supercells may evolve near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers into far western TN during the 22-02z period. A tornado risk may develop with one or two sustained supercells, in addition to large hail potentially accompanying the stronger storms. The loss of instability will lead to a decreasing severe threat by late evening. ...Iowa... The latest model guidance indicates at least isolated storm development this afternoon arcing along the occluded front over IA. Low-level moisture will likely remain limited with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s. However, cold mid-level temperatures associated with the mid-level low centered over the NE/SD border, will aid in weak instability developing by midday. A narrow corridor of overlapping large 0-3 km MLCAPE (100-150 J/kg) and low-level vorticity may yield a couple of storms capable of an isolated severe risk during the afternoon. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening in the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley vicinity... Early morning surface analysis places the northern rim of 60+ deg F surface dewpoints across the Arklatex in advance of a cold front/dryline located in the Ozarks. The deep-layer cyclone located over the north-central Great Plains will move little during the period. Low-level moistening in advance of the cold front will allow for weak to moderate destabilization across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, with MLCAPE generally increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range this afternoon. A belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will support effective shear of 45-55 kt, more than adequate for updraft organization. Only weak large-scale ascent is expected across the region with the stronger forcing for ascent displaced to the north-northwest over IA/upper MS Valley, which lends some uncertainty on storm coverage/intensity. Nonetheless, model progs show isolated to scattered storm development during the late afternoon through the mid evening across the lower/mid MS Valley. Adequately enlarged hodographs (200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH) beneath strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow, coupled with seemingly sufficient low-level moisture/buoyancy, suggest a few supercells may evolve near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers into far western TN during the 22-02z period. A tornado risk may develop with one or two sustained supercells, in addition to large hail potentially accompanying the stronger storms. The loss of instability will lead to a decreasing severe threat by late evening. ...Iowa... The latest model guidance indicates at least isolated storm development this afternoon arcing along the occluded front over IA. Low-level moisture will likely remain limited with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s. However, cold mid-level temperatures associated with the mid-level low centered over the NE/SD border, will aid in weak instability developing by midday. A narrow corridor of overlapping large 0-3 km MLCAPE (100-150 J/kg) and low-level vorticity may yield a couple of storms capable of an isolated severe risk during the afternoon. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/07/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern across the South should persist through mid-week. ...D4-5... Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough over the west TX vicinity at 12Z Wednesday. Non-GFS/GEFS guidance continues to indicate a slower eastward progression through Thursday. This shortwave impulse should phase into a broader upper trough being carved out as a northern-stream wave digs into the Upper Midwest to Midwest. This will yield substantial flow amplification through the troposphere, mainly late Wednesday into Thursday across the East. However, the overall thermodynamic environment should become increasingly limited. Widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States early Wednesday within a stout low-level warm theta-e advection regime. This will undoubtedly hamper downstream destabilization to the northeast on D4. But on the southern flank of this convective plume, strong low-level shear will foster some tornado/wind risk. Guidance such as the 00Z ECMWF and UKMET do indicate appreciable diurnal destabilization in its wake over at least the Sabine Valley to Ark-La-Miss vicinity just ahead of the surface cyclone track. The 00Z ECMWF ensemble still indicates a fair degree of spread on where the cyclone should be by Wednesday evening, from LA to the Mid-South. As such, have maintained a relatively broad 15% area, especially given the intensifying flow fields supporting tornado/wind potential persisting into Wednesday night. Lower-level winds should become very strong by Thursday morning yielding a high shear-low CAPE environment across at least a part of the Southeast into Thursday afternoon. This region appears to have the best chance of adequate boundary-layer heating to support at least a damaging wind threat before the convective band shifts off the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong to very strong low-level flow will also exist farther north into the Upper OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic States where a lower-probability area-of-interest remains evident for D5. ...D6-8... In the wake of the amplified upper trough departing the East, severe potential should be low for a couple days. Air mass modification should ensue towards next weekend from the western Gulf northward across the Great Plains. Indications of the next shortwave trough ejecting eastward in the West may increase severe potential into a portion of the Plains towards D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern across the South should persist through mid-week. ...D4-5... Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough over the west TX vicinity at 12Z Wednesday. Non-GFS/GEFS guidance continues to indicate a slower eastward progression through Thursday. This shortwave impulse should phase into a broader upper trough being carved out as a northern-stream wave digs into the Upper Midwest to Midwest. This will yield substantial flow amplification through the troposphere, mainly late Wednesday into Thursday across the East. However, the overall thermodynamic environment should become increasingly limited. Widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States early Wednesday within a stout low-level warm theta-e advection regime. This will undoubtedly hamper downstream destabilization to the northeast on D4. But on the southern flank of this convective plume, strong low-level shear will foster some tornado/wind risk. Guidance such as the 00Z ECMWF and UKMET do indicate appreciable diurnal destabilization in its wake over at least the Sabine Valley to Ark-La-Miss vicinity just ahead of the surface cyclone track. The 00Z ECMWF ensemble still indicates a fair degree of spread on where the cyclone should be by Wednesday evening, from LA to the Mid-South. As such, have maintained a relatively broad 15% area, especially given the intensifying flow fields supporting tornado/wind potential persisting into Wednesday night. Lower-level winds should become very strong by Thursday morning yielding a high shear-low CAPE environment across at least a part of the Southeast into Thursday afternoon. This region appears to have the best chance of adequate boundary-layer heating to support at least a damaging wind threat before the convective band shifts off the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong to very strong low-level flow will also exist farther north into the Upper OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic States where a lower-probability area-of-interest remains evident for D5. ...D6-8... In the wake of the amplified upper trough departing the East, severe potential should be low for a couple days. Air mass modification should ensue towards next weekend from the western Gulf northward across the Great Plains. Indications of the next shortwave trough ejecting eastward in the West may increase severe potential into a portion of the Plains towards D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern across the South should persist through mid-week. ...D4-5... Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough over the west TX vicinity at 12Z Wednesday. Non-GFS/GEFS guidance continues to indicate a slower eastward progression through Thursday. This shortwave impulse should phase into a broader upper trough being carved out as a northern-stream wave digs into the Upper Midwest to Midwest. This will yield substantial flow amplification through the troposphere, mainly late Wednesday into Thursday across the East. However, the overall thermodynamic environment should become increasingly limited. Widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States early Wednesday within a stout low-level warm theta-e advection regime. This will undoubtedly hamper downstream destabilization to the northeast on D4. But on the southern flank of this convective plume, strong low-level shear will foster some tornado/wind risk. Guidance such as the 00Z ECMWF and UKMET do indicate appreciable diurnal destabilization in its wake over at least the Sabine Valley to Ark-La-Miss vicinity just ahead of the surface cyclone track. The 00Z ECMWF ensemble still indicates a fair degree of spread on where the cyclone should be by Wednesday evening, from LA to the Mid-South. As such, have maintained a relatively broad 15% area, especially given the intensifying flow fields supporting tornado/wind potential persisting into Wednesday night. Lower-level winds should become very strong by Thursday morning yielding a high shear-low CAPE environment across at least a part of the Southeast into Thursday afternoon. This region appears to have the best chance of adequate boundary-layer heating to support at least a damaging wind threat before the convective band shifts off the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong to very strong low-level flow will also exist farther north into the Upper OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic States where a lower-probability area-of-interest remains evident for D5. ...D6-8... In the wake of the amplified upper trough departing the East, severe potential should be low for a couple days. Air mass modification should ensue towards next weekend from the western Gulf northward across the Great Plains. Indications of the next shortwave trough ejecting eastward in the West may increase severe potential into a portion of the Plains towards D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern across the South should persist through mid-week. ...D4-5... Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough over the west TX vicinity at 12Z Wednesday. Non-GFS/GEFS guidance continues to indicate a slower eastward progression through Thursday. This shortwave impulse should phase into a broader upper trough being carved out as a northern-stream wave digs into the Upper Midwest to Midwest. This will yield substantial flow amplification through the troposphere, mainly late Wednesday into Thursday across the East. However, the overall thermodynamic environment should become increasingly limited. Widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States early Wednesday within a stout low-level warm theta-e advection regime. This will undoubtedly hamper downstream destabilization to the northeast on D4. But on the southern flank of this convective plume, strong low-level shear will foster some tornado/wind risk. Guidance such as the 00Z ECMWF and UKMET do indicate appreciable diurnal destabilization in its wake over at least the Sabine Valley to Ark-La-Miss vicinity just ahead of the surface cyclone track. The 00Z ECMWF ensemble still indicates a fair degree of spread on where the cyclone should be by Wednesday evening, from LA to the Mid-South. As such, have maintained a relatively broad 15% area, especially given the intensifying flow fields supporting tornado/wind potential persisting into Wednesday night. Lower-level winds should become very strong by Thursday morning yielding a high shear-low CAPE environment across at least a part of the Southeast into Thursday afternoon. This region appears to have the best chance of adequate boundary-layer heating to support at least a damaging wind threat before the convective band shifts off the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong to very strong low-level flow will also exist farther north into the Upper OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic States where a lower-probability area-of-interest remains evident for D5. ...D6-8... In the wake of the amplified upper trough departing the East, severe potential should be low for a couple days. Air mass modification should ensue towards next weekend from the western Gulf northward across the Great Plains. Indications of the next shortwave trough ejecting eastward in the West may increase severe potential into a portion of the Plains towards D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern across the South should persist through mid-week. ...D4-5... Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough over the west TX vicinity at 12Z Wednesday. Non-GFS/GEFS guidance continues to indicate a slower eastward progression through Thursday. This shortwave impulse should phase into a broader upper trough being carved out as a northern-stream wave digs into the Upper Midwest to Midwest. This will yield substantial flow amplification through the troposphere, mainly late Wednesday into Thursday across the East. However, the overall thermodynamic environment should become increasingly limited. Widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States early Wednesday within a stout low-level warm theta-e advection regime. This will undoubtedly hamper downstream destabilization to the northeast on D4. But on the southern flank of this convective plume, strong low-level shear will foster some tornado/wind risk. Guidance such as the 00Z ECMWF and UKMET do indicate appreciable diurnal destabilization in its wake over at least the Sabine Valley to Ark-La-Miss vicinity just ahead of the surface cyclone track. The 00Z ECMWF ensemble still indicates a fair degree of spread on where the cyclone should be by Wednesday evening, from LA to the Mid-South. As such, have maintained a relatively broad 15% area, especially given the intensifying flow fields supporting tornado/wind potential persisting into Wednesday night. Lower-level winds should become very strong by Thursday morning yielding a high shear-low CAPE environment across at least a part of the Southeast into Thursday afternoon. This region appears to have the best chance of adequate boundary-layer heating to support at least a damaging wind threat before the convective band shifts off the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong to very strong low-level flow will also exist farther north into the Upper OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic States where a lower-probability area-of-interest remains evident for D5. ...D6-8... In the wake of the amplified upper trough departing the East, severe potential should be low for a couple days. Air mass modification should ensue towards next weekend from the western Gulf northward across the Great Plains. Indications of the next shortwave trough ejecting eastward in the West may increase severe potential into a portion of the Plains towards D8. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable on Tuesday across most of Texas to the Red and Lower Mississippi River Valleys. A few tornadoes, significant large hail, and damaging winds are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough centered near the AZ/NM/northwest Mexico border area at 12Z Tuesday will likely move gradually eastward into west TX by early Wednesday. Two separate mid-level speed maxes, one curling through the base of the trough and another farther east closer to the northwest Gulf Coast will gradually translate eastward. Primary surface cyclone should become established over the Lower Rio Grande Valley beneath the eastern jet, and eventually drift along a portion of the TX Gulf Coast. ...TX/LA vicinity... Several rounds of deep convection are expected across a large portion of TX towards the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley vicinity during the period. Greater severe weather probabilities may be needed in later outlooks as mesoscale convective details become more clear. For now, have highlighted a broad cat 2-SLGT risk with an embedded significant severe area. Overall convective evolution appears to be messy. Primary convective coverage during the day will likely be tied to the persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime, with regenerative periods of convection continuing through the period. Upper-level winds are progged to be weaker relative to D2-Monday, suggesting that cluster/MCS modes will likely dominate. Nevertheless, a feed of steep mid-level lapse rates will be maintained in convectively undisturbed areas and strong deep-layer shear will persist for embedded supercells. Favorable low-level shear should largely remain focused across the northwest Gulf into the Ark-La-Miss. With signals for robust surface heating in parts of south-southeast TX in the afternoon, the greatest tornado potential may exist into east-southeast TX and far western LA on Tuesday evening. Farther west, convection tied closer to the mid-level shortwave trough and surface trough/dryline should redevelop Tuesday afternoon in west TX. This activity should persist and/or separately develop into central TX Tuesday night. A mix of significant large hail and severe wind gusts should be the primary hazards within this regime. ..Grams.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable on Tuesday across most of Texas to the Red and Lower Mississippi River Valleys. A few tornadoes, significant large hail, and damaging winds are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough centered near the AZ/NM/northwest Mexico border area at 12Z Tuesday will likely move gradually eastward into west TX by early Wednesday. Two separate mid-level speed maxes, one curling through the base of the trough and another farther east closer to the northwest Gulf Coast will gradually translate eastward. Primary surface cyclone should become established over the Lower Rio Grande Valley beneath the eastern jet, and eventually drift along a portion of the TX Gulf Coast. ...TX/LA vicinity... Several rounds of deep convection are expected across a large portion of TX towards the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley vicinity during the period. Greater severe weather probabilities may be needed in later outlooks as mesoscale convective details become more clear. For now, have highlighted a broad cat 2-SLGT risk with an embedded significant severe area. Overall convective evolution appears to be messy. Primary convective coverage during the day will likely be tied to the persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime, with regenerative periods of convection continuing through the period. Upper-level winds are progged to be weaker relative to D2-Monday, suggesting that cluster/MCS modes will likely dominate. Nevertheless, a feed of steep mid-level lapse rates will be maintained in convectively undisturbed areas and strong deep-layer shear will persist for embedded supercells. Favorable low-level shear should largely remain focused across the northwest Gulf into the Ark-La-Miss. With signals for robust surface heating in parts of south-southeast TX in the afternoon, the greatest tornado potential may exist into east-southeast TX and far western LA on Tuesday evening. Farther west, convection tied closer to the mid-level shortwave trough and surface trough/dryline should redevelop Tuesday afternoon in west TX. This activity should persist and/or separately develop into central TX Tuesday night. A mix of significant large hail and severe wind gusts should be the primary hazards within this regime. ..Grams.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable on Tuesday across most of Texas to the Red and Lower Mississippi River Valleys. A few tornadoes, significant large hail, and damaging winds are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough centered near the AZ/NM/northwest Mexico border area at 12Z Tuesday will likely move gradually eastward into west TX by early Wednesday. Two separate mid-level speed maxes, one curling through the base of the trough and another farther east closer to the northwest Gulf Coast will gradually translate eastward. Primary surface cyclone should become established over the Lower Rio Grande Valley beneath the eastern jet, and eventually drift along a portion of the TX Gulf Coast. ...TX/LA vicinity... Several rounds of deep convection are expected across a large portion of TX towards the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley vicinity during the period. Greater severe weather probabilities may be needed in later outlooks as mesoscale convective details become more clear. For now, have highlighted a broad cat 2-SLGT risk with an embedded significant severe area. Overall convective evolution appears to be messy. Primary convective coverage during the day will likely be tied to the persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime, with regenerative periods of convection continuing through the period. Upper-level winds are progged to be weaker relative to D2-Monday, suggesting that cluster/MCS modes will likely dominate. Nevertheless, a feed of steep mid-level lapse rates will be maintained in convectively undisturbed areas and strong deep-layer shear will persist for embedded supercells. Favorable low-level shear should largely remain focused across the northwest Gulf into the Ark-La-Miss. With signals for robust surface heating in parts of south-southeast TX in the afternoon, the greatest tornado potential may exist into east-southeast TX and far western LA on Tuesday evening. Farther west, convection tied closer to the mid-level shortwave trough and surface trough/dryline should redevelop Tuesday afternoon in west TX. This activity should persist and/or separately develop into central TX Tuesday night. A mix of significant large hail and severe wind gusts should be the primary hazards within this regime. ..Grams.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable on Tuesday across most of Texas to the Red and Lower Mississippi River Valleys. A few tornadoes, significant large hail, and damaging winds are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough centered near the AZ/NM/northwest Mexico border area at 12Z Tuesday will likely move gradually eastward into west TX by early Wednesday. Two separate mid-level speed maxes, one curling through the base of the trough and another farther east closer to the northwest Gulf Coast will gradually translate eastward. Primary surface cyclone should become established over the Lower Rio Grande Valley beneath the eastern jet, and eventually drift along a portion of the TX Gulf Coast. ...TX/LA vicinity... Several rounds of deep convection are expected across a large portion of TX towards the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley vicinity during the period. Greater severe weather probabilities may be needed in later outlooks as mesoscale convective details become more clear. For now, have highlighted a broad cat 2-SLGT risk with an embedded significant severe area. Overall convective evolution appears to be messy. Primary convective coverage during the day will likely be tied to the persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime, with regenerative periods of convection continuing through the period. Upper-level winds are progged to be weaker relative to D2-Monday, suggesting that cluster/MCS modes will likely dominate. Nevertheless, a feed of steep mid-level lapse rates will be maintained in convectively undisturbed areas and strong deep-layer shear will persist for embedded supercells. Favorable low-level shear should largely remain focused across the northwest Gulf into the Ark-La-Miss. With signals for robust surface heating in parts of south-southeast TX in the afternoon, the greatest tornado potential may exist into east-southeast TX and far western LA on Tuesday evening. Farther west, convection tied closer to the mid-level shortwave trough and surface trough/dryline should redevelop Tuesday afternoon in west TX. This activity should persist and/or separately develop into central TX Tuesday night. A mix of significant large hail and severe wind gusts should be the primary hazards within this regime. ..Grams.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level trough will amplify across the Southwest into northern Mexico. Moderate mid-level flow ahead of this trough will overspread the southern High Plains. Given the environment in this region will be deeply mixed, some of this stronger mid-level flow should reach the surface with 20+ mph sustained surface winds expected amid single digit relative humidity. Critically dry fuels in this region will support a large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. ..Bentley.. 04/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level trough will amplify across the Southwest into northern Mexico. Moderate mid-level flow ahead of this trough will overspread the southern High Plains. Given the environment in this region will be deeply mixed, some of this stronger mid-level flow should reach the surface with 20+ mph sustained surface winds expected amid single digit relative humidity. Critically dry fuels in this region will support a large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. ..Bentley.. 04/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level trough will amplify across the Southwest into northern Mexico. Moderate mid-level flow ahead of this trough will overspread the southern High Plains. Given the environment in this region will be deeply mixed, some of this stronger mid-level flow should reach the surface with 20+ mph sustained surface winds expected amid single digit relative humidity. Critically dry fuels in this region will support a large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. ..Bentley.. 04/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level trough will amplify across the Southwest into northern Mexico. Moderate mid-level flow ahead of this trough will overspread the southern High Plains. Given the environment in this region will be deeply mixed, some of this stronger mid-level flow should reach the surface with 20+ mph sustained surface winds expected amid single digit relative humidity. Critically dry fuels in this region will support a large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. ..Bentley.. 04/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more