Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough is evident in water vapor imagery this evening within the Great Basin. This feature will continue eastward into the Four Corners by early this morning. An initial speed max is expected to eject into western Kansas. By late afternoon into the evening, another speed max will approach western Oklahoma. Deep low-level moisture is already being observed in the BRO 00Z sounding. Surface observations also show low 70s dewpoint as far north as the DFW Metroplex this evening. As the trough approaches, this moisture should stream northward. The overall synoptic setup indicates a severe weather outbreak occurring this afternoon and extending into the evening and parts of the overnight period. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes are expected, especially in parts of southern Kansas into Oklahoma. Very-large hail of up 2-4 inches can also be expected with intense supercells. Severe gusts may initially be isolated, but storm coverage should increase with time as well as the mode becoming more linear. As this occurs, severe gusts, some up to 80 mph, will become more common. ...Oklahoma into southern Kansas... Intense storms are expected across these areas by late afternoon. Storm coverage is likely to initially be greatest in south-central Kansas given the greater and earlier upper-level forcing. Isolated storms will still be possible along the dryline in western Oklahoma as strong heating in the Texas Panhandle should support dryline circulations that should at least locally erode inhibition. By the evening, greater forcing for ascent will arrive in western Oklahoma. Flow aloft will be nearly perpendicular to the dryline, which will favor a discrete storm mode. Even as the weak Pacific front overtakes the dryline, low-level forcing is not expected to be strong enough to promote substantial upscale growth, especially when coupled with continued strong shear across the boundary. Overall, there appears to be prolonged opportunity for discrete storms to form across western Oklahoma into parts of southern Kansas. While the environment during the afternoon will certainly support intense, long-track tornadoes, concern only grows by early evening. Discrete storms are expected to move eastward into an intensifying low-level jet core in central and eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Surface-based activity will likely persist into the evening and even parts of the overnight, given continued influx of moisture and weak capping. The time frame of greatest concern for intense tornadoes is from 03-06Z across central into northeast Oklahoma. This is a high-end environment. An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk was considered. There remains some lingering uncertainty with regard to the number of intense tornadoes that will occur. An increase in tornado probabilities will certainly be warranted should confidence in coverage and preferred corridors increase. ...Western Kansas into Nebraska...Iowa...Missouri... Convection will likely initiate in western Kansas into southwest Nebraska earlier than elsewhere given the timing of the upper-level forcing. Furthermore, a linear mode should more quickly become established due to the deep layer shear being oriented much more parallel to the initiating boundary than farther south. Buoyancy will generally decrease with northward extent. That being said, moisture will continue to push northward through the day and into the evening. Mid 60s F dewpoints could reach southeast Nebraska. Strong deep-layer and low-level shear will promote an organized line of convection capable of wind damage and QLCS tornadoes (some potentially strong). There is some potential for discrete storms to form ahead of the anticipated line. These storms would pose a greater threat for significant tornadoes. Large to very large hail will likely be more likely in western and central Kansas and coverage of very large hail will be conditional on how long a discrete mode is maintained. ...South Dakota... Richer low-level moisture (upper 50s to perhaps near 60 F dewpoints) will reach portions of central into northwest South Dakota. A narrow zone of instability is expected to develop by the afternoon between the cold and warm front. Large hail and severe gusts will be the main threats, but low-level shear will be sufficient for a tornado or two. ...Edwards Plateau into Texas Rolling Plains... Storm coverage this far south should generally be much more isolated on account of weak and nebulous forcing. However, a strong enough dryline circulation could initiate convection within a strongly unstable and sheared environment. Should storms form, large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. ..Wendt/Darrow.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough is evident in water vapor imagery this evening within the Great Basin. This feature will continue eastward into the Four Corners by early this morning. An initial speed max is expected to eject into western Kansas. By late afternoon into the evening, another speed max will approach western Oklahoma. Deep low-level moisture is already being observed in the BRO 00Z sounding. Surface observations also show low 70s dewpoint as far north as the DFW Metroplex this evening. As the trough approaches, this moisture should stream northward. The overall synoptic setup indicates a severe weather outbreak occurring this afternoon and extending into the evening and parts of the overnight period. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes are expected, especially in parts of southern Kansas into Oklahoma. Very-large hail of up 2-4 inches can also be expected with intense supercells. Severe gusts may initially be isolated, but storm coverage should increase with time as well as the mode becoming more linear. As this occurs, severe gusts, some up to 80 mph, will become more common. ...Oklahoma into southern Kansas... Intense storms are expected across these areas by late afternoon. Storm coverage is likely to initially be greatest in south-central Kansas given the greater and earlier upper-level forcing. Isolated storms will still be possible along the dryline in western Oklahoma as strong heating in the Texas Panhandle should support dryline circulations that should at least locally erode inhibition. By the evening, greater forcing for ascent will arrive in western Oklahoma. Flow aloft will be nearly perpendicular to the dryline, which will favor a discrete storm mode. Even as the weak Pacific front overtakes the dryline, low-level forcing is not expected to be strong enough to promote substantial upscale growth, especially when coupled with continued strong shear across the boundary. Overall, there appears to be prolonged opportunity for discrete storms to form across western Oklahoma into parts of southern Kansas. While the environment during the afternoon will certainly support intense, long-track tornadoes, concern only grows by early evening. Discrete storms are expected to move eastward into an intensifying low-level jet core in central and eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Surface-based activity will likely persist into the evening and even parts of the overnight, given continued influx of moisture and weak capping. The time frame of greatest concern for intense tornadoes is from 03-06Z across central into northeast Oklahoma. This is a high-end environment. An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk was considered. There remains some lingering uncertainty with regard to the number of intense tornadoes that will occur. An increase in tornado probabilities will certainly be warranted should confidence in coverage and preferred corridors increase. ...Western Kansas into Nebraska...Iowa...Missouri... Convection will likely initiate in western Kansas into southwest Nebraska earlier than elsewhere given the timing of the upper-level forcing. Furthermore, a linear mode should more quickly become established due to the deep layer shear being oriented much more parallel to the initiating boundary than farther south. Buoyancy will generally decrease with northward extent. That being said, moisture will continue to push northward through the day and into the evening. Mid 60s F dewpoints could reach southeast Nebraska. Strong deep-layer and low-level shear will promote an organized line of convection capable of wind damage and QLCS tornadoes (some potentially strong). There is some potential for discrete storms to form ahead of the anticipated line. These storms would pose a greater threat for significant tornadoes. Large to very large hail will likely be more likely in western and central Kansas and coverage of very large hail will be conditional on how long a discrete mode is maintained. ...South Dakota... Richer low-level moisture (upper 50s to perhaps near 60 F dewpoints) will reach portions of central into northwest South Dakota. A narrow zone of instability is expected to develop by the afternoon between the cold and warm front. Large hail and severe gusts will be the main threats, but low-level shear will be sufficient for a tornado or two. ...Edwards Plateau into Texas Rolling Plains... Storm coverage this far south should generally be much more isolated on account of weak and nebulous forcing. However, a strong enough dryline circulation could initiate convection within a strongly unstable and sheared environment. Should storms form, large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. ..Wendt/Darrow.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough is evident in water vapor imagery this evening within the Great Basin. This feature will continue eastward into the Four Corners by early this morning. An initial speed max is expected to eject into western Kansas. By late afternoon into the evening, another speed max will approach western Oklahoma. Deep low-level moisture is already being observed in the BRO 00Z sounding. Surface observations also show low 70s dewpoint as far north as the DFW Metroplex this evening. As the trough approaches, this moisture should stream northward. The overall synoptic setup indicates a severe weather outbreak occurring this afternoon and extending into the evening and parts of the overnight period. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes are expected, especially in parts of southern Kansas into Oklahoma. Very-large hail of up 2-4 inches can also be expected with intense supercells. Severe gusts may initially be isolated, but storm coverage should increase with time as well as the mode becoming more linear. As this occurs, severe gusts, some up to 80 mph, will become more common. ...Oklahoma into southern Kansas... Intense storms are expected across these areas by late afternoon. Storm coverage is likely to initially be greatest in south-central Kansas given the greater and earlier upper-level forcing. Isolated storms will still be possible along the dryline in western Oklahoma as strong heating in the Texas Panhandle should support dryline circulations that should at least locally erode inhibition. By the evening, greater forcing for ascent will arrive in western Oklahoma. Flow aloft will be nearly perpendicular to the dryline, which will favor a discrete storm mode. Even as the weak Pacific front overtakes the dryline, low-level forcing is not expected to be strong enough to promote substantial upscale growth, especially when coupled with continued strong shear across the boundary. Overall, there appears to be prolonged opportunity for discrete storms to form across western Oklahoma into parts of southern Kansas. While the environment during the afternoon will certainly support intense, long-track tornadoes, concern only grows by early evening. Discrete storms are expected to move eastward into an intensifying low-level jet core in central and eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Surface-based activity will likely persist into the evening and even parts of the overnight, given continued influx of moisture and weak capping. The time frame of greatest concern for intense tornadoes is from 03-06Z across central into northeast Oklahoma. This is a high-end environment. An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk was considered. There remains some lingering uncertainty with regard to the number of intense tornadoes that will occur. An increase in tornado probabilities will certainly be warranted should confidence in coverage and preferred corridors increase. ...Western Kansas into Nebraska...Iowa...Missouri... Convection will likely initiate in western Kansas into southwest Nebraska earlier than elsewhere given the timing of the upper-level forcing. Furthermore, a linear mode should more quickly become established due to the deep layer shear being oriented much more parallel to the initiating boundary than farther south. Buoyancy will generally decrease with northward extent. That being said, moisture will continue to push northward through the day and into the evening. Mid 60s F dewpoints could reach southeast Nebraska. Strong deep-layer and low-level shear will promote an organized line of convection capable of wind damage and QLCS tornadoes (some potentially strong). There is some potential for discrete storms to form ahead of the anticipated line. These storms would pose a greater threat for significant tornadoes. Large to very large hail will likely be more likely in western and central Kansas and coverage of very large hail will be conditional on how long a discrete mode is maintained. ...South Dakota... Richer low-level moisture (upper 50s to perhaps near 60 F dewpoints) will reach portions of central into northwest South Dakota. A narrow zone of instability is expected to develop by the afternoon between the cold and warm front. Large hail and severe gusts will be the main threats, but low-level shear will be sufficient for a tornado or two. ...Edwards Plateau into Texas Rolling Plains... Storm coverage this far south should generally be much more isolated on account of weak and nebulous forcing. However, a strong enough dryline circulation could initiate convection within a strongly unstable and sheared environment. Should storms form, large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. ..Wendt/Darrow.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough is evident in water vapor imagery this evening within the Great Basin. This feature will continue eastward into the Four Corners by early this morning. An initial speed max is expected to eject into western Kansas. By late afternoon into the evening, another speed max will approach western Oklahoma. Deep low-level moisture is already being observed in the BRO 00Z sounding. Surface observations also show low 70s dewpoint as far north as the DFW Metroplex this evening. As the trough approaches, this moisture should stream northward. The overall synoptic setup indicates a severe weather outbreak occurring this afternoon and extending into the evening and parts of the overnight period. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes are expected, especially in parts of southern Kansas into Oklahoma. Very-large hail of up 2-4 inches can also be expected with intense supercells. Severe gusts may initially be isolated, but storm coverage should increase with time as well as the mode becoming more linear. As this occurs, severe gusts, some up to 80 mph, will become more common. ...Oklahoma into southern Kansas... Intense storms are expected across these areas by late afternoon. Storm coverage is likely to initially be greatest in south-central Kansas given the greater and earlier upper-level forcing. Isolated storms will still be possible along the dryline in western Oklahoma as strong heating in the Texas Panhandle should support dryline circulations that should at least locally erode inhibition. By the evening, greater forcing for ascent will arrive in western Oklahoma. Flow aloft will be nearly perpendicular to the dryline, which will favor a discrete storm mode. Even as the weak Pacific front overtakes the dryline, low-level forcing is not expected to be strong enough to promote substantial upscale growth, especially when coupled with continued strong shear across the boundary. Overall, there appears to be prolonged opportunity for discrete storms to form across western Oklahoma into parts of southern Kansas. While the environment during the afternoon will certainly support intense, long-track tornadoes, concern only grows by early evening. Discrete storms are expected to move eastward into an intensifying low-level jet core in central and eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Surface-based activity will likely persist into the evening and even parts of the overnight, given continued influx of moisture and weak capping. The time frame of greatest concern for intense tornadoes is from 03-06Z across central into northeast Oklahoma. This is a high-end environment. An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk was considered. There remains some lingering uncertainty with regard to the number of intense tornadoes that will occur. An increase in tornado probabilities will certainly be warranted should confidence in coverage and preferred corridors increase. ...Western Kansas into Nebraska...Iowa...Missouri... Convection will likely initiate in western Kansas into southwest Nebraska earlier than elsewhere given the timing of the upper-level forcing. Furthermore, a linear mode should more quickly become established due to the deep layer shear being oriented much more parallel to the initiating boundary than farther south. Buoyancy will generally decrease with northward extent. That being said, moisture will continue to push northward through the day and into the evening. Mid 60s F dewpoints could reach southeast Nebraska. Strong deep-layer and low-level shear will promote an organized line of convection capable of wind damage and QLCS tornadoes (some potentially strong). There is some potential for discrete storms to form ahead of the anticipated line. These storms would pose a greater threat for significant tornadoes. Large to very large hail will likely be more likely in western and central Kansas and coverage of very large hail will be conditional on how long a discrete mode is maintained. ...South Dakota... Richer low-level moisture (upper 50s to perhaps near 60 F dewpoints) will reach portions of central into northwest South Dakota. A narrow zone of instability is expected to develop by the afternoon between the cold and warm front. Large hail and severe gusts will be the main threats, but low-level shear will be sufficient for a tornado or two. ...Edwards Plateau into Texas Rolling Plains... Storm coverage this far south should generally be much more isolated on account of weak and nebulous forcing. However, a strong enough dryline circulation could initiate convection within a strongly unstable and sheared environment. Should storms form, large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. ..Wendt/Darrow.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough is evident in water vapor imagery this evening within the Great Basin. This feature will continue eastward into the Four Corners by early this morning. An initial speed max is expected to eject into western Kansas. By late afternoon into the evening, another speed max will approach western Oklahoma. Deep low-level moisture is already being observed in the BRO 00Z sounding. Surface observations also show low 70s dewpoint as far north as the DFW Metroplex this evening. As the trough approaches, this moisture should stream northward. The overall synoptic setup indicates a severe weather outbreak occurring this afternoon and extending into the evening and parts of the overnight period. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes are expected, especially in parts of southern Kansas into Oklahoma. Very-large hail of up 2-4 inches can also be expected with intense supercells. Severe gusts may initially be isolated, but storm coverage should increase with time as well as the mode becoming more linear. As this occurs, severe gusts, some up to 80 mph, will become more common. ...Oklahoma into southern Kansas... Intense storms are expected across these areas by late afternoon. Storm coverage is likely to initially be greatest in south-central Kansas given the greater and earlier upper-level forcing. Isolated storms will still be possible along the dryline in western Oklahoma as strong heating in the Texas Panhandle should support dryline circulations that should at least locally erode inhibition. By the evening, greater forcing for ascent will arrive in western Oklahoma. Flow aloft will be nearly perpendicular to the dryline, which will favor a discrete storm mode. Even as the weak Pacific front overtakes the dryline, low-level forcing is not expected to be strong enough to promote substantial upscale growth, especially when coupled with continued strong shear across the boundary. Overall, there appears to be prolonged opportunity for discrete storms to form across western Oklahoma into parts of southern Kansas. While the environment during the afternoon will certainly support intense, long-track tornadoes, concern only grows by early evening. Discrete storms are expected to move eastward into an intensifying low-level jet core in central and eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Surface-based activity will likely persist into the evening and even parts of the overnight, given continued influx of moisture and weak capping. The time frame of greatest concern for intense tornadoes is from 03-06Z across central into northeast Oklahoma. This is a high-end environment. An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk was considered. There remains some lingering uncertainty with regard to the number of intense tornadoes that will occur. An increase in tornado probabilities will certainly be warranted should confidence in coverage and preferred corridors increase. ...Western Kansas into Nebraska...Iowa...Missouri... Convection will likely initiate in western Kansas into southwest Nebraska earlier than elsewhere given the timing of the upper-level forcing. Furthermore, a linear mode should more quickly become established due to the deep layer shear being oriented much more parallel to the initiating boundary than farther south. Buoyancy will generally decrease with northward extent. That being said, moisture will continue to push northward through the day and into the evening. Mid 60s F dewpoints could reach southeast Nebraska. Strong deep-layer and low-level shear will promote an organized line of convection capable of wind damage and QLCS tornadoes (some potentially strong). There is some potential for discrete storms to form ahead of the anticipated line. These storms would pose a greater threat for significant tornadoes. Large to very large hail will likely be more likely in western and central Kansas and coverage of very large hail will be conditional on how long a discrete mode is maintained. ...South Dakota... Richer low-level moisture (upper 50s to perhaps near 60 F dewpoints) will reach portions of central into northwest South Dakota. A narrow zone of instability is expected to develop by the afternoon between the cold and warm front. Large hail and severe gusts will be the main threats, but low-level shear will be sufficient for a tornado or two. ...Edwards Plateau into Texas Rolling Plains... Storm coverage this far south should generally be much more isolated on account of weak and nebulous forcing. However, a strong enough dryline circulation could initiate convection within a strongly unstable and sheared environment. Should storms form, large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. ..Wendt/Darrow.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough is evident in water vapor imagery this evening within the Great Basin. This feature will continue eastward into the Four Corners by early this morning. An initial speed max is expected to eject into western Kansas. By late afternoon into the evening, another speed max will approach western Oklahoma. Deep low-level moisture is already being observed in the BRO 00Z sounding. Surface observations also show low 70s dewpoint as far north as the DFW Metroplex this evening. As the trough approaches, this moisture should stream northward. The overall synoptic setup indicates a severe weather outbreak occurring this afternoon and extending into the evening and parts of the overnight period. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes are expected, especially in parts of southern Kansas into Oklahoma. Very-large hail of up 2-4 inches can also be expected with intense supercells. Severe gusts may initially be isolated, but storm coverage should increase with time as well as the mode becoming more linear. As this occurs, severe gusts, some up to 80 mph, will become more common. ...Oklahoma into southern Kansas... Intense storms are expected across these areas by late afternoon. Storm coverage is likely to initially be greatest in south-central Kansas given the greater and earlier upper-level forcing. Isolated storms will still be possible along the dryline in western Oklahoma as strong heating in the Texas Panhandle should support dryline circulations that should at least locally erode inhibition. By the evening, greater forcing for ascent will arrive in western Oklahoma. Flow aloft will be nearly perpendicular to the dryline, which will favor a discrete storm mode. Even as the weak Pacific front overtakes the dryline, low-level forcing is not expected to be strong enough to promote substantial upscale growth, especially when coupled with continued strong shear across the boundary. Overall, there appears to be prolonged opportunity for discrete storms to form across western Oklahoma into parts of southern Kansas. While the environment during the afternoon will certainly support intense, long-track tornadoes, concern only grows by early evening. Discrete storms are expected to move eastward into an intensifying low-level jet core in central and eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Surface-based activity will likely persist into the evening and even parts of the overnight, given continued influx of moisture and weak capping. The time frame of greatest concern for intense tornadoes is from 03-06Z across central into northeast Oklahoma. This is a high-end environment. An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk was considered. There remains some lingering uncertainty with regard to the number of intense tornadoes that will occur. An increase in tornado probabilities will certainly be warranted should confidence in coverage and preferred corridors increase. ...Western Kansas into Nebraska...Iowa...Missouri... Convection will likely initiate in western Kansas into southwest Nebraska earlier than elsewhere given the timing of the upper-level forcing. Furthermore, a linear mode should more quickly become established due to the deep layer shear being oriented much more parallel to the initiating boundary than farther south. Buoyancy will generally decrease with northward extent. That being said, moisture will continue to push northward through the day and into the evening. Mid 60s F dewpoints could reach southeast Nebraska. Strong deep-layer and low-level shear will promote an organized line of convection capable of wind damage and QLCS tornadoes (some potentially strong). There is some potential for discrete storms to form ahead of the anticipated line. These storms would pose a greater threat for significant tornadoes. Large to very large hail will likely be more likely in western and central Kansas and coverage of very large hail will be conditional on how long a discrete mode is maintained. ...South Dakota... Richer low-level moisture (upper 50s to perhaps near 60 F dewpoints) will reach portions of central into northwest South Dakota. A narrow zone of instability is expected to develop by the afternoon between the cold and warm front. Large hail and severe gusts will be the main threats, but low-level shear will be sufficient for a tornado or two. ...Edwards Plateau into Texas Rolling Plains... Storm coverage this far south should generally be much more isolated on account of weak and nebulous forcing. However, a strong enough dryline circulation could initiate convection within a strongly unstable and sheared environment. Should storms form, large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. ..Wendt/Darrow.. 05/06/2024 Read more

MD 0645 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0645 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Areas affected...parts of the eastern Arkansas/northern Mississippi vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060319Z - 060445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of stronger storms may become capable of marginal hail, strong wind gusts, and/or a brief tornado. Limited/isolated nature of the threat is expected to preclude the need for WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an increase in convective coverage across the Mississippi Delta region, with one storm having acquired a noted rotational signature via KLZK WSR-88D storm-relative velocity data. The storms are occurring in a zone of QG ascent -- near a well-defined low moving across northwestern Arkansas per WV imagery, near the nose of a 40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet. While deep-layer flow remains generally modest, the enhanced low-level shear being provided by the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet suggests appears to be aiding in storm organization/rotation. With the storms on the northern fringe of a more unstable airmass to the south, ample buoyancy combined with the aforementioned favorable ascent should support a continuation of storms, with some increase in coverage possible as convection shifts eastward into northern Mississippi and southwestern Tennessee. However, with severe risk expected to remain limited, WW issuance appears likely to remain unnecessary. ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34139145 34709125 35049026 35028910 34688847 33588896 33369121 34139145 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe storms may continue for another hour or two this evening in Deep South Texas and parts of the Mid-South. ...01Z Update... Convection within Deep South Texas is nearly offshore. Isolated damaging winds may occur prior that occurring. In the Mid-South, convection along the southern flank of an MCV/shortwave trough has shown some signs of low-level rotation. Though this convection is weak and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, isolated wind damage and a brief tornado could occur in the next 1-2 hours before storms weaken. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe storms may continue for another hour or two this evening in Deep South Texas and parts of the Mid-South. ...01Z Update... Convection within Deep South Texas is nearly offshore. Isolated damaging winds may occur prior that occurring. In the Mid-South, convection along the southern flank of an MCV/shortwave trough has shown some signs of low-level rotation. Though this convection is weak and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, isolated wind damage and a brief tornado could occur in the next 1-2 hours before storms weaken. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe storms may continue for another hour or two this evening in Deep South Texas and parts of the Mid-South. ...01Z Update... Convection within Deep South Texas is nearly offshore. Isolated damaging winds may occur prior that occurring. In the Mid-South, convection along the southern flank of an MCV/shortwave trough has shown some signs of low-level rotation. Though this convection is weak and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, isolated wind damage and a brief tornado could occur in the next 1-2 hours before storms weaken. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe storms may continue for another hour or two this evening in Deep South Texas and parts of the Mid-South. ...01Z Update... Convection within Deep South Texas is nearly offshore. Isolated damaging winds may occur prior that occurring. In the Mid-South, convection along the southern flank of an MCV/shortwave trough has shown some signs of low-level rotation. Though this convection is weak and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, isolated wind damage and a brief tornado could occur in the next 1-2 hours before storms weaken. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe storms may continue for another hour or two this evening in Deep South Texas and parts of the Mid-South. ...01Z Update... Convection within Deep South Texas is nearly offshore. Isolated damaging winds may occur prior that occurring. In the Mid-South, convection along the southern flank of an MCV/shortwave trough has shown some signs of low-level rotation. Though this convection is weak and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, isolated wind damage and a brief tornado could occur in the next 1-2 hours before storms weaken. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe storms may continue for another hour or two this evening in Deep South Texas and parts of the Mid-South. ...01Z Update... Convection within Deep South Texas is nearly offshore. Isolated damaging winds may occur prior that occurring. In the Mid-South, convection along the southern flank of an MCV/shortwave trough has shown some signs of low-level rotation. Though this convection is weak and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, isolated wind damage and a brief tornado could occur in the next 1-2 hours before storms weaken. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe storms may continue for another hour or two this evening in Deep South Texas and parts of the Mid-South. ...01Z Update... Convection within Deep South Texas is nearly offshore. Isolated damaging winds may occur prior that occurring. In the Mid-South, convection along the southern flank of an MCV/shortwave trough has shown some signs of low-level rotation. Though this convection is weak and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, isolated wind damage and a brief tornado could occur in the next 1-2 hours before storms weaken. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe storms may continue for another hour or two this evening in Deep South Texas and parts of the Mid-South. ...01Z Update... Convection within Deep South Texas is nearly offshore. Isolated damaging winds may occur prior that occurring. In the Mid-South, convection along the southern flank of an MCV/shortwave trough has shown some signs of low-level rotation. Though this convection is weak and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, isolated wind damage and a brief tornado could occur in the next 1-2 hours before storms weaken. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 5 23:18:04 UTC 2024.

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ALI TO 35 W NIR TO 15 SSE NIR. ..GOSS..05/05/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC025-089-131-249-273-297-355-409-060040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEE COLORADO DUVAL JIM WELLS KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES SAN PATRICIO GMZ231-232-250-270-060040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GMZ231 GMZ232 GMZ250 GMZ270 THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 186 SEVERE TSTM TX 051805Z - 060000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 186 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-central Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely continue to develop through the early and mid afternoon across the Watch area. Ample high-level flow and a moist and unstable airmass will support organized storms, including supercells and multicells. Large to very large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west northwest of Cotulla TX to 35 miles north northeast of Palacios TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Smith Read more

MD 0644 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186... FOR SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0644 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Areas affected...South Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186... Valid 052146Z - 052315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186 continues. SUMMARY...An organized/bowing cluster of storms over South Texas will continue to pose local risk for hail and damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows bowing cluster of strong storms moving southeastward across Deep South Texas at around 25 kt. The storms are being fed by around 30 kt southeasterly low-level inflow per the latest CRP WSR-88D VWP, which -- along with ample downstream instability -- suggests that the storms will be sustained over the next hour or two, with continued southeastward movement. With that said, indications are that capping is stronger to the south, which may hinder the advance of the convection on the southern end to some degree. As such, while storms are on a trajectory to move into portions of the BRO CWA, new WW south of the existing watch may not be needed, though we will continue to monitor convective evolution in the near term, in that regard. ..Goss.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 27889950 28489860 28299724 27759679 26749721 27049864 27499915 27889950 Read more

MD 0643 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK INTO NORTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0643 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Areas affected...Northeast TX/southeast OK into northern LA and southern/central AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052014Z - 052215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for a brief tornado or two could evolve late this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Clearing in the wake of earlier convection is allowing for airmass recovery across northern LA and southern AR. Persistent low-level theta-e advection in advance of a weak surface low across northeast TX may allow for storm redevelopment later this afternoon, within an effective warm frontal zone. With some midlevel drying expected in the wake of the ejecting shortwave trough across AR, the number and intensity of storms later this afternoon remains uncertain. However, increasing moisture/instability and relatively favorable low-level shear/SRH (as noted on the KSHV and KLZK VWPs) could support brief tornado potential with any longer-lived cells late this afternoon into early evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds will also be possible. At this time, the threat is expected to remain rather marginal and isolated, rendering the need for watch issuance uncertain. Trends will be closely monitored for the development of a supercell or two later this afternoon. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 32409427 32499497 33299518 34129536 34329461 34869290 34099140 33459123 32979126 32149166 31889191 31709220 31829266 31979300 32149349 32309394 32409427 Read more