Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track (as outlined below) with only minor adjustments required to account for trends in recent high-res guidance as well as rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours across portions of western TX and far southwest KS. The Elevated risk area was extended northward into portions of southeast CO/southwest KS, and elevated fire weather conditions appear likely even further north along the central to northern High Plains of CO and WY. However, latest analyses suggests fuels are not as dry with northward extent, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire-weather pattern will continue on D2/Monday as a powerful mid-level trough ejects through the Central Plains. Associated dry, windy conditions to the west of a dryline will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across central/eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. By peak heating on Tuesday afternoon, the mid-level trough is expected to become negatively tilted and centered from eastern MT southeastward through central NE/KS. Upstream of the trough axis, a belt of 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level flow is expected from northeastern AZ through the TX/OK Panhandles. Downward momentum mixing, in conjunction with a tightening surface pressure gradient and strong isallobaric flow, will yield persistent and strong surface flow around 20-30 mph during the afternoon and evening. Very dry conditions are also anticipated, with relative humidities as low as 5-10 percent. As a result, high confidence exists in critical meteorological fire-weather conditions across the delineated area. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible, but a few factors preclude highlighting a specific area, including: 1. local fuel state due to bands of wetting precipitation from thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday morning, and, 2. whether sustained surface winds will meet extremely critical conditions (30+ mph) for an extended period of time. Elevated/critical meteorological fire-weather conditions will likely develop to the northeast (e.g., southeastern CO and southwestern KS) and east (e.g., eastern TX/OK Panhandles) of the delineated areas as the dryline mixes eastward on Monday. However, much of these areas received around 0.5+ inches of precipitation recently, which should temper the fire-weather threat immediately behind the dryline. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track (as outlined below) with only minor adjustments required to account for trends in recent high-res guidance as well as rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours across portions of western TX and far southwest KS. The Elevated risk area was extended northward into portions of southeast CO/southwest KS, and elevated fire weather conditions appear likely even further north along the central to northern High Plains of CO and WY. However, latest analyses suggests fuels are not as dry with northward extent, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire-weather pattern will continue on D2/Monday as a powerful mid-level trough ejects through the Central Plains. Associated dry, windy conditions to the west of a dryline will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across central/eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. By peak heating on Tuesday afternoon, the mid-level trough is expected to become negatively tilted and centered from eastern MT southeastward through central NE/KS. Upstream of the trough axis, a belt of 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level flow is expected from northeastern AZ through the TX/OK Panhandles. Downward momentum mixing, in conjunction with a tightening surface pressure gradient and strong isallobaric flow, will yield persistent and strong surface flow around 20-30 mph during the afternoon and evening. Very dry conditions are also anticipated, with relative humidities as low as 5-10 percent. As a result, high confidence exists in critical meteorological fire-weather conditions across the delineated area. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible, but a few factors preclude highlighting a specific area, including: 1. local fuel state due to bands of wetting precipitation from thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday morning, and, 2. whether sustained surface winds will meet extremely critical conditions (30+ mph) for an extended period of time. Elevated/critical meteorological fire-weather conditions will likely develop to the northeast (e.g., southeastern CO and southwestern KS) and east (e.g., eastern TX/OK Panhandles) of the delineated areas as the dryline mixes eastward on Monday. However, much of these areas received around 0.5+ inches of precipitation recently, which should temper the fire-weather threat immediately behind the dryline. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track (as outlined below) with only minor adjustments required to account for trends in recent high-res guidance as well as rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours across portions of western TX and far southwest KS. The Elevated risk area was extended northward into portions of southeast CO/southwest KS, and elevated fire weather conditions appear likely even further north along the central to northern High Plains of CO and WY. However, latest analyses suggests fuels are not as dry with northward extent, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire-weather pattern will continue on D2/Monday as a powerful mid-level trough ejects through the Central Plains. Associated dry, windy conditions to the west of a dryline will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across central/eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. By peak heating on Tuesday afternoon, the mid-level trough is expected to become negatively tilted and centered from eastern MT southeastward through central NE/KS. Upstream of the trough axis, a belt of 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level flow is expected from northeastern AZ through the TX/OK Panhandles. Downward momentum mixing, in conjunction with a tightening surface pressure gradient and strong isallobaric flow, will yield persistent and strong surface flow around 20-30 mph during the afternoon and evening. Very dry conditions are also anticipated, with relative humidities as low as 5-10 percent. As a result, high confidence exists in critical meteorological fire-weather conditions across the delineated area. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible, but a few factors preclude highlighting a specific area, including: 1. local fuel state due to bands of wetting precipitation from thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday morning, and, 2. whether sustained surface winds will meet extremely critical conditions (30+ mph) for an extended period of time. Elevated/critical meteorological fire-weather conditions will likely develop to the northeast (e.g., southeastern CO and southwestern KS) and east (e.g., eastern TX/OK Panhandles) of the delineated areas as the dryline mixes eastward on Monday. However, much of these areas received around 0.5+ inches of precipitation recently, which should temper the fire-weather threat immediately behind the dryline. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track (as outlined below) with only minor adjustments required to account for trends in recent high-res guidance as well as rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours across portions of western TX and far southwest KS. The Elevated risk area was extended northward into portions of southeast CO/southwest KS, and elevated fire weather conditions appear likely even further north along the central to northern High Plains of CO and WY. However, latest analyses suggests fuels are not as dry with northward extent, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire-weather pattern will continue on D2/Monday as a powerful mid-level trough ejects through the Central Plains. Associated dry, windy conditions to the west of a dryline will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across central/eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. By peak heating on Tuesday afternoon, the mid-level trough is expected to become negatively tilted and centered from eastern MT southeastward through central NE/KS. Upstream of the trough axis, a belt of 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level flow is expected from northeastern AZ through the TX/OK Panhandles. Downward momentum mixing, in conjunction with a tightening surface pressure gradient and strong isallobaric flow, will yield persistent and strong surface flow around 20-30 mph during the afternoon and evening. Very dry conditions are also anticipated, with relative humidities as low as 5-10 percent. As a result, high confidence exists in critical meteorological fire-weather conditions across the delineated area. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible, but a few factors preclude highlighting a specific area, including: 1. local fuel state due to bands of wetting precipitation from thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday morning, and, 2. whether sustained surface winds will meet extremely critical conditions (30+ mph) for an extended period of time. Elevated/critical meteorological fire-weather conditions will likely develop to the northeast (e.g., southeastern CO and southwestern KS) and east (e.g., eastern TX/OK Panhandles) of the delineated areas as the dryline mixes eastward on Monday. However, much of these areas received around 0.5+ inches of precipitation recently, which should temper the fire-weather threat immediately behind the dryline. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0186 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Upper cyclone apparent in Sunday morning satellite imagery over northern/central CA and the western Great Basin is expected to devolve into an open wave as it progresses eastward. This wave is forecast to continue eastward through the central Rockies and into the central Plains on Monday, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central Plains early Monday and into the southern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Additional maturing into a closed mid-latitude cyclone is possible across the northern High Plains late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. Progression of this shortwave trough will contribute to significant mass response across the Plains, with strong low-level moisture advection resulting in mid 60s dewpoints to the OK/KS border by the early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach into eastern NE by the late afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates/cold mid-level temperatures will result in a moderate to strongly unstable airmass ahead of the approaching shortwave across much of OK, KS, and NE. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop as this wave interacts with this airmass, beginning during the late morning/early afternoon across SD/NE and then expanding southward across KS into OK throughout the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Significant-severe weather is possible, including the potential for giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, gusts around 80 mph, and strong/potentially long-track tornadoes. ...Much of central/eastern NE and south-central/southeast SD into western/northern/eastern KS and western MO... Strong height falls associated with this system will likely begin early Monday across NE and western/northern KS, interacting with the moderately moist and buoyant air mass expected to be in place. The cold front associated with this system will likely be moving through western NE and KS during this period as well. This initial development may not be overly strong, with the primary strengthening likely delayed until the afternoon over central NE and north-central KS where better low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy will be in place. Given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector and linear forcing along the front, relatively quick upscale growth into an organized convective line appears likely. This line would then track quickly eastward/southeastward through the evening and overnight. Large to very large hail around 2" to 2.5" in diameter is possible with the initial more cellular development. Primary threat will transition to severe gusts around 80 mph once the convective line organizes and consolidates, which appears likely during the afternoon. Additionally, despite the transition to a more linear mode, the tornado threat is expected to increase with eastern extent, supported by both an increase in low-level moisture/buoyancy and strengthening low-level kinematic fields. The greater damaging gust threat will likely extend into more far eastern KS and western MO, and the higher wind probabilities were expanded eastward to account for this potential. Some minor southeastward expansion of the 10% tornado probabilities was made as well. ...Much of OK and adjacent portions of central/southern KS and far northwest/north-central TX... Height falls are expected to arrive later, and be more modest, across OK and adjacent central/south KS than areas farther north. Some capping appears likely through around 18Z as well. However, continued low-level moisture advection coupled with daytime heating is expected to result in air mass destabilization just as the height falls/large-scale ascent move into the region. This scenario appears to favor a discrete storm mode from south-central KS into southwest OK. Overall coverage may be limited, particularly until 00Z, but any storms that develop should quickly become supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, severe gusts to 80 mph, and strong tornadoes. Additionally, forecast hodographs are quite long, with little mid-level weakness. Mean storm motion is around 50 kt from 21 to 00Z, with Bunkers right motion around 30 kt. This should be more than sufficient for storms to remain discrete and maintain supercell characteristics. This also contributes to a greater potential for long-track tornadoes. The tornado threat will persist pass sunset and into the evening, supported by the persistence of ample low-level moisture/buoyancy and a strengthening low-level jet. Most current guidance maximizes the STP at 8-10 around 03Z over south-central OK. A threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue Monday night into early Tuesday with eastward extent into eastern OK and western AR given a sufficiently unstable and strongly sheared environment. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Upper cyclone apparent in Sunday morning satellite imagery over northern/central CA and the western Great Basin is expected to devolve into an open wave as it progresses eastward. This wave is forecast to continue eastward through the central Rockies and into the central Plains on Monday, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central Plains early Monday and into the southern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Additional maturing into a closed mid-latitude cyclone is possible across the northern High Plains late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. Progression of this shortwave trough will contribute to significant mass response across the Plains, with strong low-level moisture advection resulting in mid 60s dewpoints to the OK/KS border by the early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach into eastern NE by the late afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates/cold mid-level temperatures will result in a moderate to strongly unstable airmass ahead of the approaching shortwave across much of OK, KS, and NE. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop as this wave interacts with this airmass, beginning during the late morning/early afternoon across SD/NE and then expanding southward across KS into OK throughout the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Significant-severe weather is possible, including the potential for giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, gusts around 80 mph, and strong/potentially long-track tornadoes. ...Much of central/eastern NE and south-central/southeast SD into western/northern/eastern KS and western MO... Strong height falls associated with this system will likely begin early Monday across NE and western/northern KS, interacting with the moderately moist and buoyant air mass expected to be in place. The cold front associated with this system will likely be moving through western NE and KS during this period as well. This initial development may not be overly strong, with the primary strengthening likely delayed until the afternoon over central NE and north-central KS where better low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy will be in place. Given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector and linear forcing along the front, relatively quick upscale growth into an organized convective line appears likely. This line would then track quickly eastward/southeastward through the evening and overnight. Large to very large hail around 2" to 2.5" in diameter is possible with the initial more cellular development. Primary threat will transition to severe gusts around 80 mph once the convective line organizes and consolidates, which appears likely during the afternoon. Additionally, despite the transition to a more linear mode, the tornado threat is expected to increase with eastern extent, supported by both an increase in low-level moisture/buoyancy and strengthening low-level kinematic fields. The greater damaging gust threat will likely extend into more far eastern KS and western MO, and the higher wind probabilities were expanded eastward to account for this potential. Some minor southeastward expansion of the 10% tornado probabilities was made as well. ...Much of OK and adjacent portions of central/southern KS and far northwest/north-central TX... Height falls are expected to arrive later, and be more modest, across OK and adjacent central/south KS than areas farther north. Some capping appears likely through around 18Z as well. However, continued low-level moisture advection coupled with daytime heating is expected to result in air mass destabilization just as the height falls/large-scale ascent move into the region. This scenario appears to favor a discrete storm mode from south-central KS into southwest OK. Overall coverage may be limited, particularly until 00Z, but any storms that develop should quickly become supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, severe gusts to 80 mph, and strong tornadoes. Additionally, forecast hodographs are quite long, with little mid-level weakness. Mean storm motion is around 50 kt from 21 to 00Z, with Bunkers right motion around 30 kt. This should be more than sufficient for storms to remain discrete and maintain supercell characteristics. This also contributes to a greater potential for long-track tornadoes. The tornado threat will persist pass sunset and into the evening, supported by the persistence of ample low-level moisture/buoyancy and a strengthening low-level jet. Most current guidance maximizes the STP at 8-10 around 03Z over south-central OK. A threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue Monday night into early Tuesday with eastward extent into eastern OK and western AR given a sufficiently unstable and strongly sheared environment. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Upper cyclone apparent in Sunday morning satellite imagery over northern/central CA and the western Great Basin is expected to devolve into an open wave as it progresses eastward. This wave is forecast to continue eastward through the central Rockies and into the central Plains on Monday, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central Plains early Monday and into the southern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Additional maturing into a closed mid-latitude cyclone is possible across the northern High Plains late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. Progression of this shortwave trough will contribute to significant mass response across the Plains, with strong low-level moisture advection resulting in mid 60s dewpoints to the OK/KS border by the early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach into eastern NE by the late afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates/cold mid-level temperatures will result in a moderate to strongly unstable airmass ahead of the approaching shortwave across much of OK, KS, and NE. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop as this wave interacts with this airmass, beginning during the late morning/early afternoon across SD/NE and then expanding southward across KS into OK throughout the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Significant-severe weather is possible, including the potential for giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, gusts around 80 mph, and strong/potentially long-track tornadoes. ...Much of central/eastern NE and south-central/southeast SD into western/northern/eastern KS and western MO... Strong height falls associated with this system will likely begin early Monday across NE and western/northern KS, interacting with the moderately moist and buoyant air mass expected to be in place. The cold front associated with this system will likely be moving through western NE and KS during this period as well. This initial development may not be overly strong, with the primary strengthening likely delayed until the afternoon over central NE and north-central KS where better low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy will be in place. Given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector and linear forcing along the front, relatively quick upscale growth into an organized convective line appears likely. This line would then track quickly eastward/southeastward through the evening and overnight. Large to very large hail around 2" to 2.5" in diameter is possible with the initial more cellular development. Primary threat will transition to severe gusts around 80 mph once the convective line organizes and consolidates, which appears likely during the afternoon. Additionally, despite the transition to a more linear mode, the tornado threat is expected to increase with eastern extent, supported by both an increase in low-level moisture/buoyancy and strengthening low-level kinematic fields. The greater damaging gust threat will likely extend into more far eastern KS and western MO, and the higher wind probabilities were expanded eastward to account for this potential. Some minor southeastward expansion of the 10% tornado probabilities was made as well. ...Much of OK and adjacent portions of central/southern KS and far northwest/north-central TX... Height falls are expected to arrive later, and be more modest, across OK and adjacent central/south KS than areas farther north. Some capping appears likely through around 18Z as well. However, continued low-level moisture advection coupled with daytime heating is expected to result in air mass destabilization just as the height falls/large-scale ascent move into the region. This scenario appears to favor a discrete storm mode from south-central KS into southwest OK. Overall coverage may be limited, particularly until 00Z, but any storms that develop should quickly become supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, severe gusts to 80 mph, and strong tornadoes. Additionally, forecast hodographs are quite long, with little mid-level weakness. Mean storm motion is around 50 kt from 21 to 00Z, with Bunkers right motion around 30 kt. This should be more than sufficient for storms to remain discrete and maintain supercell characteristics. This also contributes to a greater potential for long-track tornadoes. The tornado threat will persist pass sunset and into the evening, supported by the persistence of ample low-level moisture/buoyancy and a strengthening low-level jet. Most current guidance maximizes the STP at 8-10 around 03Z over south-central OK. A threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue Monday night into early Tuesday with eastward extent into eastern OK and western AR given a sufficiently unstable and strongly sheared environment. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Upper cyclone apparent in Sunday morning satellite imagery over northern/central CA and the western Great Basin is expected to devolve into an open wave as it progresses eastward. This wave is forecast to continue eastward through the central Rockies and into the central Plains on Monday, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central Plains early Monday and into the southern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Additional maturing into a closed mid-latitude cyclone is possible across the northern High Plains late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. Progression of this shortwave trough will contribute to significant mass response across the Plains, with strong low-level moisture advection resulting in mid 60s dewpoints to the OK/KS border by the early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach into eastern NE by the late afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates/cold mid-level temperatures will result in a moderate to strongly unstable airmass ahead of the approaching shortwave across much of OK, KS, and NE. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop as this wave interacts with this airmass, beginning during the late morning/early afternoon across SD/NE and then expanding southward across KS into OK throughout the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Significant-severe weather is possible, including the potential for giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, gusts around 80 mph, and strong/potentially long-track tornadoes. ...Much of central/eastern NE and south-central/southeast SD into western/northern/eastern KS and western MO... Strong height falls associated with this system will likely begin early Monday across NE and western/northern KS, interacting with the moderately moist and buoyant air mass expected to be in place. The cold front associated with this system will likely be moving through western NE and KS during this period as well. This initial development may not be overly strong, with the primary strengthening likely delayed until the afternoon over central NE and north-central KS where better low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy will be in place. Given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector and linear forcing along the front, relatively quick upscale growth into an organized convective line appears likely. This line would then track quickly eastward/southeastward through the evening and overnight. Large to very large hail around 2" to 2.5" in diameter is possible with the initial more cellular development. Primary threat will transition to severe gusts around 80 mph once the convective line organizes and consolidates, which appears likely during the afternoon. Additionally, despite the transition to a more linear mode, the tornado threat is expected to increase with eastern extent, supported by both an increase in low-level moisture/buoyancy and strengthening low-level kinematic fields. The greater damaging gust threat will likely extend into more far eastern KS and western MO, and the higher wind probabilities were expanded eastward to account for this potential. Some minor southeastward expansion of the 10% tornado probabilities was made as well. ...Much of OK and adjacent portions of central/southern KS and far northwest/north-central TX... Height falls are expected to arrive later, and be more modest, across OK and adjacent central/south KS than areas farther north. Some capping appears likely through around 18Z as well. However, continued low-level moisture advection coupled with daytime heating is expected to result in air mass destabilization just as the height falls/large-scale ascent move into the region. This scenario appears to favor a discrete storm mode from south-central KS into southwest OK. Overall coverage may be limited, particularly until 00Z, but any storms that develop should quickly become supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, severe gusts to 80 mph, and strong tornadoes. Additionally, forecast hodographs are quite long, with little mid-level weakness. Mean storm motion is around 50 kt from 21 to 00Z, with Bunkers right motion around 30 kt. This should be more than sufficient for storms to remain discrete and maintain supercell characteristics. This also contributes to a greater potential for long-track tornadoes. The tornado threat will persist pass sunset and into the evening, supported by the persistence of ample low-level moisture/buoyancy and a strengthening low-level jet. Most current guidance maximizes the STP at 8-10 around 03Z over south-central OK. A threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue Monday night into early Tuesday with eastward extent into eastern OK and western AR given a sufficiently unstable and strongly sheared environment. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Upper cyclone apparent in Sunday morning satellite imagery over northern/central CA and the western Great Basin is expected to devolve into an open wave as it progresses eastward. This wave is forecast to continue eastward through the central Rockies and into the central Plains on Monday, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central Plains early Monday and into the southern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Additional maturing into a closed mid-latitude cyclone is possible across the northern High Plains late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. Progression of this shortwave trough will contribute to significant mass response across the Plains, with strong low-level moisture advection resulting in mid 60s dewpoints to the OK/KS border by the early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach into eastern NE by the late afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates/cold mid-level temperatures will result in a moderate to strongly unstable airmass ahead of the approaching shortwave across much of OK, KS, and NE. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop as this wave interacts with this airmass, beginning during the late morning/early afternoon across SD/NE and then expanding southward across KS into OK throughout the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Significant-severe weather is possible, including the potential for giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, gusts around 80 mph, and strong/potentially long-track tornadoes. ...Much of central/eastern NE and south-central/southeast SD into western/northern/eastern KS and western MO... Strong height falls associated with this system will likely begin early Monday across NE and western/northern KS, interacting with the moderately moist and buoyant air mass expected to be in place. The cold front associated with this system will likely be moving through western NE and KS during this period as well. This initial development may not be overly strong, with the primary strengthening likely delayed until the afternoon over central NE and north-central KS where better low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy will be in place. Given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector and linear forcing along the front, relatively quick upscale growth into an organized convective line appears likely. This line would then track quickly eastward/southeastward through the evening and overnight. Large to very large hail around 2" to 2.5" in diameter is possible with the initial more cellular development. Primary threat will transition to severe gusts around 80 mph once the convective line organizes and consolidates, which appears likely during the afternoon. Additionally, despite the transition to a more linear mode, the tornado threat is expected to increase with eastern extent, supported by both an increase in low-level moisture/buoyancy and strengthening low-level kinematic fields. The greater damaging gust threat will likely extend into more far eastern KS and western MO, and the higher wind probabilities were expanded eastward to account for this potential. Some minor southeastward expansion of the 10% tornado probabilities was made as well. ...Much of OK and adjacent portions of central/southern KS and far northwest/north-central TX... Height falls are expected to arrive later, and be more modest, across OK and adjacent central/south KS than areas farther north. Some capping appears likely through around 18Z as well. However, continued low-level moisture advection coupled with daytime heating is expected to result in air mass destabilization just as the height falls/large-scale ascent move into the region. This scenario appears to favor a discrete storm mode from south-central KS into southwest OK. Overall coverage may be limited, particularly until 00Z, but any storms that develop should quickly become supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, severe gusts to 80 mph, and strong tornadoes. Additionally, forecast hodographs are quite long, with little mid-level weakness. Mean storm motion is around 50 kt from 21 to 00Z, with Bunkers right motion around 30 kt. This should be more than sufficient for storms to remain discrete and maintain supercell characteristics. This also contributes to a greater potential for long-track tornadoes. The tornado threat will persist pass sunset and into the evening, supported by the persistence of ample low-level moisture/buoyancy and a strengthening low-level jet. Most current guidance maximizes the STP at 8-10 around 03Z over south-central OK. A threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue Monday night into early Tuesday with eastward extent into eastern OK and western AR given a sufficiently unstable and strongly sheared environment. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Upper cyclone apparent in Sunday morning satellite imagery over northern/central CA and the western Great Basin is expected to devolve into an open wave as it progresses eastward. This wave is forecast to continue eastward through the central Rockies and into the central Plains on Monday, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central Plains early Monday and into the southern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Additional maturing into a closed mid-latitude cyclone is possible across the northern High Plains late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. Progression of this shortwave trough will contribute to significant mass response across the Plains, with strong low-level moisture advection resulting in mid 60s dewpoints to the OK/KS border by the early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach into eastern NE by the late afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates/cold mid-level temperatures will result in a moderate to strongly unstable airmass ahead of the approaching shortwave across much of OK, KS, and NE. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop as this wave interacts with this airmass, beginning during the late morning/early afternoon across SD/NE and then expanding southward across KS into OK throughout the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Significant-severe weather is possible, including the potential for giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, gusts around 80 mph, and strong/potentially long-track tornadoes. ...Much of central/eastern NE and south-central/southeast SD into western/northern/eastern KS and western MO... Strong height falls associated with this system will likely begin early Monday across NE and western/northern KS, interacting with the moderately moist and buoyant air mass expected to be in place. The cold front associated with this system will likely be moving through western NE and KS during this period as well. This initial development may not be overly strong, with the primary strengthening likely delayed until the afternoon over central NE and north-central KS where better low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy will be in place. Given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector and linear forcing along the front, relatively quick upscale growth into an organized convective line appears likely. This line would then track quickly eastward/southeastward through the evening and overnight. Large to very large hail around 2" to 2.5" in diameter is possible with the initial more cellular development. Primary threat will transition to severe gusts around 80 mph once the convective line organizes and consolidates, which appears likely during the afternoon. Additionally, despite the transition to a more linear mode, the tornado threat is expected to increase with eastern extent, supported by both an increase in low-level moisture/buoyancy and strengthening low-level kinematic fields. The greater damaging gust threat will likely extend into more far eastern KS and western MO, and the higher wind probabilities were expanded eastward to account for this potential. Some minor southeastward expansion of the 10% tornado probabilities was made as well. ...Much of OK and adjacent portions of central/southern KS and far northwest/north-central TX... Height falls are expected to arrive later, and be more modest, across OK and adjacent central/south KS than areas farther north. Some capping appears likely through around 18Z as well. However, continued low-level moisture advection coupled with daytime heating is expected to result in air mass destabilization just as the height falls/large-scale ascent move into the region. This scenario appears to favor a discrete storm mode from south-central KS into southwest OK. Overall coverage may be limited, particularly until 00Z, but any storms that develop should quickly become supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, severe gusts to 80 mph, and strong tornadoes. Additionally, forecast hodographs are quite long, with little mid-level weakness. Mean storm motion is around 50 kt from 21 to 00Z, with Bunkers right motion around 30 kt. This should be more than sufficient for storms to remain discrete and maintain supercell characteristics. This also contributes to a greater potential for long-track tornadoes. The tornado threat will persist pass sunset and into the evening, supported by the persistence of ample low-level moisture/buoyancy and a strengthening low-level jet. Most current guidance maximizes the STP at 8-10 around 03Z over south-central OK. A threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue Monday night into early Tuesday with eastward extent into eastern OK and western AR given a sufficiently unstable and strongly sheared environment. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Upper cyclone apparent in Sunday morning satellite imagery over northern/central CA and the western Great Basin is expected to devolve into an open wave as it progresses eastward. This wave is forecast to continue eastward through the central Rockies and into the central Plains on Monday, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central Plains early Monday and into the southern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Additional maturing into a closed mid-latitude cyclone is possible across the northern High Plains late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. Progression of this shortwave trough will contribute to significant mass response across the Plains, with strong low-level moisture advection resulting in mid 60s dewpoints to the OK/KS border by the early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach into eastern NE by the late afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates/cold mid-level temperatures will result in a moderate to strongly unstable airmass ahead of the approaching shortwave across much of OK, KS, and NE. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop as this wave interacts with this airmass, beginning during the late morning/early afternoon across SD/NE and then expanding southward across KS into OK throughout the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Significant-severe weather is possible, including the potential for giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, gusts around 80 mph, and strong/potentially long-track tornadoes. ...Much of central/eastern NE and south-central/southeast SD into western/northern/eastern KS and western MO... Strong height falls associated with this system will likely begin early Monday across NE and western/northern KS, interacting with the moderately moist and buoyant air mass expected to be in place. The cold front associated with this system will likely be moving through western NE and KS during this period as well. This initial development may not be overly strong, with the primary strengthening likely delayed until the afternoon over central NE and north-central KS where better low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy will be in place. Given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector and linear forcing along the front, relatively quick upscale growth into an organized convective line appears likely. This line would then track quickly eastward/southeastward through the evening and overnight. Large to very large hail around 2" to 2.5" in diameter is possible with the initial more cellular development. Primary threat will transition to severe gusts around 80 mph once the convective line organizes and consolidates, which appears likely during the afternoon. Additionally, despite the transition to a more linear mode, the tornado threat is expected to increase with eastern extent, supported by both an increase in low-level moisture/buoyancy and strengthening low-level kinematic fields. The greater damaging gust threat will likely extend into more far eastern KS and western MO, and the higher wind probabilities were expanded eastward to account for this potential. Some minor southeastward expansion of the 10% tornado probabilities was made as well. ...Much of OK and adjacent portions of central/southern KS and far northwest/north-central TX... Height falls are expected to arrive later, and be more modest, across OK and adjacent central/south KS than areas farther north. Some capping appears likely through around 18Z as well. However, continued low-level moisture advection coupled with daytime heating is expected to result in air mass destabilization just as the height falls/large-scale ascent move into the region. This scenario appears to favor a discrete storm mode from south-central KS into southwest OK. Overall coverage may be limited, particularly until 00Z, but any storms that develop should quickly become supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, severe gusts to 80 mph, and strong tornadoes. Additionally, forecast hodographs are quite long, with little mid-level weakness. Mean storm motion is around 50 kt from 21 to 00Z, with Bunkers right motion around 30 kt. This should be more than sufficient for storms to remain discrete and maintain supercell characteristics. This also contributes to a greater potential for long-track tornadoes. The tornado threat will persist pass sunset and into the evening, supported by the persistence of ample low-level moisture/buoyancy and a strengthening low-level jet. Most current guidance maximizes the STP at 8-10 around 03Z over south-central OK. A threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue Monday night into early Tuesday with eastward extent into eastern OK and western AR given a sufficiently unstable and strongly sheared environment. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Upper cyclone apparent in Sunday morning satellite imagery over northern/central CA and the western Great Basin is expected to devolve into an open wave as it progresses eastward. This wave is forecast to continue eastward through the central Rockies and into the central Plains on Monday, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central Plains early Monday and into the southern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Additional maturing into a closed mid-latitude cyclone is possible across the northern High Plains late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. Progression of this shortwave trough will contribute to significant mass response across the Plains, with strong low-level moisture advection resulting in mid 60s dewpoints to the OK/KS border by the early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach into eastern NE by the late afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates/cold mid-level temperatures will result in a moderate to strongly unstable airmass ahead of the approaching shortwave across much of OK, KS, and NE. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop as this wave interacts with this airmass, beginning during the late morning/early afternoon across SD/NE and then expanding southward across KS into OK throughout the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Significant-severe weather is possible, including the potential for giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, gusts around 80 mph, and strong/potentially long-track tornadoes. ...Much of central/eastern NE and south-central/southeast SD into western/northern/eastern KS and western MO... Strong height falls associated with this system will likely begin early Monday across NE and western/northern KS, interacting with the moderately moist and buoyant air mass expected to be in place. The cold front associated with this system will likely be moving through western NE and KS during this period as well. This initial development may not be overly strong, with the primary strengthening likely delayed until the afternoon over central NE and north-central KS where better low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy will be in place. Given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector and linear forcing along the front, relatively quick upscale growth into an organized convective line appears likely. This line would then track quickly eastward/southeastward through the evening and overnight. Large to very large hail around 2" to 2.5" in diameter is possible with the initial more cellular development. Primary threat will transition to severe gusts around 80 mph once the convective line organizes and consolidates, which appears likely during the afternoon. Additionally, despite the transition to a more linear mode, the tornado threat is expected to increase with eastern extent, supported by both an increase in low-level moisture/buoyancy and strengthening low-level kinematic fields. The greater damaging gust threat will likely extend into more far eastern KS and western MO, and the higher wind probabilities were expanded eastward to account for this potential. Some minor southeastward expansion of the 10% tornado probabilities was made as well. ...Much of OK and adjacent portions of central/southern KS and far northwest/north-central TX... Height falls are expected to arrive later, and be more modest, across OK and adjacent central/south KS than areas farther north. Some capping appears likely through around 18Z as well. However, continued low-level moisture advection coupled with daytime heating is expected to result in air mass destabilization just as the height falls/large-scale ascent move into the region. This scenario appears to favor a discrete storm mode from south-central KS into southwest OK. Overall coverage may be limited, particularly until 00Z, but any storms that develop should quickly become supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, severe gusts to 80 mph, and strong tornadoes. Additionally, forecast hodographs are quite long, with little mid-level weakness. Mean storm motion is around 50 kt from 21 to 00Z, with Bunkers right motion around 30 kt. This should be more than sufficient for storms to remain discrete and maintain supercell characteristics. This also contributes to a greater potential for long-track tornadoes. The tornado threat will persist pass sunset and into the evening, supported by the persistence of ample low-level moisture/buoyancy and a strengthening low-level jet. Most current guidance maximizes the STP at 8-10 around 03Z over south-central OK. A threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue Monday night into early Tuesday with eastward extent into eastern OK and western AR given a sufficiently unstable and strongly sheared environment. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Upper cyclone apparent in Sunday morning satellite imagery over northern/central CA and the western Great Basin is expected to devolve into an open wave as it progresses eastward. This wave is forecast to continue eastward through the central Rockies and into the central Plains on Monday, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central Plains early Monday and into the southern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Additional maturing into a closed mid-latitude cyclone is possible across the northern High Plains late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. Progression of this shortwave trough will contribute to significant mass response across the Plains, with strong low-level moisture advection resulting in mid 60s dewpoints to the OK/KS border by the early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach into eastern NE by the late afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates/cold mid-level temperatures will result in a moderate to strongly unstable airmass ahead of the approaching shortwave across much of OK, KS, and NE. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop as this wave interacts with this airmass, beginning during the late morning/early afternoon across SD/NE and then expanding southward across KS into OK throughout the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Significant-severe weather is possible, including the potential for giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, gusts around 80 mph, and strong/potentially long-track tornadoes. ...Much of central/eastern NE and south-central/southeast SD into western/northern/eastern KS and western MO... Strong height falls associated with this system will likely begin early Monday across NE and western/northern KS, interacting with the moderately moist and buoyant air mass expected to be in place. The cold front associated with this system will likely be moving through western NE and KS during this period as well. This initial development may not be overly strong, with the primary strengthening likely delayed until the afternoon over central NE and north-central KS where better low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy will be in place. Given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector and linear forcing along the front, relatively quick upscale growth into an organized convective line appears likely. This line would then track quickly eastward/southeastward through the evening and overnight. Large to very large hail around 2" to 2.5" in diameter is possible with the initial more cellular development. Primary threat will transition to severe gusts around 80 mph once the convective line organizes and consolidates, which appears likely during the afternoon. Additionally, despite the transition to a more linear mode, the tornado threat is expected to increase with eastern extent, supported by both an increase in low-level moisture/buoyancy and strengthening low-level kinematic fields. The greater damaging gust threat will likely extend into more far eastern KS and western MO, and the higher wind probabilities were expanded eastward to account for this potential. Some minor southeastward expansion of the 10% tornado probabilities was made as well. ...Much of OK and adjacent portions of central/southern KS and far northwest/north-central TX... Height falls are expected to arrive later, and be more modest, across OK and adjacent central/south KS than areas farther north. Some capping appears likely through around 18Z as well. However, continued low-level moisture advection coupled with daytime heating is expected to result in air mass destabilization just as the height falls/large-scale ascent move into the region. This scenario appears to favor a discrete storm mode from south-central KS into southwest OK. Overall coverage may be limited, particularly until 00Z, but any storms that develop should quickly become supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, severe gusts to 80 mph, and strong tornadoes. Additionally, forecast hodographs are quite long, with little mid-level weakness. Mean storm motion is around 50 kt from 21 to 00Z, with Bunkers right motion around 30 kt. This should be more than sufficient for storms to remain discrete and maintain supercell characteristics. This also contributes to a greater potential for long-track tornadoes. The tornado threat will persist pass sunset and into the evening, supported by the persistence of ample low-level moisture/buoyancy and a strengthening low-level jet. Most current guidance maximizes the STP at 8-10 around 03Z over south-central OK. A threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue Monday night into early Tuesday with eastward extent into eastern OK and western AR given a sufficiently unstable and strongly sheared environment. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Upper cyclone apparent in Sunday morning satellite imagery over northern/central CA and the western Great Basin is expected to devolve into an open wave as it progresses eastward. This wave is forecast to continue eastward through the central Rockies and into the central Plains on Monday, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central Plains early Monday and into the southern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Additional maturing into a closed mid-latitude cyclone is possible across the northern High Plains late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. Progression of this shortwave trough will contribute to significant mass response across the Plains, with strong low-level moisture advection resulting in mid 60s dewpoints to the OK/KS border by the early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach into eastern NE by the late afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates/cold mid-level temperatures will result in a moderate to strongly unstable airmass ahead of the approaching shortwave across much of OK, KS, and NE. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop as this wave interacts with this airmass, beginning during the late morning/early afternoon across SD/NE and then expanding southward across KS into OK throughout the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Significant-severe weather is possible, including the potential for giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, gusts around 80 mph, and strong/potentially long-track tornadoes. ...Much of central/eastern NE and south-central/southeast SD into western/northern/eastern KS and western MO... Strong height falls associated with this system will likely begin early Monday across NE and western/northern KS, interacting with the moderately moist and buoyant air mass expected to be in place. The cold front associated with this system will likely be moving through western NE and KS during this period as well. This initial development may not be overly strong, with the primary strengthening likely delayed until the afternoon over central NE and north-central KS where better low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy will be in place. Given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector and linear forcing along the front, relatively quick upscale growth into an organized convective line appears likely. This line would then track quickly eastward/southeastward through the evening and overnight. Large to very large hail around 2" to 2.5" in diameter is possible with the initial more cellular development. Primary threat will transition to severe gusts around 80 mph once the convective line organizes and consolidates, which appears likely during the afternoon. Additionally, despite the transition to a more linear mode, the tornado threat is expected to increase with eastern extent, supported by both an increase in low-level moisture/buoyancy and strengthening low-level kinematic fields. The greater damaging gust threat will likely extend into more far eastern KS and western MO, and the higher wind probabilities were expanded eastward to account for this potential. Some minor southeastward expansion of the 10% tornado probabilities was made as well. ...Much of OK and adjacent portions of central/southern KS and far northwest/north-central TX... Height falls are expected to arrive later, and be more modest, across OK and adjacent central/south KS than areas farther north. Some capping appears likely through around 18Z as well. However, continued low-level moisture advection coupled with daytime heating is expected to result in air mass destabilization just as the height falls/large-scale ascent move into the region. This scenario appears to favor a discrete storm mode from south-central KS into southwest OK. Overall coverage may be limited, particularly until 00Z, but any storms that develop should quickly become supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, severe gusts to 80 mph, and strong tornadoes. Additionally, forecast hodographs are quite long, with little mid-level weakness. Mean storm motion is around 50 kt from 21 to 00Z, with Bunkers right motion around 30 kt. This should be more than sufficient for storms to remain discrete and maintain supercell characteristics. This also contributes to a greater potential for long-track tornadoes. The tornado threat will persist pass sunset and into the evening, supported by the persistence of ample low-level moisture/buoyancy and a strengthening low-level jet. Most current guidance maximizes the STP at 8-10 around 03Z over south-central OK. A threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue Monday night into early Tuesday with eastward extent into eastern OK and western AR given a sufficiently unstable and strongly sheared environment. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Upper cyclone apparent in Sunday morning satellite imagery over northern/central CA and the western Great Basin is expected to devolve into an open wave as it progresses eastward. This wave is forecast to continue eastward through the central Rockies and into the central Plains on Monday, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central Plains early Monday and into the southern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Additional maturing into a closed mid-latitude cyclone is possible across the northern High Plains late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. Progression of this shortwave trough will contribute to significant mass response across the Plains, with strong low-level moisture advection resulting in mid 60s dewpoints to the OK/KS border by the early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach into eastern NE by the late afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates/cold mid-level temperatures will result in a moderate to strongly unstable airmass ahead of the approaching shortwave across much of OK, KS, and NE. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop as this wave interacts with this airmass, beginning during the late morning/early afternoon across SD/NE and then expanding southward across KS into OK throughout the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Significant-severe weather is possible, including the potential for giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, gusts around 80 mph, and strong/potentially long-track tornadoes. ...Much of central/eastern NE and south-central/southeast SD into western/northern/eastern KS and western MO... Strong height falls associated with this system will likely begin early Monday across NE and western/northern KS, interacting with the moderately moist and buoyant air mass expected to be in place. The cold front associated with this system will likely be moving through western NE and KS during this period as well. This initial development may not be overly strong, with the primary strengthening likely delayed until the afternoon over central NE and north-central KS where better low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy will be in place. Given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector and linear forcing along the front, relatively quick upscale growth into an organized convective line appears likely. This line would then track quickly eastward/southeastward through the evening and overnight. Large to very large hail around 2" to 2.5" in diameter is possible with the initial more cellular development. Primary threat will transition to severe gusts around 80 mph once the convective line organizes and consolidates, which appears likely during the afternoon. Additionally, despite the transition to a more linear mode, the tornado threat is expected to increase with eastern extent, supported by both an increase in low-level moisture/buoyancy and strengthening low-level kinematic fields. The greater damaging gust threat will likely extend into more far eastern KS and western MO, and the higher wind probabilities were expanded eastward to account for this potential. Some minor southeastward expansion of the 10% tornado probabilities was made as well. ...Much of OK and adjacent portions of central/southern KS and far northwest/north-central TX... Height falls are expected to arrive later, and be more modest, across OK and adjacent central/south KS than areas farther north. Some capping appears likely through around 18Z as well. However, continued low-level moisture advection coupled with daytime heating is expected to result in air mass destabilization just as the height falls/large-scale ascent move into the region. This scenario appears to favor a discrete storm mode from south-central KS into southwest OK. Overall coverage may be limited, particularly until 00Z, but any storms that develop should quickly become supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, severe gusts to 80 mph, and strong tornadoes. Additionally, forecast hodographs are quite long, with little mid-level weakness. Mean storm motion is around 50 kt from 21 to 00Z, with Bunkers right motion around 30 kt. This should be more than sufficient for storms to remain discrete and maintain supercell characteristics. This also contributes to a greater potential for long-track tornadoes. The tornado threat will persist pass sunset and into the evening, supported by the persistence of ample low-level moisture/buoyancy and a strengthening low-level jet. Most current guidance maximizes the STP at 8-10 around 03Z over south-central OK. A threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue Monday night into early Tuesday with eastward extent into eastern OK and western AR given a sufficiently unstable and strongly sheared environment. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Upper cyclone apparent in Sunday morning satellite imagery over northern/central CA and the western Great Basin is expected to devolve into an open wave as it progresses eastward. This wave is forecast to continue eastward through the central Rockies and into the central Plains on Monday, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central Plains early Monday and into the southern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Additional maturing into a closed mid-latitude cyclone is possible across the northern High Plains late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. Progression of this shortwave trough will contribute to significant mass response across the Plains, with strong low-level moisture advection resulting in mid 60s dewpoints to the OK/KS border by the early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach into eastern NE by the late afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates/cold mid-level temperatures will result in a moderate to strongly unstable airmass ahead of the approaching shortwave across much of OK, KS, and NE. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop as this wave interacts with this airmass, beginning during the late morning/early afternoon across SD/NE and then expanding southward across KS into OK throughout the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Significant-severe weather is possible, including the potential for giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, gusts around 80 mph, and strong/potentially long-track tornadoes. ...Much of central/eastern NE and south-central/southeast SD into western/northern/eastern KS and western MO... Strong height falls associated with this system will likely begin early Monday across NE and western/northern KS, interacting with the moderately moist and buoyant air mass expected to be in place. The cold front associated with this system will likely be moving through western NE and KS during this period as well. This initial development may not be overly strong, with the primary strengthening likely delayed until the afternoon over central NE and north-central KS where better low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy will be in place. Given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector and linear forcing along the front, relatively quick upscale growth into an organized convective line appears likely. This line would then track quickly eastward/southeastward through the evening and overnight. Large to very large hail around 2" to 2.5" in diameter is possible with the initial more cellular development. Primary threat will transition to severe gusts around 80 mph once the convective line organizes and consolidates, which appears likely during the afternoon. Additionally, despite the transition to a more linear mode, the tornado threat is expected to increase with eastern extent, supported by both an increase in low-level moisture/buoyancy and strengthening low-level kinematic fields. The greater damaging gust threat will likely extend into more far eastern KS and western MO, and the higher wind probabilities were expanded eastward to account for this potential. Some minor southeastward expansion of the 10% tornado probabilities was made as well. ...Much of OK and adjacent portions of central/southern KS and far northwest/north-central TX... Height falls are expected to arrive later, and be more modest, across OK and adjacent central/south KS than areas farther north. Some capping appears likely through around 18Z as well. However, continued low-level moisture advection coupled with daytime heating is expected to result in air mass destabilization just as the height falls/large-scale ascent move into the region. This scenario appears to favor a discrete storm mode from south-central KS into southwest OK. Overall coverage may be limited, particularly until 00Z, but any storms that develop should quickly become supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, severe gusts to 80 mph, and strong tornadoes. Additionally, forecast hodographs are quite long, with little mid-level weakness. Mean storm motion is around 50 kt from 21 to 00Z, with Bunkers right motion around 30 kt. This should be more than sufficient for storms to remain discrete and maintain supercell characteristics. This also contributes to a greater potential for long-track tornadoes. The tornado threat will persist pass sunset and into the evening, supported by the persistence of ample low-level moisture/buoyancy and a strengthening low-level jet. Most current guidance maximizes the STP at 8-10 around 03Z over south-central OK. A threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue Monday night into early Tuesday with eastward extent into eastern OK and western AR given a sufficiently unstable and strongly sheared environment. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Upper cyclone apparent in Sunday morning satellite imagery over northern/central CA and the western Great Basin is expected to devolve into an open wave as it progresses eastward. This wave is forecast to continue eastward through the central Rockies and into the central Plains on Monday, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central Plains early Monday and into the southern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Additional maturing into a closed mid-latitude cyclone is possible across the northern High Plains late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. Progression of this shortwave trough will contribute to significant mass response across the Plains, with strong low-level moisture advection resulting in mid 60s dewpoints to the OK/KS border by the early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach into eastern NE by the late afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates/cold mid-level temperatures will result in a moderate to strongly unstable airmass ahead of the approaching shortwave across much of OK, KS, and NE. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop as this wave interacts with this airmass, beginning during the late morning/early afternoon across SD/NE and then expanding southward across KS into OK throughout the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Significant-severe weather is possible, including the potential for giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, gusts around 80 mph, and strong/potentially long-track tornadoes. ...Much of central/eastern NE and south-central/southeast SD into western/northern/eastern KS and western MO... Strong height falls associated with this system will likely begin early Monday across NE and western/northern KS, interacting with the moderately moist and buoyant air mass expected to be in place. The cold front associated with this system will likely be moving through western NE and KS during this period as well. This initial development may not be overly strong, with the primary strengthening likely delayed until the afternoon over central NE and north-central KS where better low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy will be in place. Given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector and linear forcing along the front, relatively quick upscale growth into an organized convective line appears likely. This line would then track quickly eastward/southeastward through the evening and overnight. Large to very large hail around 2" to 2.5" in diameter is possible with the initial more cellular development. Primary threat will transition to severe gusts around 80 mph once the convective line organizes and consolidates, which appears likely during the afternoon. Additionally, despite the transition to a more linear mode, the tornado threat is expected to increase with eastern extent, supported by both an increase in low-level moisture/buoyancy and strengthening low-level kinematic fields. The greater damaging gust threat will likely extend into more far eastern KS and western MO, and the higher wind probabilities were expanded eastward to account for this potential. Some minor southeastward expansion of the 10% tornado probabilities was made as well. ...Much of OK and adjacent portions of central/southern KS and far northwest/north-central TX... Height falls are expected to arrive later, and be more modest, across OK and adjacent central/south KS than areas farther north. Some capping appears likely through around 18Z as well. However, continued low-level moisture advection coupled with daytime heating is expected to result in air mass destabilization just as the height falls/large-scale ascent move into the region. This scenario appears to favor a discrete storm mode from south-central KS into southwest OK. Overall coverage may be limited, particularly until 00Z, but any storms that develop should quickly become supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail from 3" to 4" in diameter, severe gusts to 80 mph, and strong tornadoes. Additionally, forecast hodographs are quite long, with little mid-level weakness. Mean storm motion is around 50 kt from 21 to 00Z, with Bunkers right motion around 30 kt. This should be more than sufficient for storms to remain discrete and maintain supercell characteristics. This also contributes to a greater potential for long-track tornadoes. The tornado threat will persist pass sunset and into the evening, supported by the persistence of ample low-level moisture/buoyancy and a strengthening low-level jet. Most current guidance maximizes the STP at 8-10 around 03Z over south-central OK. A threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue Monday night into early Tuesday with eastward extent into eastern OK and western AR given a sufficiently unstable and strongly sheared environment. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun May 5 17:41:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 05/05/2024 Read more