Severe Storms

WW 0374 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 374 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW LBB TO 20 S AMA TO 25 S GUY TO 20 E LBL. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 374 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-030240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC011-045-065-075-101-107-125-129-153-169-179-189-191-195-233- 263-269-303-305-345-357-393-433-437-030240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALE HALL HANSFORD HUTCHINSON KENT KING LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY OCHILTREE ROBERTS STONEWALL SWISHER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0374 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 374 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW LBB TO 20 S AMA TO 25 S GUY TO 20 E LBL. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 374 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-030240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC011-045-065-075-101-107-125-129-153-169-179-189-191-195-233- 263-269-303-305-345-357-393-433-437-030240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALE HALL HANSFORD HUTCHINSON KENT KING LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY OCHILTREE ROBERTS STONEWALL SWISHER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0374 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 374 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW LBB TO 20 S AMA TO 25 S GUY TO 20 E LBL. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 374 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-030240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC011-045-065-075-101-107-125-129-153-169-179-189-191-195-233- 263-269-303-305-345-357-393-433-437-030240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALE HALL HANSFORD HUTCHINSON KENT KING LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY OCHILTREE ROBERTS STONEWALL SWISHER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0374 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 374 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW LBB TO 20 S AMA TO 25 S GUY TO 20 E LBL. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 374 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-030240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC011-045-065-075-101-107-125-129-153-169-179-189-191-195-233- 263-269-303-305-345-357-393-433-437-030240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALE HALL HANSFORD HUTCHINSON KENT KING LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY OCHILTREE ROBERTS STONEWALL SWISHER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0374 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 374 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW LBB TO 20 S AMA TO 25 S GUY TO 20 E LBL. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 374 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-030240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC011-045-065-075-101-107-125-129-153-169-179-189-191-195-233- 263-269-303-305-345-357-393-433-437-030240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALE HALL HANSFORD HUTCHINSON KENT KING LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY OCHILTREE ROBERTS STONEWALL SWISHER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0374 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 374 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW LBB TO 20 S AMA TO 25 S GUY TO 20 E LBL. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 374 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-030240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC011-045-065-075-101-107-125-129-153-169-179-189-191-195-233- 263-269-303-305-345-357-393-433-437-030240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALE HALL HANSFORD HUTCHINSON KENT KING LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY OCHILTREE ROBERTS STONEWALL SWISHER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 374 TORNADO OK TX 021950Z - 030400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 374 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Oklahoma Panhandle West and Northwest Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to rapidly develop this afternoon. Supercells capable of large to very large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter) and a tornado risk will be the primary hazards through the early evening. The tornado threat will likely focus in the vicinity of a modifying outflow boundary draped across parts of the Watch area. Additional storm development into a thunderstorm cluster is possible this evening. Severe gusts and hail will likely become the primary severe threats by late evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north of Guymon OK to 45 miles south southeast of Lubbock TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 372...WW 373... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0381 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 381 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 381 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-027-035-099-145-161-193-213-217-281-289-293-309-331-333- 349-395-030240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM MILLS NAVARRO ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0381 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 381 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 381 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-027-035-099-145-161-193-213-217-281-289-293-309-331-333- 349-395-030240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM MILLS NAVARRO ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0381 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 381 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 381 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-027-035-099-145-161-193-213-217-281-289-293-309-331-333- 349-395-030240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM MILLS NAVARRO ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0381 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 381 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 381 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-027-035-099-145-161-193-213-217-281-289-293-309-331-333- 349-395-030240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM MILLS NAVARRO ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0381 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 381 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 381 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-027-035-099-145-161-193-213-217-281-289-293-309-331-333- 349-395-030240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM MILLS NAVARRO ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 381 SEVERE TSTM TX 022300Z - 030500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 381 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Central Texas * Effective this Sunday night from 600 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forming in a very moist and unstable airmass. The strongest of these cells will pose a risk of damaging winds and hail through the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Stephenville TX to 60 miles east southeast of Corsicana TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 373...WW 374...WW 375...WW 376...WW 377...WW 378...WW 379...WW 380... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1137 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 374... FOR TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1137 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Areas affected...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...Western Oklahoma...Northwest Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 374... Valid 022337Z - 030130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 374 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat across the central Texas Panhandle is expected to be maintained over the next few hours. The severe threat will gradually move eastward, and the tornado threat is expected to increase over the next 1 to 2 hours. As the storms approach the eastern edge of Tornado Watch 374, a new watch may need to be issued later this evening. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Amarillo, TX shows several supercells located near a north-to-south oriented dryline across the central Texas Panhandle. To the east of the dryline, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger instability, and the severe threat is expected to be maintained. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Amarillo has 0-6 km near 50 knots, with a substantial amount of directional shear in the lowest 3 km. This is resulting in 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2, suggesting that the more intense supercells could develop a tornado threat. The tornado threat will likely become maximized in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe in the east-central Texas Panhandle and southward to areas northeast of Lubbock, as the low-level jet strengthens. If a supercell can turn to the right of the mean flow and become dominant, then a tornado or two will be likely. In addition, RAP forecast soundings at Amarillo have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9 C/km. This will support a large hail threat with supercells, and the more vigorous updrafts could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 33050113 33040046 33249980 33689939 35089937 35979938 36539956 36900002 36920084 36830133 36410182 35620200 34880214 33960210 33310180 33050113 Read more

MD 1138 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379... FOR NORTHERN PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1138 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0701 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Areas affected...Northern Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379... Valid 030001Z - 030130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across ww379. DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed within low-level warm advection regime across eastern SD into southwest MN. This activity is maturing immediately ahead of a weak surface low that is forecast to track across eastern SD into northwest MN later this evening. Latest diagnostic data suggests MLCAPE is in excess of 2000 J/kg across this region and the environment remains amply sheared for organized updrafts. Large hail appears to be common with the most robust updrafts and this is the primary risk with storms this evening. Even so, a tornado or two can not be ruled out with the more discrete supercells, especially near the warm front where low-level shear is a bit stronger than the western half of the watch. Organized severe storms are expected to gradually spread into southwest MN over the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 44810106 46009537 43989537 42790106 44810106 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across much of the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley this evening and into the early overnight hours. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...01z Update... Despite a highly complex convective scenario, the forecast remains largely on track. Some minor modifications to the outlook area have been addressed below. ...Central Plains... A pronounced bowing MCS has formed over portions of central and southern NE as expected. This feature should track eastward into the Enhanced area with a risk for damaging gusts (some significant) hail and a couple of tornadoes. The ENhanced area was expanded to the east and southeast to better align with the expected path of the bowing line. ...East/Southeast TX into LA and southern AR... The ongoing MCS over portions of eastern TX should continue southeastward this evening along a subtle baroclinic boundary with access to moderate buoyancy and effective shear over a fairly wide stretch of LA and southern MS. Several other clusters of storms have developed along trailing outflow and should result in additional upscale growth with time. However, confidence in the evolution of this system and the eastern extent of the severe risk is low. Given the potential for damaging winds a tornado or two and some hail to continue, have extended the Slight farther eastward to the LA/MS border and southern AR. ...The Dakotas into the upper Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to persist into this evening near a weak surface low across central SD. While so far these storms are fairly well separated, CAM guidance and radar trends suggest this convection should grow upscale into one or more linear clusters with time this evening. Damaging winds, hail and a tornado or two are possible as storms spread east/southeast toward IA/MN and far northwest WI tonight. Have adjusted the eastern edge of the severe probabilities to better reflect the latest trends in guidance. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across much of the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley this evening and into the early overnight hours. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...01z Update... Despite a highly complex convective scenario, the forecast remains largely on track. Some minor modifications to the outlook area have been addressed below. ...Central Plains... A pronounced bowing MCS has formed over portions of central and southern NE as expected. This feature should track eastward into the Enhanced area with a risk for damaging gusts (some significant) hail and a couple of tornadoes. The ENhanced area was expanded to the east and southeast to better align with the expected path of the bowing line. ...East/Southeast TX into LA and southern AR... The ongoing MCS over portions of eastern TX should continue southeastward this evening along a subtle baroclinic boundary with access to moderate buoyancy and effective shear over a fairly wide stretch of LA and southern MS. Several other clusters of storms have developed along trailing outflow and should result in additional upscale growth with time. However, confidence in the evolution of this system and the eastern extent of the severe risk is low. Given the potential for damaging winds a tornado or two and some hail to continue, have extended the Slight farther eastward to the LA/MS border and southern AR. ...The Dakotas into the upper Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to persist into this evening near a weak surface low across central SD. While so far these storms are fairly well separated, CAM guidance and radar trends suggest this convection should grow upscale into one or more linear clusters with time this evening. Damaging winds, hail and a tornado or two are possible as storms spread east/southeast toward IA/MN and far northwest WI tonight. Have adjusted the eastern edge of the severe probabilities to better reflect the latest trends in guidance. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across much of the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley this evening and into the early overnight hours. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...01z Update... Despite a highly complex convective scenario, the forecast remains largely on track. Some minor modifications to the outlook area have been addressed below. ...Central Plains... A pronounced bowing MCS has formed over portions of central and southern NE as expected. This feature should track eastward into the Enhanced area with a risk for damaging gusts (some significant) hail and a couple of tornadoes. The ENhanced area was expanded to the east and southeast to better align with the expected path of the bowing line. ...East/Southeast TX into LA and southern AR... The ongoing MCS over portions of eastern TX should continue southeastward this evening along a subtle baroclinic boundary with access to moderate buoyancy and effective shear over a fairly wide stretch of LA and southern MS. Several other clusters of storms have developed along trailing outflow and should result in additional upscale growth with time. However, confidence in the evolution of this system and the eastern extent of the severe risk is low. Given the potential for damaging winds a tornado or two and some hail to continue, have extended the Slight farther eastward to the LA/MS border and southern AR. ...The Dakotas into the upper Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to persist into this evening near a weak surface low across central SD. While so far these storms are fairly well separated, CAM guidance and radar trends suggest this convection should grow upscale into one or more linear clusters with time this evening. Damaging winds, hail and a tornado or two are possible as storms spread east/southeast toward IA/MN and far northwest WI tonight. Have adjusted the eastern edge of the severe probabilities to better reflect the latest trends in guidance. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across much of the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley this evening and into the early overnight hours. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...01z Update... Despite a highly complex convective scenario, the forecast remains largely on track. Some minor modifications to the outlook area have been addressed below. ...Central Plains... A pronounced bowing MCS has formed over portions of central and southern NE as expected. This feature should track eastward into the Enhanced area with a risk for damaging gusts (some significant) hail and a couple of tornadoes. The ENhanced area was expanded to the east and southeast to better align with the expected path of the bowing line. ...East/Southeast TX into LA and southern AR... The ongoing MCS over portions of eastern TX should continue southeastward this evening along a subtle baroclinic boundary with access to moderate buoyancy and effective shear over a fairly wide stretch of LA and southern MS. Several other clusters of storms have developed along trailing outflow and should result in additional upscale growth with time. However, confidence in the evolution of this system and the eastern extent of the severe risk is low. Given the potential for damaging winds a tornado or two and some hail to continue, have extended the Slight farther eastward to the LA/MS border and southern AR. ...The Dakotas into the upper Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to persist into this evening near a weak surface low across central SD. While so far these storms are fairly well separated, CAM guidance and radar trends suggest this convection should grow upscale into one or more linear clusters with time this evening. Damaging winds, hail and a tornado or two are possible as storms spread east/southeast toward IA/MN and far northwest WI tonight. Have adjusted the eastern edge of the severe probabilities to better reflect the latest trends in guidance. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across much of the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley this evening and into the early overnight hours. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected. ...01z Update... Despite a highly complex convective scenario, the forecast remains largely on track. Some minor modifications to the outlook area have been addressed below. ...Central Plains... A pronounced bowing MCS has formed over portions of central and southern NE as expected. This feature should track eastward into the Enhanced area with a risk for damaging gusts (some significant) hail and a couple of tornadoes. The ENhanced area was expanded to the east and southeast to better align with the expected path of the bowing line. ...East/Southeast TX into LA and southern AR... The ongoing MCS over portions of eastern TX should continue southeastward this evening along a subtle baroclinic boundary with access to moderate buoyancy and effective shear over a fairly wide stretch of LA and southern MS. Several other clusters of storms have developed along trailing outflow and should result in additional upscale growth with time. However, confidence in the evolution of this system and the eastern extent of the severe risk is low. Given the potential for damaging winds a tornado or two and some hail to continue, have extended the Slight farther eastward to the LA/MS border and southern AR. ...The Dakotas into the upper Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to persist into this evening near a weak surface low across central SD. While so far these storms are fairly well separated, CAM guidance and radar trends suggest this convection should grow upscale into one or more linear clusters with time this evening. Damaging winds, hail and a tornado or two are possible as storms spread east/southeast toward IA/MN and far northwest WI tonight. Have adjusted the eastern edge of the severe probabilities to better reflect the latest trends in guidance. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 Read more