Severe Storms

MD 0642 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186... FOR SOUTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0642 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Areas affected...South TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186... Valid 052009Z - 052115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of supercells embedded within a slow, southeast-moving cluster will largely impact the southwest portion of WW 186 through 6 PM CDT. Additional severe storm development will be possible elsewhere, but appears to be trending towards lower probabilities of occurrence. DISCUSSION...A pair of deep convective updrafts with echo tops of 50-55k ft are slowly moving southeastward at around 15 kts. These cells appear to have connected outflow and will likely continue their slow progression over the next couple hours. The environment ahead of them contains appreciable buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, supporting a potential increase in intensity through late afternoon with a mix of large hail to around golf ball size and wind gusts of 55-70 mph possible. With greater MLCIN over Deep South TX, in conjunction with increasing mid-level warming in the wake of a southern-stream low-amplitude shortwave impulse, the severe threat should decrease during the early evening. Farther north and northeast, convection has largely struggled to intensify along residual outflows where the boundary layer has been relatively cooler. 18Z HRRR guidance suggests this activity may not greatly intensify, and the overall severe threat appears marginal. ..Grams.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 28709880 28129798 27699780 27349806 27239859 27259913 27919958 28249965 28429966 28709880 Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642. ..GRAMS..05/05/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-025-029-055-089-091-123-127-131-149-163-175-177-187-239- 255-271-283-285-297-311-323-325-463-469-479-481-493-507- 052140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BEE BEXAR CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT DUVAL FAYETTE FRIO GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE JACKSON KARNES KINNEY LA SALLE LAVACA LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MAVERICK MEDINA UVALDE VICTORIA WEBB WHARTON WILSON ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642. ..GRAMS..05/05/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-025-029-055-089-091-123-127-131-149-163-175-177-187-239- 255-271-283-285-297-311-323-325-463-469-479-481-493-507- 052140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BEE BEXAR CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT DUVAL FAYETTE FRIO GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE JACKSON KARNES KINNEY LA SALLE LAVACA LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MAVERICK MEDINA UVALDE VICTORIA WEBB WHARTON WILSON ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642. ..GRAMS..05/05/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-025-029-055-089-091-123-127-131-149-163-175-177-187-239- 255-271-283-285-297-311-323-325-463-469-479-481-493-507- 052140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BEE BEXAR CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT DUVAL FAYETTE FRIO GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE JACKSON KARNES KINNEY LA SALLE LAVACA LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MAVERICK MEDINA UVALDE VICTORIA WEBB WHARTON WILSON ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire weather conditions will persist into the middle of the work week across the southern High Plains where fuels are currently the driest across the country. A broad swath of westerly mid-level flow will remain in place across the central/southern Rockies through the middle of the work week in the wake of a progressive upper low (currently in place over the Great Basin). This will maintain a westerly downslope flow regime over the central/southern High Plains through at least D4/Wednesday before a cool, continental air mass overspreads the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. ...D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the southern CONUS. Persistent 40-60 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain in place over NM/CO both days, which will maintain some form of lee troughing and breezy westerly pressure gradient winds. Little to no appreciable rainfall or moisture recovery of an antecedent dry air mass is expected through mid-week, and downslope warming/drying will promote afternoon RH minimums into the single digits to low teens both days across eastern NM and far western TX. Multiple preceding days of dry conditions will also favor an expansion of available fuels by Tues/Wed that should support the fire weather concern. Widespread critical fire weather conditions appear most probable across eastern NM/far western TX on D3/Tuesday when lee troughing is forecast to be strongest. Medium-range ensemble guidance shows fairly high (75%) probability for gradient wind speeds greater than 20 mph with stronger gusts likely. With confidence in critical wind speeds increasing, the 70% probability risk area has been extended southward into southeast NM and adjacent portions of far western TX. On D4/Wednesday, a cold front pushing into the south-central Plains will limit the potential for robust lee troughing, shunting stronger surface pressure falls southward towards the Rio Grande Valley. Breezy westerly winds will likely be confined to southern NM where the surface pressure gradient should be the strongest, though a few solutions hint that critical conditions may develop further north in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Beyond D4/Wednesday, a cooler continental air mass will continue to push into the southern Plains with weakening zonal flow aloft. Areas of dry/breezy conditions are possible, but will likely be confined to eastern AZ/southwest NM. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire weather conditions will persist into the middle of the work week across the southern High Plains where fuels are currently the driest across the country. A broad swath of westerly mid-level flow will remain in place across the central/southern Rockies through the middle of the work week in the wake of a progressive upper low (currently in place over the Great Basin). This will maintain a westerly downslope flow regime over the central/southern High Plains through at least D4/Wednesday before a cool, continental air mass overspreads the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. ...D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the southern CONUS. Persistent 40-60 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain in place over NM/CO both days, which will maintain some form of lee troughing and breezy westerly pressure gradient winds. Little to no appreciable rainfall or moisture recovery of an antecedent dry air mass is expected through mid-week, and downslope warming/drying will promote afternoon RH minimums into the single digits to low teens both days across eastern NM and far western TX. Multiple preceding days of dry conditions will also favor an expansion of available fuels by Tues/Wed that should support the fire weather concern. Widespread critical fire weather conditions appear most probable across eastern NM/far western TX on D3/Tuesday when lee troughing is forecast to be strongest. Medium-range ensemble guidance shows fairly high (75%) probability for gradient wind speeds greater than 20 mph with stronger gusts likely. With confidence in critical wind speeds increasing, the 70% probability risk area has been extended southward into southeast NM and adjacent portions of far western TX. On D4/Wednesday, a cold front pushing into the south-central Plains will limit the potential for robust lee troughing, shunting stronger surface pressure falls southward towards the Rio Grande Valley. Breezy westerly winds will likely be confined to southern NM where the surface pressure gradient should be the strongest, though a few solutions hint that critical conditions may develop further north in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Beyond D4/Wednesday, a cooler continental air mass will continue to push into the southern Plains with weakening zonal flow aloft. Areas of dry/breezy conditions are possible, but will likely be confined to eastern AZ/southwest NM. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire weather conditions will persist into the middle of the work week across the southern High Plains where fuels are currently the driest across the country. A broad swath of westerly mid-level flow will remain in place across the central/southern Rockies through the middle of the work week in the wake of a progressive upper low (currently in place over the Great Basin). This will maintain a westerly downslope flow regime over the central/southern High Plains through at least D4/Wednesday before a cool, continental air mass overspreads the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. ...D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the southern CONUS. Persistent 40-60 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain in place over NM/CO both days, which will maintain some form of lee troughing and breezy westerly pressure gradient winds. Little to no appreciable rainfall or moisture recovery of an antecedent dry air mass is expected through mid-week, and downslope warming/drying will promote afternoon RH minimums into the single digits to low teens both days across eastern NM and far western TX. Multiple preceding days of dry conditions will also favor an expansion of available fuels by Tues/Wed that should support the fire weather concern. Widespread critical fire weather conditions appear most probable across eastern NM/far western TX on D3/Tuesday when lee troughing is forecast to be strongest. Medium-range ensemble guidance shows fairly high (75%) probability for gradient wind speeds greater than 20 mph with stronger gusts likely. With confidence in critical wind speeds increasing, the 70% probability risk area has been extended southward into southeast NM and adjacent portions of far western TX. On D4/Wednesday, a cold front pushing into the south-central Plains will limit the potential for robust lee troughing, shunting stronger surface pressure falls southward towards the Rio Grande Valley. Breezy westerly winds will likely be confined to southern NM where the surface pressure gradient should be the strongest, though a few solutions hint that critical conditions may develop further north in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Beyond D4/Wednesday, a cooler continental air mass will continue to push into the southern Plains with weakening zonal flow aloft. Areas of dry/breezy conditions are possible, but will likely be confined to eastern AZ/southwest NM. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire weather conditions will persist into the middle of the work week across the southern High Plains where fuels are currently the driest across the country. A broad swath of westerly mid-level flow will remain in place across the central/southern Rockies through the middle of the work week in the wake of a progressive upper low (currently in place over the Great Basin). This will maintain a westerly downslope flow regime over the central/southern High Plains through at least D4/Wednesday before a cool, continental air mass overspreads the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. ...D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the southern CONUS. Persistent 40-60 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain in place over NM/CO both days, which will maintain some form of lee troughing and breezy westerly pressure gradient winds. Little to no appreciable rainfall or moisture recovery of an antecedent dry air mass is expected through mid-week, and downslope warming/drying will promote afternoon RH minimums into the single digits to low teens both days across eastern NM and far western TX. Multiple preceding days of dry conditions will also favor an expansion of available fuels by Tues/Wed that should support the fire weather concern. Widespread critical fire weather conditions appear most probable across eastern NM/far western TX on D3/Tuesday when lee troughing is forecast to be strongest. Medium-range ensemble guidance shows fairly high (75%) probability for gradient wind speeds greater than 20 mph with stronger gusts likely. With confidence in critical wind speeds increasing, the 70% probability risk area has been extended southward into southeast NM and adjacent portions of far western TX. On D4/Wednesday, a cold front pushing into the south-central Plains will limit the potential for robust lee troughing, shunting stronger surface pressure falls southward towards the Rio Grande Valley. Breezy westerly winds will likely be confined to southern NM where the surface pressure gradient should be the strongest, though a few solutions hint that critical conditions may develop further north in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Beyond D4/Wednesday, a cooler continental air mass will continue to push into the southern Plains with weakening zonal flow aloft. Areas of dry/breezy conditions are possible, but will likely be confined to eastern AZ/southwest NM. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire weather conditions will persist into the middle of the work week across the southern High Plains where fuels are currently the driest across the country. A broad swath of westerly mid-level flow will remain in place across the central/southern Rockies through the middle of the work week in the wake of a progressive upper low (currently in place over the Great Basin). This will maintain a westerly downslope flow regime over the central/southern High Plains through at least D4/Wednesday before a cool, continental air mass overspreads the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. ...D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the southern CONUS. Persistent 40-60 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain in place over NM/CO both days, which will maintain some form of lee troughing and breezy westerly pressure gradient winds. Little to no appreciable rainfall or moisture recovery of an antecedent dry air mass is expected through mid-week, and downslope warming/drying will promote afternoon RH minimums into the single digits to low teens both days across eastern NM and far western TX. Multiple preceding days of dry conditions will also favor an expansion of available fuels by Tues/Wed that should support the fire weather concern. Widespread critical fire weather conditions appear most probable across eastern NM/far western TX on D3/Tuesday when lee troughing is forecast to be strongest. Medium-range ensemble guidance shows fairly high (75%) probability for gradient wind speeds greater than 20 mph with stronger gusts likely. With confidence in critical wind speeds increasing, the 70% probability risk area has been extended southward into southeast NM and adjacent portions of far western TX. On D4/Wednesday, a cold front pushing into the south-central Plains will limit the potential for robust lee troughing, shunting stronger surface pressure falls southward towards the Rio Grande Valley. Breezy westerly winds will likely be confined to southern NM where the surface pressure gradient should be the strongest, though a few solutions hint that critical conditions may develop further north in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Beyond D4/Wednesday, a cooler continental air mass will continue to push into the southern Plains with weakening zonal flow aloft. Areas of dry/breezy conditions are possible, but will likely be confined to eastern AZ/southwest NM. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire weather conditions will persist into the middle of the work week across the southern High Plains where fuels are currently the driest across the country. A broad swath of westerly mid-level flow will remain in place across the central/southern Rockies through the middle of the work week in the wake of a progressive upper low (currently in place over the Great Basin). This will maintain a westerly downslope flow regime over the central/southern High Plains through at least D4/Wednesday before a cool, continental air mass overspreads the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. ...D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the southern CONUS. Persistent 40-60 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain in place over NM/CO both days, which will maintain some form of lee troughing and breezy westerly pressure gradient winds. Little to no appreciable rainfall or moisture recovery of an antecedent dry air mass is expected through mid-week, and downslope warming/drying will promote afternoon RH minimums into the single digits to low teens both days across eastern NM and far western TX. Multiple preceding days of dry conditions will also favor an expansion of available fuels by Tues/Wed that should support the fire weather concern. Widespread critical fire weather conditions appear most probable across eastern NM/far western TX on D3/Tuesday when lee troughing is forecast to be strongest. Medium-range ensemble guidance shows fairly high (75%) probability for gradient wind speeds greater than 20 mph with stronger gusts likely. With confidence in critical wind speeds increasing, the 70% probability risk area has been extended southward into southeast NM and adjacent portions of far western TX. On D4/Wednesday, a cold front pushing into the south-central Plains will limit the potential for robust lee troughing, shunting stronger surface pressure falls southward towards the Rio Grande Valley. Breezy westerly winds will likely be confined to southern NM where the surface pressure gradient should be the strongest, though a few solutions hint that critical conditions may develop further north in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Beyond D4/Wednesday, a cooler continental air mass will continue to push into the southern Plains with weakening zonal flow aloft. Areas of dry/breezy conditions are possible, but will likely be confined to eastern AZ/southwest NM. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire weather conditions will persist into the middle of the work week across the southern High Plains where fuels are currently the driest across the country. A broad swath of westerly mid-level flow will remain in place across the central/southern Rockies through the middle of the work week in the wake of a progressive upper low (currently in place over the Great Basin). This will maintain a westerly downslope flow regime over the central/southern High Plains through at least D4/Wednesday before a cool, continental air mass overspreads the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. ...D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the southern CONUS. Persistent 40-60 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain in place over NM/CO both days, which will maintain some form of lee troughing and breezy westerly pressure gradient winds. Little to no appreciable rainfall or moisture recovery of an antecedent dry air mass is expected through mid-week, and downslope warming/drying will promote afternoon RH minimums into the single digits to low teens both days across eastern NM and far western TX. Multiple preceding days of dry conditions will also favor an expansion of available fuels by Tues/Wed that should support the fire weather concern. Widespread critical fire weather conditions appear most probable across eastern NM/far western TX on D3/Tuesday when lee troughing is forecast to be strongest. Medium-range ensemble guidance shows fairly high (75%) probability for gradient wind speeds greater than 20 mph with stronger gusts likely. With confidence in critical wind speeds increasing, the 70% probability risk area has been extended southward into southeast NM and adjacent portions of far western TX. On D4/Wednesday, a cold front pushing into the south-central Plains will limit the potential for robust lee troughing, shunting stronger surface pressure falls southward towards the Rio Grande Valley. Breezy westerly winds will likely be confined to southern NM where the surface pressure gradient should be the strongest, though a few solutions hint that critical conditions may develop further north in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Beyond D4/Wednesday, a cooler continental air mass will continue to push into the southern Plains with weakening zonal flow aloft. Areas of dry/breezy conditions are possible, but will likely be confined to eastern AZ/southwest NM. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire weather conditions will persist into the middle of the work week across the southern High Plains where fuels are currently the driest across the country. A broad swath of westerly mid-level flow will remain in place across the central/southern Rockies through the middle of the work week in the wake of a progressive upper low (currently in place over the Great Basin). This will maintain a westerly downslope flow regime over the central/southern High Plains through at least D4/Wednesday before a cool, continental air mass overspreads the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. ...D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the southern CONUS. Persistent 40-60 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain in place over NM/CO both days, which will maintain some form of lee troughing and breezy westerly pressure gradient winds. Little to no appreciable rainfall or moisture recovery of an antecedent dry air mass is expected through mid-week, and downslope warming/drying will promote afternoon RH minimums into the single digits to low teens both days across eastern NM and far western TX. Multiple preceding days of dry conditions will also favor an expansion of available fuels by Tues/Wed that should support the fire weather concern. Widespread critical fire weather conditions appear most probable across eastern NM/far western TX on D3/Tuesday when lee troughing is forecast to be strongest. Medium-range ensemble guidance shows fairly high (75%) probability for gradient wind speeds greater than 20 mph with stronger gusts likely. With confidence in critical wind speeds increasing, the 70% probability risk area has been extended southward into southeast NM and adjacent portions of far western TX. On D4/Wednesday, a cold front pushing into the south-central Plains will limit the potential for robust lee troughing, shunting stronger surface pressure falls southward towards the Rio Grande Valley. Breezy westerly winds will likely be confined to southern NM where the surface pressure gradient should be the strongest, though a few solutions hint that critical conditions may develop further north in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Beyond D4/Wednesday, a cooler continental air mass will continue to push into the southern Plains with weakening zonal flow aloft. Areas of dry/breezy conditions are possible, but will likely be confined to eastern AZ/southwest NM. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire weather conditions will persist into the middle of the work week across the southern High Plains where fuels are currently the driest across the country. A broad swath of westerly mid-level flow will remain in place across the central/southern Rockies through the middle of the work week in the wake of a progressive upper low (currently in place over the Great Basin). This will maintain a westerly downslope flow regime over the central/southern High Plains through at least D4/Wednesday before a cool, continental air mass overspreads the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. ...D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the southern CONUS. Persistent 40-60 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain in place over NM/CO both days, which will maintain some form of lee troughing and breezy westerly pressure gradient winds. Little to no appreciable rainfall or moisture recovery of an antecedent dry air mass is expected through mid-week, and downslope warming/drying will promote afternoon RH minimums into the single digits to low teens both days across eastern NM and far western TX. Multiple preceding days of dry conditions will also favor an expansion of available fuels by Tues/Wed that should support the fire weather concern. Widespread critical fire weather conditions appear most probable across eastern NM/far western TX on D3/Tuesday when lee troughing is forecast to be strongest. Medium-range ensemble guidance shows fairly high (75%) probability for gradient wind speeds greater than 20 mph with stronger gusts likely. With confidence in critical wind speeds increasing, the 70% probability risk area has been extended southward into southeast NM and adjacent portions of far western TX. On D4/Wednesday, a cold front pushing into the south-central Plains will limit the potential for robust lee troughing, shunting stronger surface pressure falls southward towards the Rio Grande Valley. Breezy westerly winds will likely be confined to southern NM where the surface pressure gradient should be the strongest, though a few solutions hint that critical conditions may develop further north in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Beyond D4/Wednesday, a cooler continental air mass will continue to push into the southern Plains with weakening zonal flow aloft. Areas of dry/breezy conditions are possible, but will likely be confined to eastern AZ/southwest NM. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire weather conditions will persist into the middle of the work week across the southern High Plains where fuels are currently the driest across the country. A broad swath of westerly mid-level flow will remain in place across the central/southern Rockies through the middle of the work week in the wake of a progressive upper low (currently in place over the Great Basin). This will maintain a westerly downslope flow regime over the central/southern High Plains through at least D4/Wednesday before a cool, continental air mass overspreads the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. ...D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the southern CONUS. Persistent 40-60 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain in place over NM/CO both days, which will maintain some form of lee troughing and breezy westerly pressure gradient winds. Little to no appreciable rainfall or moisture recovery of an antecedent dry air mass is expected through mid-week, and downslope warming/drying will promote afternoon RH minimums into the single digits to low teens both days across eastern NM and far western TX. Multiple preceding days of dry conditions will also favor an expansion of available fuels by Tues/Wed that should support the fire weather concern. Widespread critical fire weather conditions appear most probable across eastern NM/far western TX on D3/Tuesday when lee troughing is forecast to be strongest. Medium-range ensemble guidance shows fairly high (75%) probability for gradient wind speeds greater than 20 mph with stronger gusts likely. With confidence in critical wind speeds increasing, the 70% probability risk area has been extended southward into southeast NM and adjacent portions of far western TX. On D4/Wednesday, a cold front pushing into the south-central Plains will limit the potential for robust lee troughing, shunting stronger surface pressure falls southward towards the Rio Grande Valley. Breezy westerly winds will likely be confined to southern NM where the surface pressure gradient should be the strongest, though a few solutions hint that critical conditions may develop further north in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Beyond D4/Wednesday, a cooler continental air mass will continue to push into the southern Plains with weakening zonal flow aloft. Areas of dry/breezy conditions are possible, but will likely be confined to eastern AZ/southwest NM. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire weather conditions will persist into the middle of the work week across the southern High Plains where fuels are currently the driest across the country. A broad swath of westerly mid-level flow will remain in place across the central/southern Rockies through the middle of the work week in the wake of a progressive upper low (currently in place over the Great Basin). This will maintain a westerly downslope flow regime over the central/southern High Plains through at least D4/Wednesday before a cool, continental air mass overspreads the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. ...D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the southern CONUS. Persistent 40-60 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain in place over NM/CO both days, which will maintain some form of lee troughing and breezy westerly pressure gradient winds. Little to no appreciable rainfall or moisture recovery of an antecedent dry air mass is expected through mid-week, and downslope warming/drying will promote afternoon RH minimums into the single digits to low teens both days across eastern NM and far western TX. Multiple preceding days of dry conditions will also favor an expansion of available fuels by Tues/Wed that should support the fire weather concern. Widespread critical fire weather conditions appear most probable across eastern NM/far western TX on D3/Tuesday when lee troughing is forecast to be strongest. Medium-range ensemble guidance shows fairly high (75%) probability for gradient wind speeds greater than 20 mph with stronger gusts likely. With confidence in critical wind speeds increasing, the 70% probability risk area has been extended southward into southeast NM and adjacent portions of far western TX. On D4/Wednesday, a cold front pushing into the south-central Plains will limit the potential for robust lee troughing, shunting stronger surface pressure falls southward towards the Rio Grande Valley. Breezy westerly winds will likely be confined to southern NM where the surface pressure gradient should be the strongest, though a few solutions hint that critical conditions may develop further north in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Beyond D4/Wednesday, a cooler continental air mass will continue to push into the southern Plains with weakening zonal flow aloft. Areas of dry/breezy conditions are possible, but will likely be confined to eastern AZ/southwest NM. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0641 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST AR...SOUTHEAST MO...NORTHWEST MS...WESTERN TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0641 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Areas affected...Northeast AR...Southeast MO...Northwest MS...Western TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051816Z - 052015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging winds and a brief tornado will spread northeastward this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A convectively enhanced shortwave trough is moving northeastward across the ArkLaTex region this afternoon. A loosely organized arc of convection is ongoing along the northeastern periphery of the deeper cloud field associated with the shortwave, from northeast AR into northwest MS. The southern part of this convective arc is intersecting a weak, nearly stationary front near the AR/TN/southeast MO border region. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, diurnal heating of a relatively moist airmass will support moderate destabilization with time, especially near and to the east of the surface front, with MLCAPE potentially increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg. Some intensification of the ongoing convection into a loosely organized MCS will be possible as downstream instability gradually increases. Further heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates may eventually support potential for localized strong/damaging gusts as storms move northeastward this afternoon. Also, while convection may tend to outpace northeastward advance of stronger 1-2 km AGL flow (noted in KLZK and KSHV VWPs), low-level shear/SRH may become sufficient to support a brief tornado, especially where storms intersect the weak surface front. At this time, the severe threat is expected to remain isolated, making watch issuance unlikely. Trends will continue to be monitored for an uptick in storm organization through the afternoon. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 35439178 35749225 36239204 36499154 36988993 36618926 35798886 34788869 34128896 33758951 33678971 33729036 33769064 34569077 35109122 35439178 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update was to increase severe probabilities across the Arklatex region. ..Arklatex.. Low-level moisture continues to quickly advect northward into the region, with a resulting increase in buoyancy as well. Recent surface analysis places a weak low over far southeast OK, with modest troughing extending southwestward from this low. An effective warm front also extends southeastward from this low, coincident with the leading edge of the better low-level moisture. Interaction of these surface features with the destabilizing airmass could result in thunderstorm development. Vertical shear is strong enough to support organized storm structures, and a few storms may be able to produce hail and/or damaging as well as a brief tornado. ...Elsewhere... Forecast outlined in the previous outlook (appended below) remains valid for South TX, where supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts are ongoing. These will likely continue for the next few hours while slowly progressing southward. Also, as discussed in the previous outlook and recently issued MD #640, the potential for isolated damaging gust will persist across the Upper OH Valley into the early evening. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update was to increase severe probabilities across the Arklatex region. ..Arklatex.. Low-level moisture continues to quickly advect northward into the region, with a resulting increase in buoyancy as well. Recent surface analysis places a weak low over far southeast OK, with modest troughing extending southwestward from this low. An effective warm front also extends southeastward from this low, coincident with the leading edge of the better low-level moisture. Interaction of these surface features with the destabilizing airmass could result in thunderstorm development. Vertical shear is strong enough to support organized storm structures, and a few storms may be able to produce hail and/or damaging as well as a brief tornado. ...Elsewhere... Forecast outlined in the previous outlook (appended below) remains valid for South TX, where supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts are ongoing. These will likely continue for the next few hours while slowly progressing southward. Also, as discussed in the previous outlook and recently issued MD #640, the potential for isolated damaging gust will persist across the Upper OH Valley into the early evening. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update was to increase severe probabilities across the Arklatex region. ..Arklatex.. Low-level moisture continues to quickly advect northward into the region, with a resulting increase in buoyancy as well. Recent surface analysis places a weak low over far southeast OK, with modest troughing extending southwestward from this low. An effective warm front also extends southeastward from this low, coincident with the leading edge of the better low-level moisture. Interaction of these surface features with the destabilizing airmass could result in thunderstorm development. Vertical shear is strong enough to support organized storm structures, and a few storms may be able to produce hail and/or damaging as well as a brief tornado. ...Elsewhere... Forecast outlined in the previous outlook (appended below) remains valid for South TX, where supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts are ongoing. These will likely continue for the next few hours while slowly progressing southward. Also, as discussed in the previous outlook and recently issued MD #640, the potential for isolated damaging gust will persist across the Upper OH Valley into the early evening. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update was to increase severe probabilities across the Arklatex region. ..Arklatex.. Low-level moisture continues to quickly advect northward into the region, with a resulting increase in buoyancy as well. Recent surface analysis places a weak low over far southeast OK, with modest troughing extending southwestward from this low. An effective warm front also extends southeastward from this low, coincident with the leading edge of the better low-level moisture. Interaction of these surface features with the destabilizing airmass could result in thunderstorm development. Vertical shear is strong enough to support organized storm structures, and a few storms may be able to produce hail and/or damaging as well as a brief tornado. ...Elsewhere... Forecast outlined in the previous outlook (appended below) remains valid for South TX, where supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts are ongoing. These will likely continue for the next few hours while slowly progressing southward. Also, as discussed in the previous outlook and recently issued MD #640, the potential for isolated damaging gust will persist across the Upper OH Valley into the early evening. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. Read more