Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0383 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Upper MS Valley into the Mid MO Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This secondary low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley despite limited heating (i.e. highs only in the mid to upper 70s). Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible (i.e. highs in the mid 80s). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy. Limited buoyancy and more meridional deep-layer flow will likely temper the severe potential across the Upper MS Valley with a multicellular, anafrontal storm mode most likely. Some isolated damaging gusts and/or hail is still possible. Greater severe potential is possible across the Mid MO valley, where stronger buoyancy and more zonal/boundary-parallel deep-layer shear is anticipated. An initially more cellular mode is possible, with large hail as the primary severe risk. A relatively quick transition to a more linear mode is likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary risk. ...KS/OK.. A surface low will likely be over the southwest KS/northwest OK vicinity early Tuesday morning. This low may shift gradually northeastward while another low develops farther south over northwest TX where strong diurnal heating and southwesterly low-level flow will help push temperatures over 100. Modest troughing will extend between these two lows during the afternoon/evening. The influence of the front will be much less across OK and KS versus areas farther north. Instead, convergence along the troughing connecting the two surface lows and strong heating may be enough to over the capping. Mid-level temperatures will be quite warm (i.e. from 12 to 14 deg C at 700 mb), but if convective initiation is realized, ample low-level moisture will support robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding initiation precludes anything but 5% hail/wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Elsewhere... One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, including one over the Mid MS Valley and another over the Mid-South early Tuesday. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes, but weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Upper MS Valley into the Mid MO Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This secondary low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley despite limited heating (i.e. highs only in the mid to upper 70s). Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible (i.e. highs in the mid 80s). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy. Limited buoyancy and more meridional deep-layer flow will likely temper the severe potential across the Upper MS Valley with a multicellular, anafrontal storm mode most likely. Some isolated damaging gusts and/or hail is still possible. Greater severe potential is possible across the Mid MO valley, where stronger buoyancy and more zonal/boundary-parallel deep-layer shear is anticipated. An initially more cellular mode is possible, with large hail as the primary severe risk. A relatively quick transition to a more linear mode is likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary risk. ...KS/OK.. A surface low will likely be over the southwest KS/northwest OK vicinity early Tuesday morning. This low may shift gradually northeastward while another low develops farther south over northwest TX where strong diurnal heating and southwesterly low-level flow will help push temperatures over 100. Modest troughing will extend between these two lows during the afternoon/evening. The influence of the front will be much less across OK and KS versus areas farther north. Instead, convergence along the troughing connecting the two surface lows and strong heating may be enough to over the capping. Mid-level temperatures will be quite warm (i.e. from 12 to 14 deg C at 700 mb), but if convective initiation is realized, ample low-level moisture will support robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding initiation precludes anything but 5% hail/wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Elsewhere... One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, including one over the Mid MS Valley and another over the Mid-South early Tuesday. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes, but weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Upper MS Valley into the Mid MO Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This secondary low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley despite limited heating (i.e. highs only in the mid to upper 70s). Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible (i.e. highs in the mid 80s). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy. Limited buoyancy and more meridional deep-layer flow will likely temper the severe potential across the Upper MS Valley with a multicellular, anafrontal storm mode most likely. Some isolated damaging gusts and/or hail is still possible. Greater severe potential is possible across the Mid MO valley, where stronger buoyancy and more zonal/boundary-parallel deep-layer shear is anticipated. An initially more cellular mode is possible, with large hail as the primary severe risk. A relatively quick transition to a more linear mode is likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary risk. ...KS/OK.. A surface low will likely be over the southwest KS/northwest OK vicinity early Tuesday morning. This low may shift gradually northeastward while another low develops farther south over northwest TX where strong diurnal heating and southwesterly low-level flow will help push temperatures over 100. Modest troughing will extend between these two lows during the afternoon/evening. The influence of the front will be much less across OK and KS versus areas farther north. Instead, convergence along the troughing connecting the two surface lows and strong heating may be enough to over the capping. Mid-level temperatures will be quite warm (i.e. from 12 to 14 deg C at 700 mb), but if convective initiation is realized, ample low-level moisture will support robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding initiation precludes anything but 5% hail/wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Elsewhere... One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, including one over the Mid MS Valley and another over the Mid-South early Tuesday. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes, but weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Upper MS Valley into the Mid MO Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This secondary low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley despite limited heating (i.e. highs only in the mid to upper 70s). Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible (i.e. highs in the mid 80s). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy. Limited buoyancy and more meridional deep-layer flow will likely temper the severe potential across the Upper MS Valley with a multicellular, anafrontal storm mode most likely. Some isolated damaging gusts and/or hail is still possible. Greater severe potential is possible across the Mid MO valley, where stronger buoyancy and more zonal/boundary-parallel deep-layer shear is anticipated. An initially more cellular mode is possible, with large hail as the primary severe risk. A relatively quick transition to a more linear mode is likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary risk. ...KS/OK.. A surface low will likely be over the southwest KS/northwest OK vicinity early Tuesday morning. This low may shift gradually northeastward while another low develops farther south over northwest TX where strong diurnal heating and southwesterly low-level flow will help push temperatures over 100. Modest troughing will extend between these two lows during the afternoon/evening. The influence of the front will be much less across OK and KS versus areas farther north. Instead, convergence along the troughing connecting the two surface lows and strong heating may be enough to over the capping. Mid-level temperatures will be quite warm (i.e. from 12 to 14 deg C at 700 mb), but if convective initiation is realized, ample low-level moisture will support robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding initiation precludes anything but 5% hail/wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Elsewhere... One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, including one over the Mid MS Valley and another over the Mid-South early Tuesday. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes, but weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Upper MS Valley into the Mid MO Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This secondary low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley despite limited heating (i.e. highs only in the mid to upper 70s). Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible (i.e. highs in the mid 80s). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy. Limited buoyancy and more meridional deep-layer flow will likely temper the severe potential across the Upper MS Valley with a multicellular, anafrontal storm mode most likely. Some isolated damaging gusts and/or hail is still possible. Greater severe potential is possible across the Mid MO valley, where stronger buoyancy and more zonal/boundary-parallel deep-layer shear is anticipated. An initially more cellular mode is possible, with large hail as the primary severe risk. A relatively quick transition to a more linear mode is likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary risk. ...KS/OK.. A surface low will likely be over the southwest KS/northwest OK vicinity early Tuesday morning. This low may shift gradually northeastward while another low develops farther south over northwest TX where strong diurnal heating and southwesterly low-level flow will help push temperatures over 100. Modest troughing will extend between these two lows during the afternoon/evening. The influence of the front will be much less across OK and KS versus areas farther north. Instead, convergence along the troughing connecting the two surface lows and strong heating may be enough to over the capping. Mid-level temperatures will be quite warm (i.e. from 12 to 14 deg C at 700 mb), but if convective initiation is realized, ample low-level moisture will support robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding initiation precludes anything but 5% hail/wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Elsewhere... One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, including one over the Mid MS Valley and another over the Mid-South early Tuesday. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes, but weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Upper MS Valley into the Mid MO Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This secondary low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley despite limited heating (i.e. highs only in the mid to upper 70s). Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible (i.e. highs in the mid 80s). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy. Limited buoyancy and more meridional deep-layer flow will likely temper the severe potential across the Upper MS Valley with a multicellular, anafrontal storm mode most likely. Some isolated damaging gusts and/or hail is still possible. Greater severe potential is possible across the Mid MO valley, where stronger buoyancy and more zonal/boundary-parallel deep-layer shear is anticipated. An initially more cellular mode is possible, with large hail as the primary severe risk. A relatively quick transition to a more linear mode is likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary risk. ...KS/OK.. A surface low will likely be over the southwest KS/northwest OK vicinity early Tuesday morning. This low may shift gradually northeastward while another low develops farther south over northwest TX where strong diurnal heating and southwesterly low-level flow will help push temperatures over 100. Modest troughing will extend between these two lows during the afternoon/evening. The influence of the front will be much less across OK and KS versus areas farther north. Instead, convergence along the troughing connecting the two surface lows and strong heating may be enough to over the capping. Mid-level temperatures will be quite warm (i.e. from 12 to 14 deg C at 700 mb), but if convective initiation is realized, ample low-level moisture will support robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding initiation precludes anything but 5% hail/wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Elsewhere... One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, including one over the Mid MS Valley and another over the Mid-South early Tuesday. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes, but weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Upper MS Valley into the Mid MO Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This secondary low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley despite limited heating (i.e. highs only in the mid to upper 70s). Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible (i.e. highs in the mid 80s). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy. Limited buoyancy and more meridional deep-layer flow will likely temper the severe potential across the Upper MS Valley with a multicellular, anafrontal storm mode most likely. Some isolated damaging gusts and/or hail is still possible. Greater severe potential is possible across the Mid MO valley, where stronger buoyancy and more zonal/boundary-parallel deep-layer shear is anticipated. An initially more cellular mode is possible, with large hail as the primary severe risk. A relatively quick transition to a more linear mode is likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary risk. ...KS/OK.. A surface low will likely be over the southwest KS/northwest OK vicinity early Tuesday morning. This low may shift gradually northeastward while another low develops farther south over northwest TX where strong diurnal heating and southwesterly low-level flow will help push temperatures over 100. Modest troughing will extend between these two lows during the afternoon/evening. The influence of the front will be much less across OK and KS versus areas farther north. Instead, convergence along the troughing connecting the two surface lows and strong heating may be enough to over the capping. Mid-level temperatures will be quite warm (i.e. from 12 to 14 deg C at 700 mb), but if convective initiation is realized, ample low-level moisture will support robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding initiation precludes anything but 5% hail/wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Elsewhere... One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, including one over the Mid MS Valley and another over the Mid-South early Tuesday. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes, but weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Upper MS Valley into the Mid MO Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This secondary low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley despite limited heating (i.e. highs only in the mid to upper 70s). Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible (i.e. highs in the mid 80s). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy. Limited buoyancy and more meridional deep-layer flow will likely temper the severe potential across the Upper MS Valley with a multicellular, anafrontal storm mode most likely. Some isolated damaging gusts and/or hail is still possible. Greater severe potential is possible across the Mid MO valley, where stronger buoyancy and more zonal/boundary-parallel deep-layer shear is anticipated. An initially more cellular mode is possible, with large hail as the primary severe risk. A relatively quick transition to a more linear mode is likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary risk. ...KS/OK.. A surface low will likely be over the southwest KS/northwest OK vicinity early Tuesday morning. This low may shift gradually northeastward while another low develops farther south over northwest TX where strong diurnal heating and southwesterly low-level flow will help push temperatures over 100. Modest troughing will extend between these two lows during the afternoon/evening. The influence of the front will be much less across OK and KS versus areas farther north. Instead, convergence along the troughing connecting the two surface lows and strong heating may be enough to over the capping. Mid-level temperatures will be quite warm (i.e. from 12 to 14 deg C at 700 mb), but if convective initiation is realized, ample low-level moisture will support robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding initiation precludes anything but 5% hail/wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Elsewhere... One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, including one over the Mid MS Valley and another over the Mid-South early Tuesday. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes, but weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Upper MS Valley into the Mid MO Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This secondary low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley despite limited heating (i.e. highs only in the mid to upper 70s). Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible (i.e. highs in the mid 80s). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy. Limited buoyancy and more meridional deep-layer flow will likely temper the severe potential across the Upper MS Valley with a multicellular, anafrontal storm mode most likely. Some isolated damaging gusts and/or hail is still possible. Greater severe potential is possible across the Mid MO valley, where stronger buoyancy and more zonal/boundary-parallel deep-layer shear is anticipated. An initially more cellular mode is possible, with large hail as the primary severe risk. A relatively quick transition to a more linear mode is likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary risk. ...KS/OK.. A surface low will likely be over the southwest KS/northwest OK vicinity early Tuesday morning. This low may shift gradually northeastward while another low develops farther south over northwest TX where strong diurnal heating and southwesterly low-level flow will help push temperatures over 100. Modest troughing will extend between these two lows during the afternoon/evening. The influence of the front will be much less across OK and KS versus areas farther north. Instead, convergence along the troughing connecting the two surface lows and strong heating may be enough to over the capping. Mid-level temperatures will be quite warm (i.e. from 12 to 14 deg C at 700 mb), but if convective initiation is realized, ample low-level moisture will support robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding initiation precludes anything but 5% hail/wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Elsewhere... One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, including one over the Mid MS Valley and another over the Mid-South early Tuesday. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes, but weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Upper MS Valley into the Mid MO Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This secondary low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley despite limited heating (i.e. highs only in the mid to upper 70s). Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible (i.e. highs in the mid 80s). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy. Limited buoyancy and more meridional deep-layer flow will likely temper the severe potential across the Upper MS Valley with a multicellular, anafrontal storm mode most likely. Some isolated damaging gusts and/or hail is still possible. Greater severe potential is possible across the Mid MO valley, where stronger buoyancy and more zonal/boundary-parallel deep-layer shear is anticipated. An initially more cellular mode is possible, with large hail as the primary severe risk. A relatively quick transition to a more linear mode is likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary risk. ...KS/OK.. A surface low will likely be over the southwest KS/northwest OK vicinity early Tuesday morning. This low may shift gradually northeastward while another low develops farther south over northwest TX where strong diurnal heating and southwesterly low-level flow will help push temperatures over 100. Modest troughing will extend between these two lows during the afternoon/evening. The influence of the front will be much less across OK and KS versus areas farther north. Instead, convergence along the troughing connecting the two surface lows and strong heating may be enough to over the capping. Mid-level temperatures will be quite warm (i.e. from 12 to 14 deg C at 700 mb), but if convective initiation is realized, ample low-level moisture will support robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding initiation precludes anything but 5% hail/wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Elsewhere... One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, including one over the Mid MS Valley and another over the Mid-South early Tuesday. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes, but weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Upper MS Valley into the Mid MO Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This secondary low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley despite limited heating (i.e. highs only in the mid to upper 70s). Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible (i.e. highs in the mid 80s). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy. Limited buoyancy and more meridional deep-layer flow will likely temper the severe potential across the Upper MS Valley with a multicellular, anafrontal storm mode most likely. Some isolated damaging gusts and/or hail is still possible. Greater severe potential is possible across the Mid MO valley, where stronger buoyancy and more zonal/boundary-parallel deep-layer shear is anticipated. An initially more cellular mode is possible, with large hail as the primary severe risk. A relatively quick transition to a more linear mode is likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary risk. ...KS/OK.. A surface low will likely be over the southwest KS/northwest OK vicinity early Tuesday morning. This low may shift gradually northeastward while another low develops farther south over northwest TX where strong diurnal heating and southwesterly low-level flow will help push temperatures over 100. Modest troughing will extend between these two lows during the afternoon/evening. The influence of the front will be much less across OK and KS versus areas farther north. Instead, convergence along the troughing connecting the two surface lows and strong heating may be enough to over the capping. Mid-level temperatures will be quite warm (i.e. from 12 to 14 deg C at 700 mb), but if convective initiation is realized, ample low-level moisture will support robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding initiation precludes anything but 5% hail/wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Elsewhere... One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, including one over the Mid MS Valley and another over the Mid-South early Tuesday. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes, but weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Upper MS Valley into the Mid MO Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This secondary low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley despite limited heating (i.e. highs only in the mid to upper 70s). Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible (i.e. highs in the mid 80s). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy. Limited buoyancy and more meridional deep-layer flow will likely temper the severe potential across the Upper MS Valley with a multicellular, anafrontal storm mode most likely. Some isolated damaging gusts and/or hail is still possible. Greater severe potential is possible across the Mid MO valley, where stronger buoyancy and more zonal/boundary-parallel deep-layer shear is anticipated. An initially more cellular mode is possible, with large hail as the primary severe risk. A relatively quick transition to a more linear mode is likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary risk. ...KS/OK.. A surface low will likely be over the southwest KS/northwest OK vicinity early Tuesday morning. This low may shift gradually northeastward while another low develops farther south over northwest TX where strong diurnal heating and southwesterly low-level flow will help push temperatures over 100. Modest troughing will extend between these two lows during the afternoon/evening. The influence of the front will be much less across OK and KS versus areas farther north. Instead, convergence along the troughing connecting the two surface lows and strong heating may be enough to over the capping. Mid-level temperatures will be quite warm (i.e. from 12 to 14 deg C at 700 mb), but if convective initiation is realized, ample low-level moisture will support robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding initiation precludes anything but 5% hail/wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Elsewhere... One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, including one over the Mid MS Valley and another over the Mid-South early Tuesday. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes, but weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Upper MS Valley into the Mid MO Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This secondary low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley despite limited heating (i.e. highs only in the mid to upper 70s). Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible (i.e. highs in the mid 80s). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy. Limited buoyancy and more meridional deep-layer flow will likely temper the severe potential across the Upper MS Valley with a multicellular, anafrontal storm mode most likely. Some isolated damaging gusts and/or hail is still possible. Greater severe potential is possible across the Mid MO valley, where stronger buoyancy and more zonal/boundary-parallel deep-layer shear is anticipated. An initially more cellular mode is possible, with large hail as the primary severe risk. A relatively quick transition to a more linear mode is likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary risk. ...KS/OK.. A surface low will likely be over the southwest KS/northwest OK vicinity early Tuesday morning. This low may shift gradually northeastward while another low develops farther south over northwest TX where strong diurnal heating and southwesterly low-level flow will help push temperatures over 100. Modest troughing will extend between these two lows during the afternoon/evening. The influence of the front will be much less across OK and KS versus areas farther north. Instead, convergence along the troughing connecting the two surface lows and strong heating may be enough to over the capping. Mid-level temperatures will be quite warm (i.e. from 12 to 14 deg C at 700 mb), but if convective initiation is realized, ample low-level moisture will support robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding initiation precludes anything but 5% hail/wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Elsewhere... One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, including one over the Mid MS Valley and another over the Mid-South early Tuesday. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes, but weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southern Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... Within a weak and predominately zonal mid-level flow regime, a complex series of mesoscale features will dictate the potential for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A subtle, convectively enhanced shortwave trough currently over the mid Missouri Valley will move into parts of the upper Midwest by early afternoon. A second remnant MCS appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over the southern/central Plains. The potential outflow from this system may serve as a focus for secondary initiation later in the afternoon across parts of TX and OK. Additional storms are also possible along the dryline in Southwest TX. ...Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley... Rich low-level moisture advection is expected to be ongoing with southerly low-level flow across much of the Midwest ahead of the remnant MCV early this morning. Some clearing should allow diurnal heating to support moderate destabilization ahead of the MCV from eastern IA into southern WI and far northern IL despite relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Weak convergence and some ascent from the convectively enhanced shortwave should allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer shear profiles are not particularly strong (20-30 kt), though some low and mid-level enhancement from the MCV may be enough to support organized multicells and a few transient supercells structures. Damaging wind gusts, hail and a brief tornado or two will be possible. More isolated storms are also possible along a subtle wind shift/ surface pressure trough farther south across parts of eastern MO and western IL. However, confidence in storm development here is low owing to the potential disruption of diurnal heating from cloud debris or remnant convection from the overnight central Plains MCS. Still, a few instances of hail or damaging winds are possible should an organized multicell cluster or two develop. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaMs... Short-term CAM and regional model guidance has come into fairly strong agreement on the presence of an overnight MCS across parts of the central Plains. By 12z convection will most likely be located across parts of southern KS, to as far as northeast OK. Relatively clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection (low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints) will likely be in place ahead of the early morning storms. This, along with numerous CAM solutions, suggests intensification of this cluster is likely from late morning through the early afternoon hours as it tracks east/southeastward into AR. Despite modest forcing for ascent, a broad swath of moderate to large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) and a fairly organized cold pool may support storms farther east into parts of the lower MS valley with a risk for damaging winds and hail into the evening hours. In the wake of the morning cluster of storms, a trailing outflow boundary is likely to be located somewhere over the southern Plains from central/southern OK into the Panhandle/western north TX. With very rich low-level moisture moving in from central TX (mean W of 16-18 G/kg), modification of this outflow boundary may serve as a focus for additional storm development through the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the mostly zonal flow. This appears especially likely where the boundary could intersect with the dryline over parts of the eastern TX Panhandle, far western OK and western north TX. Model soundings here show very large buoyancy (4500-6000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Should storms form (pending the location of the outflow) large buoyancy and sufficient shear would support a risk for large to very large hail, damaging gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster or MCS may also support a risk for damaging winds downstream into parts of central TX later into the evening. ...Southwest TX... Along the southern portions of the dryline, very hot temperatures 95-105F are likely along with rich boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s F. While large-scale ascent appears rather nebulous, the diurnal dryline circulation and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development near the international border. While modest, 25-30 kt of mid-level flow within the sub-tropical jet may support some organization into isolated supercell structures. While uncertain, a few instances of hail and damaging winds are possible. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southern Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... Within a weak and predominately zonal mid-level flow regime, a complex series of mesoscale features will dictate the potential for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A subtle, convectively enhanced shortwave trough currently over the mid Missouri Valley will move into parts of the upper Midwest by early afternoon. A second remnant MCS appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over the southern/central Plains. The potential outflow from this system may serve as a focus for secondary initiation later in the afternoon across parts of TX and OK. Additional storms are also possible along the dryline in Southwest TX. ...Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley... Rich low-level moisture advection is expected to be ongoing with southerly low-level flow across much of the Midwest ahead of the remnant MCV early this morning. Some clearing should allow diurnal heating to support moderate destabilization ahead of the MCV from eastern IA into southern WI and far northern IL despite relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Weak convergence and some ascent from the convectively enhanced shortwave should allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer shear profiles are not particularly strong (20-30 kt), though some low and mid-level enhancement from the MCV may be enough to support organized multicells and a few transient supercells structures. Damaging wind gusts, hail and a brief tornado or two will be possible. More isolated storms are also possible along a subtle wind shift/ surface pressure trough farther south across parts of eastern MO and western IL. However, confidence in storm development here is low owing to the potential disruption of diurnal heating from cloud debris or remnant convection from the overnight central Plains MCS. Still, a few instances of hail or damaging winds are possible should an organized multicell cluster or two develop. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaMs... Short-term CAM and regional model guidance has come into fairly strong agreement on the presence of an overnight MCS across parts of the central Plains. By 12z convection will most likely be located across parts of southern KS, to as far as northeast OK. Relatively clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection (low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints) will likely be in place ahead of the early morning storms. This, along with numerous CAM solutions, suggests intensification of this cluster is likely from late morning through the early afternoon hours as it tracks east/southeastward into AR. Despite modest forcing for ascent, a broad swath of moderate to large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) and a fairly organized cold pool may support storms farther east into parts of the lower MS valley with a risk for damaging winds and hail into the evening hours. In the wake of the morning cluster of storms, a trailing outflow boundary is likely to be located somewhere over the southern Plains from central/southern OK into the Panhandle/western north TX. With very rich low-level moisture moving in from central TX (mean W of 16-18 G/kg), modification of this outflow boundary may serve as a focus for additional storm development through the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the mostly zonal flow. This appears especially likely where the boundary could intersect with the dryline over parts of the eastern TX Panhandle, far western OK and western north TX. Model soundings here show very large buoyancy (4500-6000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Should storms form (pending the location of the outflow) large buoyancy and sufficient shear would support a risk for large to very large hail, damaging gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster or MCS may also support a risk for damaging winds downstream into parts of central TX later into the evening. ...Southwest TX... Along the southern portions of the dryline, very hot temperatures 95-105F are likely along with rich boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s F. While large-scale ascent appears rather nebulous, the diurnal dryline circulation and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development near the international border. While modest, 25-30 kt of mid-level flow within the sub-tropical jet may support some organization into isolated supercell structures. While uncertain, a few instances of hail and damaging winds are possible. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southern Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... Within a weak and predominately zonal mid-level flow regime, a complex series of mesoscale features will dictate the potential for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A subtle, convectively enhanced shortwave trough currently over the mid Missouri Valley will move into parts of the upper Midwest by early afternoon. A second remnant MCS appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over the southern/central Plains. The potential outflow from this system may serve as a focus for secondary initiation later in the afternoon across parts of TX and OK. Additional storms are also possible along the dryline in Southwest TX. ...Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley... Rich low-level moisture advection is expected to be ongoing with southerly low-level flow across much of the Midwest ahead of the remnant MCV early this morning. Some clearing should allow diurnal heating to support moderate destabilization ahead of the MCV from eastern IA into southern WI and far northern IL despite relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Weak convergence and some ascent from the convectively enhanced shortwave should allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer shear profiles are not particularly strong (20-30 kt), though some low and mid-level enhancement from the MCV may be enough to support organized multicells and a few transient supercells structures. Damaging wind gusts, hail and a brief tornado or two will be possible. More isolated storms are also possible along a subtle wind shift/ surface pressure trough farther south across parts of eastern MO and western IL. However, confidence in storm development here is low owing to the potential disruption of diurnal heating from cloud debris or remnant convection from the overnight central Plains MCS. Still, a few instances of hail or damaging winds are possible should an organized multicell cluster or two develop. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaMs... Short-term CAM and regional model guidance has come into fairly strong agreement on the presence of an overnight MCS across parts of the central Plains. By 12z convection will most likely be located across parts of southern KS, to as far as northeast OK. Relatively clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection (low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints) will likely be in place ahead of the early morning storms. This, along with numerous CAM solutions, suggests intensification of this cluster is likely from late morning through the early afternoon hours as it tracks east/southeastward into AR. Despite modest forcing for ascent, a broad swath of moderate to large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) and a fairly organized cold pool may support storms farther east into parts of the lower MS valley with a risk for damaging winds and hail into the evening hours. In the wake of the morning cluster of storms, a trailing outflow boundary is likely to be located somewhere over the southern Plains from central/southern OK into the Panhandle/western north TX. With very rich low-level moisture moving in from central TX (mean W of 16-18 G/kg), modification of this outflow boundary may serve as a focus for additional storm development through the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the mostly zonal flow. This appears especially likely where the boundary could intersect with the dryline over parts of the eastern TX Panhandle, far western OK and western north TX. Model soundings here show very large buoyancy (4500-6000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Should storms form (pending the location of the outflow) large buoyancy and sufficient shear would support a risk for large to very large hail, damaging gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster or MCS may also support a risk for damaging winds downstream into parts of central TX later into the evening. ...Southwest TX... Along the southern portions of the dryline, very hot temperatures 95-105F are likely along with rich boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s F. While large-scale ascent appears rather nebulous, the diurnal dryline circulation and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development near the international border. While modest, 25-30 kt of mid-level flow within the sub-tropical jet may support some organization into isolated supercell structures. While uncertain, a few instances of hail and damaging winds are possible. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southern Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... Within a weak and predominately zonal mid-level flow regime, a complex series of mesoscale features will dictate the potential for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A subtle, convectively enhanced shortwave trough currently over the mid Missouri Valley will move into parts of the upper Midwest by early afternoon. A second remnant MCS appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over the southern/central Plains. The potential outflow from this system may serve as a focus for secondary initiation later in the afternoon across parts of TX and OK. Additional storms are also possible along the dryline in Southwest TX. ...Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley... Rich low-level moisture advection is expected to be ongoing with southerly low-level flow across much of the Midwest ahead of the remnant MCV early this morning. Some clearing should allow diurnal heating to support moderate destabilization ahead of the MCV from eastern IA into southern WI and far northern IL despite relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Weak convergence and some ascent from the convectively enhanced shortwave should allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer shear profiles are not particularly strong (20-30 kt), though some low and mid-level enhancement from the MCV may be enough to support organized multicells and a few transient supercells structures. Damaging wind gusts, hail and a brief tornado or two will be possible. More isolated storms are also possible along a subtle wind shift/ surface pressure trough farther south across parts of eastern MO and western IL. However, confidence in storm development here is low owing to the potential disruption of diurnal heating from cloud debris or remnant convection from the overnight central Plains MCS. Still, a few instances of hail or damaging winds are possible should an organized multicell cluster or two develop. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaMs... Short-term CAM and regional model guidance has come into fairly strong agreement on the presence of an overnight MCS across parts of the central Plains. By 12z convection will most likely be located across parts of southern KS, to as far as northeast OK. Relatively clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection (low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints) will likely be in place ahead of the early morning storms. This, along with numerous CAM solutions, suggests intensification of this cluster is likely from late morning through the early afternoon hours as it tracks east/southeastward into AR. Despite modest forcing for ascent, a broad swath of moderate to large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) and a fairly organized cold pool may support storms farther east into parts of the lower MS valley with a risk for damaging winds and hail into the evening hours. In the wake of the morning cluster of storms, a trailing outflow boundary is likely to be located somewhere over the southern Plains from central/southern OK into the Panhandle/western north TX. With very rich low-level moisture moving in from central TX (mean W of 16-18 G/kg), modification of this outflow boundary may serve as a focus for additional storm development through the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the mostly zonal flow. This appears especially likely where the boundary could intersect with the dryline over parts of the eastern TX Panhandle, far western OK and western north TX. Model soundings here show very large buoyancy (4500-6000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Should storms form (pending the location of the outflow) large buoyancy and sufficient shear would support a risk for large to very large hail, damaging gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster or MCS may also support a risk for damaging winds downstream into parts of central TX later into the evening. ...Southwest TX... Along the southern portions of the dryline, very hot temperatures 95-105F are likely along with rich boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s F. While large-scale ascent appears rather nebulous, the diurnal dryline circulation and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development near the international border. While modest, 25-30 kt of mid-level flow within the sub-tropical jet may support some organization into isolated supercell structures. While uncertain, a few instances of hail and damaging winds are possible. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southern Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... Within a weak and predominately zonal mid-level flow regime, a complex series of mesoscale features will dictate the potential for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A subtle, convectively enhanced shortwave trough currently over the mid Missouri Valley will move into parts of the upper Midwest by early afternoon. A second remnant MCS appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over the southern/central Plains. The potential outflow from this system may serve as a focus for secondary initiation later in the afternoon across parts of TX and OK. Additional storms are also possible along the dryline in Southwest TX. ...Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley... Rich low-level moisture advection is expected to be ongoing with southerly low-level flow across much of the Midwest ahead of the remnant MCV early this morning. Some clearing should allow diurnal heating to support moderate destabilization ahead of the MCV from eastern IA into southern WI and far northern IL despite relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Weak convergence and some ascent from the convectively enhanced shortwave should allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer shear profiles are not particularly strong (20-30 kt), though some low and mid-level enhancement from the MCV may be enough to support organized multicells and a few transient supercells structures. Damaging wind gusts, hail and a brief tornado or two will be possible. More isolated storms are also possible along a subtle wind shift/ surface pressure trough farther south across parts of eastern MO and western IL. However, confidence in storm development here is low owing to the potential disruption of diurnal heating from cloud debris or remnant convection from the overnight central Plains MCS. Still, a few instances of hail or damaging winds are possible should an organized multicell cluster or two develop. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaMs... Short-term CAM and regional model guidance has come into fairly strong agreement on the presence of an overnight MCS across parts of the central Plains. By 12z convection will most likely be located across parts of southern KS, to as far as northeast OK. Relatively clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection (low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints) will likely be in place ahead of the early morning storms. This, along with numerous CAM solutions, suggests intensification of this cluster is likely from late morning through the early afternoon hours as it tracks east/southeastward into AR. Despite modest forcing for ascent, a broad swath of moderate to large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) and a fairly organized cold pool may support storms farther east into parts of the lower MS valley with a risk for damaging winds and hail into the evening hours. In the wake of the morning cluster of storms, a trailing outflow boundary is likely to be located somewhere over the southern Plains from central/southern OK into the Panhandle/western north TX. With very rich low-level moisture moving in from central TX (mean W of 16-18 G/kg), modification of this outflow boundary may serve as a focus for additional storm development through the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the mostly zonal flow. This appears especially likely where the boundary could intersect with the dryline over parts of the eastern TX Panhandle, far western OK and western north TX. Model soundings here show very large buoyancy (4500-6000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Should storms form (pending the location of the outflow) large buoyancy and sufficient shear would support a risk for large to very large hail, damaging gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster or MCS may also support a risk for damaging winds downstream into parts of central TX later into the evening. ...Southwest TX... Along the southern portions of the dryline, very hot temperatures 95-105F are likely along with rich boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s F. While large-scale ascent appears rather nebulous, the diurnal dryline circulation and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development near the international border. While modest, 25-30 kt of mid-level flow within the sub-tropical jet may support some organization into isolated supercell structures. While uncertain, a few instances of hail and damaging winds are possible. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/03/2024 Read more