Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will pivot through the Southwest this morning with mid-level winds remaining strong across the southern Rockies. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the northern High Plains with a surface trough extending southward along the lee of the Rockies. Strong mid-level winds will combine with the strong surface pressure gradient to promote winds of 20+ mph, particularly in parts of eastern New Mexico. RH during the afternoon will fall to near 10-15%. Elevated to critical fire weather is expected given dry fuels present in New Mexico. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will pivot through the Southwest this morning with mid-level winds remaining strong across the southern Rockies. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the northern High Plains with a surface trough extending southward along the lee of the Rockies. Strong mid-level winds will combine with the strong surface pressure gradient to promote winds of 20+ mph, particularly in parts of eastern New Mexico. RH during the afternoon will fall to near 10-15%. Elevated to critical fire weather is expected given dry fuels present in New Mexico. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday across from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large hail, and severe/damaging winds should occur. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. ...Southern Plains into the Mid-South/mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... An upper low will remain over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. An embedded shortwave trough will eject eastward across the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley through the period. The primary surface low of interest will move across MO into IL/IN through the day, with a warm front extending eastward from this low across the OH Valley. An attendant cold front should also make some southeastward progress across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley. A volatile setup from severe thunderstorms has become more apparent from northeast TX into the Mid-South/mid MS Valley and parts of the OH Valley, where and Enhanced Risk has been introduced. Here, a very favorable combination of strong instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to develop, supporting a threat for supercells and intense bowing clusters/line segments. Current expectations are for severe convection to erupt fairly early in the day, perhaps by late Wednesday morning, along both the cold front and warm front as ascent with the shortwave trough overspreads the rapidly destabilizing warm sector. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain, very large hail will be a threat with initial supercells, and severe/damaging winds will likely become an increasing concern as intense convection spreads east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening. A moderate to strong low-level jet should migrate eastward across the mid MS and OH Valleys through the day, supporting enhanced low-level shear, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Tornadoes will be a concern with any supercells in this favorable shear environment. Some of these tornadoes could be strong given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. The severe threat is expected to continue with southward and eastward extent into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and central/southern Appalachians through at least Wednesday evening before eventually weakening. Peripheral areas of severe potential are also apparent. One such area is in IA and vicinity with low-topped convection beneath the cold-core upper low. Another is in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas with a separate mid-level shortwave trough and surface lee trough extending southward along the length of the Appalachians. The severe threat across these regions is currently expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday across from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large hail, and severe/damaging winds should occur. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. ...Southern Plains into the Mid-South/mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... An upper low will remain over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. An embedded shortwave trough will eject eastward across the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley through the period. The primary surface low of interest will move across MO into IL/IN through the day, with a warm front extending eastward from this low across the OH Valley. An attendant cold front should also make some southeastward progress across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley. A volatile setup from severe thunderstorms has become more apparent from northeast TX into the Mid-South/mid MS Valley and parts of the OH Valley, where and Enhanced Risk has been introduced. Here, a very favorable combination of strong instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to develop, supporting a threat for supercells and intense bowing clusters/line segments. Current expectations are for severe convection to erupt fairly early in the day, perhaps by late Wednesday morning, along both the cold front and warm front as ascent with the shortwave trough overspreads the rapidly destabilizing warm sector. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain, very large hail will be a threat with initial supercells, and severe/damaging winds will likely become an increasing concern as intense convection spreads east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening. A moderate to strong low-level jet should migrate eastward across the mid MS and OH Valleys through the day, supporting enhanced low-level shear, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Tornadoes will be a concern with any supercells in this favorable shear environment. Some of these tornadoes could be strong given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. The severe threat is expected to continue with southward and eastward extent into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and central/southern Appalachians through at least Wednesday evening before eventually weakening. Peripheral areas of severe potential are also apparent. One such area is in IA and vicinity with low-topped convection beneath the cold-core upper low. Another is in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas with a separate mid-level shortwave trough and surface lee trough extending southward along the length of the Appalachians. The severe threat across these regions is currently expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday across from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large hail, and severe/damaging winds should occur. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. ...Southern Plains into the Mid-South/mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... An upper low will remain over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. An embedded shortwave trough will eject eastward across the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley through the period. The primary surface low of interest will move across MO into IL/IN through the day, with a warm front extending eastward from this low across the OH Valley. An attendant cold front should also make some southeastward progress across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley. A volatile setup from severe thunderstorms has become more apparent from northeast TX into the Mid-South/mid MS Valley and parts of the OH Valley, where and Enhanced Risk has been introduced. Here, a very favorable combination of strong instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to develop, supporting a threat for supercells and intense bowing clusters/line segments. Current expectations are for severe convection to erupt fairly early in the day, perhaps by late Wednesday morning, along both the cold front and warm front as ascent with the shortwave trough overspreads the rapidly destabilizing warm sector. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain, very large hail will be a threat with initial supercells, and severe/damaging winds will likely become an increasing concern as intense convection spreads east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening. A moderate to strong low-level jet should migrate eastward across the mid MS and OH Valleys through the day, supporting enhanced low-level shear, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Tornadoes will be a concern with any supercells in this favorable shear environment. Some of these tornadoes could be strong given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. The severe threat is expected to continue with southward and eastward extent into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and central/southern Appalachians through at least Wednesday evening before eventually weakening. Peripheral areas of severe potential are also apparent. One such area is in IA and vicinity with low-topped convection beneath the cold-core upper low. Another is in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas with a separate mid-level shortwave trough and surface lee trough extending southward along the length of the Appalachians. The severe threat across these regions is currently expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday across from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large hail, and severe/damaging winds should occur. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. ...Southern Plains into the Mid-South/mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... An upper low will remain over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. An embedded shortwave trough will eject eastward across the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley through the period. The primary surface low of interest will move across MO into IL/IN through the day, with a warm front extending eastward from this low across the OH Valley. An attendant cold front should also make some southeastward progress across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley. A volatile setup from severe thunderstorms has become more apparent from northeast TX into the Mid-South/mid MS Valley and parts of the OH Valley, where and Enhanced Risk has been introduced. Here, a very favorable combination of strong instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to develop, supporting a threat for supercells and intense bowing clusters/line segments. Current expectations are for severe convection to erupt fairly early in the day, perhaps by late Wednesday morning, along both the cold front and warm front as ascent with the shortwave trough overspreads the rapidly destabilizing warm sector. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain, very large hail will be a threat with initial supercells, and severe/damaging winds will likely become an increasing concern as intense convection spreads east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening. A moderate to strong low-level jet should migrate eastward across the mid MS and OH Valleys through the day, supporting enhanced low-level shear, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Tornadoes will be a concern with any supercells in this favorable shear environment. Some of these tornadoes could be strong given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. The severe threat is expected to continue with southward and eastward extent into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and central/southern Appalachians through at least Wednesday evening before eventually weakening. Peripheral areas of severe potential are also apparent. One such area is in IA and vicinity with low-topped convection beneath the cold-core upper low. Another is in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas with a separate mid-level shortwave trough and surface lee trough extending southward along the length of the Appalachians. The severe threat across these regions is currently expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday across from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large hail, and severe/damaging winds should occur. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. ...Southern Plains into the Mid-South/mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... An upper low will remain over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. An embedded shortwave trough will eject eastward across the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley through the period. The primary surface low of interest will move across MO into IL/IN through the day, with a warm front extending eastward from this low across the OH Valley. An attendant cold front should also make some southeastward progress across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley. A volatile setup from severe thunderstorms has become more apparent from northeast TX into the Mid-South/mid MS Valley and parts of the OH Valley, where and Enhanced Risk has been introduced. Here, a very favorable combination of strong instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to develop, supporting a threat for supercells and intense bowing clusters/line segments. Current expectations are for severe convection to erupt fairly early in the day, perhaps by late Wednesday morning, along both the cold front and warm front as ascent with the shortwave trough overspreads the rapidly destabilizing warm sector. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain, very large hail will be a threat with initial supercells, and severe/damaging winds will likely become an increasing concern as intense convection spreads east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening. A moderate to strong low-level jet should migrate eastward across the mid MS and OH Valleys through the day, supporting enhanced low-level shear, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Tornadoes will be a concern with any supercells in this favorable shear environment. Some of these tornadoes could be strong given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. The severe threat is expected to continue with southward and eastward extent into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and central/southern Appalachians through at least Wednesday evening before eventually weakening. Peripheral areas of severe potential are also apparent. One such area is in IA and vicinity with low-topped convection beneath the cold-core upper low. Another is in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas with a separate mid-level shortwave trough and surface lee trough extending southward along the length of the Appalachians. The severe threat across these regions is currently expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday across from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large hail, and severe/damaging winds should occur. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. ...Southern Plains into the Mid-South/mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... An upper low will remain over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. An embedded shortwave trough will eject eastward across the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley through the period. The primary surface low of interest will move across MO into IL/IN through the day, with a warm front extending eastward from this low across the OH Valley. An attendant cold front should also make some southeastward progress across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley. A volatile setup from severe thunderstorms has become more apparent from northeast TX into the Mid-South/mid MS Valley and parts of the OH Valley, where and Enhanced Risk has been introduced. Here, a very favorable combination of strong instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to develop, supporting a threat for supercells and intense bowing clusters/line segments. Current expectations are for severe convection to erupt fairly early in the day, perhaps by late Wednesday morning, along both the cold front and warm front as ascent with the shortwave trough overspreads the rapidly destabilizing warm sector. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain, very large hail will be a threat with initial supercells, and severe/damaging winds will likely become an increasing concern as intense convection spreads east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening. A moderate to strong low-level jet should migrate eastward across the mid MS and OH Valleys through the day, supporting enhanced low-level shear, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Tornadoes will be a concern with any supercells in this favorable shear environment. Some of these tornadoes could be strong given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. The severe threat is expected to continue with southward and eastward extent into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and central/southern Appalachians through at least Wednesday evening before eventually weakening. Peripheral areas of severe potential are also apparent. One such area is in IA and vicinity with low-topped convection beneath the cold-core upper low. Another is in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas with a separate mid-level shortwave trough and surface lee trough extending southward along the length of the Appalachians. The severe threat across these regions is currently expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad trough will develop across much of the western and central U.S. on Tuesday. Strong flow aloft will remain across the southern Rockies. A deeper surface cyclone is expected to develop in the southern High Plains as compared to Monday. The coverage and 20+ mph winds in New Mexico should be somewhat greater as a result. RH will once again drop to 10-15% during the afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather is once again expected. Dry and breezy conditions will extend into parts of the southern High Plains and western Kansas, but fuels appear less receptive in these areas. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad trough will develop across much of the western and central U.S. on Tuesday. Strong flow aloft will remain across the southern Rockies. A deeper surface cyclone is expected to develop in the southern High Plains as compared to Monday. The coverage and 20+ mph winds in New Mexico should be somewhat greater as a result. RH will once again drop to 10-15% during the afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather is once again expected. Dry and breezy conditions will extend into parts of the southern High Plains and western Kansas, but fuels appear less receptive in these areas. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will pivot through the Southwest this morning with mid-level winds remaining strong across the southern Rockies. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the northern High Plains with a surface trough extending southward along the lee of the Rockies. Strong mid-level winds will combine with the strong surface pressure gradient to promote winds of 20+ mph, particularly in parts of eastern New Mexico. RH during the afternoon will fall to near 10-15%. Elevated to critical fire weather is expected given dry fuels present in New Mexico. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will pivot through the Southwest this morning with mid-level winds remaining strong across the southern Rockies. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the northern High Plains with a surface trough extending southward along the lee of the Rockies. Strong mid-level winds will combine with the strong surface pressure gradient to promote winds of 20+ mph, particularly in parts of eastern New Mexico. RH during the afternoon will fall to near 10-15%. Elevated to critical fire weather is expected given dry fuels present in New Mexico. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2024 CORRECTED FOR GENERAL AREA ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Western, central and northern Oklahoma Southern Kansas * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2024 CORRECTED FOR GENERAL AREA ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Western, central and northern Oklahoma Southern Kansas * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2024 CORRECTED FOR GENERAL AREA ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Western, central and northern Oklahoma Southern Kansas * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2024 CORRECTED FOR GENERAL AREA ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Western, central and northern Oklahoma Southern Kansas * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2024 CORRECTED FOR GENERAL AREA ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Western, central and northern Oklahoma Southern Kansas * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday from the Mid-South northeastward into the Ohio Valley. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains should slowly occlude on Tuesday. A convectively augmented mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the day. The primary surface low over ND should weaken/occlude through the day, while a separate, weak low is forecast to develop northeastward across the Upper Midwest in tandem with the shortwave trough. A cold front will sweep eastward across the Midwest/OH Valley through the day before decelerating, while a warm front simultaneously lifts northward across the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes. ...Mid-South/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley... There is relatively high confidence that a band of strong to severe convection will be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning over parts of the Midwest/mid MS Valley. This convection will probably weaken though the morning as it encounters a less unstable airmass into the OH Valley. But, it may still pose some threat for damaging winds. With somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates overspreading a moist low-level airmass, moderate to locally strong instability should develop with diurnal heating across much of the warm sector in the OH/TN Valleys. The effect of the early-day convection complicates the potential for a greater severe threat. Still, eventual regeneration along the morning convection's outflow and/or leading edge seems probable into Tuesday afternoon. Strengthening mid-level flow on the nose of an enhanced (50-70 kt) mid-level jet will aid in the development of strong deep-layer shear, which will support organized updrafts/severe convection. Overall mode may be somewhat messy, with a mix of supercells and multicell clusters possible. Regardless, any persistent supercells should be capable of producing large to very large hail. Low-level shear associated with a 25-35 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet appears sufficient to support updraft rotation and a threat for a few tornadoes, mainly across the OH Valley. If thunderstorms can congeal into one or more clusters, then a greater threat for severe/damaging winds would be realized. This convection should spread into the western parts of the central Appalachians Tuesday evening before eventually weakening. ...Upper Midwest... Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper trough should foster the development of weak instability through Tuesday afternoon. Strong large-scale ascent will likely encourage the development of low-topped thunderstorms across parts of WI and vicinity. Isolated hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust cores, and a brief tornado or two also appears possible. ...Virginia/North Carolina... Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms may develop Tuesday afternoon across parts of VA/NC, generally along/east of a weak surface lee trough. Sufficient forecast instability and shear should be present to support some threat for hail and strong winds with any thunderstorms that form. The overall severe threat is expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Deep South... Weaker forcing with southward extent across the lower MS Valley/Deep South suggests a more conditional severe threat compared to locations farther north. But, at least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday afternoon/evening, especially along a weak surface trough extending into parts of MS/AL. ...Central Texas... A highly conditional threat for thunderstorms is apparent across parts of central TX Tuesday afternoon along/near a low-level moisture gradient/sharpening dryline. While large-scale ascent aloft appears negligible, if any thunderstorms can form and persist, they could become severe given a strongly unstable airmass. This scenario appears too uncertain to add low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday from the Mid-South northeastward into the Ohio Valley. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains should slowly occlude on Tuesday. A convectively augmented mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the day. The primary surface low over ND should weaken/occlude through the day, while a separate, weak low is forecast to develop northeastward across the Upper Midwest in tandem with the shortwave trough. A cold front will sweep eastward across the Midwest/OH Valley through the day before decelerating, while a warm front simultaneously lifts northward across the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes. ...Mid-South/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley... There is relatively high confidence that a band of strong to severe convection will be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning over parts of the Midwest/mid MS Valley. This convection will probably weaken though the morning as it encounters a less unstable airmass into the OH Valley. But, it may still pose some threat for damaging winds. With somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates overspreading a moist low-level airmass, moderate to locally strong instability should develop with diurnal heating across much of the warm sector in the OH/TN Valleys. The effect of the early-day convection complicates the potential for a greater severe threat. Still, eventual regeneration along the morning convection's outflow and/or leading edge seems probable into Tuesday afternoon. Strengthening mid-level flow on the nose of an enhanced (50-70 kt) mid-level jet will aid in the development of strong deep-layer shear, which will support organized updrafts/severe convection. Overall mode may be somewhat messy, with a mix of supercells and multicell clusters possible. Regardless, any persistent supercells should be capable of producing large to very large hail. Low-level shear associated with a 25-35 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet appears sufficient to support updraft rotation and a threat for a few tornadoes, mainly across the OH Valley. If thunderstorms can congeal into one or more clusters, then a greater threat for severe/damaging winds would be realized. This convection should spread into the western parts of the central Appalachians Tuesday evening before eventually weakening. ...Upper Midwest... Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper trough should foster the development of weak instability through Tuesday afternoon. Strong large-scale ascent will likely encourage the development of low-topped thunderstorms across parts of WI and vicinity. Isolated hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust cores, and a brief tornado or two also appears possible. ...Virginia/North Carolina... Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms may develop Tuesday afternoon across parts of VA/NC, generally along/east of a weak surface lee trough. Sufficient forecast instability and shear should be present to support some threat for hail and strong winds with any thunderstorms that form. The overall severe threat is expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Deep South... Weaker forcing with southward extent across the lower MS Valley/Deep South suggests a more conditional severe threat compared to locations farther north. But, at least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday afternoon/evening, especially along a weak surface trough extending into parts of MS/AL. ...Central Texas... A highly conditional threat for thunderstorms is apparent across parts of central TX Tuesday afternoon along/near a low-level moisture gradient/sharpening dryline. While large-scale ascent aloft appears negligible, if any thunderstorms can form and persist, they could become severe given a strongly unstable airmass. This scenario appears too uncertain to add low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday from the Mid-South northeastward into the Ohio Valley. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains should slowly occlude on Tuesday. A convectively augmented mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the day. The primary surface low over ND should weaken/occlude through the day, while a separate, weak low is forecast to develop northeastward across the Upper Midwest in tandem with the shortwave trough. A cold front will sweep eastward across the Midwest/OH Valley through the day before decelerating, while a warm front simultaneously lifts northward across the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes. ...Mid-South/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley... There is relatively high confidence that a band of strong to severe convection will be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning over parts of the Midwest/mid MS Valley. This convection will probably weaken though the morning as it encounters a less unstable airmass into the OH Valley. But, it may still pose some threat for damaging winds. With somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates overspreading a moist low-level airmass, moderate to locally strong instability should develop with diurnal heating across much of the warm sector in the OH/TN Valleys. The effect of the early-day convection complicates the potential for a greater severe threat. Still, eventual regeneration along the morning convection's outflow and/or leading edge seems probable into Tuesday afternoon. Strengthening mid-level flow on the nose of an enhanced (50-70 kt) mid-level jet will aid in the development of strong deep-layer shear, which will support organized updrafts/severe convection. Overall mode may be somewhat messy, with a mix of supercells and multicell clusters possible. Regardless, any persistent supercells should be capable of producing large to very large hail. Low-level shear associated with a 25-35 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet appears sufficient to support updraft rotation and a threat for a few tornadoes, mainly across the OH Valley. If thunderstorms can congeal into one or more clusters, then a greater threat for severe/damaging winds would be realized. This convection should spread into the western parts of the central Appalachians Tuesday evening before eventually weakening. ...Upper Midwest... Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper trough should foster the development of weak instability through Tuesday afternoon. Strong large-scale ascent will likely encourage the development of low-topped thunderstorms across parts of WI and vicinity. Isolated hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust cores, and a brief tornado or two also appears possible. ...Virginia/North Carolina... Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms may develop Tuesday afternoon across parts of VA/NC, generally along/east of a weak surface lee trough. Sufficient forecast instability and shear should be present to support some threat for hail and strong winds with any thunderstorms that form. The overall severe threat is expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Deep South... Weaker forcing with southward extent across the lower MS Valley/Deep South suggests a more conditional severe threat compared to locations farther north. But, at least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday afternoon/evening, especially along a weak surface trough extending into parts of MS/AL. ...Central Texas... A highly conditional threat for thunderstorms is apparent across parts of central TX Tuesday afternoon along/near a low-level moisture gradient/sharpening dryline. While large-scale ascent aloft appears negligible, if any thunderstorms can form and persist, they could become severe given a strongly unstable airmass. This scenario appears too uncertain to add low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 05/06/2024 Read more