Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley northward to the Upper Mississippi Valley. An area of better organized severe potential is expected across the Middle Missouri Valley where damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will become negatively tilted as it pivots east to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Vertical shear ahead of the trough will remain weak, with stronger deep-layer flow confined to the back side of the trough. At the surface, a cold front oriented north to south from the central Dakotas into northwest KS Tuesday morning will shift east through the period. By Wednesday morning the front is expected to be located from Lake Michigan south/southwest to central OK and northwest TX, though the southern extent of the boundary will be somewhat diffuse. A couple of MCVs also are forecast. The first may be located in the vicinity of the Ozarks, shifting east across the Mid-South and TN Valley. Another MCV near the Mid-MS Valley may lift north/northeast into WI. These features are dependent on convection in the Day 1/Monday period, so some uncertainty in exact location by Tuesday is uncertain. Nevertheless, these features, along with the surface cold front and northern upper trough will provide focus for strong to severe storms across a broad area Tuesday. ...Middle Missouri to Upper Mississippi Valley... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Heating into the 70s and 80s F will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values from 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be marginal across the region, with generally around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes expected. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will be more meridional and parallel to the surface boundary across MN. This may result in anafrontal type convection along the boundary, especially across northern MN. Nevertheless, a corridor of damaging wind and hail potential will exist from the Mid-MO Valley into southeast/east-central MN where stronger heating will result in a band of greater destabilization. ...Northern IL into WI... Convection is expected to develop during the afternoon in response to the northward moving MCV. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of this feature across northern IL into WI. Vertical shear is expected to be weak, though may be locally enhanced near the MCV sufficiently to allow for at least briefly strong to severe storms. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ozarks to Tennessee Valley... Afternoon thunderstorms are possible as one or more convectively enhanced vorticity maxima float across the region. A seasonally moist and moderately unstable, but weakly sheared environment is forecast. Some local enhancement to shear is possible near remnant MCVs or outflow boundaries moving over the area. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible through early evening. ...TX Panhandle into southern OK/north TX... A somewhat conditional risk is expected across the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Tuesday afternoon. Warm midlevel temperatures will likely maintain capping. However, a weak surface low is forecast over the southeast TX Panhandle/southwest OK vicinity. The surface cold front will sag into central OK and the TX Panhandle, but a very moist airmass ahead of this feature will allow moisture to wrap around the weak surface low into the TX Panhandle. Low-level convergence and cooling aloft may allow for a storm or two to develop. If this occurs, large hail and damaging gusts are possible. However, given uncertainty/conditionality only low (5 percent) wind/hail probabilities are included. Most guidance is in better agreement that another MCS may develop near the cold front overnight and move across portions of southern/eastern OK into north TX. This scenario is also uncertain, but some wind/hail risk could accompany this activity if it develops. ...Lower MS Valley... A remnant MCS from the Day 1/Monday period may be ongoing Tuesday morning near the ArkLaTex. Some guidance suggests this system will continue or may reintensify as it shifts east/southeast along an instability gradient over LA into southern MS. Vertical shear will be weak, with little upper support for ascent. However, a very moist and unstable airmass will be present. If a sufficient cold pool and/or MCV exists, this could support continued thunderstorm development into the afternoon. While this remains conditional, low severe probabilities (5 percent) for wind have been introduced. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley northward to the Upper Mississippi Valley. An area of better organized severe potential is expected across the Middle Missouri Valley where damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will become negatively tilted as it pivots east to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Vertical shear ahead of the trough will remain weak, with stronger deep-layer flow confined to the back side of the trough. At the surface, a cold front oriented north to south from the central Dakotas into northwest KS Tuesday morning will shift east through the period. By Wednesday morning the front is expected to be located from Lake Michigan south/southwest to central OK and northwest TX, though the southern extent of the boundary will be somewhat diffuse. A couple of MCVs also are forecast. The first may be located in the vicinity of the Ozarks, shifting east across the Mid-South and TN Valley. Another MCV near the Mid-MS Valley may lift north/northeast into WI. These features are dependent on convection in the Day 1/Monday period, so some uncertainty in exact location by Tuesday is uncertain. Nevertheless, these features, along with the surface cold front and northern upper trough will provide focus for strong to severe storms across a broad area Tuesday. ...Middle Missouri to Upper Mississippi Valley... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Heating into the 70s and 80s F will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values from 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be marginal across the region, with generally around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes expected. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will be more meridional and parallel to the surface boundary across MN. This may result in anafrontal type convection along the boundary, especially across northern MN. Nevertheless, a corridor of damaging wind and hail potential will exist from the Mid-MO Valley into southeast/east-central MN where stronger heating will result in a band of greater destabilization. ...Northern IL into WI... Convection is expected to develop during the afternoon in response to the northward moving MCV. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of this feature across northern IL into WI. Vertical shear is expected to be weak, though may be locally enhanced near the MCV sufficiently to allow for at least briefly strong to severe storms. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ozarks to Tennessee Valley... Afternoon thunderstorms are possible as one or more convectively enhanced vorticity maxima float across the region. A seasonally moist and moderately unstable, but weakly sheared environment is forecast. Some local enhancement to shear is possible near remnant MCVs or outflow boundaries moving over the area. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible through early evening. ...TX Panhandle into southern OK/north TX... A somewhat conditional risk is expected across the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Tuesday afternoon. Warm midlevel temperatures will likely maintain capping. However, a weak surface low is forecast over the southeast TX Panhandle/southwest OK vicinity. The surface cold front will sag into central OK and the TX Panhandle, but a very moist airmass ahead of this feature will allow moisture to wrap around the weak surface low into the TX Panhandle. Low-level convergence and cooling aloft may allow for a storm or two to develop. If this occurs, large hail and damaging gusts are possible. However, given uncertainty/conditionality only low (5 percent) wind/hail probabilities are included. Most guidance is in better agreement that another MCS may develop near the cold front overnight and move across portions of southern/eastern OK into north TX. This scenario is also uncertain, but some wind/hail risk could accompany this activity if it develops. ...Lower MS Valley... A remnant MCS from the Day 1/Monday period may be ongoing Tuesday morning near the ArkLaTex. Some guidance suggests this system will continue or may reintensify as it shifts east/southeast along an instability gradient over LA into southern MS. Vertical shear will be weak, with little upper support for ascent. However, a very moist and unstable airmass will be present. If a sufficient cold pool and/or MCV exists, this could support continued thunderstorm development into the afternoon. While this remains conditional, low severe probabilities (5 percent) for wind have been introduced. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley northward to the Upper Mississippi Valley. An area of better organized severe potential is expected across the Middle Missouri Valley where damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will become negatively tilted as it pivots east to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Vertical shear ahead of the trough will remain weak, with stronger deep-layer flow confined to the back side of the trough. At the surface, a cold front oriented north to south from the central Dakotas into northwest KS Tuesday morning will shift east through the period. By Wednesday morning the front is expected to be located from Lake Michigan south/southwest to central OK and northwest TX, though the southern extent of the boundary will be somewhat diffuse. A couple of MCVs also are forecast. The first may be located in the vicinity of the Ozarks, shifting east across the Mid-South and TN Valley. Another MCV near the Mid-MS Valley may lift north/northeast into WI. These features are dependent on convection in the Day 1/Monday period, so some uncertainty in exact location by Tuesday is uncertain. Nevertheless, these features, along with the surface cold front and northern upper trough will provide focus for strong to severe storms across a broad area Tuesday. ...Middle Missouri to Upper Mississippi Valley... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Heating into the 70s and 80s F will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values from 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be marginal across the region, with generally around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes expected. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will be more meridional and parallel to the surface boundary across MN. This may result in anafrontal type convection along the boundary, especially across northern MN. Nevertheless, a corridor of damaging wind and hail potential will exist from the Mid-MO Valley into southeast/east-central MN where stronger heating will result in a band of greater destabilization. ...Northern IL into WI... Convection is expected to develop during the afternoon in response to the northward moving MCV. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of this feature across northern IL into WI. Vertical shear is expected to be weak, though may be locally enhanced near the MCV sufficiently to allow for at least briefly strong to severe storms. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ozarks to Tennessee Valley... Afternoon thunderstorms are possible as one or more convectively enhanced vorticity maxima float across the region. A seasonally moist and moderately unstable, but weakly sheared environment is forecast. Some local enhancement to shear is possible near remnant MCVs or outflow boundaries moving over the area. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible through early evening. ...TX Panhandle into southern OK/north TX... A somewhat conditional risk is expected across the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Tuesday afternoon. Warm midlevel temperatures will likely maintain capping. However, a weak surface low is forecast over the southeast TX Panhandle/southwest OK vicinity. The surface cold front will sag into central OK and the TX Panhandle, but a very moist airmass ahead of this feature will allow moisture to wrap around the weak surface low into the TX Panhandle. Low-level convergence and cooling aloft may allow for a storm or two to develop. If this occurs, large hail and damaging gusts are possible. However, given uncertainty/conditionality only low (5 percent) wind/hail probabilities are included. Most guidance is in better agreement that another MCS may develop near the cold front overnight and move across portions of southern/eastern OK into north TX. This scenario is also uncertain, but some wind/hail risk could accompany this activity if it develops. ...Lower MS Valley... A remnant MCS from the Day 1/Monday period may be ongoing Tuesday morning near the ArkLaTex. Some guidance suggests this system will continue or may reintensify as it shifts east/southeast along an instability gradient over LA into southern MS. Vertical shear will be weak, with little upper support for ascent. However, a very moist and unstable airmass will be present. If a sufficient cold pool and/or MCV exists, this could support continued thunderstorm development into the afternoon. While this remains conditional, low severe probabilities (5 percent) for wind have been introduced. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley northward to the Upper Mississippi Valley. An area of better organized severe potential is expected across the Middle Missouri Valley where damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will become negatively tilted as it pivots east to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Vertical shear ahead of the trough will remain weak, with stronger deep-layer flow confined to the back side of the trough. At the surface, a cold front oriented north to south from the central Dakotas into northwest KS Tuesday morning will shift east through the period. By Wednesday morning the front is expected to be located from Lake Michigan south/southwest to central OK and northwest TX, though the southern extent of the boundary will be somewhat diffuse. A couple of MCVs also are forecast. The first may be located in the vicinity of the Ozarks, shifting east across the Mid-South and TN Valley. Another MCV near the Mid-MS Valley may lift north/northeast into WI. These features are dependent on convection in the Day 1/Monday period, so some uncertainty in exact location by Tuesday is uncertain. Nevertheless, these features, along with the surface cold front and northern upper trough will provide focus for strong to severe storms across a broad area Tuesday. ...Middle Missouri to Upper Mississippi Valley... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Heating into the 70s and 80s F will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values from 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be marginal across the region, with generally around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes expected. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will be more meridional and parallel to the surface boundary across MN. This may result in anafrontal type convection along the boundary, especially across northern MN. Nevertheless, a corridor of damaging wind and hail potential will exist from the Mid-MO Valley into southeast/east-central MN where stronger heating will result in a band of greater destabilization. ...Northern IL into WI... Convection is expected to develop during the afternoon in response to the northward moving MCV. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of this feature across northern IL into WI. Vertical shear is expected to be weak, though may be locally enhanced near the MCV sufficiently to allow for at least briefly strong to severe storms. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ozarks to Tennessee Valley... Afternoon thunderstorms are possible as one or more convectively enhanced vorticity maxima float across the region. A seasonally moist and moderately unstable, but weakly sheared environment is forecast. Some local enhancement to shear is possible near remnant MCVs or outflow boundaries moving over the area. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible through early evening. ...TX Panhandle into southern OK/north TX... A somewhat conditional risk is expected across the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Tuesday afternoon. Warm midlevel temperatures will likely maintain capping. However, a weak surface low is forecast over the southeast TX Panhandle/southwest OK vicinity. The surface cold front will sag into central OK and the TX Panhandle, but a very moist airmass ahead of this feature will allow moisture to wrap around the weak surface low into the TX Panhandle. Low-level convergence and cooling aloft may allow for a storm or two to develop. If this occurs, large hail and damaging gusts are possible. However, given uncertainty/conditionality only low (5 percent) wind/hail probabilities are included. Most guidance is in better agreement that another MCS may develop near the cold front overnight and move across portions of southern/eastern OK into north TX. This scenario is also uncertain, but some wind/hail risk could accompany this activity if it develops. ...Lower MS Valley... A remnant MCS from the Day 1/Monday period may be ongoing Tuesday morning near the ArkLaTex. Some guidance suggests this system will continue or may reintensify as it shifts east/southeast along an instability gradient over LA into southern MS. Vertical shear will be weak, with little upper support for ascent. However, a very moist and unstable airmass will be present. If a sufficient cold pool and/or MCV exists, this could support continued thunderstorm development into the afternoon. While this remains conditional, low severe probabilities (5 percent) for wind have been introduced. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E OKC TO 20 SSE CQB. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 384 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03/17Z. ..KERR..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC027-125-133-031700- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEVELAND POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E OKC TO 20 SSE CQB. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 384 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03/17Z. ..KERR..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC027-125-133-031700- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEVELAND POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E OKC TO 20 SSE CQB. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 384 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03/17Z. ..KERR..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC027-125-133-031700- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEVELAND POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more