Severe Storms

WW 0385 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CRS TO 35 ENE SHV TO 10 NNW MLU. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-015-017-021-031-043-049-059-081-085-119-127-040340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE RED RIVER SABINE WEBSTER WINN TXC005-073-203-315-347-365-401-403-405-419-040340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA CHEROKEE HARRISON MARION NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0385 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CRS TO 35 ENE SHV TO 10 NNW MLU. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-015-017-021-031-043-049-059-081-085-119-127-040340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE RED RIVER SABINE WEBSTER WINN TXC005-073-203-315-347-365-401-403-405-419-040340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA CHEROKEE HARRISON MARION NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0385 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW GGG TO 35 W ELD TO 25 NNE ELD TO 20 NNW PBF. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-025-027-139-040040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND COLUMBIA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-061-081-111-119-040040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO LINCOLN RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER TXC183-203-315-365-401-423-459-040040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREGG HARRISON MARION Read more

WW 0385 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW GGG TO 35 W ELD TO 25 NNE ELD TO 20 NNW PBF. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-025-027-139-040040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND COLUMBIA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-061-081-111-119-040040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO LINCOLN RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER TXC183-203-315-365-401-423-459-040040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREGG HARRISON MARION Read more

WW 385 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 031835Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 385 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and Southern Arkansas Northern Louisiana Far Southeast Oklahoma Far Northeast Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A squall line will likely continue east-southeast across the Watch area through the afternoon into the early evening. Strong to severe gusts (50-70 mph) will be capable of wind damage with the more intense downdrafts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of De Queen AR to 35 miles east of El Dorado AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0385 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW GGG TO 35 W ELD TO 25 NNE ELD TO 20 NNW PBF. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-025-027-139-040040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND COLUMBIA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-061-081-111-119-040040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO LINCOLN RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER TXC183-203-315-365-401-423-459-040040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREGG HARRISON MARION Read more

WW 385 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 031835Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 385 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and Southern Arkansas Northern Louisiana Far Southeast Oklahoma Far Northeast Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A squall line will likely continue east-southeast across the Watch area through the afternoon into the early evening. Strong to severe gusts (50-70 mph) will be capable of wind damage with the more intense downdrafts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of De Queen AR to 35 miles east of El Dorado AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1155 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 385... FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1155 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Northern Louisiana...Southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385... Valid 032336Z - 040130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage and hail threat will be possible with the stronger cells embedded in and ahead of a line segment from northeast Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Additional weather watch issuance remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a linear MCS that is moving southeast at about 35 knots across the Ark-La-Tex. A pocket of strong instability is present ahead of the line, where surface dewpoints are in the 70s F and MLCAPE is estimated in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. The instability, along with strong large-scale ascent associated with a vorticity maxima and low-level convergence, will support the linear MCS for several more hours as it moves southeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The WSR-88D VWP at Shreveport has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with directional shear in the lowest 2 km. This environment will continue to support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger segments along the leading edge of the line. Cells that form ahead of the line could also have a hail threat. ..Broyles.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 33119387 33739272 33879224 33809177 33489146 32799154 32139208 31779282 31499389 31579517 31909611 32279651 32859657 33129616 33009513 33119387 Read more

MD 1154 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1154 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...Far eastern MT and western ND Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032209Z - 040015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected this afternoon and continuing into the evening. A few damaging gusts and isolated hail are possible. A Watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 22 UTC, regional radar analysis showed isolated thunderstorms had initiated on the eastern edge of a persistent cloud shield near the MT/ND border. Strong diurnal heating has allowed surface temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s F. While surface moisture has mixed somewhat, low 50s F surface dewpoints and weak upslope flow are contributing to weak destabilization. These storms, and additional development may continue eastward into western ND with a risk for damaging winds given the relatively high cloud bases. While buoyancy is modest (~500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) occasional hail will be possible with the stronger updrafts. Given the somewhat limited buoyancy and uncertainty on storm coverage, a WW appears unlikely this evening. ..Lyons/Hart.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 48070503 48770475 49030383 49050203 49030127 48680100 48240084 47750082 47020108 46570148 46380200 46120322 46090367 46120395 46400439 48070503 Read more

WW 0386 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 386 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 386 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-045-055-057-065-129-141-040040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM ELLIS GREER HARMON JACKSON ROGER MILLS TILLMAN TXC009-023-075-087-101-129-155-179-191-197-211-275-295-357-393- 483-485-487-040040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE DONLEY FOARD GRAY HALL HARDEMAN HEMPHILL KNOX LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS WHEELER WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 386 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 032145Z - 040400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 386 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma Northwest Texas and the Eastern Panhandle * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated intense supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. An tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 140 miles north northwest of Altus OK to 85 miles south of Altus OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 385... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1153 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 385... FOR SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1153 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...southwestern through central Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385... Valid 032043Z - 032245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385 continues. SUMMARY...A slowly organizing cluster of thunderstorms will overspread much of central Arkansas, including the Little Rock vicinity, through 5-7 PM CDT, with a continue risk for strong to occasionally severe wind gusts. Trends will continue to be monitored for a possible additional watch downstream, WW 385 could be locally extended northeastward through central Arkansas. DISCUSSION...The ongoing cluster of storms has become a bit better organized, with a developing mesoscale convective vortex now east of Fort Smith, and 50 kt west-northwesterly rear inflow in the 1-3 km AGL layer evident on the Fort Smith VWP. The leading edge of the convective outflow, and stronger convective development, is still advancing eastward at a relatively modest 30+ kt. However, boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing immediately ahead of the outflow into central Arkansas, where 2-hourly surface pressure falls are maximized (around 3 mb) near Little Rock. This could support at least some further intensification and acceleration into early evening. ..Kerr.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33959395 34369348 34999331 35649315 35869248 35509162 34729139 33449221 33329370 33959395 Read more

MD 1152 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1152 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle into parts of northwest Texas and western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 032005Z - 032230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered supercell development appears possible by 5-6 PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, locally damaging wind gusts and potential for a tornado. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer moisture is maximized in a narrow corridor along the modifying trailing flank of outflow from morning convection, near a sharpening dryline. This includes surface dew points near 70F, which appear to be contributing to very large mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, in the presence of steep lapse rates associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting eastward across the southern Great Plains. Westerly deep-layer mean flow is rather modest (on the order of 20-25 kt), but pronounced veering of wind fields with height is contributing to sufficient shear for organized convection, including supercells. Although the primary mid-level perturbation has progressed to the east of the region flow, trailing flow across and east of the Texas Panhandle remains broadly cyclonic. At least attempts at isolated thunderstorm development appear underway beneath this regime to the north of Gage OK. Aided by weak low/mid-level warm advection along and east of the dryline, and the approach of convective temperatures, the initiation of additional widely scattered storms appears possible by 22-23Z. Given the environment, storms will tend to be slow moving, with stronger cells tending to take on a southward propagation, posing a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and at least some risk for a tornado. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36330092 36519938 35169961 34439889 33589846 33209969 34570067 35280088 36330092 Read more

WW 0386 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0386 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0386 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0386 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1151 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1151 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Minnesota and portions of eastern Iowa into western Wisconsin and northwestern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031915Z - 032115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong/locally severe storms are expected to evolve with time near the Upper Mississippi River Valley, and spread eastward/northeastward with time. With the stronger storms expected to remain isolated, and magnitude of risk likely to remain limited, WW issuance is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms developing from near the southeastern Minnesota/Wisconsin border/Mississippi River southward into northeastern Iowa. The convection is occurring in an area of heating/destabilization that is ongoing west of remnant precipitation and associated cloud cover across central and eastern Wisconsin. While continued heating -- which has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values to around 2000 J/kg -- will likely support additional storm development, the deep-layer wind field only modestly increases/veers with height. This suggests mainly multicell organization of the stronger updrafts, likely limiting overall severe potential. In addition, with storms tending to shift eastward/northeastward into the more rain- and cloud-cooled airmass with eastward extent, current expectations are that WW issuance may not be required. ..Goss/Smith.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 42189276 43409268 44369298 44969244 44779079 43468944 42278875 41669039 41749205 42189276 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Confidence in widespread, robust fire weather concerns remains limited through the extended period, though regional concerns will likely emerge by late week through the upcoming weekend. ...D5/Friday to D7/Sunday - Southwest to southern Great Basin... Long-range ensemble guidance has maintained reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper ridge over the western CONUS through the end of the work week. As this occurs, unseasonably warm temperatures will overspread the Southwest, which should promote widespread drying/curing of fuels along with low relative humidity. While the fire environment will steadily improve in regards to moisture and fuel status, weak low to mid-level winds under the upper ridge should generally limit fire weather concerns. Regional elevated conditions will be possible each day, and are most likely to occur over the weekend across parts of AZ into the southern Great Basin as a weak mid-level disturbance impinges on the western fringe of the heat dome/upper ridge. However, confidence in critical conditions remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains... A gradual transition to an upslope flow regime is anticipated beginning later this week across the southern to central High Plains. A combination of terrain heating/orographic ascent and modest, but sufficient, low to mid-level moisture should promote isolated thunderstorm chances each day from southern NM to southern CO. Forecast PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inches and a weak QPF signal in ensemble guidance suggest a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is probable, but with dry fuels already in place, the potential for lightning-initiated fire starts should increase through the weekend. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Pacific Northwest... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is also possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest over the weekend as weak mid-level waves propagate into the region on the northwest fringe of the upper ridge. An influx of Pacific moisture with PWAT values above 0.75 inches should favor wet thunderstorms, but fast storm motions may limit overall precipitation amounts. While this potential is noted based on recent global guidance, such mesoscale details remain nebulous at this range. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Confidence in widespread, robust fire weather concerns remains limited through the extended period, though regional concerns will likely emerge by late week through the upcoming weekend. ...D5/Friday to D7/Sunday - Southwest to southern Great Basin... Long-range ensemble guidance has maintained reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper ridge over the western CONUS through the end of the work week. As this occurs, unseasonably warm temperatures will overspread the Southwest, which should promote widespread drying/curing of fuels along with low relative humidity. While the fire environment will steadily improve in regards to moisture and fuel status, weak low to mid-level winds under the upper ridge should generally limit fire weather concerns. Regional elevated conditions will be possible each day, and are most likely to occur over the weekend across parts of AZ into the southern Great Basin as a weak mid-level disturbance impinges on the western fringe of the heat dome/upper ridge. However, confidence in critical conditions remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains... A gradual transition to an upslope flow regime is anticipated beginning later this week across the southern to central High Plains. A combination of terrain heating/orographic ascent and modest, but sufficient, low to mid-level moisture should promote isolated thunderstorm chances each day from southern NM to southern CO. Forecast PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inches and a weak QPF signal in ensemble guidance suggest a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is probable, but with dry fuels already in place, the potential for lightning-initiated fire starts should increase through the weekend. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Pacific Northwest... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is also possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest over the weekend as weak mid-level waves propagate into the region on the northwest fringe of the upper ridge. An influx of Pacific moisture with PWAT values above 0.75 inches should favor wet thunderstorms, but fast storm motions may limit overall precipitation amounts. While this potential is noted based on recent global guidance, such mesoscale details remain nebulous at this range. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Confidence in widespread, robust fire weather concerns remains limited through the extended period, though regional concerns will likely emerge by late week through the upcoming weekend. ...D5/Friday to D7/Sunday - Southwest to southern Great Basin... Long-range ensemble guidance has maintained reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper ridge over the western CONUS through the end of the work week. As this occurs, unseasonably warm temperatures will overspread the Southwest, which should promote widespread drying/curing of fuels along with low relative humidity. While the fire environment will steadily improve in regards to moisture and fuel status, weak low to mid-level winds under the upper ridge should generally limit fire weather concerns. Regional elevated conditions will be possible each day, and are most likely to occur over the weekend across parts of AZ into the southern Great Basin as a weak mid-level disturbance impinges on the western fringe of the heat dome/upper ridge. However, confidence in critical conditions remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains... A gradual transition to an upslope flow regime is anticipated beginning later this week across the southern to central High Plains. A combination of terrain heating/orographic ascent and modest, but sufficient, low to mid-level moisture should promote isolated thunderstorm chances each day from southern NM to southern CO. Forecast PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inches and a weak QPF signal in ensemble guidance suggest a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is probable, but with dry fuels already in place, the potential for lightning-initiated fire starts should increase through the weekend. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Pacific Northwest... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is also possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest over the weekend as weak mid-level waves propagate into the region on the northwest fringe of the upper ridge. An influx of Pacific moisture with PWAT values above 0.75 inches should favor wet thunderstorms, but fast storm motions may limit overall precipitation amounts. While this potential is noted based on recent global guidance, such mesoscale details remain nebulous at this range. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Confidence in widespread, robust fire weather concerns remains limited through the extended period, though regional concerns will likely emerge by late week through the upcoming weekend. ...D5/Friday to D7/Sunday - Southwest to southern Great Basin... Long-range ensemble guidance has maintained reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper ridge over the western CONUS through the end of the work week. As this occurs, unseasonably warm temperatures will overspread the Southwest, which should promote widespread drying/curing of fuels along with low relative humidity. While the fire environment will steadily improve in regards to moisture and fuel status, weak low to mid-level winds under the upper ridge should generally limit fire weather concerns. Regional elevated conditions will be possible each day, and are most likely to occur over the weekend across parts of AZ into the southern Great Basin as a weak mid-level disturbance impinges on the western fringe of the heat dome/upper ridge. However, confidence in critical conditions remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains... A gradual transition to an upslope flow regime is anticipated beginning later this week across the southern to central High Plains. A combination of terrain heating/orographic ascent and modest, but sufficient, low to mid-level moisture should promote isolated thunderstorm chances each day from southern NM to southern CO. Forecast PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inches and a weak QPF signal in ensemble guidance suggest a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is probable, but with dry fuels already in place, the potential for lightning-initiated fire starts should increase through the weekend. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Pacific Northwest... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is also possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest over the weekend as weak mid-level waves propagate into the region on the northwest fringe of the upper ridge. An influx of Pacific moisture with PWAT values above 0.75 inches should favor wet thunderstorms, but fast storm motions may limit overall precipitation amounts. While this potential is noted based on recent global guidance, such mesoscale details remain nebulous at this range. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more