Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Confidence in widespread, robust fire weather concerns remains limited through the extended period, though regional concerns will likely emerge by late week through the upcoming weekend. ...D5/Friday to D7/Sunday - Southwest to southern Great Basin... Long-range ensemble guidance has maintained reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper ridge over the western CONUS through the end of the work week. As this occurs, unseasonably warm temperatures will overspread the Southwest, which should promote widespread drying/curing of fuels along with low relative humidity. While the fire environment will steadily improve in regards to moisture and fuel status, weak low to mid-level winds under the upper ridge should generally limit fire weather concerns. Regional elevated conditions will be possible each day, and are most likely to occur over the weekend across parts of AZ into the southern Great Basin as a weak mid-level disturbance impinges on the western fringe of the heat dome/upper ridge. However, confidence in critical conditions remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains... A gradual transition to an upslope flow regime is anticipated beginning later this week across the southern to central High Plains. A combination of terrain heating/orographic ascent and modest, but sufficient, low to mid-level moisture should promote isolated thunderstorm chances each day from southern NM to southern CO. Forecast PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inches and a weak QPF signal in ensemble guidance suggest a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is probable, but with dry fuels already in place, the potential for lightning-initiated fire starts should increase through the weekend. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Pacific Northwest... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is also possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest over the weekend as weak mid-level waves propagate into the region on the northwest fringe of the upper ridge. An influx of Pacific moisture with PWAT values above 0.75 inches should favor wet thunderstorms, but fast storm motions may limit overall precipitation amounts. While this potential is noted based on recent global guidance, such mesoscale details remain nebulous at this range. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Confidence in widespread, robust fire weather concerns remains limited through the extended period, though regional concerns will likely emerge by late week through the upcoming weekend. ...D5/Friday to D7/Sunday - Southwest to southern Great Basin... Long-range ensemble guidance has maintained reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper ridge over the western CONUS through the end of the work week. As this occurs, unseasonably warm temperatures will overspread the Southwest, which should promote widespread drying/curing of fuels along with low relative humidity. While the fire environment will steadily improve in regards to moisture and fuel status, weak low to mid-level winds under the upper ridge should generally limit fire weather concerns. Regional elevated conditions will be possible each day, and are most likely to occur over the weekend across parts of AZ into the southern Great Basin as a weak mid-level disturbance impinges on the western fringe of the heat dome/upper ridge. However, confidence in critical conditions remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains... A gradual transition to an upslope flow regime is anticipated beginning later this week across the southern to central High Plains. A combination of terrain heating/orographic ascent and modest, but sufficient, low to mid-level moisture should promote isolated thunderstorm chances each day from southern NM to southern CO. Forecast PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inches and a weak QPF signal in ensemble guidance suggest a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is probable, but with dry fuels already in place, the potential for lightning-initiated fire starts should increase through the weekend. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Pacific Northwest... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is also possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest over the weekend as weak mid-level waves propagate into the region on the northwest fringe of the upper ridge. An influx of Pacific moisture with PWAT values above 0.75 inches should favor wet thunderstorms, but fast storm motions may limit overall precipitation amounts. While this potential is noted based on recent global guidance, such mesoscale details remain nebulous at this range. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Confidence in widespread, robust fire weather concerns remains limited through the extended period, though regional concerns will likely emerge by late week through the upcoming weekend. ...D5/Friday to D7/Sunday - Southwest to southern Great Basin... Long-range ensemble guidance has maintained reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper ridge over the western CONUS through the end of the work week. As this occurs, unseasonably warm temperatures will overspread the Southwest, which should promote widespread drying/curing of fuels along with low relative humidity. While the fire environment will steadily improve in regards to moisture and fuel status, weak low to mid-level winds under the upper ridge should generally limit fire weather concerns. Regional elevated conditions will be possible each day, and are most likely to occur over the weekend across parts of AZ into the southern Great Basin as a weak mid-level disturbance impinges on the western fringe of the heat dome/upper ridge. However, confidence in critical conditions remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains... A gradual transition to an upslope flow regime is anticipated beginning later this week across the southern to central High Plains. A combination of terrain heating/orographic ascent and modest, but sufficient, low to mid-level moisture should promote isolated thunderstorm chances each day from southern NM to southern CO. Forecast PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inches and a weak QPF signal in ensemble guidance suggest a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is probable, but with dry fuels already in place, the potential for lightning-initiated fire starts should increase through the weekend. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Pacific Northwest... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is also possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest over the weekend as weak mid-level waves propagate into the region on the northwest fringe of the upper ridge. An influx of Pacific moisture with PWAT values above 0.75 inches should favor wet thunderstorms, but fast storm motions may limit overall precipitation amounts. While this potential is noted based on recent global guidance, such mesoscale details remain nebulous at this range. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Confidence in widespread, robust fire weather concerns remains limited through the extended period, though regional concerns will likely emerge by late week through the upcoming weekend. ...D5/Friday to D7/Sunday - Southwest to southern Great Basin... Long-range ensemble guidance has maintained reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper ridge over the western CONUS through the end of the work week. As this occurs, unseasonably warm temperatures will overspread the Southwest, which should promote widespread drying/curing of fuels along with low relative humidity. While the fire environment will steadily improve in regards to moisture and fuel status, weak low to mid-level winds under the upper ridge should generally limit fire weather concerns. Regional elevated conditions will be possible each day, and are most likely to occur over the weekend across parts of AZ into the southern Great Basin as a weak mid-level disturbance impinges on the western fringe of the heat dome/upper ridge. However, confidence in critical conditions remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains... A gradual transition to an upslope flow regime is anticipated beginning later this week across the southern to central High Plains. A combination of terrain heating/orographic ascent and modest, but sufficient, low to mid-level moisture should promote isolated thunderstorm chances each day from southern NM to southern CO. Forecast PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inches and a weak QPF signal in ensemble guidance suggest a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is probable, but with dry fuels already in place, the potential for lightning-initiated fire starts should increase through the weekend. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Pacific Northwest... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is also possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest over the weekend as weak mid-level waves propagate into the region on the northwest fringe of the upper ridge. An influx of Pacific moisture with PWAT values above 0.75 inches should favor wet thunderstorms, but fast storm motions may limit overall precipitation amounts. While this potential is noted based on recent global guidance, such mesoscale details remain nebulous at this range. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Confidence in widespread, robust fire weather concerns remains limited through the extended period, though regional concerns will likely emerge by late week through the upcoming weekend. ...D5/Friday to D7/Sunday - Southwest to southern Great Basin... Long-range ensemble guidance has maintained reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper ridge over the western CONUS through the end of the work week. As this occurs, unseasonably warm temperatures will overspread the Southwest, which should promote widespread drying/curing of fuels along with low relative humidity. While the fire environment will steadily improve in regards to moisture and fuel status, weak low to mid-level winds under the upper ridge should generally limit fire weather concerns. Regional elevated conditions will be possible each day, and are most likely to occur over the weekend across parts of AZ into the southern Great Basin as a weak mid-level disturbance impinges on the western fringe of the heat dome/upper ridge. However, confidence in critical conditions remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains... A gradual transition to an upslope flow regime is anticipated beginning later this week across the southern to central High Plains. A combination of terrain heating/orographic ascent and modest, but sufficient, low to mid-level moisture should promote isolated thunderstorm chances each day from southern NM to southern CO. Forecast PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inches and a weak QPF signal in ensemble guidance suggest a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is probable, but with dry fuels already in place, the potential for lightning-initiated fire starts should increase through the weekend. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Pacific Northwest... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is also possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest over the weekend as weak mid-level waves propagate into the region on the northwest fringe of the upper ridge. An influx of Pacific moisture with PWAT values above 0.75 inches should favor wet thunderstorms, but fast storm motions may limit overall precipitation amounts. While this potential is noted based on recent global guidance, such mesoscale details remain nebulous at this range. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Confidence in widespread, robust fire weather concerns remains limited through the extended period, though regional concerns will likely emerge by late week through the upcoming weekend. ...D5/Friday to D7/Sunday - Southwest to southern Great Basin... Long-range ensemble guidance has maintained reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper ridge over the western CONUS through the end of the work week. As this occurs, unseasonably warm temperatures will overspread the Southwest, which should promote widespread drying/curing of fuels along with low relative humidity. While the fire environment will steadily improve in regards to moisture and fuel status, weak low to mid-level winds under the upper ridge should generally limit fire weather concerns. Regional elevated conditions will be possible each day, and are most likely to occur over the weekend across parts of AZ into the southern Great Basin as a weak mid-level disturbance impinges on the western fringe of the heat dome/upper ridge. However, confidence in critical conditions remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains... A gradual transition to an upslope flow regime is anticipated beginning later this week across the southern to central High Plains. A combination of terrain heating/orographic ascent and modest, but sufficient, low to mid-level moisture should promote isolated thunderstorm chances each day from southern NM to southern CO. Forecast PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inches and a weak QPF signal in ensemble guidance suggest a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is probable, but with dry fuels already in place, the potential for lightning-initiated fire starts should increase through the weekend. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Pacific Northwest... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is also possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest over the weekend as weak mid-level waves propagate into the region on the northwest fringe of the upper ridge. An influx of Pacific moisture with PWAT values above 0.75 inches should favor wet thunderstorms, but fast storm motions may limit overall precipitation amounts. While this potential is noted based on recent global guidance, such mesoscale details remain nebulous at this range. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Confidence in widespread, robust fire weather concerns remains limited through the extended period, though regional concerns will likely emerge by late week through the upcoming weekend. ...D5/Friday to D7/Sunday - Southwest to southern Great Basin... Long-range ensemble guidance has maintained reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper ridge over the western CONUS through the end of the work week. As this occurs, unseasonably warm temperatures will overspread the Southwest, which should promote widespread drying/curing of fuels along with low relative humidity. While the fire environment will steadily improve in regards to moisture and fuel status, weak low to mid-level winds under the upper ridge should generally limit fire weather concerns. Regional elevated conditions will be possible each day, and are most likely to occur over the weekend across parts of AZ into the southern Great Basin as a weak mid-level disturbance impinges on the western fringe of the heat dome/upper ridge. However, confidence in critical conditions remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains... A gradual transition to an upslope flow regime is anticipated beginning later this week across the southern to central High Plains. A combination of terrain heating/orographic ascent and modest, but sufficient, low to mid-level moisture should promote isolated thunderstorm chances each day from southern NM to southern CO. Forecast PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inches and a weak QPF signal in ensemble guidance suggest a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is probable, but with dry fuels already in place, the potential for lightning-initiated fire starts should increase through the weekend. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Pacific Northwest... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is also possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest over the weekend as weak mid-level waves propagate into the region on the northwest fringe of the upper ridge. An influx of Pacific moisture with PWAT values above 0.75 inches should favor wet thunderstorms, but fast storm motions may limit overall precipitation amounts. While this potential is noted based on recent global guidance, such mesoscale details remain nebulous at this range. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Confidence in widespread, robust fire weather concerns remains limited through the extended period, though regional concerns will likely emerge by late week through the upcoming weekend. ...D5/Friday to D7/Sunday - Southwest to southern Great Basin... Long-range ensemble guidance has maintained reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper ridge over the western CONUS through the end of the work week. As this occurs, unseasonably warm temperatures will overspread the Southwest, which should promote widespread drying/curing of fuels along with low relative humidity. While the fire environment will steadily improve in regards to moisture and fuel status, weak low to mid-level winds under the upper ridge should generally limit fire weather concerns. Regional elevated conditions will be possible each day, and are most likely to occur over the weekend across parts of AZ into the southern Great Basin as a weak mid-level disturbance impinges on the western fringe of the heat dome/upper ridge. However, confidence in critical conditions remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains... A gradual transition to an upslope flow regime is anticipated beginning later this week across the southern to central High Plains. A combination of terrain heating/orographic ascent and modest, but sufficient, low to mid-level moisture should promote isolated thunderstorm chances each day from southern NM to southern CO. Forecast PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inches and a weak QPF signal in ensemble guidance suggest a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is probable, but with dry fuels already in place, the potential for lightning-initiated fire starts should increase through the weekend. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Pacific Northwest... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is also possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest over the weekend as weak mid-level waves propagate into the region on the northwest fringe of the upper ridge. An influx of Pacific moisture with PWAT values above 0.75 inches should favor wet thunderstorms, but fast storm motions may limit overall precipitation amounts. While this potential is noted based on recent global guidance, such mesoscale details remain nebulous at this range. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Confidence in widespread, robust fire weather concerns remains limited through the extended period, though regional concerns will likely emerge by late week through the upcoming weekend. ...D5/Friday to D7/Sunday - Southwest to southern Great Basin... Long-range ensemble guidance has maintained reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper ridge over the western CONUS through the end of the work week. As this occurs, unseasonably warm temperatures will overspread the Southwest, which should promote widespread drying/curing of fuels along with low relative humidity. While the fire environment will steadily improve in regards to moisture and fuel status, weak low to mid-level winds under the upper ridge should generally limit fire weather concerns. Regional elevated conditions will be possible each day, and are most likely to occur over the weekend across parts of AZ into the southern Great Basin as a weak mid-level disturbance impinges on the western fringe of the heat dome/upper ridge. However, confidence in critical conditions remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains... A gradual transition to an upslope flow regime is anticipated beginning later this week across the southern to central High Plains. A combination of terrain heating/orographic ascent and modest, but sufficient, low to mid-level moisture should promote isolated thunderstorm chances each day from southern NM to southern CO. Forecast PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inches and a weak QPF signal in ensemble guidance suggest a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is probable, but with dry fuels already in place, the potential for lightning-initiated fire starts should increase through the weekend. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Pacific Northwest... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is also possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest over the weekend as weak mid-level waves propagate into the region on the northwest fringe of the upper ridge. An influx of Pacific moisture with PWAT values above 0.75 inches should favor wet thunderstorms, but fast storm motions may limit overall precipitation amounts. While this potential is noted based on recent global guidance, such mesoscale details remain nebulous at this range. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Confidence in widespread, robust fire weather concerns remains limited through the extended period, though regional concerns will likely emerge by late week through the upcoming weekend. ...D5/Friday to D7/Sunday - Southwest to southern Great Basin... Long-range ensemble guidance has maintained reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper ridge over the western CONUS through the end of the work week. As this occurs, unseasonably warm temperatures will overspread the Southwest, which should promote widespread drying/curing of fuels along with low relative humidity. While the fire environment will steadily improve in regards to moisture and fuel status, weak low to mid-level winds under the upper ridge should generally limit fire weather concerns. Regional elevated conditions will be possible each day, and are most likely to occur over the weekend across parts of AZ into the southern Great Basin as a weak mid-level disturbance impinges on the western fringe of the heat dome/upper ridge. However, confidence in critical conditions remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains... A gradual transition to an upslope flow regime is anticipated beginning later this week across the southern to central High Plains. A combination of terrain heating/orographic ascent and modest, but sufficient, low to mid-level moisture should promote isolated thunderstorm chances each day from southern NM to southern CO. Forecast PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inches and a weak QPF signal in ensemble guidance suggest a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is probable, but with dry fuels already in place, the potential for lightning-initiated fire starts should increase through the weekend. ...D4/Thursday to D7/Sunday - Pacific Northwest... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is also possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest over the weekend as weak mid-level waves propagate into the region on the northwest fringe of the upper ridge. An influx of Pacific moisture with PWAT values above 0.75 inches should favor wet thunderstorms, but fast storm motions may limit overall precipitation amounts. While this potential is noted based on recent global guidance, such mesoscale details remain nebulous at this range. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1150 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS....WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS....NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1150 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Oklahoma...northeastern Texas....west central and southwestern Arkansas....northwestern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031756Z - 032030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The evolution of an ongoing eastward/southeastward moving cluster of storms remains uncertain in the near term, but thunderstorm development with increasing risk for severe hail and wind is possible through 2-4 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...An initial intensification of thunderstorm development across the Muskogee OK vicinity appeared focused near an area of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection (around 700 mb), but has become better sustained southward along strengthening convective outflow into areas to the east of McAlester. This activity is embedded within modest (20-30) westerly deep-layer mean flow, but downward mixing of northwesterly rear inflow is contributing to southeastward propagation of the cold pool toward the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, where stronger boundary-destabilization is currently focused. Northeast of De Queen AR into the Russellville AR vicinity the environment is still in the process of recovering from prior convection, while warming elevated mixed-layer air continues to advect northeastward into/across the Red River Valley and Ark-La-Tex vicinity. So, subsequent evolution of convection remains uncertain. However, a corridor of continuing intensifying thunderstorm development appears possible along the northeastern periphery of the more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air into the peak heating hours. If this occurs, it would likely be accompanied by increasing potential for strong to severe surface gusts in the presence of moderate to strong shear (largely due to veering winds with height) and strong convective instability. Discrete storm development near/just ahead of the southeastward advancing cold pool also appears possible, and would probably be accompanied by a risk for large hail as well. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34139628 34439532 34809463 35379376 35059296 33219356 32749489 33309609 34139628 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND ACROSS PARTS OF WI/IL/IA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains through evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas this evening into early tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes have been made to severe probabilities with the 20z outlook update. See MCDs 1150, 1151, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385, for short term severe storm info across the ArkLaTex and WI/IL. Elsewhere, cumulus is deepening across the eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK/western north TX in the vicinity of an outflow boundary. Strong heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F and dewpoints recovering into the low 70s F is resulting in an axis of strong to extreme instability. Backed low-level flow near the boundary is enhancing low-level shear, and the KFDR VWP is showing large low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH near 200 m2/s2. While large-scale ascent is weak, low-level convergence and strong instability should be sufficient for a storm or two. While expected limited storm coverage precludes higher probabilities, significant severe and a strong tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND ACROSS PARTS OF WI/IL/IA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains through evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas this evening into early tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes have been made to severe probabilities with the 20z outlook update. See MCDs 1150, 1151, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385, for short term severe storm info across the ArkLaTex and WI/IL. Elsewhere, cumulus is deepening across the eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK/western north TX in the vicinity of an outflow boundary. Strong heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F and dewpoints recovering into the low 70s F is resulting in an axis of strong to extreme instability. Backed low-level flow near the boundary is enhancing low-level shear, and the KFDR VWP is showing large low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH near 200 m2/s2. While large-scale ascent is weak, low-level convergence and strong instability should be sufficient for a storm or two. While expected limited storm coverage precludes higher probabilities, significant severe and a strong tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND ACROSS PARTS OF WI/IL/IA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains through evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas this evening into early tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes have been made to severe probabilities with the 20z outlook update. See MCDs 1150, 1151, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385, for short term severe storm info across the ArkLaTex and WI/IL. Elsewhere, cumulus is deepening across the eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK/western north TX in the vicinity of an outflow boundary. Strong heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F and dewpoints recovering into the low 70s F is resulting in an axis of strong to extreme instability. Backed low-level flow near the boundary is enhancing low-level shear, and the KFDR VWP is showing large low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH near 200 m2/s2. While large-scale ascent is weak, low-level convergence and strong instability should be sufficient for a storm or two. While expected limited storm coverage precludes higher probabilities, significant severe and a strong tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND ACROSS PARTS OF WI/IL/IA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains through evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas this evening into early tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes have been made to severe probabilities with the 20z outlook update. See MCDs 1150, 1151, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385, for short term severe storm info across the ArkLaTex and WI/IL. Elsewhere, cumulus is deepening across the eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK/western north TX in the vicinity of an outflow boundary. Strong heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F and dewpoints recovering into the low 70s F is resulting in an axis of strong to extreme instability. Backed low-level flow near the boundary is enhancing low-level shear, and the KFDR VWP is showing large low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH near 200 m2/s2. While large-scale ascent is weak, low-level convergence and strong instability should be sufficient for a storm or two. While expected limited storm coverage precludes higher probabilities, significant severe and a strong tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND ACROSS PARTS OF WI/IL/IA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains through evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas this evening into early tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes have been made to severe probabilities with the 20z outlook update. See MCDs 1150, 1151, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385, for short term severe storm info across the ArkLaTex and WI/IL. Elsewhere, cumulus is deepening across the eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK/western north TX in the vicinity of an outflow boundary. Strong heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F and dewpoints recovering into the low 70s F is resulting in an axis of strong to extreme instability. Backed low-level flow near the boundary is enhancing low-level shear, and the KFDR VWP is showing large low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH near 200 m2/s2. While large-scale ascent is weak, low-level convergence and strong instability should be sufficient for a storm or two. While expected limited storm coverage precludes higher probabilities, significant severe and a strong tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND ACROSS PARTS OF WI/IL/IA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains through evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas this evening into early tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes have been made to severe probabilities with the 20z outlook update. See MCDs 1150, 1151, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385, for short term severe storm info across the ArkLaTex and WI/IL. Elsewhere, cumulus is deepening across the eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK/western north TX in the vicinity of an outflow boundary. Strong heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F and dewpoints recovering into the low 70s F is resulting in an axis of strong to extreme instability. Backed low-level flow near the boundary is enhancing low-level shear, and the KFDR VWP is showing large low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH near 200 m2/s2. While large-scale ascent is weak, low-level convergence and strong instability should be sufficient for a storm or two. While expected limited storm coverage precludes higher probabilities, significant severe and a strong tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND ACROSS PARTS OF WI/IL/IA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains through evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas this evening into early tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes have been made to severe probabilities with the 20z outlook update. See MCDs 1150, 1151, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385, for short term severe storm info across the ArkLaTex and WI/IL. Elsewhere, cumulus is deepening across the eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK/western north TX in the vicinity of an outflow boundary. Strong heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F and dewpoints recovering into the low 70s F is resulting in an axis of strong to extreme instability. Backed low-level flow near the boundary is enhancing low-level shear, and the KFDR VWP is showing large low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH near 200 m2/s2. While large-scale ascent is weak, low-level convergence and strong instability should be sufficient for a storm or two. While expected limited storm coverage precludes higher probabilities, significant severe and a strong tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND ACROSS PARTS OF WI/IL/IA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains through evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas this evening into early tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes have been made to severe probabilities with the 20z outlook update. See MCDs 1150, 1151, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385, for short term severe storm info across the ArkLaTex and WI/IL. Elsewhere, cumulus is deepening across the eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK/western north TX in the vicinity of an outflow boundary. Strong heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F and dewpoints recovering into the low 70s F is resulting in an axis of strong to extreme instability. Backed low-level flow near the boundary is enhancing low-level shear, and the KFDR VWP is showing large low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH near 200 m2/s2. While large-scale ascent is weak, low-level convergence and strong instability should be sufficient for a storm or two. While expected limited storm coverage precludes higher probabilities, significant severe and a strong tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND ACROSS PARTS OF WI/IL/IA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains through evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas this evening into early tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes have been made to severe probabilities with the 20z outlook update. See MCDs 1150, 1151, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385, for short term severe storm info across the ArkLaTex and WI/IL. Elsewhere, cumulus is deepening across the eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK/western north TX in the vicinity of an outflow boundary. Strong heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F and dewpoints recovering into the low 70s F is resulting in an axis of strong to extreme instability. Backed low-level flow near the boundary is enhancing low-level shear, and the KFDR VWP is showing large low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH near 200 m2/s2. While large-scale ascent is weak, low-level convergence and strong instability should be sufficient for a storm or two. While expected limited storm coverage precludes higher probabilities, significant severe and a strong tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. Read more