Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND INTO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... A line of thunderstorms will continue to pose primarily a damaging wind threat across east Texas into the ArkLaMiss late this evening. Additional elevated thunderstorms may develop tonight from central to southern/southeast Oklahoma with a threat for large hail. ...Wisconsin/Northern Illinois... A cluster of storms produced occasional wind damage from northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. However, radar trends over the past hour indicate these storms have gusted out as they moved into lesser instability. Therefore, an isolated wind gust is possible this evening, but the greater threat has mostly ended. ...Dakotas... A few stronger cells have developed across northern South Dakota which necessitated southward expansion of the marginal. Otherwise, the remainder of the marginal risk remains with some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with the secondary line of storms associated with the primary mid-level shortwave trough, moving across eastern Montana, toward increasing instability. ...Central to Southeast Oklahoma... Several runs of the HRRR have shown widespread elevated thunderstorm development between 03Z and 06Z from central Oklahoma and into southeast Oklahoma as the low-level jet strengthens tonight. The 00Z OUN RAOB shows 3000+ MUCAPE with deep moisture to near 725mb. The warm temperatures near 700mb cast some doubt on storm coverage, but the isentropic ascent may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. If storms do occur, large hail (potentially 2+ inches) will be possible given around 40 knots of effective shear, steep lapse rates, and strong to extreme instability. ...East Texas into the ArkLaMiss... A well-established line of thunderstorms continues across east Texas, northern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas. The airmass ahead remains quite unstable (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) which may maintain the severe wind threat for a few hours before it weakens due to boundary layer cooling and increasing mid-level temperatures with southward extent. A small region of greater tornado threat may be present for the next 1 to 2 hours east of DFW where transient low-level rotation has been evident. The FWS VWP shows favorable low-level shear, but storms are expected to weaken within the next few hours. ..Bentley.. 06/04/2024 Read more

WW 0387 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 387 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-077-107-040140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LEE PHILLIPS LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-040140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL MSC011-015-027-043-051-053-055-083-107-119-125-133-135-137-143- 149-151-161-163-040140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR CARROLL COAHOMA Read more

WW 0387 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 387 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-077-107-040140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LEE PHILLIPS LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-040140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL MSC011-015-027-043-051-053-055-083-107-119-125-133-135-137-143- 149-151-161-163-040140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR CARROLL COAHOMA Read more

WW 0386 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 386 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 386 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-045-055-057-065-129-141-040140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM ELLIS GREER HARMON JACKSON ROGER MILLS TILLMAN TXC009-023-075-087-101-129-155-179-191-197-211-275-295-357-393- 483-485-487-040140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE DONLEY FOARD GRAY HALL HARDEMAN HEMPHILL KNOX LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS WHEELER WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0386 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 386 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 386 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-045-055-057-065-129-141-040140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM ELLIS GREER HARMON JACKSON ROGER MILLS TILLMAN TXC009-023-075-087-101-129-155-179-191-197-211-275-295-357-393- 483-485-487-040140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE DONLEY FOARD GRAY HALL HARDEMAN HEMPHILL KNOX LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS WHEELER WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0386 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 386 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 386 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-045-055-057-065-129-141-040140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM ELLIS GREER HARMON JACKSON ROGER MILLS TILLMAN TXC009-023-075-087-101-129-155-179-191-197-211-275-295-357-393- 483-485-487-040140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE DONLEY FOARD GRAY HALL HARDEMAN HEMPHILL KNOX LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS WHEELER WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0386 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 386 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 386 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-045-055-057-065-129-141-040140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM ELLIS GREER HARMON JACKSON ROGER MILLS TILLMAN TXC009-023-075-087-101-129-155-179-191-197-211-275-295-357-393- 483-485-487-040140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE DONLEY FOARD GRAY HALL HARDEMAN HEMPHILL KNOX LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS WHEELER WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0386 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 386 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 386 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-045-055-057-065-129-141-040140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM ELLIS GREER HARMON JACKSON ROGER MILLS TILLMAN TXC009-023-075-087-101-129-155-179-191-197-211-275-295-357-393- 483-485-487-040140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE DONLEY FOARD GRAY HALL HARDEMAN HEMPHILL KNOX LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS WHEELER WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0386 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 386 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 386 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-045-055-057-065-129-141-040140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM ELLIS GREER HARMON JACKSON ROGER MILLS TILLMAN TXC009-023-075-087-101-129-155-179-191-197-211-275-295-357-393- 483-485-487-040140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE DONLEY FOARD GRAY HALL HARDEMAN HEMPHILL KNOX LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS WHEELER WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 386 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 032145Z - 040400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 386 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma Northwest Texas and the Eastern Panhandle * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated intense supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. An tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 140 miles north northwest of Altus OK to 85 miles south of Altus OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 385... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0385 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CRS TO 35 ENE SHV TO 10 NNW MLU. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-015-017-021-031-043-049-059-081-085-119-127-040340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE RED RIVER SABINE WEBSTER WINN TXC005-073-203-315-347-365-401-403-405-419-040340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA CHEROKEE HARRISON MARION NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0385 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CRS TO 35 ENE SHV TO 10 NNW MLU. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-015-017-021-031-043-049-059-081-085-119-127-040340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE RED RIVER SABINE WEBSTER WINN TXC005-073-203-315-347-365-401-403-405-419-040340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA CHEROKEE HARRISON MARION NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0385 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CRS TO 35 ENE SHV TO 10 NNW MLU. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-015-017-021-031-043-049-059-081-085-119-127-040340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE RED RIVER SABINE WEBSTER WINN TXC005-073-203-315-347-365-401-403-405-419-040340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA CHEROKEE HARRISON MARION NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0385 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW GGG TO 35 W ELD TO 25 NNE ELD TO 20 NNW PBF. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-025-027-139-040040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND COLUMBIA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-061-081-111-119-040040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO LINCOLN RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER TXC183-203-315-365-401-423-459-040040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREGG HARRISON MARION Read more

WW 0385 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW GGG TO 35 W ELD TO 25 NNE ELD TO 20 NNW PBF. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-025-027-139-040040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND COLUMBIA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-061-081-111-119-040040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO LINCOLN RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER TXC183-203-315-365-401-423-459-040040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREGG HARRISON MARION Read more

WW 385 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 031835Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 385 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and Southern Arkansas Northern Louisiana Far Southeast Oklahoma Far Northeast Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A squall line will likely continue east-southeast across the Watch area through the afternoon into the early evening. Strong to severe gusts (50-70 mph) will be capable of wind damage with the more intense downdrafts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of De Queen AR to 35 miles east of El Dorado AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0385 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW GGG TO 35 W ELD TO 25 NNE ELD TO 20 NNW PBF. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-025-027-139-040040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND COLUMBIA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-061-081-111-119-040040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO LINCOLN RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER TXC183-203-315-365-401-423-459-040040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREGG HARRISON MARION Read more

WW 385 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 031835Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 385 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and Southern Arkansas Northern Louisiana Far Southeast Oklahoma Far Northeast Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A squall line will likely continue east-southeast across the Watch area through the afternoon into the early evening. Strong to severe gusts (50-70 mph) will be capable of wind damage with the more intense downdrafts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of De Queen AR to 35 miles east of El Dorado AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1155 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 385... FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1155 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Northern Louisiana...Southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385... Valid 032336Z - 040130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage and hail threat will be possible with the stronger cells embedded in and ahead of a line segment from northeast Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Additional weather watch issuance remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a linear MCS that is moving southeast at about 35 knots across the Ark-La-Tex. A pocket of strong instability is present ahead of the line, where surface dewpoints are in the 70s F and MLCAPE is estimated in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. The instability, along with strong large-scale ascent associated with a vorticity maxima and low-level convergence, will support the linear MCS for several more hours as it moves southeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The WSR-88D VWP at Shreveport has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with directional shear in the lowest 2 km. This environment will continue to support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger segments along the leading edge of the line. Cells that form ahead of the line could also have a hail threat. ..Broyles.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 33119387 33739272 33879224 33809177 33489146 32799154 32139208 31779282 31499389 31579517 31909611 32279651 32859657 33129616 33009513 33119387 Read more

MD 1154 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1154 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...Far eastern MT and western ND Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032209Z - 040015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected this afternoon and continuing into the evening. A few damaging gusts and isolated hail are possible. A Watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 22 UTC, regional radar analysis showed isolated thunderstorms had initiated on the eastern edge of a persistent cloud shield near the MT/ND border. Strong diurnal heating has allowed surface temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s F. While surface moisture has mixed somewhat, low 50s F surface dewpoints and weak upslope flow are contributing to weak destabilization. These storms, and additional development may continue eastward into western ND with a risk for damaging winds given the relatively high cloud bases. While buoyancy is modest (~500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) occasional hail will be possible with the stronger updrafts. Given the somewhat limited buoyancy and uncertainty on storm coverage, a WW appears unlikely this evening. ..Lyons/Hart.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 48070503 48770475 49030383 49050203 49030127 48680100 48240084 47750082 47020108 46570148 46380200 46120322 46090367 46120395 46400439 48070503 Read more