Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is currently low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday, before progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. Northern/eastern portion of this boundary is expected progress eastward off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast while the southern/western portion only makes modest southerly progression across the Southeast and TX. Much of the better low-level moisture and greater buoyancy will exist from the Southeast into TX, displaced south/west of the stronger mid-level flow and greater vertical shear. This will likely limit the organized thunderstorm potential, with a mostly pulse/multicellular storm mode anticipated. A few damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms along the front farther north/east across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic, but limited buoyancy should keep coverage low. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more