Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas. Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH, precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the 30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas. Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH, precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the 30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas. Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH, precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the 30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas. Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH, precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the 30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas. Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH, precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the 30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas. Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH, precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the 30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas. Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH, precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the 30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO OK...THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS...IA AND MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe storms with wind damage and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening from the middle Missouri Valley to the upper Mississippi Valley. An ongoing storm cluster near the Arklatex could persist through the day with some damaging-wind threat, and storms will be capable of producing isolated very large hail and severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph this evening into tonight across Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Another in a series of overnight MCSs is moving southeastward near the Arklatex, though the bowing system appears to have weakened prior to sunrise. The MCS is moving into an area overturned yesterday across LA/AR, with the primary moisture/buoyancy feed into the MCS from the south-southwest from the unstable warm sector in TX. There will still be some potential for eventual intensification of the storms as the low levels warm and moisten during the day, and the stronger embedded storms could produce damaging winds. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary, though the outflow is already somewhat diffuse with west/northwestward extent. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK during the day. There will be the potential for isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon along the west edge of the richer moisture (near the western OK/TX border) where MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/coverage are both in question. If storms form, there will be just enough vertical shear for supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado. Confidence is greater in renewed thunderstorm development across KS this afternoon and into OK late this evening into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO OK...THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS...IA AND MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe storms with wind damage and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening from the middle Missouri Valley to the upper Mississippi Valley. An ongoing storm cluster near the Arklatex could persist through the day with some damaging-wind threat, and storms will be capable of producing isolated very large hail and severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph this evening into tonight across Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Another in a series of overnight MCSs is moving southeastward near the Arklatex, though the bowing system appears to have weakened prior to sunrise. The MCS is moving into an area overturned yesterday across LA/AR, with the primary moisture/buoyancy feed into the MCS from the south-southwest from the unstable warm sector in TX. There will still be some potential for eventual intensification of the storms as the low levels warm and moisten during the day, and the stronger embedded storms could produce damaging winds. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary, though the outflow is already somewhat diffuse with west/northwestward extent. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK during the day. There will be the potential for isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon along the west edge of the richer moisture (near the western OK/TX border) where MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/coverage are both in question. If storms form, there will be just enough vertical shear for supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado. Confidence is greater in renewed thunderstorm development across KS this afternoon and into OK late this evening into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO OK...THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS...IA AND MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe storms with wind damage and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening from the middle Missouri Valley to the upper Mississippi Valley. An ongoing storm cluster near the Arklatex could persist through the day with some damaging-wind threat, and storms will be capable of producing isolated very large hail and severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph this evening into tonight across Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Another in a series of overnight MCSs is moving southeastward near the Arklatex, though the bowing system appears to have weakened prior to sunrise. The MCS is moving into an area overturned yesterday across LA/AR, with the primary moisture/buoyancy feed into the MCS from the south-southwest from the unstable warm sector in TX. There will still be some potential for eventual intensification of the storms as the low levels warm and moisten during the day, and the stronger embedded storms could produce damaging winds. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary, though the outflow is already somewhat diffuse with west/northwestward extent. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK during the day. There will be the potential for isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon along the west edge of the richer moisture (near the western OK/TX border) where MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/coverage are both in question. If storms form, there will be just enough vertical shear for supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado. Confidence is greater in renewed thunderstorm development across KS this afternoon and into OK late this evening into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO OK...THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS...IA AND MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe storms with wind damage and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening from the middle Missouri Valley to the upper Mississippi Valley. An ongoing storm cluster near the Arklatex could persist through the day with some damaging-wind threat, and storms will be capable of producing isolated very large hail and severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph this evening into tonight across Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Another in a series of overnight MCSs is moving southeastward near the Arklatex, though the bowing system appears to have weakened prior to sunrise. The MCS is moving into an area overturned yesterday across LA/AR, with the primary moisture/buoyancy feed into the MCS from the south-southwest from the unstable warm sector in TX. There will still be some potential for eventual intensification of the storms as the low levels warm and moisten during the day, and the stronger embedded storms could produce damaging winds. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary, though the outflow is already somewhat diffuse with west/northwestward extent. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK during the day. There will be the potential for isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon along the west edge of the richer moisture (near the western OK/TX border) where MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/coverage are both in question. If storms form, there will be just enough vertical shear for supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado. Confidence is greater in renewed thunderstorm development across KS this afternoon and into OK late this evening into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO OK...THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS...IA AND MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe storms with wind damage and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening from the middle Missouri Valley to the upper Mississippi Valley. An ongoing storm cluster near the Arklatex could persist through the day with some damaging-wind threat, and storms will be capable of producing isolated very large hail and severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph this evening into tonight across Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Another in a series of overnight MCSs is moving southeastward near the Arklatex, though the bowing system appears to have weakened prior to sunrise. The MCS is moving into an area overturned yesterday across LA/AR, with the primary moisture/buoyancy feed into the MCS from the south-southwest from the unstable warm sector in TX. There will still be some potential for eventual intensification of the storms as the low levels warm and moisten during the day, and the stronger embedded storms could produce damaging winds. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary, though the outflow is already somewhat diffuse with west/northwestward extent. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK during the day. There will be the potential for isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon along the west edge of the richer moisture (near the western OK/TX border) where MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/coverage are both in question. If storms form, there will be just enough vertical shear for supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado. Confidence is greater in renewed thunderstorm development across KS this afternoon and into OK late this evening into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO OK...THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS...IA AND MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe storms with wind damage and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening from the middle Missouri Valley to the upper Mississippi Valley. An ongoing storm cluster near the Arklatex could persist through the day with some damaging-wind threat, and storms will be capable of producing isolated very large hail and severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph this evening into tonight across Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Another in a series of overnight MCSs is moving southeastward near the Arklatex, though the bowing system appears to have weakened prior to sunrise. The MCS is moving into an area overturned yesterday across LA/AR, with the primary moisture/buoyancy feed into the MCS from the south-southwest from the unstable warm sector in TX. There will still be some potential for eventual intensification of the storms as the low levels warm and moisten during the day, and the stronger embedded storms could produce damaging winds. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary, though the outflow is already somewhat diffuse with west/northwestward extent. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK during the day. There will be the potential for isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon along the west edge of the richer moisture (near the western OK/TX border) where MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/coverage are both in question. If storms form, there will be just enough vertical shear for supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado. Confidence is greater in renewed thunderstorm development across KS this afternoon and into OK late this evening into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO OK...THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS...IA AND MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe storms with wind damage and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening from the middle Missouri Valley to the upper Mississippi Valley. An ongoing storm cluster near the Arklatex could persist through the day with some damaging-wind threat, and storms will be capable of producing isolated very large hail and severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph this evening into tonight across Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Another in a series of overnight MCSs is moving southeastward near the Arklatex, though the bowing system appears to have weakened prior to sunrise. The MCS is moving into an area overturned yesterday across LA/AR, with the primary moisture/buoyancy feed into the MCS from the south-southwest from the unstable warm sector in TX. There will still be some potential for eventual intensification of the storms as the low levels warm and moisten during the day, and the stronger embedded storms could produce damaging winds. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary, though the outflow is already somewhat diffuse with west/northwestward extent. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK during the day. There will be the potential for isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon along the west edge of the richer moisture (near the western OK/TX border) where MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/coverage are both in question. If storms form, there will be just enough vertical shear for supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado. Confidence is greater in renewed thunderstorm development across KS this afternoon and into OK late this evening into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/04/2024 Read more

MD 1160 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388... FOR SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...AND FAR SOUTHWEST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Areas affected...Southeast OK...northeast TX...and far southwest AR Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388... Valid 040849Z - 041015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe wind gusts remain possible with a short linear cluster moving southeast in southeast Oklahoma. Spatiotemporal uncertainty exists regarding this threat downstream for an additional severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...A short linear cluster has surged southeastward into southeast OK as advertised by the consensus of 00Z CAM guidance. Despite riding along the MLCAPE gradient with a feed of ample buoyancy amid a 50-kt southwesterly low-level jet per FWS/SRX VWP data, measured surface wind gusts have held in the 35-55 mph range across several OK-Mesonet and ASOS/AWOS sites. Indeed, the surface cold pool has been relatively weak at 4-6 F of cooling in the wake of the cluster. Still, an embedded swath or two of lower-end severe gusts may occur, especially near the apex of the cluster across the rest of southeast OK. Confidence is lower on the degree of wind damage threat into northeast TX given overall cloud top warming and lack of stronger winds measured in OK thus far. At least a localized damaging wind threat should exist outside of WW 388 through sunrise. ..Grams/Thompson.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35089581 34759481 34089415 33499390 32919414 32829458 32979568 33059624 33589679 34149687 34519679 35089581 Read more

WW 0388 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 388 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW MLC TO 20 N MLC TO 5 NW RKR. WW 388 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 041000Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160. ..GRAMS..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-023-069-077-079-095-121-127-041000- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE MARSHALL PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 388 SEVERE TSTM OK 040315Z - 041000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 388 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1015 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form and track across the watch area through the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary threat, although damaging winds may also become a concern later tonight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Chickasha OK to 65 miles east of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 387... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a mature cyclone and associated troughing will cover much of the northeast CONUS through the weekend. At the same time, ridging will build over the western CONUS. This amplified trough/ridge pattern will likely remain in place until at least D6/Sunday, but guidance has struggled to converge on a solution from D6/Sunday through D8/Tuesday, with the guidance showing notable run-to-run variability. General expectation is for low-level moisture advection to result in moderate to strong buoyancy over the central and southern High Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across appears possible. Forecast confidence decreases after D5/Saturday, with the variability within the guidance resulting in limited predictability. There is some chance the pattern remains fairly stagnant, with additional days of afternoon southern/central High Plains storms possible. However, the 00Z guidance suite has trended towards the progression of a strong front across the central and eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, with thunderstorms possible along the front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a mature cyclone and associated troughing will cover much of the northeast CONUS through the weekend. At the same time, ridging will build over the western CONUS. This amplified trough/ridge pattern will likely remain in place until at least D6/Sunday, but guidance has struggled to converge on a solution from D6/Sunday through D8/Tuesday, with the guidance showing notable run-to-run variability. General expectation is for low-level moisture advection to result in moderate to strong buoyancy over the central and southern High Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across appears possible. Forecast confidence decreases after D5/Saturday, with the variability within the guidance resulting in limited predictability. There is some chance the pattern remains fairly stagnant, with additional days of afternoon southern/central High Plains storms possible. However, the 00Z guidance suite has trended towards the progression of a strong front across the central and eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, with thunderstorms possible along the front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a mature cyclone and associated troughing will cover much of the northeast CONUS through the weekend. At the same time, ridging will build over the western CONUS. This amplified trough/ridge pattern will likely remain in place until at least D6/Sunday, but guidance has struggled to converge on a solution from D6/Sunday through D8/Tuesday, with the guidance showing notable run-to-run variability. General expectation is for low-level moisture advection to result in moderate to strong buoyancy over the central and southern High Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across appears possible. Forecast confidence decreases after D5/Saturday, with the variability within the guidance resulting in limited predictability. There is some chance the pattern remains fairly stagnant, with additional days of afternoon southern/central High Plains storms possible. However, the 00Z guidance suite has trended towards the progression of a strong front across the central and eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, with thunderstorms possible along the front. Read more