Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a mature cyclone and associated troughing will cover much of the northeast CONUS through the weekend. At the same time, ridging will build over the western CONUS. This amplified trough/ridge pattern will likely remain in place until at least D6/Sunday, but guidance has struggled to converge on a solution from D6/Sunday through D8/Tuesday, with the guidance showing notable run-to-run variability. General expectation is for low-level moisture advection to result in moderate to strong buoyancy over the central and southern High Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across appears possible. Forecast confidence decreases after D5/Saturday, with the variability within the guidance resulting in limited predictability. There is some chance the pattern remains fairly stagnant, with additional days of afternoon southern/central High Plains storms possible. However, the 00Z guidance suite has trended towards the progression of a strong front across the central and eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, with thunderstorms possible along the front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a mature cyclone and associated troughing will cover much of the northeast CONUS through the weekend. At the same time, ridging will build over the western CONUS. This amplified trough/ridge pattern will likely remain in place until at least D6/Sunday, but guidance has struggled to converge on a solution from D6/Sunday through D8/Tuesday, with the guidance showing notable run-to-run variability. General expectation is for low-level moisture advection to result in moderate to strong buoyancy over the central and southern High Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across appears possible. Forecast confidence decreases after D5/Saturday, with the variability within the guidance resulting in limited predictability. There is some chance the pattern remains fairly stagnant, with additional days of afternoon southern/central High Plains storms possible. However, the 00Z guidance suite has trended towards the progression of a strong front across the central and eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, with thunderstorms possible along the front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a mature cyclone and associated troughing will cover much of the northeast CONUS through the weekend. At the same time, ridging will build over the western CONUS. This amplified trough/ridge pattern will likely remain in place until at least D6/Sunday, but guidance has struggled to converge on a solution from D6/Sunday through D8/Tuesday, with the guidance showing notable run-to-run variability. General expectation is for low-level moisture advection to result in moderate to strong buoyancy over the central and southern High Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across appears possible. Forecast confidence decreases after D5/Saturday, with the variability within the guidance resulting in limited predictability. There is some chance the pattern remains fairly stagnant, with additional days of afternoon southern/central High Plains storms possible. However, the 00Z guidance suite has trended towards the progression of a strong front across the central and eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, with thunderstorms possible along the front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a mature cyclone and associated troughing will cover much of the northeast CONUS through the weekend. At the same time, ridging will build over the western CONUS. This amplified trough/ridge pattern will likely remain in place until at least D6/Sunday, but guidance has struggled to converge on a solution from D6/Sunday through D8/Tuesday, with the guidance showing notable run-to-run variability. General expectation is for low-level moisture advection to result in moderate to strong buoyancy over the central and southern High Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across appears possible. Forecast confidence decreases after D5/Saturday, with the variability within the guidance resulting in limited predictability. There is some chance the pattern remains fairly stagnant, with additional days of afternoon southern/central High Plains storms possible. However, the 00Z guidance suite has trended towards the progression of a strong front across the central and eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, with thunderstorms possible along the front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a mature cyclone and associated troughing will cover much of the northeast CONUS through the weekend. At the same time, ridging will build over the western CONUS. This amplified trough/ridge pattern will likely remain in place until at least D6/Sunday, but guidance has struggled to converge on a solution from D6/Sunday through D8/Tuesday, with the guidance showing notable run-to-run variability. General expectation is for low-level moisture advection to result in moderate to strong buoyancy over the central and southern High Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across appears possible. Forecast confidence decreases after D5/Saturday, with the variability within the guidance resulting in limited predictability. There is some chance the pattern remains fairly stagnant, with additional days of afternoon southern/central High Plains storms possible. However, the 00Z guidance suite has trended towards the progression of a strong front across the central and eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, with thunderstorms possible along the front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a mature cyclone and associated troughing will cover much of the northeast CONUS through the weekend. At the same time, ridging will build over the western CONUS. This amplified trough/ridge pattern will likely remain in place until at least D6/Sunday, but guidance has struggled to converge on a solution from D6/Sunday through D8/Tuesday, with the guidance showing notable run-to-run variability. General expectation is for low-level moisture advection to result in moderate to strong buoyancy over the central and southern High Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across appears possible. Forecast confidence decreases after D5/Saturday, with the variability within the guidance resulting in limited predictability. There is some chance the pattern remains fairly stagnant, with additional days of afternoon southern/central High Plains storms possible. However, the 00Z guidance suite has trended towards the progression of a strong front across the central and eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, with thunderstorms possible along the front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a mature cyclone and associated troughing will cover much of the northeast CONUS through the weekend. At the same time, ridging will build over the western CONUS. This amplified trough/ridge pattern will likely remain in place until at least D6/Sunday, but guidance has struggled to converge on a solution from D6/Sunday through D8/Tuesday, with the guidance showing notable run-to-run variability. General expectation is for low-level moisture advection to result in moderate to strong buoyancy over the central and southern High Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across appears possible. Forecast confidence decreases after D5/Saturday, with the variability within the guidance resulting in limited predictability. There is some chance the pattern remains fairly stagnant, with additional days of afternoon southern/central High Plains storms possible. However, the 00Z guidance suite has trended towards the progression of a strong front across the central and eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, with thunderstorms possible along the front. Read more

WW 0388 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 388 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CHK TO 40 SE CQB TO 5 NW RKR. ..GRAMS..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-023-029-049-063-069-077-079-085-095-099-121-123- 127-040940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL GARVIN HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1159 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388... FOR CENTRAL OK TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Areas affected...Central OK to the Red River Valley Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388... Valid 040600Z - 040800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388 continues. SUMMARY...Initial severe hail threat will probably transition to mainly a severe wind threat in the pre-dawn hours. An additional severe thunderstorm watch and/or expansion of WW 388 to the Red River may be needed in the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have blossomed over the past hour with parcels rooted from 900-800 mb within the exit region of a mid 40s southerly low-level jet as sampled by the FWS VWP. Despite ample ML/MUCAPE emanating north from central TX to southwest OK, the increasingly predominant cluster mode coupled with weak shear above 500 mb per the TLX VWP and forecast soundings suggest that the hail threat will probably remain tempered in the 1-1.75 inch diameter range. Available 00Z NSSL-MPAS runs are consistent with a few of the 00Z HREF members in indicating upscale growth with convection accelerating southward to the Red River along and east of the I-35 corridor. As this process occurs, potential for wind gusts from 55-70 mph will increase. ..Grams/Thompson.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35169834 35259707 34959562 34639518 33859422 33519389 33279393 33169407 33219452 33169514 33369670 33589747 34469838 34939862 35169834 Read more

WW 0388 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 388 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW END TO 30 ESE CQB TO 5 N RKR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1159. ..GRAMS..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-015-017-027-029-049-051-061-063-077-079-087-099-109- 121-123-125-127-133-040840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COAL GARVIN GRADY HASKELL HUGHES LATIMER LE FLORE MCCLAIN MURRAY OKLAHOMA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is currently low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday, before progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. Northern/eastern portion of this boundary is expected progress eastward off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast while the southern/western portion only makes modest southerly progression across the Southeast and TX. Much of the better low-level moisture and greater buoyancy will exist from the Southeast into TX, displaced south/west of the stronger mid-level flow and greater vertical shear. This will likely limit the organized thunderstorm potential, with a mostly pulse/multicellular storm mode anticipated. A few damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms along the front farther north/east across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic, but limited buoyancy should keep coverage low. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is currently low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday, before progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. Northern/eastern portion of this boundary is expected progress eastward off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast while the southern/western portion only makes modest southerly progression across the Southeast and TX. Much of the better low-level moisture and greater buoyancy will exist from the Southeast into TX, displaced south/west of the stronger mid-level flow and greater vertical shear. This will likely limit the organized thunderstorm potential, with a mostly pulse/multicellular storm mode anticipated. A few damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms along the front farther north/east across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic, but limited buoyancy should keep coverage low. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is currently low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday, before progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. Northern/eastern portion of this boundary is expected progress eastward off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast while the southern/western portion only makes modest southerly progression across the Southeast and TX. Much of the better low-level moisture and greater buoyancy will exist from the Southeast into TX, displaced south/west of the stronger mid-level flow and greater vertical shear. This will likely limit the organized thunderstorm potential, with a mostly pulse/multicellular storm mode anticipated. A few damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms along the front farther north/east across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic, but limited buoyancy should keep coverage low. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is currently low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday, before progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. Northern/eastern portion of this boundary is expected progress eastward off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast while the southern/western portion only makes modest southerly progression across the Southeast and TX. Much of the better low-level moisture and greater buoyancy will exist from the Southeast into TX, displaced south/west of the stronger mid-level flow and greater vertical shear. This will likely limit the organized thunderstorm potential, with a mostly pulse/multicellular storm mode anticipated. A few damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms along the front farther north/east across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic, but limited buoyancy should keep coverage low. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is currently low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday, before progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. Northern/eastern portion of this boundary is expected progress eastward off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast while the southern/western portion only makes modest southerly progression across the Southeast and TX. Much of the better low-level moisture and greater buoyancy will exist from the Southeast into TX, displaced south/west of the stronger mid-level flow and greater vertical shear. This will likely limit the organized thunderstorm potential, with a mostly pulse/multicellular storm mode anticipated. A few damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms along the front farther north/east across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic, but limited buoyancy should keep coverage low. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is currently low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday, before progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. Northern/eastern portion of this boundary is expected progress eastward off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast while the southern/western portion only makes modest southerly progression across the Southeast and TX. Much of the better low-level moisture and greater buoyancy will exist from the Southeast into TX, displaced south/west of the stronger mid-level flow and greater vertical shear. This will likely limit the organized thunderstorm potential, with a mostly pulse/multicellular storm mode anticipated. A few damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms along the front farther north/east across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic, but limited buoyancy should keep coverage low. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is currently low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday, before progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. Northern/eastern portion of this boundary is expected progress eastward off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast while the southern/western portion only makes modest southerly progression across the Southeast and TX. Much of the better low-level moisture and greater buoyancy will exist from the Southeast into TX, displaced south/west of the stronger mid-level flow and greater vertical shear. This will likely limit the organized thunderstorm potential, with a mostly pulse/multicellular storm mode anticipated. A few damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms along the front farther north/east across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic, but limited buoyancy should keep coverage low. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is currently low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday, before progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. Northern/eastern portion of this boundary is expected progress eastward off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast while the southern/western portion only makes modest southerly progression across the Southeast and TX. Much of the better low-level moisture and greater buoyancy will exist from the Southeast into TX, displaced south/west of the stronger mid-level flow and greater vertical shear. This will likely limit the organized thunderstorm potential, with a mostly pulse/multicellular storm mode anticipated. A few damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms along the front farther north/east across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic, but limited buoyancy should keep coverage low. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is currently low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday, before progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. Northern/eastern portion of this boundary is expected progress eastward off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast while the southern/western portion only makes modest southerly progression across the Southeast and TX. Much of the better low-level moisture and greater buoyancy will exist from the Southeast into TX, displaced south/west of the stronger mid-level flow and greater vertical shear. This will likely limit the organized thunderstorm potential, with a mostly pulse/multicellular storm mode anticipated. A few damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms along the front farther north/east across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic, but limited buoyancy should keep coverage low. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is currently low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday, before progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. Northern/eastern portion of this boundary is expected progress eastward off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast while the southern/western portion only makes modest southerly progression across the Southeast and TX. Much of the better low-level moisture and greater buoyancy will exist from the Southeast into TX, displaced south/west of the stronger mid-level flow and greater vertical shear. This will likely limit the organized thunderstorm potential, with a mostly pulse/multicellular storm mode anticipated. A few damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms along the front farther north/east across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic, but limited buoyancy should keep coverage low. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more