Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0389 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0389 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0389 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0389 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 4 18:46:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1162 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1162 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Areas affected...Far eastern Texas and western Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041741Z - 041845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A thunderstorm complex near the TX/LA border will continue to slowly progress east-southeastward through this afternoon. A few stronger embedded thunderstorms on its western flank may produce marginally severe hail and localized damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...A remnant overnight thunderstorm complex is beginning to show signs of localized intensification on its western flank early this afternoon over east TX. In particular, latest infrared satellite imagery indicates cloud tops are cooling over Shelby and Nacogdoches Counties. This is also apparent in radar imagery. The convective environment near and just downstream of this system continues to destabilize, with surface temperatures now in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, under modest mid-level lapse rates. Although mid to upper flow is weak, large CAPE within the hail growth zone could support brief instances of marginally severe hail near 0.75-1.25". In addition, precipitation loading within merging clusters in a localized corridor of relatively steeper low level lapse rates may produce damaging wind gusts up to 60-65 mph. Considering the weaker aforementioned flow, narrow corridor of the severe threat, and lack of persistent storm organization, a WW does not appear likely at this time. ..Barnes/Smith.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32049249 31689233 31199223 30839310 30809353 30829431 31069488 31429529 31719530 32039509 32259478 32389433 32449402 32419357 32359269 32049249 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across the Midwest including portions of Indiana and Ohio into Lower Michigan. Severe storms may also occur across parts of south/east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... Height falls and strengthening cyclonic westerlies are expected via a shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes, to the southeast of a substantial mid/upper-level trough over the Canadian Prairies. The potential for at least widely scattered early day precipitation and cloud cover casts some uncertainty regarding the exact degree, and preferred regional corridors, of more appreciable diurnal destabilization within a moist airmass ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, parts of Indiana into southern Lower Michigan and Ohio currently appear to have the most diurnally favorable ingredients for severe storms. While multicells capable of wind damage and possibly some hail should be the most common scenario regionally, somewhat stronger mid/low-level flow across Ohio may be conducive for a few supercells and possibly some tornado risk. ...South-central/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... The region, mainly from east Texas northeastward, will be glancingly influenced by a weak height falls and moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft, but more directly by a probable MCS that could be located across the ArkLaTex, or perhaps even a bit farther south across Louisiana/east Texas around sunrise. This MCS may have largely weakened by daybreak Wednesday morning, but some strong/locally severe storms are plausible. Related convective outflow may also regionally focus renewed storm development and intensification into the afternoon. The details of storm development/likelihood are more uncertain with southwestward extent into south-central Texas and toward the Rio Grande, but a few severe storms could occur if/where storms develop within a hot and very unstable environment. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon in the post-frontal environment characterized by limited boundary layer moisture (40s to lower 50s F surface dewpoints) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Relatively strong westerlies in the cloud-bearing layer and around 25+ degree F diurnal temperature/dewpoint spreads are suggestive of the possibility of strong convectively enhanced wind gusts, and possibly some hail. The region will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for the potential introduction of low severe probabilities. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across the Midwest including portions of Indiana and Ohio into Lower Michigan. Severe storms may also occur across parts of south/east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... Height falls and strengthening cyclonic westerlies are expected via a shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes, to the southeast of a substantial mid/upper-level trough over the Canadian Prairies. The potential for at least widely scattered early day precipitation and cloud cover casts some uncertainty regarding the exact degree, and preferred regional corridors, of more appreciable diurnal destabilization within a moist airmass ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, parts of Indiana into southern Lower Michigan and Ohio currently appear to have the most diurnally favorable ingredients for severe storms. While multicells capable of wind damage and possibly some hail should be the most common scenario regionally, somewhat stronger mid/low-level flow across Ohio may be conducive for a few supercells and possibly some tornado risk. ...South-central/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... The region, mainly from east Texas northeastward, will be glancingly influenced by a weak height falls and moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft, but more directly by a probable MCS that could be located across the ArkLaTex, or perhaps even a bit farther south across Louisiana/east Texas around sunrise. This MCS may have largely weakened by daybreak Wednesday morning, but some strong/locally severe storms are plausible. Related convective outflow may also regionally focus renewed storm development and intensification into the afternoon. The details of storm development/likelihood are more uncertain with southwestward extent into south-central Texas and toward the Rio Grande, but a few severe storms could occur if/where storms develop within a hot and very unstable environment. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon in the post-frontal environment characterized by limited boundary layer moisture (40s to lower 50s F surface dewpoints) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Relatively strong westerlies in the cloud-bearing layer and around 25+ degree F diurnal temperature/dewpoint spreads are suggestive of the possibility of strong convectively enhanced wind gusts, and possibly some hail. The region will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for the potential introduction of low severe probabilities. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across the Midwest including portions of Indiana and Ohio into Lower Michigan. Severe storms may also occur across parts of south/east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... Height falls and strengthening cyclonic westerlies are expected via a shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes, to the southeast of a substantial mid/upper-level trough over the Canadian Prairies. The potential for at least widely scattered early day precipitation and cloud cover casts some uncertainty regarding the exact degree, and preferred regional corridors, of more appreciable diurnal destabilization within a moist airmass ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, parts of Indiana into southern Lower Michigan and Ohio currently appear to have the most diurnally favorable ingredients for severe storms. While multicells capable of wind damage and possibly some hail should be the most common scenario regionally, somewhat stronger mid/low-level flow across Ohio may be conducive for a few supercells and possibly some tornado risk. ...South-central/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... The region, mainly from east Texas northeastward, will be glancingly influenced by a weak height falls and moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft, but more directly by a probable MCS that could be located across the ArkLaTex, or perhaps even a bit farther south across Louisiana/east Texas around sunrise. This MCS may have largely weakened by daybreak Wednesday morning, but some strong/locally severe storms are plausible. Related convective outflow may also regionally focus renewed storm development and intensification into the afternoon. The details of storm development/likelihood are more uncertain with southwestward extent into south-central Texas and toward the Rio Grande, but a few severe storms could occur if/where storms develop within a hot and very unstable environment. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon in the post-frontal environment characterized by limited boundary layer moisture (40s to lower 50s F surface dewpoints) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Relatively strong westerlies in the cloud-bearing layer and around 25+ degree F diurnal temperature/dewpoint spreads are suggestive of the possibility of strong convectively enhanced wind gusts, and possibly some hail. The region will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for the potential introduction of low severe probabilities. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across the Midwest including portions of Indiana and Ohio into Lower Michigan. Severe storms may also occur across parts of south/east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... Height falls and strengthening cyclonic westerlies are expected via a shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes, to the southeast of a substantial mid/upper-level trough over the Canadian Prairies. The potential for at least widely scattered early day precipitation and cloud cover casts some uncertainty regarding the exact degree, and preferred regional corridors, of more appreciable diurnal destabilization within a moist airmass ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, parts of Indiana into southern Lower Michigan and Ohio currently appear to have the most diurnally favorable ingredients for severe storms. While multicells capable of wind damage and possibly some hail should be the most common scenario regionally, somewhat stronger mid/low-level flow across Ohio may be conducive for a few supercells and possibly some tornado risk. ...South-central/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... The region, mainly from east Texas northeastward, will be glancingly influenced by a weak height falls and moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft, but more directly by a probable MCS that could be located across the ArkLaTex, or perhaps even a bit farther south across Louisiana/east Texas around sunrise. This MCS may have largely weakened by daybreak Wednesday morning, but some strong/locally severe storms are plausible. Related convective outflow may also regionally focus renewed storm development and intensification into the afternoon. The details of storm development/likelihood are more uncertain with southwestward extent into south-central Texas and toward the Rio Grande, but a few severe storms could occur if/where storms develop within a hot and very unstable environment. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon in the post-frontal environment characterized by limited boundary layer moisture (40s to lower 50s F surface dewpoints) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Relatively strong westerlies in the cloud-bearing layer and around 25+ degree F diurnal temperature/dewpoint spreads are suggestive of the possibility of strong convectively enhanced wind gusts, and possibly some hail. The region will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for the potential introduction of low severe probabilities. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across the Midwest including portions of Indiana and Ohio into Lower Michigan. Severe storms may also occur across parts of south/east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... Height falls and strengthening cyclonic westerlies are expected via a shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes, to the southeast of a substantial mid/upper-level trough over the Canadian Prairies. The potential for at least widely scattered early day precipitation and cloud cover casts some uncertainty regarding the exact degree, and preferred regional corridors, of more appreciable diurnal destabilization within a moist airmass ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, parts of Indiana into southern Lower Michigan and Ohio currently appear to have the most diurnally favorable ingredients for severe storms. While multicells capable of wind damage and possibly some hail should be the most common scenario regionally, somewhat stronger mid/low-level flow across Ohio may be conducive for a few supercells and possibly some tornado risk. ...South-central/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... The region, mainly from east Texas northeastward, will be glancingly influenced by a weak height falls and moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft, but more directly by a probable MCS that could be located across the ArkLaTex, or perhaps even a bit farther south across Louisiana/east Texas around sunrise. This MCS may have largely weakened by daybreak Wednesday morning, but some strong/locally severe storms are plausible. Related convective outflow may also regionally focus renewed storm development and intensification into the afternoon. The details of storm development/likelihood are more uncertain with southwestward extent into south-central Texas and toward the Rio Grande, but a few severe storms could occur if/where storms develop within a hot and very unstable environment. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon in the post-frontal environment characterized by limited boundary layer moisture (40s to lower 50s F surface dewpoints) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Relatively strong westerlies in the cloud-bearing layer and around 25+ degree F diurnal temperature/dewpoint spreads are suggestive of the possibility of strong convectively enhanced wind gusts, and possibly some hail. The region will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for the potential introduction of low severe probabilities. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across the Midwest including portions of Indiana and Ohio into Lower Michigan. Severe storms may also occur across parts of south/east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... Height falls and strengthening cyclonic westerlies are expected via a shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes, to the southeast of a substantial mid/upper-level trough over the Canadian Prairies. The potential for at least widely scattered early day precipitation and cloud cover casts some uncertainty regarding the exact degree, and preferred regional corridors, of more appreciable diurnal destabilization within a moist airmass ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, parts of Indiana into southern Lower Michigan and Ohio currently appear to have the most diurnally favorable ingredients for severe storms. While multicells capable of wind damage and possibly some hail should be the most common scenario regionally, somewhat stronger mid/low-level flow across Ohio may be conducive for a few supercells and possibly some tornado risk. ...South-central/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... The region, mainly from east Texas northeastward, will be glancingly influenced by a weak height falls and moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft, but more directly by a probable MCS that could be located across the ArkLaTex, or perhaps even a bit farther south across Louisiana/east Texas around sunrise. This MCS may have largely weakened by daybreak Wednesday morning, but some strong/locally severe storms are plausible. Related convective outflow may also regionally focus renewed storm development and intensification into the afternoon. The details of storm development/likelihood are more uncertain with southwestward extent into south-central Texas and toward the Rio Grande, but a few severe storms could occur if/where storms develop within a hot and very unstable environment. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon in the post-frontal environment characterized by limited boundary layer moisture (40s to lower 50s F surface dewpoints) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Relatively strong westerlies in the cloud-bearing layer and around 25+ degree F diurnal temperature/dewpoint spreads are suggestive of the possibility of strong convectively enhanced wind gusts, and possibly some hail. The region will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for the potential introduction of low severe probabilities. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across the Midwest including portions of Indiana and Ohio into Lower Michigan. Severe storms may also occur across parts of south/east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... Height falls and strengthening cyclonic westerlies are expected via a shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes, to the southeast of a substantial mid/upper-level trough over the Canadian Prairies. The potential for at least widely scattered early day precipitation and cloud cover casts some uncertainty regarding the exact degree, and preferred regional corridors, of more appreciable diurnal destabilization within a moist airmass ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, parts of Indiana into southern Lower Michigan and Ohio currently appear to have the most diurnally favorable ingredients for severe storms. While multicells capable of wind damage and possibly some hail should be the most common scenario regionally, somewhat stronger mid/low-level flow across Ohio may be conducive for a few supercells and possibly some tornado risk. ...South-central/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... The region, mainly from east Texas northeastward, will be glancingly influenced by a weak height falls and moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft, but more directly by a probable MCS that could be located across the ArkLaTex, or perhaps even a bit farther south across Louisiana/east Texas around sunrise. This MCS may have largely weakened by daybreak Wednesday morning, but some strong/locally severe storms are plausible. Related convective outflow may also regionally focus renewed storm development and intensification into the afternoon. The details of storm development/likelihood are more uncertain with southwestward extent into south-central Texas and toward the Rio Grande, but a few severe storms could occur if/where storms develop within a hot and very unstable environment. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon in the post-frontal environment characterized by limited boundary layer moisture (40s to lower 50s F surface dewpoints) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Relatively strong westerlies in the cloud-bearing layer and around 25+ degree F diurnal temperature/dewpoint spreads are suggestive of the possibility of strong convectively enhanced wind gusts, and possibly some hail. The region will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for the potential introduction of low severe probabilities. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across the Midwest including portions of Indiana and Ohio into Lower Michigan. Severe storms may also occur across parts of south/east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... Height falls and strengthening cyclonic westerlies are expected via a shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes, to the southeast of a substantial mid/upper-level trough over the Canadian Prairies. The potential for at least widely scattered early day precipitation and cloud cover casts some uncertainty regarding the exact degree, and preferred regional corridors, of more appreciable diurnal destabilization within a moist airmass ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, parts of Indiana into southern Lower Michigan and Ohio currently appear to have the most diurnally favorable ingredients for severe storms. While multicells capable of wind damage and possibly some hail should be the most common scenario regionally, somewhat stronger mid/low-level flow across Ohio may be conducive for a few supercells and possibly some tornado risk. ...South-central/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... The region, mainly from east Texas northeastward, will be glancingly influenced by a weak height falls and moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft, but more directly by a probable MCS that could be located across the ArkLaTex, or perhaps even a bit farther south across Louisiana/east Texas around sunrise. This MCS may have largely weakened by daybreak Wednesday morning, but some strong/locally severe storms are plausible. Related convective outflow may also regionally focus renewed storm development and intensification into the afternoon. The details of storm development/likelihood are more uncertain with southwestward extent into south-central Texas and toward the Rio Grande, but a few severe storms could occur if/where storms develop within a hot and very unstable environment. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon in the post-frontal environment characterized by limited boundary layer moisture (40s to lower 50s F surface dewpoints) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Relatively strong westerlies in the cloud-bearing layer and around 25+ degree F diurnal temperature/dewpoint spreads are suggestive of the possibility of strong convectively enhanced wind gusts, and possibly some hail. The region will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for the potential introduction of low severe probabilities. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across the Midwest including portions of Indiana and Ohio into Lower Michigan. Severe storms may also occur across parts of south/east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... Height falls and strengthening cyclonic westerlies are expected via a shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes, to the southeast of a substantial mid/upper-level trough over the Canadian Prairies. The potential for at least widely scattered early day precipitation and cloud cover casts some uncertainty regarding the exact degree, and preferred regional corridors, of more appreciable diurnal destabilization within a moist airmass ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, parts of Indiana into southern Lower Michigan and Ohio currently appear to have the most diurnally favorable ingredients for severe storms. While multicells capable of wind damage and possibly some hail should be the most common scenario regionally, somewhat stronger mid/low-level flow across Ohio may be conducive for a few supercells and possibly some tornado risk. ...South-central/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... The region, mainly from east Texas northeastward, will be glancingly influenced by a weak height falls and moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft, but more directly by a probable MCS that could be located across the ArkLaTex, or perhaps even a bit farther south across Louisiana/east Texas around sunrise. This MCS may have largely weakened by daybreak Wednesday morning, but some strong/locally severe storms are plausible. Related convective outflow may also regionally focus renewed storm development and intensification into the afternoon. The details of storm development/likelihood are more uncertain with southwestward extent into south-central Texas and toward the Rio Grande, but a few severe storms could occur if/where storms develop within a hot and very unstable environment. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon in the post-frontal environment characterized by limited boundary layer moisture (40s to lower 50s F surface dewpoints) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Relatively strong westerlies in the cloud-bearing layer and around 25+ degree F diurnal temperature/dewpoint spreads are suggestive of the possibility of strong convectively enhanced wind gusts, and possibly some hail. The region will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for the potential introduction of low severe probabilities. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across the Midwest including portions of Indiana and Ohio into Lower Michigan. Severe storms may also occur across parts of south/east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... Height falls and strengthening cyclonic westerlies are expected via a shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes, to the southeast of a substantial mid/upper-level trough over the Canadian Prairies. The potential for at least widely scattered early day precipitation and cloud cover casts some uncertainty regarding the exact degree, and preferred regional corridors, of more appreciable diurnal destabilization within a moist airmass ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, parts of Indiana into southern Lower Michigan and Ohio currently appear to have the most diurnally favorable ingredients for severe storms. While multicells capable of wind damage and possibly some hail should be the most common scenario regionally, somewhat stronger mid/low-level flow across Ohio may be conducive for a few supercells and possibly some tornado risk. ...South-central/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... The region, mainly from east Texas northeastward, will be glancingly influenced by a weak height falls and moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft, but more directly by a probable MCS that could be located across the ArkLaTex, or perhaps even a bit farther south across Louisiana/east Texas around sunrise. This MCS may have largely weakened by daybreak Wednesday morning, but some strong/locally severe storms are plausible. Related convective outflow may also regionally focus renewed storm development and intensification into the afternoon. The details of storm development/likelihood are more uncertain with southwestward extent into south-central Texas and toward the Rio Grande, but a few severe storms could occur if/where storms develop within a hot and very unstable environment. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon in the post-frontal environment characterized by limited boundary layer moisture (40s to lower 50s F surface dewpoints) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Relatively strong westerlies in the cloud-bearing layer and around 25+ degree F diurnal temperature/dewpoint spreads are suggestive of the possibility of strong convectively enhanced wind gusts, and possibly some hail. The region will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for the potential introduction of low severe probabilities. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across the Midwest including portions of Indiana and Ohio into Lower Michigan. Severe storms may also occur across parts of south/east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... Height falls and strengthening cyclonic westerlies are expected via a shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes, to the southeast of a substantial mid/upper-level trough over the Canadian Prairies. The potential for at least widely scattered early day precipitation and cloud cover casts some uncertainty regarding the exact degree, and preferred regional corridors, of more appreciable diurnal destabilization within a moist airmass ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, parts of Indiana into southern Lower Michigan and Ohio currently appear to have the most diurnally favorable ingredients for severe storms. While multicells capable of wind damage and possibly some hail should be the most common scenario regionally, somewhat stronger mid/low-level flow across Ohio may be conducive for a few supercells and possibly some tornado risk. ...South-central/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... The region, mainly from east Texas northeastward, will be glancingly influenced by a weak height falls and moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft, but more directly by a probable MCS that could be located across the ArkLaTex, or perhaps even a bit farther south across Louisiana/east Texas around sunrise. This MCS may have largely weakened by daybreak Wednesday morning, but some strong/locally severe storms are plausible. Related convective outflow may also regionally focus renewed storm development and intensification into the afternoon. The details of storm development/likelihood are more uncertain with southwestward extent into south-central Texas and toward the Rio Grande, but a few severe storms could occur if/where storms develop within a hot and very unstable environment. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon in the post-frontal environment characterized by limited boundary layer moisture (40s to lower 50s F surface dewpoints) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Relatively strong westerlies in the cloud-bearing layer and around 25+ degree F diurnal temperature/dewpoint spreads are suggestive of the possibility of strong convectively enhanced wind gusts, and possibly some hail. The region will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for the potential introduction of low severe probabilities. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across the Midwest including portions of Indiana and Ohio into Lower Michigan. Severe storms may also occur across parts of south/east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... Height falls and strengthening cyclonic westerlies are expected via a shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes, to the southeast of a substantial mid/upper-level trough over the Canadian Prairies. The potential for at least widely scattered early day precipitation and cloud cover casts some uncertainty regarding the exact degree, and preferred regional corridors, of more appreciable diurnal destabilization within a moist airmass ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, parts of Indiana into southern Lower Michigan and Ohio currently appear to have the most diurnally favorable ingredients for severe storms. While multicells capable of wind damage and possibly some hail should be the most common scenario regionally, somewhat stronger mid/low-level flow across Ohio may be conducive for a few supercells and possibly some tornado risk. ...South-central/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... The region, mainly from east Texas northeastward, will be glancingly influenced by a weak height falls and moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft, but more directly by a probable MCS that could be located across the ArkLaTex, or perhaps even a bit farther south across Louisiana/east Texas around sunrise. This MCS may have largely weakened by daybreak Wednesday morning, but some strong/locally severe storms are plausible. Related convective outflow may also regionally focus renewed storm development and intensification into the afternoon. The details of storm development/likelihood are more uncertain with southwestward extent into south-central Texas and toward the Rio Grande, but a few severe storms could occur if/where storms develop within a hot and very unstable environment. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon in the post-frontal environment characterized by limited boundary layer moisture (40s to lower 50s F surface dewpoints) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Relatively strong westerlies in the cloud-bearing layer and around 25+ degree F diurnal temperature/dewpoint spreads are suggestive of the possibility of strong convectively enhanced wind gusts, and possibly some hail. The region will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for the potential introduction of low severe probabilities. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 Read more