Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A tornado and large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Forecast reasoning and related graphical risk depictions remain largely unchanged, although some spatial adjustments were made in Louisiana and Mississippi related to an ongoing MCS and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a south-southeastward moving MCS along the TX/LA border. Heating of the airmass ahead of the MCS will continue to lead to strong destabilization. A rejuvenation of storm intensity along the western flank of the MCS is possible where a reservoir of very rich low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will aid in strong/severe storm potential. Damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary across north TX northward into OK. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s across central-southern OK where isolated thunderstorm development is forecast by late this afternoon/early evening along the edge of richer moisture. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/initial coverage is uncertain. Nonetheless, a short window of opportunity may exist for a tornado risk if a quasi-discrete mode can occur early in the convective life cycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-85 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. Have opted to upgrade to a 30-percent significant wind area for greater confidence in a severe MCS across central/eastern OK. Farther north, thunderstorms for forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with those stronger storms. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some low-level hodographs enlargement in northern MN may aid in some brief updraft rotation potential before an extensive band of storms becomes outflow dominant. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A tornado and large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Forecast reasoning and related graphical risk depictions remain largely unchanged, although some spatial adjustments were made in Louisiana and Mississippi related to an ongoing MCS and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a south-southeastward moving MCS along the TX/LA border. Heating of the airmass ahead of the MCS will continue to lead to strong destabilization. A rejuvenation of storm intensity along the western flank of the MCS is possible where a reservoir of very rich low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will aid in strong/severe storm potential. Damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary across north TX northward into OK. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s across central-southern OK where isolated thunderstorm development is forecast by late this afternoon/early evening along the edge of richer moisture. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/initial coverage is uncertain. Nonetheless, a short window of opportunity may exist for a tornado risk if a quasi-discrete mode can occur early in the convective life cycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-85 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. Have opted to upgrade to a 30-percent significant wind area for greater confidence in a severe MCS across central/eastern OK. Farther north, thunderstorms for forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with those stronger storms. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some low-level hodographs enlargement in northern MN may aid in some brief updraft rotation potential before an extensive band of storms becomes outflow dominant. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A tornado and large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Forecast reasoning and related graphical risk depictions remain largely unchanged, although some spatial adjustments were made in Louisiana and Mississippi related to an ongoing MCS and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a south-southeastward moving MCS along the TX/LA border. Heating of the airmass ahead of the MCS will continue to lead to strong destabilization. A rejuvenation of storm intensity along the western flank of the MCS is possible where a reservoir of very rich low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will aid in strong/severe storm potential. Damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary across north TX northward into OK. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s across central-southern OK where isolated thunderstorm development is forecast by late this afternoon/early evening along the edge of richer moisture. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/initial coverage is uncertain. Nonetheless, a short window of opportunity may exist for a tornado risk if a quasi-discrete mode can occur early in the convective life cycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-85 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. Have opted to upgrade to a 30-percent significant wind area for greater confidence in a severe MCS across central/eastern OK. Farther north, thunderstorms for forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with those stronger storms. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some low-level hodographs enlargement in northern MN may aid in some brief updraft rotation potential before an extensive band of storms becomes outflow dominant. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A tornado and large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Forecast reasoning and related graphical risk depictions remain largely unchanged, although some spatial adjustments were made in Louisiana and Mississippi related to an ongoing MCS and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a south-southeastward moving MCS along the TX/LA border. Heating of the airmass ahead of the MCS will continue to lead to strong destabilization. A rejuvenation of storm intensity along the western flank of the MCS is possible where a reservoir of very rich low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will aid in strong/severe storm potential. Damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary across north TX northward into OK. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s across central-southern OK where isolated thunderstorm development is forecast by late this afternoon/early evening along the edge of richer moisture. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/initial coverage is uncertain. Nonetheless, a short window of opportunity may exist for a tornado risk if a quasi-discrete mode can occur early in the convective life cycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-85 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. Have opted to upgrade to a 30-percent significant wind area for greater confidence in a severe MCS across central/eastern OK. Farther north, thunderstorms for forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with those stronger storms. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some low-level hodographs enlargement in northern MN may aid in some brief updraft rotation potential before an extensive band of storms becomes outflow dominant. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A tornado and large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Forecast reasoning and related graphical risk depictions remain largely unchanged, although some spatial adjustments were made in Louisiana and Mississippi related to an ongoing MCS and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a south-southeastward moving MCS along the TX/LA border. Heating of the airmass ahead of the MCS will continue to lead to strong destabilization. A rejuvenation of storm intensity along the western flank of the MCS is possible where a reservoir of very rich low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will aid in strong/severe storm potential. Damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary across north TX northward into OK. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s across central-southern OK where isolated thunderstorm development is forecast by late this afternoon/early evening along the edge of richer moisture. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/initial coverage is uncertain. Nonetheless, a short window of opportunity may exist for a tornado risk if a quasi-discrete mode can occur early in the convective life cycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-85 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. Have opted to upgrade to a 30-percent significant wind area for greater confidence in a severe MCS across central/eastern OK. Farther north, thunderstorms for forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with those stronger storms. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some low-level hodographs enlargement in northern MN may aid in some brief updraft rotation potential before an extensive band of storms becomes outflow dominant. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A tornado and large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Forecast reasoning and related graphical risk depictions remain largely unchanged, although some spatial adjustments were made in Louisiana and Mississippi related to an ongoing MCS and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a south-southeastward moving MCS along the TX/LA border. Heating of the airmass ahead of the MCS will continue to lead to strong destabilization. A rejuvenation of storm intensity along the western flank of the MCS is possible where a reservoir of very rich low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will aid in strong/severe storm potential. Damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary across north TX northward into OK. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s across central-southern OK where isolated thunderstorm development is forecast by late this afternoon/early evening along the edge of richer moisture. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/initial coverage is uncertain. Nonetheless, a short window of opportunity may exist for a tornado risk if a quasi-discrete mode can occur early in the convective life cycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-85 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. Have opted to upgrade to a 30-percent significant wind area for greater confidence in a severe MCS across central/eastern OK. Farther north, thunderstorms for forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with those stronger storms. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some low-level hodographs enlargement in northern MN may aid in some brief updraft rotation potential before an extensive band of storms becomes outflow dominant. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. Read more

WW 0391 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0391 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1161 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1161 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Areas affected...much of western into central Minnesota...adjacent portions of eastern South Dakota and northwestern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041724Z - 042000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development may gradually intensify and organize into a line while overspreading the region through 2-4 PM CDT. This is expected to be accompanied primarily by a risk for marginally severe hail and wind, with perhaps an isolated tornado possible. DISCUSSION...Relatively deep surface troughing, near/just ahead of an eastward advancing cold front, appears likely to become a focus for gradually intensifying thunderstorm development through 19-21Z. It appears that this will be aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent, downstream of amplified mid-level troughing progressing across the northern Great Plains, and destabilization associated with a narrow corridor of deeper boundary-layer moistening. It appears that this moistening will contribute to CAPE increasing up to 1500+ J/kg across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota during the next few hours. Some strengthening of south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow (from 30-40 kt) and shear may be ongoing to the east of the Red River Valley. Although low-level hodographs may be initially sizable and clockwise curved beneath 30 kt southerly 850 mb flow across northern into central Minnesota, model forecast soundings indicate that these will trend more linear with the approach of the front and corridor of increasing thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms seem likely to consolidate into developing a line of convection with primarily a marginal severe hail to wind threat. However, the risk for a tornado might not be completely negligible, mainly if a discrete storm or two can develop and be maintained ahead of the developing line across north central Minnesota. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 49199302 47869329 46269314 44209374 43259442 42739579 43269655 44269629 45779605 48059599 49369512 50079367 49199302 Read more

WW 0390 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0390 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will rapidly build over the western third of the CONUS Wednesday. As flow aloft is shunted northward, surface winds across much of the Southwest are forecast to weaken while the air mass below remains quite hot. A backdoor front over the eastern half of NM will allow for higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms over the southern Rockies/High Plains. This along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. While isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ, coverage and duration appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more