Severe Storms

WW 195 TORNADO IL IN MI WI LM 071825Z - 080100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 195 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Northern Illinois Central and Northern Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Southeast Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify this afternoon into the early evening. The environment will continue to destabilize through the mid to late afternoon across much of the Watch area. The stronger storms will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for large to very large hail, severe gusts, and tornadoes. A couple of the more intense supercells may yield the potential for a strong tornado. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Racine WI to 60 miles southwest of Bloomington IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

MD 0681 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN VIRGINIA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0681 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Areas affected...western/central North Carolina and western Virginia. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072105Z - 072230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts are possible this evening. DISCUSSION...A few storms have formed over the mountains and are moving toward greater instability across central North Carolina this afternoon. Amid around 30 to 35 knots of effective shear (per SPC mesoanalysis), storms have been organized with some supercell structures apparent. Given the supercell storm mode and moderate to strong instability and increasing shear through the evening, there will be a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts with these storms. Height rises and synoptic scale subsidence should keep storm coverage isolated and end the threat by sunset which should preclude the need for a watch. ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 37418191 38018159 37587997 36887899 36137892 35657904 34847939 34828125 34998189 35368232 37418191 Read more

WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW SLO TO 15 NNE MTO TO 10 NNE DNV TO 15 S VPZ TO 25 WSW BEH TO 40 W MKG. ..BENTLEY..05/07/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...IND...IWX...GRR...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC023-025-029-033-035-041-045-049-079-101-159-173-183-072340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM JASPER LAWRENCE RICHLAND SHELBY VERMILION INC005-007-011-013-015-017-021-023-027-039-045-049-053-055-057- 059-063-067-069-071-081-083-085-087-091-093-095-097-099-101-103- 105-107-109-113-119-121-131-133-141-145-149-153-157-159-165-167- 169-171-181-183-072340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BENTON BOONE BROWN CARROLL CASS CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS ELKHART FOUNTAIN FULTON GRANT GREENE HAMILTON Read more

WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0197 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0680 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MI...EASTERN IN...WESTERN OH...FAR NORTHERN KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0680 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Areas affected...southern Lower MI...eastern IN...western OH...far northern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 072033Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...As supercells spread quickly east-northeast from southern Lower MI and northwest IN, an additional tornado watch/watches will be needed prior to 22Z. This may also include a combined/separate watch farther south in eastern IN/western OH ahead of supercells intensifying over the Wabash Valley. DISCUSSION...As mentioned in MCD 0679, an increasingly favorable setup for supercells, a couple of which may be long-tracked, is underway across northwest IN to the Wabash Valley. The northern storms may being to outpace the rapid boundary-layer warming/moistening that is occurring across northeast IN and northwest OH into southern Lower MI. Nevertheless, the intense mid-level jet will likely foster sustained supercells even as they become slightly elevated towards southeast Lower MI. With backed low-level flow and ample low-level shear (per IWX VWP data), the tornado threat will remain prominent with any supercells along and south of the surface warm front. A couple strong tornadoes are possible. ..Grams/Smith.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 42758544 42698458 41898367 41398340 40538329 38478394 38308491 38688589 41048526 42758544 Read more