Severe Storms

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E LBL TO 20 WSW DDC TO 50 WSW RSL. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-057-083-097-119-145-151-165-185-031040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FORD HODGEMAN KIOWA MEADE PAWNEE PRATT RUSH STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW GCK TO 55 SSW HLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1147. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-069-081-083-097-101-119-135-145-151- 165-185-030940- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KIOWA LANE MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RUSH STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1147 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383... FOR SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...Southwest KS to northwest OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383... Valid 030800Z - 030930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383 continues. SUMMARY...Increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts is expected through dawn as a developing QLCS intensifies across southwest Kansas. It appears this should eventually track towards northwest Oklahoma and an additional severe thunderstorm watch will be considered as it approaches. DISCUSSION...A 150-km long developing QLCS is ongoing across southwest KS. While it is initially rooted from elevated parcels and MRMS MESH cores have flirted around 1 inch, strong surface wind gusts have been observed (up to 55 mph at the Ulysses AWOS). This QLCS should intensify as it impinges on increasing buoyancy advecting across the Panhandles amid a 45-50 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet per Amarillo VWP data. Surface wind gusts of 55-70 mph should become more numerous into daybreak. While the bulk of 00Z CAM guidance indicated MCS development spreading more easterly across southern KS, the 06Z HRRR along with 00Z NSSL-MPAS suggest a more southeasterly track into northwest OK. Given the placement of both the MLCAPE/MUCAPE gradient and residual outflows from prior MCSs, this scenario appears more likely. ..Grams/Thompson.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 38280065 38310006 37739874 37329808 36939772 36579780 36339802 36149857 36089920 36309981 36880080 37330129 37690139 38280065 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-069-081-083-093-097-101-119-135-145- 151-165-171-185-030840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RUSH SCOTT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more