Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southern Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... Within a weak and predominately zonal mid-level flow regime, a complex series of mesoscale features will dictate the potential for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A subtle, convectively enhanced shortwave trough currently over the mid Missouri Valley will move into parts of the upper Midwest by early afternoon. A second remnant MCS appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over the southern/central Plains. The potential outflow from this system may serve as a focus for secondary initiation later in the afternoon across parts of TX and OK. Additional storms are also possible along the dryline in Southwest TX. ...Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley... Rich low-level moisture advection is expected to be ongoing with southerly low-level flow across much of the Midwest ahead of the remnant MCV early this morning. Some clearing should allow diurnal heating to support moderate destabilization ahead of the MCV from eastern IA into southern WI and far northern IL despite relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Weak convergence and some ascent from the convectively enhanced shortwave should allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer shear profiles are not particularly strong (20-30 kt), though some low and mid-level enhancement from the MCV may be enough to support organized multicells and a few transient supercells structures. Damaging wind gusts, hail and a brief tornado or two will be possible. More isolated storms are also possible along a subtle wind shift/ surface pressure trough farther south across parts of eastern MO and western IL. However, confidence in storm development here is low owing to the potential disruption of diurnal heating from cloud debris or remnant convection from the overnight central Plains MCS. Still, a few instances of hail or damaging winds are possible should an organized multicell cluster or two develop. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaMs... Short-term CAM and regional model guidance has come into fairly strong agreement on the presence of an overnight MCS across parts of the central Plains. By 12z convection will most likely be located across parts of southern KS, to as far as northeast OK. Relatively clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection (low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints) will likely be in place ahead of the early morning storms. This, along with numerous CAM solutions, suggests intensification of this cluster is likely from late morning through the early afternoon hours as it tracks east/southeastward into AR. Despite modest forcing for ascent, a broad swath of moderate to large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) and a fairly organized cold pool may support storms farther east into parts of the lower MS valley with a risk for damaging winds and hail into the evening hours. In the wake of the morning cluster of storms, a trailing outflow boundary is likely to be located somewhere over the southern Plains from central/southern OK into the Panhandle/western north TX. With very rich low-level moisture moving in from central TX (mean W of 16-18 G/kg), modification of this outflow boundary may serve as a focus for additional storm development through the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the mostly zonal flow. This appears especially likely where the boundary could intersect with the dryline over parts of the eastern TX Panhandle, far western OK and western north TX. Model soundings here show very large buoyancy (4500-6000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Should storms form (pending the location of the outflow) large buoyancy and sufficient shear would support a risk for large to very large hail, damaging gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster or MCS may also support a risk for damaging winds downstream into parts of central TX later into the evening. ...Southwest TX... Along the southern portions of the dryline, very hot temperatures 95-105F are likely along with rich boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s F. While large-scale ascent appears rather nebulous, the diurnal dryline circulation and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development near the international border. While modest, 25-30 kt of mid-level flow within the sub-tropical jet may support some organization into isolated supercell structures. While uncertain, a few instances of hail and damaging winds are possible. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southern Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... Within a weak and predominately zonal mid-level flow regime, a complex series of mesoscale features will dictate the potential for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A subtle, convectively enhanced shortwave trough currently over the mid Missouri Valley will move into parts of the upper Midwest by early afternoon. A second remnant MCS appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over the southern/central Plains. The potential outflow from this system may serve as a focus for secondary initiation later in the afternoon across parts of TX and OK. Additional storms are also possible along the dryline in Southwest TX. ...Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley... Rich low-level moisture advection is expected to be ongoing with southerly low-level flow across much of the Midwest ahead of the remnant MCV early this morning. Some clearing should allow diurnal heating to support moderate destabilization ahead of the MCV from eastern IA into southern WI and far northern IL despite relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Weak convergence and some ascent from the convectively enhanced shortwave should allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer shear profiles are not particularly strong (20-30 kt), though some low and mid-level enhancement from the MCV may be enough to support organized multicells and a few transient supercells structures. Damaging wind gusts, hail and a brief tornado or two will be possible. More isolated storms are also possible along a subtle wind shift/ surface pressure trough farther south across parts of eastern MO and western IL. However, confidence in storm development here is low owing to the potential disruption of diurnal heating from cloud debris or remnant convection from the overnight central Plains MCS. Still, a few instances of hail or damaging winds are possible should an organized multicell cluster or two develop. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaMs... Short-term CAM and regional model guidance has come into fairly strong agreement on the presence of an overnight MCS across parts of the central Plains. By 12z convection will most likely be located across parts of southern KS, to as far as northeast OK. Relatively clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection (low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints) will likely be in place ahead of the early morning storms. This, along with numerous CAM solutions, suggests intensification of this cluster is likely from late morning through the early afternoon hours as it tracks east/southeastward into AR. Despite modest forcing for ascent, a broad swath of moderate to large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) and a fairly organized cold pool may support storms farther east into parts of the lower MS valley with a risk for damaging winds and hail into the evening hours. In the wake of the morning cluster of storms, a trailing outflow boundary is likely to be located somewhere over the southern Plains from central/southern OK into the Panhandle/western north TX. With very rich low-level moisture moving in from central TX (mean W of 16-18 G/kg), modification of this outflow boundary may serve as a focus for additional storm development through the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the mostly zonal flow. This appears especially likely where the boundary could intersect with the dryline over parts of the eastern TX Panhandle, far western OK and western north TX. Model soundings here show very large buoyancy (4500-6000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Should storms form (pending the location of the outflow) large buoyancy and sufficient shear would support a risk for large to very large hail, damaging gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster or MCS may also support a risk for damaging winds downstream into parts of central TX later into the evening. ...Southwest TX... Along the southern portions of the dryline, very hot temperatures 95-105F are likely along with rich boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s F. While large-scale ascent appears rather nebulous, the diurnal dryline circulation and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development near the international border. While modest, 25-30 kt of mid-level flow within the sub-tropical jet may support some organization into isolated supercell structures. While uncertain, a few instances of hail and damaging winds are possible. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southern Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... Within a weak and predominately zonal mid-level flow regime, a complex series of mesoscale features will dictate the potential for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A subtle, convectively enhanced shortwave trough currently over the mid Missouri Valley will move into parts of the upper Midwest by early afternoon. A second remnant MCS appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over the southern/central Plains. The potential outflow from this system may serve as a focus for secondary initiation later in the afternoon across parts of TX and OK. Additional storms are also possible along the dryline in Southwest TX. ...Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley... Rich low-level moisture advection is expected to be ongoing with southerly low-level flow across much of the Midwest ahead of the remnant MCV early this morning. Some clearing should allow diurnal heating to support moderate destabilization ahead of the MCV from eastern IA into southern WI and far northern IL despite relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Weak convergence and some ascent from the convectively enhanced shortwave should allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer shear profiles are not particularly strong (20-30 kt), though some low and mid-level enhancement from the MCV may be enough to support organized multicells and a few transient supercells structures. Damaging wind gusts, hail and a brief tornado or two will be possible. More isolated storms are also possible along a subtle wind shift/ surface pressure trough farther south across parts of eastern MO and western IL. However, confidence in storm development here is low owing to the potential disruption of diurnal heating from cloud debris or remnant convection from the overnight central Plains MCS. Still, a few instances of hail or damaging winds are possible should an organized multicell cluster or two develop. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaMs... Short-term CAM and regional model guidance has come into fairly strong agreement on the presence of an overnight MCS across parts of the central Plains. By 12z convection will most likely be located across parts of southern KS, to as far as northeast OK. Relatively clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection (low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints) will likely be in place ahead of the early morning storms. This, along with numerous CAM solutions, suggests intensification of this cluster is likely from late morning through the early afternoon hours as it tracks east/southeastward into AR. Despite modest forcing for ascent, a broad swath of moderate to large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) and a fairly organized cold pool may support storms farther east into parts of the lower MS valley with a risk for damaging winds and hail into the evening hours. In the wake of the morning cluster of storms, a trailing outflow boundary is likely to be located somewhere over the southern Plains from central/southern OK into the Panhandle/western north TX. With very rich low-level moisture moving in from central TX (mean W of 16-18 G/kg), modification of this outflow boundary may serve as a focus for additional storm development through the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the mostly zonal flow. This appears especially likely where the boundary could intersect with the dryline over parts of the eastern TX Panhandle, far western OK and western north TX. Model soundings here show very large buoyancy (4500-6000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Should storms form (pending the location of the outflow) large buoyancy and sufficient shear would support a risk for large to very large hail, damaging gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster or MCS may also support a risk for damaging winds downstream into parts of central TX later into the evening. ...Southwest TX... Along the southern portions of the dryline, very hot temperatures 95-105F are likely along with rich boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s F. While large-scale ascent appears rather nebulous, the diurnal dryline circulation and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development near the international border. While modest, 25-30 kt of mid-level flow within the sub-tropical jet may support some organization into isolated supercell structures. While uncertain, a few instances of hail and damaging winds are possible. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southern Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... Within a weak and predominately zonal mid-level flow regime, a complex series of mesoscale features will dictate the potential for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A subtle, convectively enhanced shortwave trough currently over the mid Missouri Valley will move into parts of the upper Midwest by early afternoon. A second remnant MCS appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over the southern/central Plains. The potential outflow from this system may serve as a focus for secondary initiation later in the afternoon across parts of TX and OK. Additional storms are also possible along the dryline in Southwest TX. ...Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley... Rich low-level moisture advection is expected to be ongoing with southerly low-level flow across much of the Midwest ahead of the remnant MCV early this morning. Some clearing should allow diurnal heating to support moderate destabilization ahead of the MCV from eastern IA into southern WI and far northern IL despite relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Weak convergence and some ascent from the convectively enhanced shortwave should allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer shear profiles are not particularly strong (20-30 kt), though some low and mid-level enhancement from the MCV may be enough to support organized multicells and a few transient supercells structures. Damaging wind gusts, hail and a brief tornado or two will be possible. More isolated storms are also possible along a subtle wind shift/ surface pressure trough farther south across parts of eastern MO and western IL. However, confidence in storm development here is low owing to the potential disruption of diurnal heating from cloud debris or remnant convection from the overnight central Plains MCS. Still, a few instances of hail or damaging winds are possible should an organized multicell cluster or two develop. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaMs... Short-term CAM and regional model guidance has come into fairly strong agreement on the presence of an overnight MCS across parts of the central Plains. By 12z convection will most likely be located across parts of southern KS, to as far as northeast OK. Relatively clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection (low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints) will likely be in place ahead of the early morning storms. This, along with numerous CAM solutions, suggests intensification of this cluster is likely from late morning through the early afternoon hours as it tracks east/southeastward into AR. Despite modest forcing for ascent, a broad swath of moderate to large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) and a fairly organized cold pool may support storms farther east into parts of the lower MS valley with a risk for damaging winds and hail into the evening hours. In the wake of the morning cluster of storms, a trailing outflow boundary is likely to be located somewhere over the southern Plains from central/southern OK into the Panhandle/western north TX. With very rich low-level moisture moving in from central TX (mean W of 16-18 G/kg), modification of this outflow boundary may serve as a focus for additional storm development through the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the mostly zonal flow. This appears especially likely where the boundary could intersect with the dryline over parts of the eastern TX Panhandle, far western OK and western north TX. Model soundings here show very large buoyancy (4500-6000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Should storms form (pending the location of the outflow) large buoyancy and sufficient shear would support a risk for large to very large hail, damaging gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster or MCS may also support a risk for damaging winds downstream into parts of central TX later into the evening. ...Southwest TX... Along the southern portions of the dryline, very hot temperatures 95-105F are likely along with rich boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s F. While large-scale ascent appears rather nebulous, the diurnal dryline circulation and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development near the international border. While modest, 25-30 kt of mid-level flow within the sub-tropical jet may support some organization into isolated supercell structures. While uncertain, a few instances of hail and damaging winds are possible. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southern Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... Within a weak and predominately zonal mid-level flow regime, a complex series of mesoscale features will dictate the potential for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A subtle, convectively enhanced shortwave trough currently over the mid Missouri Valley will move into parts of the upper Midwest by early afternoon. A second remnant MCS appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over the southern/central Plains. The potential outflow from this system may serve as a focus for secondary initiation later in the afternoon across parts of TX and OK. Additional storms are also possible along the dryline in Southwest TX. ...Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley... Rich low-level moisture advection is expected to be ongoing with southerly low-level flow across much of the Midwest ahead of the remnant MCV early this morning. Some clearing should allow diurnal heating to support moderate destabilization ahead of the MCV from eastern IA into southern WI and far northern IL despite relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Weak convergence and some ascent from the convectively enhanced shortwave should allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer shear profiles are not particularly strong (20-30 kt), though some low and mid-level enhancement from the MCV may be enough to support organized multicells and a few transient supercells structures. Damaging wind gusts, hail and a brief tornado or two will be possible. More isolated storms are also possible along a subtle wind shift/ surface pressure trough farther south across parts of eastern MO and western IL. However, confidence in storm development here is low owing to the potential disruption of diurnal heating from cloud debris or remnant convection from the overnight central Plains MCS. Still, a few instances of hail or damaging winds are possible should an organized multicell cluster or two develop. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaMs... Short-term CAM and regional model guidance has come into fairly strong agreement on the presence of an overnight MCS across parts of the central Plains. By 12z convection will most likely be located across parts of southern KS, to as far as northeast OK. Relatively clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection (low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints) will likely be in place ahead of the early morning storms. This, along with numerous CAM solutions, suggests intensification of this cluster is likely from late morning through the early afternoon hours as it tracks east/southeastward into AR. Despite modest forcing for ascent, a broad swath of moderate to large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) and a fairly organized cold pool may support storms farther east into parts of the lower MS valley with a risk for damaging winds and hail into the evening hours. In the wake of the morning cluster of storms, a trailing outflow boundary is likely to be located somewhere over the southern Plains from central/southern OK into the Panhandle/western north TX. With very rich low-level moisture moving in from central TX (mean W of 16-18 G/kg), modification of this outflow boundary may serve as a focus for additional storm development through the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the mostly zonal flow. This appears especially likely where the boundary could intersect with the dryline over parts of the eastern TX Panhandle, far western OK and western north TX. Model soundings here show very large buoyancy (4500-6000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Should storms form (pending the location of the outflow) large buoyancy and sufficient shear would support a risk for large to very large hail, damaging gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster or MCS may also support a risk for damaging winds downstream into parts of central TX later into the evening. ...Southwest TX... Along the southern portions of the dryline, very hot temperatures 95-105F are likely along with rich boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s F. While large-scale ascent appears rather nebulous, the diurnal dryline circulation and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development near the international border. While modest, 25-30 kt of mid-level flow within the sub-tropical jet may support some organization into isolated supercell structures. While uncertain, a few instances of hail and damaging winds are possible. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southern Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... Within a weak and predominately zonal mid-level flow regime, a complex series of mesoscale features will dictate the potential for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A subtle, convectively enhanced shortwave trough currently over the mid Missouri Valley will move into parts of the upper Midwest by early afternoon. A second remnant MCS appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over the southern/central Plains. The potential outflow from this system may serve as a focus for secondary initiation later in the afternoon across parts of TX and OK. Additional storms are also possible along the dryline in Southwest TX. ...Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley... Rich low-level moisture advection is expected to be ongoing with southerly low-level flow across much of the Midwest ahead of the remnant MCV early this morning. Some clearing should allow diurnal heating to support moderate destabilization ahead of the MCV from eastern IA into southern WI and far northern IL despite relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Weak convergence and some ascent from the convectively enhanced shortwave should allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer shear profiles are not particularly strong (20-30 kt), though some low and mid-level enhancement from the MCV may be enough to support organized multicells and a few transient supercells structures. Damaging wind gusts, hail and a brief tornado or two will be possible. More isolated storms are also possible along a subtle wind shift/ surface pressure trough farther south across parts of eastern MO and western IL. However, confidence in storm development here is low owing to the potential disruption of diurnal heating from cloud debris or remnant convection from the overnight central Plains MCS. Still, a few instances of hail or damaging winds are possible should an organized multicell cluster or two develop. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaMs... Short-term CAM and regional model guidance has come into fairly strong agreement on the presence of an overnight MCS across parts of the central Plains. By 12z convection will most likely be located across parts of southern KS, to as far as northeast OK. Relatively clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection (low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints) will likely be in place ahead of the early morning storms. This, along with numerous CAM solutions, suggests intensification of this cluster is likely from late morning through the early afternoon hours as it tracks east/southeastward into AR. Despite modest forcing for ascent, a broad swath of moderate to large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) and a fairly organized cold pool may support storms farther east into parts of the lower MS valley with a risk for damaging winds and hail into the evening hours. In the wake of the morning cluster of storms, a trailing outflow boundary is likely to be located somewhere over the southern Plains from central/southern OK into the Panhandle/western north TX. With very rich low-level moisture moving in from central TX (mean W of 16-18 G/kg), modification of this outflow boundary may serve as a focus for additional storm development through the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the mostly zonal flow. This appears especially likely where the boundary could intersect with the dryline over parts of the eastern TX Panhandle, far western OK and western north TX. Model soundings here show very large buoyancy (4500-6000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Should storms form (pending the location of the outflow) large buoyancy and sufficient shear would support a risk for large to very large hail, damaging gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster or MCS may also support a risk for damaging winds downstream into parts of central TX later into the evening. ...Southwest TX... Along the southern portions of the dryline, very hot temperatures 95-105F are likely along with rich boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s F. While large-scale ascent appears rather nebulous, the diurnal dryline circulation and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development near the international border. While modest, 25-30 kt of mid-level flow within the sub-tropical jet may support some organization into isolated supercell structures. While uncertain, a few instances of hail and damaging winds are possible. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southern Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... Within a weak and predominately zonal mid-level flow regime, a complex series of mesoscale features will dictate the potential for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A subtle, convectively enhanced shortwave trough currently over the mid Missouri Valley will move into parts of the upper Midwest by early afternoon. A second remnant MCS appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over the southern/central Plains. The potential outflow from this system may serve as a focus for secondary initiation later in the afternoon across parts of TX and OK. Additional storms are also possible along the dryline in Southwest TX. ...Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley... Rich low-level moisture advection is expected to be ongoing with southerly low-level flow across much of the Midwest ahead of the remnant MCV early this morning. Some clearing should allow diurnal heating to support moderate destabilization ahead of the MCV from eastern IA into southern WI and far northern IL despite relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Weak convergence and some ascent from the convectively enhanced shortwave should allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer shear profiles are not particularly strong (20-30 kt), though some low and mid-level enhancement from the MCV may be enough to support organized multicells and a few transient supercells structures. Damaging wind gusts, hail and a brief tornado or two will be possible. More isolated storms are also possible along a subtle wind shift/ surface pressure trough farther south across parts of eastern MO and western IL. However, confidence in storm development here is low owing to the potential disruption of diurnal heating from cloud debris or remnant convection from the overnight central Plains MCS. Still, a few instances of hail or damaging winds are possible should an organized multicell cluster or two develop. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaMs... Short-term CAM and regional model guidance has come into fairly strong agreement on the presence of an overnight MCS across parts of the central Plains. By 12z convection will most likely be located across parts of southern KS, to as far as northeast OK. Relatively clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection (low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints) will likely be in place ahead of the early morning storms. This, along with numerous CAM solutions, suggests intensification of this cluster is likely from late morning through the early afternoon hours as it tracks east/southeastward into AR. Despite modest forcing for ascent, a broad swath of moderate to large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) and a fairly organized cold pool may support storms farther east into parts of the lower MS valley with a risk for damaging winds and hail into the evening hours. In the wake of the morning cluster of storms, a trailing outflow boundary is likely to be located somewhere over the southern Plains from central/southern OK into the Panhandle/western north TX. With very rich low-level moisture moving in from central TX (mean W of 16-18 G/kg), modification of this outflow boundary may serve as a focus for additional storm development through the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the mostly zonal flow. This appears especially likely where the boundary could intersect with the dryline over parts of the eastern TX Panhandle, far western OK and western north TX. Model soundings here show very large buoyancy (4500-6000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Should storms form (pending the location of the outflow) large buoyancy and sufficient shear would support a risk for large to very large hail, damaging gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster or MCS may also support a risk for damaging winds downstream into parts of central TX later into the evening. ...Southwest TX... Along the southern portions of the dryline, very hot temperatures 95-105F are likely along with rich boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s F. While large-scale ascent appears rather nebulous, the diurnal dryline circulation and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development near the international border. While modest, 25-30 kt of mid-level flow within the sub-tropical jet may support some organization into isolated supercell structures. While uncertain, a few instances of hail and damaging winds are possible. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southern Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... Within a weak and predominately zonal mid-level flow regime, a complex series of mesoscale features will dictate the potential for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A subtle, convectively enhanced shortwave trough currently over the mid Missouri Valley will move into parts of the upper Midwest by early afternoon. A second remnant MCS appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over the southern/central Plains. The potential outflow from this system may serve as a focus for secondary initiation later in the afternoon across parts of TX and OK. Additional storms are also possible along the dryline in Southwest TX. ...Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley... Rich low-level moisture advection is expected to be ongoing with southerly low-level flow across much of the Midwest ahead of the remnant MCV early this morning. Some clearing should allow diurnal heating to support moderate destabilization ahead of the MCV from eastern IA into southern WI and far northern IL despite relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Weak convergence and some ascent from the convectively enhanced shortwave should allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer shear profiles are not particularly strong (20-30 kt), though some low and mid-level enhancement from the MCV may be enough to support organized multicells and a few transient supercells structures. Damaging wind gusts, hail and a brief tornado or two will be possible. More isolated storms are also possible along a subtle wind shift/ surface pressure trough farther south across parts of eastern MO and western IL. However, confidence in storm development here is low owing to the potential disruption of diurnal heating from cloud debris or remnant convection from the overnight central Plains MCS. Still, a few instances of hail or damaging winds are possible should an organized multicell cluster or two develop. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaMs... Short-term CAM and regional model guidance has come into fairly strong agreement on the presence of an overnight MCS across parts of the central Plains. By 12z convection will most likely be located across parts of southern KS, to as far as northeast OK. Relatively clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection (low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints) will likely be in place ahead of the early morning storms. This, along with numerous CAM solutions, suggests intensification of this cluster is likely from late morning through the early afternoon hours as it tracks east/southeastward into AR. Despite modest forcing for ascent, a broad swath of moderate to large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) and a fairly organized cold pool may support storms farther east into parts of the lower MS valley with a risk for damaging winds and hail into the evening hours. In the wake of the morning cluster of storms, a trailing outflow boundary is likely to be located somewhere over the southern Plains from central/southern OK into the Panhandle/western north TX. With very rich low-level moisture moving in from central TX (mean W of 16-18 G/kg), modification of this outflow boundary may serve as a focus for additional storm development through the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the mostly zonal flow. This appears especially likely where the boundary could intersect with the dryline over parts of the eastern TX Panhandle, far western OK and western north TX. Model soundings here show very large buoyancy (4500-6000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Should storms form (pending the location of the outflow) large buoyancy and sufficient shear would support a risk for large to very large hail, damaging gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster or MCS may also support a risk for damaging winds downstream into parts of central TX later into the evening. ...Southwest TX... Along the southern portions of the dryline, very hot temperatures 95-105F are likely along with rich boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s F. While large-scale ascent appears rather nebulous, the diurnal dryline circulation and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm development near the international border. While modest, 25-30 kt of mid-level flow within the sub-tropical jet may support some organization into isolated supercell structures. While uncertain, a few instances of hail and damaging winds are possible. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/03/2024 Read more

MD 1145 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 380... FOR EAST TEXAS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1145 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Areas affected...East Texas...Central and Northern Louisiana...Far Southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380... Valid 030422Z - 030615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat should continue for another hour or two across parts of east Texas and central to northern Louisiana. The threat is expected to be too marginal for watch issuance downstream from the current watch. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a linear MCS from parts of the east Texas into western and northern Louisiana. RAP analysis has moderate instability located ahead of the line across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 15000 to 2500 J/kg range. This, along with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F, should be sufficient for isolated damaging wind gusts. However, weakening instability ahead of the line should continue to result in a downtrend concerning convective intensity. ..Broyles.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 32659171 33189197 33369239 33249285 32519296 32129309 31939341 31809409 31859477 31669526 31059518 30849465 30809348 31049244 31399200 31909176 32659171 Read more

MD 1144 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382... FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...North-central Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 382... Valid 030333Z - 030530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 382 continues. SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts will be possible over the next couple of hours across parts of southeast Nebraska and north-central Kansas. Any severe threat should be marginal. Given current trends, a downstream watch appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a linear MCS over southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas. This convective line is forecast to move southeastward into northeast Kansas and far southeast Kansas over the next few hours. Although RAP analysis shows moderate instability present ahead of the line, forecast soundings show weak deep-layer shear and lapse rates. For this reason, any severe threat is expected to remain marginal. A few strong wind gusts will be possible along or near the leading edge of the line, but the threat is expected to remain very isolated. ..Broyles.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 41109834 40479862 39599934 39229929 38989897 38839820 38889737 39309658 40009627 40969655 41569729 41599797 41429828 41109834 Read more

WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TYR TO 35 SW SHV TO 20 ENE SHV. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC139-030540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION LAC013-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-073-081-085-111-127-030540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WINN TXC005-073-347-403-405-419-030540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TYR TO 35 SW SHV TO 20 ENE SHV. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC139-030540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION LAC013-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-073-081-085-111-127-030540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WINN TXC005-073-347-403-405-419-030540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TYR TO 35 SW SHV TO 20 ENE SHV. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC139-030540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION LAC013-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-073-081-085-111-127-030540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WINN TXC005-073-347-403-405-419-030540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TYR TO 35 SW SHV TO 20 ENE SHV. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC139-030540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION LAC013-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-073-081-085-111-127-030540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WINN TXC005-073-347-403-405-419-030540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TYR TO 35 SW SHV TO 20 ENE SHV. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC139-030540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION LAC013-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-073-081-085-111-127-030540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WINN TXC005-073-347-403-405-419-030540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TYR TO 35 SW SHV TO 20 ENE SHV. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC139-030540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION LAC013-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-073-081-085-111-127-030540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WINN TXC005-073-347-403-405-419-030540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 380 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 022240Z - 030500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 380 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Northwest Louisiana Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 540 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will track southeastward across the watch area through the evening, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Longview TX to 15 miles east northeast of Shreveport LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 373...WW 374...WW 375...WW 376...WW 377...WW 378...WW 379... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0382 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 382 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE RSL TO 40 ESE HSI TO 25 SW OLU TO 25 WSW OFK. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 382 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC123-030540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MITCHELL NEC059-099-143-169-185-030540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FILLMORE KEARNEY POLK THAYER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0382 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 382 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE RSL TO 40 ESE HSI TO 25 SW OLU TO 25 WSW OFK. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 382 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC123-030540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MITCHELL NEC059-099-143-169-185-030540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FILLMORE KEARNEY POLK THAYER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0382 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 382 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE RSL TO 40 ESE HSI TO 25 SW OLU TO 25 WSW OFK. ..BROYLES..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 382 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC123-030540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MITCHELL NEC059-099-143-169-185-030540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FILLMORE KEARNEY POLK THAYER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more