Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update was to increase severe probabilities across the Arklatex region. ..Arklatex.. Low-level moisture continues to quickly advect northward into the region, with a resulting increase in buoyancy as well. Recent surface analysis places a weak low over far southeast OK, with modest troughing extending southwestward from this low. An effective warm front also extends southeastward from this low, coincident with the leading edge of the better low-level moisture. Interaction of these surface features with the destabilizing airmass could result in thunderstorm development. Vertical shear is strong enough to support organized storm structures, and a few storms may be able to produce hail and/or damaging as well as a brief tornado. ...Elsewhere... Forecast outlined in the previous outlook (appended below) remains valid for South TX, where supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts are ongoing. These will likely continue for the next few hours while slowly progressing southward. Also, as discussed in the previous outlook and recently issued MD #640, the potential for isolated damaging gust will persist across the Upper OH Valley into the early evening. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update was to increase severe probabilities across the Arklatex region. ..Arklatex.. Low-level moisture continues to quickly advect northward into the region, with a resulting increase in buoyancy as well. Recent surface analysis places a weak low over far southeast OK, with modest troughing extending southwestward from this low. An effective warm front also extends southeastward from this low, coincident with the leading edge of the better low-level moisture. Interaction of these surface features with the destabilizing airmass could result in thunderstorm development. Vertical shear is strong enough to support organized storm structures, and a few storms may be able to produce hail and/or damaging as well as a brief tornado. ...Elsewhere... Forecast outlined in the previous outlook (appended below) remains valid for South TX, where supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts are ongoing. These will likely continue for the next few hours while slowly progressing southward. Also, as discussed in the previous outlook and recently issued MD #640, the potential for isolated damaging gust will persist across the Upper OH Valley into the early evening. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update was to increase severe probabilities across the Arklatex region. ..Arklatex.. Low-level moisture continues to quickly advect northward into the region, with a resulting increase in buoyancy as well. Recent surface analysis places a weak low over far southeast OK, with modest troughing extending southwestward from this low. An effective warm front also extends southeastward from this low, coincident with the leading edge of the better low-level moisture. Interaction of these surface features with the destabilizing airmass could result in thunderstorm development. Vertical shear is strong enough to support organized storm structures, and a few storms may be able to produce hail and/or damaging as well as a brief tornado. ...Elsewhere... Forecast outlined in the previous outlook (appended below) remains valid for South TX, where supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts are ongoing. These will likely continue for the next few hours while slowly progressing southward. Also, as discussed in the previous outlook and recently issued MD #640, the potential for isolated damaging gust will persist across the Upper OH Valley into the early evening. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update was to increase severe probabilities across the Arklatex region. ..Arklatex.. Low-level moisture continues to quickly advect northward into the region, with a resulting increase in buoyancy as well. Recent surface analysis places a weak low over far southeast OK, with modest troughing extending southwestward from this low. An effective warm front also extends southeastward from this low, coincident with the leading edge of the better low-level moisture. Interaction of these surface features with the destabilizing airmass could result in thunderstorm development. Vertical shear is strong enough to support organized storm structures, and a few storms may be able to produce hail and/or damaging as well as a brief tornado. ...Elsewhere... Forecast outlined in the previous outlook (appended below) remains valid for South TX, where supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts are ongoing. These will likely continue for the next few hours while slowly progressing southward. Also, as discussed in the previous outlook and recently issued MD #640, the potential for isolated damaging gust will persist across the Upper OH Valley into the early evening. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update was to increase severe probabilities across the Arklatex region. ..Arklatex.. Low-level moisture continues to quickly advect northward into the region, with a resulting increase in buoyancy as well. Recent surface analysis places a weak low over far southeast OK, with modest troughing extending southwestward from this low. An effective warm front also extends southeastward from this low, coincident with the leading edge of the better low-level moisture. Interaction of these surface features with the destabilizing airmass could result in thunderstorm development. Vertical shear is strong enough to support organized storm structures, and a few storms may be able to produce hail and/or damaging as well as a brief tornado. ...Elsewhere... Forecast outlined in the previous outlook (appended below) remains valid for South TX, where supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts are ongoing. These will likely continue for the next few hours while slowly progressing southward. Also, as discussed in the previous outlook and recently issued MD #640, the potential for isolated damaging gust will persist across the Upper OH Valley into the early evening. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update was to increase severe probabilities across the Arklatex region. ..Arklatex.. Low-level moisture continues to quickly advect northward into the region, with a resulting increase in buoyancy as well. Recent surface analysis places a weak low over far southeast OK, with modest troughing extending southwestward from this low. An effective warm front also extends southeastward from this low, coincident with the leading edge of the better low-level moisture. Interaction of these surface features with the destabilizing airmass could result in thunderstorm development. Vertical shear is strong enough to support organized storm structures, and a few storms may be able to produce hail and/or damaging as well as a brief tornado. ...Elsewhere... Forecast outlined in the previous outlook (appended below) remains valid for South TX, where supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts are ongoing. These will likely continue for the next few hours while slowly progressing southward. Also, as discussed in the previous outlook and recently issued MD #640, the potential for isolated damaging gust will persist across the Upper OH Valley into the early evening. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update was to increase severe probabilities across the Arklatex region. ..Arklatex.. Low-level moisture continues to quickly advect northward into the region, with a resulting increase in buoyancy as well. Recent surface analysis places a weak low over far southeast OK, with modest troughing extending southwestward from this low. An effective warm front also extends southeastward from this low, coincident with the leading edge of the better low-level moisture. Interaction of these surface features with the destabilizing airmass could result in thunderstorm development. Vertical shear is strong enough to support organized storm structures, and a few storms may be able to produce hail and/or damaging as well as a brief tornado. ...Elsewhere... Forecast outlined in the previous outlook (appended below) remains valid for South TX, where supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts are ongoing. These will likely continue for the next few hours while slowly progressing southward. Also, as discussed in the previous outlook and recently issued MD #640, the potential for isolated damaging gust will persist across the Upper OH Valley into the early evening. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update was to increase severe probabilities across the Arklatex region. ..Arklatex.. Low-level moisture continues to quickly advect northward into the region, with a resulting increase in buoyancy as well. Recent surface analysis places a weak low over far southeast OK, with modest troughing extending southwestward from this low. An effective warm front also extends southeastward from this low, coincident with the leading edge of the better low-level moisture. Interaction of these surface features with the destabilizing airmass could result in thunderstorm development. Vertical shear is strong enough to support organized storm structures, and a few storms may be able to produce hail and/or damaging as well as a brief tornado. ...Elsewhere... Forecast outlined in the previous outlook (appended below) remains valid for South TX, where supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts are ongoing. These will likely continue for the next few hours while slowly progressing southward. Also, as discussed in the previous outlook and recently issued MD #640, the potential for isolated damaging gust will persist across the Upper OH Valley into the early evening. ..Mosier.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. Read more

MD 0640 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN OH...WESTERN PA...NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0640 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Areas affected...Central/eastern OH...western PA...northern WV Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051712Z - 051945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible this afternoon. Isolated damaging wind is expected to be the primary threat, along with hail approaching severe limits. DISCUSSION...A couple of storms have recently developed along a cold front across northeast OH. Modest heating of a relatively moist environment will support moderate destabilization (MLCAPE generally 1000-1500 J/kg) along/ahead of the cold front this afternoon. While stronger ascent associated with a shortwave trough over parts of Ontario and Quebec will stay north of the region, weakening CINH will support some increase in storm coverage with time. With only modest midlevel flow across the region, effective shear is expected to remain relatively weak (generally 20-25 kt), and storms will likely struggle to become organized. However, a few stronger multicells could eventually evolve with time. Locally gusty winds will be possible with the stronger cells, especially where stronger heating occurs this afternoon. Also, despite the weak deep-layer shear, moderate buoyancy and relatively cool temperatures aloft will support potential for small to near-severe hail. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 39808335 40328271 41408140 42028042 42048025 41757947 41057895 40147930 39808013 39518163 39368262 39408287 39808335 Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..05/05/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-025-029-055-089-091-123-127-149-163-175-177-187-239-255- 271-283-285-297-311-323-325-463-469-481-493-507-052040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BEE BEXAR CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT FAYETTE FRIO GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE JACKSON KARNES KINNEY LA SALLE LAVACA LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MAVERICK MEDINA UVALDE VICTORIA WHARTON WILSON ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0639 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0639 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Areas affected...South-central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051702Z - 051900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing convection should intensify across parts of south-central Texas at some point this afternoon. Primary threat should be from large hail between 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter. Localized severe wind gusts and a brief tornado will also be possible. Timing of severe storms beyond isolated coverage is somewhat uncertain. DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection exists from Maverick to Fayette counties in south-central TX and separately along the Middle TX coast. Ascent tied to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse that is moving northeast and recently crossed the Rio Grande will be maximized over the next few hours. Sufficient cloud breaks have yielded temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s within the very richly moist boundary layer ahead of the ongoing storms. This will support a continued plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg, despite mid-level warming being well-progged to occur in the wake of the shortwave impulse as it moves across the area. Pronounced veering of the low-level wind profile with height will also compensate for modest lower-level speeds and should support at least transient supercell structures, with a primary hazard of isolated large hail. Given the buoyancy profile, a supercell or two may be longer-lasting, albeit slow-moving to the southeast, as seemingly simulated by late morning HRRR and 12Z NSSL-MPAS guidance. The less-than-ideal timing of large-scale ascent does render uncertainty over the degree of severe storm coverage, as well as longevity, especially towards early evening. ..Grams/Smith.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29099911 29589773 29669703 29169629 28759612 28359650 28019716 27849790 27799917 28049979 28610028 29099911 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track (as outlined below) with only minor adjustments required to account for trends in recent high-res guidance as well as rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours across portions of western TX and far southwest KS. The Elevated risk area was extended northward into portions of southeast CO/southwest KS, and elevated fire weather conditions appear likely even further north along the central to northern High Plains of CO and WY. However, latest analyses suggests fuels are not as dry with northward extent, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire-weather pattern will continue on D2/Monday as a powerful mid-level trough ejects through the Central Plains. Associated dry, windy conditions to the west of a dryline will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across central/eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. By peak heating on Tuesday afternoon, the mid-level trough is expected to become negatively tilted and centered from eastern MT southeastward through central NE/KS. Upstream of the trough axis, a belt of 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level flow is expected from northeastern AZ through the TX/OK Panhandles. Downward momentum mixing, in conjunction with a tightening surface pressure gradient and strong isallobaric flow, will yield persistent and strong surface flow around 20-30 mph during the afternoon and evening. Very dry conditions are also anticipated, with relative humidities as low as 5-10 percent. As a result, high confidence exists in critical meteorological fire-weather conditions across the delineated area. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible, but a few factors preclude highlighting a specific area, including: 1. local fuel state due to bands of wetting precipitation from thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday morning, and, 2. whether sustained surface winds will meet extremely critical conditions (30+ mph) for an extended period of time. Elevated/critical meteorological fire-weather conditions will likely develop to the northeast (e.g., southeastern CO and southwestern KS) and east (e.g., eastern TX/OK Panhandles) of the delineated areas as the dryline mixes eastward on Monday. However, much of these areas received around 0.5+ inches of precipitation recently, which should temper the fire-weather threat immediately behind the dryline. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track (as outlined below) with only minor adjustments required to account for trends in recent high-res guidance as well as rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours across portions of western TX and far southwest KS. The Elevated risk area was extended northward into portions of southeast CO/southwest KS, and elevated fire weather conditions appear likely even further north along the central to northern High Plains of CO and WY. However, latest analyses suggests fuels are not as dry with northward extent, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire-weather pattern will continue on D2/Monday as a powerful mid-level trough ejects through the Central Plains. Associated dry, windy conditions to the west of a dryline will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across central/eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. By peak heating on Tuesday afternoon, the mid-level trough is expected to become negatively tilted and centered from eastern MT southeastward through central NE/KS. Upstream of the trough axis, a belt of 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level flow is expected from northeastern AZ through the TX/OK Panhandles. Downward momentum mixing, in conjunction with a tightening surface pressure gradient and strong isallobaric flow, will yield persistent and strong surface flow around 20-30 mph during the afternoon and evening. Very dry conditions are also anticipated, with relative humidities as low as 5-10 percent. As a result, high confidence exists in critical meteorological fire-weather conditions across the delineated area. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible, but a few factors preclude highlighting a specific area, including: 1. local fuel state due to bands of wetting precipitation from thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday morning, and, 2. whether sustained surface winds will meet extremely critical conditions (30+ mph) for an extended period of time. Elevated/critical meteorological fire-weather conditions will likely develop to the northeast (e.g., southeastern CO and southwestern KS) and east (e.g., eastern TX/OK Panhandles) of the delineated areas as the dryline mixes eastward on Monday. However, much of these areas received around 0.5+ inches of precipitation recently, which should temper the fire-weather threat immediately behind the dryline. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track (as outlined below) with only minor adjustments required to account for trends in recent high-res guidance as well as rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours across portions of western TX and far southwest KS. The Elevated risk area was extended northward into portions of southeast CO/southwest KS, and elevated fire weather conditions appear likely even further north along the central to northern High Plains of CO and WY. However, latest analyses suggests fuels are not as dry with northward extent, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire-weather pattern will continue on D2/Monday as a powerful mid-level trough ejects through the Central Plains. Associated dry, windy conditions to the west of a dryline will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across central/eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. By peak heating on Tuesday afternoon, the mid-level trough is expected to become negatively tilted and centered from eastern MT southeastward through central NE/KS. Upstream of the trough axis, a belt of 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level flow is expected from northeastern AZ through the TX/OK Panhandles. Downward momentum mixing, in conjunction with a tightening surface pressure gradient and strong isallobaric flow, will yield persistent and strong surface flow around 20-30 mph during the afternoon and evening. Very dry conditions are also anticipated, with relative humidities as low as 5-10 percent. As a result, high confidence exists in critical meteorological fire-weather conditions across the delineated area. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible, but a few factors preclude highlighting a specific area, including: 1. local fuel state due to bands of wetting precipitation from thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday morning, and, 2. whether sustained surface winds will meet extremely critical conditions (30+ mph) for an extended period of time. Elevated/critical meteorological fire-weather conditions will likely develop to the northeast (e.g., southeastern CO and southwestern KS) and east (e.g., eastern TX/OK Panhandles) of the delineated areas as the dryline mixes eastward on Monday. However, much of these areas received around 0.5+ inches of precipitation recently, which should temper the fire-weather threat immediately behind the dryline. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track (as outlined below) with only minor adjustments required to account for trends in recent high-res guidance as well as rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours across portions of western TX and far southwest KS. The Elevated risk area was extended northward into portions of southeast CO/southwest KS, and elevated fire weather conditions appear likely even further north along the central to northern High Plains of CO and WY. However, latest analyses suggests fuels are not as dry with northward extent, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire-weather pattern will continue on D2/Monday as a powerful mid-level trough ejects through the Central Plains. Associated dry, windy conditions to the west of a dryline will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across central/eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. By peak heating on Tuesday afternoon, the mid-level trough is expected to become negatively tilted and centered from eastern MT southeastward through central NE/KS. Upstream of the trough axis, a belt of 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level flow is expected from northeastern AZ through the TX/OK Panhandles. Downward momentum mixing, in conjunction with a tightening surface pressure gradient and strong isallobaric flow, will yield persistent and strong surface flow around 20-30 mph during the afternoon and evening. Very dry conditions are also anticipated, with relative humidities as low as 5-10 percent. As a result, high confidence exists in critical meteorological fire-weather conditions across the delineated area. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible, but a few factors preclude highlighting a specific area, including: 1. local fuel state due to bands of wetting precipitation from thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday morning, and, 2. whether sustained surface winds will meet extremely critical conditions (30+ mph) for an extended period of time. Elevated/critical meteorological fire-weather conditions will likely develop to the northeast (e.g., southeastern CO and southwestern KS) and east (e.g., eastern TX/OK Panhandles) of the delineated areas as the dryline mixes eastward on Monday. However, much of these areas received around 0.5+ inches of precipitation recently, which should temper the fire-weather threat immediately behind the dryline. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track (as outlined below) with only minor adjustments required to account for trends in recent high-res guidance as well as rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours across portions of western TX and far southwest KS. The Elevated risk area was extended northward into portions of southeast CO/southwest KS, and elevated fire weather conditions appear likely even further north along the central to northern High Plains of CO and WY. However, latest analyses suggests fuels are not as dry with northward extent, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire-weather pattern will continue on D2/Monday as a powerful mid-level trough ejects through the Central Plains. Associated dry, windy conditions to the west of a dryline will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across central/eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. By peak heating on Tuesday afternoon, the mid-level trough is expected to become negatively tilted and centered from eastern MT southeastward through central NE/KS. Upstream of the trough axis, a belt of 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level flow is expected from northeastern AZ through the TX/OK Panhandles. Downward momentum mixing, in conjunction with a tightening surface pressure gradient and strong isallobaric flow, will yield persistent and strong surface flow around 20-30 mph during the afternoon and evening. Very dry conditions are also anticipated, with relative humidities as low as 5-10 percent. As a result, high confidence exists in critical meteorological fire-weather conditions across the delineated area. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible, but a few factors preclude highlighting a specific area, including: 1. local fuel state due to bands of wetting precipitation from thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday morning, and, 2. whether sustained surface winds will meet extremely critical conditions (30+ mph) for an extended period of time. Elevated/critical meteorological fire-weather conditions will likely develop to the northeast (e.g., southeastern CO and southwestern KS) and east (e.g., eastern TX/OK Panhandles) of the delineated areas as the dryline mixes eastward on Monday. However, much of these areas received around 0.5+ inches of precipitation recently, which should temper the fire-weather threat immediately behind the dryline. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track (as outlined below) with only minor adjustments required to account for trends in recent high-res guidance as well as rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours across portions of western TX and far southwest KS. The Elevated risk area was extended northward into portions of southeast CO/southwest KS, and elevated fire weather conditions appear likely even further north along the central to northern High Plains of CO and WY. However, latest analyses suggests fuels are not as dry with northward extent, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire-weather pattern will continue on D2/Monday as a powerful mid-level trough ejects through the Central Plains. Associated dry, windy conditions to the west of a dryline will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across central/eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. By peak heating on Tuesday afternoon, the mid-level trough is expected to become negatively tilted and centered from eastern MT southeastward through central NE/KS. Upstream of the trough axis, a belt of 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level flow is expected from northeastern AZ through the TX/OK Panhandles. Downward momentum mixing, in conjunction with a tightening surface pressure gradient and strong isallobaric flow, will yield persistent and strong surface flow around 20-30 mph during the afternoon and evening. Very dry conditions are also anticipated, with relative humidities as low as 5-10 percent. As a result, high confidence exists in critical meteorological fire-weather conditions across the delineated area. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible, but a few factors preclude highlighting a specific area, including: 1. local fuel state due to bands of wetting precipitation from thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday morning, and, 2. whether sustained surface winds will meet extremely critical conditions (30+ mph) for an extended period of time. Elevated/critical meteorological fire-weather conditions will likely develop to the northeast (e.g., southeastern CO and southwestern KS) and east (e.g., eastern TX/OK Panhandles) of the delineated areas as the dryline mixes eastward on Monday. However, much of these areas received around 0.5+ inches of precipitation recently, which should temper the fire-weather threat immediately behind the dryline. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track (as outlined below) with only minor adjustments required to account for trends in recent high-res guidance as well as rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours across portions of western TX and far southwest KS. The Elevated risk area was extended northward into portions of southeast CO/southwest KS, and elevated fire weather conditions appear likely even further north along the central to northern High Plains of CO and WY. However, latest analyses suggests fuels are not as dry with northward extent, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire-weather pattern will continue on D2/Monday as a powerful mid-level trough ejects through the Central Plains. Associated dry, windy conditions to the west of a dryline will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across central/eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. By peak heating on Tuesday afternoon, the mid-level trough is expected to become negatively tilted and centered from eastern MT southeastward through central NE/KS. Upstream of the trough axis, a belt of 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level flow is expected from northeastern AZ through the TX/OK Panhandles. Downward momentum mixing, in conjunction with a tightening surface pressure gradient and strong isallobaric flow, will yield persistent and strong surface flow around 20-30 mph during the afternoon and evening. Very dry conditions are also anticipated, with relative humidities as low as 5-10 percent. As a result, high confidence exists in critical meteorological fire-weather conditions across the delineated area. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible, but a few factors preclude highlighting a specific area, including: 1. local fuel state due to bands of wetting precipitation from thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday morning, and, 2. whether sustained surface winds will meet extremely critical conditions (30+ mph) for an extended period of time. Elevated/critical meteorological fire-weather conditions will likely develop to the northeast (e.g., southeastern CO and southwestern KS) and east (e.g., eastern TX/OK Panhandles) of the delineated areas as the dryline mixes eastward on Monday. However, much of these areas received around 0.5+ inches of precipitation recently, which should temper the fire-weather threat immediately behind the dryline. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track (as outlined below) with only minor adjustments required to account for trends in recent high-res guidance as well as rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours across portions of western TX and far southwest KS. The Elevated risk area was extended northward into portions of southeast CO/southwest KS, and elevated fire weather conditions appear likely even further north along the central to northern High Plains of CO and WY. However, latest analyses suggests fuels are not as dry with northward extent, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire-weather pattern will continue on D2/Monday as a powerful mid-level trough ejects through the Central Plains. Associated dry, windy conditions to the west of a dryline will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across central/eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. By peak heating on Tuesday afternoon, the mid-level trough is expected to become negatively tilted and centered from eastern MT southeastward through central NE/KS. Upstream of the trough axis, a belt of 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level flow is expected from northeastern AZ through the TX/OK Panhandles. Downward momentum mixing, in conjunction with a tightening surface pressure gradient and strong isallobaric flow, will yield persistent and strong surface flow around 20-30 mph during the afternoon and evening. Very dry conditions are also anticipated, with relative humidities as low as 5-10 percent. As a result, high confidence exists in critical meteorological fire-weather conditions across the delineated area. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible, but a few factors preclude highlighting a specific area, including: 1. local fuel state due to bands of wetting precipitation from thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday morning, and, 2. whether sustained surface winds will meet extremely critical conditions (30+ mph) for an extended period of time. Elevated/critical meteorological fire-weather conditions will likely develop to the northeast (e.g., southeastern CO and southwestern KS) and east (e.g., eastern TX/OK Panhandles) of the delineated areas as the dryline mixes eastward on Monday. However, much of these areas received around 0.5+ inches of precipitation recently, which should temper the fire-weather threat immediately behind the dryline. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track (as outlined below) with only minor adjustments required to account for trends in recent high-res guidance as well as rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours across portions of western TX and far southwest KS. The Elevated risk area was extended northward into portions of southeast CO/southwest KS, and elevated fire weather conditions appear likely even further north along the central to northern High Plains of CO and WY. However, latest analyses suggests fuels are not as dry with northward extent, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire-weather pattern will continue on D2/Monday as a powerful mid-level trough ejects through the Central Plains. Associated dry, windy conditions to the west of a dryline will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across central/eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. By peak heating on Tuesday afternoon, the mid-level trough is expected to become negatively tilted and centered from eastern MT southeastward through central NE/KS. Upstream of the trough axis, a belt of 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level flow is expected from northeastern AZ through the TX/OK Panhandles. Downward momentum mixing, in conjunction with a tightening surface pressure gradient and strong isallobaric flow, will yield persistent and strong surface flow around 20-30 mph during the afternoon and evening. Very dry conditions are also anticipated, with relative humidities as low as 5-10 percent. As a result, high confidence exists in critical meteorological fire-weather conditions across the delineated area. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible, but a few factors preclude highlighting a specific area, including: 1. local fuel state due to bands of wetting precipitation from thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday morning, and, 2. whether sustained surface winds will meet extremely critical conditions (30+ mph) for an extended period of time. Elevated/critical meteorological fire-weather conditions will likely develop to the northeast (e.g., southeastern CO and southwestern KS) and east (e.g., eastern TX/OK Panhandles) of the delineated areas as the dryline mixes eastward on Monday. However, much of these areas received around 0.5+ inches of precipitation recently, which should temper the fire-weather threat immediately behind the dryline. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more