Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, parts of southern and coastal Texas, and southern Mississippi. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes/mid MS Valley with the primary vorticity lobe rotating northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes through the early evening. A blocking pattern located over the Northeast into Quebec will weaken as a mid-level speed max moves quickly from the western Dakotas southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will arc southeastward into the Great Lakes from an occluded low over Manitoba/western Ontario. The trailing portion of the front will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, while the convectively augmented effective front stalls over the northwest Gulf Coast states. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther southeast over the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, ascent associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes mid-level disturbance will aid in storm development this afternoon as heating weakens convective inhibition. Relatively moist low levels (surface dewpoints 65-70 deg F) will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, will favor mostly strong to locally severe multicells. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are the primary hazards. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA/MS... Remnant MCS will continue to push southward through the middle TX coast through early afternoon and offshore the southwest LA coast. Several observation sites late this morning recorded strong gusts (40-45 kt) but the overall displacement of the gust front from the thunderstorm cores will likely limit gust potential. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. Farther east over LA/MS, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the residual outflow. An isolated hail/wind threat may develop with the stronger storms as one or two clusters develops by mid-late afternoon and early evening. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist this afternoon over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. The latest forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, parts of southern and coastal Texas, and southern Mississippi. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes/mid MS Valley with the primary vorticity lobe rotating northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes through the early evening. A blocking pattern located over the Northeast into Quebec will weaken as a mid-level speed max moves quickly from the western Dakotas southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will arc southeastward into the Great Lakes from an occluded low over Manitoba/western Ontario. The trailing portion of the front will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, while the convectively augmented effective front stalls over the northwest Gulf Coast states. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther southeast over the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, ascent associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes mid-level disturbance will aid in storm development this afternoon as heating weakens convective inhibition. Relatively moist low levels (surface dewpoints 65-70 deg F) will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, will favor mostly strong to locally severe multicells. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are the primary hazards. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA/MS... Remnant MCS will continue to push southward through the middle TX coast through early afternoon and offshore the southwest LA coast. Several observation sites late this morning recorded strong gusts (40-45 kt) but the overall displacement of the gust front from the thunderstorm cores will likely limit gust potential. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. Farther east over LA/MS, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the residual outflow. An isolated hail/wind threat may develop with the stronger storms as one or two clusters develops by mid-late afternoon and early evening. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist this afternoon over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. The latest forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast of limited meteorological fire spread conditions remains on track. In addition to the details of the discussion below, a few thunderstorms are expected across the southern Florida peninsula later this afternoon. This is where fuels remain highly receptive, especially in and around the Big Cypress National Reserve, and any lightning strikes away from substantial precipitation cores could potentially result in ignition. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast of limited meteorological fire spread conditions remains on track. In addition to the details of the discussion below, a few thunderstorms are expected across the southern Florida peninsula later this afternoon. This is where fuels remain highly receptive, especially in and around the Big Cypress National Reserve, and any lightning strikes away from substantial precipitation cores could potentially result in ignition. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast of limited meteorological fire spread conditions remains on track. In addition to the details of the discussion below, a few thunderstorms are expected across the southern Florida peninsula later this afternoon. This is where fuels remain highly receptive, especially in and around the Big Cypress National Reserve, and any lightning strikes away from substantial precipitation cores could potentially result in ignition. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast of limited meteorological fire spread conditions remains on track. In addition to the details of the discussion below, a few thunderstorms are expected across the southern Florida peninsula later this afternoon. This is where fuels remain highly receptive, especially in and around the Big Cypress National Reserve, and any lightning strikes away from substantial precipitation cores could potentially result in ignition. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast of limited meteorological fire spread conditions remains on track. In addition to the details of the discussion below, a few thunderstorms are expected across the southern Florida peninsula later this afternoon. This is where fuels remain highly receptive, especially in and around the Big Cypress National Reserve, and any lightning strikes away from substantial precipitation cores could potentially result in ignition. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast of limited meteorological fire spread conditions remains on track. In addition to the details of the discussion below, a few thunderstorms are expected across the southern Florida peninsula later this afternoon. This is where fuels remain highly receptive, especially in and around the Big Cypress National Reserve, and any lightning strikes away from substantial precipitation cores could potentially result in ignition. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast of limited meteorological fire spread conditions remains on track. In addition to the details of the discussion below, a few thunderstorms are expected across the southern Florida peninsula later this afternoon. This is where fuels remain highly receptive, especially in and around the Big Cypress National Reserve, and any lightning strikes away from substantial precipitation cores could potentially result in ignition. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast of limited meteorological fire spread conditions remains on track. In addition to the details of the discussion below, a few thunderstorms are expected across the southern Florida peninsula later this afternoon. This is where fuels remain highly receptive, especially in and around the Big Cypress National Reserve, and any lightning strikes away from substantial precipitation cores could potentially result in ignition. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast of limited meteorological fire spread conditions remains on track. In addition to the details of the discussion below, a few thunderstorms are expected across the southern Florida peninsula later this afternoon. This is where fuels remain highly receptive, especially in and around the Big Cypress National Reserve, and any lightning strikes away from substantial precipitation cores could potentially result in ignition. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MN/WI...LOWER MI/IN/OH...NORTHERN VA/MD...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ME...AND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the southern Mississippi. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Gradual pattern amplification is underway, with rising heights over the Rockies and a deepening, downstream trough from MB to the upper Great Lakes. A primary shortwave trough will dig southeastward from ND to WI by tonight, accompanied by cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates below the 500 mb pressure level. Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther east, a lead shortwave trough will move generally eastward from IA/WI toward Lower MI and northwest OH by this afternoon. An associated, weak surface trough/cold front will accompany the midlevel trough into the OH Valley, which will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Pockets of surface heating will boost afternoon temperatures to near 80 F with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s, which will support MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. However, deep-layer vertical shear will remain rather modest (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, which suggests that isolated wind damage with multicell clusters will be the main threat. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA today... An overnight MCS continues to move southeastward into east TX and LA, though weak vertical shear has led to a cold pool dominated system with the deeper convection trailing well north of gust front. This MCS will likely continue to the northwest Gulf coast by late morning and offshore by early afternoon. There will be some potential for isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts, especially if there is any temporary/diurnal strengthening of the storms. However, the overall environment and convective structure suggest that any wind threat should remain marginal. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist today over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MN/WI...LOWER MI/IN/OH...NORTHERN VA/MD...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ME...AND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the southern Mississippi. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Gradual pattern amplification is underway, with rising heights over the Rockies and a deepening, downstream trough from MB to the upper Great Lakes. A primary shortwave trough will dig southeastward from ND to WI by tonight, accompanied by cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates below the 500 mb pressure level. Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther east, a lead shortwave trough will move generally eastward from IA/WI toward Lower MI and northwest OH by this afternoon. An associated, weak surface trough/cold front will accompany the midlevel trough into the OH Valley, which will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Pockets of surface heating will boost afternoon temperatures to near 80 F with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s, which will support MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. However, deep-layer vertical shear will remain rather modest (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, which suggests that isolated wind damage with multicell clusters will be the main threat. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA today... An overnight MCS continues to move southeastward into east TX and LA, though weak vertical shear has led to a cold pool dominated system with the deeper convection trailing well north of gust front. This MCS will likely continue to the northwest Gulf coast by late morning and offshore by early afternoon. There will be some potential for isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts, especially if there is any temporary/diurnal strengthening of the storms. However, the overall environment and convective structure suggest that any wind threat should remain marginal. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist today over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MN/WI...LOWER MI/IN/OH...NORTHERN VA/MD...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ME...AND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the southern Mississippi. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Gradual pattern amplification is underway, with rising heights over the Rockies and a deepening, downstream trough from MB to the upper Great Lakes. A primary shortwave trough will dig southeastward from ND to WI by tonight, accompanied by cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates below the 500 mb pressure level. Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther east, a lead shortwave trough will move generally eastward from IA/WI toward Lower MI and northwest OH by this afternoon. An associated, weak surface trough/cold front will accompany the midlevel trough into the OH Valley, which will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Pockets of surface heating will boost afternoon temperatures to near 80 F with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s, which will support MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. However, deep-layer vertical shear will remain rather modest (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, which suggests that isolated wind damage with multicell clusters will be the main threat. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA today... An overnight MCS continues to move southeastward into east TX and LA, though weak vertical shear has led to a cold pool dominated system with the deeper convection trailing well north of gust front. This MCS will likely continue to the northwest Gulf coast by late morning and offshore by early afternoon. There will be some potential for isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts, especially if there is any temporary/diurnal strengthening of the storms. However, the overall environment and convective structure suggest that any wind threat should remain marginal. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist today over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MN/WI...LOWER MI/IN/OH...NORTHERN VA/MD...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ME...AND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the southern Mississippi. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Gradual pattern amplification is underway, with rising heights over the Rockies and a deepening, downstream trough from MB to the upper Great Lakes. A primary shortwave trough will dig southeastward from ND to WI by tonight, accompanied by cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates below the 500 mb pressure level. Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther east, a lead shortwave trough will move generally eastward from IA/WI toward Lower MI and northwest OH by this afternoon. An associated, weak surface trough/cold front will accompany the midlevel trough into the OH Valley, which will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Pockets of surface heating will boost afternoon temperatures to near 80 F with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s, which will support MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. However, deep-layer vertical shear will remain rather modest (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, which suggests that isolated wind damage with multicell clusters will be the main threat. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA today... An overnight MCS continues to move southeastward into east TX and LA, though weak vertical shear has led to a cold pool dominated system with the deeper convection trailing well north of gust front. This MCS will likely continue to the northwest Gulf coast by late morning and offshore by early afternoon. There will be some potential for isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts, especially if there is any temporary/diurnal strengthening of the storms. However, the overall environment and convective structure suggest that any wind threat should remain marginal. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist today over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MN/WI...LOWER MI/IN/OH...NORTHERN VA/MD...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ME...AND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the southern Mississippi. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Gradual pattern amplification is underway, with rising heights over the Rockies and a deepening, downstream trough from MB to the upper Great Lakes. A primary shortwave trough will dig southeastward from ND to WI by tonight, accompanied by cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates below the 500 mb pressure level. Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther east, a lead shortwave trough will move generally eastward from IA/WI toward Lower MI and northwest OH by this afternoon. An associated, weak surface trough/cold front will accompany the midlevel trough into the OH Valley, which will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Pockets of surface heating will boost afternoon temperatures to near 80 F with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s, which will support MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. However, deep-layer vertical shear will remain rather modest (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, which suggests that isolated wind damage with multicell clusters will be the main threat. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA today... An overnight MCS continues to move southeastward into east TX and LA, though weak vertical shear has led to a cold pool dominated system with the deeper convection trailing well north of gust front. This MCS will likely continue to the northwest Gulf coast by late morning and offshore by early afternoon. There will be some potential for isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts, especially if there is any temporary/diurnal strengthening of the storms. However, the overall environment and convective structure suggest that any wind threat should remain marginal. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist today over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MN/WI...LOWER MI/IN/OH...NORTHERN VA/MD...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ME...AND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the southern Mississippi. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Gradual pattern amplification is underway, with rising heights over the Rockies and a deepening, downstream trough from MB to the upper Great Lakes. A primary shortwave trough will dig southeastward from ND to WI by tonight, accompanied by cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates below the 500 mb pressure level. Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther east, a lead shortwave trough will move generally eastward from IA/WI toward Lower MI and northwest OH by this afternoon. An associated, weak surface trough/cold front will accompany the midlevel trough into the OH Valley, which will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Pockets of surface heating will boost afternoon temperatures to near 80 F with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s, which will support MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. However, deep-layer vertical shear will remain rather modest (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, which suggests that isolated wind damage with multicell clusters will be the main threat. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA today... An overnight MCS continues to move southeastward into east TX and LA, though weak vertical shear has led to a cold pool dominated system with the deeper convection trailing well north of gust front. This MCS will likely continue to the northwest Gulf coast by late morning and offshore by early afternoon. There will be some potential for isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts, especially if there is any temporary/diurnal strengthening of the storms. However, the overall environment and convective structure suggest that any wind threat should remain marginal. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist today over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MN/WI...LOWER MI/IN/OH...NORTHERN VA/MD...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ME...AND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the southern Mississippi. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Gradual pattern amplification is underway, with rising heights over the Rockies and a deepening, downstream trough from MB to the upper Great Lakes. A primary shortwave trough will dig southeastward from ND to WI by tonight, accompanied by cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates below the 500 mb pressure level. Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther east, a lead shortwave trough will move generally eastward from IA/WI toward Lower MI and northwest OH by this afternoon. An associated, weak surface trough/cold front will accompany the midlevel trough into the OH Valley, which will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Pockets of surface heating will boost afternoon temperatures to near 80 F with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s, which will support MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. However, deep-layer vertical shear will remain rather modest (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, which suggests that isolated wind damage with multicell clusters will be the main threat. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA today... An overnight MCS continues to move southeastward into east TX and LA, though weak vertical shear has led to a cold pool dominated system with the deeper convection trailing well north of gust front. This MCS will likely continue to the northwest Gulf coast by late morning and offshore by early afternoon. There will be some potential for isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts, especially if there is any temporary/diurnal strengthening of the storms. However, the overall environment and convective structure suggest that any wind threat should remain marginal. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist today over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/05/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large upper cyclone that is expected to persist across southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS throughout the end of the week will likely begin breaking down on D4/Saturday, when a series of shortwave troughs begin progressing through its southern periphery. The evolution of these shortwaves is expected to induce a more progressive character to this cyclone while also amplifying the troughing across the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. This upper troughing is then forecast to shift eastward off the East Coast on D6/Monday. The evolution of this cyclone will encourage a southward push of continental air across the central Plains and Mid MS/OH Valleys on D4/Saturday, likely continuing southward across the southern Plains and much of the Southeast on D5/Sunday. Upslope flow behind the front may contribute to thunderstorms across the central High Plains on D4/Saturday, with additional storms possible ahead of the front over the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as overall severe coverage limits predictability. Thunderstorms are possible along the front across the southern Plains and Southeast on D5/Sunday, but may trend towards a more anafrontal character given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector. Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday, resulting significant differences in forecast low-level moisture across the Plains and Southeast States. These difference lower forecast confidence and limit predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large upper cyclone that is expected to persist across southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS throughout the end of the week will likely begin breaking down on D4/Saturday, when a series of shortwave troughs begin progressing through its southern periphery. The evolution of these shortwaves is expected to induce a more progressive character to this cyclone while also amplifying the troughing across the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. This upper troughing is then forecast to shift eastward off the East Coast on D6/Monday. The evolution of this cyclone will encourage a southward push of continental air across the central Plains and Mid MS/OH Valleys on D4/Saturday, likely continuing southward across the southern Plains and much of the Southeast on D5/Sunday. Upslope flow behind the front may contribute to thunderstorms across the central High Plains on D4/Saturday, with additional storms possible ahead of the front over the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as overall severe coverage limits predictability. Thunderstorms are possible along the front across the southern Plains and Southeast on D5/Sunday, but may trend towards a more anafrontal character given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector. Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday, resulting significant differences in forecast low-level moisture across the Plains and Southeast States. These difference lower forecast confidence and limit predictability. Read more