Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z An additional isolated dry thunder area was included for northern NV and portions of the Great Basin this afternoon/early evening. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough and sufficient moisture aloft could support a few instances of dry lightning for the aforementioned region, south of the more significant precipitation cores and less receptive fuels found over far southern OR and ID. Further south into the High Plains of NM, CO, and near the Davis Mountains in TX, the dry thunder area was extended slightly east and south. A weak cold front and orographic ascent are expected here, where inverted V sounding profiles and receptive fuels will be present. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to build quickly over the western and Southwestern US today and tonight. To the east, a broad upper trough will swing eastward over the northeastern CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft develops over the southeastern US. Ridging will keep winds relatively light, but a backdoor cold front over the Southwest may support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the upper ridge, low-level moisture will continue to move westward into the southern Rockies supporting weak buoyancy. Very warm temperatures during the afternoon and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorms from portions of AZ into the higher terrain of southern/central NM. Confidence in storm coverage remains low owing to limited forcing for ascent from the expanding upper ridge. However, with model soundings showing well-mixed boundary layers below the weak buoyancy, any storms that do form will likely be dry. Area fuels are receptive to lightning ignitions, and while confidence in storm coverage is not overly high, the potential for ignitions appears justified to support an IsoDryT area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible into parts of the southern FL peninsula this afternoon and evening. Very dry area fuels are receptive to ignitions from lightning. Storms are expected to be fairly efficient in producing wetting rains given PWATS over 1.5 inches, but sporadic lightning outside of the stronger cores may still have some potential for ignitions given the state of current fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z An additional isolated dry thunder area was included for northern NV and portions of the Great Basin this afternoon/early evening. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough and sufficient moisture aloft could support a few instances of dry lightning for the aforementioned region, south of the more significant precipitation cores and less receptive fuels found over far southern OR and ID. Further south into the High Plains of NM, CO, and near the Davis Mountains in TX, the dry thunder area was extended slightly east and south. A weak cold front and orographic ascent are expected here, where inverted V sounding profiles and receptive fuels will be present. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to build quickly over the western and Southwestern US today and tonight. To the east, a broad upper trough will swing eastward over the northeastern CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft develops over the southeastern US. Ridging will keep winds relatively light, but a backdoor cold front over the Southwest may support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the upper ridge, low-level moisture will continue to move westward into the southern Rockies supporting weak buoyancy. Very warm temperatures during the afternoon and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorms from portions of AZ into the higher terrain of southern/central NM. Confidence in storm coverage remains low owing to limited forcing for ascent from the expanding upper ridge. However, with model soundings showing well-mixed boundary layers below the weak buoyancy, any storms that do form will likely be dry. Area fuels are receptive to lightning ignitions, and while confidence in storm coverage is not overly high, the potential for ignitions appears justified to support an IsoDryT area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible into parts of the southern FL peninsula this afternoon and evening. Very dry area fuels are receptive to ignitions from lightning. Storms are expected to be fairly efficient in producing wetting rains given PWATS over 1.5 inches, but sporadic lightning outside of the stronger cores may still have some potential for ignitions given the state of current fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z An additional isolated dry thunder area was included for northern NV and portions of the Great Basin this afternoon/early evening. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough and sufficient moisture aloft could support a few instances of dry lightning for the aforementioned region, south of the more significant precipitation cores and less receptive fuels found over far southern OR and ID. Further south into the High Plains of NM, CO, and near the Davis Mountains in TX, the dry thunder area was extended slightly east and south. A weak cold front and orographic ascent are expected here, where inverted V sounding profiles and receptive fuels will be present. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to build quickly over the western and Southwestern US today and tonight. To the east, a broad upper trough will swing eastward over the northeastern CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft develops over the southeastern US. Ridging will keep winds relatively light, but a backdoor cold front over the Southwest may support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the upper ridge, low-level moisture will continue to move westward into the southern Rockies supporting weak buoyancy. Very warm temperatures during the afternoon and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorms from portions of AZ into the higher terrain of southern/central NM. Confidence in storm coverage remains low owing to limited forcing for ascent from the expanding upper ridge. However, with model soundings showing well-mixed boundary layers below the weak buoyancy, any storms that do form will likely be dry. Area fuels are receptive to lightning ignitions, and while confidence in storm coverage is not overly high, the potential for ignitions appears justified to support an IsoDryT area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible into parts of the southern FL peninsula this afternoon and evening. Very dry area fuels are receptive to ignitions from lightning. Storms are expected to be fairly efficient in producing wetting rains given PWATS over 1.5 inches, but sporadic lightning outside of the stronger cores may still have some potential for ignitions given the state of current fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ..Smith/Squitieri.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ..Smith/Squitieri.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ..Smith/Squitieri.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ..Smith/Squitieri.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ..Smith/Squitieri.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ..Smith/Squitieri.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ..Smith/Squitieri.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ..Smith/Squitieri.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ..Smith/Squitieri.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ..Smith/Squitieri.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ..Smith/Squitieri.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible this afternoon/evening across western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from eastern New York into the Carolinas, and isolated wind damage/hail may also occur across the central/east central Florida peninsula. ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... In the wake of a midlevel low over the upper Great Lakes, a weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ...East central FL this afternoon... The Atlantic coast sea breeze will likely be favored this afternoon for thunderstorm development, within a weak background westerly flow regime. Strong surface heating across the central peninsula, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s, and midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will result in MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts) in an environment with steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE > 1000 J/kg. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A pronounced midlevel trough will progress eastward from the Great Lakes to NY/PA by this evening, and it will be accompanied by a surface cold front and pre-frontal trough in the lee of the higher terrain. Midlevel lapse rates in the warm sector will not be steep, but surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg by early-mid afternoon, when storm development is expected along the surface boundaries. There will be some increase in midlevel flow over the surface warm sector this afternoon (30+ kt flow near 500 mb), which will favor primarily multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage (50-60 mph gusts). Somewhat greater storm coverage is expected in the vicinity of eastern NY where forcing for ascent will be more focused, with more scattered storms farther south into the Carolinas. Despite weaker deep-layer vertical shear with southward extent toward the Carolinas, modest enhancement of flow in the 700-500 mb layer (30+ kt) and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated downbursts with wind damage. Portions of this area will be re-evaluated in later outlooks for higher wind probabilities, primarily for sufficient cloud breaks and resultant destabilization. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible this afternoon/evening across western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from eastern New York into the Carolinas, and isolated wind damage/hail may also occur across the central/east central Florida peninsula. ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... In the wake of a midlevel low over the upper Great Lakes, a weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ...East central FL this afternoon... The Atlantic coast sea breeze will likely be favored this afternoon for thunderstorm development, within a weak background westerly flow regime. Strong surface heating across the central peninsula, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s, and midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will result in MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts) in an environment with steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE > 1000 J/kg. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A pronounced midlevel trough will progress eastward from the Great Lakes to NY/PA by this evening, and it will be accompanied by a surface cold front and pre-frontal trough in the lee of the higher terrain. Midlevel lapse rates in the warm sector will not be steep, but surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg by early-mid afternoon, when storm development is expected along the surface boundaries. There will be some increase in midlevel flow over the surface warm sector this afternoon (30+ kt flow near 500 mb), which will favor primarily multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage (50-60 mph gusts). Somewhat greater storm coverage is expected in the vicinity of eastern NY where forcing for ascent will be more focused, with more scattered storms farther south into the Carolinas. Despite weaker deep-layer vertical shear with southward extent toward the Carolinas, modest enhancement of flow in the 700-500 mb layer (30+ kt) and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated downbursts with wind damage. Portions of this area will be re-evaluated in later outlooks for higher wind probabilities, primarily for sufficient cloud breaks and resultant destabilization. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible this afternoon/evening across western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from eastern New York into the Carolinas, and isolated wind damage/hail may also occur across the central/east central Florida peninsula. ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... In the wake of a midlevel low over the upper Great Lakes, a weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ...East central FL this afternoon... The Atlantic coast sea breeze will likely be favored this afternoon for thunderstorm development, within a weak background westerly flow regime. Strong surface heating across the central peninsula, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s, and midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will result in MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts) in an environment with steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE > 1000 J/kg. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A pronounced midlevel trough will progress eastward from the Great Lakes to NY/PA by this evening, and it will be accompanied by a surface cold front and pre-frontal trough in the lee of the higher terrain. Midlevel lapse rates in the warm sector will not be steep, but surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg by early-mid afternoon, when storm development is expected along the surface boundaries. There will be some increase in midlevel flow over the surface warm sector this afternoon (30+ kt flow near 500 mb), which will favor primarily multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage (50-60 mph gusts). Somewhat greater storm coverage is expected in the vicinity of eastern NY where forcing for ascent will be more focused, with more scattered storms farther south into the Carolinas. Despite weaker deep-layer vertical shear with southward extent toward the Carolinas, modest enhancement of flow in the 700-500 mb layer (30+ kt) and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated downbursts with wind damage. Portions of this area will be re-evaluated in later outlooks for higher wind probabilities, primarily for sufficient cloud breaks and resultant destabilization. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible this afternoon/evening across western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from eastern New York into the Carolinas, and isolated wind damage/hail may also occur across the central/east central Florida peninsula. ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... In the wake of a midlevel low over the upper Great Lakes, a weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ...East central FL this afternoon... The Atlantic coast sea breeze will likely be favored this afternoon for thunderstorm development, within a weak background westerly flow regime. Strong surface heating across the central peninsula, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s, and midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will result in MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts) in an environment with steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE > 1000 J/kg. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A pronounced midlevel trough will progress eastward from the Great Lakes to NY/PA by this evening, and it will be accompanied by a surface cold front and pre-frontal trough in the lee of the higher terrain. Midlevel lapse rates in the warm sector will not be steep, but surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg by early-mid afternoon, when storm development is expected along the surface boundaries. There will be some increase in midlevel flow over the surface warm sector this afternoon (30+ kt flow near 500 mb), which will favor primarily multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage (50-60 mph gusts). Somewhat greater storm coverage is expected in the vicinity of eastern NY where forcing for ascent will be more focused, with more scattered storms farther south into the Carolinas. Despite weaker deep-layer vertical shear with southward extent toward the Carolinas, modest enhancement of flow in the 700-500 mb layer (30+ kt) and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated downbursts with wind damage. Portions of this area will be re-evaluated in later outlooks for higher wind probabilities, primarily for sufficient cloud breaks and resultant destabilization. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/06/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance has trended towards better agreement on the upper pattern from D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the base of a parent upper trough over the northeast CONUS and Ontario/Quebec, with this parent upper trough gradually shifting eastward. Upper ridging is anticipated west of the this troughing, beginning over the Plains and Canadian Prairies on D4/Sunday before gradually shifting eastward. By early D6/Tuesday, general expectation is that the upper trough will extend along the East Coast with ridging to its west from the Mid MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes into central/eastern Ontario and Quebec. This evolution would place much of the stronger mid-level flow to the north and east of the better low-level moisture, which is expected to gradually shift south as a cold front moves through the OH/TN Valleys and central Plains on D4/Sunday. The front will likely continue into the Southeast on D5/Monday, while stalling across TX. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, but given the stronger flow will be displaced north, any severe will likely be dictated by less predictable mesoscale factors. Moderate low-level moisture is expected to be in place over the High Plains from D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. Thunderstorms are possible over this region both of these days, but notable uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity exists across the southern and central High Plains. Greater coverage is expected across the northern High Plains on D5/Monday when a northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress through the region. Uncertain timing of this wave and its associated cold front as well as uncertainty regarding the moisture quality within the warm sector limit predictability. Similar uncertainties exist on D6/Tuesday across the central Plains and Mid/Lower MO Valley as the shortwave trough and associated front continue eastward/southeastward. Upper ridging will likely move into the Plains in the wake of this northern-stream shortwave trough, with some potential for troughing to enter the Plains during the latter half of the week. Guidance differs with the strength and timing of these features, limiting forecast confidence. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance has trended towards better agreement on the upper pattern from D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the base of a parent upper trough over the northeast CONUS and Ontario/Quebec, with this parent upper trough gradually shifting eastward. Upper ridging is anticipated west of the this troughing, beginning over the Plains and Canadian Prairies on D4/Sunday before gradually shifting eastward. By early D6/Tuesday, general expectation is that the upper trough will extend along the East Coast with ridging to its west from the Mid MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes into central/eastern Ontario and Quebec. This evolution would place much of the stronger mid-level flow to the north and east of the better low-level moisture, which is expected to gradually shift south as a cold front moves through the OH/TN Valleys and central Plains on D4/Sunday. The front will likely continue into the Southeast on D5/Monday, while stalling across TX. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, but given the stronger flow will be displaced north, any severe will likely be dictated by less predictable mesoscale factors. Moderate low-level moisture is expected to be in place over the High Plains from D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. Thunderstorms are possible over this region both of these days, but notable uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity exists across the southern and central High Plains. Greater coverage is expected across the northern High Plains on D5/Monday when a northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress through the region. Uncertain timing of this wave and its associated cold front as well as uncertainty regarding the moisture quality within the warm sector limit predictability. Similar uncertainties exist on D6/Tuesday across the central Plains and Mid/Lower MO Valley as the shortwave trough and associated front continue eastward/southeastward. Upper ridging will likely move into the Plains in the wake of this northern-stream shortwave trough, with some potential for troughing to enter the Plains during the latter half of the week. Guidance differs with the strength and timing of these features, limiting forecast confidence. Read more