Severe Storms

MD 1179 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN MD...NORTHERN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 1179 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0917 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Areas affected...far northeastern MD...northern DE and southern NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060217Z - 060315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The ongoing cluster of storms near the MD/DE border may continue east with the risk for an isolated tornado or damaging gust this evening. DISCUSSION...As of 0210 UTC regional radar analysis showed a cluster of low topped storms near the MD/DE border. Thee storms have retained transient supercell characteristics near a subtle warm frontal zone across northern DelMarVa. Ahead of these storms, SPC mesoanalysis shows around 500-1000 J/kg of residual MUCAPE sufficient for continued updraft maintenance. Low-level shear remains favorable for some storm-scale rotation with KDOX VAD showing 0-1km SRH of 250-300 m2/s2. While storms have shown less intensity with time, the environment ahead of them remains conditionally favorable for a brief tornado or isolated damaging gusts for a couple more hours this evening. The exact eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as nocturnal stabilization has begun with the loss of diurnal heating. However, a very moist low-level environment (dewpoints in the 70s F) may slow stabilization and allow storms to remain near surface-based into parts of eastern DE and southern NJ. ..Lyons/Bunting.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX... LAT...LON 39137579 39227615 39357629 39507623 39647603 39717568 39747525 39667496 39567474 39457464 39287476 39107488 39067499 39057509 39077543 39137579 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SEVERAL REGIONS OF THE CONUS THIS EVENING...FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Rio Grande Valley of Texas, and northern Mississippi region. ...01z Update... Strong 500mb speed max is digging southeast across the Dakotas toward northern IL early this evening. Steep lapse rates and weak buoyancy are noted north of the jet across southern MN into central WI. 00z sounding from MPX supports this with SBCAPE around 350 J/kg and deep west-northwesterly flow. Numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms have developed within this regime and gusty winds are common with this convection. This trend will continue for the next several hours into WI before boundary-layer cooling weakens low-level lapse rates. Downstream across the OH Valley into the Delmarva, notable short-wave trough is progressing across southeast MI/OH. Veered LLJ has responded to this feature across the Mid-Atlantic which is aiding low-level warm advection into the Delmarva. A corridor of scattered supercells has evolved along the warm front draped across the Delmarva and this activity will pose some brief tornado risk along with the threat for damaging winds as it spreads across northern DE into southern NJ over the next few hours. Otherwise, gusty winds will be the primary concern with convection as it progresses across the upper OH Valley this evening. An MCS has matured over the central Gulf States early this evening. Latest radar data suggests an organized strong squall line will advance along the leading edge of this complex across northern AL into southern portions of TN later this evening. Some increase in 1km winds is noted across this region so this activity should be maintained for the next several hours as it spreads downstream. Have adjusted severe wind probabilities ahead of the MCS to account for this threat. BRO/CRP soundings are typically capped with high PW values this evening. However, very warm boundary-layer temperatures have contributed to weak CINH and large instability across the middle Rio Grande Valley. Isolated convection should propagate south along the international border with an attendant threat for hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SEVERAL REGIONS OF THE CONUS THIS EVENING...FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Rio Grande Valley of Texas, and northern Mississippi region. ...01z Update... Strong 500mb speed max is digging southeast across the Dakotas toward northern IL early this evening. Steep lapse rates and weak buoyancy are noted north of the jet across southern MN into central WI. 00z sounding from MPX supports this with SBCAPE around 350 J/kg and deep west-northwesterly flow. Numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms have developed within this regime and gusty winds are common with this convection. This trend will continue for the next several hours into WI before boundary-layer cooling weakens low-level lapse rates. Downstream across the OH Valley into the Delmarva, notable short-wave trough is progressing across southeast MI/OH. Veered LLJ has responded to this feature across the Mid-Atlantic which is aiding low-level warm advection into the Delmarva. A corridor of scattered supercells has evolved along the warm front draped across the Delmarva and this activity will pose some brief tornado risk along with the threat for damaging winds as it spreads across northern DE into southern NJ over the next few hours. Otherwise, gusty winds will be the primary concern with convection as it progresses across the upper OH Valley this evening. An MCS has matured over the central Gulf States early this evening. Latest radar data suggests an organized strong squall line will advance along the leading edge of this complex across northern AL into southern portions of TN later this evening. Some increase in 1km winds is noted across this region so this activity should be maintained for the next several hours as it spreads downstream. Have adjusted severe wind probabilities ahead of the MCS to account for this threat. BRO/CRP soundings are typically capped with high PW values this evening. However, very warm boundary-layer temperatures have contributed to weak CINH and large instability across the middle Rio Grande Valley. Isolated convection should propagate south along the international border with an attendant threat for hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SEVERAL REGIONS OF THE CONUS THIS EVENING...FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Rio Grande Valley of Texas, and northern Mississippi region. ...01z Update... Strong 500mb speed max is digging southeast across the Dakotas toward northern IL early this evening. Steep lapse rates and weak buoyancy are noted north of the jet across southern MN into central WI. 00z sounding from MPX supports this with SBCAPE around 350 J/kg and deep west-northwesterly flow. Numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms have developed within this regime and gusty winds are common with this convection. This trend will continue for the next several hours into WI before boundary-layer cooling weakens low-level lapse rates. Downstream across the OH Valley into the Delmarva, notable short-wave trough is progressing across southeast MI/OH. Veered LLJ has responded to this feature across the Mid-Atlantic which is aiding low-level warm advection into the Delmarva. A corridor of scattered supercells has evolved along the warm front draped across the Delmarva and this activity will pose some brief tornado risk along with the threat for damaging winds as it spreads across northern DE into southern NJ over the next few hours. Otherwise, gusty winds will be the primary concern with convection as it progresses across the upper OH Valley this evening. An MCS has matured over the central Gulf States early this evening. Latest radar data suggests an organized strong squall line will advance along the leading edge of this complex across northern AL into southern portions of TN later this evening. Some increase in 1km winds is noted across this region so this activity should be maintained for the next several hours as it spreads downstream. Have adjusted severe wind probabilities ahead of the MCS to account for this threat. BRO/CRP soundings are typically capped with high PW values this evening. However, very warm boundary-layer temperatures have contributed to weak CINH and large instability across the middle Rio Grande Valley. Isolated convection should propagate south along the international border with an attendant threat for hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SEVERAL REGIONS OF THE CONUS THIS EVENING...FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Rio Grande Valley of Texas, and northern Mississippi region. ...01z Update... Strong 500mb speed max is digging southeast across the Dakotas toward northern IL early this evening. Steep lapse rates and weak buoyancy are noted north of the jet across southern MN into central WI. 00z sounding from MPX supports this with SBCAPE around 350 J/kg and deep west-northwesterly flow. Numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms have developed within this regime and gusty winds are common with this convection. This trend will continue for the next several hours into WI before boundary-layer cooling weakens low-level lapse rates. Downstream across the OH Valley into the Delmarva, notable short-wave trough is progressing across southeast MI/OH. Veered LLJ has responded to this feature across the Mid-Atlantic which is aiding low-level warm advection into the Delmarva. A corridor of scattered supercells has evolved along the warm front draped across the Delmarva and this activity will pose some brief tornado risk along with the threat for damaging winds as it spreads across northern DE into southern NJ over the next few hours. Otherwise, gusty winds will be the primary concern with convection as it progresses across the upper OH Valley this evening. An MCS has matured over the central Gulf States early this evening. Latest radar data suggests an organized strong squall line will advance along the leading edge of this complex across northern AL into southern portions of TN later this evening. Some increase in 1km winds is noted across this region so this activity should be maintained for the next several hours as it spreads downstream. Have adjusted severe wind probabilities ahead of the MCS to account for this threat. BRO/CRP soundings are typically capped with high PW values this evening. However, very warm boundary-layer temperatures have contributed to weak CINH and large instability across the middle Rio Grande Valley. Isolated convection should propagate south along the international border with an attendant threat for hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SEVERAL REGIONS OF THE CONUS THIS EVENING...FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Rio Grande Valley of Texas, and northern Mississippi region. ...01z Update... Strong 500mb speed max is digging southeast across the Dakotas toward northern IL early this evening. Steep lapse rates and weak buoyancy are noted north of the jet across southern MN into central WI. 00z sounding from MPX supports this with SBCAPE around 350 J/kg and deep west-northwesterly flow. Numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms have developed within this regime and gusty winds are common with this convection. This trend will continue for the next several hours into WI before boundary-layer cooling weakens low-level lapse rates. Downstream across the OH Valley into the Delmarva, notable short-wave trough is progressing across southeast MI/OH. Veered LLJ has responded to this feature across the Mid-Atlantic which is aiding low-level warm advection into the Delmarva. A corridor of scattered supercells has evolved along the warm front draped across the Delmarva and this activity will pose some brief tornado risk along with the threat for damaging winds as it spreads across northern DE into southern NJ over the next few hours. Otherwise, gusty winds will be the primary concern with convection as it progresses across the upper OH Valley this evening. An MCS has matured over the central Gulf States early this evening. Latest radar data suggests an organized strong squall line will advance along the leading edge of this complex across northern AL into southern portions of TN later this evening. Some increase in 1km winds is noted across this region so this activity should be maintained for the next several hours as it spreads downstream. Have adjusted severe wind probabilities ahead of the MCS to account for this threat. BRO/CRP soundings are typically capped with high PW values this evening. However, very warm boundary-layer temperatures have contributed to weak CINH and large instability across the middle Rio Grande Valley. Isolated convection should propagate south along the international border with an attendant threat for hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/06/2024 Read more

MD 1177 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST VA AND CENTRAL MD
Mesoscale Discussion 1177 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Areas affected...portions of far northeast VA and central MD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052313Z - 060045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Brief tornadoes will remain possible for another couple of hours with small supercells near the VA/MD border. Convective coverage should remain very isolated and a WW is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 2305 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a cluster of low-topped storms near the VA/MD border have taken on transient supercell characteristics. Several reports of funnel clouds and a brief tornado have been observed with theses storms over the last 90 min. The environment remains broadly favorable for convection with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, much of which is focused below 4 km. Deep-layer shear is not supportive of longer-lived supercells, but area VADs do show clockwise curved hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km. With a very moist air mass in place (low 70s F surface dewpoints) low cloud bases and strong low-level updrafts will allow for efficient stretching of stream-wise and ambient vorticity with these small storms. A brief tornado or two will remain possible for another couple of hours as these storms move east. Storms should gradually wane with the loss of diurnal heating. Given the limited convective coverage and the relatively transient nature of storm organization, a WW is not expected, though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Lyons/Bunting.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX... LAT...LON 39647655 39657614 39557603 39377603 39187611 38947632 38917645 38937689 38957720 38997742 39047754 39277754 39617716 39647655 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 5 23:32:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1178 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1178 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Areas affected...portions of western Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052330Z - 060030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts remain possible with a bowing linear segment for at least a couple more hours. However, the severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multicellular convection, amid a weak shear environment, has managed to organize into a bowing segment, with tree damage recently reported in Jasper County, MS. This linear segment should continue to progress northeastward toward an unstable airmass (characterized by 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) for at least a couple more hours. Until nocturnal cooling sets in, additional damaging gusts may accompany portions of the line. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB... LAT...LON 32718694 32248725 32048759 32078792 32318808 32508809 33488818 34088803 34168791 34208764 34188745 34048724 33808700 33438681 32718694 Read more

MD 1177 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST VA AND CENTRAL MD
Mesoscale Discussion 1177 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Areas affected...portions of far northeast VA and central MD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052313Z - 060045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Brief tornadoes will remain possible for another couple of hours with small supercells near the VA/MD border. Convective coverage should remain very isolated and a WW is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 2305 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a cluster of low-topped storms near the VA/MD border have taken on transient supercell characteristics. Several reports of funnel clouds and a brief tornado have been observed with theses storms over the last 90 min. The environment remains broadly favorable for convection with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, much of which is focused below 4 km. Deep-layer shear is not supportive of longer-lived supercells, but area VADs do show clockwise curved hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km. With a very moist air mass in place (low 70s F surface dewpoints) low cloud bases and strong low-level updrafts will allow for efficient stretching of stream-wise and ambient vorticity with these small storms. A brief tornado or two will remain possible for another couple of hours as these storms move east. Storms should gradually wane with the loss of diurnal heating. Given the limited convective coverage and the relatively transient nature of storm organization, a WW is not expected, though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Lyons/Bunting.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX... LAT...LON 39647655 39657614 39557603 39377603 39187611 38947632 38917645 38937689 38957720 38997742 39047754 39277754 39617716 39647655 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jun 5 22:32:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0523 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The large-scale pattern will change very little through D4/Saturday, with a mid to upper-trough over the eastern/northeastern CONUS, and relatively weak ridging extending through the Rockies and Pacific Northwest. By late this weekend into early next week, however, a north Pacific trough will move onshore, while a southern stream mid to upper-level cyclone progresses northeastward into the Southwest. Dry and hot conditions will persist across the Southwest in a deeply mixed air mass through most of the extended period, where receptive fuels will continue to become even more prone to fire starts and spread. However, only modest mid-level flow is anticipated throughout forecast, which should generally mitigate overall meteorological fire spread conditions due to a lack of higher momentum transfer from aloft. The exception may be on D8/Wednesday, as there is decent agreement within the extended ensembles of increasing mid-level flow accompanying a closed low moving onshore near southern CA. For D3/Friday, a couple of subtle shortwave troughs are expected to round the ridge over NM and southeast CO. Some isolated dry lightning may accompany these features across portions of northern NM, but current fuels and limited coverage do not warrant Critical probabilities at this time. A deepening lee surface low, and the resulting pressure gradient, will result in breezy, dry southerly surface winds across the High Plains of NM and the TX panhandle. An Elevated area may need to be introduced in future forecasts for these regions D3/Friday. By D4/Saturday localized elevated conditions, due to increasing surface winds, may develop across southwestern NM/Gila Mountains, and portions of central and eastern AZ. Early this week, wetting rains may help slow curing/worsening fuel conditions across the central and southern FL. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0523 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The large-scale pattern will change very little through D4/Saturday, with a mid to upper-trough over the eastern/northeastern CONUS, and relatively weak ridging extending through the Rockies and Pacific Northwest. By late this weekend into early next week, however, a north Pacific trough will move onshore, while a southern stream mid to upper-level cyclone progresses northeastward into the Southwest. Dry and hot conditions will persist across the Southwest in a deeply mixed air mass through most of the extended period, where receptive fuels will continue to become even more prone to fire starts and spread. However, only modest mid-level flow is anticipated throughout forecast, which should generally mitigate overall meteorological fire spread conditions due to a lack of higher momentum transfer from aloft. The exception may be on D8/Wednesday, as there is decent agreement within the extended ensembles of increasing mid-level flow accompanying a closed low moving onshore near southern CA. For D3/Friday, a couple of subtle shortwave troughs are expected to round the ridge over NM and southeast CO. Some isolated dry lightning may accompany these features across portions of northern NM, but current fuels and limited coverage do not warrant Critical probabilities at this time. A deepening lee surface low, and the resulting pressure gradient, will result in breezy, dry southerly surface winds across the High Plains of NM and the TX panhandle. An Elevated area may need to be introduced in future forecasts for these regions D3/Friday. By D4/Saturday localized elevated conditions, due to increasing surface winds, may develop across southwestern NM/Gila Mountains, and portions of central and eastern AZ. Early this week, wetting rains may help slow curing/worsening fuel conditions across the central and southern FL. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0523 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The large-scale pattern will change very little through D4/Saturday, with a mid to upper-trough over the eastern/northeastern CONUS, and relatively weak ridging extending through the Rockies and Pacific Northwest. By late this weekend into early next week, however, a north Pacific trough will move onshore, while a southern stream mid to upper-level cyclone progresses northeastward into the Southwest. Dry and hot conditions will persist across the Southwest in a deeply mixed air mass through most of the extended period, where receptive fuels will continue to become even more prone to fire starts and spread. However, only modest mid-level flow is anticipated throughout forecast, which should generally mitigate overall meteorological fire spread conditions due to a lack of higher momentum transfer from aloft. The exception may be on D8/Wednesday, as there is decent agreement within the extended ensembles of increasing mid-level flow accompanying a closed low moving onshore near southern CA. For D3/Friday, a couple of subtle shortwave troughs are expected to round the ridge over NM and southeast CO. Some isolated dry lightning may accompany these features across portions of northern NM, but current fuels and limited coverage do not warrant Critical probabilities at this time. A deepening lee surface low, and the resulting pressure gradient, will result in breezy, dry southerly surface winds across the High Plains of NM and the TX panhandle. An Elevated area may need to be introduced in future forecasts for these regions D3/Friday. By D4/Saturday localized elevated conditions, due to increasing surface winds, may develop across southwestern NM/Gila Mountains, and portions of central and eastern AZ. Early this week, wetting rains may help slow curing/worsening fuel conditions across the central and southern FL. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0523 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The large-scale pattern will change very little through D4/Saturday, with a mid to upper-trough over the eastern/northeastern CONUS, and relatively weak ridging extending through the Rockies and Pacific Northwest. By late this weekend into early next week, however, a north Pacific trough will move onshore, while a southern stream mid to upper-level cyclone progresses northeastward into the Southwest. Dry and hot conditions will persist across the Southwest in a deeply mixed air mass through most of the extended period, where receptive fuels will continue to become even more prone to fire starts and spread. However, only modest mid-level flow is anticipated throughout forecast, which should generally mitigate overall meteorological fire spread conditions due to a lack of higher momentum transfer from aloft. The exception may be on D8/Wednesday, as there is decent agreement within the extended ensembles of increasing mid-level flow accompanying a closed low moving onshore near southern CA. For D3/Friday, a couple of subtle shortwave troughs are expected to round the ridge over NM and southeast CO. Some isolated dry lightning may accompany these features across portions of northern NM, but current fuels and limited coverage do not warrant Critical probabilities at this time. A deepening lee surface low, and the resulting pressure gradient, will result in breezy, dry southerly surface winds across the High Plains of NM and the TX panhandle. An Elevated area may need to be introduced in future forecasts for these regions D3/Friday. By D4/Saturday localized elevated conditions, due to increasing surface winds, may develop across southwestern NM/Gila Mountains, and portions of central and eastern AZ. Early this week, wetting rains may help slow curing/worsening fuel conditions across the central and southern FL. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0523 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The large-scale pattern will change very little through D4/Saturday, with a mid to upper-trough over the eastern/northeastern CONUS, and relatively weak ridging extending through the Rockies and Pacific Northwest. By late this weekend into early next week, however, a north Pacific trough will move onshore, while a southern stream mid to upper-level cyclone progresses northeastward into the Southwest. Dry and hot conditions will persist across the Southwest in a deeply mixed air mass through most of the extended period, where receptive fuels will continue to become even more prone to fire starts and spread. However, only modest mid-level flow is anticipated throughout forecast, which should generally mitigate overall meteorological fire spread conditions due to a lack of higher momentum transfer from aloft. The exception may be on D8/Wednesday, as there is decent agreement within the extended ensembles of increasing mid-level flow accompanying a closed low moving onshore near southern CA. For D3/Friday, a couple of subtle shortwave troughs are expected to round the ridge over NM and southeast CO. Some isolated dry lightning may accompany these features across portions of northern NM, but current fuels and limited coverage do not warrant Critical probabilities at this time. A deepening lee surface low, and the resulting pressure gradient, will result in breezy, dry southerly surface winds across the High Plains of NM and the TX panhandle. An Elevated area may need to be introduced in future forecasts for these regions D3/Friday. By D4/Saturday localized elevated conditions, due to increasing surface winds, may develop across southwestern NM/Gila Mountains, and portions of central and eastern AZ. Early this week, wetting rains may help slow curing/worsening fuel conditions across the central and southern FL. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0523 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The large-scale pattern will change very little through D4/Saturday, with a mid to upper-trough over the eastern/northeastern CONUS, and relatively weak ridging extending through the Rockies and Pacific Northwest. By late this weekend into early next week, however, a north Pacific trough will move onshore, while a southern stream mid to upper-level cyclone progresses northeastward into the Southwest. Dry and hot conditions will persist across the Southwest in a deeply mixed air mass through most of the extended period, where receptive fuels will continue to become even more prone to fire starts and spread. However, only modest mid-level flow is anticipated throughout forecast, which should generally mitigate overall meteorological fire spread conditions due to a lack of higher momentum transfer from aloft. The exception may be on D8/Wednesday, as there is decent agreement within the extended ensembles of increasing mid-level flow accompanying a closed low moving onshore near southern CA. For D3/Friday, a couple of subtle shortwave troughs are expected to round the ridge over NM and southeast CO. Some isolated dry lightning may accompany these features across portions of northern NM, but current fuels and limited coverage do not warrant Critical probabilities at this time. A deepening lee surface low, and the resulting pressure gradient, will result in breezy, dry southerly surface winds across the High Plains of NM and the TX panhandle. An Elevated area may need to be introduced in future forecasts for these regions D3/Friday. By D4/Saturday localized elevated conditions, due to increasing surface winds, may develop across southwestern NM/Gila Mountains, and portions of central and eastern AZ. Early this week, wetting rains may help slow curing/worsening fuel conditions across the central and southern FL. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0523 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The large-scale pattern will change very little through D4/Saturday, with a mid to upper-trough over the eastern/northeastern CONUS, and relatively weak ridging extending through the Rockies and Pacific Northwest. By late this weekend into early next week, however, a north Pacific trough will move onshore, while a southern stream mid to upper-level cyclone progresses northeastward into the Southwest. Dry and hot conditions will persist across the Southwest in a deeply mixed air mass through most of the extended period, where receptive fuels will continue to become even more prone to fire starts and spread. However, only modest mid-level flow is anticipated throughout forecast, which should generally mitigate overall meteorological fire spread conditions due to a lack of higher momentum transfer from aloft. The exception may be on D8/Wednesday, as there is decent agreement within the extended ensembles of increasing mid-level flow accompanying a closed low moving onshore near southern CA. For D3/Friday, a couple of subtle shortwave troughs are expected to round the ridge over NM and southeast CO. Some isolated dry lightning may accompany these features across portions of northern NM, but current fuels and limited coverage do not warrant Critical probabilities at this time. A deepening lee surface low, and the resulting pressure gradient, will result in breezy, dry southerly surface winds across the High Plains of NM and the TX panhandle. An Elevated area may need to be introduced in future forecasts for these regions D3/Friday. By D4/Saturday localized elevated conditions, due to increasing surface winds, may develop across southwestern NM/Gila Mountains, and portions of central and eastern AZ. Early this week, wetting rains may help slow curing/worsening fuel conditions across the central and southern FL. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0523 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The large-scale pattern will change very little through D4/Saturday, with a mid to upper-trough over the eastern/northeastern CONUS, and relatively weak ridging extending through the Rockies and Pacific Northwest. By late this weekend into early next week, however, a north Pacific trough will move onshore, while a southern stream mid to upper-level cyclone progresses northeastward into the Southwest. Dry and hot conditions will persist across the Southwest in a deeply mixed air mass through most of the extended period, where receptive fuels will continue to become even more prone to fire starts and spread. However, only modest mid-level flow is anticipated throughout forecast, which should generally mitigate overall meteorological fire spread conditions due to a lack of higher momentum transfer from aloft. The exception may be on D8/Wednesday, as there is decent agreement within the extended ensembles of increasing mid-level flow accompanying a closed low moving onshore near southern CA. For D3/Friday, a couple of subtle shortwave troughs are expected to round the ridge over NM and southeast CO. Some isolated dry lightning may accompany these features across portions of northern NM, but current fuels and limited coverage do not warrant Critical probabilities at this time. A deepening lee surface low, and the resulting pressure gradient, will result in breezy, dry southerly surface winds across the High Plains of NM and the TX panhandle. An Elevated area may need to be introduced in future forecasts for these regions D3/Friday. By D4/Saturday localized elevated conditions, due to increasing surface winds, may develop across southwestern NM/Gila Mountains, and portions of central and eastern AZ. Early this week, wetting rains may help slow curing/worsening fuel conditions across the central and southern FL. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The large-scale pattern will change very little through D4/Saturday, with a mid to upper-trough over the eastern/northeastern CONUS, and relatively weak ridging extending through the Rockies and Pacific Northwest. By late this weekend into early next week, however, a north Pacific trough will move onshore, while a southern stream mid to upper-level cyclone progresses northeastward into the Southwest. Dry and hot conditions will persist across the Southwest in a deeply mixed air mass through most of the extended period, where receptive fuels will continue to become even more prone to fire starts and spread. However, only modest mid-level flow is anticipated throughout forecast, which should generally mitigate overall meteorological fire spread conditions due to a lack of higher momentum transfer from aloft. The exception may be on D8/Wednesday, as there is decent agreement within the extended ensembles of increasing mid-level flow accompanying a closed low moving onshore near southern CA. For D3/Friday, a couple of subtle shortwave troughs are expected to round the ridge over NM and southeast CO. Some isolated dry lightning may accompany these features across portions of northern NM, but current fuels and limited coverage do not warrant Critical probabilities at this time. A deepening lee surface low, and the resulting pressure gradient, will result in breezy, dry southerly surface winds across the High Plains of NM and the TX panhandle. An Elevated area may need to be introduced in future forecasts for these regions D3/Friday. By D4/Saturday localized elevated conditions, due to increasing surface winds, may develop across southwestern NM/Gila Mountains, and portions of central and eastern AZ. Early this week, wetting rains may help slow curing/worsening fuel conditions across the central and southern FL. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more